Open mike 09/04/2023

157 comments on “Open mike 09/04/2023 ”

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1. Nic the NZer 1

   9 April 2023 at 9:07 am

   https://billmitchell.org/blog/?p=60756

   Review of Central Banks recent monetary policies. Mostly similar to NZ policies, but inflation many are now changing position as its recognised that inflation is falling faster than anticipated and their economy may be in a self inflicted recession.

   In relation to a recent thread with @tsmithfield, as I said at the time the RBNZ wording already indicates they implicate spending (not money supply size) for inflation, but the description here fills out more of the details regarding why QE does not work by increasing the money supply either. Its also stated quite clearly "there is no link between QE and recent inflation outturns."
2. Francesca 2

   9 April 2023 at 9:20 am

   Goodness me.That supernatural Putin has even managed to compel the Bank of America

   to adopt his talking points.

   https://www-ft-com.ezp.lib.cam.ac.uk/content/119a620c-bf47-4b2f-90a7-5473828c8b16
3. Blade 3

   9 April 2023 at 9:35 am

   Seems YouTube is the place for ex CIA operatives. Either that, or leaving the agency and returning the next day with a new role as a private sector contractor on a huge pay increase.

   In this clip a former CIA agent rates some of the world's intelligence agencies. Apparently Mossad are the most ruthless. Nothing is off the table. The French are world leaders regarding certain intelligence gathering capabilities (?). The CIA leads the world with technology and methodologies. And China… well, they have the most reach of any agency because every expat Chinese person is a potential Chinese state asset. China has one agency that is integrated with Chinese culture. As Andrew Bustamante says'' Chinese expats still see themselves as Chinese. Westerners see themselves as expats.'' We have seen examples of that in New Zealand. The New Citizen Party was at the time said to have pledged their allegiance to the mother land. In decades past New Zealanders were very suspicious of Asians. We treated some badly. Now that we need NZers to be more discerning regarding Chinese we have wokedom and a free trade deal standing in the way. The Chinese government must be laughing in private. They even have Western culture working as an asset.

   https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Citizen_Party

   Meanwhile, China continues their efforts to sideline the US dollar.

   https://schiffgold.com/key-gold-news/china-brazil-trade-deal-ditches-the-dollar/#:~:text=Last%20week%2C%20China%20and%20Brazil,of%20first%20converting%20to%20dollars.

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1NKdOvo97k
4. adam 4

   9 April 2023 at 10:27 am

   So we the sheep, let blackrock take over kiwi saver by stealth, and sink it's teeth into other parts of our economy.

   Whilst our comrades in France show how to have a spine.

   You remember one of those, where you actually have principles you stand on like protecting the poor, and sick. But who needs economic freedom when we have identity politics right?

   Go the French – a spine for us all.

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqki_HI1ZRY
   • Tiger Mountain 4.1

     9 April 2023 at 11:09 am

     
   • Peter 4.2

     9 April 2023 at 11:42 am

     A spine for us all? In terms of retirement age and superannuation and what's happening in France?

     Muldoon said "Reds under the bed" and we quailed. And our super was stuffed forever.

     And from that time the spineless ones, who wallowed in the fear Muldoon spread and genuflected at his 'strength' told me they've got the answers to how super schemes should be.
   • SPC 4.3

     9 April 2023 at 11:46 am

     The Chinese are set to raise their retirement age

     Currently 60 for men to 65 (but slowly). The age for women (55 for while collar and 50 for blue collar is also set to rise but more quickly) to also to go to age 65 c2055.

     https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1012217

     ASB hiring BlackRock to manage some fund money is just outsourcing jobs (the exec version of offshore call centres).
     • adam 4.3.1

       9 April 2023 at 4:48 pm

       We don't have the same demographic problems as China, SPC. So that would be a false equivalence? Apples to lemons.

       ASB hiring BlackRock to manage some fund money is just outsourcing jobs (the exec version of offshore call centres).

       Mansplaining the liberal economics of it all, how very droll.
       • SPC 4.3.1.1

         9 April 2023 at 5:27 pm

         We don't have the same demographic problems

         We sort of do – we have all these migrant workers because of our demographics (domestic population growth not being sufficient), to afford our super scheme we need more working taxpayers.

         (and of course age 60 to age 65 during the 1990’s).
   • Ad 4.4

     9 April 2023 at 3:37 pm

     Blackrock is more trustworthy than most governments. I know it's weird but they behave in far longer governance cycles than a mere 3 year term.

     Personally I was more annoyed by Kiwibank selling off its own Kiwisaver fund to Fisher Funds.

     New Zealand's private superannuation savings needs to have risk allocated by the private sector to actually make us want to save. We are really, really rubbish at it otherwise and have been for multiple decades.
     • adam 4.4.1

       9 April 2023 at 4:42 pm

       Sorry Ad, The corporate scum are the problem, no matter what face they wear. Nash was a good little corporate lick spittle, The act party is full of them and the Tories are not far behind. You have to feel sorry for conservatives in this country.

       Silly question Ad, do you have a love affair with liberalism as an economic system? As it reads you do, am I wrong in that?
       • Ad 4.4.1.1

         9 April 2023 at 4:58 pm

         I have a love hate relationship with our form of capitalism.

         In my first decade of existence New Zealand had exceptionally strong redistributive government with a very strong state.

         By the time I was 20 it was already pretty clear that capitalism didn't need democracy at all.

         At my most optimistic the Clark-Cullen government was best we could get to a stronger form of social democracy like we used to.

         But then … a succession of crises and little more than crisis response.

         So now, like most people, I just cope best I can.
5. Belladonna 5

   9 April 2023 at 10:39 am

   Latest Curia poll shows Labour & National neck and neck.

   Centre-right (National/ACT) are at 59% – so can't form a majority.

   TPM would hold the balance of power.

   https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/maori-party-hold-balance-of-power-in-new-poll-national-continues-to-close-in-on-labour/FBWY4I6XEJDDFKWK5QERET56CI/
   • Tony Veitch 5.1

     9 April 2023 at 10:58 am

     Lol. Luxon on negative 6%

     The great white hope is having a hard time convincing sensible people (ergo bottom feeders) that he has their interests at heart!

     Go Te Paarti Maori!
     • Blade 5.1.1

       9 April 2023 at 11:12 am

       ''The great white hope is having a hard time convincing sensible people (ergo bottom feeders) that he has their interests at heart!''

       No, he's having a hard time convincing people that the largesse of recent times can't continue, and that sooner rather than later, the economy will have to come before personal monetary handouts. I can't say I blame voters, especially if you rely on government handouts to live. The problem is the services that support these supposed ''bottom feeders'' will continue to decline.
     • Tiger Mountain 5.1.2

       9 April 2023 at 11:16 am

       Yes, Te Pāti Māori are making good progress. 70% of Māori are under 40 years of age according to co-leader Debbie Ngarewa Packer and it was the young voter turnout that saw Rawiri Waititi elected in the year of the Jacinda/COVID thank you landslide.

       Baldrick will likely fall in the end, he does not seem much suited to Parliamentary politics.
       • Alan 5.1.2.1

         9 April 2023 at 11:37 am

         Don't get too excited, 6 months of tough economic times to endure before the election.
   • Liberty Belle 5.2

     9 April 2023 at 6:48 pm

     The idea of TPM holding Labour to ransom (TPM will never go with National) in order to form a government is frightening.
     • Blade 5.2.1

       10 April 2023 at 1:21 pm

       Loosens my bowels. Yes, Labour will be held to ransom. TPM and the Greens will double team, making Labour a toothless tiger.

       On the Right, a possible NZ1 and ACT team partnership would put National in a similar situation to Labour. Given Winston and Dave really don't get on, the fireworks would be a sight to behold.
       • Belladonna 5.2.1.1

         10 April 2023 at 1:42 pm

         TBH, Winston frightens me more than the GP, TPM or ACT. For all of those 3, we have a pretty solid idea of their policies and principles, and know what direction they are likely to take over any specific issue.

         All of them have a strong party base, who would be significantly alienated over a mid-term switcheroo in policy direction [the GP may be about to find this out, with candidate ranking- over the elevation of gender politics above the ecological and social issues most important to their base]

         Peters, however, has no principles apart from what's best for Winston (remember the baubles of office). His supporters are pro-Winston, rather than any policies he may espouse – and NZF has no existance without Peters. And, he'll quite happily reverse shift – if he gets a better offer, and weasel-word his way out of it.

         He is entirely unpredictable – and therefore dangerous.
       • Liberty Belle 5.2.1.2

         10 April 2023 at 6:46 pm

         IMHO either of the left or right blocks you mention wouldn't last one term. The involvement of Peters would make them unmanageable.
     • Mac1 5.2.2

       10 April 2023 at 2:05 pm

       Holding to ransom is an exaggeration. Getting some traction, yes, as politics is about deals and compromise to obtain the best outcomes possible. Politics is the art of the possible.

       If TPM tried the ransom approach, the extortioner might find themselves facing an outraged and retribution-seeking voting public in a snap election.

       NZF tried too much on between 2017-20 and suffered total election defeat in 2020 since their hand in slowing and preventing reform was visible. The result instead was their three year demise and an absolute majority to Labour, because National and ACT were not trusted.
       • Belladonna 5.2.2.1

         10 April 2023 at 3:31 pm

         That isn't my reading of the reason for the NZF defeat in 2020.
         I'd say it was largely to do with the vast public approval of Ardern in the handling of the pandemic up to that point.

         National dropped support substantially, as did NZF; National had sufficient numbers of tribal-National voters to stave off electoral oblivion, NZF did not.

         Really, you can't regard NZF's role as a handbrake on Labour as a factor; since those Labour policies were highly likely to be unpopular with the NZF (ultimately centrist, leaning to right) voter base; indeed, a substantial percentage would have been much happier with NZF in coalition with National.

         Being a handbrake was no reason for a NZF voter to change – but Ardern's immense popularity was.

         It was, IMO, an emotional election, rather than a policy-driven one.
         • Liberty Belle 5.2.2.1.1

           10 April 2023 at 6:52 pm

           "It was, IMO, an emotional election, rather than a policy-driven one."

           I agree. Of course National's own problems contributed to the size of Labour's victory. I still believe National would have polled better in 2020 if they had stuck with Simon Bridges.
           • Belladonna 5.2.2.1.1.1

             10 April 2023 at 6:56 pm

             Maybe. Collins didn't help (deeply divisive and unlikable), nor did the flouncing off of key MPs before, during and after the Muller debacle (Bennett & Adams, in particular). But, I don't think any leader within the caucus would have done significantly better against Ardern in 2020.
6. Molly 6

   9 April 2023 at 11:06 am

   I read Newshub's article, which quotes from our version of The Ministry of Truth:

   https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/04/rise-in-disinformation-conspiracy-theories-prompts-calls-for-urgent-election-protection.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

   Unprecedented levels of disinformation will only get worse this election, but systems set up to deal with it during the pandemic have all been shut down, Disinformation Project researcher Sanjana Hattotuwa has warned.

   He says the levels of vitriol and conspiratorial discourse this past week or two are worse than anything he's seen during the past two years of the pandemic – including during the Parliament protest – but he's not aware of any public work to counteract it.

   "There is no policy, there's no framework, there's no real regulatory mechanism, there's no best practice, and there's no legal oversight," Dr Hattotuwa told RNZ.

   He says urgent action should be taken, and could include legislation, community-based initiatives, or a stronger focus on the recommendations of the March 15 mosque attacks inquiry.

   Further downthe NewsHub thread, someone had posted a link to "Silenced" by Samantha Blanchard.

   While it is about Covid and the institutional responses to questions or queries, it reveals our failure of protecting free speech, transparency and what is referred to as "uncomfortable science".

   For those who are adamant on their current position of using anti-vaxxer as a whole argument, it will cost you an hour to consider whether you agree with our institutions and government using that technique as counter-argument.

   For others in a less entrenched position, given the time elapse – it may provide a less adversarial look into the thinking and responses that created a fracture in families, community and society.

   https://vimeo.com/silencednz/full
   • RedLogix 6.1

     9 April 2023 at 1:35 pm

     For those who are adamant on their current position of using anti-vaxxer as a whole argument, it will cost you an hour to consider whether you agree with our institutions and government using that technique as counter-argument.

     I read that and nod my head, appreciating not only how well that expresses my feelings, but with a deep sense of irony and frustration.

     About a year ago I made a couple of brief mentions of my own encounter with the vaccines – but given the moderation policy around here and the general inability of most people to countenance even the smallest amount of nuance on the topic – I have remained silent since.

     The only mainstream specialist I consulted reluctantly admitted it was probably a vaccine response, but offered nothing positive, no hope and a bunch of drugs all of which have well known side effects, and long-term damage to health. Never went back.

     The good news is that a diagnosis of a severe autoimmune condition (fully confirmed by a highly reliable antibody test) is for the moment in good remission thanks to a combination of access to an excellent Functional Medicine clinician, and hundreds of hours of my own study and effort to treat it.

     A year ago I could barely walk 400m without needing to sit down, and on getting home needing to sleep for a few hours to recover. Yesterday I managed a 20km walk with a few intense climbs for the first time.

     While my clinician and I both agree there is no way to definitively link cause and effect between vax and injury – by treating this condition as if it were a response to vaccination using the same broad principles being used by others we have gotten to a far better outcome than I ever hoped for. (I will likely have to remain aware of this condition for the rest of my life, and there is always the chance of a relapse.) In this I am aware of how very fortunate I am compared to uncountable others who continue to suffer with all manner of dreadful outcomes, and emphatically I am not claiming any kind of moral status as a victim here.

     But I will say we had a social encounter with a woman we knew quite well last year, whose life is being completely fucked over with what is obviously a vaccine injury and I came away feeling angry and disillusioned in the rather raw moment of it. What really pisses me off is not so much that mistakes were made, but that the system does not want to acknowledge them, nor show any signs of learning. That and the unremitting 'safe and effective' gaslighting for three years now has firmed up my views on this topic.
     • Ad 6.1.1

       9 April 2023 at 3:27 pm

       Yup Red you were right.

       Pretty damn cruel vindication.

       Great to hear a vaccine reaction called an injury.

       Nek minnit group civil action, like asbestos.
       • RedLogix 6.1.1.1

         9 April 2023 at 3:38 pm

         I would much sooner have been completely wrong; and I am aware that the old "I told you so" is rarely welcome anywhere. So there is that.

         Incidentally for anyone enjoying the coastal scenery shots in the clip Molly linked to above – much of it is located at the mouth of the Anatori River, south of Whanganui Inlet in the Golden Bay region.
         • Molly 6.1.1.1.1

           10 April 2023 at 2:21 pm

           "Incidentally for anyone enjoying the coastal scenery shots in the clip Molly linked to above – much of it is located at the mouth of the Anatori River, south of Whanganui Inlet in the Golden Bay region."

           I did actually wonder where it was…
       • SPC 6.1.1.2

         9 April 2023 at 5:47 pm

         The vaccine makers have more immunity (and for longer) than the vaccine provided …
     • left for dead 6.1.2

       9 April 2023 at 3:27 pm

       Glad your on the mend Red.
       • RedLogix 6.1.2.1

         9 April 2023 at 3:42 pm

         

         Much credit goes to my clinician and the paradigm she works with which creates the space and time to understand underlying patterns and causes.

         And a fair dollop of good luck I think.
         • Cricklewood 6.1.2.1.1

           9 April 2023 at 4:04 pm

           This is one of a series of articles relating to the medsafe assesment of the Pfizer vax. Very interesting and somewhat despressing at the same time in that the politcal messaging was at timds quite different to what medsafe actually said.

           https://www.bassettbrashandhide.com/post/thomas-cranmer-revealed-nz-medsafe-s-safety-assessment-of-the-pfizer-vaccine-for-pregnant-women
         • Francesca 6.1.2.1.2

           9 April 2023 at 5:59 pm

           Good on you Red

           And yes , beautiful Golden Bay with its incredibly varied landscapes, and its welcoming approach to divergent thinkers of all stripes
     • Anker 6.1.3

       9 April 2023 at 3:51 pm

       Glad to hear you are in remission Red L
       • RedLogix 6.1.3.1

         9 April 2023 at 4:35 pm

         Thanks.
     • Molly 6.1.4

       9 April 2023 at 4:20 pm

       Glad to hear how much you have improved over the last year. It must be great to get back to a level of health that returns to you one of your loves of tramping and bushwalks.

       I really hope that some reflection starts taking place amongst participants in public discussion and media, that improves our current stagnant complacency.

       "What really pisses me off is not so much that mistakes were made, but that the system does not want to acknowledge them, nor show any signs of learning. "

       Unfortunately, I think you have hit the nail on the head here. There appears to be a lack of any self-reflection or quality assessment in the media. Online reporting seems to have prioritised production of copy, rather than quality of copy. News cycles are shorter, but comments and actions in the past are forever.

       No personal acknowledgement of error, or demonstration of growth is permitted when the focus is on dismissing information or perspective by writing off the messenger.

       The lack of criticism from legacy media regarding the formation of a government funded "Disinformation Project" is an indication of how far we have to go.

       I have great admiration for the fortitude and persistance of those who tried (and still try) to open up honest discussions about contentious issues. They may not make any shortlists for NZer of the year, but I believe there are many NZers that highly value their efforts.
       • Belladonna 6.1.4.1

         9 April 2023 at 9:44 pm

         There appears to be a lack of any self-reflection or quality assessment in the media.

         What concerns me, far more, is the apparent lack of self-reflection or quality assessment in either the senior levels of the MoH or in the government.
         • Molly 6.1.4.1.1

           10 April 2023 at 12:30 am

           True.
       • Ed1 6.1.4.2

         9 April 2023 at 10:44 pm

         It is my understanding that the "Disinformation Project" is government funded only to the extent that universities are government funded – it is not subject to government direction at all.

         See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Disinformation_Project

         As far as assessment of vaccines is concerned, there was clearly very little information available about possible side effects when the decision was taken to use it – Red Logic's clinician may well be one of those in the front-line of working out strategies for dealing with abnormal effects; in broad terms the gamble that the vaccine would be largely effective was succesful – New Zealand had the best overall results of any country with respect to actual deaths compared with expected deaths based on pre-Covid mortality. NZ was not the first country to use the vaccine; we were lucky to be able to have a lock-down while options were considered before a decision was made. Since then work has been ongoing in examining effects and considering how to minimise negative experiences. The media lose track of timelines, and undervalue the work of medical and other academics in monitoring both statistically and of individual out of normal responses in advising government when to ease up restrictions etc.
         • Molly 6.1.4.2.1

           10 April 2023 at 12:29 am

           Did you watch the video?
         • SPC 6.1.4.2.2

           10 April 2023 at 7:19 am

           It is my understanding that the "Disinformation Project" is government funded only to the extent that universities are government funded – it is not subject to government direction at all.

           I agree. The attacks on this are disinformation by those with their own agendas to greenwash themselves as more trustworthy alternative news sources. It's just an adaption of the tactic used by private corporation media and right wingers against public media/public service journalism.

           That then connects to alternative health grifters, anti-vaxxers (Kennedy USA) and anti-government libertarians exploiting the pandemic for their own reasons

           That said there is also the practice of government to management emergency with an official narrative, which can be singular and slow to adapt to circumstance. Some people with a useful perspective feel shut down and have grievances.
           • Molly 6.1.4.2.2.1

             10 April 2023 at 8:44 am

             Despite the supposed separation, a couple of points:

             1. The sheer arrogance of creating a organisation led by three social scientists to act as a filtering system for the vast amount of data available;
             2. Do you really believe funding does not lead to a form of self censorship?

             As an alternative to this project, I would suggest employing scientists, graduate students in specific disciplines to look at the data that government bases their decision making on, and provide critiques or supports online with the original data.

             Even better, take seriously some of the alternative perspectives and do the same with those.

             Decisions will still have to be made, but transparency will ensure those decisions are both seen to be, and are based on available evidence.
           • Drowsy M. Kram 6.1.4.2.2.2

             10 April 2023 at 8:44 am

             I agree. The attacks on this are disinformation by those with their own agendas to greenwash themselves as more trustworthy alternative news sources. It's just an adaption of the tactic used by private corporation media and right wingers against public media/public service journalism.

             True. And self-reflection seems in short supply – can't even trust myself

             The psychological drivers of misinformation belief and its resistance to correction [12 January 2022]
             Misinformation has been identified as a major contributor to various contentious contemporary events ranging from elections and referenda to the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Not only can belief in misinformation lead to poor judgements and decision-making, it also exerts a lingering influence on people’s reasoning after it has been corrected — an effect known as the continued influence effect. In this Review, we describe the cognitive, social and affective factors that lead people to form or endorse misinformed views, and the psychological barriers to knowledge revision after misinformation has been corrected, including theories of continued influence. We discuss the effectiveness of both pre-emptive (‘prebunking’) and reactive (‘debunking’) interventions to reduce the effects of misinformation, as well as implications for information consumers and practitioners in various areas including journalism, public health, policymaking and education.

             Critical Ignoring as a Core Competence for Digital Citizens
             [8 November 2022]
             Low-quality and misleading information online can hijack people’s attention, often by evoking curiosity, outrage, or anger. Resisting certain types of information and actors online requires people to adopt new mental habits that help them avoid being tempted by attention-grabbing and potentially harmful content. We argue that digital information literacy must include the competence of critical ignoring—choosing what to ignore and where to invest one’s limited attentional capacities. We review three types of cognitive strategies for implementing critical ignoring: self-nudging, in which one ignores temptations by removing them from one’s digital environments; lateral reading, in which one vets information by leaving the source and verifying its credibility elsewhere online; and the do-not-feed-the-trolls heuristic, which advises one to not reward malicious actors with attention.

             Rationally irrational: When people do not correct their reasoning errors even if they could. [27 March 2023]

             Belief in COVID-19 misinformation: Hopeful claims are rated as truer [10 January 2023; abstract only]

             The Spot the Troll Quiz Game Increases Accuracy in Discerning Between Real and Inauthentic Social Media Accounts
             [22 March 2023]

             It’s not (all) about the information: The role of cognition in creating and sustaining false beliefs
     • Bearded Git 6.1.5

       10 April 2023 at 8:21 am

       Red-while acknowledging that some people are adversely affected by the Covid vaccines, including probably yourself, the fact is that the science shows this is only a very tiny percentage of those vaccinated.

       The science also shows that, overall, the vaccines are safe and have been highly successful in saving many lives and reducing the symptoms of Covid in hundreds of millions of people.

       Would you have the world abandon these vaccines because you are one of the few unlucky ones that may have been adversely affected? Should we ignore the scientists and listen to you instead?
       • Molly 6.1.5.1

         10 April 2023 at 8:32 am

         There's a lot of vaccine data coming out that is showing the cost/benefit analysis of universal rollout. For much of the population the costs are higher.

         There also remains unanswered questions about the data used for government decision making.

         I think you are wrong to assume that concern is only the result of personal experience. It may add a degree of insight, but RedLogix most often engages with facts and soundly based opinion (which I acknowledge even when I disagree).

         Will this significant period ever be able to be openly discussed?
         • SPC 6.1.5.1.1

           10 April 2023 at 9:34 am

           At the aggregate level

           1. Lockdowns allowed an internal economy to operate. The alternative was the Swedish model of infection immunity (but they had a healthier population and better health system than us, so the outcomes would have been worse here).

           2. Transition back to an internationally connected economy either required vaccination or an unlikely rapid improvement in our population health or health system capacity. The issue was then whether we had a mass vaccination (with mandates) or a targeted one (without mandates). The other matter was accepting infection as a form of vaccination. Judgment calls.

           We made mistakes, the 2021 Auckland lockdown allowed us to bring people back into home isolation and free up Auckland managed quarantine for those from other regions (reducing the queue significantly). And we should have ended mandates once public vaccination targets were met (the impact on the reluctants would have been known to be temporary – negating the momentum behind the parliament protest).

           The No Debate Factor.

           There was a reluctance to allow debate that got in the way of government emergency management singularity. Nothing about reducing vaccination risk via "aspiration" (to prevent risk of vaccine getting into blood). No public health campaign – about nutrition to reduce risk, advice to get good sleep (better immunity), little Vitamin D (immunity) and zinc (cell health) testing as deficiencies would be risk factors. And no recognition that there was no harm from taking these and ivermectin or sweet wormwood (some countries did do that).
           • MollyA 6.1.5.1.1.1

             10 April 2023 at 10:06 am

             Thanks, SPC.

             I think the pandemic response and impact is one of those wide ranging topics that deserves a really comprehensive, open public examination.

             With the data currently available, I remain in support of the initial lockdown response of the government. They were dealing with unknown at that time, and the decision made gave breathing space.

             However, once that simple message of elimination by isolation was unable to be sustained, both the decisions and messaging became disordered. Not just errors in implementation of quarantines, but also a lack of concern for affected individuals. The duplication of the failed traffic light system in the UK, seemed to be a deliberate replication of a known failure.

             The vaccination issue is a big one. When people raised the issue of harms – normal for any medication – vs benefits, they were dismissed as anti-vaxxers, and given no voice or consideration at all.

             Are you happy with the scope of the Royal Inquiry?

             Do you have any concerns about the items that are outside the scope of the inquiry, because I do, as they are some of the most divisive aspects of what occurred.

             https://www.beehive.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2022-12/Summary%20of%20ToR%20for%20Royal%20Commission%20into%20COVID%20and%20any%20future%20pandemic.pdf

             Limits to inquiry’s scope

             The following matters are outside the scope of the inquiry:

              particular clinical decisions made by clinicians or by public health authorities during the COVID-19 pandemic;

              how and when the strategies and other measures devised in response to COVID-19 were implemented or applied in particular situations or in individual cases;

              the specific epidemiology of the COVID-19 virus and its variants;

              vaccine efficacy;

              the recent reforms to New Zealand’s health system, including the organisational arrangements for public health services;

              the judgments and decisions of courts and tribunals and independent agencies such as the Ombudsman, the Privacy Commissioner, or the Independent Police Conduct Authority relating to the COVID-19 pandemic;

              the operation of the private sector, except where the private sector delivers services integral to a pandemic response;

              particular decisions taken by the Reserve Bank’s independent monetary policy committee during the COVID-19 pandemic;

              any adaptation of court procedures by the judiciary during the COVID-19 pandemic;

              any adaptation of parliamentary processes during the COVID-19 pandemic;

              the conduct of the general election during the COVID-19 pandemic.
             • weka …

               10 April 2023 at 11:20 am

               please fix your username
               • Molly …

                 10 April 2023 at 2:02 pm

                 Sorry, noticed on subsequent comment and corrected.
         • Drowsy M. Kram 6.1.5.1.2

           10 April 2023 at 9:44 am

           There's a lot of vaccine data coming out that is showing the cost/benefit analysis of universal rollout. For much of the population the costs are higher.

           Without wishing to minimise anecdotal evidence of possible vaccine-related harm, recent cost/benefit analyses of vaccination against COVID-19 indicate an overall benefit. I'm a five-times recipient of the Pfizer stuff (most recently the Pfizer BA.4/5 bivalent vaccine) and still kicking! Just lucky I guess.

           https://covid19.govt.nz/covid-19-vaccines/get-your-covid-19-vaccination/

           Cost-effectiveness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccination in Low- and Middle-Income Countries [28 November 2022]
           Conclusions: Funding expanded COVID-19 vaccine delivery in LMICs would save hundreds of thousands of lives, be similarly or more cost-effective than other donor-funded global aid programs, and improve health equity.

           Economic evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination: A systematic review [2023]
           Conclusions: Given the favorable cost-effectiveness profile of COVID-19 vaccines and disparities in affordability across countries, considering prioritization has become paramount. This review provides comprehensive insights into the economic evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination that will be useful to policymakers, particularly in highlighting preventive measures and preparedness plans for the next possible pandemic.

           A Cost–Benefit Analysis of COVID-19 Vaccination in Catalonia [31 December 2021]
           Conclusions: The mass vaccination campaign against COVID is cost-saving. From a social perspective, most of these savings come from the monetization of the reduction in mortality and cases with sequelae, although the intervention is equally widely cost-effective from the health system perspective thanks to the reduction in the use of resources. It is concluded that, from an economic perspective, the vaccination campaign has high social returns.

           Non-pharmacological interventions, including travel restrictions, masks, social distancing, public education on preventive measures, and school closures have also been used to prevent and control COVID-19. Three-years on, however, vaccination is the 'lesser evil' when it comes to government measures to limit pandemic harm to citizens – imho.

           Also, no harm in trying some other stuff – vitamin D, zinc and other supplements to “support a healthy immune system” – whatever seems to work for you.

           Role of Supplements in the Management of COVID-19 – A Comprehensive Review [10 March 2023; abstract only]
           https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36896901/

           In conclusion, the authors wrote, “Despite inadequate evidence regarding dietary supplement use to prevent or treat COVID-19, sales for these supplements are projected to increase. The reliance on supplements may have short-term and long-term health consequences.”
           https://www.uspharmacist.com/article/supplement-use-increased-during-covid19
           • Molly 6.1.5.1.2.1

             10 April 2023 at 9:53 am

             Thanks for the plethora of links to familiar justifications.

             Just wondering when other perspectives and links will be able to be discussed and examined in full.
             • Drowsy M. Kram …

               10 April 2023 at 11:23 am

               Thanks for the plethora of links to familiar justifications.

               You're welcome; there is indeed plenty of evidence that being vaccinated against COVID-19 is good for me, as per consensus expert medical opinion.

               The Crucial Role of COVID-19 Vaccination in Preventing Severe Illness and Death: Evidence From a Korean Perspective
               [20 March 2023]

               Just wondering when other perspectives and links will be able to be discussed and examined in full.

               Afaik, there's nothing stopping this, although any discussion might fail to meet your "in full" criterion.

               Spike in deaths in Australia from COVID illnesses, not vaccine
               [18 March 2023]
               THE FACTS: Social media users are blaming the coronavirus vaccine on a sharp rise in deaths in Australia last year. Many are sharing an article from a website known to run stories based on conspiracy theories.

               Covid-19: Study reports no significant increase in deaths after vaccination but raises questions over AstraZeneca’s vaccine
               [29 March 2023]
               “While vaccination carries some risks, these need to be assessed in light of its benefits. Our analysis shows that the risk of death is greatly increased following a positive test for covid-19 even in young people, and many studies show that vaccines are highly effective at preventing hospitalisation or death following covid-19 infection.”
               https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-36494-0

               Whereas Prof. Benn opines "COVID-19 vaccines should not be used in healthy children", which also seems credible – Benn believes vaccines are "the largest untapped resource for improving health globally."

               In NZ, the MoH still offers two 'child doses' (at least 8 weeks apart) of the Pfizer vaccine for healthy children aged 5 – 11 years. Children aged 12 – 15 years are eligible for two full adult doses (also at least 8 weeks apart), while those aged 16 – 29 years are also eligible for a single booster dose.

               https://www.immunise.health.nz/about-immunisation/nz-immunisations/covid-19-vaccines/#when

               Consensus expert medical opinion on the benefits/costs of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 infection continue to evolve, as will the virus.

               COVID’s ‘new normal’: 120,000 U.S. deaths per year?
               [14 March 2023]
               Many of today’s public health workers may not have been around for the smallpox, polio, and measles vaccination campaigns of the 20th century, so they may have forgotten the hidden superpower of vaccine rollouts — they get stronger and more effective as you vaccinate more people. The relief, joy, and finality of the campaign to vaccinate against polio were expressed best by historian Jill Lepore: “That’s the great blessing of a vaccination program,” she said. “We forget how bad the disease was.”

               As a society, let’s ensure that we heed the warning implicit in this message, and not come full circle in how much we have forgotten.

               Commonwealth Fund: COVID-19 vaccine prevented more than 18M hospitalizations, 3M deaths [13 December 2022]

               Three million deaths prevented! But at what cost?
               • weka …

                 10 April 2023 at 11:26 am

                 you got caught in the spam filter. either there is a typo in your name or email, or too many links.
                 • Incognito …

                   10 April 2023 at 11:33 am

                   Too many links
               • weka …

                 10 April 2023 at 11:34 am

                 did you read my last reply to you? Now you are in premod. Check for typos and stop putting up so many links, it’s not looking like spam.
                 • Drowsy M. Kram …

                   10 April 2023 at 12:00 pm

                   Apologies weka, I tried (and failed) to keep the number of links under 9 – too full for some, not full enough for others.

                   In future, I will keep the number of links under 8, or split any comments with too many links to avoid the spam filter and work for you. Imho the links were pertinent to the topic under discussion – COVID-19 vaccination costs and benefits.

                   Some public perceptions of the costs and benefits of vaccinations and other public health interventions will change as the pandemic (hopefully) fades – into memory.

                   https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jan/09/pandemic-fading-collective-memory

                   https://www.washingtonpost.com/wellness/2023/03/13/brain-memory-pandemic-covid-forgetting/
                   • weka …

                     10 April 2023 at 12:55 pm

                     I suggest limiting to 5 links. Or use your own words.
             • Bearded Git …

               10 April 2023 at 11:38 am

               Molly-by "other perspectives" I assume you mean the loony anti-science perspectives?
               • Molly …

                 10 April 2023 at 2:00 pm

                 I assume from your comment they may be from what you may call " loony anti-science perspectives" – So…Yes.

                 
           • RedLogix 6.1.5.1.2.2

             10 April 2023 at 11:07 am

             We have been over this ground many times, and it always ends in an unwanted and unwinnable confrontation with moderation.
             • Incognito …

               10 April 2023 at 11:22 am

               It does?

               Sounds like a fob off and cop out.

               You have a huge chip or two on your shoulder about moderation. Deal with it and/or let it go, for your own sake.
               • RedLogix …

                 10 April 2023 at 11:35 am

                 I carefully said that any confrontation with the moderators was entirely unwanted on my part. For reasons you have just made clear.
                 • Incognito …

                   10 April 2023 at 11:56 am

                   I have made clear, to you, that it is your personal problem, IMO.

                   Where you see a “confrontation” with a Mod, I see an observational and honest opinion of another commenter.

                   Take it or leave it.
       • RedLogix 6.1.5.2

         10 April 2023 at 12:53 pm

         Would you have the world abandon these vaccines because you are one of the few unlucky ones that may have been adversely affected?

         No. In brief it appears they had a positive benefit cost ratio for people over the age of 60. But given the rate of serious harms from the vaccine – which I understand is a lot higher than you seem to imagine – for all other age groups I predict that in a few years time it will be recognised these vaccines caused more harm than good.

         At the same time it is also clear is the strong correlation between Vitamin D3 deficiency and bad COVID outcomes that would have had a far better cost-benefit ratio.

         Human beings are almost unique among mammals in that we synthesis this essential hormone from sunlight, yet our modern indoor lifestyle prevents most people from achieving adequate levels for good health. In my view a blood level below 50 ng/ml (125 nmol/ml) is suboptimum. (For my own reasons I am maintaining my level a bit more than twice this.)

         My close family have all been supplementing with VitD3 and K2 since at least the start of the pandemic and not one of us, despite minimal precautions, has caught COVID. And last year I was working in an office surrounded by people constantly taking time off work with it – despite them being vaxxed up the wazoo. This is of course medical proof of nothing, but it is our experience.

         And before anyone leaps onto my case here – I am very aware the Vit D3 supplementation story is more complex than simply swallowing handfuls of capsules. There is an anomaly that arises between observational studies which reliably show a strong correlation between measured blood VitD levels and good COVID outcomes, yet when they run experimental studies that try and establish a causation between supplementing and good outcomes – the conclusions are a lot more ambiguous.

         From a public health perspective this creates a bit of a problem because there is no simple 'one size fits all' recommendation they can push out to the population as a whole. On the other hand there is no good reason why general medical practice should not be paying a lot more attention to this on a per patient level.

         From 2013 to 2018 I was living in Ballarat, VIC. The winters there are consistently cold and cloudy, and for three years running both my partner and I came down with recurring and severe bronchitis. If one of us got better for a few weeks the other would relapse. Then I had a project that took me to the Canadian Arctic for 8 months which effectively meant I would have to go through three winters in a row. I mentioned this to the travel doc we always had to see before any major trip and he suggested I take 400IU VitD3 daily, and I duly took half a dozen bottles with me.

         Working on a remote site, every time the plane arrives it brings a whole new batch of bugs and everyone on site came down with something horrid at least once. Except me – the oldest person on site as it happened. Then I had to do an extra last rotation and I had run out of the tablets I had taken to Canada and thought nothing of it. All good until my last few days when a fresh operator I shared a workspace with, arrived on the Friday flight with a cough. Tuesday morning – the day of my trip home to Aus – I was ill. The next 40 hours was the utter pits. I was so crook I was nearly denied boarding at Hong Kong.

         Based on that lesson when I got home I started both of us taking 400IU VitD on a semi-regular basis. Since then neither of us have had a single day of respiratory illness. Since early 2020 we upped this dose considerably and still no illness of any kind – other than this stupid autoimmune condition that occurred very shortly after my second AZ dose.

         My takeaway message here is not that you should go out and randomly buy a bottle of VitD3 and start wolfing it down. Rather there is plenty of good information out there to consider and to choose what you do on an informed consent basis.
         • Molly 6.1.5.2.1

           10 April 2023 at 1:13 pm

           When my blood tests returned an extremely low Vitamin D level, a lot of the advice said it took 6 to eight weeks to get sustained Vit D levels.

           The Covid studies I looked at did not have long lead in times for supplementation, which made me wonder if despite Vitamin D levels the immune system was not yet fully primed.

           I've just stayed with my mother for several days, while she had her first bout with Covid. She's been on VitD and K2 for the last two years, and recovered within the week even with delayed access to the antivirals.

           I took basic precautions and tested negative all the way through. (Also on high-dose Vit D etc)
           • RedLogix 6.1.5.2.1.1

             10 April 2023 at 1:37 pm

             Yes. Being a fat soluble hormone (which is what it really is) – levels of VitD3 are relatively slow to change. More importantly the stored form – from either ingestion or sunlight synthesis – needs to go through two stages of metabolism in the liver and kidneys before it is available to the cells of the body in a usable form. This accounts for a least two weeks of delay. Also it seems there is considerable genetic variation in how efficiently individuals express these molecular pathways.

             On balance it seems that taking up to 4000 IU daily is a dose that can be sustained safely by almost anyone. (This is perfectly reasonable if you consider that an hour of full body sunshine will synthesise something in the order of 20,000 IU.)

             But if you are going to go beyond this, because VitD increases calcium absorption, it is essential to consider adding Vit K3 in order to ensure the extra blood calcium is stored in the bones rather than the tissues. And then ask your GP to include a blood test as often as is practical, say 2 -3 times a year, so as you can track what is going on. Here in Aus the test is free and just a tick box on the standard form.

             This is just the basics – again a combination of being informed and taking responsibility for you own health is my takeaway here. If you do not like what I am saying, please feel free to ignore it.
             • Molly …

               10 April 2023 at 1:57 pm

               The first paragraph triggered off past research, so thanks for the reminder info.

               The rest has informed my supplement use. Which for other reasons to do with bone health, are pertinent to me.

               Do you know what your specific monitoring tests are in Oz?
               • RedLogix …

                 10 April 2023 at 2:31 pm

                 I'm not sure how to answer this question. As I mentioned, the standard blood test forms just have a tick box to order it.

                 On the Lab report the result is under a Section called: Cumulative Serum Vitamin D reported in units of nmol/L.

                 For what it is worth we also track Serum Calcium and Magnesium.
7. Incognito 7

   9 April 2023 at 11:07 am

   I applaud Sarah Sparks, who has written an excellent opinion piece on Stuff, for including many (!) useful (embedded) links to primary sources instead of the usual and idiosyncratic Stuff self-referencing.

   https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/300838350/as-trust-in-government-declines-its-time-to-get-back-to-basics

   There was only one paragraph towards the end with four links all referring to Stuff pieces. Probably an (emotional junior) Editor’s doing
8. Anne 8

   9 April 2023 at 11:37 am

   The first few seconds of this recording of Ardern's valedictory speech is revealing. Stop the video immediately after start and you will see not one ACT parliamentary member appears to have been present.

   Puerile, distasteful and thoroughly disrespectful to the former Prime Minister. I doubt it has ever happened before that a political party – plus leader – has absented itself from a prime ministerial valedictory speech.

   And how much media publicity was it given? Next to nothing by the looks of it.

   Yet they pounced on a Green MP who made an admittedly silly call over a colleague. I venture to suggest the lack of respect and childishness from the ACT leader and his sycophants was a far more important story:

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/487408/watch-jacinda-ardern-gives-valedictory-speech-as-she-leaves-politics
   • Peter 8.1

     9 April 2023 at 12:13 pm

     Some of the Act members were there.
     • dvT 8.1.1

       9 April 2023 at 12:24 pm

       Name them Peter.
       • Molly 8.1.1.1

         9 April 2023 at 12:54 pm

         If the parliamentary seating plan given here is correct:

         https://www.parliament.nz/en/mps-and-electorates/house-seating-plan/

         and MPs are sitting in their allocated seats, it appears Peter is correct just by comparing screenshots of the video, to the seating plan.
   • Belladonna 8.2

     9 April 2023 at 2:02 pm

     At the end of Ardern's speech, when they pan the camera around the chamber (36.25)
     It's clear that Brooke Van Velden is in her assigned seat – and it looks as though she's invited another ACT member to sit in Seymour's one (think it may be Karen Chhour). Another 3 MPs in designated ACT seats behind them.
     • Anne 8.2.1

       9 April 2023 at 2:09 pm

       Yes, there are ACT seats with people in them. Only a few by the looks of it. They looked empty to me. Time to upgrade my prescription glasses.
       • Belladonna 8.2.1.1

         9 April 2023 at 2:27 pm

         I agree that it's a lot easier to see at the end – when they pan around the chamber, than at the beginning – it's really difficult to identify someone from a view of the back of their head!
         I think that most of those empty seats – are National Party back benchers.
     • Peter 8.2.2

       9 April 2023 at 6:18 pm

       When I saw it said that Act members were not there I went searching because I was going to put the boot into them.

       I used screen shots of two angles from the coverage and the seating plan to check before I attacked them. I saw what you saw.
   • Ad 8.3

     9 April 2023 at 3:31 pm

     About 1/3 of the speech is Ardern self-aggrandising about having a baby.

     Another 1/3 is thanking her staff.

     Ardern didn't generate the policy outcomes of Jim Anderton, let alone Helen Clark, David Lange or Michael Cullen.

     Ardern is about the same as Key: she just managed.
     • Stephen 8.3.1

       9 April 2023 at 4:29 pm

       FFS, you don’t think a civil service overwhelmed by managing covid, allied to exhaustion caused by the same thing, including a terrorist attack and a civil emergency had anything to do with it?
       • Ad 8.3.1.1

         9 April 2023 at 5:02 pm

         Since most prime ministers in the last 7 terms have faced country-altering crises and done at least as well in their own way, I just don't care.

         Good on Ardern for working hard. She was paid for it.

         Otherwise, her resignation shows she was obviously over-promoted, too young, no governance experience, not match fit, and got out when she needed a break.
         • Liberty Belle 8.3.1.1.1

           9 April 2023 at 6:51 pm

           Yep. Or before she was pushed.
           • Louis 8.3.1.1.1.1

             10 April 2023 at 4:09 pm

             Ardern wasn't pushed, they wanted her stay.
             • Liberty Belle …

               10 April 2023 at 6:43 pm

               I doubt that. Her polling was dropping like a stone, and Labour would have known they were in for a hiding come this years election. Hipkins 'pushing pause' on so many of her governments key policies, policies he himself had been part of, was a very carefully orchestrated plan.
               • Louis …

                 11 April 2023 at 2:30 pm

                 Rubbish, that's just your opinion. Ardern was still most preferred PM.
                 • Liberty Belle …

                   12 April 2023 at 1:52 pm

                   My comment "Her polling was dropping like a stone" is easily verifiable, if you had bothered.

                   There is a graph here that shows the huge drop in her popularity between late 2020 and Jan 2023. Taking the OneNews/Kantar poll as an example, Arderns preferred PM number was 58% in Dec 2020, by Nov 2022 it was 29%.

                   Her net favourability paints an even bleaker picture. The graphs here show just how desperately unpopular she had become.
                   • Louis …

                     12 April 2023 at 3:30 pm

                     Lol kiwiblog. Fact is Ardern remained the country's most preferred PM. There is no way the numbers would remain at those stratospheric highs of 2020, it was inevitable that they would come down, particularly as life began to return to near normal from the pandemic. Polling has Labour consistently in the 30s, often times neck and neck with National, not exactly the catastrophe you are making out. Besides it's normal for incumbents to go through a mid term slump.
                 • Liberty Belle …

                   12 April 2023 at 4:03 pm

                   "Fact is Ardern remained the country's most preferred PM."

                   So? That's almost certainly due to incumbency. My comment was "Her polling was dropping like a stone". That is not even up for debate, unless you think a decline from 58% to 29% is somehow positive.
                   • Louis …

                     12 April 2023 at 5:59 pm

                     Already addressed in the previous post and my point is, for the umpteenth time, is that polling had Ardern as most preferred PM. It's irrelevant that you don't like that fact.
                 • Liberty Belle …

                   12 April 2023 at 7:06 pm

                   "Already addressed in the previous post and my point is, for the umpteenth time, is that polling had Ardern as most preferred PM."

                   Irrelevant. Her popularity had dropped by 50%, and her net favourables were negative. I'm not sure there is a precedent for such a fall. It was only a matter of time.
                   • Louis …

                     12 April 2023 at 9:48 pm

                     Your opinion is irrelevant. Polling had Ardern as most preferred PM.
                 • Liberty Belle …

                   12 April 2023 at 7:22 pm

                   "Besides it's normal for incumbents to go through a mid term slump."

                   You need to get better lines.

                   Jacinda Ardern 'resigned' at the beginning of her 6th year in office.

                   At the same time of his tenure (in early 2014), John Key polled (in the same One News poll – to be consistent) 42%. Not 29%, 42%.
                   • Louis …

                     12 April 2023 at 9:53 pm

                     It's not about having better lines, it is normal for incumbents to go through a mid term slump. Don't know why you are twisting yourself into knots because Jacinda was still most preferred PM.
                 • Liberty Belle …

                   12 April 2023 at 10:54 pm

                   "It's not about having better lines, it is normal for incumbents to go through a mid term slump."

                   So you claim, but without any evidence. John Key's number were far above Jacinda Arderns at the same time of his premiership. The earliest poll I can find for Helen Clark (Opinion polling for the 2008 New Zealand general election – Wikipedia) had her on 43% after 6 years as PM. So basically you're making shit up.

                   "Don't know why you are twisting yourself into knots because Jacinda was still most preferred PM."

                   Don't know why you're repeating something irrelevant to my comment. Ardern's popularity had fallen by half. That is a big drop by any measure. Labour's own polling had dropped significantly between January 2021 and January 2023.

                   So her PPM numbers were far below Clark and Key at equivalent periods, her net favourables had collapsed, and Labour had to move her on to have any hope of victory.

                   Which part of this is unclear to you?
                   • Louis …

                     12 April 2023 at 11:15 pm

                     I am not making shit up and you're being hypocritical, you cant handle the fact that polling had Ardern as the country's most preferred PM, despite a drop in the numbers, which I had already addressed in a previous post. If anyone is making shit up it's you, you're grasping at straws, Labour never 'moved her on' they wanted her to stay. So unless you're happy to go round and round in circles, we will have to agree to disagree.
                 • Liberty Belle …

                   13 April 2023 at 9:08 am

                   "I am not making shit up…"

                   Well yeah, you are. You said "Besides it's normal for incumbents to go through a mid term slump.", which the numbers show is wrong.

                   But parking that, the preferred PM numbers are far less relevant than the trend. At the beginning of 2008, Helen Clark as polling around 50% in the preferred PM data. Who won that election?

                   The trend for Ardern was horrible. Labour knew her brand had become tarnished and moved to replace her. How else do you explain the policy back tracking since?
                   • Louis …

                     13 April 2023 at 11:29 am

                     I'm not the one making shit up, but you are though. Cherry picking a graph doesn't help you either. The trend still had Jacinda as most preferred PM. Hipkins followed through with a directive that PM Ardern had already made to her ministers last year, which was, to go through the legislative program where some polices would be cut or deferred for the upcoming general election in 2023.
                 • Liberty Belle …

                   13 April 2023 at 12:13 pm

                   "The trend still had Jacinda as most preferred PM."

                   There you go again. So was Helen Clark. Who won the 2008 election?

                   "Hipkins followed through with a directive that PM Ardern had already made to her ministers last year, which was, to go through the legislative program where some polices would be cut or deferred for the upcoming general election in 2023."

                   You're a comedian. If you seriously think the policy 'bonfire' had any intention other than to win an election that Ardern was going to lose, you'd believe anything. You'd even believe changing the name of 3Waters was anything other than a cynical political ploy to make a dog look less like a dog.
                   • Louis …

                     13 April 2023 at 12:47 pm

                     Well, you don't actually know what the outcome of the 2023 election will be, again, you're just making assumptions and it looks like you didn't know that it was Ardern, who still remained Most Preferred PM, that wanted the govt's work load trimmed for the election. NZ politics is cyclic, generally it's three terms, then there's a change of govt (under MMP). Nice deflection by changing the topic Liberty Belle, it's a lot more than just a title.
                 • Liberty Belle …

                   13 April 2023 at 1:11 pm

                   "Well, you don't actually know what the outcome of the 2023 election will be…"

                   Yes, but we know the outcome of the 2008 election…did you miss the point?

                   BTW – you're doing an outstanding job of defending the biggest policy dump in christendom
                   • Louis …

                     13 April 2023 at 1:18 pm

                     Rubbish, you're being overly dramatic Liberty Belle. 2008, Labour had already done three terms, remember? which proves my point.
                 • Liberty Belle …

                   13 April 2023 at 1:31 pm

                   "2008, Labour had already done three terms, remember?"

                   Yes, and yet Clark's preferred PM numbers were far far higher than Arderns after less than 2.
                   • Louis …

                     13 April 2023 at 1:49 pm

                     John key polled higher than Helen Clark for most preferred PM 2007 – 2008. Not the case for National's 5th and current leader, Chris Luxon, Jacinda out polled him.
                 • Liberty Belle …

                   13 April 2023 at 2:41 pm

                   "John key polled higher than Helen Clark for most preferred PM 2007"

                   You make a lot of stuff up without sourcing.

                   Fact check – at the start of the 2008 election year, Helen Clark was polling at 50%. Where was Ardern again, at the beginning of the 2023 election year?
                   • Louis …

                     13 April 2023 at 4:24 pm

                     2007 Key ends Clark's 8-year reign as preferred PM

                     https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/key-ends-clarks-8-year-reign-as-preferred-pm/GOC5SWMF5EFYNITBNKUIPVZK6M/

                     2008 Key overtakes Clark in latest Herald poll

                     https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/key-overtakes-clark-in-latest-herald-poll-video/43N2GRRMMP73PINLW2CT7BCYVY/

                     Where was Ardern again, at the beginning of the 2023 election year?

                     Polling ahead of Luxon as most preferred PM.
                 • Liberty Belle …

                   13 April 2023 at 5:30 pm

                   The second link is from March, not the beginning of the year, so you're cherry picking, which is hardly surprising.

                   At the equivalent time of the election year that Ardern resigned (19 January 2023), meaning January 2008, Clark was on 50%, Key on 39%.

                   Ardern was toast, and she knew it.
                   • Louis …

                     13 April 2023 at 6:21 pm

                     And round and round we go. That's just your opinion. Cherry picking? Lol that's rich coming from you! You claimed I made stuff up, without sourcing. Proved you wrong.

                     Your question "Where was Ardern again, at the beginning of the 2023 election year"?

                     Polling ahead of Luxon as most preferred PM. Is fact, no matter how you want to spin it otherwise.
                   • Libertybelle []

                     13 April 2023 at 6:49 pm

                     Another deflection away to the boundary.
                   • Louis …

                     13 April 2023 at 8:07 pm

                     Hypocritical, that's what you're doing.
                 • Liberty Belle …

                   13 April 2023 at 8:56 pm

                   "You claimed I made stuff up, "

                   You did. You claimed "it's normal for incumbents to go through a mid term slump."

                   I showed you that both Key and Clark were polling better than Ardern at the same time of their premiership. In early January 2014, Key polled as high as 51%. So you're making stuff up.
                   • Louis …

                     13 April 2023 at 11:40 pm

                     Again that's hypocritical, you were proved wrong. It is normal for incumbents to have a slump in the polls mid term. That is a fact. Ardern remained most preferred PM until she resigned, banging on about 2008 doesn't change that fact. Unlike Key, Luxon is not cutting it and is losing more ground if the polls are anything to go by. The current National party are not polling as high as it did in 2007/2008 either. It was never a sure thing that National would win in 2023, (that's just wishful thinking), even if Ardern had stayed on. Jacinda would have annihilated Luxon in the debates. Have already said that I disagree with your opinions, (like you disagree with mine), and that we will have to agree to disagree. So, if you want to continue to go round in circles, expect the same replies in response.
                 • Liberty Belle …

                   14 April 2023 at 8:31 am

                   "That is a fact."

                   No, it's an assertion you are making without any evidence. Conversely, at the equivalent time that Ardern resigned, Key and Clark were polling well above her numbers. Just accept it.
                   • Louis …

                     14 April 2023 at 9:45 am

                     Just accept the fact that Jacinda was still most preferred PM. Key and Clark never faced the level of crises that Jacinda had. Different political landscape back then, also SM wasn't much of a thing either. Didn't realize that you were genuinely politically naive. Found the following for you. Mind you, you could have checked this for yourself.

                     "it is actually normal for a government to be behind in the polls mid-term"

                     "Helen Clark faced a similar slump in Labour’s polling in 2003-2004"

                     https://www.newsroom.co.nz/how-labour-fell-into-crisis-barely-two-years-after-its-historic-election-win
         • SPC 8.3.1.1.2

           9 April 2023 at 8:19 pm

           Meh, she was the magnet for the hate the woke/left in government crowd on social media worldwide (and Murdoch media and the Telegraph/Spectator Maddening Grunt crowd). The personal safety factor alone when out and about with family …

           Not getting burnt out as PM new mother and COVID illness recovery would have been the surprise.

           There was agreement to have the PGF.

           – Trades training and apprenticeships all free. Already delivered for 250,000 people

           – Free school lunches for 220,000 young people

           – Made the first new public holiday in five decades

           – Winter Energy Payment for over a million New Zealanders

           The half price public transport, permanent for some.

           – Minimum wage is now $22.70 per hour. Remember what it was under National?

           And welfare has been improved (a real increase and improved rate determination)

           – Sustained the entire economy by essentially subsidising every major business through the largest economic and social crisis we have faced since WW2

           – Massively expanded Pharmac category and disease subsidy

           – Handled the largest epidemic in a century and kept 99.9% of New Zealand cohesive

           – Delivered more than 14,000 public and transitional houses

           And ended the ability to claim mortgage interest against rent income for existing property – so as to encourage sale to first home buyers and direct investment to new property

           – The Families Package is the biggest state boost in $$ for over a decade

           – Secured Free Trade Agreement with the EU

           – Paid parental leave expanded to 26 weeks ie from 4 months to 6 months

           – Free doctors visits for all children under 14

           – Doubled minimum sick leave

           – Kept the country from breaking down into revenge and chaos after our worst ever massacre since the late 1800s.

           – Delivered an economy with record low unemployment, which is larger than than pre-covid despite the worst economic shock since the Great Depression

           – Required all rental houses to be warm and dry, and much higher renter security against landlords

           Changed the perceptions of the wider world by appointing Mahuta as FM.

           And of course the increase in nurse pay, and centralisation to end post code health services (because of scarce resources and HB's being in debt).

           Then there was forcing the country to face its 21st century issues – water infrastructure, the signing of the UN Rights of Indigenous Peoples (the Oz consultative model seems OK) and related matter of the legal consequences of the sale of the power companies as to the Treaty (co-governance models).
           • SPC 8.3.1.1.2.1

             9 April 2023 at 8:27 pm

             Also the Business Finance Guarantee scheme.

             With the rise in OCR and debt cost this needs to be built on for the longer term.

             A windfall profits tax on banks would provide the funds (takes it out of the category of something to be afforded out of budget revenues).

             1. an insurance scheme for the lending of money to business by banks/financial institutions.

             Business loans are expensive (because of risk), and so people are limited to loans against their property or issuing shares (which have had poor take up). This causes business problems because of the swings between property speculation binges and high OCR/bank interest rates.

             2. interest free loans to farmers to ensure improved farm environment standards without higher operating cost.

             3. other loans for improvements to productivity…

             Background

             2023 changes to the Business Finance Guarantee Scheme

             https://www.wk.co.nz/blog/new-zealand-government-announces-small-business-cashflow-scheme-and-business-finance-guarantee-scheme-bfgs/

             https://www.wk.co.nz/blog/big-changes-to-the-new-zealand-business-finance-guarantee-scheme/

             Original foundation in 2020 as part of the COVID response

             https://www2.deloitte.com/nz/en/pages/tax/articles/business-finance-guarantee-scheme-launched.html

             https://www.bdo.nz/en-nz/covid-19/business-finance-guarantee-scheme
           • Louis 8.3.1.1.2.2

             10 April 2023 at 2:11 am

             Agree with the list, but “woke/left in government crowd”?
             • SPC …

               10 April 2023 at 7:06 am

               The right wing crowd on social media portrayed her as as leading a left wing woke government – they called the lock down and mandates anti-freedom. They attacked the effort to reduce hate on social media (and gun control) as a threat to "western civilisation" free speech etc. She was associated with "woke" globalist agendas – gender rights and green environment etc.
               • Louis …

                 10 April 2023 at 4:07 pm

                 Spot on, thanks for the explanation SPC.
           • Bearded Git 8.3.1.1.2.3

             10 April 2023 at 8:09 am

             Great work SPC with that list. Update and repeat it close to the election.

             Labour/Greens must counter the narrative Luxon is running that they haven't delivered.
             • SPC …

               10 April 2023 at 8:17 am

               Meh.

               Everything with a – in front was first written by Ad on Go Well Jacinda. I am just handing him his cognitive dissonance head.
               • Louis …

                 10 April 2023 at 4:08 pm

                 
   • Anker 8.4

     9 April 2023 at 3:53 pm

     I heard Seymour had a speaking engagement in Whangarei that was booked months before Jacindas speech scheduled, but I guess that still might not be a good enough excuse
     • Anne 8.4.1

       9 April 2023 at 6:42 pm

       A very convenient excuse for him.
     • Anker 8.4.2

       9 April 2023 at 7:36 pm

       Yes probably Anne. I am not sure Jacinda would have missed his presence
       • Brigitte 8.4.2.1

         9 April 2023 at 8:26 pm

         But sometimes a politician is missed. From David Lange's valedictory:

         "I think Winston Peters is a person who brings his own particular
         style to this House. He would have been with us today, would he not,
         Tau, if he had not been detained by a full-length mirror!"
9. Mac1 9

   9 April 2023 at 12:05 pm

   Easter Sunday and a time for reflection.

   Overhead old war planes deafen the skies and thirty thousand people come to see them, some flying in and out for the day.

   In the fields labourers work all day and night to harvest the grapes, truck drivers and vintage workers as well.

   Meanwhile young idiots play chicken with loaded grape trucks at roundabouts to see if they can cause a spillage or worse.

   Meanwhile Luxon visits, Seymour is coming with his road show in a week and 200mm of rain is forecast again for the Sounds.

   And parked on the side of the road is an ICE ute with a message on the back window- "F*ck the Taxman."

   My philosophical friend on the hill walk this morning spoke of the multi dimensions we live in beyond the 3 +1 that we all acknowledge.

   Some do live among us but in an alternative world……. you, dear reader, can choose which of the above.
   • Anne 9.1

     9 April 2023 at 2:00 pm

     Great comment Mac1 and the future is not looking bright if the current social media saturated with falsehoods and disinformation is allowed to continue. That is where 90% of those living in the "alternative world" are getting their information.

     Yesterday I learned that a close relative living in Australia has succumbed to the 'alternative' view points. He recently ranted aloud about Jacinda Ardern in the most vile of language and wished upon her an equally vile end. I would not dare repeat any of it here. Next time he chooses to visit NZ he would be very wise to keep his distance from me.
10. Molly 10

    9 April 2023 at 12:10 pm

    Reposting this video here because my comment on the article was a late addition to yesterday's Open Mike and may have been missed by those interested in climate change and industry initiatives:

    https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-08-04-2023/#comment-1944479

    I read the article yesterday in my partner's copy of NZ Trucking and it is a informative one about a company he has close ties to. I posted it as an example of what some in the transport industry are doing even before regulatory or directive legislation is enacted.

    There are many decision makers in different industries making such decisions, and I believe they should not only be recognised, but utilised when talking with others in their industries.

    Online version of the article here:

    https://www.nztrucking.co.nz/switch-on/

    (The four Quick reads from Test links are also worth the read to add further detail to an already informative article).

    Nuance and numbers

    “It’s not a science experiment or a greenwashing thing. The trucks are going to do the job the old ones did,” Mark says as we take a walk around the Wiri depot. “The trucks spend a lot of time stationary loading and unloading – we don’t need a big range.”

    Grant opens the Daimler telematics app on his phone to illustrate the fleet benchmarks. “The 26 Euro-6 vehicles we can access data on are averaging 2.3km/l this week (between Sunday and Friday), over 31,000km, at an average speed of 22kph. The extremes are 1.8 and 3.3km/l.”

    Mark explains the potential savings. “For diesel, we may look at 2kpl at $1.20. Fuelling an EV is four to 15 times cheaper, depending on how you source or produce your energy.”

    He points to the array of solar panels on the roof of one of the buildings. On average, they produce 500kWh daily, enough to run three of the Scanias.

    However, the setup is yet to be complete so, for now, the Scanias charge off a portable 40kW charger connected to the grid at Wiri and a 120kW charger (the maximum the trucks can handle) at Onehunga.

    “There are all these little nuances,” Mark says. The megawatt charging standard coming in 2024 will revolutionise it, so we have to design our charging infrastructure for that. We can connect to the grid to trickle charge at night when the cost is low and have a 300kW solar setup and a 2mWh battery storage system to charge at a megawatt off- grid. That’s a couple of million dollars…

    “But we’ve burnt a million litres of diesel a year for the past 15 years… so investing in the long term, we can drop energy to a fraction and fix that cost for decades with a microgrid.”

    I haven't watched the video, but include it again, for those who prefer:

    https://youtu.be/Z1RpietQHr8

    @joe90 also provided an update link on the swappable batteries project across the Tasman:

    Comment link: https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-08-04-2023/#comment-1944503

    https://youtu.be/9eYLtPSf7PY
11. weka 11

    9 April 2023 at 2:59 pm

    GC people, if you have links, esp the videos, to this mobbing of Riley Gaines, can you please drop them here. I will try and do a post. What I'm after is tweets, posts and video that clearly show what happened in real time (preferably without a lot of editorialising).

    https://twitter.com/aniobrien/status/1644879292160167936
    • SPC 11.1

      9 April 2023 at 3:18 pm

      Just the aftermath

      https://twitter.com/davidllamas_/status/1644188996887777280

      The swimmer is to be on Fox News Tucker Carlson. Boy Kirk is all over it.
      • SPC 11.1.1

        9 April 2023 at 3:39 pm

        Already historic – from 13 min

        https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/tucker-carlson-transgenderism-most-dangerous-extremist-movement-united-states
      • Molly 11.1.2

        9 April 2023 at 4:30 pm

        Tucker Carlson's interview with Riley Gaines:

        https://youtu.be/d9_2VMImU7Q
        • Blade 11.1.2.1

          9 April 2023 at 6:39 pm

          Again we have authorities refusing to take firm action against these terrorists. And the reason is probably threefold – they will get no support from liberal MSM. Any Trans who's injured will become an instant martyr. Police forces across the western world should hold their heads in shame. How did men in dresses, and women with beards, become a major political force in society?
          • Anker 11.1.2.1.1

            9 April 2023 at 10:13 pm

            100% Blade
    • Molly 11.2

      9 April 2023 at 4:29 pm

      Good thread here, from before the scheduled event till when she left the campus.

      Looks like it was tweeted as events unfolded, but has several video links etc, so much more tweet savvy than me:

      https://twitter.com/GGXnews/status/1644145754037161985?s=20
    • Molly 11.3

      9 April 2023 at 4:33 pm

      Do you have the link to the mother of one of the swimmers in the swim team that was released last year?

      I can try and find it, if it will be of use. It was quite a powerful statement of the impact on the other team members.
12. Blade 12

    9 April 2023 at 3:12 pm

    Reading about this case yesterday. Video in article.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11949057/Terrified-Riley-Gaines-ambushed-screaming-trans-activists-physically-attacked-her.html
    • Liberty Belle 12.1

      9 April 2023 at 6:54 pm

      Are these people incapable of sustaining an adult conversation about the issues, or are they just plain violent by default?
      • Blade 12.1.1

        9 April 2023 at 7:05 pm

        Good question. Maybe this clip gives us ingress into their mindset. If this isn't bluster for the cameras, this dude(?) has a seriously fucked moral compass.

        https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Rn79GV4IF5I
        • Molly 12.1.1.1

          10 April 2023 at 8:01 am

          TBH, that adult comes across as a wilful, spoiled (but desperately unhappy) child. With a child's propensity to unthinkingly inflict harm.

          It was an easy comeback for Dr Phil, but that person's worldview is one that usually delivers misery.
13. Stephen D 13

    9 April 2023 at 3:30 pm

    This might sound trite, but there needs to be a biopic made of this man’s life.

    One way of not forgetting the history, and keeping it alive.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/487615/last-surviving-nuremberg-prosecutor-dies-aged-103
    • joe90 13.1

      9 April 2023 at 7:53 pm

      Amazing man. The goings on over the past year would've been trying Benjamin Ferencz's courage not to be discouraged.

      https://twitter.com/amanpour/status/1515017135373926404

      Lesley Stahl: You are such an idealist.

      Benjamin Ferencz: I don't think I'm an idealist. I'm a realist. And I see the progress. The progress has been remarkable. Look at the emancipation of woman in my lifetime. You're sitting here as a female. Look what's happened to the same-sex marriages. To tell somebody a man can become a woman, a woman can become a man, and a man can marry a man, they would have said, "You're crazy." But it's a reality today. So the world is changing. And you shouldn't– you know– be despairing because it's never happened before. Nothing new ever happened before.

      Lesley Stahl: Ben—

      Benjamin Ferencz: We're on a roll.

      Lesley Stahl: I can't—

      Benjamin Ferencz: We're marching forward.

      Lesley Stahl: Ben? I'm sitting here listening to you. And you're very wise. And you're full of energy and passion. And I can't believe you're 97 years old.

      Benjamin Ferencz: Well, I'm still a young man.

      Lesley Stahl: Clearly, clearly.

      Benjamin Ferencz: And I'm still in there fighting. And you know what keeps me going? I know I'm right.

      https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-the-last-nuremberg-prosecutor-alive-wants-the-world-to-know/
14. lprent 14

    9 April 2023 at 3:50 pm

    I had a little list of fixes and changes for the mobile site to use up some of my holiday time on…

    However it appears that new(ish) owners of the WPTouch plugin have put their website on a recursive redirect and I can't read the guides that I need. So the only thing that I managed to change was the header and "related to" layout.

    Grrrr… Might have to dump the plugin and look for a different way to do it.

    I'll go play a game for a while, then I'll set up a staging site to look at how the current templates do responsive themes.

    I could use Newsroom, which does everything I'd need, or Divi, which almost does it. But I haven't been that happy with their support while supporting people working with those.

    I suspect that the current standard themes will happily do what I want, including the responsiveness on different form factors. The last couple of wordpress releases have been working hard on pushing the block-editor concepts into the site layouts.
    • lprent 14.1

      9 April 2023 at 4:30 pm

      Creating staging site, this may slow down the site.
      • adam 14.1.1

        9 April 2023 at 4:51 pm

        Enjoy yourself, and any time it becomes a drag go play more games. Were adults, will cope if it's not working perfectly.

        
15. Francesca 15

    9 April 2023 at 6:45 pm

    Looks like there are changes afoot in the UK apropos of the Equality Act and its definition of sex.The EHRC says that sex should be defined as biological sex, and this would bring greater legal clarity .

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/kemi-badenoch-is-right-to-review-the-definition-of-sex/

    https://equalityhumanrights.com/en/our-work/news/clarifying-definition-%E2%80%98sex%E2%80%99-equality-act
    • Visubversa 15.1

      9 April 2023 at 8:25 pm

      Men in women's spaces – what could possibly go wrong?

      "It’s scary to hear someone say that women subjected to rape who want a female-only space are bigots who need re-educating during therapy.

      “Pushing a political view on to a woman at a time of profound trauma and crisis is not only inappropriate, unethical and unprofessional… It’s just selfish. That’s how it came across.”

      https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/19509343.outcry-plan-educate-bigoted-rape-survivors-trans-rights/?fbclid=IwAR3KDyskDM0L_-ZHgbtd3o5GSkbrUCn5UyJsBLyQ1tnEOvQUXY_NcjEilqA
16. roblogic 16

    9 April 2023 at 8:46 pm

    Here's a bit of fun. https://politi.kiwi/values/

    People on twitter are complaining that it makes everyone a TOP supporter. I'm a "revolutionary socialist" (true) who should vote for Te Pati Māori, apparently

    
    • weka 16.1

      9 April 2023 at 10:34 pm

      I’m supposed to vote TOP, Labour, Green, in that order 🙄
    • Ed1 16.2

      9 April 2023 at 11:02 pm

      I prefer the Political Compass – it has fewer unclear statements and appears to be more nuanced.
      • SPC 16.2.1

        10 April 2023 at 7:07 am

        It was because of the lack of nuance that one gets herded into the not so sure answer category.
    • Graeme 16.3

      10 April 2023 at 7:23 am

      Interesting that there's no contact or affiliation details on the politi.kiwi site.

      Whole thing reeks of a half arsed and immature push polling attempt by TOP.
      • arkie 16.3.1

        10 April 2023 at 8:18 am

        Politi.kiwi was developed by Robert Calvert: https://calvert.co.nz/

        He has previously worked for National's Topham Guerin ad agency and more recently Jordan Williams' Campaign Company:

        The Campaign Company is providing Groundswell the tools to handle that growth and streamline their effectiveness as rural advocates – including advice on how to turn 'noise' into policy wins.

        https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sponsored-stories/how-to-build-a-force-for-good/ENHBBPVCTFMFFCIKPUETCF3IZM/
        • Graeme 16.3.1.1

          10 April 2023 at 12:02 pm

          Oh.
        • roblogic 16.3.1.2

          10 April 2023 at 9:35 pm

          Whoa. Good find.
17. SPC 17

    9 April 2023 at 9:29 pm

    I got liberal and mixed economy (and slightly more balanced and more moderate – closer to 50/50) and was rated a match for TOP at 94% and Labour at 90.3%.

    I vote Green to keep NACT out (and to encourage some principle in Labour).

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