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6:00 am, July 2nd, 2012 - 67 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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Just in case anyone’s interested:
https://curiablog.wordpress.com/2012/07/01/roy-morgan-poll-late-june-2012/
Yep, continuing trouble for Key, steady improvement for Labour and the Greens. The next election can’t come too soon, especially with Granny echoing the Tory decline in this morning’s poll result.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10816761
Well the poll put National up more then Labour and Greens combined but I agree National would like to be higher (mind you so would every party)
The real problem for National is the lack of mates. They only lead the Government because of the dirty deals in Epsom and Ohariu and the backing of the Maori party. Lose any of those seats and it is Labour with the best chance of forming a coalition.
Good news for Shearer in the Herald poll, too. NZ seems to be warming to him.
“Good news for Shearer in the Herald poll, too. NZ seems to be warming to him”
–Wonder what will happen if Shearer becomes PM, and gets exposed as the plant that he also is, just like Key…
Obama comes to mind, and the “hope” that came with him, violently crushed in front of the eyes of those who were fooled by their desperation for “change”
Didn’t work out too well did it!
What will happen? Shearer will prove himself and competent and capable leader of a progressive, environmentally savvy Government and the good times will come back. However, a small minority of confused NWO conspiriacy theorists will continue to be frustrated when there is no sign that Goldfinger, Dr Evil or KAOS are immimently planning to use death rays from Mars to take over the world.
Voice if you are right about Shearer and the NZ government going forward, not only will I personally be very happy about it, but I will also be very surprised!
Your reference to silly characters from movies is childish, and does nothing to cover up the obvious truth that there are entities which control the planet…here are a couple of blatant ones for you to relate to.
1: The war machine
2: The banking system
Nothing hiding in the shadows with those two, and very real global control, between them they have the majority of the world by the throat!
Both are capable of committing genocide, and currently are doing just that. If you want to ignore that, then so be it, but, by pretending that the elephant, is not in the room, you are endorsing the status quo, and the progressively worse off everyone will become!
Thanks!
Putake, don’t tell me you are one of these people that doesn’t believe conspiring is part of the human condition and, even more, that conspiring doesn’t exist in the world of politics and power?
I’m all for a good conspiracy theory, VTO, but I know that its objective truth that collusion goes on at the highest levels, sometimes for good, sometimes for not so good. But I refuse to put aside the day to day struggles to make NZ and the world a better place just because some people think the fix is in.
“But I refuse to put aside the day to day struggles to make NZ and the world a better place just because some people think the fix is in”
–Voice, that is fine and well, and I agree!
The problem is that people are flying blind in the way that they are trying to make the world a “better place”, we are being robbed of the better place, or the way to go about achieving it, because the “fix is in”.
In order that people can have the best chance to achieve a positive outcome, like a sports team, you have to understand your opposition, otherwise how is the positive result expected to be achieved. Hit and hope is all it becomes, and defeat is the only outcome!
Thats is why, to me at least, it is important that people have some awareness of what we are all up against, see it for what it is, and when that happens, we will have the best chance of impacting the “genuine change”, which only collective understanding can achieve.
Labour at 32% is still behind the 33% when it LOST the 2008 election. Labour is NOT improving its position. 4 years of mushy pathetic leadership continues. They replaced Goff with Sherarer and achhieved what? What?
Give Shearer more time, he has not offended anyone.
If the ratings are still below the 38% level by mid 2013 then it will be time for clean-out of the whole top-tier and their “strategists”!
Remember these things,(polls),have a margin of error of around 3.5%, if you consider that they might be being deliberately or otherwise mistakenly being read from the high end of the margin in the case of the present Government and having what could be considered the other option Labour/Green/NZFirst continually attributed the % from the low end of the margin if you then reverse that an entirely different picture emerges,
Consider recently what we have seen of the Prime Minister, smile’n’wave seems to have deserted the Slippery one and in the last month we have been able to catch glimpses of out-right sniveling from Key,
This has degenerated into the Prime Minister rightly or wrongly feeling under attack from the media beginning to react with anger when pressed by media interviewers on sensitive issues, this hasn’t as yet manifested in our-right abuse from the PM but i can see the point coming where unable to match it with one interviewer or another on an intellectual level Slippery will descend into His form of condescending abuse on one of the national TV channels,
He ain’t in the sort of ugly little grump of a hissy fit mood recently because everything is going swimmingly for National in the polls and by that i mean National’s own internal polling,
To understand the point i am making just consider NZFirst for a moment, in that party’s darkest hour, racked by National’s allegations of scandalous behaviour at the 2008 election NZFirst gained 4% of the vote,
Since that point in time not 1 of the polls broadcast in the mainstream media has put the NZFirst support at more then 3 odd %, yet at the 2011 election NZFirst polled over 6% and there is no logical reason, (except for using the lower % of the margin of error), why NZFirst would be polling less than 5% and i put there support at 5-6%,
If i reverse the margin of error on the 3 main opposition party’s i can attribute 51% of the vote between them with NZFirst a definite 5%+,
I have National polling at 43-47% and that is definitely in the realm of being kind to dumb animals as the Tories little gambling site/poll has National tracking far lower,
Winston probably already knows this but the ‘wild-card’ at and after the next election will probably be for NZFirst dealt off the pack with the name Horan attached, the wannbe next leader of NZFirst with the fake smile switched on and off for the TV cameras has all the attributes of a toy tosser should in the future He not get His way and the opportunity to further Himself via a palace coup present itself…
Roy Morgan results.
Draco, you left out the bit where Labour’s vote increased and Shearer continued his rise as preferred PM. This is the sixth Roy Morgan in a row to have a Labour/Green Government as just as likely, or more likely, than another Tory term.
Kim Dotcom is the gift that keeps on giving. The Herald has obtained emails suggesting that “[t]he Prime Minister’s office was involved in shutting down information showing one government department tipping off another over FBI interest in internet magnate Kim Dotcom long before he was arrested.”
It appears that the action occurred after Kim was arrested.
I suspect there is a killer punch somewhere, some evidence that suggests that Key knew about Kimdotcom since well before the day before the arrest as has been reported.
After all the application was significant enough for the FBI to leak information to the DOL and was then used by Simon Power to decline Dotcom’s application to buy sensitive land.
Are they really suggesting that the PM and Minister in charge of the SIS would not have been told about Kimmy at the same time?
Considering everything the Nats have been doing I would have thought that Labour should be streets ahead in the polls. I am still not confident about Shearer’s ability to lead Labour.
I still hear the same thing I heard from people before the last election. They don’t like Key and National but they feel there is no one else to vote for.
They ignore Labour as an alternative. If they are left they mutter about the Greens, if they are conservative they mutter about NZ First, and if they hate both Winston and the Greens they go back to National as a default position.
National are shooting themselves in the foot right now, but unless Labour steps up, National will win 2014.
+1
People like many Labour policies, they don’t like Labour.
If Labour MPs face that fact, then we could start addressing it (not least by replacing some of the MPs). But it’s an easier ride in caucus to do nothing. So nothing changes.
gobsmacked
What do you know we don’t – that Labour has some policy – please let us in on this.
They should have – the Greens have and its in the open.
Shearer will make a good PM but do Labour have the expertise needed to support him. So few Labour MPs (and Greens) have any outside experience away from the professional politician experience.
Show me a Finance Minister who has any serious experience. Cullen grew into it after many years, and then stuffed it.
Fortran: two Names; Cullen and Cunliffe
1.Cullen
John Shewan, the out-going head of PWC, rates him as the best Finance Minister. One of the last big projects Shewan completed at PWC was to review New Zealand’s last 34 government Budgets.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/politics/7198688/Examining-the-best-and-worst-of-Budgets
2. Cunliffe
Read any speech when he was Finance Spokesperson in the Goff opposition. Read his recent speeches as Economic Development Spokesperson for Shearer.
http://www.labour.org.nz/news/speech-the-dolphin-and-the-dole-queue
http://www.labour.org.nz/news/speech-learning-the-lessons-of-history
http://www.facebook.com/#!/notes/david-cunliffe/get-your-invisible-hand-off-our-assets/10150721718297798
fartrain sounds like you have a PHd in economics with honors like doctor Cullen.
It is worrying Belladonna. And I get very frustrated with the inhabitants of “The Standard” who think that we should rejoice because the joint opposition has a one seat advantage on the polls!
Think back to the various trip-ups there were during Clark’s last term. Then the Natz hammered the bejaysus out of Labour and inflicted fatal body blows. They managed to convince people that Helen lacked integrity!
Is the current Leadership duo connecting with the people of NZ and inflicting injuries on Key? Given the magnitude of the series of GUBU moments (Grotesque, Unbelievable, Bizarre and Unprecedented), the Nats are having a filed day.
What do we have to do?
What do we have to do? Keep the faith, keep connected with our communities and stop mithering. The next Government is going to be Labour led, unless we talk ourselves out of it.
It’s the leadership who are “mithering” (great word!).
The next Government should not just be Labour-led, but Labour/Green. It’s quite achievable, with 40/10, or 35/15, or whatever combo you prefer.
So when Winston Peters attacks Chinese immigrants, should the Labour leader respond:
1) You’re wrong, Winston.
2) I like Winston.
I want to hear 1). But Shearer says 2). That is Labour’s problem, right there. Hoping to cobble something together, with anyone who’s available, rather than saying … “This is US. These are OUR values.”
To coin a phrase, Hope and Change. Not “ooh, let’s see”.
Show me exactly where Peters “attacked” Chinese migrants? Really?
The coiffured one grows a pair and comes out calling the decision to shut down TVNZ 7 “short sighted”. Shame it did not happen a week earlier.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/109651/commercial-station-contract-extended
Crikey. If only there was someone on teh blogs willing to take credit for Dunne’s occasional flashes of belated common sense 😉
Come back Petey all is forgiven!!
No, no, no ….. please, no
has he gone, really ??
A week’s ban for a particularly lame bit of self promotion. I expect he’ll be counting down the minutes till he can start waffling again on the place on earth where he gets taken anywhere near seriously.
TRP I think it’s a mistake to label it as “belated common sense”. It’s more a deliberate positioning strategy.
All the ambiguity around his position on asset sales, and his absence from parliament during all the debates and votes, was designed to allow him to later position himself whichever way the wind happens to be blowing at the time and with a minimal media trail to avoid being bitten in the arse by his own soundbites.
Having (more or less, outside of political circles) succeeded at this, the strategy now is to make lots of noise about TV7 (something National couldn’t give a fuck about either way) so in the buildup to 2014 he’s positioned as ‘the guy who spoke out against National a couple of years ago when they started selling everything’.
It seems an absurdly transparent and impossibly hopeful strategy, relying as it does on the perfect storm of an uninformed public, a bland featureless forgettable public figure and a lazy fourth estate, but 28 consecutive years in parliament does learn you a bit of meteorology.
Felix – You have such a way with words! 😀 And so has UnFrocked Dunne, the spoken ones that is. He has a very nice delivery in a semi-bass tone and sounds So Sincere and Authoritative. I thought Russel Norman was beginning to sound a bit stretched and high the other day. If he wants to get on he could do worse than study what St Peter Dunne.
Yes he definitely has his “Serious Important Person Voice” down pat.
@ prism
Felix not only has a way with words, his insight is remarkable.
Meteorology is the art of observing the pros and cons of the atmosphere, and figuring out how it might apply to the actual weather. Its not easy, and relies on many years of practise. But in the end, Nature will always prevail. A weather forecaster’s best hope is that they agree with Nature more often than they disagree.
Peter Dunne has learnt to apply the same technique to parliament and politics. He’s been very successful thus far, but will it suffice him into old age? I think not.
To be satisfied with an outcome is to know you have made a difference in whatever field of activity you choose to operate. Peter Dunne will have no such satisfaction. He has not contributed one iota to the betterment of his compatriots. Rather, as Te Reo Putake says (below) he has no ambition beyond the personal. As long as he’s financially rewarded and gets thrown a few political crumbs that his dreary support base can laud as acheivements, he”ll never be caught playing hardball.
History will very quickly forget he ever existed!
H’ell remembered for be a Wig for the Tories
Quite right, felix. There’s a cynical element to Dunne that I overlooked completely. He has always had the power to save TVNZ7. If he’d said his asset sales vote depended on it, there would be no need for this post. The thing is, he has no ambition beyond the personal. As long as he’s financially rewarded and gets thrown a few political crumbs that his dreary support base can laud as acheivements, he”ll never be caught playing hardball.
Actually Dunne has spoken in support of TV7 several times that I’ve noticed, most recently on the final Backbenches.
BUT – and it’s a huge but – it’s all bullshit and lip service. He still voted for the budget and he still backs National to shut down any TV channel they wish to.
His one-and-a-half supporters (Pete and Monique) might think it’s nice that he says nice things about TV7 but he’s part of the government that killed it, which, just like all the times he spoke about keeping our water assets before he voted to sell them, renders his words entirely hollow.
Actions speak louder than words.
And now they’re off to the Ombudsman. That’s really socking it to them. TVNZ must be shitting itself.
“a plan, I don’t need a plan, I have confidence!” Who said this, John Key or the king from Penguins of Madasgar?
I see Nick Smith has finally and probably inadvertantly blurted out the true reason for sacking Ecan.
At a federated farmers meeting in the weekend in commenting on proposed new structures for Ecan he said that going back to the past model of purely elected members would lead to the previous urban-rural division which was to blame for the problems.
So there we have it. The sacking was not because Ecan hadn’t sorted out its water plan it was because the water plan did not suit the rural irrigators. Ecan was sacked because the poor farmers weren’t getting their way with water. Once again the National Party and farmers are proved to have lied and deceived to line their greedy pockets with more money.
Did they upset Bill English’s brother?
And Nick Smith’s brother.
What is Colin Craig’s stance on asset sales? Does the Conservative Party leader…
(A) oppose asset sales, as it states on his party website:
-Conservative Party: http://www.conservativeparty.org.nz
(B) oppose asset sales, but wouldn’t let that get in the way of a coalition with National if it meant keeping the centre-right in power?
-NBR Staff: “Conservative Party’s Craig willing to stand in Epsom, ally with National” National Business Review: 07.05.2012.
-”Colin Craig determined to keep National in power” 3 News: 07.05.2012.
(C) opposes asset sales, and backs the Labour/Green CIR petition against asset sales, even given that that’s the core of National’s social spending and government finance policies?
-Colin Craig: “Binding Referenda can’t come soon enough” Scoop: 27.06.2012.
Apparently, all three. That is, depending on which month it is, and whether its core objective of binding citizens referenda can be advanced to support its primary aim,, which is the enforcment of sectarian fundamentalist religious social conservatism… and nothing else matters.
This isn’t serious politics, it’s the mythical Tudor “Vicar of Wakefield“, who changed his denominational affiliation every successive reign- from Catholicism (Henry VII) to Anglicanism (Henry VIII and Edward VI) to Catholicism (Mary I) and back to Anglicanism again (Elizabeth I).
Well Colin Craig should know that business people don’t like you and give you the cold shoulder if they think you might have difficulties at certain times of the month. He had better get himself sorted if he wants to be seated in the member’s stand.
There is nothing impressive about Labour’s result in the Herald poll. Looking at the details (such as we have), Labour are still well behind even among women voters. When you consider that National’s message for the past few months has been “Women, fuck off” (I paraphrase!), on everything from parental leave to class sizes to ECE to the environment, it takes remarkable incompetence not to attract more of their votes away from the government. How many more free gifts do Labour want?
But why would we be surprised? David Shearer has had several chances to make a speech setting out his vision, to connect with actual voters (not caucus hacks), and when he made such a speech, his big headline was … (drum roll) …
to agree with National on suspending payments to the Cullen find.
The strategy is Mallard/Pagani, therefore a proven failure. The leader is nice, but so far a failure, and he has squandered his best asset – the freshness of the outsider. He is mouthing other people’s words, so he is not convincing, so the voters are not convinced. This is entirely predictable.
Yes, Key and National will probably lose the next election. But who to?
The Labour leader needs to stand for something, or stand aside.
gobsmacked
Good line The Labour leader needs to stand for something, or stand aside
“The Labour leader needs to stand for something, or stand aside.”
Or maybe he should just front up and talk the words: “I stand before you as an aside.” And then we can all speculate on who’s thoughts are being conveyed to us…
Gobsmacked, is it really disappointing that Labour has not cut it among women. Perhaps Jacinda Ardern needs to be “augmented” by Lianne Dalziel, an electorate MP?
How mant more opportunities does Jacinda need to make take a role in the minds of the public as the defender of things that are important to women?
If I remember correctly Jacinda was taking a swipe at beneficiaries during the last election campaign,
not the sort of person I want in the Labour Party at all. Methinks it is her good looks that appeal to males rather than any sort of appeal to women.
You do not remember correctly! There is no way Jacinda would do such a thing. Either you lie belladonna or you have been badly misinformed.
I do not lie. I am fairly sure I heard her have a crack at beneficiaries during the election campaign and how disappointed I was. I would rather be wrong than right in this instance though.
I think I also heard David Shearer having a crack at them also during the same campaign.
You did not hear correctly then. David Shearer was not the leader of the Labour Party at the time of the election campaign and he was not the spokesperson for Social Welfare issues. He was the shadow minister for the Sciences, Research and Development. As for Jacinda, whatever you heard her say, you must have misunderstood her words. There is no way she would have a crack at beneficiaries
The LIBOR stand for the basic interest rate on which the entire global banking system is based and it appears that not only Barclay’s bank but the Bank of England and the entire to big to fail system banking system has been rigging them for several decades and not just between 2005 and 2009.
This means that every country, Corporation and second tier bank in the world has been ripped off and fleeced for trillions of dollars. I would have thought that a banker such as John Key who now presides over one of those countries would want to get to the bottom of this?
Here are some questions I would like to ask John Key about the LIBOR rigging scandal?
Murdoch’s calling somebody else “evil”:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/7204857/Murdoch-attacks-Cruise-creepy-Scientology
And since when is what an owner of a newspaper says news, anyway? If there’s any news in it at all it should be the irony in the fact Murdoch’s calling somebody else “evil”.
read todays dimpost.
half the the op-ed page is about tom cruise and his spouse and the real news about asian mudflats gets tucked away in Bob Brockies column.
thats where the newspapers are at these days.
Yep, saw a huge herald article the other day about a rugby player doing up his home. Shit that just isn’t worth reporting is getting greater and greater coverage.
With the announcement that beneficiaries will have to take drug tests and if the refuse they will loose their benefits and if they fail the will loose them too I thought I’d put in proposal what I think the tests our public servants should undergo before being allowed in the political arena!
hey Ev, what is really freaky is it might be that the ‘only’ way banks can make a profit is to rig the market.
If that is the case then the world is really in sh*t street.
No, the banks are up shit creek and the sooner we understand that the sooner we can get rid of them, Total jubilee and no more interest on loans created out of thin air.
Aha to both those hypothesis, up the creek without a paddle as far as the Global free market goes and in most entities where ‘manufacturing production’ has been farmed out to ‘other economies’ profit has simply been exhibited by either the outright fraud of Ponzi-scams or by including what is owed as actual money in the bank…
The only way to make a profit is to rig the market.
Hmmm… complications for the government’s asset sales agenda….. but I’m not sure a tug-of-war between some Iwi and power companies will benefit the average Kiwi tax payer, Maori or Pakeha.
http://www.3news.co.nz/Iwi-should-claim-ownership-of-riverbeds—Turia/tabid/1607/articleID/259865/Default.aspx
Cool, the good old kiwi tradition of a swim down at the swimming hole — gone by lunchtime.
Conclusive proof that “green” and sustainable business works. Chasing fossil fuels will only lead us down a dead end road, the future for Aotearoa is elsewhere Mr Key!
http://localbodies-bsprout.blogspot.co.nz/2012/07/two-business-stories-about-sustainable.html