Lies Damn Lies and Police Statistics

Written By: - Date published: 10:43 am, June 6th, 2024 - 15 comments
Categories: crime, mark mitchell, national, police, same old national - Tags:

There should be an offence for Police Ministers seeking to mislead the public by the inappropriate use of police statistics.

Because this is what Mark Mitchell has engaged in.

On Tuesday night he was reported as saying at a meeting that police patrols had increased by 60%. He repeated that figure next morning on Radio New Zealand and was upset that RNZ’s presentation of the issue had been “unbalanced”.

From Melanie Earley at Radio New Zealand:

Mitchell told the crowd there had been a 58 percent increase in foot patrols around the city in the last six months. But one resident stood up and claimed that was “bollocks”.

“I can count on one hand the number of police I’ve seen on the beat in the last three years in the central city,” the man said and was met with a round of applause from the crowd.

He said last week he had to hold someone down who had stolen alcohol from an inner city supermarket until police arrived and that same day he said he dislocated his shoulder trying to chase a person who had stolen items from another store he was in.

When asked Mitchell was not able to talk about the detail of the data which clearly raised reporter’s interests.

Because when they checked it became clear that the 60% increase involved very selective use of data and was totally misleading.

From Radio New Zealand this morning:

Official police data shows foot patrols in Auckland are down, not up.

Police minister Mark Mitchell, on Wednesday’s Morning Report, lauded a 60 percent increase in foot patrols in the Auckland CBD in the six months since the government was elected to power.

But the raw figures give more context to his claims.

Police provided RNZ with the figures the minister was basing his claims on, and they show a 58 percent increase in foot patrols in March in the Auckland CBD, compared with October last year.

The figures show foot patrols in three parts of the CBD – Auckland Harbourside, Auckland Central West, and Auckland Central East.

Auckland Central West’s numbers more than doubled, from 300 patrols in October to 684 patrols in March, but in Auckland Central East the number of patrols actually dropped, from 192 to 178.

The March figures given to the minister were about a third higher than any other month, and appear to be an outlier.

According to official police data published online, across the entire Auckland City police district foot patrols dropped by 6 percent between October and April, from just over 1213 patrols in October to 1135 in April.

Cherry picking data and presenting it to suggest that that something is happening when it isn’t, how very National.

15 comments on “Lies Damn Lies and Police Statistics ”

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  1. Belladonna 1
    6 June 2024 at 10:53 am

    Not only the Minister, the Auckland Central Area Commander Inspector Grant Tetzlaff – claimed that foot patrols were up 'substantially' in his interview on Checkpoint last evening.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018941398/auckland-central-s-top-cop-says-big-increase-in-foot-patrols

  2. Mike the Lefty 2
    6 June 2024 at 11:04 am

    National's solution to (apparently) escalating street crime would make a good addition to the next edition of Ripley's Believe it or not.

    Like that programme, National puts out a steady stream of innuendo, questionable logic and dubious statistics intending to make the incredible and unbelievable look credible. National are serious about rising crime – we are increasing police numbers and getting tough on offenders – Believe it or not!

    Perhaps we will see the return of cardboard cut out police. I remember seeing them in a Farmers store years ago, can't quite remember when – I think it may have been in days of the Rogernome government. Someone might be able to correct me on that.

    • Patricia Bremner 2.1
      6 June 2024 at 11:20 am

      2007 and 2013 apparently lol. So under Helen Clarke and John Key. Annette King L and Gerry Brownlee N Minister of Transport.
      Placebo Police.

      • ianmac 2.1.1
        6 June 2024 at 6:59 pm

        I seem to remember a few decades ago that there were cardboard cutouts of policemen in public places and supermarkets – I think so anyway. I suppose the shoplifters stole them.

  3. Maurice 3
    6 June 2024 at 2:53 pm

    The Auckland Police will all be at the Marae searching for Census forms soon – that will put paid to the foot patrols.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 3.1
      11 June 2024 at 2:33 pm

      Those referrals are sent to the Police so they can bury them. Always have.

      John Banks claims of all donors were anonymous , even though Sky City and Dotcom said differently . It was sent to Police to investigate… who found nothing criminal from former Police minister It was only resurrected by a private prosecution , eventually taken on by Crown Law.

  4. Powerman 4
    6 June 2024 at 3:38 pm

    He thinks that the public is as stupid as he is. The meeting that he fronted with the Auckland business people was disquieting, the use of National Party banners was reminiscent of a Trump presentation, but Kiwis are not so easily fooled– as the audience member said his figures were bollocks.

  5. thinker 5
    6 June 2024 at 6:28 pm

    Another take from this is that when this kind of thing happened during the 80s, people bought the spin.

    Voter's brought up during the boomer years, good times but with the downside they were raised to think that what the government told them was the truth.

    Now, in the 2020s, a different generation represents the bulk of voters. Bombarded with media and the internet, they are much less likely to believe things just because someone important said so.

    But National, run by and fronted by boomers and mini-me boomers, still thinks if they say stuff, people will believe it. This, in my opinion, will plague them until a new generation rolls the establishment.

    • Kat 5.1
      6 June 2024 at 7:14 pm

      Well its always been a divided electorate with a certain percentage of swing voters in the middle that changed govts. Now that we have MMP well entrenched that middle percentage is more representative of the outliers, those on the fringes.

  6. adam 6
    6 June 2024 at 7:49 pm

    Take the job across the ditch cops, this lot are muppets.

  7. SPC 7
    7 June 2024 at 12:07 am

    No one who saw Luxon and Mitchell do a stand up together will be surprised at the dumb stuff they are capable of.

  8. mpledger 8
    7 June 2024 at 2:38 pm

    Why is Mitchell going on about this anyway? Is he trying to claim that he has had some effect on the police doing more foot patrols in the CBD? If so, it seems very odd because that sounds like an operational matter that he is not supposed to be interfering with.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 8.1
      11 June 2024 at 2:35 pm

      Cecil B DeMitchell …..get me some fake police patrols numbers and make it snappy