Open mike 11/10/2023

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, October 11th, 2023 - 49 comments
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49 comments on “Open mike 11/10/2023 ”

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  1. Dennis Frank 1
    11 October 2023 at 6:36 am

    It's been so exciting watching National & Labour do Trumpism at each other:

    In 2018, Donald Trump's advisor Steve Bannon told a journalist his key strategy. "The Democrats don’t matter. The real opposition is the media. And the way to deal with them is to flood the zone with shit." Though neither Labour nor National have quite the same attitude to the media, the strategy is the same. https://www.newsroom.co.nz/labour-and-national-strip-substance-from-campaign

    The flurry of attacks, some with substance and some completely baseless, makes it impossible for voters to tell what's actually wrong.

    Yeah, but why would either party want informed voters?? Surely the system was designed for mass entertainment. As long as both teams provide it, democracy facilitates our corporate msm.

  2. Dennis Frank 2
    11 October 2023 at 6:55 am

    EU creates rules for AI:

    A four-tier structure for responding to the risks posed by artificial intelligence technologies is being proposed by the European Union – the first comprehensive legal framework of its kind in the world. https://www.newsroom.co.nz/playing-regulatory-chess-with-ai

    “At the top tier is what is known as ‘unacceptable risks’, and the EU has identified certain categories of AI systems that it deems unacceptable and therefore they are banned outright,” explains Richard Massey, a senior associate at Bell Gully specialising in consumer law and emerging regulation. “That includes, for example, real-time facial recognition technology in public places.

    The spectre of Big Sister looms. She will be recording your location and behaviour in the most public arenas of life in Aotearoa in x years, where x most likely lies in the range of 10-20 years. Are you concerned by this? X will be influenced by mass naughtiness – the more of that, the less x will become.

    We're looking at the relation between potential and reality here. If necessary, adopt a Bohmian view: the universe produces reality from the realm of potential, so things happen naturally. Gaia provides our deep operational context, which physicists interpret on the basis of the potential/actual dyad, so we got solid ground for deep Green.

    So our trending societal curve encompasses high tech, it's interface with politics, on the basis of natural philosophy. Recall that natural philosophy became science in the 19th century when the word scientist was invented (1838 I vaguely recall). The politics of AI gives Green politicians the opportunities to hit the inside lane – too bad they remain mired in pale/medium Green thinking…

  3. Dennis Frank 3
    11 October 2023 at 7:05 am

    New Guardian poll:

    New Zealand First recorded 8.2% in October’s poll… support stalled for centre-right National, the main opposition party, which recorded 34% of the vote, 0.5 points down from last month. Its support partner, the minor libertarian group Act, slid 2.4 points to 7.9%.

    The centre-left Labour party lifted 3.4 points to 30.3%, an 11th-hour boost after months of persistent slumps in the polls. Support for Labour’s leftwing support parties was steady; the Greens recorded 10.6% of the vote (down 0.4 points from last month) and Te Pāti Māori registered 1.9%.

    Undecided voters made up 3.8% of the tally in the poll of 1,200 eligible voters, which was conducted from 4-8 October – including a period when the Labour prime minister, Chris Hipkins, was isolating with the coronavirus – and had a 2.8% margin of error. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/11/guardian-essential-new-zealand-poll-labour-picks-up-steam-days-out-from-election

    Labour's dead-cat bounce comes in at around 2/3%. Credit the PM for being gung ho.

    • Dennis Frank 3.1
      11 October 2023 at 7:10 am

      They also reported this:

      When asked their view of NZ First holding the balance of power after Saturday’s vote, 48% of respondents said it would be bad for New Zealand; 26% said it would be a good thing. On Peters, 20% felt strongly positive, while 47% were strongly negative.

      Hipkins, a career politician, recorded 44% strongly positive sentiment and 27% strongly negative; the results were 33% strongly positive for Luxon, a former airline chief executive, with 40% strongly negative.

      But respondents again showed a lack of enthusiasm – as in previous Guardian Essential NZ Polls – for the major party leaders, with 42% saying none of the current options for prime minister really appealed to them.

      So you can see the will of the people: none of the above, thanks. We're quite happy milling around in the center of the paddock, doan wanna go nowhere…

      • pat 3.1.1
        11 October 2023 at 7:14 am

        "So you can see the will of the people: none of the above, thanks. We're quite happy milling around in the center of the paddock, doan wanna go nowhere…"

        So you can see the will of the people (in aggregate); none of the above, thanks. We don't want to go where they are leading.

        • PsyclingLeft.Always 3.1.1.1
          11 October 2023 at 7:25 am

          So. Who would you like to lead ? An honest question…as Ive seen mainly the other side of neutral..if not negative..on all of them ?

          Edit : and by that I mean incl /also Labour and Nats etc etc : )

          • pat 3.1.1.1.1
            11 October 2023 at 7:35 am

            Thought that was self evident…there are two (major) parties, one of which will set the path the country will take for the follwing 3 years and neither of those is acceptable to the majority of the voting base.

            The likes of the Greens and Act will slightly colour that direction but only slightly….and NZFirst is a middle finger to all of them.

            They all have feet of clay.

            • PsyclingLeft.Always 3.1.1.1.1.1
              11 October 2023 at 7:44 am

              Thought that was self evident

              Well….not quite so self evident as you presumed. And you still never said…

              Ok. fair enough…I will take that as no one fits your criteria.

              • pat …
                11 October 2023 at 7:47 am

                you appear to be getting it…but its not MY criteria, its a poll of the (potentially) voting public.

                • Dennis Frank …
                  11 October 2023 at 7:52 am

                  Yeah, a snap-shot of that in real-time. Proximity to voting day is the point they seem to be making. Yet even in this tight race, sheeple may stampede in reaction to any msm report of poll results.

                  The Soros reflexivity principle is at play in our democracy game. Just like Lange's market reef-fish spin on a dime.

                • PsyclingLeft.Always …
                  11 October 2023 at 7:52 am

                  Lol. I specifically asked you ! IMO Seems you would sooner snipe from a tower. At all the Political names.

                  Its a choice I suppose.

                  I will keep that in mind.

                  • pat …
                    11 October 2023 at 4:15 pm

                    " I specifically asked you ! IMO Seems you would sooner snipe from a tower. At all the Political names."

                    I make no secret of that…and it would appear that the sentiment is quite widespread.

  4. PsyclingLeft.Always 4
    11 October 2023 at 8:01 am

    The political newcomers spending thousands to influence the election

    If you've been on YouTube, Facebook or Instagram and heard a robot-like voice talking about election issues, it may have come from a group called Vote for Better.

    The group, which is new to politics, has spent between $80,800 and $118,800 on ads about the election campaign on Facebook and Instagram alone in recent weeks.

    Non Partisan? Yeah Riight

    Tim Barry, who fronts the campaign, would not be interviewed. In an email, he said Vote for Better was a non-partisan campaign.

    Vote for Better hasn't pushed for any particular party but its advertising is focused on critiquing the current government. Some of its video ads are narrated with an American-accented artificial intelligence (AI) voiceover.

    Jim Grenon is another publicity-shy promoter.

    Grenon is linked to the NZ News Essentials website, which is dedicated to attacking the Government. Grenon is a Canadian private equity tycoon who made headlines in Canada when he shifted $68.2m to New Zealand while involved in court action with Canada's tax agency.

    And some others who are a bit shy about how much they are funding

    The Taxpayers' Union, Hobson's Pledge, Family First, Julian Batchelor's 'Stop co-governance' and Groundswell are among the issue-based groups.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/election-2023/499861/the-political-newcomers-spending-thousands-to-influence-the-election

  5. Tricledrown 5
    11 October 2023 at 8:09 am

    The left block has 55 seats ACT National 54 NZ first with 11 seats.looks like no tax cuts.Guardian Poll.Big Drop for the right block if it plays out to be true.Winston will be wagging Nationals policy.

    • Roy Cartland 5.1
      11 October 2023 at 8:21 am

      That's a fascinating bit from the Guardian poll. Without NZF, the left is ahead! This is by no means over, don't let yourselves be fooled that it is! ✊

  6. observer 6
    11 October 2023 at 9:46 am

    I'm no great fan of Ryan Bridge but this morning on TV3 he did his job well.

    The question was clear, the answers were not. Repeatedly asked to accept that 2 +2 is 4 not 5, Luxon did what he always does: bluster. Even Bridge got frustrated with the feeble non-answers.

    Luxon is simply not up to the job. Win or lose, he'll be dumped by the Nats.

    Election 2023: Christopher Luxon grilled by AM's Ryan Bridge on whether beneficiaries will be better off under National or Labour | Newshub

    • Rolling-on-Gravel 6.1
      11 October 2023 at 9:55 am

      Absolutely. Chris Luxon seems increasingly more appalling as time goes on…

      Win or lose, he has to go, be rolled by his own party. He with his shitty thinking on benefits and disability and also issues related to LGBTQIA+ and so on, has to go — absolutely.

      He's just plain feckless.

    • AB 6.2
      11 October 2023 at 10:32 am

      Looks like Bridge so much wanted the satisfaction of knowing that beneficiaries would be worse off, that he forgot that Luxon couldn't say it out loud.

  7. Drowsy M. Kram 7
    11 October 2023 at 10:57 am

    Get Our Country Unearned LandLORD Income Back on Track

    How very National in deed – self-serving scammers absolutely in thrall to Mammon.

    Luxon's "new favourite dinosaur"? "The TaxReliefosaurus" – except it's not new, is it Chris?

    Election 2023: Hundreds of landlords to become tax-cut millionaires under National's plan – analysis [10 Oct 2023]
    Willis said beneficiaries will get cost of living help when their rents are lower.

    But Willis admitted that the tax cuts wouldn't lower rents, just ease the increase.

    "It will slow the increase, it will put downward pressure," she said.

    And put upward ‘pressure’ on landLORD income – Nat hands are ‘tied’ buy big donors.

    Party Vote Green – https://www.greens.org.nz/ending_poverty_together

  8. Dennis Frank 8
    11 October 2023 at 11:53 am

    Could Labour's likely future leader get booted from parliament? Yes, according to Toby Manhire: https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/11-10-2023/who-is-in-and-who-is-out-based-on-the-latest-polls-and-a-bit-of-guesswork

    Who misses out? In the scenario we’ve sketched, senior Labour MPs Adrian Rurawhe, Andrew Little, David Parker, Kieran McAnulty and Ginny Andersen all would be gone.

    This exercise – a snapshot of who might be heading to parliament next week – relies chiefly on four polls conducted a couple of weeks before election day. They’re very reputable pollsters (Verian, Reid, Curia, Talbot Mills) but things can change in the lead-up to election day itself. Turnout slumps can affect some parties more than others. And polling is not a perfect science; sometimes they get things wrong. Any number of strange things can happen.

    But if we look at the average across those surveys – which are all reasonably consistent anyway – and take that as the party vote for our hypothesis, then extrapolate that shift in mood to the electorates, while chucking into the brew some of the unique features that apply to those electorates, we can sketch a picture of who would make it to parliament, and who would not.

    His comprehensive analysis looks like hard work done, so credit to him for not being lazy. Seems a sensible method too. If the voters remain consistent to that polling trend and McAnulty gets sent on a holiday Labour will seem bereft! I suspect though that their dead cat bounce will give him a lifeline.

    • Incognito 8.1
      11 October 2023 at 4:59 pm

      [Mod note:

      Yet again, your wheels are spinning on the slippery slope of your own concocted click bait. The relevant paragraph from your link is this:

      Kieran McAnulty has attracted many admirers over the term and is tipped as a future Labour leader. Is that enough to see him hang on to Wairarapa? We’re guessing he’ll just miss out to National’s Mike Butterick.

      In any case, Labour won’t seem as ‘bereft’ as NZF when they lost all their 9 MPs and got booted from Parliament altogether in 2020. Nice try though to stir up negative emotions in others.

      In addition, you failed yet again to indicate that you had modified the text of your copypasta. This lazy and manipulative behaviour must stop.

      No more warnings!]

    • Rolling-on-Gravel 8.2
      11 October 2023 at 7:56 pm

      Dennis… I don't enjoy reading your missives on this site because you frequently in your zeal to be critical of Labour etc, you forget to include the good sides of what it means to have a government like that in power.

      It is pretty hardgoing under Labour, speaking as a disabled person on the benefit, yes, HOWEVER, it DOES NOT try to instil a culture of fear and hatred of beneficiaries compared to National and others.

      Any serious type of left-wing thinking will have to take that into account.

      I also do not like your missives (or similar missives by others) for another reason, it dampens anyone's enthusiasm for contributing to any momentum LAB/GRN/TPM might have.

      An addition of GRN/TPM would make an immense amount of difference to people on benefits' lives, it's not even funny.

      Have some heart and please stop stoking depression and fear in your posts.

      Besides, I would take LAB/GRN/TPM everytime and anyday. It's truly needed for these times.

      • Dennis Frank 8.2.1
        11 October 2023 at 8:03 pm

        Well I sympathise but am sorry you feel that way when I simply write what my conscience requires me to write. I strongly believe realism is the best way to introduce common sense into political commentary. You could even describe my motivation as a sense of duty – to do public service via consciousness-raising.

        What you need to do is accept responsibility for your feelings rather than blame someone else. Has it occurred to you that anyone can modify their feelings?

        • SapphireGem 8.2.1.1
          11 October 2023 at 8:15 pm

          Stop being so condescending. RoG shared their lived experience as a part of a minority group (disabled person on a benefit) that has been absolutely demonised and trashed by the Right historically and through this election campaign. Who do you think you are, telling RoG to "accept responsibility for [their] feelings" – how about you accept responsibility for being patronising and quite frankly insulting? Also, stop positioning yourself as the world-weary voice of reason – it’s tiresome.

          • Dennis Frank 8.2.1.1.1
            11 October 2023 at 8:34 pm

            Get over yourself. Anyone who has suffered trauma has a natural right to acknowledge the same in others. Do try to get a grip, huh? You know, act like a human. You can do it if you try!

            • SapphireGem 8.2.1.1.1.1
              11 October 2023 at 8:35 pm

              What a ridiculous comment. You clearly are angry and don't like being challenged. Does it threaten your fragile ego?

              • Dennis Frank …
                12 October 2023 at 7:56 am

                When people misread online discourse & imput characterisations onto others wrongly, those others will respond by pointing out those errors. The process is entirely natural. Identity politics.

                It's just that you seem unwilling to factor in the effects on other readers when you personalise your commentary. It shifts the mood in the group mind towards discomfort, tediously. No valid cause for being offensive, negative consequences, so don't do it! frown

                • Gemma …
                  12 October 2023 at 9:13 am

                  Dennis, it's obvious that

                  a) You were pontificating.

                  b) Rolling on Gravel (and others) expressed their disagreement with you and shared their experience of what life is like for a disabled person on a benefit under a Right versus Left Government.

                  c) You answered with a condescending reply to Rolling on Gravel.

                  d) I took you to task on it.

                  e) You responded with an angry reply to me.

                  f) I pointed out that you were angry and disliked being challenged.

                  g) You are now trying to other me by implying that my pointing out your defensiveness is negative and offensive.

                  Look, I understand that it's difficult when you've positioned yourself as the all-knowing voice of reason who is exercising their civic duty every time they comment. However, I have encountered this of style of debate before: someone who comes across as wise and avuncular until they are challenged, then they become spiteful and attempt to put the other person out on a limb. Your tactics here are transparent.

                  Have a great day, Dennis, and all the best in the lead-up to what looks to be a very interesting Election Day smiley

                  • Dennis Frank …
                    12 October 2023 at 9:28 am

                    I accept that you see things like that. No problem. However I must reiterate that it's a misread of reality. Again, no problem.

                    Such is typical leftism, and one encounters it onsite here often enough. As a radical centrist, I merely note the behaviour in passing, as if amateur sociology is worth doing. A controlled folly… smiley

      • SapphireGem 8.2.2
        11 October 2023 at 8:12 pm

        Thank you, RoG, for sharing your lived experience of what life is like under Labour as a disabled person on a benefit. As you point out, it's far from perfect, but unlike National, ACT, and NZ First, Labour do not scapegoat and stigmatise beneficiaries, disabled people, and other disadvantaged minority groups in society.

        It's refreshing to hear your frank commentary compared with the pseudo-intellectual, contrarian, pontificating waffle you were responding to, and you're absolutely right—these posturing diatribes dampen down people's enthusiasm and motivation. It's really hard to understand why people describe themselves as coming from the Left when all they want to do is nitpick Labour (and, to a lesser extent, the Greens and TPM) this close to an election, when solidarity and momentum are so important!

        I think a lot of these types of comments come from people who talk the talk but haven't walked the walk of hardship like you have. I have worked in the disability sector for nearly 20 years, and I commend you for sharing your experience and (hopefully) knocking some sense into these frustrating commenters smiley

        • Rolling-on-Gravel 8.2.2.1
          11 October 2023 at 8:38 pm

          Sapphire,

          Thank you so much for the fine work you're doing!

          You sound pretty magnificent yourself.

          Anyway, yeah, I speak because I have observed many times over the years how much the right-wing (and some bleaters) present a horrific picture of people who are beneficiaries that doesn't conform to a lot of known realities and are often malicious in nature.

          Too often, like with Reagan and his infamous welfare queen stereotype in the 80s and from Paula Bennett and George Osbourne, this has meant that right-wing people stretch and imagine vile crap from one person (or even an imaginary person) to paint an ugly picture of all people who are on the benefit, even if sometimes they rhetorically say some people on benefits (disabled people etc) are deserving (which right-wing people rarely actually mean it in practice) and using the "mad and evil" version to sell to the easily stirred people which stokes hatred and apathy as our living standards are brutally (or slowly) cut down, often leading to more poverty and more desperation.

          That's why I am so grateful for the election of Jacinda Ardern's Labour, even if I do have some issues with them, it's been a huge refreshing change compared to the National government and is an attempted continuity with the Clark Government (the best one in my lifetime 🙂 and yes I was on the benefit during it, even before the GFC)

          This is exactly why I need Labour and Greens and Te Pati Māori to win, because that combo has the potential to be the materially best government in my lifetime, exceeding even the Clark Labour Government! 😀

      • Ad 8.2.3
        12 October 2023 at 9:41 am

        RoG I sure ain't going to ask you to 'modify your feelings' and you have my total aroha and support for the tough life you lead. Your comments make a lot of sense.

        "I would take LAB/GRN/TPM everytime and anyday. It's truly needed for these times."

        +1,000 RoG

  9. Herodotus 9
    11 October 2023 at 12:26 pm

    Out of the mouths of baby’s, when discussing the election one member of the family who the environment means everything said at the dinner table – “why should I again vote for the Green Party when TPM are more greatly connected to the environment and have a greater vested interest” hard to agrue with that sentiment 🤔

  10. Poldark 10
    11 October 2023 at 1:01 pm

    Yep Green + Red = Brown

    • Dennis Frank 10.1
      11 October 2023 at 1:30 pm

      Powerful logic, that. Voters immediately think "shit!" Then, "well, there's good shit & bad shit, so it depends". Then they'll wonder on what.

      Such mental exercises are healthy. Important to exercise the brain a little, when you're a mainstreamer. Ups the chances a brainwave could happen.

    • gsays 10.2
      11 October 2023 at 4:55 pm

      When I last saw Michael Franti (Spearhead) live here in Aotearoa, he enthusiastically referred to the crowd as his caramel cousins.

      Caramel means the same as brown (or for some folk black) but is so much more attractive.

  11. Dennis Frank 11
    11 October 2023 at 1:39 pm

    Another reason to prioritise resilience prioritising and planning: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/499887/climate-outlook-for-aotearoa-predicts-rivers-in-the-sky-heatwaves-in-the-sea

    Bigger, heavier 'rivers in the sky' – like the atmospheric river that brought record rainfall to Auckland in January – are on the cards as the planet heats, the latest report on Aotearoa's climate says. Infectious diseases and pests will be more likely to spread, and it's "almost certain" (90 percent) new pests will become established here, especially as parts of the North Island became more suitable for sub-tropical species to thrive.

    That is according to Statistics NZ and the Ministry for the Environment's Our Atmosphere and Climate 2023 report. .. based the current trajectory, where countries are tackling emissions but not fast enough to meet the Paris Agreement target of keeping global heating inside 1.5C-2C, Aotearoa can expect around another 1-1.3C of heating by 2050 on top of what it is already experiencing, it says.

    That's an extremely adverse scenario for many countries – bad enough for here!

  12. Stephen D 12
    11 October 2023 at 8:02 pm

    New Zealand needs one of these.

    https://www.shitrentals.org/

    Rating rentals and landlords.

    Thanks to First Dog on the Moon for bringing it to our attention.

  13. SapphireGem 13
    11 October 2023 at 8:28 pm

    Claire Trevett's commentary on why the polls should be giving National the night terrors: https://archive.ph/3XBGs

  14. mikesh 14
    12 October 2023 at 3:49 pm

    Should the RBNZ be independent, or should we bring it back under government control?

    https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/124725/interest-rates-monetary-policy-always-political-central-banks-opt-back

    • pat 14.1
      12 October 2023 at 3:54 pm

      Depends upon what type of government.

      Would we want our central bank controlled by a corrupt and unaccountable administration?

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