Open mike 04/08/2021

115 comments on “Open mike 04/08/2021 ”

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1. Andre 1

   4 August 2021 at 6:53 am

   I'm a craven coward when it comes to needles. I'm not quite needle-phobic, but I totally get why some people are. I've had more vaccinations than most people will ever get, but it still takes me a huge effort of will to make the appointment and then front up to get jabbed.

   When that moment comes, usually I remember to say something about it. The people administering the jab then go out of their way to make it all go as smoothly as possible. Dealing with that kind of discomfort and outright fear is not an inconvenience to them, it's a part of their job, and they really are experts at helping people through it.

   In the piece below, an outright needle-phobic describes their experience and how they got through it.

   https://www.huffpost.com/entry/needle-phobia-covid-vaccination-trypanophobia_n_61004bcce4b00fa7af7c9500
   • dv 1.1

     4 August 2021 at 7:44 am

     I think the needles have become much sharper and finer too.
     • Andre 1.1.1

       4 August 2021 at 7:49 am

       I think that mostly depends on the properties of what's going in (or out) and how much. But yeah, a tiny syringe with a hair-thin needle is a lot easier to brace myself for than a caulking gun with a harpoon on the end of it.
       • Macro 1.1.1.1

         4 August 2021 at 8:30 am

         Had my first covid injection the other day day. Didn't feel a thing. The person giving the dose had to tell me that it has been administered. Turned down my lollipop 🍭 though. Only visible evidence was my sticker. 🏅
         • Andre 1.1.1.1.1

           4 August 2021 at 8:37 am

           Don't panic when you take the sticker off. Apparently it fades fairly quickly.

           https://twitter.com/freedominguez/status/1367646641403006983
           • Forget now 1.1.1.1.1.1

             4 August 2021 at 10:01 am

             I didn't get a sticker – not even the cotton bud & sticky tape kind that you get after blood tests. Didn't see any droplet of blood even uncovered, but that arm did get a bit sore whenever I lifted it above my head for long for a couple of days after (took maybe an hour for the soreness to develop – also with children, I keep a lot of stuff out of temptations up in high cupboards, so may reach up over my head more than average).

             Though I am delaying my second jab for a couple of months; the 3 week inter-dose interval seems a bit short, compared to the original 12 weeks recommendation. I have linked to the original (pre-print) PITCH study before, but this fortnight old Guardian summary is much less technical. It seems likely that a longer wait between jabs may mean less jabs overall (though study on comparative protection decay rates is ongoing rather than conclusive as yet).

             when compared with a four-week gap, a 10-week interval between the doses produces higher antibody levels, as well as a higher proportion of a group of infection-fighting cells in the body known as “helper” T-cells.

             https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/pfizer-vaccine-second-dose-has-sweet-spot-after-eight-weeks-uk-scientists-say
             • Andre …

               4 August 2021 at 4:27 pm

               The three week interval between Pfizer doses was merely what was used for the Phase 3 trials and therefore the Emergency Use Authorisation. I haven't yet seen any write-ups of whether that was based on actual data from Phase 1 and Phase 2 trials, or was merely Pfizer's best guess at a good interval.

               Then when an infection wave hit and vaccine deliveries were slow, the UK made the decision it was better to give more people the partial protection of the first dose rather than fewer people the protection of the second dose. At the time, is was purely a management and values decision, rather than a data driven one. So it's fortunate in that it's given us a natural experiment that seems to be working out well, but it's going to take a lot of number crunching to come to any conclusions about whether it truly was a good decision from an overall population health perspective. I have the sense the UK has had a lot more breakthrough infections than the US, but I've no idea whether that's due to the UK using a lot of Astra Zeneca, or differences in how hard they're looking for and reporting breakthrough infections.

               The only potential downside I can think of for you is if there's an outbreak in your area in the 5 to 10 week interval from now. Ie, when you would have been fully vaccinated if you followed the normal 3 week interval, and when the full vaccination protection kicks in two weeks after your planned 8-week interval. Seems to me you'd have to be really unlucky for that kind of bad luck to find you in that tight a vulnerable interval.
       • AB 1.1.1.2

         4 August 2021 at 12:19 pm

         Was re-watching Ken Burns' American Civil War doco recently. Those field amputations of arms and legs without anaesthetic seemed a bit challenging. So I suppose we can be grateful that it's only a needle – and not looking helps!
     • Incognito 1.1.2

       4 August 2021 at 7:55 am

       Phobia is not rational.
       • Andre 1.1.2.1

         4 August 2021 at 8:02 am

         Don't I know it!

         I'm eternally grateful my own rationality is strong enough to overcome my near-phobia on this topic. But I really feel for those that have a bigger obstacle to get over than I do.
         • Incognito 1.1.2.1.1

           4 August 2021 at 8:04 am

           I know exactly what you mean, but I’d rather not talk about it.
   • WeTheBleeple 1.2

     4 August 2021 at 8:43 am

     Also needle phobic – which probably saved my life in the 80's…

     I also let them know I'm phobic when getting shots/blood tests etc. They're always really good about it. Only had one who was a clumsy oaf – Doctor not a nurse, go figure.

     1st shot Friday.
   • McFlock 1.3

     4 August 2021 at 2:17 pm

     Had my first one yesterday.

     The vax centre was run really smothly – steady progress, everyone was almost disconcertingly friendly, and the actual process was quick and very mild – better than most flu shots, I reckon.
2. pat 2

   4 August 2021 at 8:03 am

   Would you place your money in a bank if you knew you would get less back when you wanted it?
   • Andre 2.1

     4 August 2021 at 8:05 am

     Depends on what the alternatives are.
     • pat 2.1.1

       4 August 2021 at 8:08 am

       Fair enough…perhaps the question needs rephrasing….you have extra/spare money, what are you going to do with it?
       • Andre 2.1.1.1

         4 August 2021 at 8:32 am

         As it happens, that's a live question for me. My reckons of the moment are:

         It's not going into investment property. Comments on this forum have persuaded me that tenants are a headache I just don't need, let alone compliance with all kinds of new regulations.

         It's probably not going back into the bank, they aren't interested in it enough to pay a reasonable return on use of that money.

         It's not going into financial bonds. They aren't paying much for the use of that money either. Even worse that market is a closed shop run by a predatory financial industry that help themselves to a huge slice of what meager returns are actually there.

         It's not going into crypto. Crypto is the ultimate example of something that has value purely because a bunch of people have deluded themselves it has value. In any kind of tangible terms, it's nothing more than a certificate of gratuitously wasted electricity. With an ongoing gratuitous waste of electricity just to keep that certificate's continuing cyber-existence.

         It might go into some kind of home improvement that lowers ongoing expenses or otherwise improves my life. Such as solar hot-water. But there's nothing really obvious that suits my home at the moment that doesn't have a lot of nonsense council regulatory bullshit to deal with.

         But most likely it will go into a stock market or something based on a stock market somewhere. Which is going to take quite a few hours of research in the current environment to choose something I'm comfortable with.
         • Jimmy 2.1.1.1.1

           4 August 2021 at 8:55 am

           You could go in to the stock market via a unit trust type fund. My Kiwi Saver growth fund is currently doing ok. It mainly invests in shares.
           • Andre 2.1.1.1.1.1

             4 August 2021 at 9:06 am

             Sure.

             But do you know exactly what that fund is invested in? NZ or overseas? What investment strategy do they really have? Growth companies or dividend companies or are they sector oriented (such as a green energy fund)? How much is in cash and fixed interest? For a lot of funds I've taken a close look at, what's on the label doesn't really match what's in the box.

             As it happens, I've got enough experience with stock markets that I've got strategies I'm comfortable with. But without that experience it would certainly be an intimidating shark tank, and some kind of unit trust or index fund is a good way to just dip a toe in that tank.
             • Jimmy …

               4 August 2021 at 10:03 am

               If you are confident and know what you are doing, and have the time, invest in the sharemarket yourself, but for the majority of people, it is safer to go with the éxperts' that have the time and are able to invest in generally balanced portfolios and companies normal investors do not have access to. Milford Asset management or Fisher Funds seem ok.
         • mpledger 2.1.1.1.2

           4 August 2021 at 9:09 am

           Solar power is more flexible then solar water heating.
           • Andre 2.1.1.1.2.1

             4 August 2021 at 9:18 am

             That depends on a lot of factors, such as your power and water use profile, technical ease of installation, local regulatory factors, how much money you can put into it.

             A factor in my case is trees around the house. Yesterdays winds blew a lot of fairly big stuff onto my roof that would fairly likely have damaged any kind of panel, so cost and ease of repair is a significant factor for anything I might put on my roof.
             • Brigid …

               4 August 2021 at 12:51 pm

               Evacuated tube solar water heater then. Those tubes are pretty robust. Plumb it into a wetback in a clean burning wood burner and you'll never pay for hot water again.

               Spend your wealth on reducing your carbon foot print.
               • Andre …

                 4 August 2021 at 4:50 pm

                 So far this year it hasn't got cold enough for me to feel the need to light a fire.Or use any heaters. So a wetback isn't going to do much for me.
         • lprent 2.1.1.1.3

           4 August 2021 at 8:59 pm

           Personally I'd just look at the manged funds that are kiwisaver.

           As investment funds, even in the banks, if you pick the right risk levels they have offered reasonable returns. Personally I wouldn’t use bank kiwisavwe funds – they appear to be lousy pickers of profitable investments outside of property

           There is a lot of reasonably independent information about the fees and past performance rather than the usual bullshit and hype. They are also of a sufficient size to make decent sized investments widely as well – reducing the ability of analysts to screw up too badly.

           If you're over 65, you may not get the employer and govt enhancements, but you don't need to buy a first home to extract the money out either. And you can now continue in your favorite kiwisaver after starting to get super.

           Easier than trying to gamble on you own stocks as well. Don't know about anyone else – but I am chronically short of time.

           Brought the whole of stellaris a fee months ago because civ6 is getting boring at king level (I win too often). Haven't had more than&nbsp a few stray hours to make any mistakes with yet.
       • WeTheBleeple 2.1.1.2

         4 August 2021 at 8:53 am

         Slap solar on all property. Hell, work out a small enterprise and slap up some more to run it. Put up more to charge an EV. Power saving will be a far better return than any bank today.

         Get an EV. I'm just getting a bike for now, a vehicle would be nice.

         Convert lawn to food forest. Aiming for a cottage garden look with many species and support species so it looks beautiful but provides for the household. Extras always welcome at food banks and charity kitchens.

         Maybe, according to energy efficiency of housing, get a really efficient wood burner. For aesthetics, ambience, heating, and for dealing with food forest pruning.

         Invest in an engineer to bring some green-tech inventions of mine to life. Including designs to pull nutrients straight out of our dirtiest rivers.

         Invest in WeTheBleeple with an EV for clean comedy tours, and an engineer for clean BBQ's and clean(er) rivers.

         Water capture. With my own power, gardens and water, apocalypse be damned.

         Half this stuff is already done or in the pipeline, but no harm in lending out good ideas to invest in self.
         • pat 2.1.1.2.1

           4 August 2021 at 10:27 am

           Is solar on the roof 'growth ' however? …we currently have power to pretty much every home, solar on the roof is replacing that which exists, it can be considered maintenance (or substitution), it dosnt necessarily) expand output……that is not to say it is a bad idea.
           • WeTheBleeple 2.1.1.2.1.1

             4 August 2021 at 2:37 pm

             Well, if you're paying a power bill every month, which is par for the course of living in a dwelling, solar is an investment. An investment that will return, in savings, more than any bank is offering. I'm not so sure about growth, cancer is a growth, and growth of economy a cancer of the planet.

             But, as one saves in one area it frees money for another. It's possible to markedly improve ones lot over time using very little starting capital. Any economist worth their salt understands that spending money to reduce expenditure is a wise investment. Those things we get that save or earn for us are true assets.

             The rich love to have their money working for them. This they say is working smarter. A lot of it is plain mooching, but within the rules yadda yadda. Adding nothing to the planet or society, but greedily extracting all they can. Housing, shares in corporation who use dodgy supply chains and glossy PR, planet's got no more time for that garbage. Sure, invest, but do it with ethics. Intangible value is still value.
             • pat …

               4 August 2021 at 3:16 pm

               As said its not necessarily a bad idea but i am talking in aggregate…..for example NZ could indeed grow for a considerable period but only at the expense of other parties, but in total the growth has reversed,

               You will see it as an investment that provides a return but the return is less than what it has replaced and it will become increasingly so everytime it occurs…..ultimately we will do without that which we cannot afford as more and more 'money' chases less and less goods.
               • WeTheBleeple …

                 4 August 2021 at 4:07 pm

                 Perhaps. I think ultimately the rich will have to tighten their belts as their level of consumption is simply ridiculous. But those, like me, slowly building resilience into systems will continue to accrue the benefits of working with nature, community, peers and those I might help up.

                 It's going to be a brave new world, like it or not. How that shapes up will depend on both individual and government effort. The rich, who cares about these people anymore, they suck.

                 I had one complaining recently her maid was no longer available as she had to care for her covid stricken father and had no health insurance (USA). She's the employer but failed to see the problem was her own cheapskate employment namely get a Mexican to do it and screw the paperwork and insurance.
   • Incognito 2.2

     4 August 2021 at 8:09 am

     What money?

     The verb “place” implies a voluntary act, one which might be based on informed consent and thoughtful consideration (and calculation).

     Are you serious?
     • pat 2.2.1

       4 August 2021 at 9:17 am

       Deadly serious.

       I realised it would be taken as a reference to the current housing market but it is a more comprehensive question…..what do those (including on our behalf e,g, managed funds) do with savings? and why?…they seek return, even if only small , however if that return disappears what then will happen?…under the metaphorical mattress?

       Return (interest) requires growth of output (that can be substituted by credit growth, but only temporarily) so when growth ceases (id argue it has in reality) there is no longer the possibility of return (in aggregate)…the current monetary system ceases to function.

       We (the public) just havnt realised it yet .

       What follows?

       The basis of our existence (supply of goods and services) currently requires confidence that those numbers on the bank statement can be traded for (crucially) available goods and services.
       • WeTheBleeple 2.2.1.1

         4 August 2021 at 10:04 am

         Just as an aside.

         Recently I had 2 accounts with matching balances, except one was $1000 in debit, the other $1000 in credit.

         I was charged $6 (for the month) on the debit.
         I was given $0.10 interest for the credit.

         Banks, pfft. Who'd invest in banks?
         • Jimmy 2.2.1.1.1

           4 August 2021 at 10:22 am

           That's how banks make their money and record massive profits! They love customers that owe them money.
           • alwyn 2.2.1.1.1.1

             4 August 2021 at 12:09 pm

             Indeed they do. The term for a person who pays off their credit card in full every month and never exceeds their credit limit is a freeloader.

             It isn't meant in a complimentary way of course. And they don't really like you that much.

             As far as WTB's story above goes, I'd invest (buy shares in) any Bank that had lots of customers like him. Those are the good customers to have.

             Or they are mugs, if you prefer the term.
             • WeTheBleeple …

               4 August 2021 at 2:41 pm

               It was one of those 'interest free' student loans (with monthly fees). But, when no longer a student, they pounce!

               I'll go in, pay it off and shut it down. Cheeky buggers.
               • alwyn …

                 4 August 2021 at 3:13 pm

                 Hey, it happens to everyone. And I wasn't meaning to refer to you specifically as a mug. It is the way the Banks tend to think though.

                 I am very much on the side of the freeloaders. I put everything I can on my credit card, providing the person I'm buying from doesn't charge extra, and then let the Bank automatically debit the full amount due on the card at the last possible date. I don't have to worry about having enough money in my current account except on the actual day the credit card payment will be charged so I am much less likely to go into an overdraft situation..

                 It is simply too much trouble to try and keep track of all the fine details of where my money actually is all the time. I probably take a great deal more care than most and I still miss things though. You can't ever win.
             • Jimmy …

               4 August 2021 at 3:12 pm

               I am a freeloader then. I had never heard that before.
               • alwyn …

                 4 August 2021 at 3:29 pm

                 That is the polite word. In the US a more common term is deadbeat.
                 • Jimmy …

                   4 August 2021 at 4:53 pm

                   Teenagers at school should be taught how to use a credit card, paying off monthly is smart use of money. Not sure what they charge now on balances not paid monthly, 19%? 21%?

                   Like you, I put everything on the credit card and pay off on the last day.
                   • Patricia Bremner …

                     4 August 2021 at 7:24 pm

                     Some are 13%
           • Brigid 2.2.1.1.1.2

             4 August 2021 at 12:54 pm

             They make most of their money charging interest on loans they create. Commonly known are mortgages
         • pat 2.2.1.1.2

           4 August 2021 at 10:23 am

           At least you can sleep on a mattress.
       • McFlock 2.2.1.2

         4 August 2021 at 2:32 pm

         So let's say putting money in the bank costs money.

         That doesn't mean the end of the economic system. It just means that banks won't make their money from lending yours, unless they provide you with some benefit other than paying interest.

         Security, for one. Sure, there is a known cost for that security, just as you'd have to pay the guards to watch your treasure chests if you stored your cash like a merchant in Thief . But being able to know that if you put $50 in today means you'll get $45 back in two years guaranteed is possibly worth something.

         Universality in payments – cash is good, but not as good as cards, e-transactions, person-person direct credits… old style wire-transfer companies like Western Union charge for that, so do banks.

         I'm sure there are other benefits, like not getting mugged as you walk out the factory on pay day.
         • pat 2.2.1.2.1

           4 August 2021 at 2:58 pm

           First off banks dont lend your money (deposits)…..they are security.

           Secondly if you have zero or negative interest rates what are you doing?…..destroying money, just as you do when principal is repaid…..difficult to increase money supply (growth) when you have a structural mechanism that works in the opposite direction…the expected consequence is that deposits will exit the banking system should this occur (one reason CBDCs are being set up currently)

           Zero / negative interest rates are an admission that there is no projected growth in the future and as said without growth there is no interest……no return= no investment….thats everything, pension funds, managed funds, etc.

           Everything we have designed our societies around is based on the expectation there will be more tomorrow.

           Those railing against Degrowth as a strategy may not know it but its already happening.
           • McFlock 2.2.1.2.1.1

             4 August 2021 at 3:42 pm

             Except the managed funds will move even further away from bank deposits than they already have.

             Don't get hung up on thresholds. Interest rates are pretty darn low at the moment, and the rest of the economy is still ticking along nicely.
             • pat …

               4 August 2021 at 3:56 pm

               It is apparent you have no counter argument….fair enough, we wont get hung up on our and our offsprings future, we'll just buy another inflated bit of real estate and pretend its all good.

               Managed funds dont frequent bank deposits….but bonds on the other hand.

               Ask yourself why that might be….particularly if youre thinking of investing in crypto.
               • McFlock …

                 4 August 2021 at 4:42 pm

                 lol Andre summarised crypto pretty well.

                 My argument is that banks aren't anywhere close to being the only investment around town. Their rates are fixed according to their priorities, which aren't always the same as the macroeconomic conditions (any more than the bookie's favourite is always the same as the horse most likely to win).

                 Sure, property is an option. Or local startups, or cowdfunded investments like Pledge Me.

                 Just because one part of the system is cooling down it doesn't mean the entire system is screwed. Heck, it could be what's stopping the entire thing from overheating, if another part (property) is still running far too hot.
                 • pat …

                   4 August 2021 at 4:48 pm

                   You have completely missed the foundation of the point

                   agregate

                   adjective
                   /ˈaɡrɪɡət/
                   ECONOMICS
                   denoting the total supply or demand for goods and services in an economy at a particular time.
                   • McFlock …

                     4 August 2021 at 4:55 pm

                     Well, you started with a simple "Would you place your money in a bank if you knew you would get less back when you wanted it?"

                     so, the answer was yes, if they offer some other service.

                     Now you seem to be plugging a sort of reverse of the "banks create money from thin air" thing, where negative interest destroys money? And that this will lead to an end to economic growth and the collapse of the system as we know it? Is that your point?

                     ^”aggregate”
                 • pat …

                   4 August 2021 at 4:56 pm

                   follow the thread….it has progressed.

                   I note your original comment was under 2.2.1 so you know that.
                   • McFlock …

                     4 August 2021 at 5:08 pm

                     Mate, I'm still trying to figure out what it might mean to have "spare money" and be in a position to "invest".

                     But if the banks start charging people money to keep deposits, people won't do it if they don't have to.
                   • Incognito []

                     4 August 2021 at 5:25 pm

                     Mate, I’m still trying to figure out what it might mean to have “spare money” and be in a position to “invest”.

                     QFT, which is why I asked whether Pat was serious (and they are). When you have a mortgage, for example, banks force you to have all your ‘business’ with them and a big chunk of your wages disappear straight into a black hole.
                   • pat …

                     4 August 2021 at 5:39 pm

                     Banks require your wages/salary to be deposited (usually)….they currently dont determine whether it remains there.

                     A considerable portion of the population lacking 'spare' money simply highlights the issue.
                   • pat …

                     4 August 2021 at 5:52 pm

                     @ McFlock

                     Do you contribute to Kiwisaver?…if so would you continue to do so if the balance was reducing rather than growing?
                   • McFlock …

                     4 August 2021 at 9:54 pm

                     So I switch out my kiwisaver choice. How does that destroy money?
                   • pat …

                     4 August 2021 at 10:29 pm

                     You changing your provider or fund dosnt…..negative returns do however.
                   • McFlock …

                     4 August 2021 at 10:41 pm

                     No they don't. Negative returns just mean I made a loss. It's not like burning $50 notes.
                   • pat …

                     4 August 2021 at 11:09 pm

                     In aggregate…think systemic.

                     with negative rates 'you' havnt made a loss….everyone has made a loss….it isnt zero sum, its a slow motion default by the issuer.

                     A straight forward explanation in the link.

                     https://www.businessinsider.com.au/how-negative-interest-rates-would-work-2015-11?r=US&IR=T
                   • McFlock …

                     4 August 2021 at 11:29 pm

                     That article discusses several different mechanisms. A negative OCR rate is not the same as paying less than face value for returned notes, is it?

                     If that gets passed on, the bank is getting paid to borrow money. Maybe paying me for the same service doesn't seem so sensible if it can be paid by the govt to get more bonds. It might even start paying people to borrow from it, for cars or businesses or homes. As long as they pay less to people to borrow bank cash than the bank pays the government, the bank still makes money. People borrow and spend rather than save. There's still money going around the economy.
                   • pat …

                     5 August 2021 at 12:13 am

                     A negative OCR (or bond) is effectively the same as paying less than face value on a note.

                     The bank isnt being paid to borrow money, it is being charged to hold it at the central bank to encourage them to lend it out…..but in an contractionary environment there are a dearth of takers….the risk of default or losses is too high. And whose money is being held there?…depositors.

                     How long will it remain there when the balance is decreasing?

                     Of course there may be compulsion to capture those savings in the system and the loses are then unavoidable….and the Bastille may be stormed again.

                     And yes there is still money going round the system, but increasingly less and at a slower velocity.
                   • McFlock …

                     5 August 2021 at 12:55 am

                     A negative OCR (or bond) is effectively the same as paying less than face value on a note.

                     Only if you knew you were going to get less than the face value back when you wanted access to the money.

                     Lower income folks have dealt with negative interest rates for decades: they're called "bank fees", and they're a much bigger effect on income than the interest you're supposed to get from the bank for your deposit.

                     The difference is that the poor pay even more to borrow money than they pay to have the bank hold it for them.

                     Also, depositors' money isn't held in the RB settlement accounts. The banks' money is. Deposits are guaranteed by the government for most banks, no?

                     But the main question is whether overall negative rates would have a cooling effect on the economy. Well, no. Surely the opposite? The flipside of charging people to be in credit is that you pay them if they are in debit. So banks borrow more from the RBNZ so their accounts are in debit. More money in the economy.

                     RBNZ seems somewhat phlegmatic about the prospect.
                   • pat …

                     5 August 2021 at 2:08 am

                     "Also, depositors' money isn't held in the RB settlement accounts. The banks' money is. Deposits are guaranteed by the government for most banks, no?"

                     The banks money are the deposits…and its not guaranteed (see bail in) though there is talk of deposit insurance in the future but that can be potentially made invalid by bail in.
                   • McFlock …

                     5 August 2021 at 2:05 pm

                     holy shit, you're right. We're apparently the only country in the OECD without deposit guarantees. Although govt's slowly progressing on that front.

                     But in a negative OCR environment, the banks are still being paid to borrow, rather than being paid to be in credit. So they'll be able to either take that profit or pass on that cheaper credit to retail borrowers (more borrowers = more business = more profit). Essentially a cash injection into the domestic economy from the Reserve Bank.
                   • pat …

                     5 August 2021 at 2:34 pm

                     "A negative OCR would mean the Reserve Bank of New Zealand charges retail banks, such as ANZ, to deposit their funds, or excess reserves, with them overnight. By doing this, the central bank is incentivising these banks to lend out more money to their clients, even if it’s at a reduced rate. "

                     And OCR is thin end of the wedge…..negative yielding bonds are when things get interesting.

                     https://www.anz.co.nz/personal/investing-kiwisaver/tips-tools/news-and-views/What-a-negative-Official-Cash-Rate-could-mean-for-you/
                   • McFlock …

                     5 August 2021 at 3:10 pm

                     By doing this, the central bank is incentivising these banks to lend out more money to their clients, even if it’s at a reduced rate.

                     Didn't I say something similar?

                     Banks borrow from RBNZ. People borrow to spend rather than saving in the bank. People with too much spare cash (lol) find more random things to spend on – companies, luxury goods, property. Goods companies increase inventory assets or facitilies rather than cash+lean production.

                     If that goes too far, they'll push up interest rates and shift the balance back towards saving for them that can.
                   • pat …

                     5 August 2021 at 3:15 pm

                     "Banks borrow from RBNZ."

                     Banks could (until recently) get cheap funding from the RBNZ via the TLF, but that was barely used.

                     Banks create credit , the only funding they need is to meet their reserve requirements, not for lending.
                   • McFlock …

                     5 August 2021 at 3:20 pm

                     ok, so I'll rephrase it to "banks [minimise their deposits at RBNZ. Banks lend the non-deposited funds to people and companies at a lower rate than they otherwise would have]. People borrow to spend rather than saving in the bank…." etc
                   • pat …

                     5 August 2021 at 3:34 pm

                     There are rules to be met around what banks have to keep at the RBNZ.
                   • McFlock …

                     5 August 2021 at 3:37 pm

                     Which means that even if your concerns about negative interest rates were bang on the money, the impact of them would be limited by those rules.
                   • pat …

                     5 August 2021 at 3:48 pm

                     the effect would be restricted to the reserves you suggest….not really because if you read any of the links I have posted you will see there are flow on effects through the system, but even more so as i stated earlier it is the thin end of the wedge…experience to date suggests that to have the desired effect (spurring growth through risky lending) then the rates need to be deeply negative (-4% or more) ….and if the OCR is negative then bonds will follow (though they may even without a negative OCR) and that is where the slow motion default occurs.

                     In short, the RBNZ is buggered whichever way it goes.
                   • McFlock …

                     5 August 2021 at 6:19 pm

                     Either the flow-on effects will be more significant than RBNZ expects, or it needs to go lower than -4% to have the desired effect, surely?

                     OCR is one accelerator/brake on the economy, applied gently. If things start going south, RBNZ can lift back into positive OCR.

                     Personally, I think giving the govt some preferred low interest bonds for infrastructure is a better idea than focusing on OCR as the main tool. I'm not quite full social credit by any means, but some solid public investment in housing in particular might be an idea.
                   • pat …

                     5 August 2021 at 6:27 pm

                     I fear you are missing the intent of negative rates…..it isnt designed to assist public policy, it is designed (hoped?) to force high risk lending to promote growth…..what good outcomes do you see there even if it achieves its desired effect, despite the fact it has failed to date where it has been implemented.
                   • McFlock …

                     5 August 2021 at 6:36 pm

                     Yeah the OCR is strictly a tool to heat up or cool down economic activity.

                     I just figure might as well kill two birds with one stone if they're looking to keep bunging money into the economy.

                     Trouble is that the current economy is skewed in a couple of different ways – unemployment down, labour shortage, house prices through the roof, but non-property inflation is still quite low. So money is going into property rather than pay packets. Which means employees aren't spending more.

                     A lot of this might be covid and the global economy, but it might also be a byproduct of the housing market.
3. Sacha 3

   4 August 2021 at 11:16 am

   Official Stats NZ unemployment rate down to 4%. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/unemployment-plunges-to-4-per-cent-biggest-quarterly-fall-in-35-years/P6OEE5X4G2C7WTN67NEC3APTEI/
   • Ad 3.1

     4 August 2021 at 1:44 pm

     The number of people unemployed in New Zealand has been dropping by more than 1000 a week in recent months.

     Looking forward to seeing the government feeling the pressure like everyone else of not being able to get overseas staff, having to pay more such as to nurses, and having their service offering affected by simply having their staff poached all the time.

     When you get down to 4% the kinds of people left for labour are those who have a combination of: been in jail, been on drugs, have no qualifications, have mental illness or substantial disability, have no work discipline like turning up, and need vast amounts of training and support $$ put into them to get them useful and functioning for sustained work.

     That's a good pressure for employers and public service alike to face up to. See if we can get to 3% and do real deep good for the country.
     • pat 3.1.1

       4 August 2021 at 1:48 pm

       would be even better if we managed to get a fair number of rentiers doing something productive as well…..and that 4% figure is only of those available and actively seeking work, so your description may be somewhat inaccurate.
       • arkie 3.1.1.1

         4 August 2021 at 1:53 pm

         Also a 30hr a week position is classified as a full time job, so the level underemployment is not be measured and will still be an issue.
         • pat 3.1.1.1.1

           4 August 2021 at 1:58 pm

           the narrative must not be challenged…..we are an economic superstar and the economy is firing on all cylinders.
         • Sacha 3.1.1.1.2

           4 August 2021 at 7:06 pm

           Under-employment is measured.
           • arkie 3.1.1.1.2.1

             4 August 2021 at 7:17 pm

             Right.

             About the underemployment measure

             Underemployed people are those who are employed part-time (working less than 30 hours a week) and have both the desire and availability to increase the number of hours they work.

             https://www.stats.govt.nz/reports/characteristics-of-the-underemployed-in-new-zealand

             So, as I was saying, those working 30+hrs/week who have the desire and the availability to increase the number of hours they work are not classified as underemployed. Perhaps I should have said underemployment is not measured accurately.
     • Stuart Munro 3.1.2

       4 August 2021 at 2:08 pm

       When you get down to 4% the kinds of people left for labour are those who have a combination of: been in jail, been on drugs, have no qualifications, have mental illness or substantial disability, have no work discipline like turning up, and need vast amounts of training and support $$ put into them to get them useful and functioning for sustained work.

       No doubt you have this information from employers who, by lying their asses off, managed to almost entirely supplant NZ workers from many of our major industries. These employers are mostly greedy, dishonest, abusive, unreliable, incompetent, and strangers to the truth. Small wonder that they struggle to attract workers – and the way to do so begins with respect – not slagging everyone off.
       • Ad 3.1.2.1

         4 August 2021 at 2:48 pm

         No I get this information from working for many years in one of the largest private employers in New Zealand who face labour shortages every day at every single level of the business.

         We pay well over the odds, have deep, multi-year extensive programmes taking in recommended individuals from MSD, Corrections, MoJ, NZDF, NZTA, iwi corporates, and others, and have massive training programmes that cost tens of millions to run to help these people function.

         It ain't lack of respect that stops people getting good jobs.
         • Stuart Munro 3.1.2.1.1

           4 August 2021 at 3:01 pm

           I'm sure what you write is consistent with your experience. What I wrote is consistent with mine.

           There are a significant group of employers who have illegally, and in a way that is frankly racist, avoided employing NZ staff for a good long while now.

           Nor is it unheard of for institutional recruiting to create its own problems.
         • Brigid 3.1.2.1.2

           4 August 2021 at 6:16 pm

           " largest private employers"

           Warehouse? McDonalds?

           Does this large private employer offer 'good jobs'?
           • Incognito 3.1.2.1.2.1

             4 August 2021 at 6:21 pm

             Silly question, why do you think Ad is moonlighting here on The Standard?
             • Sacha …

               4 August 2021 at 7:09 pm

               recruiting 🙂
             • Ad …

               4 August 2021 at 8:07 pm

               Nah you all sound retired.
               • Andre …

                 4 August 2021 at 8:15 pm

                 Seem a somewhat bolshie bunch, too. Not sure I'd want the job of trying to manage this lot.

                 Come to think of it, I wouldn't want the job of trying to be my manager, neither.
           • Ad 3.1.2.1.2.2

             4 August 2021 at 8:07 pm

             Puh-leeeze.
         • Sacha 3.1.2.1.3

           4 August 2021 at 7:08 pm

           Lack of respect is exactly what stops many disabled people from getting jobs they are perfectly capable of doing.
     • AB 3.1.3

       4 August 2021 at 3:41 pm

       "When you get down to 4% the kinds of people left for labour are those who …"

       Impressive list that maybe tends towards stereotype. Either way, I think "60 or over" might possibly be added to it. Though the fact that it used to be "55 or over" is an improvement.
4. Forget now 4

   4 August 2021 at 11:45 am

   Not enough toilets to cry in! Does the new Dunedin hospital need to be designed with specially designed individual staff-distress rooms (because seeking out the least sterile place imaginable in a hospital, and touching your watering eyes there, seems like a really bad idea for an ED nurse)? I am guessing that they don't want to go to the shared staff-rooms and weep in front of their already stressed colleagues.

   Pressure of high patient numbers and low staffing levels routinely meant staff went into the toilets to cry, emergency department health and safety representative Anne Daniels said.

   Last Thursday, after a nurse told her there were no toilets free to cry in, Ms Daniels lodged a provisional improvement notice (Pin) with the Southern District Health Board.

   The notice, an action under the Health and Safety at Work Act, requires a workplace to display the notice and take steps within eight days to address the safety issues raised or face possible further action…

   SDHB senior staff met Ms Daniels and emergency staff and management on Monday to discuss the Pin and will meet again tomorrow.

   https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/health/someone-will-die-ed-staff-take-legal-action-work-conditions

   Meanwhile, the DHBs deny taking the NZNO to court is antagonistic, insisting their relationship remains good.

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/448342/nursing-union-dhbs-at-odds-over-impact-of-employment-court-action
   • Ad 4.1

     4 August 2021 at 1:47 pm

     That Southern DHB has had a massive report last month into systemic failures including at a governance level.

     Not quite sure how the Chair Pete Hodgson survives.

     Hey Minister: how does a full merger of all DHB's assist this situation when we are so deep in a service hole?
     • McFlock 4.1.1

       4 August 2021 at 3:06 pm

       Didn't he only get the job recently?
       • Forget now 4.1.1.1

         4 August 2021 at 3:35 pm

         Getting on for 9 months now; McFlock, Cull was getting a bit sick to do the job:

         https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/hodgson-named-new-head-sdhb

         But it's not just the SDHB, it is the entire health system – though the old Dunedin hospital in particular does have its own issues. This may at least coax them into long overdue action, which to me is more important than who gets saddled with the blame.

         The next step would be prosecution under the Health and Safety at Work Act 2015, which has severe penalties for running an unsafe workplace. The officers of the DHB are individually liable (and legally cannot be insured), and face fines of up to $300,000. If they're found to be reckless – which a long history of ignoring safety complaints should establish – then they could go to jail. Which you'd think would provide an incentive. And it also shows what else nurses could do if their concerns about safe staffing continue to be ignored. DHB's can either address them cooperatively through the bargaining process, or they can defend themselves against prosecution by WorkSafe. Their choice.

         http://norightturn.blogspot.com/2021/08/one-way-of-fixing-it.html
         • McFlock 4.1.1.1.1

           4 August 2021 at 3:38 pm

           Time flies, huh.

           The worksafe prosecution will probably arrive just in time for the DHB to be disestablished [he said pessimistically]
   • gsays 4.2

     4 August 2021 at 6:29 pm

     I hope the Dunedin nurses get a better result with their PIN than what our DHB came up with.

     In short a unit to take the excess when it gets busy. They were a bit vague on how it will be staffed.

     Does anyone know the outcome of the PIN at Wellington Hospital?
     • Sacha 4.2.1

       4 August 2021 at 7:44 pm

       Do you have a link about the Wellington PIN?
       • gsays 4.2.1.1

         5 August 2021 at 12:51 pm

         I have just gone looking and came up with an answer to my question.

         https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/security-issues-short-staffing-concerns-addressed-in-wellingtons-overcrowded-ed/ASBDIBHKGZ4SM2PXLXCHLF5J74/

         The earlier article.on stuff i am struggling to find.
         • Sacha 4.2.1.1.1

           5 August 2021 at 7:25 pm

           Cheers. Molly found another one about Palm Nth that links to an earlier story about Welli.
5. dv 5

   4 August 2021 at 1:05 pm

   Employment rate high so increase interest rates!!!

   So cost more to borrow, so can't won’t employ more!!!!
6. greywarshark 6

   4 August 2021 at 1:15 pm

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/448417/nz-naive-to-shut-down-marsden-point-australian-analyst

   The government has received starkly different advice, but the latest and most substantial advice downplays the risks.

   The head of the Northern Australia Strategic Policy Centre Dr John Coyne is aghast.
   "They're very naive," he said.

   "They're buying into a very dated view of globalisation, and they certainly haven't learned the lessons from Covid-19, around secure supply chains and national resilience."

   The pandemic disproved assumptions that global supply chains could readily deliver, whether it was vaccines or oil, he said.
   "If you listen to the oil companies, they'll tell you that all the risk is under control."

   But they could not manage the complexities, when conflicts could escalate very quickly, trade splits were deepening, and one natural disaster might pile on top of another, he said.

   "If the oil refinery in New Zealand closes, you are totally reliant on oil companies doing the right things … a really dangerous proposition."
   • pat 6.1

     4 August 2021 at 1:28 pm

     And not just oil….of that which is critical what is produced in NZ?

     Very little.
7. Incognito 7

   4 August 2021 at 2:28 pm

   It is easy to see how conspiracy theories form, take shape, and grow. It can start with a plausible story that one starts to believe as true and accurate and then helps to spread. When it comes to Auckland’s so-called ghost houses I have been guilty of this too (and on the record here).

   The Jackal has just penned a blog on this and makes a few misinformed statements.

   http://thejackalman.blogspot.com/2021/08/people-could-live-in-those-ghost-houses.html

   In 2015, Vector found around 8000 homes in Auckland – or 1.6 per cent of all dwellings at the time – were unoccupied, meaning they had used less than 400W of power a day for 100 days or more.

   Most of them were in northern beach suburbs and Waiheke Island, which led the company to conclude they were holiday homes and baches.

   https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/auckland-council-wants-to-fill-thousands-of-ghost-houses-but-may-have-to-get-around-privacy-concerns-first/S42YSJRWJP6OJZVTOWEAIQSVLI/

   Unfortunately, and despite good intentions, legalistic bureaucracy seems to sink any efforts to get to the bottom of this.

   His [Auckland mayor Phil Goff] plan is to ask power company Vector to locate homes not using any electricity.

   But Vector says it can't share that data with the Council due to privacy obligations

   "Under current contract provisions and our privacy obligations, we cannot use this data for non-network related activities or projects."

   https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/01/push-for-people-to-allow-homeless-to-live-in-empty-investment-properties.html

   But wait, there’s more!

   While Goff believed that Watercare would also be able provide data on vacant houses, the organisation said this was not possible.

   A spokeswoman said that its meters were not set up to measure zero water use.

   Any research would be complicated by blocks of flats with shared water meters or single properties with multiple meters, she said.

   https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/auckland-council-wants-to-fill-thousands-of-ghost-houses-but-may-have-to-get-around-privacy-concerns-first/S42YSJRWJP6OJZVTOWEAIQSVLI/

   So, on the preponderance of very little and a lot of bias and ‘common sense’ many, myself included, have jumped to conclusions. No wonder we jump up & down because the authorities do next-to-nothing, as usual …
   • weka 7.1

     4 August 2021 at 5:09 pm

     Sorry, which is the inaccurate bit?
     • Incognito 7.1.1

       4 August 2021 at 5:57 pm

       The conclusions drawn from the Census data regarding the number of ghost houses in Auckland, for example.

       It is challenging to quantify the number of unoccupied dwellings.

       https://www.treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2021-04/tax-housing-4417128.pdf [very interesting document entitled Taxation of vacant land and vacant dwellings from Treasury to the Minister of Finance (Grant Robertson)]

       Other than residents that were away on Census night, there is no other information explaining why 22,000 dwelling were empty. Obvious reasons are that the unoccupied dwellings are being repaired or renovated, or they could be baches or holiday homes.

       https://taxworkinggroup.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2019-02/twg-bg-4037441-taxing-vacant-property.pdf [document entitled Taxing vacant property, a Position Paper of the Tax Working Group]

       https://www.hud.govt.nz/assets/News-and-Resources/Proactive-Releases/4-BRF2021010838-Improving-housing-supply-more-information-REDACTED.pdf [a third document, for good measure; search on “Vector” (one hit)]
       • pat 7.1.1.1

         4 August 2021 at 6:30 pm

         ". It is difficult to accurately quantify the number of unoccupied houses. 2018 census data suggested there were close to 200,000 empty homes nationwide on census night, with approximately 39,000 unoccupied dwellings in the greater Auckland area, but this data is likely to overstate the size of the issue."

         It is difficult…but not impossible if the will is there

         "In considering whether to recommend a tax on vacant properties, the most recent Tax Working Group referenced this study and recommended not doing further work. The Group noted that international evidence showed limited effectiveness of such taxes in reducing the number of vacant properties. MBIE is now working with the Electricity Authority to try and obtain electricity usage data more broadly, as part of an Energy Poverty initiative (in partnership with HUD, EECA and others). We understand that little progress has been made on this, in part due to concerns about commercial sensitivity of the data."

         Our old friend 'commercial sensitivity'

         "Wise Group has been in discussion with HUD and its predecessors since 2016, seeking funding for the development of the Empty Homes initiative. The original proposal sought funding for $2 million, over 2 years, to undertake a proof of concept and subsequent rollout of the initiative. In late 2019, Wise Group approached HUD with a unique unsolicited proposal to identify the scale of empty homes in Auckland, and to test property owners’ appetite and willingness to rent these properties to middle income families/New Zealand’s key workers. Ministers agreed to allocate $500,000 from the Budget 2019 homelessness contingency towards this initiative, as a grant. In consultation with HUD, Wise Group has refined the proposal to focus on Waikato instead of Auckland, and a grant offer was provided to Wise Group on 24 December 2020. 163. If the offer is accepted, the project will commence from 31 January 2021 and HUD will receive the first report back in early April. Wise Group's preference is not to do any significant announcement until the project is underway. HUD will keep Ministers updated on progress and results."

         We'll get round to it but lets try somewhere likely to be a little less contentious and where we might get more favourable results…..and too late to impact the next election.
       • weka 7.1.1.2

         4 August 2021 at 6:58 pm

         I'm still not getting it. What's the conspiracy theory? Or the problem? That people say there are empty houses when there aren't? Or the reasons for them being empty?
8. Patricia Bremner 8

   4 August 2021 at 3:02 pm

   At the end of our 6 year motorhome exploration of New Zealand, we lived parked on our property( a 2 bed unit) while we stripped out the unit kitchen and bathroom, as it had been 21 years since the last revamp.

   That work, plus flooring and painting took 8 weeks. Doubtless there are many revamping properties before sale or retirement? Homes are empty for a variety of reasons. Not all are second homes either. 40 000 does not seem too many out of 540 000 properties. Stats may be misleading at times.
   • McFlock 8.1

     4 August 2021 at 3:46 pm

     Most renos use more than 400W of power a day, surely? Lights, tools, etc?

     Would 400W even cover a hot water cylinder?
     • Andre 8.1.1

       4 August 2021 at 4:45 pm

       As an engineer, I have no idea what is meant by "400W a day", and I get really wary of any journalist that misuses units that way.

       Daily electricity consumption is charged in kilowatt-hours. My average daily consumption is about 5 kWhr per day, averaging 208 watts over 24 hours. But my peak half-hourly consumption is up around 1 kwhr, meaning I'm using upwards of 2000 W continuously for that half hour. That happens when pizza is in the oven, or the 1800W water heater has just kicked on at 11pm.
       • McFlock 8.1.1.1

         4 August 2021 at 4:51 pm

         hmmm.

         Fair call.

         I was just viewing it as watt-hours, i.e. running a 1kw heater for just under half an hour.
       • Incognito 8.1.1.2

         4 August 2021 at 5:20 pm

         As an engineer, I have no idea what is meant by “400W a day”, and I get really wary of any journalist that misuses units that way.

         This time, it doesn’t seem to come from a journalist; it is also quoted in Government and Treasury documents. It was a joined (?) MBIE/Vector report, which I’m still trying to track down.
         • WeTheBleeple 8.1.1.2.1

           4 August 2021 at 10:22 pm

           Seems about enough to run an alarm system 24/7. Maybe?

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