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Open Mike 13/09/2017

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, September 13th, 2017 - 72 comments
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Open mike is your post.

For announcements, general discussion, whatever you choose. The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Step up to the mike …

72 comments on “Open Mike 13/09/2017 ”

  1. swordfish 1

    Colmar Brunton Poll due tomorrow

    Last time the Colmar Brunton – Reid Research sampling period significantly overlapped (late August) = CB had Labour 4 points higher & the Nats 2 points lower than RR

  2. Ed 3

    What’s the chance of a thread on one or all of the following?

    A. Rachel Stewart’s article ‘Dont feel sorry for farmers.’
    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11921404

    B. Al Jazeera’s documentary ‘ Polluted Paradise.’

    C. Bryan Bruce’s documentary ‘Who owns New Zealand?’
    https://www.threenow.co.nz/shows/who-owns-new-zealand-now/S1344-012

  3. The Chairman 5

    Twas a bad day for Labour yesterday.

    It began with an interview on RNZ (which was revealing, exposing their support for the TPP with a housing carve out and their preference of maintaining a surplus over spending more on addressing child poverty). Ardern also said neoliberalism has failed, yet largely ruled out overturning its underpinning of the economy.

    The day ended with a drop in the polls.

    • I beg your pardon they never promised you a rose garden, along with the sunshine there’s got to be a little rain sometimes…

      • The Chairman 5.1.2

        I never expected a “rose garden”, Marty.

        While I’m willing to make concessions as there is no perfect party, it’s become clear from our discussions I’m not willing to lower the bar as far as you.

        As for Labour’s headlining promises, they’re a little misleading. For example, take the headline free education, it equates to only 1 year free in their first term. And as I’ve often pointed out, a number of others also fall short.

        And how is this for contradictory? Jacinda said “Any expectation that we just simply allow that the market to dictate our outcomes for people is where I would want to make sure that we were more interventionist.” Yet, entering into the TPP with only a housing carve out will curtail the Governments ability to intervene in the wider market.

        Are you now going to make excuses and accept this form of double speak?

        • marty mars 5.1.2.1

          If you’re alone and life is making you lonely you can always go downtown…

        • Rosemary McDonald 5.1.2.2

          Giovanni Tiso has hit nail squarely on head….https://bat-bean-beam.blogspot.co.nz/2017/09/the-neoliberalism-question-notes-on.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+BatBeanBeam-AWeblogOnMemoryAndTechnology+(Bat,+Bean,+Beam+-+A+Weblog+on+Memory+and+Technology)

          “The term ‘neoliberal’ is often said to be excessively vague, but its value in this context was in fact to give specificity to Espiner’s line of questioning. Most obviously: would Ardern consider revisiting the Reserve Bank Act, the Public Finance Act or any of the other legislative instruments that have allowed the last four governments to put neoliberal reforms into practice?

          The answer – need I say it – was no. And in the process of the fairly gentle interrogation that followed, the much-vaunted boldness of the Ardern project evaporated. She thinks that climate change is the ‘nuclear-free’ issue of our time, but wouldn’t commit to divesting from coal or even ceasing to issue new licenses for deep-sea oil exploration. She wants to end child poverty, but wouldn’t resile from her predecessor’s foolish commitment to contain spending to 30% of GDP and keep guaranteeing operating surpluses – one of the main causes of the staggering, crippling rise of our household debt – nor does she think that the government needs to seek more revenue through taxation. ”

          and…..

          ” For there really was a window. An opportunity. Instead of playing her part in the political assassination of Metiria Turei, Ardern could have used her new position and her extraordinary popularity to stand by her side. Together, she and Turei could have broken the siege that has prevented beneficiaries – which is to say, a significant portion of the working class – from leading a dignified life and participating in society. Such a decision would have carried its own risks, naturally. But then this is what defines political courage, and it’s nothing if not courage that we desperately need. ”

          I too am struggling with having to limbo low to vote Labour.

          Looking like Two Ticks Green for me….

        • Draco T Bastard 5.1.2.3

          For example, take the headline free education, it equates to only 1 year free in their first term.

          And builds up over time as they can afford it while maintaining the same failed economic system…

          Yet, entering into the TPP with only a housing carve out will curtail the Governments ability to intervene in the wider market.

          Yep. We actually need to drop out of FTAs so that we can start to take back our sovereignty rather than signing up to more of them.

          Labour doesn’t want to scare business by actually promising to do what needs to be done. But, of course, they actually think that the failed ideology of the 19th century works.

      • greywarshark 5.1.3

        Horse manure is supposed to be good for roses too isn’t it?

  4. cleangreen 6

    If this ‘Reid’ poll was ‘doctored’ by Joyce, (I have assessed) there is no way to confirm accuracy .
    We contacted some of these polling companies last year after we looked into the methods used by requesting details from them.

    Results of several polling companies was disturbing.

    We found, it is all based on trust that they are accurate nothing else.

    They confirmed there is no ability for them to conduct any rechecks of voters stated choices on any with these ‘polls’ they told us.

    The same applies to the general election, the electoral commission sent us an email confirming “there no no way we can confirm voters choice was recorded accurately.

    Overseas now many countries are using a ‘Voter Verified Audit Paper Trail’ (VVPAT) voting systems (even with the manual paper voting system we still use) as they use electronic counting of paper votes after we surrender our paper vote at the polling centre, and we have confirmed that is where false recording of votes can take place.

    Here in NZ they only do a sample manual rechecking of a fraction of all votes taken during our General Election System, so there are many flaws left inside our voting system today.

    https://www.verifiedvoting.org/resources/vvpr-legislation/

    So we asked the NZ Electoral Commission to switch to VVPAT and they refused so we are left to take their word for any poll conducted, so we must be wary of this lack of verification from any poll conducted now.

    James Shaw today on TV one said their ‘internal’ polling showed the election will be very tight and every vote will count for them, so they will re-double their door knocking if able.

  5. cleangreen 7

    If it is a National win = ‘we wind up with more poisoned water to drink and swim in’ and ‘truck gridlocked roads’ we will die on.

  6. Ed 8

    If National win, more people die cold and poor on the streets.

  7. Sanctuary 9

    Bill English says some farmers may have to pay 50K for water if Labour win.

    According to a chap on Natrad, if he did, that farmer would be using the same amount of water as 38,000 people. Or to put it another way, 50 such farmers would use more water than the entire city of Auckland.

    Apparently, some dairy farmers on the dry plains of Canterbury use over three million litres of water per annum.

    In total, agriculture uses 80% of all fresh water consumed in New Zealand. TIME TO PAY UP FARMER BROWN.

    • Ed1 9.1

      I thought the figure on Nat Radio this morning was an extra $70,000 for a farm (or was it $350,000?)- and he was concerned that the reduction in income would reduce the amount of purchasing in the local community. Imagine the positive effect of increasing the minimum wage!

      • The decrypter 9.1.1

        The answer is to stop farming and get a credit in cash for the water you could have used.

        • greywarshark 9.1.1.1

          Smart, being paid for not using, or farming even. A useful subsidy. Didn’t they do this in Britain at one time?

          • lprent 9.1.1.1.1

            If you want to see why not to do it, have a look at the last 50 60 years of fallow farming subsidies in the US.

            Probably the longest blackmail experience that I have ever read about and one that has been distorting their agricultural practices without changing them in the intended manner significantly.

            The only link I have was the history book I was reading about it in

            • greywarshark 9.1.1.1.1.1

              It might be a practical way of easing the b…s out of using more than rationed water, and overstocking! Or shorten their pipes surgically.

      • cleangreen 9.1.2

        Ed in a morning report on RNZ an expert said in ‘real terms’ now all these farms that use water ‘irrigation’ use 80% of our total water in NZ.

        I am betting we will not hear this staggering fact on any other MSM today and anytime till after election time.

    • mauī 9.2

      On that recent Polluted Paradise Al Jazeera documentary they showed one typical dairy farmer in Canterbury who they calculate uses 12% of the total water Wellington does each year. Jaw dropping.

      • gsays 9.2.1

        My dairy farming neighbour reckons 200 litres a day the cows can drink.
        Plus watering crops, plus hose out of shed, plus rinsing milking gear….

        • Blackcap 9.2.1.1

          If a cow drinks 30 litres a day (about avg) and you have a herd of 350 cows, that is 10,500 litres a day just on drinking. Per annum that is 3.8 million litres. That at a 2 cent per litre levy would cost a farmer $76,000 per year extra.

          This is excluding all other water.

          • lprent 9.2.1.1.1

            So? What is your point? Apart from merely spinning a meaningless pile of cowshit.

            For just myself and my partner I personally spend more than $1200 per year on getting drinking water and dealing with waste water. It is a resource that we use and for which we pay for.

            The business that I work for pays for their water and sewerage for nearly 200 employees at a similar rate. Their bill would be heading up towards half a million dollars annually.

            My point is that farmers should do the same. They should pay for the use of the common property of NZ.

            If your business model and processes aren’t sustainable without a ‘free’ resource that you don’t care for properly and that others wind up having to pay for, then you should shut down the business. We aren’t prepared to give you that charity anymore bearing in mind the state you have been leaving the waterways and aquifers in.

            If nothing else, putting price on your ‘free’ resource should cause you to start treating it like any other business input. Figuring out ways to use it more efficiently and without causing problems to those downstream.

            Updated: And I missed the 3 orders of magnitude of cost that blackops lied about…..

            • greywarshark 9.2.1.1.1.1

              Brilliant comment lprent
              I suggest we each keep a copy of it and remind ourselves of the basis of the argument regularly.

          • Psych nurse 9.2.1.1.2

            I thought the proposed figure for water charges was to be per cubic metre which would be 2 cents per 1000 litres, not per litre, so about 7,600 dollars not 76,000 dollars.

            • Psycho Milt 9.2.1.1.2.1

              It’s even more stupid – at $1 for 50,000 litres, you’d be looking at $76 per year for 3.8 mil litres of water. The fact is that farming is using so much water that such a nominal charge still adds up to plenty of money for improving water quality.

          • Psycho Milt 9.2.1.1.3

            Per annum that is 3.8 million litres. That at a 2 cent per litre levy would cost a farmer $76,000 per year extra.

            Yeah, that would be ridiculous, right?

            Howver, Labour is talking 1 to 2 cents per thousand litres, not per litre. It would be nice if the media made it a bit clearer that we’re talking about $76 per year, not $76,000. You’ve been reading too much National bullshit.

            http://www.labour.org.nz/fact_check_water_royalty

          • gsays 9.2.1.1.4

            C’mon blackcap, that’s not cricket.

    • Matt 9.3

      It is intended that the tax will only be on people who are taking for irrigation so the average farmer who isn’t doing this is going to be just fine. It is the people farming in a way that is unsuited to the local environment and therefore creating a burden on that environment that will finally have to pay a small amount for something that they have polluted in the name of profit for far too long.

      Water will be the new oil. We must do all we can to protect our clean water and take the maximum benefit as a country not as individuals for it’s use.

  8. ianmac 10

    English often laments the urban rural divide. Yet who exactly is creating and promoting the divide? English is and it is a cynical ploy.

    • Another canard from the same right-wing stable as “This country used to have great race relations until the left started encouraging Maori to complain” and “Employment relations would be great if the unions weren’t instigating trouble.”

  9. millsy 11

    Well, that was over quickly. I feel like I won the lottery on Friday only to piss it all against a wall by Monday to be back where I started.

    A forth term for National will break a lot of people. If you don’t own a mortgage-free house or farm or earn more than $60000 a year, then expect your living standards to slide, as National lowers wages and social spending.

  10. Starbuck 12

    A fourth term for National won’t be so bad, even Jacinda said NZ is doing pretty good, but theres still plenty of twists and turns still to come in this election I fel

    • lprent 12.1

      …even Jacinda said NZ is doing pretty good…

      Always nice to find a dumbarse troll who can’t quote properly and can’t link to the source of their quote. The key word that you missed out as you lied by omission was economically.

      And I’d argue even that – I think that she is being charitable.

      Because it looks to me like it is currently being sustained artificially on levels of nett inwards migration and inwards debt to pay for excessive property prices rather than on anything of sustainable use. Essentially my business trained sensors are detecting a ponzi scheme perpetuated by National to produce good figures without any particular substance.

      And yet as she also points out we have a rapidly growing homeless problem, an epidemic of suicides, pollution, a massive sustained under investment in critical infrastructure and housing, inequality, and a large number of other issues that will cause the economy to tank in the medium term.

      None of which National has shown ANY real inclination to change. Instead we just get the spewing of lies from Nick Smith or Steven Joyce, ineffectually supported by their mate Bill.

      If you want to comment here, then I suggest you do better. We aren’t a place for stupid astroturfing parrots.

  11. Karen 13

    Numerous people have asked Newshub to provide the figures for undecided voters from their poll last night. They are ignoring all requests. Why?

    Boonman‏ @boonman 30m30 minutes ago

    “Still waiting for @patrickgowernz OR @NewshubNZ OR @NewshubPolitics to tell us the number of undecided voters from the poll last night”

    • swordfish 13.1

      Newshub RR have always been the least methodologically transparent of Pollsters

      In stark contrast to Colmar Brunton

      Nevertheless this obsession with Undecided voters = clutching at straws
      (Like weka’s

      but if we ignore the poll from last night for a moment, it seems likely that there will be a change of government.

      )

      • Karen 13.1.1

        I would just like to know whether there is a difference in undecided between their last few polls and I find it odd that they are refusing to provide that information.

  12. logie97 14

    By my reckoning New Zealand’s most militant “union” by a good margin would be Federated Farmers. Any chance of them having their wings clipped …

  13. Eco maori 15

    I like Tauraga the people are nice and friendly you can grow vegetables all year round its nice and warm being close to the sea and located were it’s.
    Tauranga is a jewel in our beautiful country.
    But I remember seeing sand on the road in the Mount and flooding was just about to happen the residents of Tauranga did not get flooded out this time.
    But with OUR ocean warming up and the fact that heat is energy in the near future there will be major flooding and damage to the residents property’s.
    This scenario is a when and not a if so WE must plan for the worst weather that could hit Tauranga and if WE don’t plan for climate change the residents of Tauranga will be in the shit.
    Now I no most Tauranga residents adore
    Winston Peters but I say that because cause Winston doesn’t have a plan to mitigate climate change that you people of Tauranga will be up a creek with out a paddle when the next BIG storm or BIG hurricane strikes as a lot of Tauranga is just above sea level and the sea has a huge and powerful force.
    I did Not speak against Winston until he showed that he would side with national and if national and Winston get into parliament there will be no planning for climate change and no plans to protect you the residents of Tauranga or your properties.
    I am not letting you no this out of malice for Winston as this is not the way I work I’m letting you people no out of concern for your future and your safety. So I plead for your safety don’t vote Winston in or national because national is hiding the climate report they don’t care for your safety. So vote for the anyone but the two party’s that are ignoring climate change it is your future and your grandchildren future your voting for.

    • JanM 15.1

      Tauranga may be a jewel, Eco maori, but it still votes National 🙁

      • greywarshark 15.1.1

        Did you not read right through JanM?

        • JanM 15.1.1.1

          Yes I did – sorry if I wasn’t clear – I meant I think they will still vote National – they are quite a conservative ‘head-in-the-sand’ society like a lot of the Waikato/Bay of Plenty region

  14. greywarshark 16

    Thinking of business and why we have to keep on doing things to nurse our businesses along as they are always doing it hard, can’t find workers etc. Then we can’t afford to pay ordinary workers much while the people at the top live on the fat of the land for just doing a job that requires extra skills.

    How about this for wage progression -Bottom under $40,000, few extra skills $60,000 (50% more), advanced experience $80,000, top managers $110,000 and Chief executive $150,000. But someone I know who I think is in human resources is getting $140,000 and is probably smart but just at keeping up with the others. So we are going backwards in NZ with he middle class going up or some getting lost and going down, the middle class is under pressure in western countries. The lower class is increasingly the precariat. Social mobility is now hard-won, not encouraged. Mainly to keep inflation low. To satisfy those with money to invest?
    Hardly, how does low inflation, low interest help old age pensioners who were counting on interest to provide extras to the benefit?

    If we are going to go backwards let’s try to put money into the regions’ pockets that stays there. Go back to where we encouraged small domestic industries which then branched out into export of excellent products. Let’s build a basecourse of solid small initiative ‘pop ups’ all over the country shouting look at us New Zealanders come and visit your own, and try us out. Nurture regional areas of excellence in what they do best. Ricardo economics within a domestic framework not over-extended as under free market machinations hand in hand with nasty neolib.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantagehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage
    The theory of comparative advantage is an economic theory about the work gains from trade for individuals, firms, or nations that arise from differences in their factor endowments or technological progress.[1]

    In an economic model, agents have a comparative advantage over others in producing a particular good if they can produce that good at a lower relative opportunity cost or autarky price, i.e. at a lower relative marginal cost prior to trade.[2] One does not compare the monetary costs of production or even the resource costs (labor needed per unit of output) of production.

    Instead, one must compare the opportunity costs of producing goods across countries.[3] The closely related law or principle of comparative advantage holds that under free trade, an agent will produce more of and consume less of a good for which they have a comparative advantage.[4]

    David Ricardo developed the classical theory of comparative advantage in 1817 to explain why countries engage in international trade even when one country’s workers are more efficient at producing every single good than workers in other countries.

    He demonstrated that if two countries capable of producing two commodities engage in the free market, then each country will increase its overall consumption by exporting the good for which it has a comparative advantage while importing the other good, provided that there exist differences in labor productivity between both countries.[5][6] Widely regarded as one of the most powerful[7] yet counter-intuitive[8] insights in economics, Ricardo’s theory implies that comparative advantage rather than absolute advantage is responsible for much of international trade.

    David Ricardo – Investopedia
    http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/david-ricardo.asp
    David Ricardo was a classical economist known for his Iron Law of Wages, labor theory of value, theory of comparative advantage and theory of rents. David Ricardo and several other economists also simultaneously and independently discovered the law of diminishing marginal returns.

    • Andrea 16.1

      “Hardly, how does low inflation, low interest help old age pensioners who were counting on interest to provide extras to the benefit?”

      And yet we still see the relentless promotion of Kiwisaver… Not to mention the eternal damnation of pension-age ‘Boomers’ whose little bits of money add to the income of shops and services.

      Unless successive governments can protect the investments made by the citizens – what’s the use of saving for your retirement, eh? You’ll end up like Don Brash’s pa after he’d sold the farm and the inflation rate took off. A comfortable nest egg turned into less than an average year’s pay.

      Doesn’t pay to be prudent or thrifty.

  15. Pete 17

    National has presided over the death of kids’ learning in New Zealand being important.

    Real learning, proper learning, according to who and what the children are themselves , and capable of, have given way to checklists, targets and percentages.

    What the kids could be and the type people we need in the world are incidental to charts and graphs.

    When the teacher force is completely dumbed down to play the dumb game, and those who should be the leaders in the profession are singing from the Tolley/Parata/Kaye song sheet, we are totally stuffed. We are well on the way to that already.

    Education in that sense is not an issue in the election yet that to me that is the real issue of the times. Are we to give Kaye the hammer and nails again to drive into the coffin they have fashioned? Also are we to give henchman Seymour a nail gun again?

    • JanM 17.1

      As a retired ece teacher, I spend time as a volunteer in my grandson’s new entrant classroom. It breaks my heart (and that of the experienced teacher)

  16. cleangreen 18

    Press cover of Winston in Gisborne yesterday.

    http://gisborneherald.co.nz/localnews/2990284-135/on-the-hustings-in-gisborne-with

    Clearly committed to regional rail & restoring the regions.

    September 13, 2017
    gisborneherald.co.nz
    On the hustings in Gisborne with Winston Peters
    by Wynsley Wrigley Published: September 13, 2017 10:33AM

    ON THE ATTACK: New Zealand First leader Winston Peters claims Gisborne does not have the ear of Wellington and “the old parties”. In Gisborne yesterday, Mr Peters said New Zealand First would provide financial support to regional airports, including Gisborne’s, and support reinstatement of the Gisborne to Napier rail line.

    NEW Zealand First supports reinstatement of the Gisborne to Napier rail line and state funding of regional airports such as Gisborne’s, said party leader Winston Peters when he was in Gisborne yesterday.
    He told the Herald that Land Transport funding of Railways of National Importance, such as the Gisborne line, had long been party policy, but was disappointed that many Gisborne people would not know that.
    “We will provide much-needed funding for regional airports owned by local authorities to help pay for infrastructure improvements and to meet safety and amenity standards,” he said.
    “Unlike big airports they don’t have large revenues to help pay for the things they need. Every OECD country subsidises regional airports and air services, except New Zealand.
    “Even the USA, home of the market, knows and does that. These countries know airports are crucial for communications, business development, air ambulances, and tourism, and must be supported by central government.”
    Mr Peters said the sky around Gisborne was “darkening” because of the “old parties”.
    “Politicians come here and say what they want to do for you. I’ve seen years of them doing stuff all for you. I see Gisborne and what it’s become.
    “It still has the same people, resources and assets. It has everything, but it does not have the ear of Wellington.”
    Mr Peters said nothing could be more compelling in his argument than closure of Gisborne’s rail line.

    New Zealand First supported it from beginning
    “No one put their hand up to defend it other than one party: New Zealand First. Not now, not last month, not last year, but when it happened and since then.
    “You give us a chance in this campaign, we are going to open it.”
    He said no treasury analysis was required. No transport infrastructure was efficient everywhere. There could be both inefficient and efficient sectors, which together made a successful operation.
    If inefficient areas were wound back, efficient areas were affected because overall numbers diminished.
    He said regional airports were part of the national grid.
    “If the United States and other OECD countries understand that, why not New Zealand?”
    Mr Peters said other regional airports to benefit from the policy included Kaitaia, Kerikeri, Whangarei, Kaitaia, Chatham Islands, Hokitika, Masterton, Taupo, Timaru, Westport, Whakatane and Whanganui.
    “Eleven airports are being told to put up or shut up. This is astonishing. Who do they think goes through Auckland Airport? A lot of them are going to places like Gisborne, they all add up.”
    Public pronouncements
    At a public meeting at the Cosmopolitan Club Mr Peters said:
    • New Zealand First would ensure continuity of forestry supply for local processors, and keep forestry sustainable.
    • The New Zealand Forestry Service would be reinstated. “This plan is so good the Labour Party swiped it a few days ago.”
    • New Zealand First is committed to a massive campaign to seal rural roads, improve road quality and double-lane bridges where sensible. “We want Gisborne to have a fully co-ordinated transportation strategy with road, rail and coastal shipping.”
    • New Zealand First would return the GST paid by international tourists in this region for tourism infrastructure and roads, and to stimulate job training and opportunities.
    • Any water rights for exports in this region would pay serious royalties, which would return to Gisborne.
    • New Zealand First will help exporters, farmers and others by fixing the Reserve Bank Act.
    • Devaluation of the dollar would help export-orientated provinces like Gisborne.

  17. Eco maori 19

    I no I’m of topic but I have to say this.
    The only way we are going to get the state to heal is not a commission’s investigation. We need someone to champion the issue of the harm done to those people in state care and use people power and start the court process and sue the state for the injustices that happened to those people

  18. greywarshark 20

    It could be. I think it has been done in other countries. This bunch don’t see treating all people with care and hopefully with respect as part of their core duties.
    The job of pollies is wheeling and dealing for their class, which they have established over the last 30 years since the idea of equality was set aside as an impediment to business.

  19. eco maori 21

    I have spoken to some of the wealthy and there mind set is totally different to mine.
    They don’t want to shear there lollies they don’t care about our poor and vulnerable people they don’t agree with my thoughts which are that these people are OURS they are part of our SOCIETY we are all kiwis we are all humans .
    So we have the responsibility to care for these people and we have the responsibility to make sure that the government that gets elected will care for these peoples future even if they are brown white or yellow they are our people to care for.
    Now these people that don’t care about there neighbors or the environment well 99 % of these people will vote and in my view they are about 20 % of the population and the elderly will be about 20 % and 99 % of these people will vote. Now the elderly care about our poor but they don’t like change as they will be worried that change means hardship for them. So these two groups of our people will vote national and NZ first if only 60 % of the total population vote . Then these two groups of people are going to decide our whole country fate which will be shit. So every one that has left leaning principals
    please do your duty to yourself the poor vulnerable and your children and go and vote for any party except national and NZ first This is our country and we must vote to clean up nationals MESS.

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