Written By:
mickysavage - Date published:
12:52 pm, July 30th, 2017 - 21 comments
Categories: election 2017, national, Politics, same old national -
Tags:
National’s list has now been announced. And here it is.
1 | Bill English | List |
2 | Paula Bennett | Upper Harbour |
3 | David Carter | List |
4 | Steven Joyce | List |
5 | Gerry Brownlee | Ilam |
6 | Simon Bridges | Tauranga |
7 | Amy Adams | Selwyn |
8 | Jonathan Coleman | Northcote |
9 | Chris Finlayson | Rongotai |
10 | Michael Woodhouse | Dunedin North |
11 | Anne Tolley | East Coast |
12 | Nathan Guy | Otaki |
13 | Nikki Kaye | Auckland Central |
14 | Todd McClay | Rotorua |
15 | Nick Smith | Nelson |
16 | Judith Collins | Papakura |
17 | Maggie Barry | North Shore |
18 | Paul Goldsmith | Epsom |
19 | Louise Upston | Taupo |
20 | Alfred Ngaro | Te Atatu |
21 | Mark Mitchell | Rodney |
22 | Nicky Wagner | Christchurch Central |
23 | Jacqui Dean | Waitaki |
24 | David Bennett | Hamilton East |
25 | Tim Macindoe | Hamilton West |
26 | Scott Simpson | Coromandel |
27 | Jami-Lee Ross | Botany |
28 | Barbara Kuriger | Taranaki-King Country |
29 | Matt Doocey | Waimakariri |
30 | Brett Hudson | Ohariu |
31 | Melissa Lee | Mt Albert |
32 | Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi | Manukau East |
33 | Jian Yang | List |
34 | Parmjeet Parmar | Mt Roskill |
35 | Jonathan Young | New Plymouth |
36 | Joanne Hayes | Christchurch East |
37 | Ian McKelvie | Rangitikei |
38 | Simon O’Connor | Tamaki |
39 | Andrew Bayly | Hunua |
40 | Chris Bishop | Hutt South |
41 | Sarah Dowie | Invercargill |
42 | Nuk Korako | Port Hills |
43 | Todd Muller | Bay of Plenty |
44 | Maureen Pugh | West Coast Tasman |
45 | Shane Reti | Whangarei |
46 | Alastair Scott | Wairarapa |
47 | Stuart Smith | Kaikoura |
48 | Nicola Willis | Wellington Central |
49 | Agnes Loheni | Mangere |
50 | Paulo Garcia | New Lynn |
51 | Matt King | Northland |
52 | David Hiatt | Wigram |
53 | Matthew Gregory | Dunedin South |
54 | Adrienne Pierce | Palmerston North |
55 | David Elliott | Napier |
56 | Katrina Bungard | Manurewa |
57 | Bala Beeram | Kelston |
58 | Carolyn O’Fallon | Rimutaka |
59 | Euon Murrell | Mana |
60 | Simeon Brown | Pakuranga |
61 | Andrew Falloon | Rangitata |
62 | Harete Hipango | Whanganui |
63 | Denise Lee | Maungakiekie |
64 | Chris Penk | Helensville |
65 | Erica Stanford | East Coast Bays |
66 | Tim Van de Molen | Waikato |
67 | Lawrence Yule | Tukituki |
68 | TO BE CONFIRMED | Clutha-Southland |
69 | Sarah Jo Barley | List |
70 | Lisa Whyte | List |
71 | Linda Cooper | List |
72 | Dan Bidois | List |
73 | Rahul Sirigiri | List |
74 | Hadleigh Reid | List |
75 | Graham Collins | List |
No major shocks but it is interesting that there has been very little movement there has been since last election. And the top positions clearly reflect current caucus standings.
And National will struggle to get new people off the list. They may lose a couple of electorate seats but this will still mean that they have 39 electorate MPs. And I reckon they will struggle to get to 42% this year which will allow up to 11 list MPs. On these figures Parmjeet Parmar’s, Joanne Hayes’, Chris Bishop’s, Nuk Korako’ s and Maureen Pugh’s parliamentary careers would be over.
There is no sense of of the sort of renewal that they had last time. This list looks tired and staid, exactly like this Government.
And can someone tell Stacey [Kirk] of Stuff that reporters are meant to get content correct?
She said this in an article that appeared this morning:
When former leader John Key increased the party’s vote-share in 2014, as a third-term Government, it was a feat unheard of and one English almost certainly will not be able to repeat.
Memo to Stacey National gained 47.04% of the party vote in 2014 compared to 47.31% in 2011.
[Mea culpa re Stacey’s surname – MS]
The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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Re: Stacey Jones
– You would have thought that a political journo would know better huh? But there was that infamous one party majority that was achieved on the election night 2014 (subsequently came back to 60, and then 59 by March 2015) that may have made those with less analytical skills believe a higher percentage had been achieved (instead Nats actually benefited from over 5% total vote wastage)
I think Stacey is talking about the absolute vote rather than the percentage vote though agree it is a little unclear.
In Poll of Polls National is running at 46-47% so less than 42% seems a little pessimistic. At current polling National is looking at 12-13 new MP’s which represents a reasonable re-generation.
Would be interesting to compare regeneration with the other parties on a same vote basis based on the last election.
Perhaps the same kind of “perspective” would be usefulnto apply to the poll of polls?
At this point in 2014, from memory it had National at over 50% on their own. Some of the more screwed polls from the usual suspects had them getting 55 or 56%. In the end they got 47%.
Basically polls are essentially useless for accurracy this far our except to indicate trend rather than results. All the polls are showing National being well below their 2014 or 2011 level.
If you want to be a meme sprouting dickhead here, then at least learn to be an accurate one. Bad enough having the stupid spinning from political journalists. We really don’t need it from commenters as well.
Nat support in last 4 Polls – compared same point in previous electoral cycles
(Reply to The Real Matthew)
UMR (5-10 July)
Nat … 42%
UMR 2 months out
2008-2017 Nat …51% … 42% …Down 9
2011-2017 Nat …54%… 42%…. Down 12
2014-2017 Nat …48% … 42%… Down 6
Roy Morgan (26 June – 9 July)
Nat … 43%
RM 2 months out
2008-2017 Nat …48% … 43% …Down 5
2011-2017 Nat …57%… 43%…. Down 14
2014-2017 Nat …51% … 43%… Down 8
Colmar Brunton (1–5 July)
Nat … 47%
CB 2 months out
2008-2017 Nat …53% … 43% … Down 10
2011-2017 Nat …56%… 47%….. Down 9
2014-2017 Nat …52% … 47%…. Down 5
Reid Research (approx. 2-11 June)
Nat … 47%
RR 3 months out
2008-2017 Nat …48% … 47% … Down 1
2011-2017 Nat …54%… 47%……Down 7
2014-2017 Nat …50% … 47%…. Down 3
(figures rounded for simplicity)
How does that compare with the way the polls were showing the left parties. From recollection they greatly undershotthe support that Labour got
They’ll pop in a name for Clutha Southland after the election.
I wonder how the seven candidates ranked below “TO BE CONFIRMED” feel?
Look how high Woodhouse and Guy are! I mean seriously, haven’t they been there long enough, without any decent achievements? I think e.g. Maggie and Nikki are awful, but at least they’ve done something.
Pretty sad bunch.
Just different flavours of awful really.
1 Bill English ——— Listing to port
2 Paula Bennett——– Upper creek
3 David Carter ——– Without a paddle
4 Steven Joyce ——– Listening to tapes
5 Gerry Brownlee ——– From Clutha under
6 Simon Bridges ——–Ten new bridges
7 Amy Adams ——– Promised for
8 Jonathan Coleman ——–Northland
Cheers.
Who’s David Carter? Never heard from him.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speaker_of_the_New_Zealand_House_of_Representatives
Oh right. The bent ref who lets the National Party get away with question dodging in the house.
Why the hell is he so high on their list? Being a crooked official must be an important position in the eyes of the National Party and all their supporters.
Three wise monkeys.
Whose David Carter ?
Mate of Bruce Bayliss down Taihape way.
Guys – I am so thrilled you are all making fun of National list. Great achievement. Meanwhile I am worried to death that our party is at 24% in the latest opinion poll. None of you seem to care about that and suggest any ideas or plans to improve the polling. I am talking to all my friends (all former Labour voters) about Labour’s policies and what they are planning to do and nobody seem to care. This is really bad situation guys.
“all former Labour voters”
“our party”
I’ve run out of bingo cards.
PS: Don’t despair, “Labour Voter” (lol), have a read of Swordfish’s analysis above. the CB poll always underestimates the Left vote, and the Greens are up more than Labour are down.
If you get off your backside and knock on a few doors who knows what you could achieve? Unless you’re too lazy, or disingenuous, or something.
Take your sincere concern™ about ‘your’ bad situation and do something positive with it, like the Greens 😈
“If you get off your backside and knock on a few doors who knows what you could achieve? Unless you’re too lazy, or disingenuous, or something.” – Go and take your medicines.
Go and get some new astroturf.
I note that any time the Left get any traction, there is a poll.
When the Right trend down they have an outlier. (Brings the average up you know.)
Just as having one party drop 2/3 points each poll shows an suggested trend.
I think some of this is deliberate misinformation.
I note one in five asked won’t choose.
So how accurate is this? Or is it a fox in our hen house?
I donated in response!! Put my money where my mouth is!! Keep Left!!