Carrying my reply to RL over as a starter and because I found it interesting to look at real numbers about an outbreak. Better and more disturbing than fatuous hyperbole about minor restrictions on ‘freedom’ related to a dumbarse virus that just treats such human conceits as a breeding opportunity.
Still I've not advocated for rushing to open the border to Omicron either, but how long until you consider we might be certain? And are we going to set an impossible standard to achieve that certainty?
Seeing what it does in Australia over the next 6-8 weeks would be sufficient to determine if poses a risk to our health systems to the point that it displaces normal loading to the point that people with other critical health issues die of lack of medical attention.
So far that isn't looking good.
The main operational issue is that medical staff with covid-19 (or any other infectious disease) can't attend vulnerable patients. That stresses the remaining staff
NSW is a similar enough state with a more extensive health system. It is also open enough to view the full effects with limited public health measures to see what is likely to happen here.
And that the number of reported cases from PCR testing have jumped from 3763 on Dec 22 to 18278 cases yesterday despite the various PCR testing blockages. It looks like it is still doubling the known community infection rate about every 4 days.
The key measures however are the hospitalisation rate and the staff overload. That isn't looking good at what is still the early surge phase of a variant epidemic.
Hospitalisations have risen to 1,066, up from 901 in the previous reporting period, with 83 patients in intensive care.
There are five times as many people being treated for COVID-19 in the state’s hospitals as there were in mid-December, although the number of people in intensive care has increased at a slower rate.
There isn't enough info to be sure in NSW, but it looks like about a 2 week period from to get from infection to hospitalisation based on the rates of increase. The number of hospitalisations for covid-19 in NSW has risen from 302 on Dec 22 to three times the number. They only had 166 on Dec 15 a week earlier. Can't be sure of the ICU
And here is the important thing.
HSU secretary Gerard Hayes said the increasing number of people being treated in hospital was "more concerning every day".
"I think the key issue here is that while the current variant is not as bad as Delta it will be a larger lot of numbers and the ratio of those numbers to hospitalisations will be potentially the concern."
Mr Hayes said the state's health system would likely reach a critical phase "anywhere within the next two or three months".
Tired and overworked healthcare workers in NSW were left with no choice but to support reducing the isolation rules for asymptomatic staff deemed close contacts of COVID-19 cases.
Under an exemption to the Public Health Order signed by Health Minister Brad Hazzard on Friday night, these staff can now be ordered back to work.
Australian Salaried Medical Officers Federation (ASMOF) NSW president Tony Sara said hospitals were running out of staff and the pressure on the system was enormous.
"We're loading our hospitals with COVID-positive patients who need to be in hospital," Dr Sara said.
"We therefore had to reduce the ISO requirements, we don't agree with it but essentially if the health system is not to collapse then ourselves, the nurses and the HSU [Health Service Union] — we don't have a lot of choice but to agree."
If the rate of hospitalisations keeps rising by 2+ times every week in a nearly fully vaccinated state, you can see why they're worried.
It isn't an issue with how less damaging the omnicron outbreak is. That appears to be about 15-30% of the infection vs hospitalisation rate depending where you look world wide.
It is an issue with the rapid rate of infections rapidly driving up the health system into the ground with larger numbers at a lower rate of infection.
I don't think that vitamin D is going to do much in the short term even if it was efficacious. Not to mention that aussies in summer generate a lot of natural vitamin D along with their sunburn.
The evidence is mounting that Omicron causes less severe disease because it tends to multiply in the throat rather than the lungs. This also explains why it is more contagious. The other good news is that research suggests recovery from Omicron is much quicker.
I agree with you that a major concern is that the rapid spread of the disease means the availability of essential workers such as medical staff is a major concern, and could have a major impact on our health services.
On the positive side, Omicron does appear to peak very quickly with case numbers already dropping in London.
From our perspective, we have to accept that Omicron is going to arrive here, sooner or later.
I think we need to take this opportunity to plan how to mitigate the negative impact on our core services for the short time the virus is a problem. Perhaps steps such as ensuring all essential workers have booster jabs, and perhaps even putting medical staff on a preventative course of antivirals for the short time that Covid is a major issue when it arrives.
Omicron also appears to confer considerable protection against Delta so hopefully by some miracle humankind will be helped out its dreadful flailing incompetence by a chance mutation.
I suspect that we have a lot more waves of covid-19 in our near (ie ~5 year) future.
There is going to have to be some serious tradeoffs for the people dependent on overseas tourism, students, and cheap labour. As well as those expecting to fly anywhere anytime.
Good thing really. We have been getting at least one significiant zoonotic disease emerging in human populations about every 5 years for the two to three decades. Well more than double the emergence rate in the 20th century.
Sheer luck that the others didn't grow to pandemic levels.
I would expect that trend to keep increasing in velocity until late this century. We are a useful vector for species hopper viruses.
"Despite the less than optimal start to 2022, however, health experts both at home and abroad have suggested the new variant – and the next 12 months – could finally signal the end of the coronavirus pandemic's two-year reign."
And:
"Former deputy chief medical officer Dr Nick Coatsworth couldn't have put it more plainly today, writing in an op-ed for The Sydney Morning Herald that "in 2022, the Covid-19 pandemic will end….. Covid-19, he added, "is now the most treatable respiratory virus known to man", and despite its transmissibility, Omicron will likely have a lower case-to-fatality ratio than the flu, "and not a particularly bad flu at that".
So, I think the signs are very positive for us escaping this pandemic and again enjoying the freedoms we once had prior to the pandemic.
In tourism we've had a couple of years of 'journalism' grasping onto the slightest positive event and presenting it as the end of the pandemic restrictions and return to open trade. Aussie bubble was supposed to be tens of thousands chafing at the bit to come to NZ for a holiday asap. Reality turned out to be virtually empty planes and what passengers there were, were visiting family. The breathless pronouncements of impending good times for business were closely followed by an intense campaign from the same media outlets trying to sell advertising.
They are selling hope as fact, and we're very willing marks.
I'm sceptical, and will wait and see what happens.
very good post graeme. the last one of these bullshit news(?) items was a couple of weeks ago when auckland was opened and two days later we had sobstories in msm about how dead queenstown was, and how scared aucklanders were to travel. its not news, its advertising dressed up with very small snippetts of clickbait in between.
Is there and immutable law of biology that says this virus will always mutate to a less severe form? Or that the less severe form will always become dominant?
We've had several 'chance' mutations in this variant that have made it more transmissible, and less severe. I'd presume the increased transmissibility would make it more dominant, but would also increase the probability of further mutation by enabling vastly more infections.
So what's the probability of an equally, or more transmissible, but more severe variant emerging?
There are examples of viruses that have become more deadly.
However, in the case of Covid, humans have the advantage of cumulative knowledge and the ability to adjust our responses so we can allow the spread of benign versions, and use strong countermeasures to limit the spread of the harmful ones.
In that way, we can facilitate the spread and dominance of the mild versions so that the world develops herd immunity to future mutations of Covid, and it eventually becomes background noise, similar to the common cold or flu.
However, in the case of Covid, humans have the advantage of cumulative knowledge and the ability to adjust our responses so we can allow the spread of benign versions, and use strong countermeasures to limit the spread of the harmful ones.
Theoretically. In reality, the large countries that didn't limit spread initially has meant more opportunity for variants to develop.
If/when such a variant does emerge, then (as with Delta and Omicron) NZ will likely have a window of a few months to prepare.
Hope for the best, plan for the worst, imho – the state of Oregon (4.2 million) has done relatively well compared to other US states, with 'only' 0.13% of its people dead with COVID (cf. 0.001% in NZ). Let's be careful out there.
It's my understanding that while a super transmissible and lethal bug is always possible – they are very rare for at least three evolutionary reasons:
Both features require high degrees of specialisation that involve different aspects of the viral structure. The odds getting both in the one variant are even more astronomically rare – assuming natural only evolution.
There seems to be a molecular trade-off between transmissibility and lethality. As a virus loads more resource into one, it has less available to put into the other. There is no hard and fast rule on this – it's an observed heuristic.
And finally simple evolution always favours the variant that is the least likely to kill its host. Again this doesn't preclude a lot of death before a steady state is reached – but in the long run the logic of this will always prevail.
I would agree. The likely course of Covid is towards a more benign bug.
The common cold was probably once a deadly virus at some point in time.
As the article I linked to above pointed out, Omicron has evolved to be more transmissible by mutiplying in the throat rather than the lungs. But this change has resulted in a reduction in severity due to not multiplying so quickly in the lungs.
The best thing we could see in NZ, is for all the Covid measures in place to be immediately dropped. It's summer, the best time to deal with Omicron.
There are growing number of folks becoming non compliant, and that trend is only going to continue. For many it's a conscience thing, and if you remove people freedoms, soon they will feel they have nothing to lose. Segregation has no place in our society. And neither does heavy handed state coercion.
My comment above was in answer to a question about the general principles of viral evolution.
Even though I tend to agree with much of your sentiments on compliance and segregation, the specific case of Omicron and NZ needs to be dealt with on it's own merits. And while the data clearly shows it's less lethal – I still think there is good reason for us to be a 'slow follower' on opening up.
As weka put's it, there will be no stuffing this genie back into the bottle.
I recall a virologist on the tv when this virus first popped up saying that these viruses often follow a 2 year pattern of very dangerous to begin with and then mutating in to a less severe form then going away, .
Those promising Guardian studies are on mice and hamsters ie in the very early stages of clinical trials.
It's ironic that the Covid vaccine research studies are so much further advanced ie multiple RCT trials in humans, followed by rollout to millions and millions, ongoing safety and efficacy monitoring yet some (wrongly) still say it's experimental.
We could do all of that. But I suspect that a red listing, especially in the very medically understaffed and under vaccinated provincial areas is in our future. Only realistic way to drop the the rate of spread to a muted roar rather tsunami.
Good points lprent. In the UK there have been other spinoffs from the Omicron outbreak and that is the sheer numbers being infected and needing to isolate. Then other industries, particularly mass transit falls over and those who are ell enough to work cannot get to work. So a different set of impacts. May need a different set of mitigations with differing timings as the disease progresses. One of the benefits of the traffic light system allows for flexibility in switching while enabling as many businesses to keep open as sensible.
As far as VitD is concerned my Dr is not keen on supplementation and urged me to get at least 20mins of sun on my forehead ie without hat or sunscreen and for me earlyish in the morning every day. The same advice is good for combatting jet lag, to get outside in your destination in that mid morning time helps the body to switch time zones.
Shanreagh, I am outside quite a lot everyday, and when tested for Vitamin D levels after last summer (spent in the garden), I was in the severely deficient range. Three women friends of menopausal age, who have all been tested – and had results indicating severe deficiency in Vitamin. Two of them keen cyclists, one of whom cycles 30 – 50 km daily.
Apparently, women often lose the ability to metabolise Vitamin D from sunlight as they get older. The current recommendation from doctors to ensure you get a minimum of 20 minutes a day works if your metabolism is still functioning to convert that exposure to Vitamin D. For many, this is no longer the case, and you won't know if you are one of those for whom this is true.
You can consider this anecdotal, and of no importance, but Vitamin D does have a protective role to play in many aspects of good health. Ensuring you have a good level in the blood is a fairly inexpensive way of stacking your odds.
This is the simplest explanation I've seen on the amount of skin to expose to sunlight to get adequate vitamin D metabolised in the blood stream. Shanreagh, having just your forehead exposed is nowhere near enough but it's better than nothing.
I think this was a balancing between my family's sun sensitivity and the amount needed for good health. From an early age as children we were not allowed to go out into the sun without protection between 10-2.00pm.
My Dr thought being out in the sun without a hat/sunscreen around morning teatime 10-11am would do me fine……face, hands, sometimes arms exposed. He would have had a fit if I had been out in a swimsuit doing this let alone a bikini like the model in Matiri's reference.
One place I worked a fair skinned Goth colleague was the only other person doing this all year long except for when it was pelting down. He had been told the same thing and had the same fair type of skin.
Food has VitD.
Fatty fish, like tuna, mackerel, and salmon
Foods fortified with vitamin D, like some dairy products, orange juice, soy milk, and cereals
Beef liver
Cheese
Egg yolks
VitD photosynthesis is only created by UVB – not UVA. It is completely blocked by
sun lower than 45deg
any air pollution
any sun screen
glass
clothing
The simple rule is 'your shadow must be sharp and shorter than you are tall' in order for the sunshine route to be useful.
The other element that is hard to achieve is full body exposure. It takes on average 30 min of full body exposure in ideal conditions to achieve between 10 – 20,000 IU of VitD. In our pre-industrial state we typically fat stored somewhere between 1 – 2,000,000 IU of VitD over summer that we drew down on over winter. Most of us are going to find it hard to emulate that in our modern lives – unless naturism is your thing.
Modernity has brought many good things, but we're also starting to learn some of the downsides that we overlooked on the way – and social clothing norms and indoor living inadvertently broke that evolved cycle. Hence for most moderns supplementation is necessary to achieve something near to the 60 – 90 ng/ml levels required for good health. All the information you need is out there, but suffice to say it's critical to understand not just the role of VitD but it's partner VitK2 and the role co-factors such as magnesium, zinc and boron play.
All this is relatively new information many GP's will not have had the time nor inclination to discover – but some have. We're lucky to have stumbled across one here in Brisbane, and if you seek out the Functional Medicine types they're typically all over this.
Since my work trip to the Canadian Arctic in 2017 I've been gradually becoming more informed on the VitD story – it's been a fascinating and for both of us an increasingly rewarding journey in all sorts of unexpected ways. I hope you have as much fun with this as we have
Yes Potassium is important and often overlooked. Bananas are high sources of potassium. (And the skins are good cut up and placed around rose bushes!).
All of the elements/vitamins/s exercise/sunshine work together and reinforce the need for exercise and good eating habits. Incidentally my Dr is also a sports medicine Dr and has a large practice of post menopausal women and he is also not keen on OTT eating regimes that strip the body of fat.
Having been tested a couple of years ago and then having a period of time on IV feeding in hospital I know that my Potassium levels are prone to dipping. As I am on on High cholesterol drugs for Familial hypercholesterolemia ('a genetic disorder caused by a defect on chromosome 19. The defect makes the body unable to remove low density lipoprotein (LDL, or bad) cholesterol from the blood. This results in a high level of LDL in the blood') I also have to supplement with VitB as the drugs strip out VitB.
It is fascinating …how our bodies have so many perfectly balanced and intricate systems and processes.
Thanks – I'll checkout the potassium aspect. Any good links?
I've tried to steer a middlish path through the COVID controversies, but if it brings a wider awareness of what real 'public health' might mean – it will turn out a silver lining to what's been a very dark cloud.
Do you know what the evidence base for this is? I've seen it said a fair bit, but it's unclear to me. Presumable there's a curve of decline as the sun lowers in the sky (each day and over the year) rather than a sharp cut off at 45deg.
One of the implications is that the Vit D people at lower latitudes make during the summer and autumn has to get them through the winter and early spring.
Like all things on the internet there are plenty of rabbit-holes to dive down on this, but 45deg is a rule of thumb not an hard cut-off. I probably should have qualified my statement above more carefully.
At the latitude of say Otago which is below this doesn't mean there will be zero UV-B – it's just the level is relatively low and the amount of time necessary for full exposure and a decent summer accumulation is not going to be achievable or comfortable for most modern people.
the problem is that around the equinoxes the sun is so low in the sky on the south that there may not be much Vit D production. I'm not convinced by the 45deg thing (I've been sunburned in early spring), but obviously there is an issue for those in the south.
Two recent pro-VitD references that are worth offering. The first is Prof Robert Scragg from the UoA School of Medicine giving an overview of research in NZ.
Robert’s vitamin D expertise sees him called on to peer-review research and he says it can be frustrating when poorly constructed studies are amplified through the media.
“For example, there have been observational studies published that show people with Covid-19 have low vitamin D levels,” says Robert.
“But they don’t go into the factors as to why they have low levels. Having dark skin contributes to lower vitamin D, for example.
“As well, being overweight or poor can contribute to low levels.
“There was a big international trial I was asked to review that had major methodological flaws in it. This is an example of where you can do a study, and call it a trial, but you may have introduced biases into it. Next thing you know, it’s being quoted as gospel.”
The second link is from Gruff Davies a UK data scientist with a physics background who offers a paper on the VitD/COVID relationship using Causal Inference methodology.
Causal Inference
The COVID-19 pandemic spread globally providing observational data with statistical power many orders of magnitude greater than a devised RCT or observational trial that could be conducted even at national level. Striking patterns emerge directly from this statistical power that are so large they are evident without the need for sophisticated regression analyses. Global location data for 239 locations offers a vast data set that includes homogeneous and heterogeneous populations and subpopulations where latitude, weather conditions, skin colour, age, pregnancy and morbidity states are – in effect – randomly assigned by nature.
A lot of very readable material in this paper and has an Appendix explaining why the so called 'gold standard' RCT's are usually nowhere near as useful as the lay public have been led to think they are.
Totally agree. Another factor that has been completely overlooked is that the normal ability of the skin to synthesise VitD decreases with age. (Just as the risks of COVID increase with age).
The main reason why most medics are cautious about VitD supplementation is that there has been conflicting and paradoxical studies on it's impact.
For a long time the results of just VitD and Calcium supplementation in preventing osteoporosis were disappointing. In essence the VitD certainly enabled the absorbtion of the extra calcium, but instead of improving bone density all it did was raise the risk of calcification in places like the heart, arteries and kidneys. It was called the 'calcium paradox' – too little and you got all the issues of falls and fractures, yet any attempt at improving this immediately raised the risk of heart and circulation conditions. There didn't seem to be any sweet spot.
The missing piece of the puzzle turns out to be VitK2 which is essential to get the calcium from the bloodstream and into the bones where you want it.
Again plenty of good info out there if you look – my comments here are not intended as medical advice.
If the sun is at less than 45 degrees, then you're not producing any Vit D- Apparently. Something to do with the angle of the sun and the blocking capacity of ozone. Also. In places with air pollution (mbe not so much of an issue for most locations in NZ), we can't produce VitD.
Sure. In most parts of the continental world that is the case. Too much dust even at the coast. Doesn't apply that much for a country that is never more the 100kms from the ocean and has a negligible atmospheric dust load.
It doesn't really apply that much to places like Auckland in summer. Dunedin I can understand – it seems to be designed to be a place to get really pale. I came home to Auckland from Dunedin and was startled at
Of course there is always fatty fish and most other marine products, egg yolks, mushrooms even before you get to fortified foods and supplements.
Personally I eat all three and even my sun avoiding geekness doesn't have vitD issues, (If I am going to have to have a blood test every quarter, may as well check everything).
Of course there is always fatty fish and most other marine products, egg yolks, mushrooms even before you get to fortified foods and supplements.
I only recently discovered that these 'food routes' are typically 'indirect sunshine'.
For example the hairy mammals like cats and dogs all secrete oil into their fur, where UVB in sunshine then converts it to one of the VitD forms. Then grooming causes the animal to ingest the VitD they need.
Similarly with most marine sources – they're getting it from the photoplankton they eat and if they're an oily species it's well stored.
Mushrooms the same – but only when they're wild and have been exposed to sunlight.
Unless you're eating a very traditional, pre-industrial diet that's almost exclusively from these wild sources – for most of us pale, geeky moderns it's more effective to supplement.
I've no particular quibble with most of this. The very high R value of Omicron ensures hospitalisation will rise very rapidly and this is an operational concern for all the reasons you describe.
And as I mentioned to weka earlier, I'm willing to accept that just because Omicron presents mostly as a less lethal acute disease, there are good reasons to remain cautious on it's long term chronic effects. Especially given it's rather opaque origin and peculiar genetics.
Not to mention that aussies in summer generate a lot of natural vitamin D along with their sunburn.
This was something I would have said myself up to quite recently until I discovered that VitD photosynthesis from sunshine only happens in some rather specific conditions. And while much of Australia is indeed ideal sunshine territory, the people have been trained for several decades now to not to expose themselves to it.
one of the things that we (the public) will learn from omicron, hopefully, is the complex nature of the crisis. It's not a simple matter of pulling out some stats. There are a lot of different and interacting factors, and the the difference between what looks good on paper (stats on initial omicron severity) and what happens on the ground (hospital impact) is stark.
I took your point the other day about confounding factors, just thought it was more a generality rather than looking into the detail.
It's not a simple matter of pulling out some stats. There are a lot of different and interacting factors, and the the difference between what looks good on paper (stats on initial omicron severity) and what happens on the ground (hospital impact) is stark.
A very interesting opinion piece on this very topic was published today in the Guardian by two prominent UK Statisticians.
Can you capture the complex reality of the pandemic with numbers? Well, we tried…
We had to agree our purpose, as a particular challenge is to fend off the voracious media appetite for blame, speculation and controversy, naturally fed by the broad spectrum of opinion among experts. One camp has supported viral suppression and even elimination, while others have expressed scepticism about the measures taken; it’s become a cliche that their extreme followers can be identified by the phrase “I’ve done my own research”.
One particularly relevant paragraph from the link above:
We tried this strategy back in June 2021 when Public Health England first published data showing that, among older people who had recently died with Covid-19, most had been vaccinated. We wrote an article pointing out that this did not mean the vaccine was ineffective – just that it was imperfect – and that the great majority of people had been vaccinated: in essence, a small proportion of a large number can be bigger than a larger proportion of a small number. Another useful analogy is with seatbelts: most people who die in car accidents are wearing seatbelts, but this does not mean that seatbelts are not effective – it’s just that nearly everyone wears one and they are not perfect.
Tired and overworked healthcare workers in NSW were left with no choice but to support reducing the isolation rules for asymptomatic staff deemed close contacts of COVID-19 cases.
That's alarming. It's a kind of desperation for public health to allow potential infection of staff in order to manage increasing infection in the general population.
Under an exemption to the Public Health Order signed by Health Minister Brad Hazzard on Friday night, these staff can now be ordered back to work.
I'm curious what the people who object to other restrictions make of that.
I made a mistake and the root directory overflowed. To be precise I did
zpool create archive list_of_drives
And forgot to
zpool set mountpoint=/mnt archive
Then proceeded to
rsync holddir /mnt/archive
Cries of dismay from those who delve into and are literate in linux as I hang my head in shame.
Wound up with no space on / and you and everyone else was locked out from logging in or writing comments because there was nowhere to write scratch files.
And I thought I was pretty good figuring out how to delete the photographs on my Olympus camera that were filling up my card…….took me about half a morning but not having to spend $99.00 to get anew card was a good driver. My camera works better with my Mac when taking photographs for TM and Freecycle.
You can usually get into most devices either naturally (eg Mac + iphone) or using a fuse file system or simply popping the card into the card reader on a laptop or desktop. On most things of that type linux or the linux that is OSX find and/or rsync – is your friend.
For instance clearing up old TS database backups (updating that script at present)
Find all files matching my backup drive directory with the name of TheStandardDB_.tar.xz that have a modified date of more than 2 days and delete them.
rsync is also pretty good at doing moves. I usually clean phone directories using rsync to push the data into my workstations dropbox folder with a -delete parameter.
Yes I looked for the card reader on this 2nd hand laptop, not the Mac, but thought that as the previous owner had said the CD drive yes I know!!!!), had been removed it wouldn't have a card reader…….doh.
Just now found the card reader on the other side of the laptop.
Used to have a printer that you could put a card in it. Haven't looked on this one. Finally found a set of instructions online and following them brought home to me how important the editing of tech instructions for non tech people is. My cousin used to do this specialised editing.
My prob with the online instructions was that they had left out a couple of steps that would have been easy for a techy but not for a novice to complete. I thought/think even though PCs are great I lost ways of personalising processes that I had when I worked on a mainframe. I had little sets of coding to do tasks. You seem to have some – do these work off Linux?
If those who had written the instructions I followed this morning had to wrap some coding around them to automate them they would have come to a complete stop!
My primary geek nz email is down for the same reason. Turns out virtual box likes wiping its vbox files when it doesn't have disk space. It will be back later today after I dig out what format it wants.
21 days for 'misgendering' a trans identified male. Lol. Well for what its worth, it finally has arrived the stage where men (human adult males) are starting to get a whiff of this new movement and they better learn to bend the knee and bow down deep to the god of trans lest they end up in prison and / or are having to pay fines.
Ignoring the trans part of that conversation, it sounds like the convicted was a complete fuckwit obsessed by gender issues, and who shouldn't have been allowed on any adult public forum. Too juvenile and childish…
If that was the criteria for being able to use social media – or any other 'adult public forum' then half those participating would be excluded.
In this case, however, that engagement resulted in a 21 day jail sentence. Whereas, other more direct threats on social media, have resulted in no consequence.
Although, you may consider – as I do – the level of this person's contribution to discussion to be less than nil, that is not a reason to incarcerate someone.
Could easily do that here as well under multiple acts, including the HDCA. All it would require is for the perp to not show contrition and to try to argue that the court has no right try it – which appears to be what this idiot fuckwit did.
You should really look at the actual legal provisions of NZ before you start to criticise those of other countries.
'Declan Armstrong, 19, was convicted of using abusive or insulting words to cause harassment. According to Judge Roger Lowe, the public order offence was uplifted to medium-level due to its transphobic nature.
He was put under night-time curfew and ordered to pay £590, including £200 compensation to Police Community Support Officer Connor Freel, 25, who was born female but identifies as male. The Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) called the incident a ‘hate crime’. Edward Marsh of the CPS said: “Comments deliberately targeting a person in this way have no place in modern society.”
Now two disability support groups – AXIA-ASD and Action for Asperger’s – have condemned the prosecution and called for the courts to think again when dealing with people with disorders such as Autism and Asperger’s. Elaine Nicholson, CEO of Action for Asperger’s said: “This young man is being punished for his condition; having a communication disorder is what Asperger’s is all about.”
There is also the high number of incidents of a number of people utilising this interpretation of the law to harass and harm people they disagree with.
This particular case has a Trans – stake because it is based on 'trans-rights'. So far it is not that common that we lock up people for being insulting tits, if we had done that previously we could not keep up building prisons and staffing them.
But then, i hear that the for profit prison industry is a good market to invest in to, what do you think?
So far it is not that common that we lock up people for being insulting tits,
As I explained in 3.1.1.1.1. The actual offence was almost certainly that of being a idiot fuckwit obsessed by gender issues who challenged the court by saying that they had no legal basis to try him. It did by an act of the legislature, and he now has an opportunity to try the judge's duty to enforce the laws of the land in a court of appeal. I suspect that he and his idiot lawyer will be stupid enough to do that.
It may eventually make it to their equivalent of our supreme court which will look at if the legislature worded the legislation so that the judge was correct in their interpretation or not.
In our case the judgement would be that freedom of expression in BORA is a limited right. It does not include the right to gratuitously insult others for their gender, race, looks, religion, or simply because a offensive fuckwit wants to get their ego off public.
We have a small prison population who have made the same legal mistake. Some are on remand, some on bail, some are still awaiting trial.
As a professional geek, I don’t go around overtly rubbing people up the wrong way simply because they weren’t endowed with the curiosity and drive that is greater than a hamster. If I can keep that strong urge to use my fingers to do that – then so should this idiot gender obsessed fuckwit.
Regardless of you like it or not, freedom of expression does not extend to being a gormless bigot in public to other individuals. And if you feel forced to be one, then it pays to be a a smart one who actually understands some basic legal principles and can avoid forcing a judge to sentence you for simple stupidity.
Incidentally I naturally carefully wrote that last comment so it was lawful and insulting. There is a fundamental legal and societal principle embedded in the comment as to why this would be legal under almost all reasonable legal systems, one that gender obsessed idiotic legal fuckwit did not follow.
I'd be interested if the people above who have a problem with the sentence can understand why? They don't seem to understand it as far as I can see.
I have no idea if or why the dude insulted the other. That is actually not mentioned anywhere. Neither is a picture of either one of them involved that would allow any one to form their own opinion of what was said. We also don't know what let to that altercation, only that it ended with that conversation that what reported to the police as 'hate crime' (or what ever the Norwegian laws to that extend are), and that it lead to a fine and a 21 day sentence.
Now what was said might have been insulting, or it might have been a statement to the fact, who knows we are not giving more information as that. Should that alone be grounds to lock someone up for 21 days? That should be discussed. What else can we not say or if we say it we should expect 21 days in the slammer for wrong speak?
I don't believe the law should be able to send someone to prison for what they say unless it incites violence.
If you take the example JK Rowling who regularly gets death and rape threats, nail bomb threats and doxing, I have to wonder why no action has been taken about the perpetrators of these threats.
I don’t believe the law should be able to send someone to prison for what they say unless it incites violence.
Ah a person who believes in waiting at the bottom of the cliff with an ambulance. Good approach for a ghoul – you get more bodies maimed or dead that way.
As far as I am aware so far, the only interesting part of about this case was that the the idiot said that the written law didn’t apply to them because of a higher law. The judge took them at their word, sentenced them, so if they chose to they could appeal to the people who actually balance those higher laws against other laws. They get the chance to argue it in court possibly before and maybe after serving their sentence.
BTW: Have you ever read any analysis of how lynching, pogroms, riots, and every other destructive practice of humans operates. It is almost from people thinking that they can get away with acting like an arsehole to others and having others cheer them on with their non-violent offensive behaviour against other people. They start to think that it is their ‘right’ to do so. That any laws put in place are just there to stifle them. And you find that they end up burning people in their houses or whatever violence happens to be fashionable.
Judges and indeed most lawyers I know tend to be very aware of this. After all any reading of any case law bangs the stupidity of such attitudes home over and over again along with the inevitability of cause and effect about problems between those who think that they have an absolute right to be obnoxious. I had to deal with my old partners law and being a fast reader I spent some time reviewing it. Prefer programming, but laws have inherent logic that is worth looking at when you have questions about why this or that happens.
Basically every bigot idiot, lynch mob, and pogrom starts because anti-social idiots think that they have a ‘right’ to be offensive to ‘others’. Many laws are put in place simply to make sure that idiots find that out before they manage kill or maim others. Doesn’t always work, but the legal balance between ‘rights’ like being a loudmouth bigot and not getting killed or maimed by one is largely there to catch problems at the top of the cliff – not the bottom.
I have to wonder why no action has been taken about the perpetrators of these threats.
That brings me to the other side. Responsibilities….
I do some support work with computers, where the first question is always the same on any kind of computer failures. Is it plugged in or something equivalent? The second is have you rebooted it? In a good fifth of the cases one of those is the problem.
Hell – I fixed a VoIP issue for someone tonight by powering off and on their router. The router had been running for at least 4 months.
There is an equivalent question that you will find people who have to deals with non-computer social issues always ask, including threats. That is “has XYZ laid a complaint?” Or requested action?
Because in my experience that is usually a small fraction. No force or organisation can take action unless a formal complaint is laid. You also can’t take them to task if they haven’t taken any useful action because none was requested.
Many people go and say that it’d be of no use anyway, or it is too much effort, or it is cheaper to beef up your own security/insurance or whatever. Maybe so. But you can’t know unless it is tried. Also shouldn’t moan and whine about it unless that has happened and failed.
I have also noticed that the people who complain the loudest that something should be done, are also usually those who haven’t lifted a finger in any useful way to help an investigation. Because the first thing that anyone like the police will do is point out that to have a trial it has to be fair and based on evidence – not hearsay. Being a loudmouth moaner doesn’t help. Getting a conviction or substantive action depends on making sure that any subsequent trial or hearing is not contaminated by loudmouths contaminating juries or judges. It is the reason why we have suppression orders.
I have no idea if JK Rowling (vaguely remember her as a fantasy author) has laid complaint about threats or not. But I’d prefer to see an explicit statement that a formal complaint has been laid, and that the authorities are still working on it. If police or whoever drop it, then I’d want to see a copy of the complaint and some idea about evidence before I start getting wound up about that.
Basically hearsay is cheap, usually spun for effect, and most often wrong. So far that is all that I have heard. To me it is meaningless irresponsibility. I might have an opinion based on what I dig out myself and even express my understanding of it. But I tend to treat everything dished up as just being propaganda.
Incidentally, as much as I hit on police for their lackadaisical Luddite behaviour at times, go and ask any mature police officer what they find the most irritating. They will tell you that it is the people who don’t lay charges or who won’t give evidence to enable charges to be laid.
Which is where the other side of a having a right comes into play – acting responsibly.
Incidentally the same principles of balance apply to politics. For that matter for anyone with social duties. Soldiers, nursing staff, police, ambulance staff, wardens, etc. And of course to me.
"Regardless of you like it or not, freedom of expression does not extend to being a gormless bigot in public to other individuals. And if you feel forced to be one, then it pays to be a a smart one who actually understands some basic legal principles and can avoid forcing a judge to sentence you for simple stupidity."
And it appears you missed the point that women on here have been trying to make for many months. There are legislative changes that have the potential to make statements regarding biological sex fall into hate speech by being categorised as transphobic.
Overseas examples are being used, because we have followed the same pattern of changes to legislation, by asking for changes to hate speech, self-id for gender recognition, and conversion therapy. The safeguards requested by submitters that have kept track on how those laws have worked in practical terms have been ignored.
There are legislative changes that have the potential to make statements regarding biological sex fall into hate speech by being categorised as transphobic.
They are already in legislation. Read BORA – legislation since 1990 and the HRA legislation from 1993 that was written with BORA in mind.
That is how they have been treated in the courts for a very long time. Trying to prevent discrimination of this particular facet would be more than 30 years too late.
The former requires that the principles are applied to new and updated legislation. The latter is quite explicit that sexual orientation legally has little to do with biological sex or genetics. It also shows a strong orientation that biological sex is related mostly to child bearing.
What you're looking at in current bills is the routine legislative tidy up that is a requirement of the BORA and less explicitly for the HRA for updated and amended legislation.
Moreover, if you look through our legislation you won't find much that is still in current usage that is explicit about biological sex apart from sections that are explicitly about pregnancy and birth. That is because legislators learnt a long time ago that to make highly explicit legislation based on social circumstances is to provide legal loopholes as society changes under a lagging legal framework.
If you want to see what I mean, just look back to the legislation of 1890s and try to imagine that to be in effect today. Much of it was obsolete withing a few decades after it was made.
As far as I can tell the anti argument is based mostly around customary usage – ie a common law style of legal basis. However in NZ customary usage and common law apply as guiding principle only where not explicitly overridden by legislation.
Essentially what is being proposed by you and others as opposition to updated legislation is not to protect existing law and current established legal interpretation.
It is trying to establish a new legal principle to disadvantage another part of society. It is a new legal principle that its proponents cannot apparently manage to explain (at least to me) the reasons for changing existing law.
Which is why I keep asking for an explanation on why it is important to change the principles of current legislative law.
I'm sure that lawyers amongst us could state that more clearly. However that would be legal advice, be risky, and would probably require an arm or leg to obtain. We all know lawyers are cannibals by customary practice 😈
"Essentially what is being proposed by you and others as opposition to updated legislation is not to protect existing law and current established legal interpretation."
You make this claim but are wrong. It is only recently that sex has been conflated to include gender identity
I suggest once again you make efforts to inform yourself. It's far too hot for me to bother, and I have a reasonable expectation any evidence provided will be casually dismissed.
As I have pointed out numerous times, I have been asking for an explanation.
I’m not interested in one that involves sports
I’m not interested in ones that say someone said something offensive about someone else. We have existing legislation that covers that
I am interested in a social or legal problem that requires legislative powers to control. You know – behaviour that could result in a prison sentence. Like falsely accusing someone of being a pedophile
I’m not interested in explanation that implicitly say I don’t like being around X. That is a common human fragility. I am interested in systematic behavioural issues that need societal correction
Basically everything else is just simple hearsay. But really the drivel I just excluded as being of little interest to me is all the explanation I can see at present.
I don't comment in line with your priorities or reckons, that's apparent. Your lack of insight or knowledge on this topic is also apparent.
Basically everything else is just simple hearsay. But really the drivel I just excluded as being of little interest to me is all the explanation I can see at present.
You are making some fairly wide assumptions sans evidence.
I’m not interested in explanation that implicitly say I don’t like being around X. That is a common human fragility. I am interested in systematic behavioural issues that need societal correction
Not listening or thinking before masterfully summing up seems to be a common response.
potential Cis girls need to know their place, and one can not start teaching them their place early enough. Penis is as Penis does does not matter if it hangs of a transwomen or a male.
"“For a minute I thought, ‘Well, there’s no point in putting compost on. I nearly turned around and drove home. But then I thought, for the boys, I have to look forward. So I went in.
“And last time I went in, we planted seeds. I told them that when you are planting seeds, you’ve got something to look forward to. I wanted them to know there is always hope.”"
Seeds of change: Prison garden tutor named Gardener of the Year
Good on Bronwyn. And Ryman Health Care, for sponsoring the award. Nice to see a volunteer horticulturalist having such a positive effect on young prisoners & getting some of them interested in gardening & horticulture as a career.
That is such a good story. "I told them that when you are planting seeds, you’ve got something to look forward to. I wanted them to know there is always hope.”
I've just been planting seeds this morning before the heat. Read this story with the coffee break. It resonated with me because I planted some old seed amongst all of it, so the idea of hope was certainly there. Sowing seed is to do with life stability, hope, connection to a place. I really respect those working in prisons with such motivation- staff and volunteers.
The excess death measurements over long term norms have been the most useful at looking at the actual mortality levels across nations and regions.
It certainly has been useful for identifying countries whose governments routinely lie to themselves. Really hard to trust Russian government proclaimations at any time during my lifetime – but it is really starting to look like the primary state of dickwaver farces at present.
This is a big issue, and not just because our covid fringe is becoming dangerously extreme.
The education act says that universities, amongst other things, have to "accept a role as critic and conscience of society". That is commonly understood by most academic staff I know to involve publicly speaking out about their areas of expertise.
For a university to essentially state that the risks of speaking out should be minimised by not speaking out – that seems to be a fundamental shift in the resposibilities of academics and universities, and in my opinion most definitely deserves some manner of judicial examination.
Agree that seems a very inappropriate response from a university. Suggesting they comment less in public.
I wonder exactly what they wanted the university to do to protect them from threats, though? We don’t have a lot of info in the article on that.
E.g. I wonder if Hendy wanted Campus Security at his office door, seeing some bloke came to his office & threatened him?
And I wonder where the Police come into this – they’d seem the most appropriate organiation to be following up threats online or in person, perhaps by viewing campus CCTV footage.
Universities have loads of ways of protecting staff and equipment and students.
Most would have centrally-operated door locks on facilities, just to avoid big pouches of keys. These could easily be set to swipe-only access until the heat dies down. Prompt trespass orders. Removing office locations from websites. Then more individually-tailored solutions like panic buttons or relocating carparks, and arranging regular security escorts between offices and vehicles. Many of these are already routinely done for people involved with sensitive research. Many are also trivial amounts of $$$ compared with the free advertising 'community interest' academics in the news produce for an institution – a card lock is like $1200 to bung on a door, last time my work checked. Also, uni IT could be proactive in shutting down threatening emails and social media – just as they would if someone on facebook spoke crap about Auckland Uni.
But the specifics aren't the problem, the problem is the suggestion of shutting academics up rather than working with them to figure out what to do.
Sounds like they laid the initial queries and complaints April 2020. From what I understood on twitter (some really crass stupidity on that forum today), the decision made in August was released yesterday or today. The interesting fact is that they appear to have acted quite responsibly in this – there hasn’t been a peep in any media that I know of about this.
Makes me more inclined to look at it.
I’d expect that both have made complaints with the police and possibly Netsafe under the HDCA (the police will send them there would be my bet). Probably with the social media as well (there were some whispers about people being blocked in 2020).
and in my opinion most definitely deserves some manner of judicial examination.
Yes. If the universities don’t wish to lose what little integrity they have left, then they either need to get the legislation amended and become mere technical colleges and I have some ideas about how they could do that better). Or they need to be able to make sure that their academic staff have the ability to spread knowledge, specialist understanding and ideas outside of the cloisters – because otherwise they’re a useless burden that should be stripped down to just doing a teaching role.
Mac Liman estimates she has fixed 14,000 bicycles over the last 18 years. But increasingly, the bikes coming through her Colorado shop are unfixable — and the manufacturers made them that way on purpose.
The influx of these essentially disposable bicycles has Mac raising the alarm about this trend in planned obsolescence. As we’ve covered in earlier editions of Junked By Design, our society is rife with unfixable products, which creates a mounting ecological problem.
[…]
Signs of an unfixable bike
Because Bikes Together works with donated, used bicycles, Mac has to train staff and volunteers how to process incoming bikes. Increasingly, that means teaching people to identify the bikes it’s not worth bothering to fix.
“The job used to be explaining to people how to fix things. Now, it’s explaining why they cannot,” Mac said. “The job used to be fixing; now, it’s stripping them down and scrapping them.”
Bikes Together has a checklist for spotting bikes made too poorly to fix for donation or resale. If you spot three or more of the following characteristics, the bike should be recycled:
sloppy welding on the frame (holes, pits, bubbles, etc.)
a flimsy, narrow rear dropout (made from stamped steel)
inappropriate plastic components (such as the derailleur or brake lever)
My partner and I bought 2 bikes in Walmart in 2013 in Salt Lake City and cycled 2,000 km with them across the U.S. When we arrived in San Francisco, a few months later, the bikes were still quite rideable, but when we contacted charities about taking them for free, they told us they weren't interested as they would be too costly to fix up (they only cost about US$80 each in Walmart). Gave them away to a homeless co-op eventually after thinking we might just leave them leant up against a wall. Yes, they were crap Chinese made bikes manufactured for short term use. The spare parts could almost to amount the same cost as the whole bikes!
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Education Minister Erica Standford yesterday unveiled a fundamental reform of the way our school pupils are taught. She would not exactly say so, but she is all but dismantling the so-called “inquiry” “feel good” method of teaching, which has ruled in our classrooms since a major review of the New ...
Exactly where are we seriously going with this government and its policies? That is, apart from following what may as well be a Truss-Lite approach on the purported economic “plan“, and Victorian-era regression when it comes to social policy.Oh it’ll work this time of course, we’re basically assured, “the ...
Hey Uncle Dave, When the Poms joined the EEC, I wasn't one of those defeatists who said, Well, that’s it for the dairy job. And I was right, eh? The Chinese can’t get enough of our milk powder and eventually, the Poms came to their senses and backed up the ute ...
Polling shows that Wellington Mayor Tory Whanau has the lowest approval rating of any mayor in the country. Siting at -12 per cent, the proportion of constituents who disapprove of her performance outweighs those who give her the thumbs up. This negative rating is higher than for any other mayor ...
Buzz from the Beehive Pharmac has been given a financial transfusion and a new chair to oversee its spending in the pharmaceutical business. Associate Health Minister David Seymour described the funding for Pharmac as “its largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff”. ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Many criticisms are being made of the Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill, including by this writer. But as with everything in politics, every story has two sides, and both deserve attention. It’s important to understand what the Government is trying to achieve and its ...
TL;DR: Here’s my top 10 ‘pick ‘n’ mix of links to news, analysis and opinion articles as of 10:10am on Monday, April 29:Scoop: The children's ward at Rotorua Hospital will be missing a third of its beds as winter hits because Te Whatu Ora halted an upgrade partway through to ...
span class=”dropcap”>As hideous as David Seymour can be, it is worth keeping in mind occasionally that there are even worse political figures (and regimes) out there. Iran for instance, is about to execute the country’s leading hip hop musician Toomaj Salehi, for writing and performing raps that “corrupt” the nation’s ...
Yesterday marked 10 years since the first electric train carried passengers in Auckland so it’s a good time to look back at it and the impact it has had. A brief history The first proposals for rail electrification in Auckland came in the 1920’s alongside the plans for earlier ...
Right now, in Aotearoa-NZ, our ‘animal spirits’ are darkening towards a winter of discontent, thanks at least partly to a chorus of negative comments and actions from the Government Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on ...
The Government is again adding to New Zealand’s growing unemployment, this time cutting jobs at the agencies responsible for urban development and growing much needed housing stock. ...
With Minister Karen Chhour indicating in the House today that she either doesn’t know or care about the frontline cuts she’s making to Oranga Tamariki, we risk seeing more and more of our children falling through the cracks. ...
The Labour Party is saddened to learn of the death of Sir Robert Martin, a globally renowned disability advocate who led the way for disability rights both in New Zealand and internationally. ...
Labour is calling for the Government to urgently rethink its coalition commitment to restart live animal exports, Labour animal welfare spokesperson Rachel Boyack said. ...
Today’s Financial Stability Report has once again highlighted that poverty and deep inequality are political choices - and this Government is choosing to make them worse. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to do more for our households in most need as unemployment rises and the cost of living crisis endures. ...
Unemployment is on the rise and it’s only going to get worse under this Government, Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said. Stats NZ figures show the unemployment rate grew to 4.3 percent in the March quarter from 4 percent in the December quarter. “This is the second rise in unemployment ...
The New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...
The National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...
This afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...
Te Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...
Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...
Tonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
The Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...
Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...
The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...
Cuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
More essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...
Te Pāti Māori is disgusted at the confirmation that hundreds are set to lose their jobs at Oranga Tamariki, and the disestablishment of the Treaty Response Unit. “This act of absolute carelessness and out of touch decision making is committing tamariki to state abuse.” Said Te Pāti Māori Oranga Tamariki ...
The Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...
Cancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...
A laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...
Thank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...
The Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...
The coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...
Structured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...
The rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...
The Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...
New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...
Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...
From today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...
People with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...
Kiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...
There are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...
The return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...
The coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...
The Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...
The Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay heads overseas today for high-level trade talks in the Gulf region, and a key OECD meeting in Paris. Mr McClay will travel to Riyadh to meet with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). “New Zealand’s goods and services exports to the Gulf region ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford has outlined six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system that sets Kiwi kids up for future success. “I’m putting ambition, achievement and outcomes at the heart of our education system. I want every child to be inspired and engaged in their learning so they ...
The new NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) App is a secure ‘one stop shop’ to provide the services drivers need, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Digitising Government Minister Judith Collins say. “The NZTA App will enable an easier way for Kiwis to pay for Vehicle Registration and Road User Charges (RUC). ...
Whānau with tamariki growing up in emergency housing motels will be prioritised for social housing starting this week, says Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka. “Giving these whānau a better opportunity to build healthy stable lives for themselves and future generations is an essential part of the Government’s goal of reducing ...
Racing Minister Winston Peters has paid tribute to an icon of the industry with the recent passing of Dave O’Sullivan (OBE). “Our sympathies are with the O’Sullivan family with the sad news of Dave O’Sullivan’s recent passing,” Mr Peters says. “His contribution to racing, initially as a jockey and then ...
Assalaamu alaikum, greetings to you all. Eid Mubarak, everyone! I want to extend my warmest wishes to you and everyone celebrating this joyous occasion. It is a pleasure to be here. I have enjoyed Eid celebrations at Parliament before, but this is my first time joining you as the Minister ...
Associate Health Minister David Seymour has announced Pharmac’s largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff. “Access to medicines is a crucial part of many Kiwis’ lives. We’ve committed to a budget allocation of $1.774 billion over four years so Kiwis are ...
Hon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...
Hundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says. “Every day, ...
Regional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges. “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...
Ambassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service. It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...
Distinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...
Mai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia. Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...
Paul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...
Recreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...
The coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...
Overseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...
Genterwocky After a hard days marching, Sir Doocey calls in at the Village Tavern For a pint of ale and a pork pie. The grim villagers stare at him. “Do not be travelling on the forest road,” warns a crusty old beak. “And why is that, antique peasant?” Grins Sir ...
Political conferences after a party returns to power are usually a chance for some healthy, even unhealthy backslapping. Yet National Party president Sylvia Wood’s address to its mainland representatives on Saturday hardly contained the unalloyed delight that one might have expected following National’s escape from the wilderness of opposition. Yes, ...
Comment: Almost half the world is voting in national elections this year and artificial intelligence is the elephant in the room. There are genuine fears AI-generated or AI-edited deepfakes will potentially manipulate election outcomes not just in the US and UK, but critically in countries such as India. For that ...
Ahead of the reality franchise’s return to New Zealand, allow us to introduce the eight brides and grooms. Chuck on a veil and tie back your man bun, because it’s time to say “I do” to a new season of Married at First Sight NZ. The reality TV “social experiment” ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Norton, Professor in the Practice of Higher Education Policy, Australian National University Every year on June 1, student debt in Australia is indexed to inflation. In 2023, high inflation pushed the indexation rate to 7.1%, the highest since 1990. This ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Changes in the May 14 budget will cut the student debt of more than three million people, wiping more than $3 billion from what people owe. The government will cap the HELP indexation rate ...
Asia Pacific Report The prosecutor’s office at the International Criminal Court (ICC) has appealed for an end to what it calls intimidation of its staff, saying such threats could constitute an offence against the “administration of justice” by the world’s permanent war crimes court. The Hague-based office of ICC Prosecutor ...
By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk A women’s union in New Caledonia has staged a sit-in protest this week to support senior Kanak indigenous journalist Thérèse Waia, who works for public broadcaster Nouvelle-Calédonie la Première, after a smear attack by critics. The peaceful demonstration was held on ...
New Zealand Food Safety is monitoring overseas recalls of Indian packaged spice products manufactured by MDH and Everest due to concerns over a cancer-causing pesticide. ...
By Stephen Wright and Stefan Armbruster of BenarNews Fiji’s ranking in a global press freedom index has jumped into the top tier of countries with free or mostly free media after its government last year repealed a draconian law that threatened journalists with prison for doing their jobs. Fiji’s improvement ...
We might be in Invercargill but all anyone can talk about is Gore. Specifically, Salford Street. That’s where three-year-old Lachlan Jones lived, south of the centre of town, between the A&P Showgrounds and the Mataura River. Roughly 1.2 km away from the single level home he lived in with his ...
MONDAY I lined up the latest round of civil servants from city hall against the wall, and signalled for the firing squad to drop their rifles. I stepped up onto a wooden crate to look at the office workers in the eye. But that didn’t feel right, so I found ...
Keen hiker and second-year MSc student Liam Hewson wears two hats when he’s in the great outdoors. “The scientist in me appreciates nature and goes, ‘Oh, there’s that thing and there’s another thing,’ but then the tramper and the outdoorsy person in me thinks, ‘Cool bush.’” Born and bred in ...
After a long and illustrious career as a goal kicker, Dan Carter’s favourite way to unwind is… kicking goals. Why can’t he get enough of it? And what it’s like to watch him do it for an hour straight? A semicircle of people wielding cameras and phones has formed in ...
Dame Susan Devoy takes us through her life in television, including late night ER debriefs, her proudest CTI moment and the show she watches in secret. Quite aside from her four world champion squash titles, Dame Susan Devoy will likely go down in history as one of the best Celebrity ...
Hera Lindsay Bird reveals the best places in Ōtepoti to score more for your apocalypse-prep book hoard.Sometimes I get the feeling I’ve been killed in a car crash, and this second half of my life is just the brain unspooling itself, like one of those episodes of a hospital ...
ThreeNow’s new murder mystery series takes us on a dark, damp journey into the Australian wilderness.This is an excerpt from our weekly pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here. High Country is ThreeNow’s new Australian eight-part crime drama, set in a remote part of the Victorian highlands. It tells ...
Introducing a new way to read The Spinoff every weekend. After nearly 10 years of being an online magazine, we’re finally embracing the weekend liftout. Despite our best efforts to convince you otherwise, writers and editors at The Spinoff don’t work weekend. It is through the sheer power of technology ...
Tip one: let yourself be nurtured by this big old man. Tip two: don’t ask him to adopt you. So, you’ve arrived at your first session with a new therapist. He tells you to make yourself comfortable and you opt for the tweed armchair, hoping it makes you look like ...
I didn’t know books could open you back up; that there were books that stayed with you, where reading was like a chemical event. I knew nothing.The Sunday Essay is made possible thanks to the support of Creative New Zealand.Not too long ago, I was listening to the American ...
Former Olympic swimmer James Magnussen has already started training for the Enhanced games, though says he won’t start taking performance enhancing substances until about nine months out from the competition. The Australian world champion was the first athlete to be announced by Enhanced, but he says the organisation has had ...
Everyone thinks he’s dead. Every day they expect his body to be washed up along the coast. Most likely up Karitane way, the way the tide’s running. But nobody’ll be too surprised if his body’s never found. Even in death he wouldn’t have wished for such attention. He would have ...
Council members voted 21 to 4 in favour of Ahluwalia returning to the Laucala campus following a much-awaited meeting in Vanuatu this week. It comes as USP and its two unions — the Association of the University of the South Pacific Staff (AUSPS) and the Administration and Support Staff Union ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicola Henry, Professor & Australian Research Council Future Fellow, Social and Global Studies Centre, RMIT University Shutterstock Following an emergency meeting of the National Cabinet this week, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced a raft of measures to tackle the problem ...
Analysis - A poll showing the opposition is more popular than the government raises questions, politicians go through their 'trial by pay rise' and a Green MP loses her cool in the debating chamber. ...
The entire stretch of Tokomaru Bay on the East Coast will be subject to a joint customary marine title for two hapū, and extending up to four miles out to sea. A High Court judge has found the two groups, who during the case settled a dispute over boundaries for ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Hall, Lecturer, Media & Cultural Studies, Edith Cowan University A longstanding feud between TikTok and Universal Music Group seems to have finally reached an end, with both parties signing a deal that will see Universal-backed music returned to the social media ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Siobhan O’Dean, Postdoctoral Research Associate, The Matilda Centre for Research in Mental Health and Substance Use, University of Sydney After several highly publicised alleged murders of women in Australia, the Albanese government this week pledged more than A$925 million over five years ...
Political parties have now fully disclosed the donations they received last year - with National getting more than double the cash of any other party. ...
A Pacific regionalism expert has called out New Zealand's Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters for withholding information from the public on AUKUS military pact. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard de Grijs, Professor of Astrophysics, Macquarie University Bruno Scramgnon/Pexels All systems are “go” for tonight’s launch of China’s next step in a carefully planned lunar exploration program. Placed on top of a powerful Long March 5 rocket, the Chang’e 6 ...
National returned a massive donation the day after a Newsroom story linked the donors to a property being investigated for operating unlawfully as a migrant workers’ hostel. The party’s 2023 donation filings, released on Friday, show it returned a $200,000 donation from Buen Holdings on August 23. That was the ...
Pacific Media Watch New Zealand has slumped to an unprecedented 19th place in the annual Reporters Without Borders World Press Freedom Index survey released today on World Press Freedom Day — May 3. This was a drop of six places from 13th last year when it slipped out of its ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joshua Black, Political Historian and Administrator Officer, Australian Historical Association, Australian National University Australia has had its fair share of public record-keeping controversies in recent years. Some have been mere farce, as in the case of two formerly government-owned filing cabinets (containing ...
Heavenly Culture, World Peace, Restoration of Light (HWPL), a United Nations-affiliated organization dedicated to fostering peace through civilian-led initiatives, has issued a statement in response to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. ...
A poem by Tessa Keenan, from AUP New Poets 10. Mātou These days we are a photograph; one of a farm strewn with cows that used to be bright harakeke or swamp. The kids point at it and say the sun sits behind a smudge (left by someone at Christmas); ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Small Things Like These by Claire Keegan (Faber & Faber, $25)The masterful Irish writer ...
Marriage and civil union statistics record the number of marriages and civil unions registered in New Zealand each year, and divorce statistics record the number of divorces granted in New Zealand each year. Key facts Marriages and civil unions In ...
Marriage and civil union statistics record the number of marriages and civil unions registered in New Zealand each year, and divorce statistics record the number of divorces granted in New Zealand each year. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lennon Y.C. Chang, Associate Professor of Cyber Risk and Policy, Deakin University Taiwan stands out as a beacon of democracy, innovation and resilience in an increasingly autocratic region. But this is under growing threat. In recent years, China has used a variety ...
In this excerpt from her new memoir, Dame Susan Devoy remembers her turn as star contestant on the 2022 season of Celebrity Treasure Island. The most anxious time of every day was pre-elimination, when you knew this could be your final day on the show. I felt such contradictory emotions, ...
A week that began in triumph ended in an all-too-familiar disaster for the Green Party. Duncan Greive asks if there’s something in the mission that breaks its best and brightest. A long, strange week for the Green party began with a fantastic poll result. On one level this is hardly ...
By Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific journalist Vanuatu’s former prime minister and opposition MP Ishmael Kalsakau has stepped down — just two days after he confirmed he was the rightful opposition leader. Kalsakau, MP for Port Vila, confirmed to ABC’s Pacific Beat, and the Vanuatu Daily Post on Thursday that he ...
What’s to blame for the coalition’s choppy start? Six months in, and the mojo meter is in the doldrums. A new poll would put National out of power and sees its leader, Chris Luxon, sliding in popularity. How much is it about policy, how much coalition management and a perception ...
The striking report goes far beyond the proposed repeal of the Oranga Tamariki Act’s Treaty of Waitangi provision, and its impact should be felt far beyond the unique circumstances of the claim it addresses. Earlier this week, the Waitangi Tribunal released an interim report on the government’s proposed repeal of ...
The world has been experiencing a productivity slowdown, from which New Zealand has not been exempt. COVID-19 temporarily boosted labour productivity, but more recently, productivity has retreated. The overall trend since 2007 has been one of slow productivity ...
What’s more wasteful than spending $315k on syrup and machine maintenance? Trying to drum up a controversy about it.Cast your mind back to the pre-pandemic idylls of 2019. A “rat” was a disgusting rodent and not a self-administered plague test; the sixth Labour government was in power; and the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Fitz-Gibbon, Professor of Social Sciences, Faculty of Arts, Monash University, Monash University Ken stocker/Shutterstock In the wake of numerous killings of women allegedly by men’s violence in 2024, thousands of Australians have joined rallies across the country to demand action ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Henry Cutler, Professor and Director, Macquarie University Centre for the Health Economy, Macquarie University Oleg Ivanov IL/Shutterstock Waiting times for public hospital elective surgery have been in the news ahead of this year’s federal budget. That’s the type of non-emergency surgery ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Konstantine Panegyres, McKenzie Postdoctoral Fellow, Historical and Philosophical Studies, The University of Melbourne Amna Artist/Shutterstock One of the earliest descriptions of someone with cancer comes from the fourth century BC. Satyrus, tyrant of the city of Heracleia on the Black Sea, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Rose, Professor of Sustainable Future Transport, University of Sydney LanaElcova/Shutterstock Electric vehicles are often seen as the panacea to cutting emissions – and air pollution – from transport. Is this view correct? Yes – but only once uptake accelerates. Despite the ...
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Carrying my reply to RL over as a starter and because I found it interesting to look at real numbers about an outbreak. Better and more disturbing than fatuous hyperbole about minor restrictions on ‘freedom’ related to a dumbarse virus that just treats such human conceits as a breeding opportunity.
Seeing what it does in Australia over the next 6-8 weeks would be sufficient to determine if poses a risk to our health systems to the point that it displaces normal loading to the point that people with other critical health issues die of lack of medical attention.
So far that isn't looking good.
The main operational issue is that medical staff with covid-19 (or any other infectious disease) can't attend vulnerable patients. That stresses the remaining staff
NSW is a similar enough state with a more extensive health system. It is also open enough to view the full effects with limited public health measures to see what is likely to happen here.
Looking at the timeline fro NSW
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/458461/fresh-warning-about-omicron-variant-after-cases-skyrocket-in-nsw
It looks like omnicron really broke out of the initial community transfer about 2 weeks ago.
What is noticeable at present is that the lines for PCR testing have gone ridiculous. Also the uncontrolled price of RAT kits with their unreported testing has now gone to directly to price gouging. Which suggests a large epidemic sweeping the state
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-02/covid-omicron-cognitive-leap-into-2022/100734564
And that the number of reported cases from PCR testing have jumped from 3763 on Dec 22 to 18278 cases yesterday despite the various PCR testing blockages. It looks like it is still doubling the known community infection rate about every 4 days.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-02/nsw-records-18278-covid19-cases-two-deaths/100734294
The key measures however are the hospitalisation rate and the staff overload. That isn't looking good at what is still the early surge phase of a variant epidemic.
There isn't enough info to be sure in NSW, but it looks like about a 2 week period from to get from infection to hospitalisation based on the rates of increase. The number of hospitalisations for covid-19 in NSW has risen from 302 on Dec 22 to three times the number. They only had 166 on Dec 15 a week earlier. Can't be sure of the ICU
And here is the important thing.
If the rate of hospitalisations keeps rising by 2+ times every week in a nearly fully vaccinated state, you can see why they're worried.
It isn't an issue with how less damaging the omnicron outbreak is. That appears to be about 15-30% of the infection vs hospitalisation rate depending where you look world wide.
It is an issue with the rapid rate of infections rapidly driving up the health system into the ground with larger numbers at a lower rate of infection.
I don't think that vitamin D is going to do much in the short term even if it was efficacious. Not to mention that aussies in summer generate a lot of natural vitamin D along with their sunburn.
The evidence is mounting that Omicron causes less severe disease because it tends to multiply in the throat rather than the lungs. This also explains why it is more contagious. The other good news is that research suggests recovery from Omicron is much quicker.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/02/new-studies-reinforce-belief-that-omicron-is-less-likely-to-damage-lungs
I agree with you that a major concern is that the rapid spread of the disease means the availability of essential workers such as medical staff is a major concern, and could have a major impact on our health services.
On the positive side, Omicron does appear to peak very quickly with case numbers already dropping in London.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/01/02/no-need-new-covid-restrictions-say-senior-tories-daily-cases/
From our perspective, we have to accept that Omicron is going to arrive here, sooner or later.
I think we need to take this opportunity to plan how to mitigate the negative impact on our core services for the short time the virus is a problem. Perhaps steps such as ensuring all essential workers have booster jabs, and perhaps even putting medical staff on a preventative course of antivirals for the short time that Covid is a major issue when it arrives.
Omicron also appears to confer considerable protection against Delta so hopefully by some miracle humankind will be helped out its dreadful flailing incompetence by a chance mutation.
I suspect that we have a lot more waves of covid-19 in our near (ie ~5 year) future.
There is going to have to be some serious tradeoffs for the people dependent on overseas tourism, students, and cheap labour. As well as those expecting to fly anywhere anytime.
Good thing really. We have been getting at least one significiant zoonotic disease emerging in human populations about every 5 years for the two to three decades. Well more than double the emergence rate in the 20th century.
Sheer luck that the others didn't grow to pandemic levels.
I would expect that trend to keep increasing in velocity until late this century. We are a useful vector for species hopper viruses.
I think you are being overly pessimistic.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-why-2022-and-omicron-variant-will-mark-the-end-of-the-covid-19-pandemic/JZXFOI5E22XSUTMF6PAOBTYV6U/
From the article:
"Despite the less than optimal start to 2022, however, health experts both at home and abroad have suggested the new variant – and the next 12 months – could finally signal the end of the coronavirus pandemic's two-year reign."
And:
"Former deputy chief medical officer Dr Nick Coatsworth couldn't have put it more plainly today, writing in an op-ed for The Sydney Morning Herald that "in 2022, the Covid-19 pandemic will end….. Covid-19, he added, "is now the most treatable respiratory virus known to man", and despite its transmissibility, Omicron will likely have a lower case-to-fatality ratio than the flu, "and not a particularly bad flu at that".
So, I think the signs are very positive for us escaping this pandemic and again enjoying the freedoms we once had prior to the pandemic.
In tourism we've had a couple of years of 'journalism' grasping onto the slightest positive event and presenting it as the end of the pandemic restrictions and return to open trade. Aussie bubble was supposed to be tens of thousands chafing at the bit to come to NZ for a holiday asap. Reality turned out to be virtually empty planes and what passengers there were, were visiting family. The breathless pronouncements of impending good times for business were closely followed by an intense campaign from the same media outlets trying to sell advertising.
They are selling hope as fact, and we're very willing marks.
I'm sceptical, and will wait and see what happens.
very good post graeme. the last one of these bullshit news(?) items was a couple of weeks ago when auckland was opened and two days later we had sobstories in msm about how dead queenstown was, and how scared aucklanders were to travel. its not news, its advertising dressed up with very small snippetts of clickbait in between.
Is there and immutable law of biology that says this virus will always mutate to a less severe form? Or that the less severe form will always become dominant?
We've had several 'chance' mutations in this variant that have made it more transmissible, and less severe. I'd presume the increased transmissibility would make it more dominant, but would also increase the probability of further mutation by enabling vastly more infections.
So what's the probability of an equally, or more transmissible, but more severe variant emerging?
The answer is often but not always:
https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/covid-19/do-bad-viruses-always-become-good-guys-end
There are examples of viruses that have become more deadly.
However, in the case of Covid, humans have the advantage of cumulative knowledge and the ability to adjust our responses so we can allow the spread of benign versions, and use strong countermeasures to limit the spread of the harmful ones.
In that way, we can facilitate the spread and dominance of the mild versions so that the world develops herd immunity to future mutations of Covid, and it eventually becomes background noise, similar to the common cold or flu.
Theoretically. In reality, the large countries that didn't limit spread initially has meant more opportunity for variants to develop.
With more than 30 million active cases globally it is a possibility, but I doubt anyone credible would be prepared to put a (probability) number on it.
If/when such a variant does emerge, then (as with Delta and Omicron) NZ will likely have a window of a few months to prepare.
Hope for the best, plan for the worst, imho – the state of Oregon (4.2 million) has done relatively well compared to other US states, with 'only' 0.13% of its people dead with COVID (cf. 0.001% in NZ). Let's be careful out there.
It's my understanding that while a super transmissible and lethal bug is always possible – they are very rare for at least three evolutionary reasons:
Both features require high degrees of specialisation that involve different aspects of the viral structure. The odds getting both in the one variant are even more astronomically rare – assuming natural only evolution.
There seems to be a molecular trade-off between transmissibility and lethality. As a virus loads more resource into one, it has less available to put into the other. There is no hard and fast rule on this – it's an observed heuristic.
And finally simple evolution always favours the variant that is the least likely to kill its host. Again this doesn't preclude a lot of death before a steady state is reached – but in the long run the logic of this will always prevail.
I would agree. The likely course of Covid is towards a more benign bug.
The common cold was probably once a deadly virus at some point in time.
As the article I linked to above pointed out, Omicron has evolved to be more transmissible by mutiplying in the throat rather than the lungs. But this change has resulted in a reduction in severity due to not multiplying so quickly in the lungs.
The best thing we could see in NZ, is for all the Covid measures in place to be immediately dropped. It's summer, the best time to deal with Omicron.
There are growing number of folks becoming non compliant, and that trend is only going to continue. For many it's a conscience thing, and if you remove people freedoms, soon they will feel they have nothing to lose. Segregation has no place in our society. And neither does heavy handed state coercion.
My comment above was in answer to a question about the general principles of viral evolution.
Even though I tend to agree with much of your sentiments on compliance and segregation, the specific case of Omicron and NZ needs to be dealt with on it's own merits. And while the data clearly shows it's less lethal – I still think there is good reason for us to be a 'slow follower' on opening up.
As weka put's it, there will be no stuffing this genie back into the bottle.
I recall a virologist on the tv when this virus first popped up saying that these viruses often follow a 2 year pattern of very dangerous to begin with and then mutating in to a less severe form then going away, .
Looking like he was right, fingers crossed,
(Far to long ago to find a link)
Those promising Guardian studies are on mice and hamsters ie in the very early stages of clinical trials.
It's ironic that the Covid vaccine research studies are so much further advanced ie multiple RCT trials in humans, followed by rollout to millions and millions, ongoing safety and efficacy monitoring yet some (wrongly) still say it's experimental.
We could do all of that. But I suspect that a red listing, especially in the very medically understaffed and under vaccinated provincial areas is in our future. Only realistic way to drop the the rate of spread to a muted roar rather tsunami.
Maybe a good idea to reinstall all the medical personnel fired under mandates…. As the vax clearly does not stop the new variant.
Isn't karma a b*@ch.
Good points lprent. In the UK there have been other spinoffs from the Omicron outbreak and that is the sheer numbers being infected and needing to isolate. Then other industries, particularly mass transit falls over and those who are ell enough to work cannot get to work. So a different set of impacts. May need a different set of mitigations with differing timings as the disease progresses. One of the benefits of the traffic light system allows for flexibility in switching while enabling as many businesses to keep open as sensible.
As far as VitD is concerned my Dr is not keen on supplementation and urged me to get at least 20mins of sun on my forehead ie without hat or sunscreen and for me earlyish in the morning every day. The same advice is good for combatting jet lag, to get outside in your destination in that mid morning time helps the body to switch time zones.
Shanreagh, I am outside quite a lot everyday, and when tested for Vitamin D levels after last summer (spent in the garden), I was in the severely deficient range. Three women friends of menopausal age, who have all been tested – and had results indicating severe deficiency in Vitamin. Two of them keen cyclists, one of whom cycles 30 – 50 km daily.
Apparently, women often lose the ability to metabolise Vitamin D from sunlight as they get older. The current recommendation from doctors to ensure you get a minimum of 20 minutes a day works if your metabolism is still functioning to convert that exposure to Vitamin D. For many, this is no longer the case, and you won't know if you are one of those for whom this is true.
You can consider this anecdotal, and of no importance, but Vitamin D does have a protective role to play in many aspects of good health. Ensuring you have a good level in the blood is a fairly inexpensive way of stacking your odds.
This is the simplest explanation I've seen on the amount of skin to expose to sunlight to get adequate vitamin D metabolised in the blood stream. Shanreagh, having just your forehead exposed is nowhere near enough but it's better than nothing.
https://overcomingms.org/recovery-program/sunlight-vitamin-d/how-much-sun-should-i-get
I think this was a balancing between my family's sun sensitivity and the amount needed for good health. From an early age as children we were not allowed to go out into the sun without protection between 10-2.00pm.
My Dr thought being out in the sun without a hat/sunscreen around morning teatime 10-11am would do me fine……face, hands, sometimes arms exposed. He would have had a fit if I had been out in a swimsuit doing this let alone a bikini like the model in Matiri's reference.
One place I worked a fair skinned Goth colleague was the only other person doing this all year long except for when it was pelting down. He had been told the same thing and had the same fair type of skin.
Food has VitD.
Fatty fish, like tuna, mackerel, and salmon
Foods fortified with vitamin D, like some dairy products, orange juice, soy milk, and cereals
Beef liver
Cheese
Egg yolks
All well and good.
My blood pressure medication says to avoid too much direct sunlight.
Let common sense prevail.
Yes that is true. All of our abilities to do many simple functions diminishes over time, sigh, and some times develop into comorbidities…another sigh.
I am very keen on discussing Vit D but don't get as evangelic about it as i do about the benfits of drinking water!
VitD photosynthesis is only created by UVB – not UVA. It is completely blocked by
The simple rule is 'your shadow must be sharp and shorter than you are tall' in order for the sunshine route to be useful.
The other element that is hard to achieve is full body exposure. It takes on average 30 min of full body exposure in ideal conditions to achieve between 10 – 20,000 IU of VitD. In our pre-industrial state we typically fat stored somewhere between 1 – 2,000,000 IU of VitD over summer that we drew down on over winter. Most of us are going to find it hard to emulate that in our modern lives – unless naturism is your thing.
Modernity has brought many good things, but we're also starting to learn some of the downsides that we overlooked on the way – and social clothing norms and indoor living inadvertently broke that evolved cycle. Hence for most moderns supplementation is necessary to achieve something near to the 60 – 90 ng/ml levels required for good health. All the information you need is out there, but suffice to say it's critical to understand not just the role of VitD but it's partner VitK2 and the role co-factors such as magnesium, zinc and boron play.
All this is relatively new information many GP's will not have had the time nor inclination to discover – but some have. We're lucky to have stumbled across one here in Brisbane, and if you seek out the Functional Medicine types they're typically all over this.
Since my work trip to the Canadian Arctic in 2017 I've been gradually becoming more informed on the VitD story – it's been a fascinating and for both of us an increasingly rewarding journey in all sorts of unexpected ways. I hope you have as much fun with this as we have
Yes Potassium is important and often overlooked. Bananas are high sources of potassium. (And the skins are good cut up and placed around rose bushes!).
All of the elements/vitamins/s exercise/sunshine work together and reinforce the need for exercise and good eating habits. Incidentally my Dr is also a sports medicine Dr and has a large practice of post menopausal women and he is also not keen on OTT eating regimes that strip the body of fat.
Having been tested a couple of years ago and then having a period of time on IV feeding in hospital I know that my Potassium levels are prone to dipping. As I am on on High cholesterol drugs for Familial hypercholesterolemia ('a genetic disorder caused by a defect on chromosome 19. The defect makes the body unable to remove low density lipoprotein (LDL, or bad) cholesterol from the blood. This results in a high level of LDL in the blood') I also have to supplement with VitB as the drugs strip out VitB.
It is fascinating …how our bodies have so many perfectly balanced and intricate systems and processes.
Thanks – I'll checkout the potassium aspect. Any good links?
I've tried to steer a middlish path through the COVID controversies, but if it brings a wider awareness of what real 'public health' might mean – it will turn out a silver lining to what's been a very dark cloud.
Do you know what the evidence base for this is? I've seen it said a fair bit, but it's unclear to me. Presumable there's a curve of decline as the sun lowers in the sky (each day and over the year) rather than a sharp cut off at 45deg.
One of the implications is that the Vit D people at lower latitudes make during the summer and autumn has to get them through the winter and early spring.
Like all things on the internet there are plenty of rabbit-holes to dive down on this, but 45deg is a rule of thumb not an hard cut-off. I probably should have qualified my statement above more carefully.
At the latitude of say Otago which is below this doesn't mean there will be zero UV-B – it's just the level is relatively low and the amount of time necessary for full exposure and a decent summer accumulation is not going to be achievable or comfortable for most modern people.
Otago at present ( mid summer) gets more solar insolation then Auckland.
http://www.physics.otago.ac.nz/eman/weather_station/current.php#solar
the problem is that around the equinoxes the sun is so low in the sky on the south that there may not be much Vit D production. I'm not convinced by the 45deg thing (I've been sunburned in early spring), but obviously there is an issue for those in the south.
Here's a critique of the latitude hypothesis (read this ages ago)
https://www.westonaprice.org/vitamin-d-problems-with-the-latitude-hypothesis/
And the main research it relies on? (haven't read this)
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17142054/
One of aforementioned rabbit holes I think.
Two recent pro-VitD references that are worth offering. The first is Prof Robert Scragg from the UoA School of Medicine giving an overview of research in NZ.
The second link is from Gruff Davies a UK data scientist with a physics background who offers a paper on the VitD/COVID relationship using Causal Inference methodology.
Causal Inference
A lot of very readable material in this paper and has an Appendix explaining why the so called 'gold standard' RCT's are usually nowhere near as useful as the lay public have been led to think they are.
Totally agree. Another factor that has been completely overlooked is that the normal ability of the skin to synthesise VitD decreases with age. (Just as the risks of COVID increase with age).
The main reason why most medics are cautious about VitD supplementation is that there has been conflicting and paradoxical studies on it's impact.
For a long time the results of just VitD and Calcium supplementation in preventing osteoporosis were disappointing. In essence the VitD certainly enabled the absorbtion of the extra calcium, but instead of improving bone density all it did was raise the risk of calcification in places like the heart, arteries and kidneys. It was called the 'calcium paradox' – too little and you got all the issues of falls and fractures, yet any attempt at improving this immediately raised the risk of heart and circulation conditions. There didn't seem to be any sweet spot.
The missing piece of the puzzle turns out to be VitK2 which is essential to get the calcium from the bloodstream and into the bones where you want it.
Again plenty of good info out there if you look – my comments here are not intended as medical advice.
earlyish in the morning every day.
If the sun is at less than 45 degrees, then you're not producing any Vit D- Apparently. Something to do with the angle of the sun and the blocking capacity of ozone. Also. In places with air pollution (mbe not so much of an issue for most locations in NZ), we can't produce VitD.
Sure. In most parts of the continental world that is the case. Too much dust even at the coast. Doesn't apply that much for a country that is never more the 100kms from the ocean and has a negligible atmospheric dust load.
It doesn't really apply that much to places like Auckland in summer. Dunedin I can understand – it seems to be designed to be a place to get really pale. I came home to Auckland from Dunedin and was startled at
Of course there is always fatty fish and most other marine products, egg yolks, mushrooms even before you get to fortified foods and supplements.
Personally I eat all three and even my sun avoiding geekness doesn't have vitD issues, (If I am going to have to have a blood test every quarter, may as well check everything).
Of course there is always fatty fish and most other marine products, egg yolks, mushrooms even before you get to fortified foods and supplements.
I only recently discovered that these 'food routes' are typically 'indirect sunshine'.
For example the hairy mammals like cats and dogs all secrete oil into their fur, where UVB in sunshine then converts it to one of the VitD forms. Then grooming causes the animal to ingest the VitD they need.
Similarly with most marine sources – they're getting it from the photoplankton they eat and if they're an oily species it's well stored.
Mushrooms the same – but only when they're wild and have been exposed to sunlight.
Unless you're eating a very traditional, pre-industrial diet that's almost exclusively from these wild sources – for most of us pale, geeky moderns it's more effective to supplement.
I've no particular quibble with most of this. The very high R value of Omicron ensures hospitalisation will rise very rapidly and this is an operational concern for all the reasons you describe.
And as I mentioned to weka earlier, I'm willing to accept that just because Omicron presents mostly as a less lethal acute disease, there are good reasons to remain cautious on it's long term chronic effects. Especially given it's rather opaque origin and peculiar genetics.
Not to mention that aussies in summer generate a lot of natural vitamin D along with their sunburn.
This was something I would have said myself up to quite recently until I discovered that VitD photosynthesis from sunshine only happens in some rather specific conditions. And while much of Australia is indeed ideal sunshine territory, the people have been trained for several decades now to not to expose themselves to it.
one of the things that we (the public) will learn from omicron, hopefully, is the complex nature of the crisis. It's not a simple matter of pulling out some stats. There are a lot of different and interacting factors, and the the difference between what looks good on paper (stats on initial omicron severity) and what happens on the ground (hospital impact) is stark.
I took your point the other day about confounding factors, just thought it was more a generality rather than looking into the detail.
A very interesting opinion piece on this very topic was published today in the Guardian by two prominent UK Statisticians.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jan/02/2021-year-when-interpreting-covid-statistics-crucial-to-reach-truth
One particularly relevant paragraph from the link above:
my bold
very good, thanks!
Saw another good analogy today, an alleged back-and-forth that might never have happened but I hope it really did.
Good one!
Just as well it wasn't Bobby Riggs saying that about Billy Jean King!
That's alarming. It's a kind of desperation for public health to allow potential infection of staff in order to manage increasing infection in the general population.
I'm curious what the people who object to other restrictions make of that.
https://i.imgur.com/bAAGbVy.gif
Knocked you off your morning perch this morning 🙂
😈
Whoever has been cloning the Open Mike obviously got caught in my maintenance yesterday.
🙂 Yes, I noticed the late start to Open Mike.
Usually someone sets it up a little after 6am. If I’m up early I usually have a look & then sometimes race to try & beat Dennis. 😀
Usually gets set up the previous day and auto unfolds like an ⛱ at 0600
I sent you an e-mail late last night, but my access seems to have been miraculously restored overnight. Will be BAU from now on.
Welcome back
Thanks, but I never really left. Stayed in the furthest corners of TS to schedule OM and DR every day
I made a mistake and the root directory overflowed. To be precise I did
zpool create archive list_of_drives
And forgot to
zpool set mountpoint=/mnt archive
Then proceeded to
rsync holddir /mnt/archive
Cries of dismay from those who delve into and are literate in linux as I hang my head in shame.
Wound up with no space on / and you and everyone else was locked out from logging in or writing comments because there was nowhere to write scratch files.
And I thought I was pretty good figuring out how to delete the photographs on my Olympus camera that were filling up my card…….took me about half a morning but not having to spend $99.00 to get anew card was a good driver. My camera works better with my Mac when taking photographs for TM and Freecycle.
You can usually get into most devices either naturally (eg Mac + iphone) or using a fuse file system or simply popping the card into the card reader on a laptop or desktop. On most things of that type linux or the linux that is OSX find and/or rsync – is your friend.
For instance clearing up old TS database backups (updating that script at present)
find $BACKUPDIR/TheStandardDB_.$TAREXT -mtime +2 -delete
Find all files matching my backup drive directory with the name of TheStandardDB_.tar.xz that have a modified date of more than 2 days and delete them.
rsync is also pretty good at doing moves. I usually clean phone directories using rsync to push the data into my workstations dropbox folder with a
-delete
parameter.Yes I looked for the card reader on this 2nd hand laptop, not the Mac, but thought that as the previous owner had said the CD drive yes I know!!!!), had been removed it wouldn't have a card reader…….doh.
Just now found the card reader on the other side of the laptop.
Used to have a printer that you could put a card in it. Haven't looked on this one. Finally found a set of instructions online and following them brought home to me how important the editing of tech instructions for non tech people is. My cousin used to do this specialised editing.
My prob with the online instructions was that they had left out a couple of steps that would have been easy for a techy but not for a novice to complete. I thought/think even though PCs are great I lost ways of personalising processes that I had when I worked on a mainframe. I had little sets of coding to do tasks. You seem to have some – do these work off Linux?
If those who had written the instructions I followed this morning had to wrap some coding around them to automate them they would have come to a complete stop!
My primary geek nz email is down for the same reason. Turns out virtual box likes wiping its vbox files when it doesn't have disk space. It will be back later today after I dig out what format it wants.
You could try my gmail address. first.second@gmail.com or even thestandardnz gmail
A very cool email addy
Actually first and last
lynn prentice
G'day Incognito, Compliments of the Season to ya.
Thanks and my best wishes to you.
A milestone for Pickles Pook What a clever boy. Thanks Gezza (2).
for those interested, a thread about legislative changes in Norway and how they were achieved:
https://twitter.com/Sappfo_/status/1302625614718001158?t=LAt84W_uAvZq48T_aF66xA&s=19
did you see this?
https://4w.pub/man-convicted-for-misgendering-trans-identified-male/
21 days for 'misgendering' a trans identified male. Lol. Well for what its worth, it finally has arrived the stage where men (human adult males) are starting to get a whiff of this new movement and they better learn to bend the knee and bow down deep to the god of trans lest they end up in prison and / or are having to pay fines.
Ignoring the trans part of that conversation, it sounds like the convicted was a complete fuckwit obsessed by gender issues, and who shouldn't have been allowed on any adult public forum. Too juvenile and childish…
Wouldn't you agree?
If that was the criteria for being able to use social media – or any other 'adult public forum' then half those participating would be excluded.
In this case, however, that engagement resulted in a 21 day jail sentence. Whereas, other more direct threats on social media, have resulted in no consequence.
Although, you may consider – as I do – the level of this person's contribution to discussion to be less than nil, that is not a reason to incarcerate someone.
Could easily do that here as well under multiple acts, including the HDCA. All it would require is for the perp to not show contrition and to try to argue that the court has no right try it – which appears to be what this idiot fuckwit did.
You should really look at the actual legal provisions of NZ before you start to criticise those of other countries.
Of course I am concerned about the similar legislative changes proposed here in NZ, noting the conflation once again of biological sex and gender identity.
(Noting also the shoehorning in of trans as a unspecified protected category that will be defined at a later stage.)
If you can't see the benefit of avoiding unintended consequences by improving legislation before it's passed, that's your perspective. Mine differs.
As a case for discussion, the 2020 conviction of an autistic teen who asked "Is it a boy or a girl?" and was found guilty of a hate crime in Wales.
'Declan Armstrong, 19, was convicted of using abusive or insulting words to cause harassment. According to Judge Roger Lowe, the public order offence was uplifted to medium-level due to its transphobic nature.
He was put under night-time curfew and ordered to pay £590, including £200 compensation to Police Community Support Officer Connor Freel, 25, who was born female but identifies as male. The Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) called the incident a ‘hate crime’. Edward Marsh of the CPS said: “Comments deliberately targeting a person in this way have no place in modern society.”
Now two disability support groups – AXIA-ASD and Action for Asperger’s – have condemned the prosecution and called for the courts to think again when dealing with people with disorders such as Autism and Asperger’s. Elaine Nicholson, CEO of Action for Asperger’s said: “This young man is being punished for his condition; having a communication disorder is what Asperger’s is all about.”
There is also the high number of incidents of a number of people utilising this interpretation of the law to harass and harm people they disagree with.
This particular case has a Trans – stake because it is based on 'trans-rights'. So far it is not that common that we lock up people for being insulting tits, if we had done that previously we could not keep up building prisons and staffing them.
But then, i hear that the for profit prison industry is a good market to invest in to, what do you think?
As I explained in 3.1.1.1.1. The actual offence was almost certainly that of being a idiot fuckwit obsessed by gender issues who challenged the court by saying that they had no legal basis to try him. It did by an act of the legislature, and he now has an opportunity to try the judge's duty to enforce the laws of the land in a court of appeal. I suspect that he and his idiot lawyer will be stupid enough to do that.
It may eventually make it to their equivalent of our supreme court which will look at if the legislature worded the legislation so that the judge was correct in their interpretation or not.
In our case the judgement would be that freedom of expression in BORA is a limited right. It does not include the right to gratuitously insult others for their gender, race, looks, religion, or simply because a offensive fuckwit wants to get their ego off public.
We have a small prison population who have made the same legal mistake. Some are on remand, some on bail, some are still awaiting trial.
As a professional geek, I don’t go around overtly rubbing people up the wrong way simply because they weren’t endowed with the curiosity and drive that is greater than a hamster. If I can keep that strong urge to use my fingers to do that – then so should this idiot gender obsessed fuckwit.
Regardless of you like it or not, freedom of expression does not extend to being a gormless bigot in public to other individuals. And if you feel forced to be one, then it pays to be a a smart one who actually understands some basic legal principles and can avoid forcing a judge to sentence you for simple stupidity.
Incidentally I naturally carefully wrote that last comment so it was lawful and insulting. There is a fundamental legal and societal principle embedded in the comment as to why this would be legal under almost all reasonable legal systems, one that gender obsessed idiotic legal fuckwit did not follow.
I'd be interested if the people above who have a problem with the sentence can understand why? They don't seem to understand it as far as I can see.
I have no idea if or why the dude insulted the other. That is actually not mentioned anywhere. Neither is a picture of either one of them involved that would allow any one to form their own opinion of what was said. We also don't know what let to that altercation, only that it ended with that conversation that what reported to the police as 'hate crime' (or what ever the Norwegian laws to that extend are), and that it lead to a fine and a 21 day sentence.
Now what was said might have been insulting, or it might have been a statement to the fact, who knows we are not giving more information as that. Should that alone be grounds to lock someone up for 21 days? That should be discussed. What else can we not say or if we say it we should expect 21 days in the slammer for wrong speak?
That was my only point for posting this link.
I don't believe the law should be able to send someone to prison for what they say unless it incites violence.
If you take the example JK Rowling who regularly gets death and rape threats, nail bomb threats and doxing, I have to wonder why no action has been taken about the perpetrators of these threats.
Ah a person who believes in waiting at the bottom of the cliff with an ambulance. Good approach for a ghoul – you get more bodies maimed or dead that way.
As far as I am aware so far, the only interesting part of about this case was that the the idiot said that the written law didn’t apply to them because of a higher law. The judge took them at their word, sentenced them, so if they chose to they could appeal to the people who actually balance those higher laws against other laws. They get the chance to argue it in court possibly before and maybe after serving their sentence.
BTW: Have you ever read any analysis of how lynching, pogroms, riots, and every other destructive practice of humans operates. It is almost from people thinking that they can get away with acting like an arsehole to others and having others cheer them on with their non-violent offensive behaviour against other people. They start to think that it is their ‘right’ to do so. That any laws put in place are just there to stifle them. And you find that they end up burning people in their houses or whatever violence happens to be fashionable.
Judges and indeed most lawyers I know tend to be very aware of this. After all any reading of any case law bangs the stupidity of such attitudes home over and over again along with the inevitability of cause and effect about problems between those who think that they have an absolute right to be obnoxious. I had to deal with my old partners law and being a fast reader I spent some time reviewing it. Prefer programming, but laws have inherent logic that is worth looking at when you have questions about why this or that happens.
Basically every bigot idiot, lynch mob, and pogrom starts because anti-social idiots think that they have a ‘right’ to be offensive to ‘others’. Many laws are put in place simply to make sure that idiots find that out before they manage kill or maim others. Doesn’t always work, but the legal balance between ‘rights’ like being a loudmouth bigot and not getting killed or maimed by one is largely there to catch problems at the top of the cliff – not the bottom.
That brings me to the other side. Responsibilities….
I do some support work with computers, where the first question is always the same on any kind of computer failures. Is it plugged in or something equivalent? The second is have you rebooted it? In a good fifth of the cases one of those is the problem.
Hell – I fixed a VoIP issue for someone tonight by powering off and on their router. The router had been running for at least 4 months.
There is an equivalent question that you will find people who have to deals with non-computer social issues always ask, including threats. That is “has XYZ laid a complaint?” Or requested action?
Because in my experience that is usually a small fraction. No force or organisation can take action unless a formal complaint is laid. You also can’t take them to task if they haven’t taken any useful action because none was requested.
Many people go and say that it’d be of no use anyway, or it is too much effort, or it is cheaper to beef up your own security/insurance or whatever. Maybe so. But you can’t know unless it is tried. Also shouldn’t moan and whine about it unless that has happened and failed.
I have also noticed that the people who complain the loudest that something should be done, are also usually those who haven’t lifted a finger in any useful way to help an investigation. Because the first thing that anyone like the police will do is point out that to have a trial it has to be fair and based on evidence – not hearsay. Being a loudmouth moaner doesn’t help. Getting a conviction or substantive action depends on making sure that any subsequent trial or hearing is not contaminated by loudmouths contaminating juries or judges. It is the reason why we have suppression orders.
I have no idea if JK Rowling (vaguely remember her as a fantasy author) has laid complaint about threats or not. But I’d prefer to see an explicit statement that a formal complaint has been laid, and that the authorities are still working on it. If police or whoever drop it, then I’d want to see a copy of the complaint and some idea about evidence before I start getting wound up about that.
Basically hearsay is cheap, usually spun for effect, and most often wrong. So far that is all that I have heard. To me it is meaningless irresponsibility. I might have an opinion based on what I dig out myself and even express my understanding of it. But I tend to treat everything dished up as just being propaganda.
Incidentally, as much as I hit on police for their lackadaisical Luddite behaviour at times, go and ask any mature police officer what they find the most irritating. They will tell you that it is the people who don’t lay charges or who won’t give evidence to enable charges to be laid.
Which is where the other side of a having a right comes into play – acting responsibly.
Incidentally the same principles of balance apply to politics. For that matter for anyone with social duties. Soldiers, nursing staff, police, ambulance staff, wardens, etc. And of course to me.
"Regardless of you like it or not, freedom of expression does not extend to being a gormless bigot in public to other individuals. And if you feel forced to be one, then it pays to be a a smart one who actually understands some basic legal principles and can avoid forcing a judge to sentence you for simple stupidity."
And it appears you missed the point that women on here have been trying to make for many months. There are legislative changes that have the potential to make statements regarding biological sex fall into hate speech by being categorised as transphobic.
Overseas examples are being used, because we have followed the same pattern of changes to legislation, by asking for changes to hate speech, self-id for gender recognition, and conversion therapy. The safeguards requested by submitters that have kept track on how those laws have worked in practical terms have been ignored.
They are already in legislation. Read BORA – legislation since 1990 and the HRA legislation from 1993 that was written with BORA in mind.
That is how they have been treated in the courts for a very long time. Trying to prevent discrimination of this particular facet would be more than 30 years too late.
The former requires that the principles are applied to new and updated legislation. The latter is quite explicit that sexual orientation legally has little to do with biological sex or genetics. It also shows a strong orientation that biological sex is related mostly to child bearing.
What you're looking at in current bills is the routine legislative tidy up that is a requirement of the BORA and less explicitly for the HRA for updated and amended legislation.
Moreover, if you look through our legislation you won't find much that is still in current usage that is explicit about biological sex apart from sections that are explicitly about pregnancy and birth. That is because legislators learnt a long time ago that to make highly explicit legislation based on social circumstances is to provide legal loopholes as society changes under a lagging legal framework.
If you want to see what I mean, just look back to the legislation of 1890s and try to imagine that to be in effect today. Much of it was obsolete withing a few decades after it was made.
As far as I can tell the anti argument is based mostly around customary usage – ie a common law style of legal basis. However in NZ customary usage and common law apply as guiding principle only where not explicitly overridden by legislation.
Essentially what is being proposed by you and others as opposition to updated legislation is not to protect existing law and current established legal interpretation.
It is trying to establish a new legal principle to disadvantage another part of society. It is a new legal principle that its proponents cannot apparently manage to explain (at least to me) the reasons for changing existing law.
Which is why I keep asking for an explanation on why it is important to change the principles of current legislative law.
I'm sure that lawyers amongst us could state that more clearly. However that would be legal advice, be risky, and would probably require an arm or leg to obtain. We all know lawyers are cannibals by customary practice 😈
"Essentially what is being proposed by you and others as opposition to updated legislation is not to protect existing law and current established legal interpretation."
You make this claim but are wrong. It is only recently that sex has been conflated to include gender identity
I suggest once again you make efforts to inform yourself. It's far too hot for me to bother, and I have a reasonable expectation any evidence provided will be casually dismissed.
Recent as in 30 years old in NZ?
As I have pointed out numerous times, I have been asking for an explanation.
Basically everything else is just simple hearsay. But really the drivel I just excluded as being of little interest to me is all the explanation I can see at present.
@lprent.
Apologies for the delay, I was AFK for a while.
I don't comment in line with your priorities or reckons, that's apparent. Your lack of insight or knowledge on this topic is also apparent.
You are making some fairly wide assumptions sans evidence.
Not listening or thinking before masterfully summing up seems to be a common response.
And Sabines piece about the Norwegian man being sent to prison. Watch this happen with our hate speech laws
potential Cis girls need to know their place, and one can not start teaching them their place early enough. Penis is as Penis does does not matter if it hangs of a transwomen or a male.
"“For a minute I thought, ‘Well, there’s no point in putting compost on. I nearly turned around and drove home. But then I thought, for the boys, I have to look forward. So I went in.
“And last time I went in, we planted seeds. I told them that when you are planting seeds, you’ve got something to look forward to. I wanted them to know there is always hope.”"
Seeds of change: Prison garden tutor named Gardener of the Year
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/garden/127318958/seeds-of-change-prison-garden-tutor-named-gardener-of-the-year
Good on Bronwyn. And Ryman Health Care, for sponsoring the award. Nice to see a volunteer horticulturalist having such a positive effect on young prisoners & getting some of them interested in gardening & horticulture as a career.
Great story, and a deserved win.
That is such a good story. "I told them that when you are planting seeds, you’ve got something to look forward to. I wanted them to know there is always hope.”
I've just been planting seeds this morning before the heat. Read this story with the coffee break. It resonated with me because I planted some old seed amongst all of it, so the idea of hope was certainly there. Sowing seed is to do with life stability, hope, connection to a place. I really respect those working in prisons with such motivation- staff and volunteers.
Nearly 90,000 official fatalities in November alone.
Fknows what the rest of their winter will bring.
https://twitter.com/ArielKarlinsky/status/1477531148611985412
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-covid-19-death-toll-climbs-worlds-second-highest-2021-12-30/
The excess death measurements over long term norms have been the most useful at looking at the actual mortality levels across nations and regions.
It certainly has been useful for identifying countries whose governments routinely lie to themselves. Really hard to trust Russian government proclaimations at any time during my lifetime – but it is really starting to look like the primary state of dickwaver farces at present.
What a complete surprise. Not.
Marjorie Taylor Greene (US Rep Congresswowman from Georgia and Covid misinformation spreader) has (finally) been permanently banned from Twitter.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2022/01/twitter-permanently-bans-marjorie-taylor-greene-for-repeated-covid-19-misinformation.html
She joins other Covid persona non grata using Telegram.
Souxsie Wiles and Shaun Hendy have both made complaints that the University of Auckland isn't doing enough to protect them (as employees) from dangerous, jerks.
This is a big issue, and not just because our covid fringe is becoming dangerously extreme.
The education act says that universities, amongst other things, have to "accept a role as critic and conscience of society". That is commonly understood by most academic staff I know to involve publicly speaking out about their areas of expertise.
For a university to essentially state that the risks of speaking out should be minimised by not speaking out – that seems to be a fundamental shift in the resposibilities of academics and universities, and in my opinion most definitely deserves some manner of judicial examination.
Agree that seems a very inappropriate response from a university. Suggesting they comment less in public.
I wonder exactly what they wanted the university to do to protect them from threats, though? We don’t have a lot of info in the article on that.
E.g. I wonder if Hendy wanted Campus Security at his office door, seeing some bloke came to his office & threatened him?
And I wonder where the Police come into this – they’d seem the most appropriate organiation to be following up threats online or in person, perhaps by viewing campus CCTV footage.
Universities have loads of ways of protecting staff and equipment and students.
Most would have centrally-operated door locks on facilities, just to avoid big pouches of keys. These could easily be set to swipe-only access until the heat dies down. Prompt trespass orders. Removing office locations from websites. Then more individually-tailored solutions like panic buttons or relocating carparks, and arranging regular security escorts between offices and vehicles. Many of these are already routinely done for people involved with sensitive research. Many are also trivial amounts of $$$ compared with the
free advertising'community interest' academics in the news produce for an institution – a card lock is like $1200 to bung on a door, last time my work checked. Also, uni IT could be proactive in shutting down threatening emails and social media – just as they would if someone on facebook spoke crap about Auckland Uni.But the specifics aren't the problem, the problem is the suggestion of shutting academics up rather than working with them to figure out what to do.
Sounds like they laid the initial queries and complaints April 2020. From what I understood on twitter (some really crass stupidity on that forum today), the decision made in August was released yesterday or today. The interesting fact is that they appear to have acted quite responsibly in this – there hasn’t been a peep in any media that I know of about this.
Makes me more inclined to look at it.
I’d expect that both have made complaints with the police and possibly Netsafe under the HDCA (the police will send them there would be my bet). Probably with the social media as well (there were some whispers about people being blocked in 2020).
Yes. If the universities don’t wish to lose what little integrity they have left, then they either need to get the legislation amended and become mere technical colleges and I have some ideas about how they could do that better). Or they need to be able to make sure that their academic staff have the ability to spread knowledge, specialist understanding and ideas outside of the cloisters – because otherwise they’re a useless burden that should be stripped down to just doing a teaching role.
Cricket, cricket, cricket!
What a fantastic effort by Bangladesh, a couple of days of out playing the Black Caps and putting themselves in a potentially game winning position
Can the Black Caps come back themselves or are they playing for a draw
For the next test will the selectors swop Ravindra for Mitchell, drop a bowler for Patel or drop a bowler for a Mitchell
South Africa will certainly be following this test with interest
.Captain Samuel Vimes boots theory of socioeconomic unfairness strikes.
Mac Liman estimates she has fixed 14,000 bicycles over the last 18 years. But increasingly, the bikes coming through her Colorado shop are unfixable — and the manufacturers made them that way on purpose.
The influx of these essentially disposable bicycles has Mac raising the alarm about this trend in planned obsolescence. As we’ve covered in earlier editions of Junked By Design, our society is rife with unfixable products, which creates a mounting ecological problem.
[…]
Signs of an unfixable bike
Because Bikes Together works with donated, used bicycles, Mac has to train staff and volunteers how to process incoming bikes. Increasingly, that means teaching people to identify the bikes it’s not worth bothering to fix.
“The job used to be explaining to people how to fix things. Now, it’s explaining why they cannot,” Mac said. “The job used to be fixing; now, it’s stripping them down and scrapping them.”
Bikes Together has a checklist for spotting bikes made too poorly to fix for donation or resale. If you spot three or more of the following characteristics, the bike should be recycled:
https://uspirg.org/blogs/blog/usp/bikes-last-4-months
My partner and I bought 2 bikes in Walmart in 2013 in Salt Lake City and cycled 2,000 km with them across the U.S. When we arrived in San Francisco, a few months later, the bikes were still quite rideable, but when we contacted charities about taking them for free, they told us they weren't interested as they would be too costly to fix up (they only cost about US$80 each in Walmart). Gave them away to a homeless co-op eventually after thinking we might just leave them leant up against a wall. Yes, they were crap Chinese made bikes manufactured for short term use. The spare parts could almost to amount the same cost as the whole bikes!
Look who's laughing all the way to the bank.
https://www.linz.govt.nz/overseas-investment/decision-summaries-statistics/2020-09/202000204
Edit: and again, the self appended 1
When debt meets inflation.
"Sri Lanka is facing a deepening financial and humanitarian crisis with fears it could go bankrupt in 2022 as inflation rises to record levels, food prices rocket and its coffers run dry."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/02/covid-crisis-sri-lanka-bankruptcy-poverty-pandemic-food-prices
The list of countries on the brink grows by the day…..dominoes.