Miliband ko’s Johnson

18 comments on “Miliband ko’s Johnson ”

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1. Stuart Munro 1

   28 April 2015 at 1:45 am

   SNP is where the hope lies: a new Scottish renaissance is exactly what Britain needs. And a Labour party obliged to abandon the dark age neo-liberal superstitions is just the example NZ needs.
2. One Anonymous Bloke 2

   28 April 2015 at 6:59 am

   They all look and sound the same to me, although perhaps that’s because Boris Johnson never stops talking.
3. ropata 3

   28 April 2015 at 7:06 am

   Boris Johnson: another RW clown in the mold of FJK. The grinning face of bankster greed
4. Jan Rivers 4

   28 April 2015 at 8:03 am

   Priceless “The rich should pay as much tax as is consistent with a successful economy” from Boris Johnson. Specifically he didn’t say a fair amount!

   There is something about the UK election which has an echo here which is the right’s and some of the media’s assertion that a government formed by a smaller party would somehow lack legitimacy. Some right wing commentators have gone as far as to say (quite without foundation) that it would create a constitutional crisis. This is important in the UK for Labour and the SNP and here for Labour and Greens so it’s interesting to see the arguments play out.In addition. Other arguments deployed ‘show’ that the smaller parties in each case are not really progressive. in the UK it include finding information that ‘shows’ that the SNP are not a genuine progressive party and in NZ primarily that the Greens would readily be part of a National Party government.
5. tinfoilhat 5

   28 April 2015 at 9:25 am

   Meh…. Cameron, Clegg, Johnson, Milliband… a pox on all their houses.

   They’re all cut from the same cloth.
   • Bearded Git 5.1

     28 April 2015 at 10:51 am

     Except of the 3 Miliband didn’t go to a posh English public school (meaning private school).
     • Northsider 5.1.1

       29 April 2015 at 11:17 pm

       All five contenders for the Labour leadership went to Oxbridge. They are drawing from as narrow a gene pool as the Tories.
6. Tom Gould 6

   28 April 2015 at 1:11 pm

   Frankly, neither actually had anything to say, a couple of sniping too-clever-by-half ‘toffs’ scoring points only members of their respective ‘gentlemen’s clubs’ would understand? Haw-haw-haw, chaps. Another G&T anyone?
7. swordfish 7

   28 April 2015 at 1:17 pm

   The great thing for UK Labour is that FPP is working in their favour. The smart money’s on a Labour-led Government because:

   (1) The main ‘minor’ party favouring a Labour Govt / opposing a Tory Govt – the SNP – will receive far more seats than it would be entitled to under PR. It’ll take about 45-50% of the vote in Scotland but almost certainly more than 80% of seats (and no one’s ruling out 100%).

   (2) The minor parties most likely to form a coalition/support arrangement with the Tories – Lib Dems and, in particular, Ukip – will win far less seats than their vote would entitle them under PR. Ukip is on target to take at least 10% of the vote and possibly as much as 15% (They’re averaging around 14% at the moment) but probably only 1-5 seats (under PR, they’d be entitled to around 65 seats with 10% and 98 seats with 15%).
   (3) I haven’t checked recently but I think it was still the case not too long ago that Labour were doing disproportionately well in the key marginals.

   My only concerns:

   (1) The Tories are beginning to win as many polls as Labour. And every now and then a poll comes out with a 4-6 point Tory lead (like the Lord Ashcroft poll a couple of days ago). Probably outliers (the Lord Ashcrofts tend to favour the Tories just as Populus tends to favour Labour), but a bit nerve-racking.

   (2) After watching a few of the most recent BBC Question Times on Youtube, I do wish the senior Labour panellists would stop playing into Tory hands by vehemently attacking the SNP panellists. I appreciate that there’s an intense Labour-SNP competition over the Lab-held seats in Scotland and maybe Labour’s internal polling shows some sort of England-wide antipathy towards a Government supported by the SNP (although I haven’t seen any evidence of this and given the popularity of Nicola Sturgeon in UK-wide polls you’d have to wonder) – but they don’t seem to realise that most UK voters are smart enough to know that any Labour-led Government will need SNP support. And yet there’s Labour’s deputy leader, Harriet Harman, on BBC Question Time attacking the SNP as dangerous for Britain (as the Tories’ William Hague sits back with a big smile on his face, hardly believing the Tories’ luck at such tactical stupidity). Possibly because they have little-to-no experience of Coalition politics, UK Labour don’t seem to realise that voters react very badly to any disunity between future Government partners (albeit informal partners in this case). Labour really needs to take a broader view than just the competition in Scotland.
   • swordfish 7.1

     28 April 2015 at 2:03 pm

     “far fewer” not “far less”. ( I can be a bit of a git at times, bless me 🙂 )

     Great to see my old stomping-ground – the City of Lincoln – all set to swing Labour’s way. Lincoln’s long been a bellwether constituency, whichever Party takes the seat usually takes the UK. Back in 1983, when I first went to the UK in my late teens, I did some scrutineering for Labour in Lincoln on Election Day. As in Britain as a whole, the Lincoln Labour Party were solely interested in holding on to 2nd place, they knew there was no hope of winning. And, as in the UK, they just managed to do it.

     Oh and good to see you linking to The New Statesman’s MAY2015 site, Mike. By far the most impressive analysis/forecast model available.
   • DS 7.2

     28 April 2015 at 4:03 pm

     It also helps that Labour’s votes are distributed more efficiently (i.e. it wins low turnout urban seats). The Tories run up vast majorities where it doesn’t do them any good.

     Basically:

     – The Tories need to outpoll Labour by 5% to have a chance (they won by 7% last time, and still couldn’t get a majority).

     – Probably the most important seat in the entire country is Nick Clegg’s seat in Sheffield Hallam. Clegg will almost certainly be rolled by his MPs after the election, but a loss to Labour here (Ashcroft’s polls put Labour about 2% in front) makes it infinitely less likely that the Liberal Democrats will cuddle up to the Tories.

     – If Labour + SNP + Plaid Cymru (Wales) + Greens + SDLP (Northern Ireland) + Sylvia Hermon + George Galloway totals 323 or more, the Tories can’t govern. If that number is less than 323, the Tories might be able to stitch together a deal with the surviving Liberal Democrats, UKIP, and the DUP (Northern Ireland) but even that isn’t a sure-fire thing: UKIP and the Liberal Democrats hate each other. It’s actually not out the question that we might see an old-school Liberal Party split.
     • swordfish 7.2.1

       28 April 2015 at 6:13 pm

       Yeah, I was surprised to read that Clegg’s Sheffield Hallam is one of the wealthiest constituencies outside the south-east. Sheffield suburbs must be class-segregated to an unusual degree, with most of the employers/upper-middles concentrated in the one seat. I find it extraordinary that these former Public School boys like Clegg, bought up in London and the south-east with no connections to the north, get casually parachuted into Northern and Midlands seats without so much as a murmur from local voters.

       Reminds me of Blair in the north-east mining constituency of Sedgefield.
       Apparently, Blair use to go down to the local workingman’s club, roll up his sleeves and try to talk to his constituents like one of the locals. I can just imagine him chatting in a mock-Geordie accent. “Just took the lad down to St James Park to watch the Magpies demolish Man Utd, like. Awwww, it were Magic, mun !!!……Tomorrow, I’ll be taking the wife and barns off to Whitley Bay for a picnic, like. Awwww, it’s magic out there, like !!!” The horrendous upper middle-class, ex-boarding school ponce.

       That divide in the Lib Dems (with the social democratic wing strongly favouring a coalition with Labour) is also reflected among remaining Lib Dem voters. Haven’t seen any recent nationwide polls on Lib Dem voters’ coalition preferences but some recent polls in (roughly, from memory) 23 key marginals (by Lord Ashcroft) suggested that Lib Dem voters were relatively evenly split, with a slight majority preferring a Labour-led Government.
   • Northsider 7.3

     29 April 2015 at 5:53 pm

     Harriet Harman and many other Labour Leaders are twits when it comes to Scotland. Labour is DEAD in Scotland: nothing will revive it in the short term. They shoup;ld accepot that and strategise and message accordingly.

     The behaviour of the leadership will loose them England if they do not change their tune. The people of Scotland found an leftish alternative to Labour and have grabbed it with both hands.
     If well organised English regional “SNP copies” are formed or/and Len Cluskey and the Unions form a new left party the Labour England will fall like Labour Scotland.
8. ScottGN 8

   28 April 2015 at 5:41 pm

   National polls seem to be tending towards a small Tory lead now. However Labour is performing really well in seat rich areas like London where they’ve increased their lead over the Tories. The SNP have increased their lead in Scotland, they’re now polling at about 53%.
   • Bill Drees 8.1

     30 April 2015 at 8:04 am

     SNP will take every seat in Scotland.
     Labour will get roughly the same percentage as the Tories: 16-18%
     Sturgeon does not need to mention Independence: if every seat in Scotland is an SNP one then seperation has commenced.

     This is a bloodless revolution. Where is the party on the 8th May? The results will start around 11am on that Friday morning.
     • DS 8.1.1

       30 April 2015 at 5:43 pm

       Not sure. The SNP will likely get over 50 seats (out of 59), but getting all 59 is a different story. Orkney and Shetland, for one, will be a tough nut to crack.
9. Sable 9

   28 April 2015 at 8:20 pm

   One weasel taking a swipe at another. In my estimation neither are fit to run the UK.
10. adam 10

    28 April 2015 at 9:38 pm

    Is it just me or all the election analysis talking about bookies, odds and betting around the election – just a tad vulgar?

    I know we did it here last time – so if democracy just turns into another event like betting on horses – does anyone have a right to complain about voters not wanting to vote? Indeed it’s the strongest indication yet, that elections are completely pointless – when they become just another event, for gambling companies to make money.

    Democracy – we need more of it, not less! And we definitely don’t need it turned into a vulgar event – for those who thrive on speculation and deprivation to get their thrills.

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