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6:00 am, October 1st, 2021 - 103 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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The Government is assigning itself the ability to delay local body elections as it chooses?
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2109/S00275/government-wants-power-to-delay-local-elections-through-2023.htm
from your link
Would you be comfortable with this if National were to attempt that, or worse even ACT?
Personally i believe that no election should be postponed unless really there is a good reason given, and currently that is not the case. So the question remains, is our government expecting worse to come? Or is that just a line up all the ducks in a row type prep.
What do you think Robert?
I think the government is allowing for a worst case scenario should the pandemic take a turn for the worse. It is only a temporary measure but I would be interested to see why it unlimited in how many times the local elections can be delayed and more detail on the thinking.
Then the government should openly discuss this and not use 'emergency' rule. The US had a full outbreak last year in many places and voted.
And how do you know it is a temporary measure, as nothing in the article speaks of that. OR is that wishful thinking?
Again, would you be comfortable if National or ACT or an N/A government were to do that?
I agree!
Hi Sabine it says so in the Radio NZ article yesterday. I can't seem to post the link sorry. The RNZ story is less over-egged than the scoop story.
National has done it with Canterbury Regional Council ECAN for several years but not for the public good – it was to keep the dairy farmers happy essentially so they could increase irrigation and not worry about pollution of waterways.
As I said, I'd like to hear the detail of the reasoning. On the face of it it sounds sensible to have it be possible to postpone local government elections during a pandemic as a temporary measure. Even though it's a postal vote, it would still require many people throughout the country to travel and meet for it to happen.
I agree with Pingao. I am not anxious about this, but my Nat/ACT voting friends are.
Any external factor that significantly compromised participation by the voters would be a sufficient reason (e.g. war, natural disaster, pandemic). Any suspension should be time-limited and any extension should require justification by a court or in Parliament, or whatever. If ACT or National proposed something like that I would be fine with it.
The press release smells of more Nat mischief-making. And if you remember what National did with suspending ECan, this line is real hypocritical doozy "National will keep fighting Labour’s attempts to diminish local democracy. "
So you would be ok with N/A government to do this too then?
The press release doesn't tell us what "this" is – it just scaremongers. I'd have to go and read the Bill and life is too short.
I broadly outlined at 1.1.2 what I think would be acceptable, and if the actual Bill overstepped that, I would oppose it whoever did it. That's assuming I could even understand the Bill or muster the energy to try. Point is, I'm not going to get agitated into kneejerk expostulations after reading some Nat bullshittery.
the point that i am trying to make – and this bill was introduced, unless we are now calling everything that is said by the oppostion a lie – is would you be ok with National/Act doing this, and would you then also call the opposition 'fearmongers' for pointing out that this might not be a totally democratic thing to do.
I would also like to point out that last year we had elections. During a pandemic, with no one vaccinated and as always one single case away from lockdown.
The US had local and federal elections last year, with Covid killing people left right and centre.
So why do you think it would be ok? Consider also the fact that local elections are not in person but by mail.
I would want to know if "without constraint" is actually true. I'm not trusting a National Party press release to tell me that it is.
chances are that without that Press release you would not even know about it.
That is why any government of any stripes and colors needs an opposition.
I agree with AB.
Can we trust National? At your peril IMHO and same with Rimmer. I think Labour and Jacinda in particular has won some well earned brownie points for handling covid and would be almost be trusted to do the right thing for Aotearoa and not put one over us. Except the anti vaxxers will see only evil Govt domination strategy, but that's their problem.
So you are ok wiht Labour potentially suspending/delaying elections?
If necessary yes, and in a pandemic it could be more than once.
Sorry, I do not entirely agree. Only those who have not experienced the erosion of democracy before will agree to any, even if it looks on the surface reasonable. Firstly, the public needs to be consulted. Lets just say they pay through their nose for those jobs (rates).
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52308002
"The enemies of freedom have pushed the false narrative that democracy is in decline because it is incapable of addressing people’s needs. In fact, democracy is in decline because its most prominent exemplars are not doing enough to protect it. " end quote
https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2021/democracy-under-siege
"A good reason" is the sticking point . That's always a matter of opinion.
The easiest thing is to never have a postponement. Elections should go ahead. If there are extraordinary circumstances? Tough.
Say it's Election Day tomorrow and there's a big earthquake tonight. Most will still be able to vote. Every area is bound to have some able to vote. The main problem? Some polling staff may not be available.
Bastards!
Hard to tell what they’re barking at this time.
https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/bills-and-laws/bills-proposed-laws/all
It appears that National and ACT want more time. In fact, National will vote for it, as stated by Chris Bishop during the debate in Parliament:
I quite liked the response by Julie Anne Genter:
https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/hansard-debates/rhr/combined/HansDeb_20210929_20210929_28
He's a bit late – https://legislation.govt.nz/act/public/2001/0035/latest/LMS350017.html is the relevant legislation, and it was added in May 2020. Maximum delays are 6 weeks at a time, although they can be delayed.
The Chief Electoral Officer can delay the general election as well, circumstances requiring.
It’s rare I agree with Chris Trotter, but he’s on the money with this one.
http://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/2021/10/thoroughly-planned-and-carefully.html
“And its target, plainly, was the huge number – well over 400,000 – of National Party voters who defected to Labour in last year’s general election. The voters who rewarded Jacinda Ardern for getting them (and the rest of New Zealand) through the worst (or so they thought!) of the Covid-19 Pandemic.
Because, as Key the political strategist understands with crystal clarity, these are the only people who matter to National. Their sheer numbers represent something pretty close to 20 percent of the electorate. Win them back and National instantly regains electoral competitiveness. Fail to win them back, and National has no viable pathway to power. Clearly, Key is of the view that the present leader of the National Party either cannot, or will not, grasp this – the central reality of contemporary New Zealand politics – and he intends to do something about it.”
This government needs more challenge the longer it deprives its citizens of rights.
But I'd be surprised if Key has moved the dial at the next opinion poll.
[user name and e-mail address fixed]
"…it deprives its citizens of rights."
More accurately – it deprives its citizens of some rights while protecting other, higher priority, rights. (Namely the right to life.) Support from the community is a result of this tradeoff being widely accepted.
In fact, all that high vaccination rates do is shift this balance of rights. The likelihood of dying reduces, therefore lockdowns don't improve the right to life to a degree that will justify the loss of the right to freedom of movement.
Further, the reason our right-wing comrades dislike lockdowns is that they appear not to prioritise rights in the same way. Specifically, they seem to prioritise their right to freedom of movement over other people's right to life.
Rights as in human right, the right to be able to make a living and have a roof over the head, food on the table and clothes on their back is universal. There is no trading off with something or someone.
As for protecting everybody's right of expression or their belief, that stands to vote. In a true democratic society any vote casted will have to be accepted. In case of vaccination, once the majority (90%?) of people is, normal life ought to resume. There will always be a risk to catch something but people also need the freedom to go about their daily life's. We had 500 people die each year from the flu before Covid. Even though vaccination is available. Everybody knows the risk and as adults with a conscious mind we have to take responsibility.
o.ac.nz/otagomagazine/issue45/inbrief/otago664450.html#:~:text=Research%20by%20the%20University%20of,biggest%20single%20infectious%20disease%20killer.
I think Sir John has basically pulled the rug out from under Judith Collins. Just a question of time. She’s been shafted by her former boss.
The Democratic management in the Senate is in deep, deep trouble.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/infrastructure-reconciliation-debt-shutdown_n_6154cc68e4b099230d1ea1c5
when you run R in places of D in order to 'win' and then wake up to the fact that indeed R's are R's.
Some of that is a natural consequence of the R Party becoming so extreme that previous Rs have defected to D.
Maybe someone needs to take Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin aside and quietly explain that unless they support Biden's bill:
And then, even if they back down and support the bill, do these things anyway.
Manchin faced a contested primary last time he ran, won heavily, and then his opponent from that primary was the D candidate in the other WV senate seat in 2020 and got trounced in the general election.
Sinema is toast however.
Who cares hopefully their rotten system will go broke an hopefully they wont bore us to death with the details for months like they did last time !!
This is no slight on any particular party. As it is all MPs. (That comment was aimed at Incognito btw, before he bans me again lol)
Was watching the AM show this morning and it happened to be David Parker who got the question any random MP could have.
You say you feel peoples pain during lockdown, are MPs on 80% wages again like last time? (That wasn't the wording, but was the gist of it)
Full pay was the answer.
Sorry to be cynical but find it a bit annoying, to see MPs from all sides chanting we are all going through this, while they are on full pay and half are probably in Welly, deciding whether to go to Logan Brown or Whitebait today.
Yes, that will probably piss some viewers right off.
They will be awfully hungry if they turn up at Whitebait for lunch.
It closed permanently in, if I remember correctly, March 2019.A shame. It was a great place to eat although very expensive.
I suspect you are not a Wellingtonian.
I suspect you don't understand I am a Wellingtonian, but just can't afford to eat at ponsey places, and don't note down which have shut
Fair enough though. Replace that one with the other ponsey place Winston eats at
Green Parrot?
Charge about 30 bucks for a breakfast, ffs
Just looked.
22 bucks for a cheese omelette and 20 bucks for fried eggs. I mean wtf?
It must be licensed for him to have breakfast there?
A gorgeous comment. Now just come and clean the coffee of the keyboard of my computer. I was just having a cup when I read this.
Their serving hours are apparently from 11 am until midnight. The opening time should suit Winston's night-owl habits but closing at midnight sounds as if it could be a problem for him.
Thanks for the laugh though.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/local-papers/the-wellingtonian/2721809/Restaurant-review-The-Green-Parrot
Along with friends I used to go there in the 1960's when I was a student at Vic and afterwards when I was working but still single. The staple item we had was the mixed grill. As far as I can see from the 2009 review it didn't change in the 40+ years from when I went there to 2009 and probably hasn't changed since.
As Joe's review puts it " Steak, chops, lambs fry, bacon, sausages and meat patties, served with traditional New Zealand salad and chips.". I certainly wouldn't think of trying to eat such a plateful today. It was enormous. The only places I have seen meals that large since then were in outback roadhouses in Australia where they had such meals for the road train drivers.
I can't think of any occasion I have been to the Green Parrot in the last 50 years. Even nostalgia isn't going to get me back these days though. Giving up eating there is probably why I'm not any heavier than I was in those days of my youth.
Thank you for the link. That certainly is a place that picked a menu for its target clientele and never changed it.
TBF it is bloody nice and you do get a good feed.
Just pricey
Jojo's first day thru The Gate
Sobering
Auckland Hospital is preparing to with deal with an average of six Covid-19 deaths a week next year, even with a 90 per cent vaccination rate.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300420299/covid19-auckland-hospital-rapidly-preparing-for-border-reopening
I would trust their projections over Shaun Hendy's any day.
🙄 I think you will find if you were to read the short Stuff article linked to above that their projections are based on Shaun Hendy's modelling.
Shaun Hendy's modelling covers a range of variables with differing outcomes and what has been in the public's attention 7,000 pa deaths was based on 1 scenario, another has it with NIL deaths 95% over 5 vac and a high VE.
https://cpb-ap-se2.wpmucdn.com/blogs.auckland.ac.nz/dist/d/75/files/2017/01/modelling-to-support-a-future-covid-19-strategy.pdf
Exactly.
What's VE?
Vaccine effectiveness – Table 1. Vaccine effectiveness parameters chosen to reflect estimates of the effectiveness of the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccine after 2 doses [5].
For those with a little time the link to Hendy's model contains greater depth with various assumptions and modelled outcomes than the headline numbers a few days ago of 7,000 deaths and massive hospitalisations. One good thing about this blog there is always someone out there to give greater clarity or challenge perceptions.
thanks! Don’t have time to read right now, so appreciate the explanation
Since you seem to know, what were Hendy’s predictions again for the ADHB under similar assumed conditions? Or are you just trolling again?
My response if you followed the path is 6.1.1.2 which was replying to Macro 6.1.1. (which refers to Hendy's moddelling) I thought that was how things were am I wrong in that and if so perhaps you could be so kind as to point out where my error is ?
How is that trolling ? and if so then almost every comment on this site as I read them follows a similar pattern, are most contributors here also trolling and deserve the same attention ?
Incog was replying to someone else.
OK thanks it is tough living in Auckland, many are on edge 🖖, perhaps a Game of Thones, Chernobbyl (Things are tougher for others) or Star Trek binge is required to settle down !!
I just watched The Expanse (rewatched the first few series and then saw the last one for the first time). Fantastic stuff.
I suspect that attending to people's stress is being under valued atm. Hard to tell though, the MSM are reporting selectively. Would love to see some research on how a range of Aucklanders are going.
Could always try Vigil'ant, with gratitide, sponsored by nuclear free TVNZ On Demand.
One in the household has been watching and greatly enjoying "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel", but I prefer SiFi – But we all need some cheering up.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Marvelous_Mrs._Maisel
That is one hospital Jimmy.
Sobering indeed.
https://twitter.com/nickjonesnzer/status/1443667060261720072
The article simply said the hospital made an assessment based on this scenario, and that others in Auckland and nationwide were doing the same.
Others have noted this is one scenario in the Hendry recent modelling.
Whether they made any variation based on local health demographics or urban setting is not stated.
They do say they and other hospitals will need more ICU nurses.
One wonders if Andrew (washing my hands over and over again) Little will blame Health Boards for lack of such nurses – given his tactic of placing blame on medicinal marijuana industry if people suffer at the end of the interim regime.
Here's hoping this pig of a man is held to account for his vile, misogynist bullying.
After Stuff published a story about the case in April, a collection of more than 70 advocates and academics wrote an open letter to Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern calling for action. The documents outline how the Judicial Conduct Commissioner Alan Ritchie chose to investigate their concerns as a complaint.
The documents, available only to complainants in the Judicial Conduct Commission case, centre on a series of complaints about the Hawke’s Bay-based Judge Callinicos, arising in April this year.
The first relates to the case of Mrs P, a domestic abuse victim wrongly convicted of perjury in the district court in 2018, an ordeal that saw her lose her job as a teacher and spend a year living in a garage on home detention.
[…]
At the same time, unbeknownst to the public, there had been multiple other complaints about Callinicos’ behaviour during hearings in another Family Court case about a child named “Moana” in Oranga Tamariki care.
Those complaints also revolved around bullying – three social workers involved in the case were so badly treated they had to have psychological support – and what the judges describe as a “disproportionate” response to the Oranga Tamariki lawyers who appeared before Callinicos.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/126546393/bullying-excessive-partisan-and-demeaning-supreme-court-justice-slams-judges-treatment-of-abuse-victim
Weren't those three the social workers who were caught up in the Department lying to the Court?
I hope that this does not turn into another affair like that of Peter Mahon. Will we get another Judge who has embarrassed the Crown being destroyed by the rest of the Justice system.
It is a bit disingenuous to equate the Peter Mahon case with the current case. To begin with, it wasn’t the justice system who were embarrassed by Mahon's Erebus judgement. It was the PM of the day RD Muldoon who, together with a few Air NZ chiefs, set up the inquiry with the expectation that Mahon would follow the agreed line and come down with an erroneous judgement. He refused to play ball and came down with the truth so they destroyed the man and his professional integrity. It killed him.
It was among the lowest and most corrupt times involving a former PM in the history of this country.
Muldoon wasn't actually involved in the matter. He also never commented on the subject, at least while the enquiry was going on and in the appeals later on.
The Government, and a Minister, are of course responsible for Orangi Tamariki. I don't think anyone in the Cabinet was directly responsible of course. They were probably lied to like everyone else.
The fix certainly seems to be in to nobble Judge Callinicos though doesn't it. He had the nerve to point out the totally inappropriate behaviour of a couple of judges who are senior to him and that just isn't done.
Nonsense.
I had cause to follow the tragedy closely from the night it occurred through to the release of the Justice Mahon report and beyond. I've read a great deal of material over the years pertaining to the matter.
As Justice Mahon said: it was "an orchestrated litany of lies" and it went all the way to the office of the PM, Rob Muldoon. He was in it up to his neck from the start. The whole affair was premised on the desire of the government and Air NZ to avoid all culpability. So, they tried to pin the blame on the pilots who had been supplied with wrong coordinates. That, in a nutshell, is what happened.
It will go down in history as the moment when Muldoon and his cohorts hit the bottom of the barrel.
Who was the judge who convicted her of perjury?
totally being called out for lying, being found out for lying makes people look bad. Indeed. Generally those that do the lying. But then who knows. Words only mean what ever someone means when they use them.
I don't know about the perjury case but the case involving 'Moana' is/was far from straightforward.
The judgment, as reported, by Callinicos J in that case was very careful. The three social workers and the dept itself did themselves no favours in their focus despite them saying, often, that their 'focus was on the child'. When questioned this came down down to that what they really they meant their focus 'was on the child as long as doing the best for the child did not contradict or conflict with the social workers own views'. It was clear that the judge had misgivings about the advice that they were putting forward to him.
In fact it does not surprise me at all that these social workers have hitched themselves to the perjury case. A bit like paraphrasing the Mandy Rice-Davies quote 'Well they would do (say) that wouldn't they?"
From a newsroom article….https://www.newsroom.co.nz/judges-examination-she-was-in-the-box-just-crying
1 'A woman who appeared in a Family Court hearing brought by her ex-husband over a challenge to a separation of assets told Newsroom earlier this year that comments about her character by Judge Callinicos, including that she was “inherently dishonest”, manipulative and devious, had amounted to “sustained hounding and bullying”.
2 The judge found for her ex-husband, awarding him further assets, and he won a large award of costs, ultimately leading to her bankruptcy.
Paras 1& 2 appear to be about Callinicos. Not clear if this judgement was taken further.
3 The woman was then wrongly convicted by another judge of perjury over a document and sentenced to a year’s home detention, ending her career. This conviction was quashed by the Court of Appeal, in which three justices declared her conviction a miscarriage of justice and questioned the reasoning and comments by the lower court judges.
Para 3 relating to perjury was not Callinicos.
New report on transgender in sport
The Sports Councils Equality Group (SCEG) said "for many sports, the inclusion of transgender people, fairness and safety cannot co-exist in a single competitive model".
https://www.bbc.com/sport/58732146
Good article on this issue here, about a transgender athlete who competed at the Tokyo Olympics.
I put up a post.
If anyone has good references for the science on the advantages of male puberty in sports, I'd like to add them to the post.
https://thestandard.org.nz/revisiting-sports-trans-inclusiveness-and-womens-sex-based-rights/
BoysVsWomen.com – – pretty clear that male puberty is a huge advantage
The vast majority of human births are XX or XY. When there are genetic abnormalities we end up with different combinations. So it is true sex is not binary however, for 99 per cent of the population it is. [more like 99.98%]
There are ethical considerations of course. But surely the safety of women competitors in contact sports should be at the top. Then quibble over advantages in strength, endurance, speed, conferred by male physiology.
thanks Rob. My head's not good with graphics at the moment, will save for later.
a couple of twitter threads.
Jon Pike
@runthinkwrite
@OU_Philosophy
, Senior Lecturer in Philosophy. Political Philosophy, and the Ethics and Metaphysics of Sport. Co-convenor
@OU_GCN
Runner. Lefty.
https://twitter.com/runthinkwrite/status/1443492763518050304
Just heard an add on natrad that Kim Hill will be talking to Peter Thiel, tomorrow morning, I hesitate to use the word 'interview' these days
WellJohnr if you can't handle an intelligent interviewer then stick to your stupid mate Hosking.
As it happens I rate Kim Hill the best there is and am an avid listener.
I am sure Kim will do the best job that she can within the confines that I suspect her employers place upon her.
As for hosking I have tried to listen to him twice of late to see what all the criticism was about. I couldn't last the distance, he's daft as a brush and the negativity is on the wrist slashing scale
Sharp analysis of The Hosk. 5 minutes max of his hi-speed rabbitting on arrogant rants with their the too frequent & irritating radio ads is about all I can stand before I have to switch the damn radio off to preserve its life.
My apologies Johnr. Yes she is the best there is, in fact she is a gem.
Thiel meets steel.
Shit:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-complete-carnage-reports-of-huge-gathering-in-west-auckland/OURNRWTZY7WN7SUDM4GXECS4PE/
This has the potential to cost Jacinda the next election. The perception of the Covid response being held hostage by criminals is a terrible look.
Yeah Police letting these things happen is ridiculous, especially if they decide to come down hard on Tamaki's flock tomorrow… and then if they don't more and more ordinary people are going to go well fuck it why should I follow the rules if all these other groups don't have to, it's damn close to a no win situation now.
Yeah, but turning up with enough cops to arrest/disperse everyone in that particular crowd would probably have bigger risks for killing people than the stupidity of the gathering.
Not sure which way I'd go on that one.
"Those gathered were "compliant" with police and moved on to another location."
yeah. Delicate work, that.
that's a shockingly badly written article. Are journos restricted in their movements under L3?
Clay target shooting has got to be the weirdest way to end a major political career I've heard of.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/nsw-premier-gladys-berejiklian-to-make-significant-announcement-following-anti-corruption-wathcdog-bombshell/LGZ7CFGNZR4SQFZL6AKCHPDUTI/
Gladys says goodnight, toodle pip.
Interesting events over in NSW.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/icac-investigation-live-updates-gladys-berejiklian-investigated-over-daryl-maguire-dealings-20211001-p58wfi.html
Yes, resigned under a bit of a cloud to say the least.
why make stupid, fatuous, throw away promises if you don't want people to remember them?
[TheStandard: A moderator moved this comment to Open Mike as being off topic or irrelevant in the post it was made in. Be more careful in future.]
Today's AFR:
…corrupts?
Not only is Gladys Berejiklian common-or-garden Liberal corrupt, but she managed to bring death and economic pain to nearly 20million people.
That is quite some political legacy.
Fancy that, Mike Hosking's idol biting the dust.
Lewandowski has been replaced as head of the MAGA PAC after rumours of an affair with the North Dakota Governor (brunette with no running name).
As to her interest
She wants to run for President. As to the rumours she said “she was of a God fearing family”.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/kristi-noem-affair-allegations-lewandowski/2021/09/29/859ad8da-2154-11ec-9309-b743b79abc59_story.html
This from last weekend:
Trump donor: Corey Lewandowski made unwanted sexual advances
"A Donald Trump donor is accusing Corey Lewandowski, one of the former president’s longtime top aides, of making unwanted sexual advances toward her at a Las Vegas charity event over the weekend.
Trashelle Odom, the wife of Idaho construction executive John Odom, alleges that Lewandowski repeatedly touched her, including on her leg and buttocks, and spoke to her in sexually graphic terms. Odom said that Lewandowski “stalked” her throughout the evening.
"A Trump spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment, though word of the incident has shaken the former president’s inner circle, several people familiar with the discussions said."
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/29/corey-lewandowski-sexual-advances-allegations-514650
—————————————-
I wasn't sure why there is perturbation in Republican ranks at first until I considered it a bit. The actual assaults, the predatory behaviour, is nothing. It's just Trumpian, such behaviour has been accepted, okayed by all and sundry including all the religious Trump supporters.
The concern will be about the impact on the fund-raising, the money coming in.
The world they populate?
"Soon after the November election, a business colleague of Donald Trump’s close ally Corey Lewandowski offered a whistleblower and convicted ex-banker an expensive deal: In exchange for a $300,000 fee up front—plus another $1 million if successful—the two men would push the then-president for a pardon, according to the ex-banker and an associate who heard the pitch."
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2021/02/corey-lewandowski-allegedly-pitched-more-1-million-trump-pardon/617980/