Open mike 14/06/2024

48 comments on “Open mike 14/06/2024 ”

• Comment on post

1. Bearded Git 1

   14 June 2024 at 7:17 am

   We are so lucky to have MMP in NZ. George Monbiot explains here that really only the Greens have effective social and climate-change friendly policies in the UK. But under the useless and long discredited FPP system still used in the UK the Greens will be lucky to get 4 seats out of 650 seats in the House of Commons in the upcoming election, meaning their effect on legislation is minimal.

   https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jun/12/green-party-manifesto-labour-wealth-tax-public-services-keir-starmer

   Contrast this with MMP in NZ where the Greens 12.6 per cent vote gives them 15 seats out of 123.

   Reply
2. newsense 2

   14 June 2024 at 8:32 am

   Geez mate, I wanna find a reason to vote for you, but you sound more like a fixer for when the Nats drift back to the centre after they f- things than a Labour leader.

   I want a leader who stands in the house sure of Labour values and not appeasement of shirking and anti-science by this bunch of big business beneficiaries. Why are we subsidising landlords, tobacco companies and farmers who avoid climate responsibilities?

   While you remain unsure I can’t vote Labour.

   http://norightturn.blogspot.com/2024/06/hipkins-is-still-useless.html

   Reply
3. PsyclingLeft.Always 3

   14 June 2024 at 9:17 am

   In a speech to Local government New Zealand on Thursday night, Chris Bishop said he wanted government grant funding to become a last resort for councils.

   "And you've seen Simeon Brown recently launch the Pothole Prevention Fund because we've been underinvesting in maintenance on our roads, and the speech signals that we're looking at things like congestion pricing to make better use of the existing roads that we have around the country, and manage demand on our roads.

   "That's the point of the speech – to change some of the way we do things."

   Which would mean more user-pays.

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/519513/we-can-t-buy-our-way-out-chris-bishop-on-infrastructure-funding-and-user-pays

   Finally ! So HEAVY trucks..and their also associated heavy trailers will be paying for the damage they actually cause ?

   Small rural town Ratepayers (and others) will be happy their streets/roads will be paid for by those who do the most damage !

   Reply
   • Bill Drees 3.1

     14 June 2024 at 12:27 pm

     It's chilling to be reminded that Simeon Brown has actual influence on policy.

     Reply
   • gsays 3.2

     14 June 2024 at 12:28 pm

     Rest assured it will users that don't have a lobby group that will be paying.

     The trucking industry is untouchable in this country.

     Reply
4. Joe90 4

   14 June 2024 at 9:53 am

   Marvelous.

   @ActionMovieKid

   I never knew this entire scene was directly quoting an actual former US president.</em

   https://x.com/ActionMovieKid/status/1801002617436348710

   (context:https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/06/10/trump-sharks-vegas-nevada-speech/74042419007/)

   Reply
5. mikesh 5

   14 June 2024 at 10:54 am

   Using Chromium on a Raspberry Pi, and then on a tablet using Firefox, I have both times received a warning that the site is insecure, this site may be fake. Is this likely to be a scam.

   Reply
   • lprent 5.1

     14 June 2024 at 12:38 pm

     Fixed. Operator error complicated by sleeping in*.

     I left the cdn.thestandard.org.nz pointed to the cdn supplier after I'd changed it to use cdn2. Forgot to shift it back to the server.

     It broke the automatic generation of the SSL cert. Fixed it at the DNS and regenerated the certs. Should clear up after the caches expire.

     • Having fun being newly partially and probably temporarily retired. Kiwisaver landed in my account yesterday. Been having fun writing code without deadlines and taking time to examine language features. Up at 0430 for an idea. Back to bed at 0745. Up again at 1155. Hopefully I'll get a job shortly, hopefully before the first full payment of super on the 18th, but probably whenever National's artificially generated business confidence recession wanes a bit.

     Reply
     • mikesh 5.1.1

       14 June 2024 at 4:10 pm

       Thanks.

       Reply
6. Tony 6

   14 June 2024 at 11:27 am

   I got the same warning,

   Reply
7. gsays 7

   14 June 2024 at 12:26 pm

   Some food for thought in this interview.

   Especially the more strident amongst us with a black and white view.

   I get the bully who harassed Maureen Pugh the other day may have been het up the government at large but he was definitely out if order

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018942676/does-new-zealand-have-a-global-responsibility-to-mine-more-locally

   Reply
8. SPC 8

   14 June 2024 at 1:17 pm

   $50B to Ukraine from the interest on the frozen Russian money ($300B).

   https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cllldqyg19ro

   Reply
   • bwaghorn 8.1

     14 June 2024 at 4:06 pm

     Why not just use the $300 billion?

     Reply
     • SPC 8.1.1

       14 June 2024 at 4:13 pm

       I suspect it is being left for claim of reparations – rebuild when there is peace.

       Reply
     • Michael P 8.1.2

       16 June 2024 at 12:02 am

       The interest on the frozen assets is being used as collateral for the $50 billion in loans, they aren't just giving them the interest.

       If they just gave the interest (or the assets) to Ukraine that would be theft. Although I'm positive they will be drafting laws in the meantime that will eventually allow them to confiscate those assets.

       This is the view of course if you look at the world with rose tints on. The other view is that not in a million years would the financial institutions that currently hold those assets give them up willingly. They won't even allow the interest to be used as collateral unless the loan is guaranteed by the US government.

       As usual with anything money related, the banks always win.

       Reply
       • SPC 8.1.2.1

         16 June 2024 at 8:39 am

         The BBC article says that the interest itself is being used.

         Can you cite your source?

         Reply
9. SPC 9

   14 June 2024 at 1:47 pm

   National has been reducing support to children with disability.

   https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/disability-sector-appalled-by-sudden-restrictions-on-support-funding-it-makes-my-blood-boil/5XSXAWKARRGXZIJAS3K4XVV2MQ

   Also to state schools

   The disestablished roles included people involved in work that helps schools with children with disabilities and with projects such as free school lunches that tackle inequities for Māori and Pacific children.

   The proposed new structure did not appear to include any nutrition or food safety roles.

   The system delivery team charged with funding and supporting schools and early learning services would drop from 177 to 106 roles with some jobs moved to other divisions and only 30 occupied roles axed.

   In the learning support division, which supports children with disabilities, seven occupied and 11 vacant positions, most of them advisers, would be cut and two created

   https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/education-ministry-cuts-roles-supporting-disabled-kids-among-those-proposed-to-be-axed/6ES4IXUXUVEJ3PFOXDETR35PTI/

   However it is supporting (restoring) charter schools and boosting specialist schools

   The Government is increasing the number of specialist classrooms for students with additional needs.

   It's funding $89 million as part of this year's Budget towards redeveloping and increasing specialist facilities for students with high needs. Under the funding, three specialist schools in poor condition will be upgraded and 17 special classrooms on host school sites – aka satellite classrooms – will be added.

   Sommerville Special School's redevelopment will include 22 new teaching spaces with connecting walkways and canopies, more parking and fresh building and infrastructure to house the new co-funded hydrotherapy pools and equipment.

   "A report recently released by the Education Review Office (ERO) highlights that some of our most vulnerable learners are in classrooms that are in a terrible condition," Stanford said.

   "I was horrified to learn about the unacceptable state of specialist school property and the long wait lists of more than 650 children, following significant underinvestment in maintenance and growth."

   The Government will also include specialist schools and satellite classrooms in network planning for the first time.

   "A specialist schools work programme is also underway to ensure children get the critical services they need. This work is part of the Government's six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system," Stanford said.

   https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2024/06/government-to-improve-and-increase-number-of-specialist-classrooms.html

   This indicates a clear direction to move from state to either charter or specialist schools.

   Reply
   • Michael P 9.1

     16 June 2024 at 12:12 am

     "The proposed new structure did not appear to include any nutrition or food safety roles."

     Hmmm, let's see…. Make sure the unprocessed food is good quality and includes protein, along with some fresh fruit and veges.

     Make sure that whoever is turning that unprocessed food into lunches (i.e making sandwiches and cutting the fruit / veges) wash their hands first.

     Problem solved. No need to create a multitude of unnecessary jobs and layers of bureaucracy.

     Children in the 60's, 70's and beyond managed to survive without all of these so called experts.

     Reply
     • SPC 9.1.1

       16 June 2024 at 8:30 am

       No one to oversee the supply … parents can be trusted, locals can be but centralised suppliers … when there is no regulatory standard check?

       Replacing an $8 a hot meal with a $3 meal – a day old sandwich (centralised supply) and piece of fruit. Protein … and other nutrition? Trust David Seymour?

       Reply
10. adam 10

    14 June 2024 at 1:56 pm

    Should we all freak out?

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-saudi-petrodollar-pact-ends-after-50-years/ar-BB1o29sn

    Probably a little.

    And no before anyone thinks the yen or the rupee is the replacement, it will not be.

    It's just that Saudi Arabia have let the 50 year deal slide.

    So they can sell oil in yen, pounds, euro's, rupee and dollars.

    Reply
    • SPC 10.1

      14 June 2024 at 2:19 pm

      The petrodollar agreement, formalized after the 1973 oil crisis, stipulated that Saudi Arabia would price its oil exports exclusively in U.S. dollars and invest its surplus oil revenues in U.S. Treasury bonds. In return, the U.S. provided military support and protection to the kingdom. This arrangement was a win-win situation for both; the U.S. gained a stable source of oil and a captive market for its debt, while Saudi Arabia secured its economic and overall security.

      Oil has diminished as a share of the world economy.

      That leaves open the issue of Treasury Bonds because of rising debt – currently 30 year home loans at 7%.

      Reply
11. Danyl Strype 11

    14 June 2024 at 2:17 pm

    It's 40 years today since a punch drunk (and actually drunk) Muldoon announced the snap election that led to the start of the silent coup by the Rogernomes and Ruthenomes. I've posted some relevant links and commentary here;

    https://mastodon.nzoss.nz/@strypey/112611354663649162

    I was a child in the 1980s and most people my age and younger have been swimming in the neoliberal kool-aid all our lives. It's essential to mark anniversaries like this and to point to rigorously researched documentation of what was changed, the claims about what the changes would achieve, and what actually happened.

    Classic example; the corporatisation and privatisation of intercity transport will lead to a thriving competitive market which will drive prices down and quality up. We now have a monopoly train company, 2 inter-island ferry services, only one of which can carry trains (and only one aging ferry in their fleet), and a virtual monopoly on intercity buses. Prices are astronomical – especially for trains – and whole regions not served by public transport at all (eg Westland and Buller).

    If anyone wants to help with research and writing for an website that exposes these political-economic realities, and debunks the corporatist kool-aid the current government are clearly still drinking, please reach out.

    Reply
    • Anne 11.1

      14 June 2024 at 5:30 pm

      1984 should be writ large on the NZ historical calendar of this country.

      I recently read some articles about the 1984 election and contrary to what is generally understood, Rogernomics was not a preordained political coup. In fact it started out as just a response to Muldoonism, but over time Roger Douglas and co. began to see it as a tool which they could use to alter the course of history. They believed for the better. They were mostly wrong.

      It should also be remembered that 1984 arguably saw the first terrorist act on NZ soil. I refer to the Trades Hall bombing in March. I have also been reading up on that affair and it looks to me like it was the work of a small group of people. They were not only ideologically opposed to Trade Unions. but they also had strong pro-nuclear sentiments. In other words, it was a political act. Unfortunately I can say no more than that at this time.

      Reply
      • Belladonna 11.1.1

        14 June 2024 at 5:34 pm

        Looks like there were a number of earlier violent acts of protest (terrorism) in NZ.

        https://teara.govt.nz/en/terrorism-and-counter-terrorism/page-1

        Not to mention the attempt to assassinate the Queen in 1981 – depends on whether you regard him as a lone nutter, or a political terrorist…..

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_John_Lewis

        Or the 1982 attempt to blow up the Wanganui computer – which was definitely a political act.
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wanganui_Computer_Centre_bombing

        Reply
        • adam 11.1.1.1

          15 June 2024 at 12:26 am

          Or the 1982 attempt to blow up the Wanganui computer – which was definitely a political act.

          Totally disagree that it was an act of terrorism.

          Neil Roberts chose to walk away when he found out people were in the building and kill himself.

          To call Neil a terrorist is just Tory propaganda.

          Reply
          • joe90 11.1.1.1.1

            15 June 2024 at 9:41 am

            Neil Roberts chose to walk away

            No he didn't. He tried to kill security workers.

            

            What was then the Federal Hotel at 2 Taupo Quay, 250m from 3 Park Place where Roberts detonated his IED, was a late-opener catering to shift workers.

            The explosion broke hotel windows and terrified hotel staff and patrons and others in the vicinity were traumatised by the sight of Roberts' body parts scattered around the area.

            Reply
            • weka 11.1.1.1.1.1

              15 June 2024 at 9:43 am

              what's the evidence that he intended to kill security workers?

              Reply
              • joe90 …

                15 June 2024 at 9:54 am

                Security were on the other side of that demolished door. When queried through the intercom, Roberts detonated his IED.

                Reply
                • adam …

                  15 June 2024 at 3:17 pm

                  Not what they told me. They told me he freaked out, that people were there. And walked away, then he blew up himself up. If he had done it at the door, there would have been deaths.

                  Reply
                  • joe90 …

                    15 June 2024 at 3:34 pm

                    It was a national data centre, not a fucking dairy, and it was designed to keep men with .303's and improvised explosive devices out.

                    Reply
                    • adam …

                      15 June 2024 at 5:17 pm

                      Have you talked to anyone there, or is this just feelings your running with?
        • weka 11.1.1.2

          15 June 2024 at 8:57 am

          I'm pretty sure there were terrorist acts during colonisation too.

          Reply
          • alwyn 11.1.1.2.1

            16 June 2024 at 3:05 pm

            I suppose you could class Hone Heke's cutting down flagpoles as being Terrorism couldn't you?

            Reply
            • Ad 11.1.1.2.1.1

              16 June 2024 at 3:22 pm

              Our truest and greatest terrorist was Te Rauparaha, a true raping, slaving mass murderer.

              Maybe Te Atiawa don't feel that way but the entire South Island iwi do.

              Reply
        • Anne 11.1.1.3

          15 June 2024 at 10:03 am

          From Britannica:

          Terrorism, the calculated use of violence to create a general climate of fear in a population and thereby to bring about a particular political objective. Terrorism has been practiced by political organizations with both rightist and leftist objectives, by nationalistic and religious groups, by revolutionaries, and even by state institutions such as armies, intelligence services, and police.

          https://www.britannica.com/topic/terrorism

          Granted, that is wide ranging. However I think most people recognise it as being politically and/or ideologically motivated acts of violence.

          However that wasn't the purpose of my comment @ 11.1. It was to point out that 1984 should go down as a pivotal year in NZ history.

          Reply
          • Belladonna 11.1.1.3.1

            15 June 2024 at 10:24 am

            Granted, that is wide ranging. However I think most people recognise it as being politically and/or ideologically motivated acts of violence.

            All of which had happened in NZ well before the 1984 Trades Union bombing.

            You pivoted from the OP point of the transformational 1984 election to associate it with the "first terrorist act on NZ soil"

            It should also be remembered that 1984 arguably saw the first terrorist act on NZ soil. I refer to the Trades Hall bombing in March.

            You were wrong.

            Reply
            • Anne 11.1.1.3.1.1

              15 June 2024 at 11:03 am

              Why do you always have to take an adversarial approach to anything certain people may say here?

              I should not have to point out the reason I used the word "arguably" in my original comment. It should be obvious. "NZ's first terrorist act" was a common description in the years following the incident, but there is some disagreement about that. Fair enough.

              I gather you do not agree 1984 was an historically important “pivotal” year for NZ. 🙄

              Edit: Oh and I did no such “pivot”. That was your chosen negative interpretation. You are wrong. I was extending the reason why I believe 1984 was such an important year and the fallout continues.

              Reply
              • Belladonna …

                15 June 2024 at 5:57 pm

                So – let's hear your argument. Why do you think that the TU bombing was the first act of terrorism on NZ soil? What was significantly different about it to the other 'arguably' terrorist acts which preceded it?

                I think that 1984 was an incredibly important year, politically – and was the beginning of a massive and far-reaching change to the fabric of NZ society. That seems entirely uncontroversial. Zip to do with terrorism, however.

                Reply
      • Michael P 11.1.2

        16 June 2024 at 1:09 am

        "1984 arguably saw the first terrorist act on NZ soil. .."

        So what would you call the bombing of the Wanganui computer center in 1982? Or the 1975 intended bombing of the Indian consulate by the Ananda Marga group? Or the 2 Hare Krishna people who died when the bomb they were going to attack a meatworks with exploded prematurely? Or the numerous reported and kept hush hush acts of political violence during the Springbok tour in 1981, such as the fact that five bombs at various locations exploded, four undetonated improvised explosive devices were located, and multiple bomb-threats were made against various locations.

        "they also had strong pro-nuclear sentiments.."

        What evidence do you have for that and why would a pro nuclear stance be a contributing factor in planting a bomb at a union hall? Also, were unions in 1984 anti nuclear ? (keeping in mind that back then union members were not only working class but the unions themselves were almost entirely staffed and run by the working class.)

        The so called evidence released in I think 2018 or 2019 included a comment / statement that the suitcase in question was lined with pages 9.10.19 and 20 of the June 18, 1977 evening post. These exact pages were found to be missing from the same edition of the newspaper found during a police search of the house of the main suspect.

        Add to that the facts that the suspect was a loaner and a hoarder with expertise in explosives, a violent past, a history of redundancies and was 'thought' to be anti union.

        Plus Components similar to those used in the construction of the bomb were also found at his house.

        That's pretty strong circumstantial evidence.

        Then again you only really need to think a bit about the facts that in terms of 'homemade' bombs, this was pretty sophisticated (mercury switch, etc). The bomb was left outside George Thompson's print room. Thompson was heavily involved in the motor industry struggles against the government. The case remains unsolved despite the discovered evidence, the high profile, the rewards offered, etc, which would indicate blind luck on behalf of a lone bomber or more likely some involvement of the intelligence services or some other shadowy government entity.

        "..it was a political act…"

        Yep, that's what terrorism is.

        (Although terrorists usually publicize their involvement by claiming responsibility, to publicize their political argument and make people aware of their side of the argument. which of course didn't happen in this case.)

        "Unfortunately I can say no more than that at this time."

        Why not? I hope that if you have any further evidence or any evidence that points to perpetrator(s) other than the main suspect that you are discussing it with the police???

        Reply
    • gsays 11.2

      14 June 2024 at 7:13 pm

      Thanks for the reminder.

      The ripples from this failed experiment are wreaking havoc to this day.

      Welfare for working people, the dismantling of unions, the rise and rise of strangers raising our young and caring for our elderly, never seen before inequality can all be laid at neo-liberalism's door.

      Reply
    • Ad 11.3

      16 June 2024 at 3:30 pm

      Presumably you've seen the Toby Manhire series which commemorates precisely this.

      Personally I think Muldoon is more to blame than either Lange or Douglas.

      Muldoon kept us inside a statist cage for too long, refused to devalue the dollar, only very grudgingly handed over power after the election, and pushed Treasury and the new government into unnecessary crisis in its first months.

      Reply
12. Descendant Of Smith 12

    14 June 2024 at 5:08 pm

    A simple summary of privitisation issues.

    https://weownit.org.uk/privatisation

    A nice meta analysis. I've always liked this comment in it.

    Overall, private ownership offers more incentives for cost reduction, but these incentives can induce quality erosion. Ensuring quality under privatization requires increased oversight, which can blur the line between public and private ownership (Guttman, 2000; Bozeman, 1987). As the difference between public and private ownership disappears, the potential for cost savings from private ownership may disappear as well.

    http://www.ub.edu/graap/JPAM_BFW.pdf

    And of course the post-Soviet Union period had some interesting issues.

    What was revealing was how many of these emissaries of the capitalist way seemed to believe the myth that all that was good in the British and American economies had been constructed by the free market. They seemed to believe, or talked, made speeches, wrote papers as if they believed, that the entire structure of their own wealthy modern societies – the roads, the electricity grids, the railways, the water and sewage systems, the universal postal services, the telecoms networks, housing, education and health care – had been brought into being by individual entrepreneurs driven by desire for gain, with the occasional lump of charity thrown in, and that a bloated, parasitical state had come shambling onto the scene, seizing assets and demanding free stuff for its shirker buddies.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/22/sale-of-century-privatisation-scam

    Nothing I read in the last twenty years says it gave us the promised improvements.

    Reply
    • Michael P 12.1

      16 June 2024 at 1:13 am

      Plus even if all of the so called benefits actually happened (which they didn't and never do), would the dollar amount consumers from these 'benefits' plus the amout received from the sale be more than the value of the publicly owned assets which were sold? (including future projected returns / appreciation for the public if assets kept)

      Reply
13. Drowsy M. Kram 13

    14 June 2024 at 7:45 pm

    Several global warming models predict 1.5˚C of above pre-industrial temperatures by 2030, and +2˚C by 2050 – think positive.

    https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-what-record-global-heat-means-for-breaching-the-1-5c-warming-limit/

    Florida flooding puts DeSantis' delusional climate agenda in focus
    [14 June 2024]

    Kaipara council slammed over continuing with climate funding cuts
    [14 June 2024]

    Why Dutton is restoking the climate wars: politics with Amy Remeikis – video [14 June 2024]
    The Australian climate wars appear to be back, with Peter Dutton leading the charge. The opposition leader told News Corp he would not support the nationally legislated 2030 emissions reduction target, triggering accusations he would put Australia in breach of the landmark Paris climate agreement. So what's the play? According to political reporter Amy Remeikis, it has a lot do with 'distraction' and an upcoming election.

    Meanwhile, our CoC govt is doing all it can to meet commitments to the Paris climate agreement NZ signed in 2016. "It’s a case of slower to go faster", apparently.

    https://www.climatecommission.govt.nz/get-involved/exploring-the-issues/the-2050-target/

    Turbulent, distracting times ahead – keep your seat belt fastened, if you can afford one.

    The ‘flickering’ of Earth systems is warning us: act now, or see our already degraded paradise lost [31 Oct 2023]
    In the 2030s, 40s or 50s, when the climate crisis has manifested itself in global catastrophe, some wretched politician will be running round in circles whimpering: “Nobody told us it would be this bad.”

    Reply
    • Michael P 13.1

      16 June 2024 at 1:15 am

      "Several global warming models predict 1.5˚C of above pre-industrial temperatures by 2030, and +2˚C by 2050 "

      Have any global warming models been correct in their predictions up until now?

      Reply
      • Drowsy M. Kram 13.1.1

        16 June 2024 at 11:30 am

        In recent decades human activities have resulted in a significant imbalance between the energy spaceship Earth absorbs from the sun, and the energy it loses to space. This imbalance is causing spaceship Earth to heat up.

        New Delhi records highest-ever temperature of 52.3C as north India swelters [29 May 2024]

        Have any global warming models been correct in their predictions up until now?

        “Equilibrium global warming including slow feedbacks for today’s human-made greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing (4.1 W/m2) is 10°C, reduced to 8°C by today’s aerosols”

        … models are useful and even necessary for analysis of the complex climate system, but sometimes the models contain hocus-pocus. As we mention in our current paper, they can assume, in effect, that “a miracle will occur.” So, the models need to be continually checked against the real world.

        Our research is focused on real world data and comparison with models, with the hope of gaining insights about how the climate system works and where the real world is headed.

        https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/CommittedWarming.25May2023.pdf

        In 2012, NASA scientists reported that to stop global warming atmospheric CO2 concentration would have to be reduced to 350 ppm or less, assuming all other climate forcings were fixed. As of 2020, atmospheric CO2 reached 415 ppm and all long-lived greenhouse gases exceeded a 500 ppm CO2-equivalent concentration due to continued growth in human emissions.
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget

        14 June 2024 atmospheric CO2 is 427.53 ppm – overshoot lifestyles are addictive.

        What’s to blame for collapse? [27 March 2024]
        Dave: Hi Jem. You’ve got a new book out – Breaking Together, and you’ve changed your position slightly haven’t you – you’re saying that collapse is a process not an event, and that it’s more than inevitable – it’s already underway.

        Jem: Yes. It’s been 5 years since the Deep Adaptation paper, since when I’ve discovered it’s much worse than I thought. In the majority of countries we looked at, quality of life indicators have been falling since 2015. That can be related to the underlying systems – energy, food, biosphere, economy, money, climate. Then the question is: ‘what to do about it?’ (and ‘what not to do about it?’).
        …
        … there’s a chapter in the book on the money system, and how it enslaves us to a particular way of being in the world. We’ve all grown up with it, and so been manipulated and coerced into a destructive approach to life. We don’t know what it would be like to live free of that – how much we could be cooperating with each other, rather than harming each other and nature.

        With each of these framings — collapse, catastrophe, extinction – people describe different degrees of certainty. Different people speak of a scenario being possible, probable or inevitable. In my conversations with both professionals in sustainability or climate, and others not directly involved, I have found that people choose a scenario and a probability depending not on what the data and its analysis might suggest, but what they are choosing to live with as a story about this topic. That parallels findings in psychology that none of us are purely logic machines but relate information into stories about how things relate and why. None of us are immune to that process. Currently, I have chosen to interpret the information as indicating inevitable collapse, probable catastrophe and possible extinction.

        My own conclusion that it is too late to prevent a breakdown in modern civilization in most countries within our lifetimes is not purely based on an assessment of climate science. It's based on my view of society, politics, economics from having worked on probably 25 countries across five continents, worked in the intergovernmental sector of the U.N., been part of the World Economic Forum, working in senior management in environmental groups, being on boards of investment funds.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jem_Bendell

        Let's just hope that Hansen, Bendell and other meddling scientists are very wrong.

        https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/dec/04/more-than-1000-climate-scientists-urge-public-to-become-activists

        [Caught in Spam-trap because too many links. Please consider shorter more succinct comments with fewer links – Incognito]

        Reply
        • Incognito 13.1.1.1

          16 June 2024 at 1:14 pm

          Mod note

          Reply
          • Drowsy M. Kram 13.1.1.1.1

            16 June 2024 at 2:43 pm

            Apologies, I missed an embedded link in the Energy Budget excerpt, and the two (duplicate) links in "atmospheric CO2 is 427.53 ppm", where one would do.

            Will try to limit the number of links in future.

            Reply

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