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6:00 am, November 18th, 2022 - 62 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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The Polish village hit by Russian missiles lies due north of Lyiv, and on the same latitude west of Kiev.
NATO knows this, Biden et al know this, and President Zelenskyy knows this. Simply put, the Russians got it wrong – human error, and knowing Russians (I lived there for a short period) the operator was probably drunk!
Ukraine uses s-300 ground to air missiles, which, if they miss their target, are designed to explode harmlessly in the air, not fall to the ground and then explode.
Another commentator has suggested the crater from the explosion is way too big for a s-300 to make, but probably comes from something larger, like a Russian cruise missile.
Pictures of some of the debris look remarkably similar to that of Russian cruise missile debris found elsewhere in Ukraine.
Lastly, Ukraine (up to now) has been denied access to the bomb site.
We have (or are) witnessed (-ing) a huge cover-up – albeit for the best of reasons, to avoid a major NATO-Russia conflict.
This missile attack which killed two Polish civilians is just another war crime by the Kremlin.
If that is true its all over rover for Ukraine.Nato/US will not intervene with boots on the ground
I have seen that argument as well, that it was a combination of co-ordiantes for Lviv and Kyiv, hence a Russian mistake rather than a Ukrainian error. That argument is fairly weak in my opinion, and would require a lot more physical evidence to support it.
Also, another view from Michael Clarke, often relied on by media for commentary on the war, is that it was a Russian missile and the Ukrainian air defence missile. Hence two missiles. That would square with initial reports that suggested two explosions and explain the size of the crater.
So, there is a bit of water to go under the bridge with this yet.
A bit of a coincidence, though!
I have no confidence in the competence (or sobriety) of Russian soldiers. It would not surprise me at all if some tipsy computer operative mixed the co-ordinates up.
But certainly a mistake rather than a deliberate provocation.
But more evidence would be needed to make that case.
Both Kyiv and Lviv are large cities, so after the fact, it probably isn't suprising that missile strike co-ordinates could be aligned with those cities in retrospect.
If, however, the co-ordinates could be matched with say, power substations in each city, then that would be interesting.
Responding to Zelenskyy’s comments, a diplomat from a Nato country in Kyiv told the Financial Times: “This is getting ridiculous. The Ukrainians are destroying [our] confidence in them. Nobody is blaming Ukraine and they are openly lying. This is more destructive than the missile.”
https://www.ft.com/content/d417ea8f-62ee-4bb8-966b-a85a98fc6b3a
That article is paywalled!
try putting the URL into this (second field, or the first if the second doesn't work)
https://archive.ph/
Zelensky has softened their stance on the origin of the missile, but is asking for access to the site and the evidence, which I think is entirely reasonable.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-news-russia-war-poland-missile-nato-zelenskyy-biden/
Both the Russians and Ukrainians use the S300 Air Defense missile that is apparently the type identified from the remains. Normally when used for its intended purpose this missile has a self-destruct algorithm that cause the missile to explode in mid-air if it misses its target.
The Russians have been bypassing this protection to enable them to use S300s to attack ground targets, while the Ukrainians, having no ground targets they are allowed to hit, do not.
Also while it is clear that neither side would have any motive to deliberately target a tiny Polish farming village, the coordinates involved are plausibly the result of a Russian serviceman accidentally transposing coordinates from Lyiv and Kyiv cities.
Of course this is proof of nothing, but if NATO are certain of their case – then it should stand open, trusted and transparent scrutiny. This is a relatively straight forward technical investigation of the type that air accident investigators routinely report on.
The Ukrainian request for access to the data is reasonable.
Ukrainians have now been granted access to the missile site.
I understand that NATO has been tracking missiles fired, and should be able to determine the path of the missile that hit Poland.
The problem with the theory that Russia fired a S300 in ground attack mode is that, if the case, it must have been fired from Belarus. But, the analysis I have seen suggests that the nearest possible location would have been out of range.
I don't find the mixed up grid coordinate theory compelling yet as the margin for error is too high given the size of both Lviv and Kyiv. But if the coordinates could be reverse-aligned with credible targets in each city I would be more convinced.
If a Russian cruise missile was involved, I find the two missile theory most compelling. That is, a S300 air defence took down a Russian cruise missile, and that the debris for both fell onto Poland. The original reports suggested two missile strikes, so could be a credible explanation.
I understand the fail-safes in these missiles. But S300 failures have been relatively common, as has been evidenced by several videos of Russian missiles going astray and detonating on the ground.
We have our own example of what can go wrong when a technician accidently transposes coordinates. I refer to the Erebus tragedy. Together with the White Out phenomenon, the pilots were fooled into believing they were flying over the Ross Sea when in fact they were heading for Erebus.
The fault lay entirely with Air NZ (for reasons too detailed to go into here) but in their attempt to avoid responsibility Air NZ blamed the pilots. The extent of the cover-up job has never been revealed, but it included a criminal element and went to the top of the tree. Innocent people were caught up in it and had their reputations destroyed.
The chances are, something similar could happen here but perhaps the involvement of NATO will preclude a cover-up job.
Ukraine are now involved in the investigation, so a NATO coverup probably isn't likely. Neither is it necessary.
Whatever, missile hit, it obviously was an accidental strike on Poland, so never was going to cause WW3. I don't discount the accidential coordinate theory. I think we just need more evidence to co-oborate it. The missile debri supports an S300 being involved. We should know soon if there were any other missiles involved as well, such as a Russian cruise missile.
… so a NATO coverup probably isn't likely. Neither is it necessary.
I meant that. If another person or entity did try to cover-up NATO would expose it. 🙂
Invasion, war, genocide, slavery, resource looting, environmental destruction, racism, white supremacy. colonialisation, neo-colonialisan, imperialism, neo-imperialism.
Initially spreading out from Europe, the ongoing process of imperialism is now colonising the climate.
It's a process
It's a process and it has yet to reach its nadir.
Growth:
"Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of a cancer cell"
Edward Abbey
https://www.methodeva.com/blog/2018/11/growth-for-the-sake-of-growth-is-the-ideology-of-a-cancer-cell/
The anti-growth movement:
“We have sought to explain that what mainstream economists call progress is what ecologists call planetary ruin. We’ve contended that infinite growth on a finite planet is a recipe for catastrophe.”
George Monbiot
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/12/liz-truss-anti-growth-coalition-class-power
Cancerous:
“We’re bullish about the whole of the Pacific rim,”
“We think there’s the potential for lots of growth.”
Christopher Luxon
https://globalnews.ca/news/257764/ap-interview-air-nzs-new-ceo-christopher-luxon-sees-growth-opportunities-in-asia-us/
(tell it to the Pacific rim countries suffering the negative effects of climate change due to rising emissions).
Dr Jones takes a useful idea and spoils it. If climate change is a manifestation or outcome of colonisation, we might expect to see non-colonised populations (say in Europe) keeping their GHG emissions within sustainable bounds. We don't. If he argued that both colonisation and climate change have a similar origin (endless growth in capital accumulation) he might have something to talk about.
Instead, he seems to have inserted a false causal link in there to suit his own purposes. It really doesn't help to do this, because it ends up feeding the paranoia of the Groundswell types in believing that climate change policy is just a Trojan horse for Maori control.
The one powerful idea he expresses – "no problem [can] be solved within the conscience that created it" – therefore gets unfortunately lost.
I'm sure Dr dude is great at mental health, but gas emissions scientist he ain't.
US and European climate gas emission levels are falling fast.
Climate Change Indicators: Greenhouse Gases | US EPA
China is the biggest emitter by a long shot and it's mostly their coal.
World’s Top Emitters Interactive Chart I World Resources Institute (wri.org)
There is no pathway to a 1.5c degree increase solution anymore, and it's the actual collective global opinion saying that.
Emissions Gap Report 2022 (unep.org)
The focus has to be on China and India, because they aren't turning their systems around fast enough and because the effects are hitting them the fastest.
The Carbon Brief Profile: India
Arguably the source of historical colonialisation – Europe – is providing the best path towards the lowest climate impact.
.
For example, Germany was at one point the largest producer of steel globally. Now it's China. Steel production creates massive amounts of CO2. Easy for Germany to claim a significant reduction in CO2.
Does this mean Germany stopped using steel when building cars, houses, machinery etc.? Nope.
Not really. Unless we move the global polluting industry off this planet, instead of shifting from one country to another (normally from a more "advanced" country to a less "advanced" one, having less environmental / job security, which makes matters worse)
OR
We either reduce the production causing massive pollution or we introduce ways to produce existing products with significant less pollution.
As I mentioned before… if people don't like the amount of green house gases China (or any other big polluting country) produces, they should simply stop buying Chinese-made products, products containing Chinese-products or products produced on Chinese-made machines…
Cherry picking is fundamentally dishonest so just stop it.
Europe was the source of colonial empires, not Germany specifically.
Europe not Germany specifically, is the global leader in greenhouse gas emission decreases with a fall of 32% between 1990 and 2020 across all sectors except for a 7% increase in transport.
As for the offshoring argument, as far I am aware the EU has the most advanced carbon offshoring mechanism against such 'leakage'. Here's some analysis:
EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (europa.eu)
Neither China nor India are saints in steel production, but China in particular is acting to a plan and achieving. Also its' steel production has plateaued with the stagnation of the real estate economy.
For steel sector, China’s decarbonization is a costly quest | S&P Global
Simply instructing people not to buy from China as some wish towards perfection is just weak. New Zealand and Australia are addicted to China and it appears to suit all three just fine.
I used "For example" (with example being the country German and the industry being Steel) and I'm relatively certain other European countries did exactly the same thing, incl. colonial United Kingdom and France (to name two more major previously heavy-industrial countries in Europe); going up the "value chain" ensuring higher environmental standards and higher work safety locally, while the pollution and lower work safety are fully accepted remotely by the west. In the early years, which I would date it the early 90s after the end of the Cold War, the "dirty industry" also moved to easier close-by targets in the Eastern European countries.
The EU carbon border adjustment mechanism was certainly not around when the offshoring of dirty industries in Europe started. It's a good thing to have, no doubt.
And I've never even remotely stated, in any of my posts, that India or China are not a problem re. greenhouse gases or other forms of pollution. However, they are very easy finger-pointing targets for the West (incl. yourself, I might add)…
Until western countries clearly acknowledge that China / India's (and other countries, where often western companies produce for cheap) pollution are partially western responsibility too, improvements will be limited.
I'm not instructing people not to buy from China. I want people to acknowledge, that a significant part of their (China / India and the countries) pollution problem is inflicted by our (western) over-consumption of cheap products and moving of previously local industries to their shores.
Just posting this here, TDB hosts this, one of the excellent things they do. A must-listen for those freaking out about the media portrayal of TruMp TaKinG ContRol Of The HOuSe!!!!!!!!!!
Spoiler: well, no. Him running again is an absolute nightmare for the GOP. The tides are shifting against him, in a pretty serious way. For him.
Yeah they said that last time in 2016.
Must say that went through my mind as well. The scoffing media wrote Tr^mp off then couldn't get enough of him.
How much is known about Trump and how he performs in the environment now compared to 2016?
The most fervent Republicans will vote Trump for President in 2024 if he is the Republican candidate. How many will stay away from voting if he is their candidate? If he doesn't win the primary will he stand as an independent out of spite? Or to somehow stall legal processes against him?
Though the current Trump Brand may be electorally toxic, politics like nature abhors a vacuum. The far right populism of Trump fills an empty space in the American, anti-liberal conservative psych.
The marriage between the far right and religious fundamentalists was the secret to Trump's success, but wasn't a good fit with Trump's personality and values, which has led to a split in conservative voter support.
Relaunched with a new face, smile and squeaky clean persona the new Trump, better able to marry venal neoliberal finance and corporate values with the conservative religious values, will be more dangerous to democracy and world peace and the environment and climate than the original.
Countdown Pt. Chev now cheaper to shop at than Pak n Save as groceries are free! Hopefully police have the car number plate so arrests should be imminent.
Watch: Bold thieves bag trolley full of groceries before taking off in getaway car – NZ Herald
Last time it was Countdown Meadowbank
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/brazen-auckland-supermarket-shopping-trolley-theft-not-reported-to-police-countdown-using-own-security-measures/OO7WGZIKZ62B432INYH4R3PRZA/
Free groceries! How awful. Send the perps to the colonies – that'll learn 'em.
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/national/wellington-food-bank-appeals-for-donations-as-holiday-period-approaches/
https://waateanews.com/2022/10/17/davel-letele-food-banks-at-risk/
If you want to help, get in touch with a local food bank.
https://www.foodbank.co.nz/
https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/16-08-2022/the-side-eyes-two-new-zealands-the-table
There is always a video on social media.
There is rarely a video on the follow-up, which often results in arrest.
So, not free shopping, but extremely expensive. Unfortunately, the consequences in a court are not a "shock-horror" story, and there are no pictures. So they are not reported.
Do you have some evidence that police are actively following up shoplifting cases?
Because it's directly at odds with what business owners are being told – that basically they're on their own with security – unless there is violence involved.
Occasionally the perpetrator will be picked up over another issue – and the shoplifting crime added to the docket during the trial. It is unlikely to result in additional time on any sentence – and certainly won't result in any restitution for the shop owner.
On a smaller scale – we've had a local rush of thefts from parked vehicles (not even parked on the road, but down driveways, and inside carports), and front doorsteps. Often of tradie's tools, which are serial number IDed; and of courier packages. Police almost never come, even when an offence is reported (unless you're claiming on insurance, people are starting to say 'why bother'). Home-owners have provided camera footage of the offenders, and sometimes of their vehicles; and also info of where they are flogging off the stolen goods online. Zero interest from the police.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/130078074/hundreds-of-thousands-of-dollars-worth-of-stolen-property-recovered-in-wellington-police-operation
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/major-police-operation-sees-over-3000-stolen-goods-recovered/XZZGX2HLDJAHFGAX2KI6YJNJZ4/
This, however, isn't the type of case in the original comment: a supermarket trolley full of shopping; or my supplementary example of multiple local small scale thefts.
These will be commercial thefts on a large scale, almost certainly a burglary ring – stealing to order.
Given that it involved stolen property dating back at least two years – it's not exactly a ringing endorsement of timely policing.
The receivers will go to court (or, at least, I would hope so!) But, unless they dob in those involved in the burglaries, the people who actually committed the crimes won't.
I don't disagree with prosecuting the receivers. But you can't claim that this illustrates 'serious consequences' for the actual thieves.
That's how it's done. Well thought out, long term vision, effects on all stakeholders… what a great project and great journalism.
"…at a critical moment when human-caused climate change is hammering the Western United States with prolonged drought… allowing California’s second-largest river to flow naturally, and its flood plains and wetlands to function normally, would mitigate those impacts."
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/17/us-to-demolish-four-dams-in-river-restoration-effort
such good news!
for those that want to understand the meaning here, this from Derrick Jensen is worth a read,
https://derrickjensen.org/endgame/the-gift-of-salmon/
That's great.
Local Biogeography Expert Shane Wright will tell you how NZ's ecosystems were once massively enriched in similar fashion with nitrogen and phosphorus from the ocean. In our instance not so much from anadromous fish migration – but the vast colonies of sea birds that visited the land, and vice versa.
Numbers beyond comprehension.
Speaking of, I wonder if the mosquito plague currently hitting parts of Aussie will be a boon to the amphibians and birds? It's not a regular event, but some flux of aquatic nutrients brought back onto land will occur.
The world-view of the First Peoples led to this result.
There are great Youtube clips on these and they are inspiring.
No wonder the Contact Energy rails against the NZBattery Project given the Roxburgh Dam is well due for replacement.
Atiamuri, Whakamaru, Arapuni and Karapiro. The Waikato is such an obvious target for Waikato Tainui in 3 Waters, if Mercury haven't figured that out yet.
Mathematical analyst introduces well posed prose to crypto catastrophe.
https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1593347534591868932
Charlie Munger being more old school,called crypto VD,turds,coinage for kidnappers.
@ Weka
I don't get a reply link to your comment on Adam's line of comments.
You characterize my attacks on him as personal, but I don't know or care who he is – I treat pretty much anyone pushing fascist propaganda the same.
He never produces credible links (largely speaking there are none for most of his claims). He is never less than vile and insulting – is he to go unanswered?
I realize this creates issues for moderators, and I'm not trying to multiply them, but his disinformation needs to be contradicted.
If you want to reply to a comment that has no reply link, then just scroll upwards from that comment to the first reply link inline with the comment you are replying to.
Stuart,
Here's a selection from your recent comments, my italics,
and so on. You clearly are attacking him personally. Using ad homs. Which you seem to agree is a problem.
I can't imagine that adam has done that, and you've not provided any evidence that he has been. But even if he were, you still can't start flame wars here. I don't care what you think about him, I care how your behaviour affects this place, commenters, debate atmosphere.
Your problem is that the point I came into this you were both being abusive. I see no reason why I should single him out and not you.
Exactly. Argue against what he is saying, without all the added abuse. Then there is no problem for the mods.
If you can't see the difference between attacking someone personally and attacking their arguments, then there is most definitely a problem for the mods.
I have argued against what he's saying.
He started the ad homs, (a crack about warmongers! from a troll that supports Putin's invasion no less!) and he hasn't stopped lying for a moment.
He's a dedicated Putin bot, with no real world knowledge of Russia whatsoever.
You might want to go through his comments for ad homs too – I didn't start them.
I don't think the truth should be treated equally with lies, or fascist trolls the same as those who support Ukraine's right to self-determination.
He's the modern form of Nazi, and tolerance of him is inappropriate.
What you don't realise is that as a mod, I don't care who started it. This isn't kindergarten. What I care about are these things,
I have seen both of you using ad homs and personal attacks. That has to stop. Focus on the arguments and have a go at those. If adam is saying what you say he is, then you have plenty of material to work with. Personal attacks are just lazy in that sense.
No, you cannot use TS is run a crusade against those you believe are fascists. Do you have any idea how many people there are here who think like this but all about different people? Pull down the arguments, that is how you make the case. If you can demonstrate that another commenter is running fascist lines here, do that!
I've know adam commenting here a long time, so on the face of it I can't see what you mean. If you want to convince people, you have to do the work on that. Going forward.
I would be saying exactly the same thing to him.
Pah – I'm been banned for extended periods by those same fascists, Weka.
Nor do I live to indulge in the trade in lies that passes for debate from Adam.
I'm only concerned with their determination to misinform others.
I'd really rather not have to moderate Nazis on a supposedly left site.
Adam's fellow travellers are so dishonest as to routinely deny Russia's culpability for MH17 – they have no respect for truth whatsoever. They should pay for that.
Their ignorance of modern Russian history is on them – I don't propose to give them a three-year degree in it, and they wouldn't thank me if I did.
to me this looks like outright contempt of moderation on TS. Take this as a warning, that if you continue to do this you will be banned. This has nothing to do with adam, it’s about your behaviour and that you seem to think the rules here don’t apply to you.
mod note
One of the rules is truthfulness.
Until it is enforced on the Putin trolls, they will continue to waste everyone's time.
then use the way things work here to address that. Stop fucking with moderation.
I'm not sure that 'the way things work here' works.
My impression is that we are dealing with something very like Bonhoeffer's Theory of Stupidity.
In any case, I am increasingly busy these days, and have proportionately less time to deal with our resident Putin propagandists.
Good luck with them.
I encountered Bonhoeffer's story a while back and I commend you for linking to it. Best wishes with whatever it is that is gotten you busier.
Thought for the day..
Are we a representative democracy?
For the moment. 'Tweaked Democracies' seem all the rage.
Democracy needs tweaking. Witness how the privileged right howl whenever anything is suggested to grow participation.
Preservation of power is crucial to the already powerful.
.
Ohhhh, I think we can rely on Corporate Iwi and their affluent establishment Pakeha Woke "allies" (suffering from debilitating narcissistic personality disorders) to know what's best for us all.
I suspect it’s time we began to live our lives strictly according to their instructions.
Swordfish, weighing up the dilemma of unsolicited advice vs offer of something that may be useful. Apologies if I've made the wrong call.
If you are the type who looks to supplement your medical treatment, I can share access to a site that shows how to determine which off-label meds and supplements are best for your individual needs.
The approach is to interrupt the metabolic pathways that provide energy to cancer.
A research trial is happening in the UK.
https://careoncologyclinic.com/what-is-the-coc-protocol-new/
If interested, you can DM me on Twitter: @EdgeWatching
.
Thanks very much, Molly … you have absolutely zero to apologise for !!! … I'm genuinely very grateful … but I can understand you feeling a little wary & tentative given the melodramatic, self-pitying, tiptoe-on-eggshells-around me at all times personality types favoured by some of the Woke cadre here over the years …. (the sort of people who feel they've been brutally colonised and shipped off as slave labour if two women politely disagree with them) …. We've witnessed a small segment of highly manipulative vulnerable narcissists here over the years … they find a way of playing the victim at all times even when people have gone out of their way to be helpful & kind. The sort of walking-talking personality disorders who’d find a way to be highly offended by your very kind & thoughtful offer.
So, your offer & reaching out is very much appreciated.
Yeah, during the early cycles of first-line chemo late last year (those days when I wasn't suffering from the dreaded 'Chemo Fog', where you're in a state not entirely dissimilar to significant sleep deprivation), I did a reasonable amount of research on the most promising drugs currently being re-purposed to fight cancer in general & Stage 4 Colorectal cancer in particular.
Looked pretty clear from the literature – including some really useful 'umbrella' overviews – that there are 3 particular families of drug that are exhibiting the greatest efficacy against cancer:
Along with a handful of others.
In the process of my sporadic research during Sep-Dec last year, I did come across the COC protocol … didn't have time to read anything in great depth (haven't read the associated books for instance) … just the website overviews … but learnt enough of the very basic stuff to have a couple of informative email discussions with 2 GPs who are sympathetic to COC (around the same time, I also discovered the Joe Tippens story & others who had enjoyed unusually positive outcomes)
But I'd still like to learn more so I will DM you on twitter in the next few weeks (obviously not around Xmas / New Year though). Thanks again, Molly, really appreciate it.
All good swordfish. Whenever you want to get in touch, I will provide the login for the COC Jane McLelland course. (You'll be able to see how far I got, before getting a cheat sheet from a forum, which appealed to my lazy instincts). It's not a problem if you just want to have a look and not converse.
If later on, you want to swap war stories, we can do it whenever. I'll keep an eye out for your DM.
Very interesting. Although not directly applicable to my situation I will follow up on that.
Invitation applies to you also RedLogix. Just DM me if you want to know details.
" https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2022/11/18/christopher-luxon-why-not-a-boot-camp-for-tax-dodgers/
Yesterday the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists released a report on dental care in Aotearoa, highlighting its unaffordability and recommending free, universal dental care. This is something the left has been campaigning for for a long time – Jim Anderton pushed for it before the 2011 election, and Helen Clark has advocated for it. It would massively improve people's lives, reduce pain and suffering, and save money in the long-term. But it would involve spending money, so naturally Grant Robertson has vetoed it:
http://norightturn.blogspot.com/2022/11/grant-says-no-again.html
They should find that billion dollars a year for dental care. It would make a huge difference, A real difference. Lets do this Grant!
How much is the new health authority costing again?
Oh just checked it out. The new Health Authority is costing $11 billion dollars to set up and run for the next four years……..
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/467473/budget-2022-11-point-1b-allocated-to-overhauling-the-health-system#:~:text=A%20whopping%20%2411.1%20billion%20has,run%20the%20new%20health%20system.&text=Health%20New%20Zealand%20and%20the,district%20health%20boards%20from%20July.
Persoanally I rather have that money spent of dental care for all NZders.