New Year. Good News.

Written By: - Date published: 5:43 pm, January 1st, 2022 - 92 comments
Categories: covid-19, health, science - Tags: , , , ,

The following are numbers related to Covid in South Africa. The article the numbers come from is here.

But I want to begin by reiterating a point that many here-a-bouts are determined to push back on. So, from the link (emphasis added)-

For triage purposes, Netcare’s policy is to test all admitted patients for COVID-19 with reverse transcriptase–polymerase chain reaction or, from wave 2 onward, a rapid antigen test obtained from a nasopharyngeal swab. All patients hospitalized with a positive COVID-19 result were included

And I’ll add this from Saint Fauci speaking on MSNBC about child hospitalisation numbers in the USA-

…but the other important thing is that if you look at the children who are hospitalised, many of them are hospitalised with Covid, as opposed to because of Covid. And what we mean by that, if a child goes in the hospital, they automatically get tested for Covid, and they get counted as a Covid hospitalised individual when in fact they may go in for a broken leg, or appendicitis, or something like that. So it’s over counting the number of children who are called hospitalised with Covid as opposed to because of Covid.

Okay. Now that’s out of the way, here are the figures and numbers from Netcare, comparing the different Covid waves in South Africa.

https://cdn.jamanetwork.com/ama/content_public/journal/jama/0/jld210090t1_1640796864.78252.png?Expires=1643905881&Signature=tKkCBsOrdwyEMDQUpNXz12p2ifkHutky9Q4E0u0ocgH3K0f6s2OXuWM9Ps1WftdbRfQ2GCpSLccMj5zMBesidZxspS5ApdzEu7OAXZ3C~zJp3Ic5HpHh36jaRmEJWelEiPuFqhL8251i8FkJXozvVUaLbHz9fm6t6tUUV-HLByWm7ssHN6C8rJLnp92fKCzBtd4CHGHoET1T3Emsu3ghf0zxWd2cKuu-FTvtZUbgZA3UcNVbiwHZGfEGZNy9024j5iPAeZSsI4toewAfUCsLyKGtlfpZ1DGVleethzwOERKeMUeZLZMDW9KXrCAwn7Hy4JEZ5piEe3LmWpVjUVJMDg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA

and

https://cdn.jamanetwork.com/ama/content_public/journal/jama/0/jld210090t2_1640796864.79383.png?Expires=1643905881&Signature=kwiWQN6YvNc6H1xtxPcsLULbXyITUTMm8DQTRPqrZhw5h0ijWgxHMsS0vFMohsjAhbwtYH1BvUGyjMrDsDOo4JEyXWOC0JvJ-Er5-JI4thIN3qR5T9aQaRmA5C69XQadwGmZ13E~H7xWHw0VOfGI1nqVhrfrQ52cU7I960VBr5N0ngpb3GDn-AnJ0RCHlMD3p5Ix6bT96grjw478HW9Gfo3J70jsU3ZvNwa~BLtBZFtK~jPuTdDUxOva58wcljgBQ1A6JpF9-hqISn4w2IAOQyu2zP~4Zbs5QLUaUH0JxVMCZppwB95o8sKitpFRYUADl6Ort9~T--8Jm0IPvA1S1Q__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA

So, just to be abundantly clear, all of the above figures are for patients in hospital for any reason who have returned a +ve test for Covid, and who are receiving various levels of care for any condition and have tested +ve for Covid.

In spite of the above, and in spite of that same basic pattern repeating across various countries as Omicron displaces the far more harmful Delta ( some might suggest Omicron would get FDA approval if only someone would bang it into a syringe) , I suspect Covidian Cultists will reach for the petrol canister and the matches just to prove they were, and are correct to be running around like their hair’s on fire.

92 comments on “New Year. Good News. ”

  1. I guess we are all entitled to our view……I almost always disregard anything where the point cannot be made without disparaging comments eg

    'covidian cultists'

    'Saint Fauci'

    Having read enough RW US junk about Covid I do get a pretty accurate 'spidery' feeling when this kind of terminology (above) is used as it is part & parcel of the way Covid is dismissed as non existent or minimised over there.

    What is the real objection? Is it that we may have the traffic lights changing, we might not be able to open the borders so the students and tourists can come back? or, or (insert any RW concern)

    From a public health point of view, to me it matters not if the Covid was found before or after someone went to hospital. We are talking trends, the reach of the virus etc. So if a child with a broken leg from a suburb that hitherto was not known for having Covid comes to the hospital then two things (at least) will happen:

    1) the individual is treated for a broken leg it will be coded in the hospital coding as a broken leg

    plus

    2 coded for a Covid infection (Covid is a notifiable disease)

    Other things that may happen are that the child's accident will be looked at to make sure there is no hint of assault by caregivers, and

    The Covid teams will analyse the covid results, initiate household tests and may find other cases of Covid. Seeing as the existence of these was triggered by a child going to hospital with a broken leg then you could, on the basis of your argument thus far, make a case for all of these Covid sufferers not to be counted either.

    If we were researching children with broken legs in a particular place we will look up and count the broken leg coding. We would not disregard it because the child had Covid as well.

    If we are looking at patterns, trends, possible outliers for Covid we would look up and count the Covid.

    So both illnesses/conditions are treated.

    So what say a child comes in with earache/ear infections and then is found to have Covid.

    Earache may or may not be a symptom of child Covid infections. Again both the conditions will be treated and coded separately.

    Would it matter if a child came in with a broken leg and TB another infectious notifiable disease? Would we not count the TB because the immediate presenting feature was a broken leg? or a STI?

    It is not beyond imagining that a child/ren may present with abdominal discomfort and it turns out that they have a Covid infection, it might be that small children may fall over frequently when they have Covid……so a child may present with a large number of bruises and clumsiness and be found to have Covid.

    What say, if we adopt a rule that says only single causes will be counted and a child with a sore stomach perhaps constipated or with diarrhea comes in, is found to have Covid, is seriously affected and dies. We only count it as a sore stomach.

    The point is I know of no-one who is running around with their hair on fire about Omicron. Most of the ones I know (lay people) are rightly concerned/interested about how this latest variant may turn out. It seems to be one of huge numbers because of it's high transmissibility and this translates into larger numbers possibly in hospitals but with less serious illnesses.

    But we just don't know.

    So we keep on being careful until we do.

    So we (meaning the NZ Health Service) count and analyse Covid cases whenever and however they come across across them.

    In other words we make haste slowly and carefully.

    We let the scientists and public health people do their bit, they know more than we do. They then advise the Govt and the Govt puts its thinking cap on about mitigations and how workable and acceptable they may be.

    • Bill 1.1

      The sub-text of the post pretty much lays out how, even by Fauci's admission now, "project fear" has involved inflating numbers that legacy media can and does run with in order to create and maintain a climate of fear.

      Hug it as a cultist would if you will, but don't expect anything but derision from me – too many lives have been turned upside down by the bullshit and nonsense that people clinging to a perverse sense of comfort continues to enable.

    • Drowsy M. Kram 1.2

      Hug it as a cultist would if you will…

      Intriguing, imho. Happy New Year Everyone. "Repent, Harlequin!" Said the Ticktockman.

      Covid 19 Omicron outbreak in Antarctic: Belgian polar researchers at remote station infected [31 December 2021]
      An alien life form infects workers on an Antarctic station in the cult Sci fi chiller, which starred Kurt Russell. Unlike the film, none of the infected Belgians have exhibited any severe symptoms – let alone been transformed into bloodthirsty beasts that can only be killed by incineration.

      Australia starts 2022 with record COVID cases
      The outbreak has affected sporting events. Australia batsman Travis Head will miss the fourth Ashes cricket test against England in Sydney next week after testing positive for COVID.

      Travis Head will miss the fourth Ashes cricket test” – Oh, the humanity! Strange days.

      COVID-19 vaccine opponents start holding protests outside churches that take safety measures against the virus [26 Dec. 2021]
      "We need to stand up for God because that is not it," Coelho told the activists. "God connects; he does not separate. So anywhere there is a disconnection, you know that God is not around. It's so sad to see this in the churches today in Canada. It's insane what's happening here—time to take a fierce stand here."

      The other speaker, Taylor van Haastert, spoke about the vaccine as being the "mark of the beast", noting that in Sweden, people are receiving microchips in their hands that can be picked up by cellphones.

      "Now, you're going to need the mark of the beast to buy a can of pop," Taylor van Haastert said.

    • Louis 1.3

      Shanreagh +1 on your comments

  2. RedLogix 2

    If you want the most reliable takeaway from the data presented by Bill's OP , it's in that last row of the second table – the one that lists 'Deaths' as a percentage of 'total patients hospitalised in a serious condition'.

    • First Wave (Original variant) 19.7%
    • Second Wave 25.5%
    • Third Wave (Delta) 29.1%
    • Fourth Wave (Omicron) 2.7%

    That's at least ten times less severe than Delta. This is a very reliable metric because it's essentially a ratio derived from cohort populations of people who are sick enough to be hospitalised. The most likely confounding factor will be the likely improvement in hospital treatment over time – but given that COVID really only responds well to early treatment I'd suggest this isn't a strong factor here.

    While severity is one measure of how concerned we should be, it doesn't tell us what fraction of people who do get infected with Omicron will go on to become seriously ill. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few weeks, but so far the signal is promising.

    • Shanreagh 2.1

      Yes, I saw that ……but while there is a temptation to extrapolate that to NZ, it is not terribly smart to do so just yet.

      1 It covers just one country

      2 We may be better waiting quietly until we have a better picture of how Omicron is behaving in Australia, UK & US.

      3 High vaccination rates may help

      4 The takeaway for me from the newshas been the huge surging numbers in Australia, US & UK. Even if it is less severe the impact on health systems of the sheer numbers will be important to manage carefully.

      • RedLogix 2.1.1

        It covers one country

        The nature of this severity metric makes this less of a concern. While it's possible the absolute numbers will differ from other nations, the ratio between the severity of the prior three waves and Omicron will likely remain very similar.

        We may be better waiting quietly until we have a better picture of how Omicron is behaving in Australia, UK & US.

        Yeah – but how much longer? End of January would seem reasonable to me.

        High vaccination rates may help

        Not quite sure what you exactly mean here, and while the vaccination/natural immunity situation will be very different between SA and NZ, this doesn't apply to this severity metric. But if anything NZ should be a lot better off than SA.

        And yes Omicron surges very rapidly, which is a function of it's extremely high R value. And while this presents a challenge to 'flattening the curve', it's also a very positive feature because it means it's way less likely any new variant will outcompete it any time soon.

      • mauī 2.1.2

        The takeaway from "the news" tonight for me was that naughty people weren't wearing masks on New Years Eve and that an anti-vax cafe owner believes the vaccine turns you into an alien or something.

  3. Ed 3

    Covidian Cultists

    Saint Fauci

    Is this the language of a reasoned argument or that of the anti-vax brigade and Q Anon conspiracy theorists?

    • Robert Guyton 3.1

      That's what I'm wondering also…

      • Shanreagh 3.1.1

        Well as I said it is that kind of language that abounds in the memes and posts of RW (Republican Party) in the USA. There are hundreds of dismaying memes about Dr Fauci. They obviously don't know that he the equivalent of a NZ public servant, no more no less. To denigrate a person for doing their job is crazy.

        And the 'Covidian cultists', particularly the word Covidian had an unfortunate parallel, not sure if it was deliberate or not with the (Branch) Davidian belief. At the core of their beliefs, the Branch Davidians, an offshoot of the Davidians, believed the apocalypse was coming.

        As I said I have not seen an apocalypse coming but Bill is worried that people are figuratively running around with their hair on fire and perhaps the concern over Omicron that he keeps seeing looks like apocalyptic thinking. I can't say I have seen any seen people running around worried* though of course it is a part of a conversation about Covid.

        * Rather than being worried the conversation has been less than complimentary about our DJ friend ……

        • Robert Guyton 3.1.1.1

          I don't see people "running around with their hair on fire", more, ordinary folk making reasoned decisions. That's what I see.

          • Julian Richards 3.1.1.1.1

            Accepting without question a domestic health opportunity passport to participate in society is not a reasoned decision. Its rooted in fear, anger and hate…. For no good reason.

            • Robert Guyton 3.1.1.1.1.1

              "Accepting" something, is a fearful, angry and hateful action?

              How odd you might think that!

              Are you sure the people here you direct your comments too accepted "without question", the "domestic health opportunity passport"?

              You may be extrapolating…wildly.

    • Bill 3.2

      Hard data. Make of what you will.

      Now, what's the argument? Do you even know, or are you playing at ye olde nonsense where any reason that might allow for non-engagement/dismissal is grasped at?

      I'm no anti-vaxxer. Nor am I a Q Anon or Russia Hoax conspiracy theorist – jist sayin'.

      So now that you're knowing that, you can engage in substantive debate any time you're ready.

      • Robert Guyton 3.2.1

        All Q Anon followers (in NZ) say they are not Q Anon followers. Just saying'.

      • Shanreagh 3.2.2

        I have already.

        I think the concern about hospitalisations and how Covid is counted is odd and I don't understand why there is this concern. After all to paraphrase Gertrude Stein's 'A rose' saying 'Covid is covid is covid'.

        I think it is too early to be making judgements about Omicron on the basis of the experience of one country. The severity is one thing but the transmissibility is another. Australia, UK and US are having huge surges and these if not well managed could put our whole health system at risk ie including GPs who may be caring for patients in the community.

        • McFlock 3.2.2.1

          A country with a median age ten years lower than NZ.

          SA apparently has a much younger population than NZ.

          Maybe there are other factors at play, maybe not.

          • Bill 3.2.2.1.1

            There are '1001' differences between S.A and NZ. And probably a different '1001' differences between S.A. and the UK – where the same basic pattern of remarkably high infection rates and incredibly low serious case numbers is being replicated.

            • McFlock 3.2.2.1.1.1

              UK doesn't seem to be as optimistic as you. Probs all part of the international conspiracy to make people worried, for some reason.

              • Bill

                So, contrast that 'news' reporting and the sense of panic and fear it promotes with the actual numbers and conclude whatever you want to conclude…

                Around 80% of English hospital admissions with coronavirus are admitted for other reasons

                And bearing in mind that a covid death is any death for any reason occurring 28 days after a +ve test result and any death for any reason where covid is also detected…

                UK, 24th December

                Omicron hospital patients, 366 (ie, people in hospital for any reason who test +ve for covid)

                Total omicron deaths, 29 (see above)

                UK, 27th December

                Omicron hospital patients, 407 Total omicron deaths, 39

                Omicron cases + 45,307 = 159,932

                UK, 29th December

                Omicron hospital patients, + 261 + 98 = 766

                Total omicron deaths, + 10 + 4 = 53

                https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-omicron-daily-overview

                • McFlock

                  To heck with the "reporting", we know if it bleeds it leads.

                  If omicron isn't a problem, why the new facilities? Because the NHS has too much money?

                  What's in it for the medical profession around the world to play into the "fear mongering", going so far as to ask (beg) for public health measures and temporary facilities? Why are people from nurses to unit directors crying out for people to take at least some tiny steps to preserve their own goddamned lives? Are they in on the con, or just stupid?

                  They have access to the same data and publications as you – likely more. But it's ok, Bill's done the math after a month and can announce to the world that omicron is nothing to worry about. Let's have a street party when omicron's on the move in NZ.

                  1 in a million dead per day? Pah, 'tis but a flesh wound.

                  • Bill

                    What are you on about McFlock? Who's "begging" for public health measures and temporary facilities?

                    From the article you linked – “We hoped never to have to use the original Nightingales, (that were closed in the spring after treating relatively few people) and I hope we never to have to use these new hubs,” Powis said" & Sajid Javid, Britain’s health minister, said that while he, too, hoped the surge hubs at hospitals would not have to be used, “it is absolutely right that we prepare for all scenarios and increase capacity.”

                    Casually reporting on preparedness for a worst possible scenario is one thing. Reporting on preparedness as though the sky was about to fall in (ie- fear mongering) is quite another.

                    Omicron, it seems, presents as a common cold, and people who contract it do not need oxygen or ventilation in anywhere near the numbers that required such treatments in the Delta wave. We don't know just how low those numbers are, because people on oxygen or ventilation for all and any other reasons are lumped in with "Covid" if they show a +ve result.

                    • McFlock

                      Meanwhile, anyone familiar with what they're talking about without your confidence in the safety of omicron is preparing for the worst.

                      “Not as bad as delta” doesn’t mean that the numbers are “good news”.

        • Bill 3.2.2.2

          A hospital system isn't swamped by Covid cases if 50% or 60% or even 80% of the people in hospital with Covid are only receiving treatment for other ailments. That's why the reported numbers and the intended effect on the general populace matter.

          • Shanreagh 3.2.2.2.1

            A hospital system isn't swamped by Covid cases if 50% or 60% or even 80% of the people in hospital with Covid are only receiving treatment for other ailments.

            I am not getting the feeling that the adults going to the hospitals say in London are all going with something else and then coincidentally being found to have Covid.

            Because of its infectious nature people with Covid will not be nursed in open wards……they may have their own separate wards and PPE gear will be worn. Rosters will be worked out differently. When some thing different to the usual way a hospital operates had to be instituted there are costs. People with Covid with co morbidities such as a child with a broken leg with Covid who has seasonal bronchitis or asthma will definitely be nursed and treated for Covid while in hospital.

            • Bill 3.2.2.2.1.1

              I am not getting the feeling that..

              Why don't you go and dig out the numbers to see if your feelings are correct or not?

                • Bill

                  I don't know why those totals and the 2/3rds number is so different to the 20% and only some hundreds derived from official stats provided in response to McFlock above.

                  • McFlock

                    Whereas I don't know how you arrived at 20% from the link you posted at 9:56pm.

                    Seemed to just be the daily count.

                    • Bill

                      Perhaps I threw up the incorrect link from the description and links below this video. If so, my bad. At about 10 minutes in, the NHS figures are presented – incidental cases sits at 80% and is on a positive trajectory.

                      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OM2VgBm9pTI

                    • McFlock

                      lols when in doubt, bring up youtube.

                      [RL: In general TS culture encourages cites. Sneering at the source with no attempt at an argument is both dimwitted and discouraged.]

                    • weka

                      lols when in doubt, bring up youtube.

                      This seems a legitimate criticism. If the good doctor is citing himself, why not use that instead of expecting people to watch video and dig it out.

                    • RedLogix

                      @weka

                      If the good doctor is citing himself,

                      Campbell gives reference links in the clip description to the data sources he is using. They are very easy to find.

                      The only occasion I recall him 'citing himself' was one video a month or so back when he drew attention to the two nurse training manuals he has written.

                      Have we changed policy to no longer encouraging cites?

                  • Poission

                    The numbers (2/3 from NHS ) are troublesome for the proposition,often when a neat statistical fact puncturing the proposition,the narrative changes to spin.

                    Of the 8,321 Covid patients in hospital on December 28 only 67%were being primarily treated for the virus

                    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10358545/Proportion-NHS-beds-taken-incidental-Covid-patients-rises-33-figures-show.html

                    • Bill

                      I assume that's for both Omicron and Delta, meaning the number obscures the picture on what's happening around Omicron numbers in hospital.

                      Or have I misunderstood your comment?

              • Koreropono

                I wish there was a 'like' button to show my appreciation of this response 🙂

              • Shanreagh

                'Ya know I'm not going to bother…… Why does it matter how or where or when a person is tested and is found to have Covid. They could be standing on their head in the ladies loos at Wimbledon……or they could have gone to an ED, as long as they go and get/are tested/treated if need be, somewhere.

                Poisson's figures are good enough for me.

                Even though it is/may be less severe, the numbers reported in other countries may have the potential to overwhelm.

                So my view is it is better to be cautious, as we are doing.

                I trust the MOH a lot more than those who reach for the anti Fauci playbook and Covid minimisation espoused by the US right.

                I am not seeing fear or people running around scared…..far from it.

                Caution is not the same as fear.

                • Bill

                  I trust the MOH a lot more than those who reach for the anti Fauci playbook and Covid minimisation espoused by the US right.

                  You do understand there is left wing critique too, yes? And also (more or less) a-political critiques from academia and medical communities? And you also know that Fauci served in Trump's admin and that Trump launched the "warpspeed' initiative that allowed pharma to body swerve the regulatory framework that exists for the testing and trialing of new drugs?

                  And, of course, you'll also be aware of the unprecedented censorship that has been applied to any and all who contradict the official Covid narrative.

                  Or maybe you're just tribalist? Maybe, like Biden and Harris, you would have been against injections if Trump was in the White House, because, y'know, medicine is just 'right wing' politics versus 'left wing' politics, and sensible decisions are made on the basis of perceived personality?

                  • Shanreagh

                    Good grief.

                    I am not a tribal political beast that I would let nonsense would override my commonsense. particularly if the diminishing of commonsense came per a political party.

                    Anyone advising vaccination for Covid would get my support just as anyone supporting masking, distancing, hygiene, scanning would. I support the mandates for front facing (public) jobs and also support there being a choice in vaccines so that people who are uneasy about mRNA can be vaccinated.

                    I don't support over blown views about so-called censorship if that means we get to give full rein to the nutter fringe anti vaxxers.

                    Some governments are handling this outbreak with a lesser loss of life than others, whether that was the correct emphasis may possibly be debated by some.

                    Trump was a person of many parts, he did authorise the vaccination initiative but was fiendishly slow in other aspects. He waged a campaign of minimisation for much longer than he should have with the 'China flu, Wu flu, 'we'll be through this by the end of summer'. He was lucky he had a PS of the calibre of Dr Fauci advising him.

        • RedLogix 3.2.2.3

          I think the concern about hospitalisations and how Covid is counted is odd and I don't understand why there is this concern.

          It's a concern because there is a substantial gap between the number of people who will test positive on a PCR test, and those with symptoms severe enough to be hospitalised with. Keep in mind the vast majority of people who have ever contracted COVID were either asymptomatic or had a mild illness they were never treated for.

          Then include the statistical reality that something like 80% of single 'positive tests' will arise from people who don't have COVID – then it's my view that 'detected infections' are an inflated and worthless metric. It tells us nothing useful about actual infections, nor how dangerous a disease currently is. The fatality rate of COVID-19 is not a constant but varies over time and place enormously in response to changing conditions. It cannot be interpreted meaningfully and it should never be used to guide policy or strategy.

          Yet it's the one that govts and media have consistently led with – and you have to ask why.

          • Shanreagh 3.2.2.3.1

            I don't agree with much of what you are saying to support the idea that Covid in hospitals if not the prime reason for admitting should not be counted.

            Keep in mind the vast majority of people who have ever contracted COVID were either asymptomatic or had a mild illness they were never treated for.

            I don't know that this is the case…..have you figures/reference. I have known a couple who were not taken to hospital but were utterly and completely miserable for at least a couple of weeks, long covid is a point too. They had GP consults. Does that count as treatment?

            Because we do not know what we are dealing with until after the event I am not a fan of minimising day to day impacts or affects. The figures put out by MOH do have breakdowns across a range of metrics. I don't get the feeling having looked at these over many months that they are over stated. Consistency is important.

          • KJT 3.2.2.3.2

            How many times do we have to show your "80 of positive tests" is bullshit?

            • RedLogix 3.2.2.3.2.1

              As many times as you fail to explain why.

              I spent a while yesterday searching around on how various national authorities treat the distinction between 'positive tests' and 'confirmed tests' and there is a lot of variation out there. Some do mention the need for a second test, but most do not. In many cases its "one positive test and you isolate", which is clearly a faulty model. In general it seems that you only get a confirming test if you arrive at a hospital for any reason, but that's a different and much smaller population again.

              Your concern about how NZ tests only those who're likely to have been exposed or have symptoms and this changes the false positive rate is covered off here.

              • Nic the NZer

                Its clearly a meaningful metric. Its a measurement of the people who contracted covid whether or not they became ill, but importantly its the useful number if your modelling disease spread. In NZ its also been telling our health ministry which kinds of health measures are appropriate (e.g when to end or impose public health measures), without it we can't make that decision in any particularly objective way.

                People generally understand how this applies to them via the question, would you rather share a neighbouring plane seat with a) someone you saw sneeze? Or b) someone with a positive PCR test?

                PCR tests have a low false positive rate so a person failing one has likely had or has covid, and as a result we are isolating them to minimise further spread.

                The main reason this line of argument gets involved is that they are not diagnostic tests so failing a PCR test does not mean that person will show symptoms, become ill or is necessarily infectious.

                Unfortunately there is no test which can tell you the profile of when someone is infectious and not.

              • Nic the NZer

                I had a careful look through how your applying Bayes theory but I don't think it makes sense.

                You have P(A) probability of having covid and P(B) probability of a positive PCR test. The false positive rate of the tests doesn't come into it in this case, except that P(B) is likely slightly higher than P(A) because of it. But in this case what you were saying about people seeking a test due to symptoms is not involved.

                Otherwise what are the events A and B. I can't see a definition which isn't a compound (e.g probability of having covid and going to get a test) and if the events are not independent you can't really apply the formula.

                Yes, if everyone is tested at random the positive test results would clearly be lower, than for those seeking a test.

                • RedLogix

                  I sort of follow that, but you seem to have omitted the Bayesian part altogether. I could try to put it into more words, but the key idea is that an accurate test is not always a very predictive test.

                  Here is a totally non-COVID explanation:

                  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMpKgWslssY

                  • Nic the NZer

                    Once you know the categories then the other probabilities P(A|B) and P(B|A) are defined. Though you would need some idea of those probabilities to apply the formula.

                    • RedLogix

                      Care to give some concrete example of what you mean?

                    • Nic the NZer []

                      I don't have one. But all I'm saying is I can't make sense of applying bayes formula to covid tests. But if you can define events A and B then maybe you have a point.

                      But as far as I am aware a 4% false positive rate (or less) is really not a concern especially as weak positives usually go through a follow up test to confirm.

        • RedLogix 3.2.2.4

          Well here's a current linky out of Australia:

          Closer to home in NSW, while case numbers continue to soar, driven by the transmissibility of the variant, hospitalisation numbers have remained relatively steady, as has the number of patients admitted to intensive care as a result of the strain.

          During the state’s Delta outbreak in mid-2021, a quarter of hospitalised patients were in the ICU whereas, at the moment, it’s less than one-in-10.

          The number of ICU patients in NSW requiring a ventilator is also down. During the Delta outbreak, the percentage of people in intensive care who required ventilation was over 20 per cent; now, only 2 per cent of patients require the use of one.

          “Hospitalisations are rising, but not at the same rate as newly reported cases, even allowing for a time lag, as people who go on to develop serious symptoms usually do so a week or more into their infection,” chair of epidemiology at Deakin University, Catherine Bennett, told news.com.au on Friday.

          Professor Bennett pointed to early studies published in both the UK and South Africa in December, which also suggest that people who contract the variant are far less likely to face severe illness and admission to hospital than those who contract the Delta variant.

          Both countries have also reported “that Omicron infections that do lead to a hospital admission result in shorter stays on average, and this also helps keep numbers down on any given day, relative to other variants”, she said.

          Or another:

          Covid-19, he added, “is now the most treatable respiratory virus known to man”, and despite its transmissibility, Omicron will likely have a lower case-to-fatality ratio than the flu, “and not a particularly bad flu at that”.

          As immunologist Sir John Bell, who was a lead scientist on the AstraZeneca vaccine, concluded earlier this week, the strain is not “the same disease we were seeing a year ago”.

          “The horrific scenes that we saw a year ago – intensive care units being full, lots of people dying prematurely – that is now history in my view, and I think we should be reassured that that’s likely to continue,” the Regis Professor of Medicine at Oxford University told BBC Radio 4’s Today program on Wednesday.

          The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine’s Professor Martin Hibberd agreed.

          “The virus will evolve itself out of the pandemic strain very soon and become milder, more transmissible to the point where you may only need to think about vaccinating the more vulnerable members of the population,” Dr Tang told The Guardian.

          • Shanreagh 3.2.2.4.1

            This is in line with the reporting I have read.

            Though the arguments here seems to be that we swipe one third of the numbers reporting & testing for covid off the total because they went to the ED with something else.

            The effects of Omicron are not only felt at the hospitals but in other workplaces as people fall sick and have to isolate because of the transmissibility.

            There have been impacts on transport services. 'Luckily' these have fallen at a time when travel is traditionally low.

            https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-southern-suspends-london-victoria-services-until-10-january-as-coronavirus-causes-nationwide-rail-disruption-12506386

              • Bill

                Thanks for that. In conjunction with a link Anne posted, there's an obvious "rowing back" on the part of legacy media – Good.

                The bit that still has me shaking my head is persisting with the push to vaccinate all and sundry, including children who only had a 1 in 2 million chance of dying from Delta and whose odds will have gone out even further if we're looking at Omicron.

                In perspective, the Delta fatality rate for children was less than for seasonal flu.

                From the link – And in the UK, researchers have said three quarters of all colds will be Covid. Got a sniffle? You probably have Covid-19.

                Anyone care to remind me what we're protecting otherwise healthy adults and children from again? We know that Omicron walks around x2 injections. We know that x3 injections might offer some short term protection from infection. We also know Omicron tends to present as a cold – an Omicron cold?

                We also know we have had very questionable data fed back to us on the safety profile/ side effects of the injections, and that where injections are concerned, having x3 or x4 injections does not necessarily equate to being 3x or 4x better for our immune systems (or even any good for our immune systems at all) – that there is not a linear relationship.

                The narrative is crumbling and that's good, but I'm not holding my breath for the government to volte face and disseminate useful and basic public health care information that might interfere with anyone's bottom line…

            • KJT 3.2.2.4.1.2

              Is Bill also suggesting that if they went to hospital with COVID, they should not appear in the "broken leg" statistics, if they arrive with COVID and are found to have a broken leg after arrival?

              • Shanreagh

                Hmmmn that is where the logic falls down. Count both, code both, deal with both. Interrogate the data of both. After. Don't make a decision not to collect or count prior to anyone knowing the full effect.

                I don't see the rationale for minimising the numbers who do appear in hospitals. Even if we do swipe one third off the total hospitalisations this is like a 'whack a mole' and the effects of large number with Omicron will be found elsewhere with strained transport and other links as people, many of whom are not in hospital, isolate because of the transmissibility.

              • Julian Richards

                @KJT pull you head out of your 'something'. Bill is clearly suggesting we need a lot more transparency around reporting.

                I.e. the MoH reports to the media numbers of people in hospital high care as % with two shots, % with one shot (1 shot categorization as vaccinated, weird, as you need two to be vaccinated). And the % with no shots, but the the kicker is those in the % of no shots includes children under 12 yrs and those medically exempt from Pfizer jab(do you know how you get exemption?) … And then they proudly proclaim that the unvaccinated are clogging up the system. The daily averages in NZ have been sitting around 60-65% unvaccinated in high care, 35-40% vaccinatied in high care.

                But if children who are at little to know risk from covid19 (shouldn't need to cite this as its widely accepted science worldwide by now), then Houston we have a problem in the reporting of those nasty non-jabbed taking your tax payer care from the jabbed (propaganda, manipulated facts).

                Wouldn't it be wonderful if the reporting was carried out with more transparency, which is what Bill is saying we need! I.e. Numbers in high care of eligible individuals with one shot, two shots, three shots. Numbers in high care with no shots separating eligible adults, non-eligible children (below 12yrs as defined by the government) and the medically exempt (exemption from vaccination in NZ gained through vaccination from viral vector trial vaccine).

                And perhaps include in these daily calls to the pulpit, the numbers who are incidentally found as positive cases (asymptomatic) along side those in hospital for symptomatic covid19 reasons.

                This would paint a very different picture, but then the media would have a problem… How to spin the spin… To get the booster jab upon booster jabs (*bing, you are now red) , that are clearly not needed for the vast majority, especially with omricon.

                • KJT

                  I find the reporting transparent enough.

                  It seems only anti-vaccers, right wing politicians and those who want to perpetuate the narrative that the MOH, and the Government are lying to us, have a comprehension problem.

                  Particurly annoying is those twits that claim, ” the Government is hiding something” when the Government has just told us in a daily press conference, or it is clearly available on the MOH, or COVID, websites.

                  • Shanreagh

                    Yes re the figures……those in hospital are shown with their vaccination status in the MOH updates at 1.00pm. There is a myriad of information on this site (below) to look at but I get the feeling

                    'Nah that's too easy I'd rather perpetuate my own narrative thanks without reference to pesky figures.'

                    https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-case-demographics

                    • julian richards

                      Thank you for providing that link, I hoped you would.

                      For both yourself and @KJT, you need to understand this type of information from the MoH clearly muddies the water and blurs the picture! Can you spot the two very different data fields in the link provided and how this has been used? I bet you gloss over them and only see the numbers you want! See they provide two differant sets of data depending on what picture they want to create. Data from August 2021 on-wards and data from March 2020 on-wards.

                      To give you an example from the data (link provided), and seeing as though we're operating at extremes, I'll provide the two for you both:

                      60+ years of age – 7% total covid19 cases, 74% of deaths, 15% total Hospitalizations/ICU, 27% of total ICU.

                      0-19 years of age – 32% of total covid19 cases, less than 1% of deaths (this case is being questioned, as it should), 10% hospitalizations/ICU, 2% ICU.

                      26.5% hospitalizations are vaccinated (media says 1 shot also included in this group) and 66% are non-vaxxed. But don't forget the children, Oh won't somebody think of the children! If we then include children (7.5%) in the non-vaxxed group as the media does (muddy waters) then we get 70% non vaxxed of total hospitalized and 30% vaxxed.

                      But see the problems get worse when you look back at the above stats provided from the link, see children are listed as 10% of all hospitalizations/ICU in NZ during the covid19 pandemic, yet not one child (under 12 yrs) and actually only 1 person below 19 years of age has been in ICU, and this is not the one child attributed as dying from covid19.

                      Then 60+ years of age 15% of all hospitalizations/ICU…..But actually accounts for 27% of all ICU covid patients(58 ICU patients in total during the entire pandemic in NZ).

                      Then lets make an assumption because they won't let us know the actual facts, lets assume hospitalizations (580) are incidental cases picked up on admission and ICU cases(58) are actual covid19 admissions, that's 10% of hospitalizations are actual covid19 cases. See but this MoH website also identifies 712 people hospitalized/ICU since the beginning of the pandemic (March 2020), the 580 number comes from August 2021 thereafter.

                      See the problem with how the media manipulates and reports!!??

                    • Shanreagh

                      'Then lets make an assumption because they won't let us know the actual facts, lets assume hospitalizations (580) are incidental cases picked up on admission and ICU cases(58) are actual covid19 admissions, that's 10% of hospitalizations are actual covid19 cases. See but this MoH website also identifies 712 people hospitalized/ICU since the beginning of the pandemic (March 2020), the 580 number comes from August 2021 thereafter.'

                      I am not comparing the figures from the daily briefings with the MOH demographics. The daily briefings are a snapshot in time (and they have recently changed the time of day that data is collected from and to).

                      For instance in the daily briefings, since the cases in hospital expanded to include Covid sufferers from other parts of NZ those who make up the figures of fully vaxxed, partially vaxxed and not eligible are only counted from the Northern wards ie those in the wider Auckland area.

                      As we do not yet have Omicron here in NZ, where the figures from the UK may show up to 1/3rd came to hospital with something else and Covid was later found, I don't think your comments are correct ie 580 in wards for something else and incidentally with Covid and 58 in ICU/HDU the only ones with 'real' covid.

                      We have had several cases over the course of the pandemic where EDs have instanced people turning up not knowing or suspecting they have Covid and finding out later and these have been such the exception that EDs have been publicising this in case other patients waiting had been affected. Then a woman, from memory with gang links, came in with something, was routinely tested for what ever hse came in with and Covid, but left and after was found to be Covid positive. Searching for her took place. All these occurred with the Delta and Alpha variants.

                      Knowing a little bit about how Covid is nursed, many turn up with Covid, ie mainly problems breathing, fevers ie the symptoms of the Covid viral infection and can be nursed in a ward ie the 580. That is they don't need to go to ICU.

                      There are a range of options for nursing in a ward including access to some forms of oxygen supplementation. If they have problems with that cannot be fixed in a ward setting, ie intractable breathing problems, problems with co-morbidities such as existing high blood pressure etc they may go to ICU or HDU.

                      Often people that need to be nursed in ICU/HDU no longer have the active Covid virus present but have the after effects of the virus so stiff lungs, sepsis, kidney problems. So the ones in wards are people who may be unwell with Covid, the ones in ICU/HDU are sicker and may need more specialised help with breathing etc ventilating, tracheotomy etc than is available in the wards.

                      I don't think it is useful to look at the daily figures and try and find them in the demographics, though they will be there.

                      What has happened with Delta and the numbers who are admitted to hospital with Covid and then to ICU does not extrapolate out to what we know now about Omicron. Then there are the people who have tested positive for Covid and are/were taken to isolation places MIQ and now can isolate at home, dealt with in the community. I think the majority of the NZ people who got Covid (and were tested) were dealt with either in MIQ/isolation or hospital wards/hospital ICU or HDU. There will be some who did not seek medical advice.

                      I tend to take the figures at face value ie collected by diligent hard working analysts from figures accessed from data collected by hard working lab workers who work from specimens collected (again by diligent, hard working nurses, phlebotomists etc etc.) While sometimes the media do get figures muddled this has not happened for a long time. Clearly they, MOH and we have become used to looking at the same format daily.

                      The MOH Demographics are specialist tables useful for health info nerds/nuts such as me. If there is something I don't understand from the daily briefings I will go to the MOH database. They report things as they are, no spin or misunderstandings.

                      The important thing though is we are still in the times of Delta, our community cases are Delta cases, our people in hospitals are with Delta. (At least I have not heard that anyone has been taken to hospital here in NZ from the border with an Omicron case)

                  • Julian Richards

                    Please link to the transparent reporting of covid infected patients in hospital, that gives the full breakdown of 'health status'.

                    You know, one shot, two shots, three shots, no shots (eligible for shots, children and medical exemptions noted separately).

                    Please, link for all of us here the transparent reporting you feel is widely available @KJT.

                    Accept the challenge and share with everyone.

                  • Louis

                    KJT +1

            • RedLogix 3.2.2.4.1.3

              Though the arguments here seems to be that we swipe one third of the numbers reporting & testing for covid off the total because they went to the ED with something else.

              Well the counterfactual to think about here is, if they had not gone to ED with that 'something else' – they would have not have appeared as a COVID statistic.

              While it seems perfectly reasonable for hospitals to test for COVID and record the results – it's a different matter to report them as a COVID case if that is not the primary cause of them being in hospital. Especially if they present with no COVID symptoms.

              • Descendant Of Smith

                "they would have not have appeared as a COVID statistic."

                Surely that should be may not as there is no way of telling the consequences of the early diagnosis e.g. as early action could now be put in place they did not require later intervention and or did not die. No different to early identification of cancer produces much better outcomes. A week or two later they may well have indeed presented. Alternatively they may well have felt a bit sick a few days and got tested elsewhere.

                It makes no sense at all to exclude them on the basis they didn't initially present. You conterfactual is not really a counterfactual at all because it has to assume, to exclude the person from the data, that the person would never get tested and neglects completely the notion that they may very well have got tested in the future if it hadn't been picked up at that point.

                • RedLogix

                  I was quite aware of that when I suggested the counterfactual – what you have introduced in response is a whole bunch of unknowables that don't take the argument anywhere. The clue is that you have to use the word 'may' a lot:

                  A week or two later they may well have indeed presented. Alternatively they may well have felt a bit sick a few days and got tested elsewhere.

                  But equally they may not have. And indeed I'd argue that on the basis that most C19 infections are asymptomatic or mild – the probability is they would not have. But that's about all you can say. What you can say with certainty is that if they presented with COVID symptoms later, then at that point they can be legitimately counted as a case. But not before.

      • Robert Guyton 3.2.3

        "Hard data. Make of what you will."

        You mean, "Hard data. Make of what you Bill will".

        • Shanreagh 3.2.3.1

          It is ironic that nothing that I read up until I read Bill's several posts about how we are all afraid and fearful made me even think that the coming of a new variant should make me fearful.

          Vaxxed and sensible am I missing something? Are those of us who think researchers will research, advisers will advise and decisionmakers make decisions as they have up until now and this will be enough, won't get us through this time? Are we supposed to be feeling fearful?

          Or, as I am thinking, is more the case this is a move to take away any clarity, cast a cloud of obscurity (eg the red herring about where/when people are showing up with Covid) and an attempt to go back to pre covid ie throwing the borders open anyone? Uncontrolled tourism and student entry from countries who do not have a record of good covid control? No thanks

          I've got no problems with the trajectory we are on…..waiting for research and carefully opening borders etc when it is safe to do so. We can be sensible and go out and about or we could join the mythical ones who are fearful. Again no thanks and yes to going out and about in a sensible way.

    • mary_a 3.3

      Ed (3) … yes

  4. KJT 4

    The obvious question, which Bill, of course, doesn't ask.

    With successive waves, the rate of hospitalisations, and deaths will reduce anyway, because the most susceptible in a population where COVID has been widespread have already either, died, recovered or been vaccinated.

    So that even if the new varient was more severe. The number hospitalised or dying will reduce

    It doesn't prove the new strain necessarily, is "milder".

  5. Just Saying 5

    I haven't commented here for ages.

    Since the covid stuff began, even well before, I'd come back here. Maybe my timing was off, but what I kept finding was groupthink. As far as the covid issues, that meant adherence to a strange party line that seemed to have begun as a democrat vs republican tribalism that managed to spread to allied-seeming tribes in NZ.

    Which seemed to interfere with the ability to think.

    'Our sideism' is not thought.

    So I'm glad to see this post. Agree or disagree it is the first sign of something important. This partisanship has really focussed light on what seems to be a really disturbing issue. Democracy ended. Not just for a reasonable period of responding to a crisis, in the manner necessary, but to an extreme degree and way past its use-by date. Censorship and scapegoating of scientists and other relevant authorities, as well as the public prevailed. Lies proliferated amidst an atmosphere of seemingly hyped fear and confusion. In NZ I watched in horror as the public seemed to collaborate in being treated like five year olds, predictably turning on the usual suspects, as well as anyone who asked any relevant questions.

    Maybe I missed the robust debate I had been hoping to find here. I didn't want to argue but it seemed that in the absence of debate, that was all that was left. And it made me very sad.

  6. Fran 6

    Thanks for this post Bill, finally some real sanity in this mess. I have been really disappointed at the shutting down of discussion about covid and the govt. response on this site. As a left wing site the acceptance of and often the cheerleading for the discrimination of the traffic light system, the mandating of a medical procedure for people to stay employed and all the other things we have been living through has blown my mind.

    So again, thank you Bill for starting the conversation about this.

    • Julian Richards 6.1

      @fran so very true!

      Bill seems to have retained his reason and sanity, thank goodness.

  7. Bill 7

    Thank you for the notes of encouragement peeps. To be honest, I'd stayed well away from here for much the same reason some of you are touting. But this shit has run so far and so deep that…well, fuck it. And I know that I'll get slammed in post after post after comment – so I really do appreciate the presence of you all.

    • RedLogix 7.1

      Fenton's latest YT on the ONS data got taken down. I watched it last night before Big Brother got to it – it was perfectly sane and authoritative. You only have to scan his pre-COVID work to understand this guy is a bona-fide world authority on Causal Inference – which is why they're clearly afraid of what he's saying.

        • RedLogix 7.1.1.1

          Yes, thanks for that fresh link. It's the first time I've seen the YT censors in action like this in real time – and the question that it always raises in my mind is, "if I can see them doing this what else are they doing that I cannot see?"

          Which is a bloody shame because until recently YT has built into a remarkable resource, but they will destroy it if this pattern continues.

          • Bill 7.1.1.1.1

            And Malone gone from Twitter.

            Rogan gone from youtube.

            Journalist after commentator "frozen out" from legacy outlets (Matt Taibbi, Aaron Mate, Greenwald…etc, etc, etc following on from Ventura, Hedges….)

            Left wing channel after left wing channel on youtube demonetised and then hit with relegatory algorithms since 2016.

            Seems Rumble, Rokfin, Substack and Gettr are where the ostracized go. No doubt, as happened with Parler, after attempts to delegitimise and depopulate them fail, the server hosting will be pulled.

  8. pat 8

    The difference between 'trust' and 'blind trust'…..question.

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    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago
  • Bring out your Dad
    Happy fourth anniversary, Pandemic That Upended Bloody Everything. I have been observing it by enjoying my second bout of COVID. It’s 5.30 on Sunday morning and only now are lights turning back on for me.Allow me to copy and paste what I told reader Sara yesterday:Depleted, fogged and crappy. Resting, ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • Bring out your Dad
    Happy fourth anniversary, Pandemic That Upended Bloody Everything. I have been observing it by enjoying my second bout of COVID. It’s 5.30 on Sunday morning and only now are lights turning back on for me.Allow me to copy and paste what I told reader Sara yesterday:Depleted, fogged and crappy. Resting, ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • Bring out your Dad
    Happy fourth anniversary, Pandemic That Upended Bloody Everything. I have been observing it by enjoying my second bout of COVID. It’s 5.30 on Sunday morning and only now are lights turning back on for me.Allow me to copy and paste what I told reader Sara yesterday:Depleted, fogged and crappy. Resting, ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago
  • The bewildering world of Chris Luxon – Guns for all, not no lunch for kids
    .“$10 and a target that bleeds” - Bleeding Targets for Under $10!.Thanks for reading Frankly Speaking ! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.This government appears hell-bent on either scrapping life-saving legislation or reintroducing things that - frustrated critics insist - will be dangerous and likely ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    3 days ago
  • Expert Opinion: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.
    It hardly strikes me as fair to criticise a government for doing exactly what it said it was going to do. For actually keeping its promises.”THUNDER WAS PLAYING TAG with lightning flashes amongst the distant peaks. Its rolling cadences interrupted by the here-I-come-here-I-go Doppler effect of the occasional passing car. ...
    3 days ago
  • Manufacturing The Truth.
    Subversive & Disruptive Technologies: Just as happened with that other great regulator of the masses, the Medieval Church, the advent of a new and hard-to-control technology – the Internet –  is weakening the ties that bind. Then, and now, those who enjoy a monopoly on the dissemination of lies, cannot and will ...
    3 days ago
  • A Powerful Sensation of Déjà Vu.
    Been Here Before: To find the precedents for what this Coalition Government is proposing, it is necessary to return to the “glory days” of Muldoonism.THE COALITION GOVERNMENT has celebrated its first 100 days in office by checking-off the last of its listed commitments. It remains, however, an angry government. It ...
    3 days ago
  • Can you guess where world attention is focussed (according to Greenpeace)? It’s focussed on an EPA...
    Bob Edlin writes –  And what is the world watching today…? The email newsletter from Associated Press which landed in our mailbox early this morning advised: In the news today: The father of a school shooter has been found guilty of involuntary manslaughter; prosecutors in Trump’s hush-money case ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago
  • Further integrity problems for the Greens in suspending MP Darleen Tana
    Bryce Edwards writes – Is another Green MP on their way out? And are the Greens severely tarnished by another integrity scandal? For the second time in three months, the Green Party has secretly suspended an MP over integrity issues. Mystery is surrounding the party’s decision to ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Jacqui Van Der Kaay: Greens’ transparency missing in action
    For the last few years, the Green Party has been the party that has managed to avoid the plague of multiple scandals that have beleaguered other political parties. It appears that their luck has run out with a second scandal which, unfortunately for them, coincided with Golraz Ghahraman, the focus ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    3 days ago
  • Bernard’s Dawn Chorus with six newsey things at 6:46am for Saturday, March 16
    TL;DR: The six newsey things that stood out to me as of 6:46am on Saturday, March 16.Andy Foster has accidentally allowed a Labour/Green amendment to cut road user chargers for plug-in hybrid vehicles, which the Government might accept; NZ Herald Thomas Coughlan Simeon Brown has rejected a plea from Westport ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • How Did FTX Crash?
    What seemed a booming success a couple of years ago has collapsed into fraud convictions.I looked at the crash of FTX (short for ‘Futures Exchange’) in November 2022 to see whether it would impact on the financial system as a whole. Fortunately there was barely a ripple, probably because it ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    4 days ago
  • Elections in Russia and Ukraine
    Anybody following the situation in Ukraine and Russia would probably have been amused by a recent Tweet on X NATO seems to be putting in an awful lot of effort to influence what is, at least according to them, a sham election in an autocracy.When do the Ukrainians go to ...
    4 days ago
  • Bernard’s six stack of substacks at 6pm on March 15
    TL;DR: Shaun Baker on Wynyard Quarter's transformation. Magdalene Taylor on the problem with smart phones. How private equity are now all over reinsurance. Dylan Cleaver on rugby and CTE. Emily Atkin on ‘Big Meat’ looking like ‘Big Oil’.Bernard’s six-stack of substacks at 6pm on March 15Photo by Jeppe Hove Jensen ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Buzz from the Beehive Finance Minister Nicola Willis had plenty to say when addressing the Auckland Business Chamber on the economic growth that (she tells us) is flagging more than we thought. But the government intends to put new life into it:  We want our country to be a ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • National’s clean car tax advances
    The Transport and Infrastructure Committee has reported back on the Road User Charges (Light Electric RUC Vehicles) Amendment Bill, basicly rubberstamping it. While there was widespread support among submitters for the principle that EV and PHEV drivers should pay their fair share for the roads, they also overwhelmingly disagreed with ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Government funding bailouts
    Peter Dunne writes – This week’s government bailout – the fifth in the last eighteen months – of the financially troubled Ruapehu Alpine Lifts company would have pleased many in the central North Island ski industry. The government’s stated rationale for the $7 million funding was that it ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Two offenders, different treatments.
    See if you can spot the difference. An Iranian born female MP from a progressive party is accused of serial shoplifting. Her name is leaked to the media, which goes into a pack frenzy even before the Police launch an … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    4 days ago
  • Treaty references omitted
    Ele Ludemann writes  – The government is omitting general Treaty references from legislation : The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last Government in a bid to get greater coherence in the public service on Treaty ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • The Ghahraman Conflict
    What was that judge thinking? Peter Williams writes –  That Golriz Ghahraman and District Court Judge Maria Pecotic were once lawyer colleagues is incontrovertible. There is published evidence that they took at least one case to the Court of Appeal together. There was a report on ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Bernard's Top 10 @ 10 'pick 'n' mix' for March 15
    TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: Climate Scorpion – the sting is in the tail. Introducing planetary solvency. A paper via the University of Exeter’s Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.Local scoop: Kāinga Ora starts pulling out of its Auckland projects and selling land RNZ ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The day Wellington up-zoned its future
    Wellington’s massively upzoned District Plan adds the opportunity for tens of thousands of new homes not just in the central city (such as these Webb St new builds) but also close to the CBD and public transport links. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Wellington gave itself the chance of ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 15-March-2024
    It’s Friday and we’re halfway through March Madness. Here’s some of the things that caught our attention this week. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday Matt asked how we can get better event trains and an option for grade separating Morningside Dr. On Tuesday Matt looked into ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    4 days ago
  • That Word.
    Something you might not know about me is that I’m quite a stubborn person. No, really. I don’t much care for criticism I think’s unfair or that I disagree with. Few of us do I suppose.Back when I was a drinker I’d sometimes respond defensively, even angrily. There are things ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to March 15
    Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:PM Christopher Luxon said the reversal of interest deductibility for landlords was done to help renters, who ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Labour’s policy gap
    It was not so much the Labour Party but really the Chris Hipkins party yesterday at Labour’s caucus retreat in Martinborough. The former Prime Minister was more or less consistent on wealth tax, which he was at best equivocal about, and social insurance, which he was not willing to revisit. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #11 2024
    Open access notables A Glimpse into the Future: The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change, Kuhlbrodt et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society: In the year 2023, we have seen extraordinary extrema in high sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and in ...
    5 days ago
  • Melissa remains mute on media matters but has something to say (at a sporting event) about economic ...
     Buzz from the Beehive   The text reproduced above appears on a page which records all the media statements and speeches posted on the government’s official website by Melissa Lee as Minister of Media and Communications and/or by Jenny Marcroft, her Parliamentary Under-secretary.  It can be quickly analysed ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • The return of Muldoon
    For forty years, Robert Muldoon has been a dirty word in our politics. His style of government was so repulsive and authoritarian that the backlash to it helped set and entrench our constitutional norms. His pig-headedness over forcing through Think Big eventually gave us the RMA, with its participation and ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Will the rental tax cut improve life for renters or landlords?
    Bryce Edwards writes –  Is the new government reducing tax on rental properties to benefit landlords or to cut the cost of rents? That’s the big question this week, after Associate Finance Minister David Seymour announced on Sunday that the Government would be reversing the Labour Government’s removal ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Geoffrey Miller: What Saudi Arabia’s rapid changes mean for New Zealand
    Saudi Arabia is rarely far from the international spotlight. The war in Gaza has brought new scrutiny to Saudi plans to normalise relations with Israel, while the fifth anniversary of the controversial killing of Jamal Khashoggi was marked shortly before the war began on October 7. And as the home ...
    Democracy ProjectBy Geoffrey Miller
    5 days ago
  • Racism’s double standards
    Questions need to be asked on both sides of the world Peter Williams writes –   The NRL Judiciary hands down an eight week suspension to Sydney Roosters forward Spencer Leniu , an Auckland-born Samoan, after he calls Ezra Mam, Sydney-orn but of Aboriginal and Torres Strait ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • It’s not a tax break
    Ele Ludemann writes – Contrary to what many headlines and news stories are saying, residential landlords are not getting a tax break. The government is simply restoring to them the tax deductibility of interest they had until the previous government removed it. There is no logical reason ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • The Plastic Pig Collective and Chris' Imaginary Friends.
    I can't remember when it was goodMoments of happiness in bloomMaybe I just misunderstoodAll of the love we left behindWatching our flashbacks intertwineMemories I will never findIn spite of whatever you becomeForget that reckless thing turned onI think our lives have just begunI think our lives have just begunDoes anyone ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Who is responsible for young offenders?
    Michael Bassett writes – At first reading, a front-page story in the New Zealand Herald on 13 March was bizarre. A group of severely intellectually limited teenagers, with little understanding of the law, have been pleading to the Justice Select Committee not to pass a bill dealing with ram ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on National’s fantasy trip to La La Landlord Land
    How much political capital is Christopher Luxon willing to burn through in order to deliver his $2.9 billion gift to landlords? Evidently, Luxon is: (a) unable to cost the policy accurately. As Anna Burns-Francis pointed out to him on Breakfast TV, the original ”rock solid” $2.1 billion cost he was ...
    5 days ago
  • Bernard's Top 10 @ 10 'pick 'n' mix' for March 14
    TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: Jonathon Porritt calling bullshit in his own blog post on mainstream climate science as ‘The New Denialism’.Local scoop: The Wellington City Council’s list of proposed changes to the IHP recommendations to be debated later today was leaked this ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • No, Prime Minister, rents don’t rise or fall with landlords’ costs
    TL;DR: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said yesterday tenants should be grateful for the reinstatement of interest deductibility because landlords would pass on their lower tax costs in the form of lower rents. That would be true if landlords were regulated monopolies such as Transpower or Auckland Airport1, but they’re not, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Cartoons: ‘At least I didn’t make things awkward’
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Tom Toro Tom Toro is a cartoonist and author. He has published over 200 cartoons in The New Yorker since 2010. His cartoons appear in Playboy, the Paris Review, the New York Times, American Bystander, and elsewhere. Related: What 10 EV lovers ...
    5 days ago
  • Solving traffic congestion with Richard Prebble
    The business section of the NZ Herald is full of opinion. Among the more opinionated of all is the ex-Minister of Transport, ex-Minister of Railways, ex MP for Auckland Central (1975-93, Labour), Wellington Central (1996-99, ACT, then list-2005), ex-leader of the ACT Party, uncle to actor Antonia, the veritable granddaddy ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    5 days ago
  • I Think I'm Done Flying Boeing
    Hi,Just quickly — I’m blown away by the stories you’ve shared with me over the last week since I put out the ‘Gary’ podcast, where I told you about the time my friend’s flatmate killed the neighbour.And you keep telling me stories — in the comments section, and in my ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    5 days ago
  • Invoking Aristotle: Of Rings of Power, Stones, and Ships
    The first season of Rings of Power was not awful. It was thoroughly underwhelming, yes, and left a lingering sense of disappointment, but it was more expensive mediocrity than catastrophe. I wrote at length about the series as it came out (see the Review section of the blog, and go ...
    6 days ago
  • Van Velden brings free-market approach to changing labour laws – but her colleagues stick to distr...
    Buzz from the Beehive Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden told Auckland Business Chamber members they were the first audience to hear her priorities as a minister in a government committed to cutting red tape and regulations. She brandished her liberalising credentials, saying Flexible labour markets are the ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • Why Newshub failed
    Chris Trotter writes – TO UNDERSTAND WHY NEWSHUB FAILED, it is necessary to understand how TVNZ changed. Up until 1989, the state broadcaster had been funded by a broadcasting licence fee, collected from every citizen in possession of a television set, supplemented by a relatively modest (compared ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Māori Party on the warpath against landlords and seabed miners – let’s see if mystical creature...
    Bob Edlin writes  –  The Māori Party has been busy issuing a mix of warnings and threats as its expresses its opposition to interest deductibility for landlords and the plans of seabed miners. It remains to be seen whether they  follow the example of indigenous litigants in Australia, ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • There’s a name for this
    Every year, in the Budget, Parliament forks out money to government agencies to do certain things. And every year, as part of the annual review cycle, those agencies are meant to report on whether they have done the things Parliament gave them that money for. Agencies which consistently fail to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Echoes of 1968 in 2024?  Pocock on the repetitive problems of the New Left
    Mike Grimshaw writes – Recent events in American universities point to an underlying crisis of coherent thinking, an issue that increasingly affects the progressive left across the Western world. This of course is nothing new as anyone who can either remember or has read of the late ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Two bar blues
    The thing about life’s little victories is that they can be followed by a defeat.Reader Darryl told me on Monday night:Test again Dave. My “head cold” last week became COVID within 24 hours, and is still with me. I hear the new variants take a bit longer to show up ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • Bernard's Top 10 @ 10 'pick 'n' mix' for March 13
    TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: Angus Deaton on rethinking his economics IMFLocal scoop: The people behind Tamarind, the firm that left a $500m cleanup bill for taxpayers at Taranaki’s Tui oil well, are back operating in Taranaki under a different company name. Jonathan ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • Positive progress for social worker workforce
    New Zealand’s social workers are qualified, experienced, and more representative of the communities they serve, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “I want to acknowledge and applaud New Zealand’s social workers for the hard work they do, providing invaluable support for our most vulnerable. “To coincide with World ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 hours ago
  • Minister confirms reduced RUC rate for PHEVs
    Cabinet has agreed to a reduced road user charge (RUC) rate for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. Owners of PHEVs will be eligible for a reduced rate of $38 per 1,000km once all light electric vehicles (EVs) move into the RUC system from 1 April.  ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 hours ago
  • Trade access to overseas markets creates jobs
    Minister of Agriculture and Trade, Todd McClay, says that today’s opening of Riverland Foods manufacturing plant in Christchurch is a great example of how trade access to overseas markets creates jobs in New Zealand.  Speaking at the official opening of this state-of-the-art pet food factory the Minister noted that exports ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    8 hours ago
  • NZ and Chinese Foreign Ministers hold official talks
    Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Wellington today. “It was a pleasure to host Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his first official visit to New Zealand since 2017. Our discussions were wide-ranging and enabled engagement on many facets of New Zealand’s relationship with China, including trade, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • Kāinga Ora instructed to end Sustaining Tenancies
    Kāinga Ora – Homes & Communities has been instructed to end the Sustaining Tenancies Framework and take stronger measures against persistent antisocial behaviour by tenants, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Earlier today Finance Minister Nicola Willis and I sent an interim Letter of Expectations to the Board of Kāinga Ora. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Speech to Auckland Business Chamber: Growth is the answer
    Tēna koutou katoa. Greetings everyone. Thank you to the Auckland Chamber of Commerce and the Honourable Simon Bridges for hosting this address today. I acknowledge the business leaders in this room, the leaders and governors, the employers, the entrepreneurs, the investors, and the wealth creators. The coalition Government shares your ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Singapore rounds out regional trip
    Minister Winston Peters completed the final leg of his visit to South and South East Asia in Singapore today, where he focused on enhancing one of New Zealand’s indispensable strategic partnerships.      “Singapore is our most important defence partner in South East Asia, our fourth-largest trading partner and a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Minister van Velden represents New Zealand at International Democracy Summit
    Minister of Internal Affairs and Workplace Relations and Safety, Hon. Brooke van Velden, will travel to the Republic of Korea to represent New Zealand at the Third Summit for Democracy on 18 March. The summit, hosted by the Republic of Korea, was first convened by the United States in 2021, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Insurance Council of NZ Speech, 7 March 2024, Auckland
    ICNZ Speech 7 March 2024, Auckland  Acknowledgements and opening  Mōrena, ngā mihi nui. Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho.  Good morning, it’s a privilege to be here to open the ICNZ annual conference, thank you to Mark for the Mihi Whakatau  My thanks to Tim Grafton for inviting me ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Five-year anniversary of Christchurch terror attacks
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Lead Coordination Minister Judith Collins have expressed their deepest sympathy on the five-year anniversary of the Christchurch terror attacks. “March 15, 2019, was a day when families, communities and the country came together both in sorrow and solidarity,” Mr Luxon says.  “Today we pay our respects to the 51 shuhada ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Speech for Financial Advice NZ Conference 5 March 2024
    Speech for Financial Advice NZ Conference 5 March 2024  Acknowledgements and opening  Morena, Nga Mihi Nui.  Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho. Thanks Nate for your Mihi Whakatau  Good morning. It’s a pleasure to formally open your conference this morning. What a lovely day in Wellington, What a great ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Early visit to Indonesia strengthens ties
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters held discussions in Jakarta today about the future of relations between New Zealand and South East Asia’s most populous country.   “We are in Jakarta so early in our new government’s term to reflect the huge importance we place on our relationship with Indonesia and South ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • China Foreign Minister to visit
    Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters has announced that the Foreign Minister of China, Wang Yi, will visit New Zealand next week.  “We look forward to re-engaging with Foreign Minister Wang Yi and discussing the full breadth of the bilateral relationship, which is one of New Zealand’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Minister opens new Auckland Rail Operations Centre
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has today opened the new Auckland Rail Operations Centre, which will bring together KiwiRail, Auckland Transport, and Auckland One Rail to improve service reliability for Aucklanders. “The recent train disruptions in Auckland have highlighted how important it is KiwiRail and Auckland’s rail agencies work together to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Celebrating 10 years of Crankworx Rotorua
    The Government is proud to support the 10th edition of Crankworx Rotorua as the Crankworx World Tour returns to Rotorua from 16-24 March 2024, says Minister for Economic Development Melissa Lee.  “Over the past 10 years as Crankworx Rotorua has grown, so too have the economic and social benefits that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government delivering on tax commitments
    Legislation implementing coalition Government tax commitments and addressing long-standing tax anomalies will be progressed in Parliament next week, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The legislation is contained in an Amendment Paper to the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill issued today.  “The Amendment Paper represents ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Significant Natural Areas requirement to be suspended
    Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard has today announced that the Government has agreed to suspend the requirement for councils to comply with the Significant Natural Areas (SNA) provisions of the National Policy Statement for Indigenous Biodiversity for three years, while it replaces the Resource Management Act (RMA).“As it stands, SNAs ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government classifies drought conditions in Top of the South as medium-scale adverse event
    Agriculture Minister Todd McClay has classified the drought conditions in the Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts as a medium-scale adverse event, acknowledging the challenging conditions facing farmers and growers in the district. “Parts of Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts are in the grip of an intense dry spell. I know ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government partnership to tackle $332m facial eczema problem
    The Government is helping farmers eradicate the significant impact of facial eczema (FE) in pastoral animals, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced.  “A $20 million partnership jointly funded by Beef + Lamb NZ, the Government, and the primary sector will save farmers an estimated NZD$332 million per year, and aims to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • NZ, India chart path to enhanced relationship
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has completed a successful visit to India, saying it was an important step in taking the relationship between the two countries to the next level.   “We have laid a strong foundation for the Coalition Government’s priority of enhancing New Zealand-India relations to generate significant future benefit for both countries,” says Mr Peters, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Ruapehu Alpine Lifts bailout the last, say Ministers
    Cabinet has agreed to provide $7 million to ensure the 2024 ski season can go ahead on the Whakapapa ski field in the central North Island but has told the operator Ruapehu Alpine Lifts it is the last financial support it will receive from taxpayers. Cabinet also agreed to provide ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Govt takes action to drive better cancer services
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Govt takes action to drive better cancer services
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Work begins on SH29 upgrades near Tauriko
    Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Work begins on SH29 upgrades near Tauriko
    Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Fresh produce price drop welcome
    Lower fruit and vegetable prices are welcome news for New Zealanders who have been doing it tough at the supermarket, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. Stats NZ reported today the price of fruit and vegetables has dropped 9.3 percent in the 12 months to February 2024.  “Lower fruit and vege ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Statement to the 68th United Nations Commission on the Status of Women
    Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all.  Chair, I am honoured to address the sixty-eighth session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Speech to the 68th United Nations Commission on the Status of Women (CSW68)
    Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all.  Chair, I am honoured to address the 68th session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government backs rural led catchment projects
    The coalition Government is supporting farmers to enhance land management practices by investing $3.3 million in locally led catchment groups, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced. “Farmers and growers deliver significant prosperity for New Zealand and it’s vital their ongoing efforts to improve land management practices and water quality are supported,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Speech to Auckland Business Chamber
    Good evening everyone and thank you for that lovely introduction.   Thank you also to the Honourable Simon Bridges for the invitation to address your members. Since being sworn in, this coalition Government has hit the ground running with our 100-day plan, delivering the changes that New Zealanders expect of us. ...
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  • Speech to Life Sciences Summit
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