Open mike 17/08/2024
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6:00 am, August 17th, 2024 - 44 comments
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- Property Rights and the Treaty Principles Bill
Property rights – which enable decisions over tangible and intangible assets – are critical to an economy as Why Nations Fail pointed out. Not just private property rights for, as we shall see, they are more complicated than that. Neoliberals argue that private property rights lead to the maximum economic ...13 hours ago - The Hoon around the week to November 22
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Following the 2022 Brazilian general election, election loser Jair Bolsonaro tried to do a Trump, attempting a coup to overturn the election. It failed. But unlike his American friend, he hasn't been allowed to get away with it: The former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro and some of his closest ...14 hours ago - Treasury warns deeper recession worsening Budget deficit
The gift that keeps giving: David Seymour has now opened a split in the coalition over the future of National’s promise to build a new medical school. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / TheKakaKia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and ...21 hours ago
- Weekly Roundup 22-November-2024
It’s another Friday and we’re inching closer to the end of the year. Here’s some of the stories that have caught our attention this week. This post, like all our work, is brought to you by a largely volunteer crew and made possible by generous donations from our readers and ...22 hours ago - Beyond Question?
Record Numbers: The Hīkoi mō te Tiriti, which began at the tip of the North, and the tail of the South, on 11 November, culminated outside Parliament on Tuesday, 19 November 2024, in one of the largest demonstrations in New Zealand’s political history.ACCORDING TO TE ARA, the Ministry of Culture ...22 hours ago - The Rush To Blame “The Activists”
Activists are such easy scapegoats. The right and center have been conditioned for decades to roll their eyes at all protests. The left are easily aggravated over students leading movements they see as belonging to grownups, who have more important concerns like the economy and whether the trains come on ...22 hours ago - Cutting Through An Inundation of Dipshit Racists
Hi,Watching New Zealand from afar offers a strange perspective. It can be a good thing — distance from Aotearoa helped keep me sane while I reported on abuse at New Zealand’s biggest megachurch over the course of a year. It helps fuel my silly podcast. But it can also be ...23 hours ago - This is bad news
The speech yesterday by Treasury’s Chief Economic Advisor warning that the books are in worse shape than forecasted looks like it’s part of a softening-up process for either more cuts or a longer wait to get back into surplus. The speech was a highly unusual public preview of Treasury’s Half-Yearly ...1 day ago - Skeptical Science New Research for Week #47 2024
Open access notables Projected increase in the frequency of extremely active Atlantic hurricane seasons, Lopez et al., Science Advances: Future changes to the year-to-year swings between active and inactive North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) seasons have received little attention, yet may have great societal implications in areas prone to hurricane ...1 day ago - Chicken Kiev
Chatting in the supermarket this morning, I found I needed to lunge for the chicken drumsticks.Coping mechanisms: who hasn’t felt a greater need for them lately?When it all gets too much, I turn to demonstrating handy butchery hacks.It wasn’t that she’d said anything wrong, our friend, not at all. We ...2 days ago - The year is 2024 and it’s 1984
This is written in response to the highly significant open letter from a group of economists that was today addressed to Christopher Luxon. The year is 2024, and it’s 1984. The country is reeling from a record Olympic medal gold haul, while the globe grapples with the choice of the ...2 days ago - The IPCA has failed
Back in 2022, RNZ took an in-depth look at the "Independent" Police Conduct Authority and its handling of killings by police. These are the most serious test of oversight, and you would expect the police's use of lethal force to receive the most severe scrutiny. But despite the police regularly ...2 days ago
- Thursday 21 November 2024
The Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti arrived at Parliament on Tuesday – the size is being debated but estimates range from 42,000 to 100,000. The Prime Minister is defending not attending due to some of the organisers being affiliated with Te Pāti Māori. The national gang patch ban came into force ...2 days ago - ‘These budget cuts are counter-productive and make no sense’
I spoke to former Productivity Chair Nana this morning about the letter he and a group of other economists sent to PM Christopher Luxon to urge the Government to urgently suspend cuts to spending and investment for the sake of the economy, struggling businesses and the wellbeing of vulnerable ...2 days ago
- ACT’s Astroturfing & A Co-ordinated Attack on Te Pati Māori
Unity on the Streets / Unity at the TableAfter the Hīkoi, all three right wing Coalition leaders came together to push the idea that the 42,000 - 50,000 + strong Hikoi was somehow less potent and brave, and more illegitimate than the energy and crowd displayed.Prime Minister Christopher Luxon 20-November: ...2 days ago - Durability of carbon dioxide removal is critical for stabilizing temperatures
This is a re-post from the Climate Brink The world is emitting over 40 gigatons of CO2 per year, contributing to an accelerating warming of the planet. The world needs to cut emissions rapidly to be remotely on track to meet our Paris Agreement goals of limiting warming to well-below 2C, and we ...2 days ago
- Throwback Thursday: Will “Auckland Transport” Survive?
With Auckland Transport’s future up in the air under Mayor Wayne Brown’s proposed CCO reform, we’ve dug way back into the archives, to unearth this post originally published in March 2010. As you’ll see, many of the debates that were being had when AT was first proposed continue to ...2 days ago
- I Love My Leather Jacket
I wear my leather jacket like a great big hugRadiating charm - a living cloak of luckIt's the only concrete link with an absent friendIt's a symbol I can wear 'till we meet againOr it's a weight around my neck while the owner's freeBoth protector and reminder of mortalityIt's a ...2 days ago - Economists call on PM to suspend budget cuts for the sake of the economy
Nicola Willis’ budget cuts are under fire from economists for having no clear rationale and worsening the recession. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāKia ora. Long stories short, here’s my top things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Thursday, November 21: The news at ...2 days ago
- The end of policing by consent
National has appointed a new police commissioner. And he explicitly rejects policing by consent: Asked if he subscribed to policing by consent, he said he did not. “I don’t talk about policing by consent. I talk about trust and confidence, and it is fundamentally important that the police have ...3 days ago
- The Treaty Principles Bill: A Who’s Who
David Horatio Waterbed SeymourFringe politician and dweeb transformed successfully by ThinkTank money into a well-oiled soundbite robot.Currently programmed to say: Equal rights for all New Zealanders Equal rights for all New Zealanders Equal rights for all New Zealanders Was previously programmed to say:I am a proud libertarian andI am a ...3 days ago - Kinleith mill closure shows need for industrial strategy
NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi President Richard Wagstaff is calling on the Government to deliver an economic and industrial strategy for regional manufacturing, rather than just expressing sympathy for job losses, following the announced closure of Kinleith mill in Tokoroa. “The closure Kinleith mill in Tokoroa is not just devastating for ...3 days ago
- 27% of kids going hungry, up from 21% in a year
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- Young Maori take over
Neither Wellington nor Parliament has ever seen anything like it before. The Police said there were more than 40,000 but however many there were, yesterday’s Hikoi to Parliament was a monumental event. It was almost three times the Foreshore and Seabed martch of 2004 and many,many times bigger than ...3 days ago
- Gordon Campbell On The Hikoi Aftermath
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- We need to talk about Kevin
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Like everyone else (everyone who wasn't there, anyway), I've spent the morning watching the hikoi march on Parliament. The pictures are astounding: parliament grounds and the surrounding streets are full, and there are still people backed up along Lambton Quay. The police are estimating 35,000 people, and that's a floor ...4 days ago
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4 days ago - Discount Code for Webworm Merch!
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There were urgent moves yesterday at Parliament to try and defuse the tension building up over ACT’s Treaty Principles Bill. The Bill’s author, ACT leader David Seymour, told reporters that he understood the Justice Select Committee met yesterday to discuss how long it should take to consider submissions on the ...4 days ago
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4 days ago - Gordon Campbell On The Hikoi Arrival, And Tyler Childers
Politicians like to bang on all about the need to heal society’s racial/economic divisions, but in their actions they’re more keen on stoking those divisions, with the Treaty Principles Bill being the classic example. The Bill seeks to dilute the Crown’s responsibilities to Māori at the same time as it ...4 days ago
- Socially Backwards and Fiscally Forwards: the False Ideological Divide and the “Conservative” Li...
4 days ago - Kaamos: Accepted
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The NZNO have announced a nationwide strike for December over its pay dispute with Health NZ, who have put a 1 per cent cap on pay rises. The Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti and Treaty Principles Bill remain front and centre in the media, with the impacts of the Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke-led ...5 days ago
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This post was originally published on Linked In by Nicolas Reid. It is republished here with permission. Auckland is now just a year or so away from having the keystone of its urban rail network complete. As I wrote about here, the City Rail Link will be a literal game changer for ...5 days ago
- National’s support base is wobbling
If ACT leader David Seymour intended the Treaty Principles Bill to drive a wedge into National’s support base, he may well already be succeeding. By midnight on Thursday after the Maori Party haka in Parliament, National MPs were being deluged with emails and messages from their members calling them out ...5 days ago
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- Grifter Eftpos Tamaki at it again
..Thanks for reading Frankly Speaking ! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.Self-appointed “Bishop” and proto-fascist, Brian Tamaki was at it again on 16 November, blocking Auckland’s southern motorway, SH1.This time, the target of his ire wasn’t the Civil Unions Act; covid lock-downs; mask mandates; or ...6 days ago - Rip up a bill, lead a haka are words to live by
I cannot stop grabbing people by the lapels, or shoulders, or similar, and raving at them about the tiny miracles in my ears.I can hear again! There could not be a more satisfied customer in all the world.In a noisy cafe I am even catching words that Karren cannot, she ...6 days ago - Unintended Consequences
Take the baitYou pay the priceIt's much too lateFor good adviceYou know and I know that our good things' throughBecause there's consequences for what we doConsequences for me and youWriters: Kevin Robert Hayes, David Nagier, Bonnie Adele Hayes.Fallout from the first readingOne News began last night by saying that tens ...7 days ago - Thank you, driver!
Today, Saturday 16th of November, is Auckland Transport’s Bus Driver Appreciation Day! Saturday 16 November marks the third annual Auckland Transport (AT) ‘Bus Driver Appreciation Day’, and this year we are encouraging all of New Zealand to thank their driver or let the bus go first if you are in ...7 days ago
- Totally Normal: Holiday Edition
Hi,If I was to accurately sum up my mental state over the week, I’d just say that I got a huge fright from my own shadow.I’d nipped out for an 11pm neighborhood stroll, just to calm down after a day of stress and screens. The Cure and Fazerdaze’s new record ...7 days ago - We Are Not Listening
The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
1 week ago - More lawlessness from National
On Tuesday, sick of government stonewalling, the Waitangi Tribunal issued a rare court order, ordering the Minister of Health to release unredacted documents within 48 hours showing its reasoning for disestablishing Te Aka Whai Ora, the Māori Health Authority. The government's response to the lawful order of a court? Yeah, ...1 week ago
- National’s tyrannical “foreign interference” law
Yesterday, under cover the the biggest political fight of the year, National quietly - covertly, even - introduced anti-foreign interference legislation. The bill is the product of a years-long work-program aimed at countering shit like this and this, and there's unquestionably a need to do something to counter foreign states' ...1 week ago
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The Treaty Principles Bill continues to dominate political news, with it passing its first reading in the House. Parliament was briefly suspended and Te Pāti Māori MP Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke suspended for 24 hours after leading a haka that was joined by opposition MPs and the public in the gallery. Willie ...1 week ago
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- First Tea and Toast, now Milo — why do NZ’s best beverages need so much defending?
Only two months ago, Nicola Willis had to step in to stop Health New Zealand cutting tea and toast for post-birth parents, and now Lester Levy is riding to the rescue with a welcome message for all: our health workers can once again drink Milo, and will no longer need ...1 week ago - Gordon Campbell on the folly of making apologies in a social vacuum.
Day One of the Treaty Principles Bill…and everyone got what they wanted, and did what they liked. Heated words were exchanged. Culturally appropriate acts of outrage were performed. David Seymour got to play the victim card. Willie Jackson got kicked out of class. A comically red-faced Mr Speaker bellowed “Order, ...1 week ago
- Skeptical Science New Research for Week #46 2024
Open access notables Microbial solutions must be deployed against climate catastrophe, Peixoto et al., Nature Communications [comment]: The climate crisis is escalating. A multitude of microbe-based solutions have been proposed, and these technologies hold great promise and could be deployed along with other climate mitigation strategies. However, these solutions have ...1 week ago
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The government's Treaty Principles Bill is up for its first reading today - bought forward in a rush in a desperate effort to avoid the hikoi which is currently marching on Wellington. But the Prime Minister won’t be there for it – he’s literally running away to Peru! But he ...1 week ago
- 97% of submissions did not want no-cause evictions, Trump chooses a Russian spy for US Intelligence ...
Good morning, and I’m sorry I’ve been away for a couple of days.I’ve been focusing on the Hikoi, and also testing out sentiment on the Treaty Principles Bill. It’s complicated, and the Treaty Principles Bill will be debated in the House today. The Government’s own lawyers have told them the ...1 week ago - Government must vote down ACT Members Bill that would undermine workers’ rights
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The State would like to remind you that they are in control. They manage your employment prospects, and can destroy the job market you and yours rely on by mass-cancelling construction projects, cutting funding, and firing a good chunk of our public servants. They wield the mechanisms that provide scrutiny ...1 week ago - The Weight of the World
As the weight of the world Hangs on your shoulders The weight of the world Starts to take over again And over again All that you once loved, now you hate So slowly relearn how to meditate To have and to hold And never let go Can you feel it ...1 week ago - Thursday 14 November 2024
The Treaty Principles Bill is set to have its First Reading in the House today, as the Hīkoi mō Te Tiriti continues. More than 40 KCs have written to the Prime Minister and Attorney-General outlining their “grave concerns” about the substance of the Treaty Principles Bill, while an academic and ...1 week ago
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The Government has passed legislation to remove agriculture from the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) while Aotearoa’s reputation on climate action plummets. ...1 day ago - Failed boot camp experiment must end
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The Ministry of Health has today released an evidence brief regarding the use of puberty blockers in gender-affirming healthcare, amid moves by the government to limit access. ...2 days ago
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- Release: Youth mental wellbeing no longer a priority for Child Poverty Minister
Louise Upston has revealed her diminished vision for vulnerable youth against a backdrop of snubbed advice, scrapped priorities, shifted goal posts and thousands more children projected to fall into poverty. ...2 days ago
- Release: National’s lack of climate action taking NZ backwards
National Government’s backward-looking climate policy has seen New Zealand fall seven places on the Climate Change Performance Index to 41 out of 63 countries measured. ...2 days ago
- Release: Simple reason for drop in emergency housing
When the Government says it has reduced the number of people in emergency housing, what it means is it is stopping people from accessing it in the first place. ...2 days ago
- Govt’s child wellbeing strategy ‘shallow and shameful’
The Government is turning its back on children by not only weakening child poverty reduction targets, but also removing child mental wellbeing as a priority focus in their Child and Youth Wellbeing Strategy. ...2 days ago
- Release: A historic win for Samoan communities
Labour warmly welcomes the Restoring Samoan Citizenship Bill as it passes its third reading, before becoming law. ...2 days ago
- Government plan to reinstate live animal exports a “national disgrace”
The Government has taken a giant step backwards by reinstating live animal exports. ...2 days ago
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Teanau Tuiono’s Member’s Bill, the Citizenship (Western Samoa Restoration) Amendment Bill, has passed its third reading and will become law. ...2 days ago
- Release: Minister of Education thinks New Zealand ends at the Bombay Hills
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- Economists sound alarm on Government’s slash-and-burn approach
A group of prominent economists has released an open letter to the Government, raising grave concerns about the far-reaching consequences of its fiscal policy. ...3 days ago
- Release: Smoking numbers up under Costello’s watch
National’s repeal of Labour’s smokefree legislation has taken New Zealand further away from achieving a Smokefree 2025 and a smokefree generation. ...3 days ago
- Release: Call for Palestine recognition by NZ, Australian and Canadian MPs
Parliamentarians from Australia, Canada and New Zealand have written an open letter to their respective Prime Ministers calling on them to recognise Palestine. ...3 days ago
- Justice Select Committee opens floor for Treaty Principles submissions
Today, the Justice Select Committee has decided to officially open submissions for the controversial Treaty Principles Bill. ...4 days ago
- Power of the people on full display as hīkoi approaches Parliament
Today, Hīkoi mō te Tiriti arrived in Wellington, with thousands gathering to march in unity against the divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...4 days ago
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The Prime Minister must answer the call from a group of senior lawyers of the King’s Counsel to abandon the divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...1 week ago
- Chris Hipkins’ apology statement to state and faith-based care survivors
...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour formally apologises to state and faith-based care survivors
Labour joins with the Government in unreservedly apologising for the abuse, neglect and trauma including torture in state and faith-based care and for ignoring the voices of survivors for too long. ...2 weeks ago
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Today, the Green Party stands alongside the survivors of abuse in state care and faith-based care as the Government issues an historic apology. ...2 weeks ago
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The Green Party has written to the Speaker of the House requesting he enable a personal vote on the Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- Govt move to exclude journalist risks chilling effect
The Green Party is alarmed by the Government’s move to exclude a journalist from covering this week’s apology for the survivors of abuse in state and faith-based care. ...2 weeks ago
- Without action, an apology will be empty air
For tomorrow’s apology to survivors of abuse in state and faith-based care to hold any water, the Government must not pursue the same policies that drove the abuse in the first place. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Concerns remain over tobacco interference
Concerns about the tobacco industry’s ability to interfere in government policy making remain, despite the inability of the Office of the Auditor-General to investigate the Government’s decision to halve the excise tax on heated tobacco products. ...2 weeks ago
- Urgent wake-up call on climate
The Climate Change Commission’s latest advice indicates Aotearoa needs to be stepping up on climate action. ...2 weeks ago
- Green MP’s Meme-ber’s Bill set to save the world
Break out the punchlines and dust off your meme folder: Green Party MP Kahurangi Carter’s Copyright (Parody and Satire) Amendment Bill was pulled from the Ballot yesterday. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Poroporoaki: Ta Robert (Bom) Gillies
Kua hinga te manawa kairākau o Te Rua Tekau Ma Waru Tiwhatiwha te po! Kakarauru i te po! Ka rapuhia kei hea koe kua riro! Haere e te Ika a Whiro ki o tini hoa kua ngaro atu ki te Pō ...2 weeks ago
- Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori call on the Prime Minister to block the Treaty Principles Bill
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori call on the Prime Minister to block the Treaty Principle...
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- NZ must pursue independent foreign policy
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The incredulous msd drone then proceeded to grudgingly accept his Gold card photo ID ..
msd belatedly says..sorry.
Lord have mercy ? There will be no mercy from Landlord luxury Luxon..or any of the NACT1 cancerous creeps.
I am not batting an eyelid. This ID situation actually goes beyond the morons at Winz, and goes to the issue of formal identification.
As someone without a licence, I've encountered many occasions where someone wants to see my licence, and the incredulous looks when I say I don't have one. To the point of being told I'll just have to get one, at which point I stop being civil and they hear all about it.
There's many people in NZ- usually in lower socioeconomic groups- who have neither a licence or valid passport, or gun licence. The only 3 things deemed acceptable by a lot of companies, and also needed should you wish to obtain your credit report, or for businesses to undertake a credit check when you apply for finance etc. I was unable to take advantage of a very good telco offer because I didn't have the required ID for them, so I'm stuck with pre-pay.
For many years, our only option was the 18+ card, designed as proof of age for buying alcohol and smokes. Very embarrassing to be carrying around when you're 40+ But it was (meant to be) accepted by government agencies, and for the most, WINZ did accept it.
In more recent times, the Kiwi Access card has appeared, I suspect the government finally clicked on that there were an awful lot of people without 'official' ID. While this one is way more practical and it's meant to be accepted by all businesses, there still seems to be private businesses around who won't accept it.
The KA card application is almost on a par with applying for a passport, except the photo doesn't have all the strict rules. Proof of who you are is required, either via ID like a passport, or a declaration from someone who knows you.
For many years I've wanted to see a voluntary national ID card as an option. Wallet size, with Name, DoB and legal status, ie NZ citizen, Permanent resident. It could be issued through Internal Affairs/passport office, at a much cheaper price, and 10 yr validity. And it has to be accepted as formal ID from every agency and business in NZ.
For some reason, a ID card still doesn't seem to go down well with some people (big brother?), but since licences are now a default ID, there's really no problem for a voluntary card.
Thank you Kay, that is a useful addition.
As a non-licensed person myself I refused to get an 18+ card as a grown adult for ID. It is beyond me how governments have not come up with a suitable identification card for grown-up's.
Didn't know about the Kiwi access card. Will have to check that out. Can see why shops places don't accept it – sounds like a marketing gimmick.
Ahh it’s the 18+ card by another name. So yeah hospitality industry gimmick. Useless successive governments still have zilch.
As a (now retired) Justice of the Peace, I was pleased to see the Kiwi Access card come in. The 18+ card used to be the cheapest form of identification you could get – and there is also a Statutory Declaration of identity you can do. I used to do quite a lot of those as, with or without a photograph' they were accepted by many Government agencies, including as ID for visiting prisons.
I used to do a stint at the District Court JP Service Desk and had a lot of people asking about how to get an ID, or looking for a temporary one. We had a lot of copies of the Statutory Declaration forms!
It's truly insane to rely on driver's licences for ID, but the moment anyone raises the possibility of creating a govt-issued ID card so people who don't/can't drive have a means of identifying themselves, the loons are out there going on about barcodes tattooed on foreheads and One World Government. As you say, a voluntary ID card available to those who request it has none of those issues, but it doesn't seem to make any difference.
I identify as one of those loons.
What the anti-barcode brigade stand against is compulsion.
As pointed out there are a few options for ya, just without the authoritarianism.
Did I not make voluntary clear enough?
It's a remarkably small step from a full functioning nationwide QR code to enter a shop – which corresponds to your NZ Health number – and getting an ID card that is separate to a drivers license.
There's so much legal data sharing about NZers as soon as they get any kind of welfare or any kind of crime that privacy is really, really hard to defend anyway.
And for those who are hard core activist on the hard right or left and oppose id cards, trust me the SIS has a file on you already.
Ok I was actually highlighting the guys case, as the potential for added MSD nastiness is clear, and I have previously linked earlier nastiness ..
Anyway thanks for your input and useful Link !
This really highlights the need for an official government issued photo identification card.
Previous governments have introduced regulations requiring tighter identification requirements, without providing an official identification document accessible to all citizens.
For example banking regulations require government issued photo ID, NZ Passport, NZ drivers license or NZ firearms license.
This is how to get Gold Card photo ID, it does not come with a photo on it.
https://www.cab.org.nz/article/KB00043756
Oh cheers for the Link (I'm fortunate enough to be Aware, I feel bad for those notso, and will also help same to my utmost )
Also…CAB are great ! Good advice and if cant help there and then..they try to point in right direction : )
Ukraine continues to expand its occupation of the Kursk region. It seems that they are in the process of cutting the only three bridges across the Seym river in the region. The effect of destroying these bridges will be to cut off Russian forces in the region from effective resupply. Hence, there is a strong likelyhood that Ukraine could capture and hold a lot more Russian territory yet.
So, the question for the hand wringers who were arguing Ukraine should give up Ukrainian territory for the sake of peace, should Russia be doing the same? Apples for apples of course.
Ukraine has conquered 100km2 of Russia in this attack….that is 0.0006% of Russia. I'm sure Putin is quaking in his boots.
Meanwhile precious resources have been used for the attack that could have been used to defend Ukraine from Russian advances that have been successful over a wide front in the last 6 months.
But the MSM slavishly reports this as some kind of triumph.
One hopes the Ukraine 🇺🇦 has a cunning plan!
Part of the cunning plan is to grab as much Russian territory as possible as a bargaining chip when it comes to negotiations. Plus to stretch Russian forces as much as possible. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a amphibious landing on Crimea next, which would really throw a pigeon amongst the cats.
I believe they have a few Options open if the Ukraine Armed Forces can keep the Combine Arms Maneuver Warfare fluid as the Russians couldn't organise a piss up at the Baggies Bar let alone the Corpies Club when it comes to Combine Arms Maneuver Warfare.
The Ukraine Main Effort/ Decisive Point (Schwerpunkt) I believe is yet come & still shaping the Battlefield as they realise that Russia has no Mobile Strategic Reserve in the Ukraine Theatre.
So the Russians have to pull troops from other Areas of the Ukraine Theatre or wherever they can from Greater Russia, but given the Russian Military is still Rail Based for its Logistics! The Russian Rail System is at the verge of collapse or is already happening given what I've read/ seen already, they will struggle to plug & stall the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk Oblast.
The Russian's are still advancing but at a very slow rate in certain sectors of the Ukraine Theatre with their mass Infantry attacks. But if their Logistics Collapses & they can't replace their losses as their Logistics degrades because the of Ukrainian Long Ranges fires, Cyber hacks & the Kursk Sector crumbles. Then things will get very interesting for Russian's and old Mate Tsar Poots.
Depends who you listen to. According to the Ukrainians they now control 1000 square kilometres. That is a lot more significant. And, no reason to think it will slow, especially if the remaining bridges are cut.
Then, it becomes very difficult for the Russians to bring in reinforcements or supplies unless they do it by boat or pontoon bridges both of which would be great targets for Ukrainian drones. Plus, the volume that can come across by these methods is a lot less.
Given that most of the defending Russians are conscripts who are surrendering in mass, likely because they had little expectation or desire to be actually involved in a fight, the chances of the Russians keeping territory on the Ukrainian side of the Seym doesn't look too good.
And I guess NATO isn't quite the threat it once was.
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4827388-russia-moving-troops-kaliningrad-kursk-ukraine-attack/
Yep, and all those "red lines" that had the west quivering don't seem to mean much now. Pathetic.
Poland will be eyeballing Konnisberg.
It was ethnically cleansed post WW2 . Now full of russians – only russia wants it
Also, the Russians seem to expect they will lose a lot of territory because they are building new trench lines around 40km back from the deepest point the Ukrainians have got to so far.
“Satellite imagery collected by Maxar from the last two days shows a trench dug across the countryside near the city of Lgov in Russia’s Kursk region.
Lgov is about 40km from what is thought to be the deepest penetration of Ukrainian troops.
The Russian trench appears to have been dug close to a main highway and rail line.”
Oops you are right it is a thousand sorry….so 0.006% then.
Not sure if it makes any difference though….Francesca nails it below
Gwynne Dyer is a Canadian journo who writes very effective political backgrounders that tend to more of a neutral setting politically. The Manawatu Standard paper (Stuff) today (can't find an online link, sorry) published his commentary on the Kursk incursion.
Dyer says the most obvious reason for this move is for upcoming population swaps, ie, this is creation of a civilian hostage enclave, not a land grab. It is positioning for an eventual ceasefire (or an abrupt one, if Trump gets voted in).
We know from previous Russian policy that the existing Ukraine population in Russian-annexed Ukraine will probably be carted off somewhere poverty-stricken in Russia, as happened after the recent Crimean annexation (and as happened to my grandparents and parents in the Second World War, courtesy of Stalin). You don't leave a resentful population in place.
Ooh, I'd assumed the obvious, ie embarrass and undermine Putin, try and get them to pull forces from the areas where they're currently winning, but this is much more interesting. They'd have to hold onto the areas they capture though, and that won't be easy.
Meanwhile the Russians are advancing faster than ever .They are gaining territory in the east that is far more valuable than the sparsely populated territory in the border regions of Kursk.
And to not even make it to the Kursk NPP!!
A nuisance for sure , but a bargaining chip??
We will see.But it does look like Nato is getting more and more reckless.
Lol, "reckless." Come back when it's become so reckless as to mount a full-scale land invasion of a large European country.
Yet at the end of the day its Russia that sent there tanks into Ukraine. Its now a quagmire for them your support of the aggressor says it all.
Grandma explains why Russia will lose.
@IvanSemenovych
·
Aug 13
This is the most truthful & funniest video to come out from a senior citizen from Ufa. Babushkas know best!!
https://x.com/IvanSemenovych/status/1823229309349134729
Hillarious.
Going back to MSM and the blowing up of the Nord Stream pipeline at the start of the war, have to change my belief (and strenuous conjecture in the West Press) that it was a Russian initiative. A a Ukraine man disappeared out of Poland and into Ukraine to avoid a German arrest warrant regarding the explosion.
I can very much see that the Ukraine govt would have kept it under wraps at the war start, as it led to considerable economic disadvantage initially to Western Europe. Not a good look, but probably a sound decision under the circumstances. And it is an infrastructure attack, of course, although not one to harm Russian civilians directly.
I wish the Ukrainians success and hope they can expel the Russians from their territory or force them out diplomatically through this counter-attack. But I get a bit tired of bombastic, chest-beating armchair warriors who run here to make grand pronouncements based on no particular knowledge of anything and to gloat about dead, young Russians every time Ukraine makes an advance, while remaining eerily silent when the Russians advance. Maybe they could dig up some of the war comics they used to read as kids and be happy re-reading them – and leave this tragic inhuman mess to the grown-ups.
AB-In terms of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, I've seen intelligent and insightful comments on the Standard and plenty of pro-west bombast and propaganda in the MSM.
The people of Ukraine will have to concede some territory if they want peace. The Western Allies clearly aren't prepared to provide sufficient hardware or (any) troops to win the war.
That will certainly be true if Trump wins the US election.
Harris will continue Biden's very cautious approach.
There's no easy exit for either party and no shape at all to an armistice mechanism.
The US, EU and UK seem content to supply the knives to slowly bleed both Ukraine and Russia dry. Enabling Russia to weaken itself irreparably is for those interests a once-a-century very dark gift.
Yes the last time Ukraine did that! The Russian's/ Bolsheviks came back for their Hat and fully occupied Ukraine until 91!
Thence why Ukraine signed the Lisbon Protocol & Budapest memorandum in exchange Russia's guarantees, because they knew from history that the Bastards will be back for their Hat again!
Well said AB.
A wee while ago there was gloating about sponsored drones visiting carnage in the war.
The left has lost it's way whenever the pom poms come out over a war. It’s always the poor that contribute to the head count.
Early signs Harris will be better than Biden on the ME and Gaza.
@DavidKlion
A better metric for evaluating Harris on Israel at this stage is "does she make the worst people mad" rather than "is she the same kind of anti-Zionist I am." Judged by that metric, picking Walz over Shapiro and relying on Ilan Goldenberg and Phil Gordon makes them all very mad.
https://x.com/DavidKlion/status/1823134071561855101
Vice President and presumed Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris’s Jewish community liaison is a fierce advocate of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Iran nuclear deal, a harsh critic of Israeli settlement activity and the US Jerusalem embassy move, and a defender of the Palestinian Authority against efforts to defund it over financial support for terrorism.
Ilan Goldenberg, first reported by the Jewish Telegraphic Agency on Monday to be Harris’s Jewish community liaison, has extensively detailed his Middle East positions and policies in a catalog of opinion articles, think tank reports, and interviews dating back years.
https://www.jpost.com/american-politics/article-814964
With the specter of a broad Mideast war hanging over this presidential election—and potential U.S. involvement growing as the Pentagon dispatches carriers, destroyers, and missile-defense capable cruisers to the region—the answers to all of these questions are far more urgent than they typically would be for American voters. The problem is that Vice President Harris has largely been a back-bencher on foreign policy, unlike some of her predecessors, including her boss Joe Biden.
Which is why a man named Philip Gordon—who has served as Harris’s foreign policy adviser since she ran for the White House in 2020 and has worked in every Democratic administration since Bill Clinton’s—has become the focus of tremendous scrutiny in Washington over the past few weeks.
Republicans believe that through Gordon they have the outlines of a Harris foreign policy agenda. And they’re already crafting their political attacks around it. “Democrats want to put him in charge of the White House’s entire foreign policy,” Republican senator Ted Cruz told The Free Press. “It would be unspeakably catastrophic.”
https://www.thefp.com/p/philip-gordon-kamala-harris-foreign-adviser
Some good TikTok advice from Jordan Rivers on interacting with politicians online who peddle mis- and disinformation.
"some of the most popular forms of political marketing are rage-farming and cringe-core, and this is especially favoured by right-wing politicians"
Interacting on their websites feeds algorithms, which are blind to political nuance, amplifying the bad actor's reach. Comment on the issue at political websites with a more truthful viewpoint instead.
Of course I may be teaching grandmothers to suck eggs.
When I was getting an accommodation supplement MSD got very irate over my bank account being in a different name to my birth certificate. They started demanding I change my bank accounts back to my maiden name. It was as if they'd never encountered a newly divorced woman before.
They also demanded a birth certificate for a two day old baby and couldn't wrap their heads around the fact they're not issued immediately at birth.
They told me midwivery notes weren't enough and suggested I could have borrowed a baby.
It was an excruciatingly depressing situation having to maintain calm and be polite to them.
Ive been into a Winz office once in my life, I was 27 and was looking for a job any job foolishly thinking that WINZ might have something. The experience to be frank was miserable and have never been back and I never will.
Our new Human Rights Commissioners include one Stephen "Rainbow" infamous for this comment about a former FM
Indicative of a long held position in favour of Israel
Despite the following
It is fortunate he is not appointed an arbiter of free speech on foreign policy matters.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/new-chief-human-rights-commissioner-stephen-rainbows-pro-israel-facebook-posts-transphobia-accusations/LOFB5ENRDVFHNEWBWWK4MKNJUE/
Our own little project 2025.