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6:00 am, March 5th, 2021 - 87 comments
Categories: open mike -
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<blockquote>
“…These industries have successfully stalled public health policies for far too long in this country because they have deep pockets, powerful lobbying influence over government and very few scruples. I hope that uncovering these connections between big money, underhand PR and defamatory blogs is a wake-up call and we can begin to see better public health policies from Government.”
Professor Swinburn
https://www.healthcoalition.org.nz/dirty-pr-exposed-in-whale-oil-defamation-trial/
</blockquote>
Today is the day
The incubation period for Covid-19 is 14 days
In the struggle between the team of 5 million and the team of 500 over public health who will win?
If the latest outbreak has not been proven to be contained;
Will the government be able to resist the 'deep pockets', 'powerful lobbying influence' over government and 'very few scruples' of the team of 500 and lift the lockdown before the incubation period is over?
[TheStandard: A moderator moved this comment to Open Mike as being off topic or irrelevant in the post it was made in. Be more careful in future.]
Hang in there East Cape.
Waiting for a press release from Simon Bridges complaining there were too many woke people in Gisborne at 2.30am.
We woke up in Rotorua, the house shook for a minute or so. And who cares about Simon, the poor boy would have gotten a tsunami warning/evac order with all the others living in that area.
Or that evacuating towns is bad for 'the economy'?
Very good, I am going to use that today.
Now an undisclosed boarder at one of the residences involved in the current outbreak, no wonder Jacinda and the rest of Government is seething. I really don’t want hear about anymore sympathy for the cohort involved in this, there has been too many lies and deflections and bullshit and deliberately putting large numbers of others at risk simply because of arseholery.
And don’t pull the “ language difficulties” deflection either, I’m pretty sure you can’t study at MIT or work at Macs orKFC if you only understand Elvish or Klingon !
[Fixed typo in user name]
Trial by media is not the best approach.
Despite them being requested to not play the blame game off they go regardless of the impact this could have on those concerned.
Cue the 'public interest' line from the MSM which's total BS.
I'd imagine those involved will be coping it for sometime to come from those around them without our celebrity clickbait bachlorette boats on foils MSM weighing in.
It is, for the media.
Sometimes helpful sometimes not helpful.
Yes, the country demands a sacrifice, a human one……so lets burn this Family.
where would you like that to be – middle of Aotea Square? Or Maybe somewhere in South Auckland?
And the Tamaki Grifters, would you want them to be sacrificed too for breaching Level 3 lockd down orders?
And that Aucklander that flew to Queenstown just to be taken straight to a hospital with flue like symptoms? Should he to be burned?
And overcrowding and not fully admitting to it lest you lose a rental or a Winz benefit in the area of NO AFFORDABLE Housing and political bullshittery around that is something that is to be expected. Cause we know that couch surfing, sleeping and living in Garages etc is fairly common in lower income areas. \
Seriously, this demand for blood is getting tiresome.
Yes this is known and appreciated. It does not excuse in any way the apparent non disclosure of the fact that he was boarding with the family.
i don't excuse it, but in saying that, the government knows about overcrowding, so should also include this in their 'what if ' scenarios.
And if they don't then this will repeat itself again and again and again, until the polite society of this country understand that low class income areas don't behave like the well to do society of Parnell or Ponsonby or various Government quaters in Wellington.
So while the family is not to be excused, as i said yesterday, the government also needs to pull its head in and start admitting that their one size fits all does not fit all.
Sabine, there has to be a boundary set.
If NZ will have to go into total lockdown, with catastrophic economic consequences affecting the very same poor you seem to defend for their stupidity and their "up yours" attitude, the majority of these "we need to understand and give them some space, be kind" brigade will change their mind very quickly. Because another lockdown could well mean that this is managed with food rationing, firmer quarantine etc. The rich will just charter a plane to a remote Island but he average kiwi will be angry because we were so "understanding".
Yeah government – pull yer heid in. Now I feel better (Tui).
While the NZ government is short on time and resources to fix overcrowding, their supposed "one size fits all" response to this global pandemic has been a spectacular success, at least when compared to most other countries.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-resilience-ranking/
Tales of how our government has and continues to egregiously fail NZ citizens will ramp up – the MSM, and some Kiwis simply can't admit/believe that for a small country with limited resources, NZ has navigated the COVID threat very well, so far.
And there’s always room for improvement, of course.
We are one year in this Covid mess, not at the beginning.
As i have said last year, the easiest part was going into lockdown 4 – paid an all – as people were scared of the shitshows overseas etc.
The hardest thing is coming out of it, and maintaining the status quo. And that would be now.
So yes, blame is to be put on the individuals who for what ever reason did not do the right thing, and blame is to be put on the Government to not have included overcrowding, fear of losing income'/benefit, literacy issues, and good old anti government stances of those that live these lives. Fear of government when one depends on Winz, is actually a thing. Fear of losing a benefit or a rental also.
The shoe that worked last year is now well and truly worn out and we need to update our processes, procedures and so on.
And we can honestly admit that the govenrment does not fail all citizens, but it does and for the longest time has failed those that live poor and overcrowded or in cars. And that we have ample of proof and write ups for.
South Auckland was always going to be a worry for all the issues. And that is something that can not be washed away with outcrys of outrage at some poor sobs while we don't seem to have the same sense of outrage at those that leave town to go to the batches, or like Tamaki go on collection tour up and down NZ, or those that escape a plague hotel to get beersies and pies.
Poverty, fear of government, poor rentals, overcrowding, low education standards, poor reasoning etc make for a potentially dangerous mix.
And yet, we still don't know how the first person of that cluster got infected, and where.
The current surfeit of "outcrys of outrage" is cause for concern – it's easy to see how a sense of outrage might fuel an already "potentially dangerous mix", so it behoves us all to keep calm and try to calm things down, imho.
But no news cases of COVID today, either in the community or in managed isolation, so that’s good news.
Hindsight allows us to look at a situation or an event after it has happened.
The positive cases have all come from within the high school. Had the high school students and teachers gone into a 14 day bubble with everyone in their household the situation would have been different.
It was always going to be confusing and a greater risk to the community for one member of the household to be a casual plus contact and the other members to go about their daily routine. Not having a bubble for 14 days and then splitting a classification in a household has come back hard.
Nonsense! The compliance rate was very high among the high school students and the community at large.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/03/covid-19-live-updates-latest-on-auckland-community-outbreak-wednesday-march-3.html
So 33 had not been tested?
I didn’t count them. Did you?
Compliance with testing in the first round of testing is one thing. Containing further community outbreak is another. The high school remained shut for a week and retesting was required think prior to current level 3 lockdown.
Unknown source for case A and all sources of infection in a household had a school contact.
Responsibility was taken by all who got tested twice. A great effort.
The school was not the problem. It was the actions of a couple of individuals. You claim a 14 day bubble would have made a difference. I beg to differ. You want to penalise the large majority that complied by the rules for the actions of a few. That’s just silly and will backfire in the long run.
It is not about penalising those who did the first round of Covid tests or the second round of Covid tests. It is what the science said about the first round of tests.
If the first round of Covid tests were enough the second round of Covid tests for the casual plus classifications would not have been required.
Even if there was no breach under the first level 3 lockdown I do not think there was enough certainty that the first round of Covid tests could eliminate a positive case turning up before day 14.
As it is the high school has had disruption of education for 3 weeks.
Maybe making sure students have an internet connection is the productive way to go when the situation is not clear.
Could you put a link up re this boarder please.
Found it but my computer playing up and cannot link. While the family did not disclose his existence he himself advised his employer, Chorus, who notified the authorities. He is self isolating at the place he boards. He is a door to door salesperson for Chorus. One negative test so far and hopefully another will follow. Mind boggling if the person had been positive.
I was awake before the earthquake struck. It was a long rolling one. Pleased it did not gather more momentum.
There were three total earthquakes, and there is now a full evacuation order for downtown Whangarai, and the East coast from Matata to Tologa Bay, and Great Barrier Island.
All of this can be found on the NZ Herald Live blog.
I needed to be specific the 2.30 am one. As for the other two they were not felt.
OK so warning this is a longer read.
But for those who like absorbing patterns of climate and human interaction with them over millennia, the long historical analogues are pretty intense:
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2021/03/extreme-climate-change-history/617793/
Thanks (I think!) Ad – brilliantly written and enormously sobering. He ends encouragingly (?) but he certainly turns up the temperature on the issue. What a film that would make!
The language difficulties for some in south Auckland are understandable to a degree but given people have to organise a bank account and operate it, organise a power supplier and pay the bill, go to a job, and deal with all sorts of other day to day necessities, language surely can't be an insurmountable issue. If in doubt, ask someone be it a neighbour, friend, relative.
If there is a God then she has a wicked sense of humour, where do those poor Covid refugees from Auckland go to now that their beach houses are uninhabitable.
[Fixed same typo in user name again]
[Fixed same typo in user name again]
you mean people that intentionally break Lockdown 3 rules, rather then 'refugees'?
That word implies that they must leave town because ……not that they are running away from not being able to eat out, go to the gym and have standard normal fun?
Wonder if Billy TK is evacuating or he thinks Tsunamis are a hoax.
Tin foil hats are a good protection against 5G and 8.1 M earth quakes.
No need for a tinfoil hat for
5G
when you can get a pill from
Jami-Lee:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/124069747/jamilee-ross-behind-anti5g-supplement-business
Where I live, there are bouts of 3G-indigestion with the occasional sharp stabbing 4G-migraine. I’ll die of old age before 5G-cancer kills me. JLR can stick those pills up his arms.
Did Jami-Lee's partner in scam tickle any memory cells? Michael Kelly?
TBH, I had not read the link and still don’t intend to.
Yes, that commenter rings a bell. Turns out I banned him permanently in June last year for falsely claiming that Jacinda Ardern was (going to) pursue a “Forced Vaccination Agenda”. The ban was subsequently challenged in the back-end because it was seen as stifling debate on vaccination, which is an important topic; it was never followed up though. Looking back at it now, I’m happy I let the ban stand 🙂
Kelly's efforts here certainly appeared to be more of an attempt to set the stage for a sales effort than any kind of good faith attempt to debate.
The stuff link is really only entertainment value, for those that get amused by reading about what fantasies get spun by hucksters trying to fleece the gullible.
Indeed, I thought Kelly was trying to hijack the vaccine debate here on TS, which is why I banned him, not because of his views or opinions.
To me, the link looks like click bait and the best way to handle that is not to click on it 😉
And will Des Gorman pop up and claim that the tsunami is a 'border failure' of stupendous proportions, the government has been 'caught with its pants down' and there should have been a plan to stop it?
Imagine if you fled level 3 Auckland in your Audi for your low lying coastal bach….
God just told you to literally get in the sea.
He knows, foreshore, they're created by HAARP.
I haven't seen comment on National's idea of paying people directly for covid lock down subsidies. Has it been discussed on The Standard or elsewhere? I can see horrendous setup problems at a time when the public sector is working very hard on other covid issues, and the opportunity for a lot of individual mistakes, and ultimately the government being painted as seeking personal information for other (nefarious) purposes. Like most ideas from Collins, it deserves what it appears to have received – not even much media coverage.
Interesting Guardian article on a a UBI experiment in Stockton, California. It's not a large study (125 below-median wage people) and the unconditional payment was not large (USD$500/month). But the results predictably confound a couple of the standard objections to UBI: full-time employment among the target group actually went up, not down; and the money was spent on food, transport and utility bills – not booze. Even more predictably, debt was repaid, mental health improved and stress reduced.
I know there are legitimate 'left' criticisms of UBI – such as Tory-proofing it (as Weka says) so that it's not pegged back to subsistence levels and actually disadvantages groups with additional needs. Plus the larger issue of it being potentially disempowering and isolating. But it's an interesting result all the same.
Yes, i linked to it on the Daily Review. It would do those that live below the poverty line a world of good if they could get a payment of 500 a month without strings. Yet, we have strings attached to people who have lost their jobs. Go figure. We know that cash payments help. We just don't want to do it. We = society = parliament
edit: we can’t ‘tory’ proof anything really unless we make it so. I.e. the heating payment is one of these things. Once the tories get in, i can see this payment being axed as one of the first actions. Hence the argument to increase the base benefits substantially so that people might not need these seasonal and Tory unproof top ups.
Too many vested interests, but there is no veto on 16 billion of which quite a few companies and their shareholders should have but did not pay the money back. If nothing else, this alone must be a warning where the powers to be sitting morally.
I am all for the UBI given that automation and concentration of industries about to hit the labor market hard. Since any economic setting is a construct and not a natural phenomenon it can be changed. Wishful thinking but I feel that the money horders are amoral to the core and this idea will stay a pipe dream.
I know there are legitimate 'left' criticisms of UBI – such as Tory-proofing it (as Weka says) so that it's not pegged back to subsistence levels and actually disadvantages groups with additional needs.
We already have a 'Tory-proof' UBI – NZ Super for everyone over 65. Once a UBI was in place it would, like all other govt concerns be subject to the usual push and pull of the political landscape. There is nothing unusual in this – but over the past 3 decades we've seen successive govts hold conventional benefits too low for several simple 'non-political' reasons – that if they increased them too much the gap between minimum wage incomes and benefits would become too small, and the marginal tax abatement rates necessary would become even more onerous. (There is a whole lot more to be said on this, but that's the short version.)
Because however we've known nothing else but the the conventional benefit system, we tend to discount it's numerous built-in downsides.
Plus the larger issue of it being potentially disempowering and isolating.
Honestly I'm puzzled by this. In my view a UBI, by eradicating the inevitable social stigmas associated with conventional welfare, would have the exact opposite effect.
As for the report itself – absolutely non-surprising. I’ve been reading about similar positive outcomes wherever a UBI type scheme is implemented for over a decade now. Why the hell the left just can’t unite behind this baffles me.
Well then, ask the right why they don't go for it, if it is the failure of the left to deliver this.
And again, i would like to remind you that our moderate conservative kind of progressive PM has ruled out benefit increases. Unless you want to call JA, RG and the other suits – radical left. Oh, and htey have a majority so they don't even need any support from radicals or non radicals.
Or is blaming a fictional 'radical left' easier then asking the government to do what is the right thing to do?
if it is the failure of the left to deliver this.
Yes I agree with you, the left has been way too timid on this. To be fair a UBI would be a dramatic reform and any govt would consume a great deal of political capital getting it over the line. And until this past few post-COVD months there has never been a Labour govt in a strong enough position to do this.
But the ground has shifted – it's my sense that NZ right now would be more receptive to the idea than at any time in my life.
Perhaps the most pernicious effect of our conventional targeted benefit welfare (and the one that personally first clued me into the whole idea of a UBI over 20 yrs ago) is what happens when you try to transition off a benefit. The higher benefits are set, the more aggressively the system must abate them.
This creates very high marginal tax rates (often >80%) and is a huge disincentive. It's a large component of what's usually called the poverty trap.
By contrast a UBI system typically has flat (or close to flat) marginal tax rates – which means that the extra hours a family in this example worked would be of direct value to them, creating the opportunity to move out of the relative poverty and stress they're often in.
At present the system we have in NZ does the exact opposite – trapping families into an abusive cycle of precarious, casualised short term work, typically with periods on and off benefits. And very quickly they realise that whether they're working this week or not, it makes very little difference to them in the long run.
I don't think this quote makes the actual case you confer from it.
From the example, say a policy is adoped where $12000 anually is paid as a UBI (per household). Say also the mode of household income is initially $36000 p.a This shifts the whole income distribution up by that amount, which still leaves them at $36000 vs the new $48000 mode after every household receives the UBI. This makes the impacts a question of how the cost of living adjusts to this new income level, if that makes the household better, similarly or worse off. They are still relatively $12,000 poorer than the modal income however.
In contrast a $12000 targeted income boost does reduce this households relative poverty. It also creates what is described as a welfare trap where because of abatement rates there is little extra income earned for additional hours of work.
I think that makes it a question of what is the worse harm, relative poverty or welfare traps. It can also be considered what abatement rates should be applied.
Of course contrasting a UBI to 90s welfare reforms they work in different directions of income adjustment. Maybe a case can be made that boosting rather than cutting is more socially responsible policy reform. But in terms of effects I think the 90s reforms lack of payoff highlighted that welfare traps are not very harmful. That also seems to align with the study showing people were not disincentivised (were more likely to end up in work) to work by an income boost.
You've missed the important role that effective marginal tax rates are having here.
With a targeted benefit very high marginal tax rates are hard to avoid unless you keep the benefits low compared to minimum wages; whereas it's trivial to design a UBI/Flat Tax that has a constant flat marginal rate across the entire income band if that's what you want.
My understanding is that benefits and wage income are taxed at the same rates?
That doesn't seem to imply high benefit rates need be coupled with high marginal tax rates in any way. The UK seems to have an untaxed £10K band and I see no reason NZ could not do this as an separate policy change too.
While I understand, a negative income tax band coupled with a flat tax band, can be described as a progressive income tax regime. I would still say its significantly less progressive than our present 4/5 band income tax regime.
Your last paragraph is what I've always advocated for, a UBI that can be best thought of as a negative tax band combined with a flat PAYE tax. The numbers I've often used in the past were a UBI of $10kpa and a flat tax rate of 33%.
There is however no particular reason why these numbers should be used, I only chose them because they made giving examples at various income levels easy. Updating to 2021 I'd probably advocate for a UBI of $15kpa and say 3 tax bands ranging from 25% up to 45%.
Plus a CCT/Asset tax and a FTT.
The important point is that a UBI cannot be properly described without understanding the wider tax system that it is innately part of. Yet for all of these interesting technical ins an outs, it's the universal nature of a UBI that I firmly believe is it's most fundamental social virtue.
All well and good, however I don't see how that impacts what I said in 11.2.1.1.1 in any way. I was at the time thinking of all figures in after tax terms actually. I don't understand how giving everybody $12,000 p.a UBI reduces relative poverty. While targeting the income to those in relative poverty does this.
Agreed – the evidence suggests that the benefits are such that the objections are either overblown or need to be managed.
Couple of live streams.
https://whk-bar.click2stream.com/
http://ohopesurfcam.co.nz/
Of Trump playing golf with Clinton and Putin?
Have just finished watching Minister Kiritapu Allan presenting the press conference on the after effects of the earthquakes. An impressive performance with a very good ability to grasp and present the issues at hand.
Yes we all commented here on how well she spoke and that all 3 fronting interacted and performed as a team.
Perhaps the next cabinet reshuffle, those that are performing as min Kiritapu Allen will be recognised and those that have been found out are placed in positions that better suit their current abilities and performances.
It would be so much more helpful if you include a link, especially when it relates to an emergency alert.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/437703/tsunami-threat-to-new-zealand-constantly-evolving-allan
Here's a woman that obviously thinks Level 3 does not apply to her or her children.
Covid 19 coronavirus: Mother and Kids flouting lockdown at playground berates police at Browns Bay – NZ Herald
Kudos to the police for how they handled this. I know that we understand the utility of being kind right now – hope that Granny Herald understands too.
In the absence of a vaccine, it looks like someone has been swallowing fistfuls of magamoron
Despite earlier widespread doubts that a COVID-19 vaccine would even be possible, it's MAGA-type viruses (Destiny, Plan B, etc.) that will prove most difficult to treat.
Needs the FIZA jab – For idiot zombie arseholes.
Bedtime story for our kids is self selecting tonight … the boy who cried wolf.
The damned entitlement of jerks who think that the cops have to show you the specific law they will arrest you for before they put the cuffs on you. Worse that she likely would still have gotten away with it even if she weren't hiding behind her kids.
Cutting the tape is wilful damage, and she had failure to give details in the clip.
Dunno, I think being able to ask the cops to explain themselves is a reasonable principle in a society where cops have bent the rules over time and this has disadvantaged certain parts of society. Despite her being a dick about covid.
I also think the whole intimidation thing from cops, while useful in some situations is a problem in others.
Was he standing 2m away?
There's a difference between explaining oneself and basically being called a liar unless you provide documentary evidence of the legislation one is acting under.
One is fair. The other is simply a tactic to delay and an attempt to intimidate a person just doing their job. And it also seemed to only ever be used by privileged folk caught redhanded so they go on the indignation offensive. I don't recall ever dealing with a normal student who wanted me to supply exact chapter and verse for what I was doing. And no, not a cop, but I still had the legal authority to take one or two folk to the ground until the cops did arrive (and I didn't need to quote it to the fools).
I reckon they were seriously considering arresting her – that "details" question is a preamble I've seen used by cops a couple of times. Failure to provide details is a clear grounds for arrest, much easier to bother with than a debate about what was actually going on.
But that's beside the point of this covidiot. If she's unaware why the playground is closed after a year of this shit, cops won't convince her otherwise no matter how patient they are.
They need to prosecute her. She was the one doing the intimidating. She ripped down the security tape around the playground and encouraged her kids to play there. She's a nutbar but that does not exempt her from paying a price for breaking the law and smartarse responses to a couple of police officers whose approach was exemplary.
more trouble than she's worth.
Contender for quote of the year?
This is good news – apparently the machine of ICE family detention is being rolled back:
Obviously getting pushback from the "migrant caravan" brigade now the plan is out.
Yup throw open the borders – great start. Maybe NZ should do the same?
🙄
This is not an open border policy, any more than police bail is a policy of letting criminals avoid punishment for their crimes.
OK so there's a 72hr delay at the border while you get 'rapid processing'.
Even better no bothersome MIQ!
Anyone entering the US is going into a plague zone, not out of one.
You seem to be under the impression that immigrants need to be detained while they go through the application process, and that this policy involves greencards being handed out after the most cursory background check. I suggest you ease off on the fox news.
So hypothetically what do you imagine my chances are if I turned up at the US/Mexican border without a visa, and tried to apply for US citizenship?
Or should I just send the kids on ahead?
Either way, you turn up at the border and claim entry status for whatever reason. You get held while your ID is verified, and there's an initial check to see if you're a very bad person who should be arrested or deported. If you're cool at first glance, you go to the next bit.
Then your grounds for entry are examined, e.g. refugee status or work visa. You might be denied entry and referred to proper centres to apply for entry on those grounds, at which point you are deported.
Alternatively, you could be given a court date and released into the US. Failure to appear at court makes you liable for deportation.
That's the decision that has been fast-tracked for families because imprisoning kids is bad, m'kay. They just don't spend months in prison waiting for a hearing and decision, nor are babies taken to court by themselves or stolen from their parents.
But you're cool with all that.
OK so I'll send the kids on ahead and join them later after applying for a work visa … good plan.
Given this was one of the key issues that got Unca Donald elected in the first place, pumping new life back into it, at a point in time when the US is struggling with both a pandemic and high unemployment, borders not so much with Mexico, but with insanity.
As for the children – using them as a queue jumping ticket is of course absolutely and completely the responsibility of the adults who exploit them in this manner.
I guess that sometimes the right thing can look like insanity to someone who likes to see kids in cages.
How about trotting off and decolonising maths or something?
Your comment is perfectly reasonable because opposing this is woke-ism gone mad.
It's not "queue jumping" put give accused criminals bail, and asylum seekers aren't even accused criminals. They turn up at the border in order to go through the regular process.
But you still want families locked up because… ?