Nu phone who dis?

37 comments on “Nu phone who dis? ”

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1. Ad 1

   6 November 2023 at 8:51 am

   Jones and Peters for a Foreign Affairs+Defence combo.
   • bwaghorn 1.1

     6 November 2023 at 12:45 pm

     Funnily enough they must be 2 of the most experienced ones in the 3 parties, other than brownlee and collins,
     • Ad 1.1.1

       6 November 2023 at 12:57 pm

       Brownlee for Speaker, Collins for Justice and Corrections. Odds on.
       • adam 1.1.1.1

         6 November 2023 at 9:08 pm

         Collins for Justice and Corrections.

         How very third world.
2. Mike the Lefty 2

   6 November 2023 at 9:01 am

   Did you ever get the feeling that you have been had?

   I wonder if all this nonsense is just a diversion from the real thing. Perhaps Seymour, Peters and Luxon are already in serious negotiation and they are playing everyone else for fools. They know how the MSM are preoccupied with personalities and identities and thus can easily be led away from discovering anything important by a few crafted insults and innuendo.

   Maybe I'm paranoid but I can't help thinking that this is just the council of thieves' masterplan and the public circus is a distraction.
   • Ghostwhowalks 2.1

     6 November 2023 at 1:44 pm

     What you see is what you are getting.

     No way Peters will be negotiating – nothing in common to discuss- with the other minor party.
   • Thinker 2.2

     6 November 2023 at 9:06 pm

     I don't think you're paranoid but I also don't think this is a public circus…

     I think that Peters is pleased by the outcome, in the sense that his 8 seats is only 3 MPs short of ACTs 11. Prior to the election, Luxon went from "I would phone him, but I hope I don't need to" to "It looks as if I will need to include Peters somehow" but I think Luxon and Seymour always had in mind a coalition of two, with NZF in there for a bit of extra margin.

     But, look at it this way: Based on the size of the governing coalition, National's 48 seats represents 72% of the vote, ACT has 16% and NZF has about 12%, which doesn't seem to change if National wins Port Waikato. If, as Winston imagines is possible, NZF wins Port Waikato, it will be ACT 16% and NZF 13%. So, the gap between NZF and ACT is going to be only 3 to 4%. Within the margin of error for a standard sample.

     Check Wikipedia – Peters has been in politics for the past 45 years and leader of the party he created for the past 30 years. Seymour has been leader of a party he didn't create for only 9 years.

     Yet, the impression I have is that Seymour still sees himself as the natural-born Number Two. Peters probably has quite the opposite view. IMHO, this is a contest to be the Beta male. Does Peters doff his hat to Seymour, or is it going to be the other way?

     

     Importantly, Peters knows that it will be Luxon that gets most of the blame for the length of time it takes to form a coalition – based on his “I’ve been CEO of Air NZ and now I’m CEO of NZ itself” kind of talk, so Peters has all the time in the world.
3. Tiger Mountain 3

   6 November 2023 at 9:04 am

   Who dis?–Incel man from Epsom…dats who

   In case anyone missed it, the Greens beat Act in party votes.
   From the Electoral Commission site…
   Green–11.60%, 330,883
   Act–8.64%, 246,409

   Natzos and Act did not at all get the victory they thought they had on the night. Labour’s self sabotage with the Cap’n’s calls, and National and Acts big social media spend up remain major stories of the 2023 General Election.

   Agree with Mike the Lefty’s suspicion because all three will support the needs of capital first and foremost, even if Winston is more an old school tory rather than a neo liberal.
   • alwyn 3.1

     6 November 2023 at 11:39 am

     "In case anyone missed it, the Greens beat Act in party votes."

     I'm inclined to think that everyone except the people who actually voted for the Green Party missed it. And I also expect that they don't care.

     Until the Green Party decide that they are willing to deal with both the Labour or the National Party they are going to remain out the back with the kitchen staff where nobody outside their own little circle will notice them or take any interest in them.

     Meanwhile the smaller ACT and NZF parties will be in positions of real power and where they are able to have some real influence over the direction that New Zealand goes.

     C'est la vie.
     • Bruce 3.1.1

       6 November 2023 at 12:26 pm

       Until the fires and floods demonstrate were the real power lies.
     • bwaghorn 3.1.2

       6 November 2023 at 12:51 pm

       Act will never work with labour and until recently where on life support thanks to national, how is that different to the greens
     • Ghostwhowalks 3.1.3

       6 November 2023 at 1:58 pm

       Actorrhoids have never had a Mp in Cabinet – despite their cohabitation with Shipleys Ship of fools and Keys first term where Nats and ACT were a majority.

       Maybe this will change soon but still find the aces held by Peters
     • That_guy 3.1.4

       7 November 2023 at 10:22 am

       The Greens have never ruled out working with National.

       It's just that they would need to be working in the same reality and with the same understanding of the laws of physics, which would mean National would have to move more than they are prepared to do.
4. Dennis Frank 4

   6 November 2023 at 9:21 am

   I thought that the initial contact between the leaders would have been finely choreographed including details of the time the call would be made to who would ring who. There must be staffers working in the background organising this sort of thing.

   Presumption of competence & efficiency may seem sensible but inaccurate I suspect. More likely that both tails are intent on being first to wag the Nat dog.

   Being neolib, Luxon will use incremental steps in process. In practice, this is likely to mean alternating between the prospective partners. Only when a pattern of common ground emerges in the dim recesses of Luxon's mind will we see a troika process begin to gel into a plan for decision-making.
5. Incognito 5

   6 November 2023 at 9:31 am

   What Peters was actually saying is that he didn’t know what the tree emojis (1 teapot + 2 teacups) with the question mark meant, and it was signed “Dave’s".
6. Obtrectator 6

   6 November 2023 at 9:45 am

   When the call finally gets made, it'll be amusing to learn which of them acknowledged lesser status by coming on the line first, so that he had to wait for the other. An old. old power-ploy, and one that’s of excessive importance to some outsize egos.
7. Matiri 7

   6 November 2023 at 10:04 am

   Winnie the vamp

   https://www.newsroom.co.nz/an-ode-for
8. weka 8

   6 November 2023 at 10:56 am

   Assuming Peters is telling truthful truth there (a big assumption), who sends a text to open government coalition negotiations?

   This is the NZ a big chunk of voters wanted. Not allowed to criticise voters of course 🙄
   • AB 8.1

     6 November 2023 at 11:34 am

     It is what a big chunk of voters wanted. and despite numerous commentators describing it as a vote for change, it can equally be seen as a vote against change. Among other things:

     • against doing anything urgently about climate change (mitigation or adaptation)
     • against tackling economic inequality through engineering higher wages, FPAs and benefit increases
     • against improving housing affordability by using the tax system to weaken the demand from investors and by building social housing
     • against addressing deficits in water infrastructure
     • against continuing our 30-40 year long effort to recognise the Treaty and the importance of a Maori voice in public affairs
     • weka 8.1.1

       6 November 2023 at 12:34 pm

       possibly. However what I meant was that a big chunk of people voted for this kind of MMP and coalition building. Whatever else is going on with policy, this undermines democracy. Whether people don't understand that, or do understand and don't care, I don't know. I suspect most people are thinking about it.
     • Ghostwhowalks 8.1.2

       6 November 2023 at 1:52 pm

       All parties in 2019 voted for the Zero Carbo Act – except Seymour. That was when the national caucus was much larger than now.

       The noise from National is really about continuing the taxpayers paying for the farm share of emissions , same as they always have

       Remember it was John Key who went to Paris in 2016 and committed NZ to "30% less by 2030"

       As the Zero Carbon Act is in force cant see a way the election campaign bluster can get around it – except the farmers share being 'socialised'
9. tsmithfield 9

   6 November 2023 at 11:00 am

   Hopefully a lot of the conflict between ACT and NZ First will subside when the are forced to focus on the superordinate goal of governing the country. From the link:

   In social psychology, superordinate goals are goals that are worth completing but require two or more social groups to cooperatively achieve.[1] The idea was proposed by social psychologist Muzafer Sherif in his experiments on intergroup relations, run in the 1940s and 1950s, as a way of reducing conflict between competing groups.

   That study by Sherif is fascinating. And, unfortunately, the type of study that would never get past the ethics committees these days.

   The study was called the Robbers Cave Experiment. The study was designed so conflict would naturally arise between two groups of young people who were both in the same general location, but became aware of each other as part of the experiment.

   Ingroup-Outgroup factors lead to a high degree of conflict and competition between the groups, to the point that the experimenters were quite worried about the degree of angst they had created.

   Various strategies were tried. But the only one that actually worked was creating situations where both groups had to work together to solve over-arching problems affecting both the groups.

   Based on this study, my prediction is that the conflict between ACT and NZ First will reduce substantially once they are forced to work together to meet the overarching super-ordinate goal of governing the country.
   • Dennis Frank 9.1

     6 November 2023 at 11:10 am

     Yeah, you got it. A useful lens into social darwinism. Prescriptions for non-violent conflict resolution have been in circulation the past 4 decades, so even slow-learner conservatives can be expected to cope.
     • tsmithfield 9.1.1

       6 November 2023 at 11:16 am

       I think we have noticed similar when the country has faced major situations over the last decade or so.

       While political parties on both sides of the fence have still had their political differences at these times, they have pulled together a lot more to solve those bigger issues.
   • AB 9.2

     6 November 2023 at 11:38 am

     Change that to – "in social psychology, superordinate goals are goals that are thought to be worth completing" – then you have described such a commonplace of human behaviour that it doesn't require a psychologist to point out.

     The actual goals of NACT-NZF are in my opinion either worthless in themselves, or where they are not worthless, the implementation will be attempted by methods that put them further out of reach
     • tsmithfield 9.2.1

       6 November 2023 at 11:48 am

       I guess any theory is at some level in the category of "thought to be" which is why it is a theory. So, I couldn't disagree with you there in principle.

       The actual goals of the individual parties are not what I am talking about here. Rather, it is the overarching goal of governing the country well that will require all those parties to work together to achieve.
     • tsmithfield 9.2.2

       6 November 2023 at 12:05 pm

       The other thing is, I would agree with you that most of us would intuitively know that subordinate goals help reduce conflict. But the study highlighted that as a highly effective way of reducing conflict.

       In the study, the experimenters tried other strategies as well, from what I remember. For instance, having movie nights where they came together as a group etc. But, it was the superordinate goals that were actually effective.
   • SPC 9.3

     6 November 2023 at 4:09 pm

     We still do these experiments today – it's called reality television in made up environment circumstances.
     • tsmithfield 9.3.1

       6 November 2023 at 4:30 pm

       I think the word "reality" is very loosely applied in "reality" tv shows lol.
10. observer 10

    6 November 2023 at 2:23 pm

    It was so long ago (um, last month) but let's not forget the reassuring words of Willis and Luxon, immediately after the election …

    On the details of negotiations:

    "I've watched New Zealand elections play out over many years, I've been pretty unimpressed with the process in terms of how that gets done." (Luxon)

    Luxon keeping talks confidential | Otago Daily Times Online News (odt.co.nz)

    "We don't want this to turn into side shows and parlour games and media exposés, we want to have respectful, professional, confidential conversations" (Willis)

    National expects confidential coalition talks, Peters not likely to negotiate until special votes counted | RNZ News

    It's not clear what English/Ardern or Bolger/Clark once did that left Luxon so "unimpressed". Perhaps they answered their phones?
    • Thinker 10.1

      7 November 2023 at 8:20 am

      I think it means having a moral compass that allows you to Diss someone before the election then call them "Sir" the day after the official results came out, and still expect voters to trust you…

      Makes Winston sound a bit like Jim Croce's Leroy Brown…

      "Now Leroy more than trouble

      You see he stand 'bout six foot four

      All those downtown ladies call him "Treetop Lover"

      All the men just call him "Sir"
      • Barfly 10.1.1

        7 November 2023 at 12:12 pm

        "Well the two men took to fighting
        And when they pulled them from the floor
        Leroy looked like a jigsaw puzzle
        With a couple of pieces gone"
11. ianmac 11

    6 November 2023 at 3:45 pm

    Talking of power sharing, on Nick's Kōrero today Nick includes an exploration of Alex Stones on Labour/National power sharing. Why not have a Government where a bigger majority of voters chose? (26 + 38%)

    https://open.substack.com/pub/nickrockel/p/a-grand-coalition?r=25honw&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email (Alex's bit is in the last quarter of the page.)

    "To two New Zealand political leaders, a call to responsible democratic leadership."
12. SPC 12

    6 November 2023 at 4:11 pm

    It's all about a one liner at the first three party meeting.

    Be quiet, the adults are talking.
13. observer 13

    6 November 2023 at 4:23 pm

    Every time Ardern went overseas the chorus of chaos would yell "photo op!". Never mind that she was doing the same things as Key, Clark and other previous PMs, attending the UN, signing trade deals, etc. She was Jacinda, therefore a dimbo bimbo who only wanted to look pretty on telly … because "Stardust".

    And now … what is Luxon desperate to do? Go overseas and do the photo-op, of course. (Yes, the PM should be at APEC … but only if he's the big bloke CEO, it seems).

    For Seymour and Peters, it's about the next 3 years. For Luxon, it's about next week.

    Newsroom reports:

    “Realistically, Seymour and Peters don’t place anywhere near as much importance on Luxon being there, but it certainly works to their advantage and their chance of cutting a deal knowing it matters to him.”

    In-Person Government Negotiations Slow Going | Newsroom
    • Ghostwhowalks 13.1

      7 November 2023 at 8:31 am

      Yes. hes very photo op focused.

      During election campaign he would have the obligatory local candidates as backdrop for a media question and answer….. except in Christchurch where the 'ancient' Gerry Brownlee was nowhere to be seen amoung the younger newer faces.

      Cleverly during the news segments Luxon would be an 'action' sequence during the walk around , not just "walking around' or talking but involved with the people – all staged of course.
14. Thinker 14

    7 November 2023 at 8:39 am

    To be fair, it would be better for a Pm-elect to stay away.

    Despite the group-hug photos, things like APEC are a jostling for power and one-up-manship, and it would be better to send someone with plausible deniability "Sorry, I can't promise anything, I'm not Luxon" than it would be to have to say "Yes, I'm Luxon but can't promise anything while others are running Aotearoa as a caretaker government (because I haven't been able to conclude coalition talks with two subordinate politicians)".

    Karma is a wonderful thing to watch, from the outside looking in.

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