Written By:
notices and features - Date published:
6:00 am, April 6th, 2023 - 78 comments
Categories: open mike -
Tags:
The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.
Looking for a different topic to get foamed-up about?
George Monbiot talks about the vital issue.
Rusty Rockets; doing for the the clicks.
https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1634090091567095810
Looks like Jonathan Cook isn't that impressed by George Monbiot.
https://jonathancook.substack.com/p/i-once-admired-george-monbiot-but
I am just going to repeat this one more time. Russell Brand is a glib grifter isn't half as clever as he sounds and even dumber than that. He needs to make a living, he's found his niche.
The guardian is part of the problem not the solution.
of course it was all caps on "Truth Social"
(locker room talk true).
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2023/04/donald-trump-facing-criminal-charges-calls-for-defunding-of-fbi.html
He should perhaps save something for the Jan 6 and Georgia phone call charges.
Despite overwhelming calls from a large number of councils and community organisations, Labour MPs decided they couldn't conscience acting to minimise alcohol harm:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/487421/swarbrick-s-alcohol-harm-minimisation-bill-fails-at-first-reading
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/the-house/audio/2018845214/local-authorities-urge-mps-to-support-alcohol-harm-minimisation-bill
It's pretty much up to the millennials, gen z's and other non aligned groups to form a party and get on with it.
Labour is a brand appealing to the diminishing centre, not upsetting the horses to keep power or simply keep the nact horror show out of power it seems now.
It is now very very hard to see Labour surviving the Election from the Reserve Bank actions this year.
It won't be fair, but rheyll be blamed for $500 a fortnight getting sucked out of family budgets.
It blows my mind that in a democracy the entire media-political establishment basically tugs it forelock to an unelected bean counter with an explicit agenda to overturn several of the economic wins of the incumbent government.
No wonder Trumpists think the deep state is nothing but a financial conspiracy by the have class against Joe and Jane Sixpack on Struggle Street.
Its entirely fair.
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/about-monetary-policy/history-of-the-remit-and-policy-targets-agreement
"The remit for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) outlines the objectives that the MPC must use monetary policy to pursue, as set by the Minister of Finance."
I think the government can be held responsible for the things they can control.
For instance, they should be putting government expenditure under the microscope to see how that is impacting on inflation, and what they can do to minimise unnecessary expenditure and waste.
Secondly, they really need to consider their settings on immigration which seem to be purposefully limited to force up wages. In Question time the other day there was this exchange:
So, the government is definitely contributing to inflation by controlling the immigration settings.
And the government really needs to consider the flow-on effects from putting up the minimum wage so rapidly. The minimum wage increase itself may impact inflation all that much. But, it does impact other wages which are pressured to maintain the differential in relation to the minimum wage.
The social equity side of the argument is well understood. But, it is the impact on inflation that needs to be acknowledged and factored into government planning.
Real wages have been declining. NZ wage rates are not significantly driving inflation.
But, inflation is why wages are declining in real terms. So, there is a continued upward spiral that wages never catch up with.
I am not arguing so much about wages increasing. But more, that, if the government wants to increase minimum wages, they should offset that by taking the knife to government expenditure sop there isn’t any more money in the system overall. Then, wages actually will have a chance to catch up with inflation.
Something a left wing government is absolutely loathed to do.
Wage growth is not driving the inflation, at best they have been catching up with inflation. Monetary policy successfully suppressing wages makes that worse rather than actually improving economic conditions in NZ. It also doesn't really help with inflation in how its implemented because as I started with wages are not driving inflation.
Government expenditure is also not driving inflation. Most of the debated stuff to cut in this policy area will not have any impact on inflation what so ever. They would however have quite negative impacts on New Zealand.
If we want to deal with actual economic impacts on New Zealand we would need a viable understanding on inflation and the idea that there is a pool of money which is multiplied across an independent pool of productive capacity resulting in an inflation rate (which is the concept your applying), this is completely bankrupt.
If we want to tackle actual inflation you need to look at a few institutional things like, why are price setters in that industry increasing their prices, what reasons do they give, and are those reasonable explanations, and how much price setting power do they have.
You might then consider looking at if there are anti-competitive aspects, if companies could be encouraged to pass on price hikes to employees (esp when that's the explanation given, but they are profiteering instead), even sometimes if the public sector is out bidding the non-government undesirably (this is how government spending can drive inflation, but its not widely happening). One of the main things to be concerned about at present would be does New Zealand need a larger domestic version of that industry.
But if you just look at government total expenditure, give it a thumb suck and say that 30% is too big, cut it, because reasons. In that case your not even looking at the issue in any meaningful way.
The economy is blind to where money comes from. It responds to the fact that there is more money in the system, whatever the source. So, if you accept wages are increasing, then this will add to inflation, as will government expenditure, etc.
More money in the system devalues the value of money. (the law of supply and demand, right?). That is what inflation essentially is.
So, any factor that increases money supply in the economy will increase inflation.
Trying to say money from one particular source is or isn't driving inflation is therefore logically incorrect.
The government needs to be responsible and acknowledge its own effects on inflation, and do what it can to get inflation under control, rather than adding fuel to the fire.
And this policy of aiming to increase wages by restricting immigration is as retarded as it gets.
Businesses aren’t paying higher wages because they are earning more money themselves. They are just facing increased costs due to an artificial intervention from the government.
Hence, no good can come from that in the long run.
No, that's all reasoning based on the fundamentally flawed concept of inflation I alluded to you using in your argument.
Inflation is some kind of continuous price increases. If its to be understood you need to look into the institutional or individual reasons for those price hikes and the ability of those actors to influence their going prices anyway.
We can already throw your concept out once we realize that those people setting prices almost never look at the clearing balances held by banks (what the government spends in and taxes back). That would be enough, but they also don't look at the deposit balances which the banks hold either. This also makes it irrelevant that deposit balances are not a consistent multiple of clearing balances anyway and that banks are independently of their deposit base able to expand their balance sheets when lending and worst case purchase clearing balances at the OCR as a matter of government policy.
Rather than thinking of money like a durable good with a quantity, you should understand it like the supply of video views on a streaming service. Its not quantity constrained and doesn't derive its value from a quantity constraint anyway.
It looks like the Reserve Bank agrees with me more than you.
From the article:
The RB thinks the problem of inflation is too much money chasing too fewer goods.
The issue is that infinite amounts of money can be created. But the goods money purchases are finite. Hence, as the quantity of money increases, the value of that money decreases against the finite goods, and prices rise.
As I said, the economy is completely blind to where that money comes from.
The RB thinks the problem of inflation is too much money chasing too fewer goods.
Rather than the results of shortages and sanctions arising from the invasion of Ukraine. Never mind, I'm sure they'll all retire on a fat sinecure irrespective of how woefully they underperform.
Sure. That amongst a myriad of things. Again, the economy is blind as to why there are shortages. The war in Ukraine is definitely one of those things contributing to shortages.
But, as stated, inflation is simply the result of too much money chasing too fewer goods, regardless of why there is too much money or too fewer goods.
An obvious example is in the cost of produce which responds very quickly to shortages. For instance, have you seen the price of Kumara lately after the flooding wiped out a lot of the crops?
We should probably have a public debate between Robertson and Orr to determine if its a cost of living crisis, or an excessive spending crisis. That would be at least entertaining though (as the RBNZ recently spoke about) with all the price hikes coming from overseas NZ has got poorer and probably should actually work that through domestically in the interests of fairness.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/rbnz-we-need-to-accept-were-poorer/ZWTC5TIBEBCZNOBGH5ZQLUOOGU/
Also you've got to be incredibly careful interpreting such official statements in specific ways. They are quite carefully worded,
"The underlying cause is usually that too much money is available to purchase too few goods and services, or that demand in the economy is outpacing supply."
Even in their terms its highlighted that there are other causes of inflation than demand driven, and when it is demand driven its about a flow of spending not a quantity of money driving pricing decisions.
Any theory of inflation is fundamentally a theory of human and institutional behavior and MV=PQ has been known to be a complete failure for quite some time, especially as several of the quantities in that equation are subjective and not quantifiable.
The reserve bank is well aware that "infinite amounts of money can be created" and its actually things like credit criteria and capital ratios (NZ has no reserve ratios) which are the actual constraints on lending.
I will grant you that various factors can cause fluctuations in the trend. But the macro factors will result in the same end being reached eventually.
For instance, if people believe prices will rise tomorrow they will often bring forward their purchases in order to avoid price rises. This psychological factor can increase demand in the short-term and thus accelerate price increases. But, in the end, this effect will level off.
Conversely, people will often hold off making purchases if they believe prices will drop tomorrow because they want to take advantage of the cheaper prices in the future, thus accelerating price drops in the short-term.
This is one of the psychological factors the RB is relying on at the moment to dampen demand.
on the 22nd March i posted that i thought Sturgeons resigning in Scotland had a lot to do with her husband being involved in very shady dealings involving money, donations, party funds etc.
I was told that that was 'far fetched' https://thestandard.org.nz/sturgeon-like-ardern-a-casualty-of-online-abuse/#comment-1936272
lol……..today
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-65187823
sometimes people really are as shitty as they appear. And Mr. Sturgeon was not a nice person.
Yep. You were right.
Many were just waiting for the official announcement.
It has been in the news (the one that dared to report on it) for a while now but i guess "hard done by, bigottry, anti 'self identifying women hate' and thus resignation" sounds better then the Husband of the First Minister – feminist to their fingertips – and CEO of SNP, is a crook.
You still got my details? I nuked the account and printed yours but i can't find the doc. Would you mind texting or calling?
Emailed a couple of times to reiterate the invitation for #LetWomenSpeak, but I couldn't attend as I was with my mother who had contracted Covid.
I'll send a text to your (partner's) mobile. Call or text anytime.
Hang on. Need to charge, will do it now.
Trans identified male please not guilty to throwing liquids on women. And no this is not a women. [deleted] oneself does not make a male a women, it makes them a [deleted]. And sadly for the world this [deleted] is a danger to women. But that is ok. What is a little violence……..if that violence is for a 'good' cause.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/300848339/woman-pleads-not-guilty-to-assault-after-throwing-juice-on-posie-parker
And even sadder still, that [deleted] would get locked up in a female prison, with women who can not consent, but then its not as if anyone gave a flying shit about women, be they in a public space or in a female prison cell.
I've deleted some words. The noun in particular is not going to be ok here. It's technically inaccurate (dictionary definition) and thus is a pejorative. I don't know if it even applies to the person.
This debate is going to be long and intense, so there need to be some limits on inflammatory language. In the policy we encourage robust debate (thus there is no problem with being angry, or making strong political arguments like you just did), and we have limits on language or tone that will put others off from commenting, or contribute to flame wars.
Thanks Sabine
I note that the lawyer has already made a start with the usual t**pe
“We must also protect the right to protest against those who espouse hate and discrimination … Hate speech emboldens others to use violence against those in our trans community, a community already targeted and at risk'
Hopefully the Judge will read the judgements on what constitutes hate speech in the SUFW case and is not convinced.
The anti women's issues, anti free speech protestors were not a mass Robin Hood like protest to fight back the baddies.
It involved a gross misreading of what the women were going to discuss and the use of force against ideas (sounds like the Dark Ages?)
.
For context of the "We must also protect the right to protest against those who espouse hate and discrimination … Hate speech emboldens others to use violence against those in our trans community, a community already targeted and at risk'" – some women spoke on Waiheke Island last weekend.
Viewers can determine for themselves the level of epousing of hate and discrimination:
https://www.youtube.com/live/pgW3zQ–HSk?feature=share
Everything you need to know about why transing kids is a bad idea.
"This essay is an attempt to share with you what I’ve learned. Something has gone very wrong in our attempt to help these young people, so much so that too many have been badly harmed—and I hope to explain why. (If you prefer videos, you can watch this excellent documentary, one of many).
https://genspect.org/to-help-trans-identifying-kids-follow-the-science/?fbclid=IwAR2oehH9An_xD73OOkw2t-iEgfzqI5c7wkdPC4p1GrRb155zP8x4Wm2hBs4
Skewed data lead to skewed conclusions & decisions.
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/census-turnout-low-despite-37m-blowout
I fear the turnout at the General Election might be quite low too. The lower voter turnout, the less representative the overall result.
I read an article recently, which commented that a large swathe of left-wing Kiwis would simply stay home in November, rather than vote.
They can't support major policies for either the Greens or Labour – but can't stomach voting for National or Act.
[Sorry, I've had a look, but can't track it down again]
Would be good to see if that article was based on reason, reckon, or wishful thinking.
Election Day is 14 October, so people are ok to stay home in November.
Well, it can only be based on speculation at this stage.
Apologies for the misdating of the election….
I’d hope it would be somewhere in between being absolutely random & unpredictable (stochastic, flick of a coin) and absolute certainty (birth, death, and taxes). Of course, there’s always an element of speculation, especially in politics. However, polls, surveys, and sound research can help being a little more accurate and a little less speculative.
Found it, better late than never.
Chris Trotter, and re-reading it, he doesn't give any source for his data – so anecdata and/or speculation.
I wouldn't ascribe it to 'wishful thinking' (I can't see any reason he'd want to see a National/ACT government) – so 'reckon' is probably the closest.
https://bowalleyroad.blogspot.com/2023/04/sitting-this-one-out-how-angry.html
Also based on anecdata – but older leftist women in my family – staunch feminists and lifelong Labour voters – are going noticeably quiet on the political front (usually, you can't shut them up (joke)). It's as though they can't support some of these policies, but also can't bring themselves to be disloyal and say so.
Ta
The Green party seems to be planning to destroy itself.
This is excellent because members are about to vote on list rankings 😈 I’d be happy with EK out of parliament (doubt that will happen but dropping her dues the list might teach her something).
She certainly seems someone whose ambition and entitlement exceeds her talents.
very awkward – not a good few weeks for the left in the foot in mouth department
who leaked it to the media?
Otoh if EK’s Bill got selected, we’d have a sex/gender wars election instead of a climate election, and I doubt the Greens would come out of that well.
https://twitter.com/pen_ultimate__/status/1643803910489112579
Weka, having read the bill in full I noted that it leaves sections 43, 46 and 49 (which protect single sex facilities and sport) as they are. Not sure if this is intentional or an oversight by Dr Kerekere, but either way it makes the bill considerably less controversial than it would otherwise be.
More "assigned sex at birth" bulldust. And no idea of what the "self identified gender expression" actually means apart from "whatever I say it is". Plus the obligatory "rainbow washing" and inclusion of medical conditions.
Gender ideology at its most obvious.
It's like a new religion.
And, Good Lord!, talking about doubling down.
When caught, she sent a generic – 'this message was inappropriate for this chat' apology; rather than acknowledging that the message was inappropriate for any forum she should be engaging in as an MP.
Then flat-out lied to RNZ – “I didn’t call Chlöe a crybaby, and I don’t think I can comment on it, but I didn’t call her that" – her words on the actual chat leaked to journalists were “omg what a crybaby”
It's difficult to see what sanctions Shaw and Davidson can apply. EK appears to only be sorry about being caught, not for her actions.
A “full internal investigation” should include all comms that EK has sent during her time as an MP. This is unlikely to be an isolated incident.
Will this (egregious example of disloyalty behind a colleague's back) be important enough to the Greens, for the Party membership to 'reward' her with a low list placing?
Only time will tell.
It can be argued Kerekere is following her leader's example. When Davidson had her post Parker outburst she refused to apologise.
Kinda rank hypocricy for Davidson to get too uppitty about this.
The unwillingness to apologise (because you think you are right) is the same – but the target is different.
Davidson's was a demographic that she's always had little time for; Kerekere was attacking her colleague (who she's supposed to support under the Greens kaupapa).
From a party perspective, Kerekere is by far the greater 'sinner'.
Both stupid. Both myopic (not seeing how this will play to the larger audience). . Both, ultimately, self-defeating.
more than 'self defeating'…party damaging (both)
Labour can hardly complain about Green stability after needlessly losing a PM, firing the moronic Nash, and the dorky Kiri Allen at RNZ.
I think difference is though that Labour has maintained it's internal discipline. This points to a factional internal party squabble – traditionally lethal to your electoral chances in NZ.
It would be more preferable if our political economy – of which we are part – had the maturity for more actual live debate from all parties.
The UK and US main parties manage to achieve it without the world falling apart.
I agree with you. However, this from Kerekere isn't debate, but backbiting – and not about Swarbrick's political views, but about internal ranking chances in the GP. Not attractive.
This silly and spurious "crybaby" story is the headline in both Stuff and the Herald today. It will form part of a large number of coordinated attacks by the Right on Swarbrick before the election in order to dent her credibility as well as that of the Greens.
What's "spurious" about it?
Agree that it was a very silly thing for Kerekere to do.
But, I doubt that Swarbrick's credibility will be dented.
Spurious-"Not being what it purports to be, false, fake."
It is a non-story (false, fake) that the MSM has elevated to the level of a major issue with large front page banner headlines in both of the two major media outlets in NZ in order to attack both the Greens and Chloe.
As Chloe says today, she has "been called much worse" [I would suggest many times] and has refused to give the non-story any more oxygen by refusing further comment. Well played her.
How is it fake. Kerekere sent the text (then lied about it to a journalist).
I think we can all believe that the MSM didn't make this story up.
Surely the poor judgement and untrustworthiness of a politician and senior list candidate on the GP list – is a significant news story.
Every report I've read has been highly critical of Kerekere – and neutral-to-supportive to Swarbrick. EK comes out as someone with the political instincts of an amoeba, and the trustworthiness of a piranha; CK comes out as a politician doing her job, and rising above petty insults. It's not the insult that's the issue, it's the fact that it came from someone who is supposed to be a colleague.
I can't see any way that Swarbrick has been 'attacked' by the MSM. And, the GP leaders, coming out quickly to announce an investigation, and tell Kerekere not to come to work the next day – makes them look on-to-it and effective.
So, a bad news story for EK; a medium-to-good news story for CS and the GP.
You don't see the bold front page headline* "fellow Green MP calls Swarbrick a "crybaby"" as an attack on Chloe and the Greens?
With respect you are being naive. This is how the anti-left MSM works. It vastly exaggerates a very minor issue** that reflects badly on the Left/Greens and then keeps the story alive as long as possible.
*I forget the exact wording
** I think KK has already apologised?
But I agree with you that KK has not come out of this well, though I repeat it is a minor issue/transgression.
So, you're now accepting that the story isn't 'fake' (it really did happen).
And just objecting to how it's been presented.
The fact that the GP are investigating, indicates that they're taking it seriously – i.e. not just a "minor issue" – even if you are not.
I think that we'll just agree to differ on just who comes out badly from this.
If Kerekere has already apologized to Swarbrick or the GP, then it has yet to be released.
The only reported apology was:
"Kia ora everyone. I wrote an inappropriate message on here which was not meant for this thread and I apologise to everyone here"
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/487463/green-mp-elizabeth-kerekere-calls-chloe-swarbrick-a-crybaby-in-group-chat
That's the apology you make when you accidentally send your work colleagues the plans for the family BBQ. Not the apology you make when you're caught making a nasty comment about a colleague.
And, with respect, you are being naive, if you think that MSM are magically not going to report poor behaviour from any MP – regardless of which party s/he belongs to.
Incognito has it right in the post below.
Yup, another NZ MSM media beat-up for cheap & easy clicks that shows again how lazy (some) MSM have become. Content is no longer King, which is why chatbots will soon write most of the stuff and the public won’t even care because it sounds so ‘plausible’ (and because it can’t tell the difference).
If MSM want to stay relevant then they should stop acting like SM and start doing a proper job.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/131690407/social-media-may-be-a-political-battlefield-but-does-it-change-voters-minds
What a farce. I've lost faith in the Green Party this year, but Chloe is a politician for whom I still have considerable respect. Her Alcohol Harm bill was an attempt to do something practically useful for the community rather than just navel gazing.
Could Chloe join TOP?
That would make me very happy. I think it would be a much better fit for her but she is so in deep with the Greens at this point it would be a big ask to make a clean break without damaging her reputation. If she took over as TOP leader it might just be the name recognition needed to get them over the 5% hump. She does seem to be consistently getting around 5% as preferred PM, indicating support for her personally as opposed to the Greens.
Her reputation is being damaged already by association with her Green Party colleagues' activities in the past few weeks….and her tweet after Albert Park.
Did you not see her performance on morning tele with Brooke Van Helden?
It was self sabotaging of her reputation from my view.
https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/03/27/mps-weigh-in-on-free-speech-debate-following-posie-parker-protests/
Agree Ed. I thought her blindly loyal defence of that Albert Park shambles was the first major misstep I have seen from her. There will undoubtedly be another if she continues to hitch her raft to the current Green crew. If she's ever going to cut herself loose now seems like as good a time as any.
Only if she goes blue in the face.
Did you vote Green at the last election Leighton?
Fucking ridiculous, the greens get agitated by on mp saying something vaguely petty about their golden girl, but are allgood with their number one place holder being a racist,
Fuck the greens they've had my vote 3 times they won't get it again till they sort their shit.
https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/04/06/wrong-chat-green-mp-kerekere-calls-chloe-swarbrick-a-crybaby/
surely the Greens have lost all credibility now?
By no means all – there are many good environmentalists and soft technology engineers among them still. But they have cuckoos among the leadership, grown fat, and trying to force their more honorable siblings out.
Anyone want to bet Parkers RMA replacement is dead with the Chief Justice and Commissioner for the Environment going to the select committee and lobbying very hard against it?
Quite a move by Chief Justice Winkelmann
Isn't this a really unusual step for the Chief Justice?
My (non-legal) understanding is that she's basically saying it's so unclear and badly drafted, that there will be decades of legal cases to clarify the intent.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300842078/three-strikes-against-david-parkers-rma-reforms
Yes it's a knifing eyes front.
"there will be decades of legal cases to clarify the intent".
That is exactly what happened with the RMA, and that was introduced by a National government in 1990.
My understanding is (and I have considerable experience in working with the parts of the RMA that relate to rural subdivision and development) that the existing RMA related case law will still be relevant and have weight.
The Parker proposals are partially derived from the RMA. If something similar to the existing RMA Sections 5, 6 and 7 are carried forward much case law will remain relevant.
This is completely different to 1990 when the RMA represented a radical change in planning direction.
I find it hard to believe that Parker, who has a law degree and is a policy wonk, would have stuffed up this process. The Chief Justice's intervention may be, in part, a political reaction.