Colmar Brunton has had National up to 57% and Labour down to 28%. The latest poll has National 54% and Labour 33%. So what? Now that National is not getting any higher than 53-54% for a while and Labour has been consolidating at 33-34% for a while means one thing — that National can only lose support and Labour gain support from here. Roy Morgan polls show a trend of National losing support and Labour gaining, and this Colmar Brunton confirms that. It’s not big swings yet, but steady erosion of National’s support is what is needed and happening now. It’s still a long way yet to Election 2011 and I think it’s all looking good for the left.
And don’t overlook the fact that historically under MMP, Labour has governed with 39-40% of the vote. You only need about a small 6% increase for Labour — and that’s easily attainable.
So, look at the trends — and that’s looking great for Labour.
Ok. So assuming Labour gain this 6% you reckon they need entirely at National’s expense, how do they go about governing with a marginal Green party, and having alienated the mÄori party, against National on 47-48% — almost a clear majority on its own?
The calculus you refer to held true before the last election, when Labour had reasonably strong possible allies. It doesn’t hold so true now that they’ve spent the term so far losing friends and alienating people. Having adopted a strategy of trying to marginalise the mÄori party, Labour needs to win big on its own in order to make something of the coming election. Either that, or it needs to set about mending those relationships. I don’t see either happening at present, and consequently I don’t see Labour being even remotely viable in 2011, based on their current track.
I’d love to be wrong, but I’m incredulous that anyone would try to argue that being on the wrong end of a ~20 point margin with fewer minor-party support options is “looking great”.
Actually, I think part of the problem is the Greens. Their MoU with National would have put a few percent of people who would have voted for them off. My own political alignment is closer to the Greens than anyone else and yet I’m considering voting for Labour simply because of that MoU.
A bit of National’s current polling support is soft. That’s where Winston comes in. If he manages to get back in, and ACT is kept out, that dramatically makes it so much easier.
Consider also that the 33% support is traditional leftish Labour support. A bit of the Labour centre support has drifted to National — that’s why their support has been inflated in recent times. Phil Goff and Annette King are a lot more acceptable to centre Labour supporters than Helen was, and so there’ll inevitably be some drifting back from National to Labour of the centre supporters.
About mending fences, there’s nothing to worry about. Remember, this is politics — there’s no permanent enemies in politics. The Maori Party will go with whoever looks likely to govern. Relationships are always mended at Election time when necessary 🙂
Finally, look at the UK Election now, poll numbers can change quite quickly come Election time.
The election can’t come quick enough? Don’t worry about Phil- these days voters can swing quickly given they have no real ideological allegiences.
Matthew, you may be interested in explaining how Tory poster boy Cameron has dropped 10% support in the last two months now that the pressure has come on. Being the bland popularist nice guy works fine until some supercedes you ( as Clegg seems to have done). Time for him to come up with some economic policies (if he has any).
There are still 18 months to go to get Phil up from 8%. He won’t be dumped till Sept 2011. Don’t know who would put their hand up to be the sacrificial lamb. Probably some one with overriding ego and ambition such as Cunliffe or Robertson to add two more names to the mix..
Always amuses me that the right are the only people bothering to speculate. It seems to be the only area that they have any dreams in that are not concerned with profit (and the rules of acquisition).
Unusually, some are even speculating outside the short-term into the medium-term (although they’d probably refer to it as the long-term). But not Fisiani – who is still definitely a short-term only thinker…
Lynn, I reckon it’s because everything they expected the NACTS to do (tax cuts and an end to the nanny state, mostly) has turned out to be a pack of lies.
They want to make predictions about the NACTS (their govt) but it brings a nasty bitter taste to their mouths and the sting of rejection to their cheeks.
Loved reading yesterdays 2015 article and responses, I did not get involved as my views are pretty well set. Which brought me to watching the news and the Polls. Hmm, here we are in the calm at the eye of the hurricane, all hell about to be let loose. And we aspire to this crew of scheisters. Why wide eyed do we walk so calmly to their guillotine? It says more about the people than it does for their elected ones.
It should be remembered that Kiwis are being fed smile and wave slops from our media, nothing has change from the election campaign.
We have past National Party candidates on morning breakfast making extreme right wing comments which then make Mr Smile and wave look quite mild and middle of the road, top it off with a bit of blokey back slapping and it all feels good.
However in my opinion once Nationals policies start to bite and Kiwis feel the impact things will change. At the moment Key has promised big a bit like a TV weight loss program, delivered nothing (No weight loss) and people are starting to wonder how long will it take till I see a positive change. Its only time before people start going hey this is not working, I have bought a TV promo lie,now how do I get rid of this piece of exercise equipment, Hmmm Trademe anyone?
Thanks Craig, that just about sums up the effects of good marketing, maybe we have got the habit of consumerism down pat, the promise of personal gratification a la Jenny Craig. Now how do we market us old fat ugly bastards doing things en masse (communally)?
…if the proposed tax cuts to top earners is meant to stimulate investment into job creation schemes. Does anyone think Key and English (as top earning beneficiaries) will use their windfall to personally create sustainable employment for someone or do you think they will use the extra dosh to invest in stocks/shares or whatever to increase their personal wealth ?
I’m pickin the latter, but as leaders promoting the ‘trickle down’ theory, shouldn’t they be leading by example rather than siphoning off public money to subsidise their higher cost of living. It’s not like they need the helping hand of what is essentially ‘social welfare’ is it ?
About time they put their money where their mouth is as opposed to expecting others to do it for them or taking money from other peoples mouths…i reckon
Key donates a large amount of his salary to charity.
yeah i’ve heard that, so is it possible to trace the original source for that particular urban myth ?
As we all know though, charity begins at home. Just ask Blinglish who set up his home as a ‘charity’ and got us via the state to donate to it. Maybe thats what Key means ?
But if not creating real jobs, does anyone think they will create a scholarship ? Once again I can see Blinglish setting one up for his high achieving daughter to subsidise her further education while writing off some tax at the same time.
Fair enough too if you think it is everyones duty to avoid paying as much tax as they can. I think if you can afford to pay more you should. It enriches your soul and brightens your ora 🙂
“is it possible to trace the original source for that particular urban myth ?”
It stems from an offhand and typically vague remark from Key during the election campaign. He said if he became PM he would probably donate “a good part” of his salary to charity.
This meaningless platitude has chinese-whispered through the wingnuts to the numbnuts and most of them now think that Key donates most – if not all – of his salary.
It gets claimed here every couple of months but no-one has ever provided a shred of evidence that he donates anything at all.
An long time Nat said to me last week “You know, I thought Key was the one, but he’s turned out to be pretty disappointing, there’s no sort of substance there “. The tide will turn against him, if not among the true blues, it will certainly amonst the waivers, even back to Winston.
Or the boy who stumbles onto a (world) stage, smiles and smiles and tries to find somewhere to put his hands, and struggles to find something meaningful to say.
. . . lets not forget the boy who stumbled off the stage at a Chinese New Year function, at least then there was a young Chaplin look about John Key; these days its more David Brent.
What about paying politicians on a percentage of the movement in jobs and national earnings. If we have a drop as of now, we naturally have to make cut backs, and seeing that they are often the root cause of them, then its only right that they should get less in their pay packets. But even if they don’t cause the drop, it is essential that more frugality reigns at times of downturn, they are prescribing it for others, we would like equality of frugality please.
We should also have a victim support approach with politicians making reparations for doing a rotten job if they could have done differently. Otherwise we just get political recidivism ad infinitum.
Well after hiding in the bush for a couple weeks the first newspaper arrives at the doorstep with a piece by Nick Smith on why they had to zap Ecan.
What a poorly written piece of drivel. Full of broad sweeping generalisations, repitition and half-baked facts.
The man can’t even write a decent piece of opinion / justification on his recent actions.
Drove the entire east coast yesterday. Southland will be the next troublesome spot. Did you know that water takes on the Mataura / Pomahaka catchments have increased 40-fold since the first North Island cows arrived about 15 years ago? Yes that’s right – 40-fold.
Maybe it’s time to light up that old cry – if you can’t beat ’em join ’em.
Listening to discussion about the outcomes of the decision to not send Maori to play rugby in South Africa last century. I thought I recognised the voice, very similar to Winston’s delivery – it was Wayne Peters, his brother. The Peters family must have some good ideas about raising youngsters to have two such confident and fluent speakers in public life. I wonder about the rest of their siblings – whether they are all achievers in their chosen areas.
This water thing – it’s like an ugly gold rush. They had rancher v farmer battles over water in the United States in the past. We could see multiple aggro here with more than just two farmers arguing over access. The idea of copying the irrigation of bare, parched land for food as we see in the USA may become a necessity to provide nutritious crops. Our ability to do this would be pre-empted if we give allocate all the water asset to increasingly aggressive and demanding dairy farmers.
A farmer was saying recently how hard it is to protect himself against theft and butchering of his farm animals. The thieves cut the cables laid to his surveillance equipment. If there is added the fact that a farmer has rights over water for his place while others go without, I think there will be anger and resentment and that could lead to more than animal theft.
People close to us (irrigating dairy farmers no less) had their irrigation infratstructure sabotaged in the recent past. There is no doubt conflict will occur.
Do you think the farmers of NZ know what had happenned in the Great Artesian Basin in Australia following massive irrigation? Why would they want to repeat such envirnmental annihilation here? Answer: quick income and capital value rises.
Short term thinkers our farmers.
People are always getting fired up about white collar business speculation and damage. I would suggest that NZ farmers are the most speculative of all. And NZ farmers have done more damage to NZ than anyone else (forget mining. in comparison farmers are the destruction experts).
I guess so…not a good look eh (especially if the farmers catch them.) There’ll be blood in the fields as well as the streets especially if a ‘matesy’ judicial decision in the farmers favour could see tensions escalate.
East coasters are known for burning shit down if it doesnt sit well with the ‘local’ view on things
Was reflecting on this at the local park/pond recently: you can tell we’re not in a properly brutal recession because there are still hundreds of ducks, fat and friendly enough that they’re easily catchable if you bring a few crusts of bread with you. When the ducks start disappearing, then you’ll know things are getting really bad — like Soviet-era bad.
Heh, yeah. I reflected on that, too: the dissonance from those who insist on comparing our economic status to that of the wealthiest countries in the world and saying that we come up short, while arguing that things could be worse because our poorest are not as badly-off as the poorest of the third world.
I was born and grew up in Russia, and I traveled back to Russia repeatedly between the late 80s and mid-90s. This allowed me to gain a solid understanding of the dynamics of the collapse process as it unfolded there. By the mid-90s it was quite clear to me that the US was headed in the same general direction. But I couldn’t yet tell how long the process would take, so I sat back and watched.
VTO: “the first newspaper arrives at the doorstep with a piece by Nick Smith on why they had to zap Ecan.”
I am still at a loss. Does the canning of Ecan mean that rights to water from Canterbury water, can be speeded and extended under the new controllers?
I understood that the reason that water extraction for irrigation was stopped by Ecan was because they already reached the limit of sustainability.
When there is a really serious drought in Canterbury, and there will be, what happens to dairy farms if there is no more water?
Ianmac, the canning doesn’t mean more water can be taken. But it is understood by most, given National’s post-election stated desire for more irrigation and water storage in Canterbury, that that will be the outcome.
And yes the upper limits of water extraction have been reached in many areas. You only need to look at the rivers and their flows (or lack of) to see that.
What will happen to dairy farms when there is no more water? I guess they will have to go back to what nature intended…
Canterbury, environmentally, is doomed. Thanks farmers.
Interesting item on vege stealing from Gisborne in link from pollywog. Makes me think of remembered business loss that Gisborne, and its workers, suffered. A tomato processing business initiative named Cedenco was doing good business and expanding yet ended up collapsed, all lost. This link to the Gisborne Herald will tell you more. http://www.gisborneherald.co.nz/article/?id=14615
It was sold to an Australian firm (or merrged). Ended up under a US firm. Story goes –
“In 2006 it bought Circle Pacific, a Hawke’s Bay integrated vegetable producer, packer, processor and exporter operation. Later in 2006 it bought Hastings-based squash processing company Southmark Quality Foods. The two Hawke’s Bay businesses were later merged.
In August 2008 Cedenco was in the news as senior executives of SK Foods became caught up in an American probe into corruption and bribery. In July 2009 SK Foods was sold out of bankruptcy and later that month announced it would close its retort factory in Gisborne.”
Probably only some of those jobs were replaced by some new initiative, and vege stealing might follow from this. It perhaps ties in with this business lost to the area.
Here in NZ we must invest in our own firms, stop them being swallowed up in bigger company’s machinations. There is short term capital gain when an entrepreneur sells out and then who knows what happens to the previously promising business. It is a continuing story – building up and selling out. The owner can’t be blamed, but we need to become more savvy and back our own good businesses to keep them going and find customers and keep the wealth we earn circulating (because we need to understand the economic term The Multiplier).
In my old Baumol and Blinder it revises the theory and says that you only get twoand half further spends from each dollar spent not five as had been stated, but that still has significant effect in widening business opportunities and employment. We need to grow useful businesses and keep them and their returns in our hands. Unfortunately that idea has never percolated out into the comfortable middle class who have chosen to invest heavily with financial speculators who must have felt like well-fed mosquitoes in a nudist colony.
Take these U.S. cotton farmers. About 20,000 of them. The U.S. government provides these tillers of the American pastoral with a subsidy of about $3 billion a year.
And all was good. But then, the WTO had to get nosyI know, the nerve!because as part of a big bad trade agreement, the U.S. promised not to harm farmers elsewhere in the world, like in Brazil. … So anyway these cotton farmers in Brazil sued the U.S. for breaking its trade agreement. And they won.
What would be the sensible thing to do here? Keep your trade agreement and end the subsidy to U.S. farmers, right? No, instead, the U.S. agreed to subsidize the Brazilian farmers. Yes, you read that correctly. Rent seeking has gone global.
Obama’s America just keeps on getting more bizarre. Who said central planners aren’t rational?
He’s by and large doing the same old shit that his predecessors did. He may do some good, in fact he has done some good, but that’s so overwhelmingly outweighed by the harmful and deplorable things he’s done. Sooner or later you’re going to have to admit to what Obama is.
He does power to change many things. It’s just ignorant to deny that. He may not be “in charge” because in any society power is quite diffuse, but he certainly has an immense amount of power over the lives of others. He consciously and knowingly makes decisions that affect a great many people and those decisions are more often than not harmful to those people. I believe that he thinks what he does is right, but I think on that he is quite wrong. Dangerously wrong.
Double epic fail quote from John Key in herald below but MSM laps it up as usual.
“The poor old cleaner that’s out there, working from midnight to six in the morning, or eight in the morning, working their socks off to get paid the minimum wage is actually paying taxes to go to the students, that’s fine as long as the students actually taking the process seriously.”
Taxpayers paid the “overwhelming majority” of the cost of sending a student to university and the students did not understand that, he told TVNZ’s Breakfast.
—————————————————-
He first criticizes students for disrespecting tax payers when his generation had it fully funded by the tax payers of the war generation , the students of the 60s,70s pissed around at uni much more than this generation by any means who part fund their education.. Then he uses a poor worker on the minimum wage that he wants to keep at that level and hurt them with gst increases and he has the audacity to use them as an example of students sponging off taxpayers? Nice one Key ! The whole National undermine and cut strategy is working a treat.
examples in the last week..
Goldcard , undermine that pensioners are ripping off system by lending out their card to tourists…(from a rumour ) restrict then cut, help Winnie get re-elected.
Student Loans, softening up ready for cuts, fee increases , students are ripping off system by using loans for non-loan purposes, as I remember they tried to paint most students with that back in the 90s.
It reminds me of using that girl for Waitangi day a few years back then dumping her as soon as he got his soundbite on tv , he’ll use the poor when it suits his argument to attack another segment of the population, classic divide and rule.
The first covers a lot of ground mostly tactical stuff, and profiles the Sec Com guy that’s leading the charge. The author knows the way the Securities Commission guy operates through this:
Disclosure
I am a convicted felon and a former CPA. As the criminal CFO of Crazy Eddie, I helped Eddie Antar and other members of his family mastermind one of the largest securities frauds uncovered during the 1980’s. I committed my crimes, simply because I could.
If it weren’t for the efforts of the FBI, SEC, Postal Inspector’s Office, US Attorney’s Office, and class action plaintiff’s lawyers who investigated, prosecuted, and sued me, I would still be the criminal CFO of Crazy Eddie today.
I do not own Goldman Sachs securities short or long. However, it did scam Goldman Sachs analyst Richard Balter about Crazy Eddie’s financial reports during my criminal days as the CFO of the company.
My research on Goldman Sachs is a freebie for securities regulators and the public in order to help me get into heaven, though I doubt that I will ever get there anyway. I personally believe that some people at Goldman Sachs may end up joining me in hell.
The second isn’t specifically about Goldman Sachs.
It’s an interesting question. If there is a “free market” of labor for CEOs, then you’d think there would be a lot of competition for the jobs. And a lot of people competing for the positions would drive down the pay. All UnitedHealth’s stockholders would have to do to avoid paying more than $1 billion to McGuire is to find somebody to do the same CEO job for half a billion. And all they’d have to do to save even more is find somebody to do the job for a mere $100 million. Or maybe even somebody who’d work the necessary sixty-hour weeks for only $1 million.
So why is executive pay so high?
I’ve examined this with both my psychotherapist hat on and my amateur economist hat on, and only one rational answer presents itself: CEOs in America make as much money as they do because there really is a shortage of people with their skill set. Such a serious shortage that some companies have to pay as much as $1 million a week or a day to have somebody successfully do the job.
But what part of being a CEO could be so difficult– so impossible for mere mortals– that it would mean that there are only a few hundred individuals in the United States capable of performing it?
In my humble opinion, it’s the sociopath part.
CEOs of community-based businesses are typically responsive to their communities and decent people. But the CEOs of the world largest corporations daily make decisions that destroy the lives of many other human beings. Only about 1 to 3 percent of us are sociopaths– people who don’t have normal human feelings and can easily go to sleep at night after having done horrific things. And of that 1 to 3 percent of sociopaths, there’s probably only a fraction of a percent with a college education. And of that tiny fraction there’s any even tinier fraction that understands how business works, particularly within any specific industry
just a note about canterbury
less than 5% of the water in our rivers is used for irrigation
the central plans plan was to build a storage dam .store high flows release when you have low flows pretty much what alot of towns use to supply drinking water .
the new irrigation scheme in north canterbury involves the same concept
as was the dam at ophiur in south canterbury
Graham: Sounds simple. Save the high water for dry times. Are there any draw backs to this such as loss of land to create a dam?
If only 5% of Canterbury water is used, then why has the water table dropped far enough to cause a polluted water take for Christchurch?
(20 years ago the water bores bubbled to the surface. Now they have to be pumped from 10+ metres.)
Will a new scheme affect the recreational use of the rivers, in particular salmon fishing/breeding?
Under the new regime will they bypass the science and go ahead so that water can be supplied to dairy farmers?
If the catchment scheme you write about is such a simple solution why has it not happened before now?
Do you think that Canterbury people should be concerned that a democratic body has been usurped?
I am not from Canterbury but I need answers.
One of Keys worst but most revealing comments ever made today regarding the part central cock up.
He said that there were a lot of differing views and this was making it hard to get anything done – he went on to sat “this is why we need the supercity”.
Read: “these bloody ratepayers want a say how their rates and taxes are spent and what they want isn’t what I want – lets set something up that means I don’t need to ask them!”
to inmac
the most polluted lake in canterbury and it has nothing to do with farmers(lake foyseth)
christchurchs water is not polluted in fact it is untrearted because is is so clean (it comes from deep wells)
water dosent just bubble up to the surface in the plains considering it is one large shingle fan it dosent work like that
the buggest influence on the water levels is how much snow we get at winter some years are worse than others
i lost my power for 21 days a few years back because of the snow
dams have been built more are planed
the central plains has been stonwalled by ecan for years thats why they have to go
farmers want store high flows and release low flows everybody wins
i personaly built 2 lakes on my farm (total area 12 hectares or 120000 sqm)
this ment that instead of irrigating 80 hectares by borderdike produceing $2000 hectare i now irrigate 260 hectares produceing $9000 hectare
do you get it now i removed 12 hectares from my farm but total gross income has gone from 400k to 2400k plus i employ 3 extra people
thanks is the word i am looking for
a another good example is the river by my farm one day went from 1cu ( 1000ls) to 290cu(290000ls) in 24 hours that happens in canterbury if you get a eastley storm
like wise norwesters can see the rakia increas by 1500cu(1500000ls)
because of the braided river systems and fall of the plains we dont get much flooding
if you were from canterbury you would understand the level of contempt that we have for ecan
the only people who are bitching are the sort who complain because it is national
the lefts version of whaleoils etc
if national had done nothing that would have moaned about do nothing key
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All smiles, I know what it takes to fool this townI'll do it 'til the sun goes downAnd all through the nighttimeOh, yeahOh, yeah, I'll tell you what you wanna hearLeave my sunglasses on while I shed a tearIt's never the right timeYeah, yeahSong by SiaLast night there was a ...
This is a guest post by Ben van Bruggen of The Urban Room,.An earlier version of this post appeared on LinkedIn. All images are by Ben. Have you noticed that there’s almost nowhere on Queen Street that invites you to stop, sit outside and enjoy a coffee, let alone ...
Hipkins says when considering tax settings and the size of government, the big question mark is over what happens with the balance between the size of the working-age population and the growing number of Kiwis over the age of 65. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMōrena. Long stories short; here’s ...
Hi,One of the things I love the most about Webworm is, well, you. The community that’s gathered around this lil’ newsletter isn’t something I ever expected when I started writing it four years ago — now the comments section is one of my favourite places on the internet. The comments ...
A delay in reappointing a top civil servant may indicate a growing nervousness within the National Party about the potential consequences of David Seymour’s Treaty Principles Bill. Dave Samuels is waiting for reappointment as the Chief Executive of Te Puni Kokiri, but POLITIK understands that what should have been a ...
A listing of 34 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, September 1, 2024 thru Sat, September 7, 2024. Story of the week Our Story of the Week is about how peopele are not born stupid but can be fooled ...
You act as thoughYou are a blind manWho's crying, crying 'boutAll the virgins that are dyingIn your habitual dreams, you knowSeems you need more sleepBut like a parrot in a flaming treeI know it's pretty hard to seeI'm beginning to wonderIf it's time for a changeSong: Phil JuddThe next line ...
The “double shocks” in post Cold War international affairs. The end of the Cold War fundamentally altered the global geostrategic context. In particular, the end of the nuclear “balance of terror” between the USA and USSR, coupled with the relaxation … Continue reading → ...
Here's a bike on Manchester St, Feilding. I took this photo on Friday night after a very nice dinner at the very nice Vietnamese restaurant, Saigon, on Manchester Street.I thought to myself, Manchester Street? Bicycle? This could be the very spot.To recap from an earlier edition: on a February night ...
Military politics as a distinct “partial regime.” Notwithstanding their peripheral status, national defense offers the raison d’être of the combat function, which their relative vulnerability makes apparent, so military forces in small peripheral democracies must be very conscious of events … Continue reading → ...
If you’re going somewhere, do you maybe take a bit of an interest in the place? Read up a bit on the history, current events, places to see - that sort of thing? Presumably, if you’re taking a trip somewhere, it’s for a reason. But what if you’re going somewhere ...
Long stories short, here’s the top six news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above between Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer:The month of August was 1.49˚C warmer than pre-industrial levels, tying with 2023 for the warmest August ever, according ...
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts and talking about the week’s news with:The Kākā’s climate correspondent on the latest climate science on rising temperatures and the debate about how to responde to climate disinformation; and special guest ...
An Infrastructure New Zealand report says we are keeping up with infrastructure better than we might have thought from the grumbling. But the challenge of providing for the future remains.I was astonished to learn that the quantity of our infrastructure has been keeping up with economic growth. Your paper almost ...
Last month, National passed a racist law requiring local councils to remove their Māori wards, or hold a referendum on them at the 2025 local body election. The final councils voted today, and the verdict is in: an overwhelming rejection. Only two councils out of 45 supported National's racist agenda ...
Open to all - happy weekend ahead, friends.Today I just want to be petty. It’s the way I imagine this chap is -Not only as a political persona. But his real-deal inner personality, in all its glory - appears to be pure pettiness & populist driven.Sometimes I wonder if Simeon ...
When National cut health spending and imposed a commissioner on Te Whatu Ora, they claimed that it was necessary because the organisation was bloated and inefficient, with "14 layers of management between the CEO and the patient". But it turns out they were simply lying: Health Minister Shane Reti’s ...
Treasury staff at work: The demand for a new 12-year Government bond was so strong, Treasury decided to double the amount of bonds it sold. Photo: Lynn GrievesonMōrena. Long stories short; here’s my top six things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Friday, September ...
Welcome to another Friday and another roundup of stories that caught our eye this week. As always, this and every post is brought to you by the Greater Auckland crew. If you like our work and you’d like to see more of it, we invite you to join our regular ...
Internal versus external security. Regardless of who rules, large countries can afford to separate external and internal security functions (even if internal control functions predominate under authoritarian regimes). In fact, given the logic of power concentration and institutional centralization of … Continue reading → ...
There's a hole in the river where her memory liesFrom the land of the living to the air and skyShe was coming to see him, but something changed her mindDrove her down to the riverThere is no returnSongwriters: Neil Finn/Eddie RaynerThe king is dead; long live the queen!Yesterday was a ...
My conclusion last week was that The Rings of Power season two represented a major improvement in the series. The writing’s just so much better, and honestly, its major problems are less the result of the current episodes and more creatures arising from season one plot-holes. I found episode three ...
As a child in the 1950s, I thought the British had won the Second World War because that’s what all our comics said. Later on, the films and comics told me that the Americans won the war. In my late teens, I found out that the Soviet Union ...
Open access notablesDiurnal Temperature RangeTrends Differ Below and Above the Melting Point, Pithan & Schatt, Geophysical Research Letters:The globally averaged diurnal temperature range (DTR) has shrunk since the mid-20th century, and climate models project further shrinking. Observations indicate a slowdown or reversal of this trend in recent decades. ...
Photo by Jenny Bess on UnsplashCome and join us for our weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kākā for an hour at 5 pm.Jump on this link on YouTube Livestream for our chat about the week’s news with special guests:5.00 pm - 5.10 pm - Bernard and ...
I was interviewed by Mike Hosking at NewstalkZB and a few other media outlets about the NZSIS Security Threat Report released recently. I have long advocated for more transparency, accountability and oversight of the NZ Intelligence Community, and although the … Continue reading → ...
Home, home again to a long warm embrace. Plenty of reasons to be glad to be back.But also, reasons for dejection.You, yes you, Simeon Brown, you odious little oik, you bible thumping petrol-pandering ratfucker weasel. You would be Reason Number One. Well, maybe first among equals with Seymour and Of-Seymour ...
The government introduced a pretty big piece of constitutional legislation today: the Parliament Bill. But rather than the contentious constitutional change (four year terms) pushed by Labour, this merely consolidates the existing legislation covering Parliament - currently scattered across four different Acts - into one piece of legislation. While I ...
Synopsis:Nicola Willis is seeking a new Treasury Boss after Dr Caralee McLiesh’s tenure ends this month. She didn’t listen to McLiesh. Will she listen to the new one?And why is Atlas Network’s Taxpayers Union chiming in?Please consider subscribing or supporting my work. Thanks, Tui.About CaraleeAt the beginning of July, Newsroom ...
The golden days of profit continue for the the Foodstuffs (Pak’n’Save and New World) and Woolworths supermarket duopoly. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMōrena. Long stories short; here’s my top six things to note in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Thursday, September 5:The Groceries Commissioner has ...
This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew DesslerI love thermodynamics. Thermodynamics is like your mom: it may not tell you what you can do, but it damn well tells you what you can’t do. I’ve written a few previous posts that include thermodynamics, like one on air capture of ...
The notion of geopolitical “periphery.” The concept of periphery used here refers strictly to what can be called the geopolitical periphery. Being on the geopolitical periphery is an analytic virtue because it makes for more visible policy reform in response … Continue reading → ...
Fill me up with soundThe world sings with me a million smiles an hourI can see me dancing on my radioI can hear you singing in the blades of grassYellow dandelions on my way to schoolBig Beautiful Sky!Song: Venus Hum.Good morning, all you lovely people, and welcome to the 700th ...
Note: The audio attached to this Webworm compliments today’s newsletter. I collected it as I met people attending a Creed concert. Their opinions may differ to mine. Read more ...
The country has imported literally thousands of nurses over the past few months yet whether they are being employed as nurses is another matter. Just what is going on with HealthNZ and it nurses is, at best, opaque, in that it will not release anything but broad general statistics and ...
Emotional Response: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon addresses mourners at the tangi of King Tuheitia on Turangawaewae Marae on Saturday, 31 August 2024.THE DEATH OF KING TUHEITIA could hardly have come at a worse time for Maoridom. The power of the Kingitanga to unify te iwi Māori was demonstrated powerfully at January’s ...
National's tax cut policies relied on stealing revenue from the ETS (previously used to fund emissions reduction) to fund tax cuts to landlords. So how's that going? Badly. Today's auction failed again, with zero units (of a possible 7.6 million) sold. Which means they have a $456 million hole in ...
A question of size. Small size generally means large vulnerability. The perception of threat is broader and often more immediate for small countries. The feeling of comparative weakness, of exposure to risk, and of potential intimidation by larger powers often … Continue reading → ...
Open to all with kind thanks to all subscribers and supporters.Today, RNZ revealed that despite MFAT advice to Nicola Willis to be very “careful and deliberate” in her communications with the South Korean government, prior to any public announcement on cancelling Kiwirail’s i-Rex, Willis instead told South Korea 26 minutes ...
The Minister of Transport’s speed obsession has this week resulted in two new consultations for 110km/h speed limits, one in Auckland and one in Christchurch. There has also been final approval of the Kapiti Expressway to move to 110km/h following an earlier consultation. While the changes will almost certainly see ...
This guest post is by Tommy de Silva, a local rangatahi and freelance writer who is passionate about making the urban fabric of Tāmaki Makaurau-Auckland more people-focused and sustainable. New Zealand’s March-April 2020 Level 4 Covid response (aka “lockdown”) was somehow both the best and worst six weeks of ...
A heart that's full up like a landfillA job that slowly kills youBruises that won't healYou look so tired, unhappyBring down the governmentThey don't, they don't speak for usI'll take a quiet lifeA handshake of carbon monoxideAnd no alarms and no surprisesThe fabulous English comedian Stewart Lee once wrote a ...
Studies show each $1 of spending on walking and cycling infrastructure produces $13 to $35 of economic benefits from higher productivity, lower healthcare costs, less congestion, lower emissions and lower fossil fuel import costs. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāMōrena. Long stories short; here’s my top six things to note ...
Aotearoa’s Youngest Member of Parliament, and Te Pāti Māori MP, Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, will travel to Montreal to accept the One Young World Politician of the Year Award next week. The One Young World Politician of the Year Award was created in 2018 to recognise the most promising young politicians between ...
The Greens welcome today’s long-coming announcement by Pharmac of consultation to remove the special authority renewal criteria for methylphenidate, dexamfetamine and modafinil and to fund lisdexamfetamine. ...
Mema Paremata for Te Tai Tokerau, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi, has reflected on the decisions made by the councils of the North amidst the government’s push to remove Māori Wards and weaken mana whenua representation. “Actions taken by the Kaipara District Council to remove Māori Wards are the embodiment of the eradication ...
On one hand, the Prime Minister has assured Aotearoa that his party will not support the Treaty Principles Bill beyond first reading, but on the other, his Government has already sought advice on holding a referendum on our founding document. ...
New Zealanders needing aged care support and the people who care for them will be worse off if the Government pushes through a flawed and rushed redesign of dementia and aged care. ...
Hundreds of jobs lost as a result of pulp mill closures in the Ruapehu District are a consequence of government inaction in addressing the shortfalls of our electricity network. ...
Te Pāti Māori Co-Leader and MP for Te Tai Hauāuru is devastated for the Ruapehu community following today’s decision to close two Winstone Pulp mills. “My heart goes out to all the workers, their whānau, and the wider Ruapehu community affected by the closure of Winstone Pulp International,” said Ngarewa-Packer. ...
National Party Ministers have a majority in Cabinet and can stop David Seymour’s Treaty Principles Bill, which even the Prime Minister has described as “divisive and unhelpful.” ...
The National Government is so determined to hide the list of potential projects that will avoid environmental scrutiny it has gagged Ministry for the Environment staff from talking about it. ...
Labour has complained to the Te Kawa Mataaho Public Service Commission about the high number of non-disclosure agreements that have effectively gagged staff at Te Whatu Ora Health NZ from talking about anything relating to their work. ...
The Green Party is once again urging the Prime Minister to abandon the Treaty Principles Bill as a letter from more than 400 Christian leaders calls for the proposed legislation to be dropped. ...
Councils across the country have now decided where they stand regarding Māori wards, with a resounding majority in favour of keeping them in what is a significant setback for the Government. ...
The National-led government has been given a clear message from the local government sector, as almost all councils reject the Government’s bid to treat Māori wards different to other wards. ...
The Green Party is unsurprised but disappointed by today’s announcement from the Government that will see our Early Childhood Centre teachers undermined and pay parity pushed further out of reach. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to intervene in the supermarket duopoly dominating our supply of groceries following today’s report from the Commerce Commission. ...
Labour backs the call from The Rainbow Support Collective members for mental health funding specifically earmarked for grassroots and peer led community organisations to be set up in a way that they are able to access. ...
As expected, the National Land Transport Programme lacks ambition for our cities and our country’s rail network and puts the majority of investment into roads. ...
Tēnā koutou katoa, Thank you for your warm welcome and for having my colleagues and I here today. Earlier you heard from the Labour Leader, Chris Hipkins, on our vision for the future of infrastructure. I want to build on his comments and provide further detail on some key elements ...
The Green Party says the Government’s new National Land Transport Programme marks another missed opportunity to take meaningful action to fight the climate crisis. ...
The Green Party is calling on the public to support the Ngutu Pare Wrybill not just in this year’s Bird of the Year competition but also in pushing back against policies that could lead to the destruction of its habitat and accelerate its extinction. ...
News that the annual number of building consents granted for new homes fell by more than 20 percent for the year ended July 2024, is bad news for the construction industry. ...
Papā te whatitiri, hikohiko te uira, i kanapu ki te rangi, i whētuki i raro rā, rū ana te whenua e. Uea te pou o tōku whare kia tū tangata he kapua whakairi nāku nā runga o Taupiri. Ko taku kiri ka tōkia ki te anu mātao. E te iwi ...
Today’s Whakaata Māori announcement is yet another colossal failure from Minister Potaka, who has turned his back on te reo Māori, forcing a channel offline, putting whānau out of jobs, and cutting Māori content, says Te Pāti Māori. “A Senior Māori Minister has turned his back on Te Reo Māori. ...
With disability communities still reeling from the diminishing of Whaikaha, a leaked document now reveals another blow with National restricting access to residential care homes. ...
Labour is calling on the Government and Mercury Energy to find a solution to the proposed Winstone Pulp mill closure and save 230 manufacturing jobs. ...
The Green Party has called out the Government for allowing Whakaata Māori to effectively collapse to a shell of its former self as job cuts and programming cuts were announced at the broadcaster today. ...
Today New Zealand First has introduced a Member’s Bill that will restore democratic control over transport management in Auckland City by disestablishing Auckland Transport (AT) and returning control to Auckland Council. The ‘Local Government (Auckland Council) (Disestablishment of Auckland Transport) Amendment Bill’ intends to restore democratic oversight, control, and accountability ...
The failure of the Prime Minister to condemn his Minister for personally attacking the judiciary is another example of this Government riding roughshod over important constitutional rules. ...
Te Pāti Māori co-leader and Member of Parliament for Waiariki, which includes Rotorua, has written to Rotorua Lakes Councillors requesting they immediately stop sewerage piping works at Lake Rotokākahi in Rotorua. “Mana whenua have been urging Rotorua Lakes Council to stop works and look at alternative plans to protect the ...
Patient care could suffer as a result of further cuts to the health system, which could lose thousands of staff who keep our hospitals and clinics running. ...
The Green Party says the latest statistics on child poverty in this country highlight the callous approach that the Government is taking on this issue of national shame. ...
The path to faster cancer treatment, an increase in immunisation rates, shorter stays in emergency departments and quick assessment and treatments when you are sick has been laid out today. Health Minister Dr Shane Reti has revealed details of how the ambitious health targets the Government has set will be ...
The coalition Government is delivering targeted and structured literacy supports to accelerate learning for struggling readers. From Term 1 2025, $33 million of funding for Reading Recovery and Early Literacy Support will be reprioritised to interventions which align with structured approaches to teaching. “Structured literacy will change the way children ...
With two months until the national apology to survivors of abuse in care, expressions of interest have opened for survivors wanting to attend. “The Prime Minister will deliver a national apology on Tuesday 12 November in Parliament. It will be a very significant day for survivors, their families, whānau and ...
Ehara taku toa i te toa takitahi, engari he toa takitini kē - My success is not mine alone but is the from the strength of the many. Aotearoa New Zealand’s top young speakers are an inspiration for all New Zealanders to learn more about the depth and beauty conveyed ...
The coalition Government is driving confidence in reading and writing in the first years of schooling. “From the first time children step into the classroom, we’re equipping them and teachers with the tools they need to be brilliant in literacy. “From 1 October, schools and kura with Years 0-3 will receive ...
Labour’s misinformation about firearms law is dangerous and disappointing, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee says. “Labour and Ginny Andersen have repeatedly said over the past few days that the previous Labour Government completely banned semi-automatic firearms in 2019 and that the Coalition Government is planning to ‘reintroduce’ them. ...
The Government is taking immediate action on a number of steps around New Zealand’s response to mpox, including improving access to vaccine availability so people who need it can do so more easily, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti and Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. “Mpox is obviously a ...
Associate Justice Minister David Seymour says Cabinet has agreed to the next steps for the Treaty Principles Bill. “The Treaty Principles Bill provides an opportunity for Parliament, rather than the courts, to define the principles of the Treaty, including establishing that every person is equal before the law,” says Mr Seymour. “Parliament ...
Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins today announced a programme to drive Artificial Intelligence (AI) uptake among New Zealand businesses. “The AI Activator will unlock the potential of AI for New Zealand businesses through a range of support, including access to AI research experts, technical assistance, AI tools and resources, ...
The independent rapid review into the Wairoa flooding event on 26 June 2024 has been released, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell announced today. “We welcome the review’s findings and recommendations to strengthen Wairoa's resilience against future events,” Ms ...
The Government is sending a clear message to central government agencies that they must prioritise paying invoices in a timely manner, Small Business and Manufacturing Minister Andrew Bayly says. Data released today promotes transparency by publishing the payment times of each central government agency. This data will be published quarterly ...
E te māngai o te Whare Pāremata, kua riro māku te whakaputa i te waka ki waho moana. E te Pirimia tēnā koe.Mr Speaker, it is my privilege to take this adjournment kōrero forward. Prime Minister – thank you for your leadership. Taupiri te maunga Waikato te awa Te Wherowhero ...
Inland Revenue can begin processing GST returns for businesses affected by a historic legislative drafting error, Revenue Minister Simon Watts says. “Inland Revenue has become aware of a legislative drafting error in the GST adjustment rules after changes were made in 2023 which were meant to simplify the process. This ...
More than 80 per cent of New Zealand women being tested have opted for a world-leading self-test for cervical screening since it became available a year ago. Minister of Health Dr Shane Reti and Associate Minister Casey Costello, in her responsibility for Women’s Health, say it’s fantastic to have such ...
Regulation Minister David Seymour welcomes the Ministry for Regulation’s first Strategic Intentions document, which sets out how the Ministry will carry out its work and deliver on its purpose. “I have set up the Ministry for Regulation with three tasks. One, to cut existing red tape with sector reviews. Two, ...
The Education Minister has established a Māori Education Ministerial Advisory Group made up of experienced practitioners to help improve outcomes for Māori learners. “This group will provide independent advice on all matters related to Māori education in both English medium and Māori medium settings. It will focus on the most impactful ways we can lift ...
The Government has welcomed the findings of the recent statutory review into the Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation and the New Zealand Superannuation Fund, Minister of Finance Nicola Willis says. The 5-yearly review, conducted on behalf of Treasury and tabled in Parliament today, found the Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins today welcomed the first of five new C-130J-30 Hercules to arrive in New Zealand at a ceremony at the Royal New Zealand Air Force’s Base Auckland, Whenuapai. “This is an historic day for our New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) and our nation. The new Hercules fleet ...
Today, September 10 is World Suicide Prevention Day, a time to reflect on New Zealand’s confronting suicide statistics, Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “Every death by suicide is a tragedy – a tragedy that affects far too many of our families and communities in New Zealand. We must do ...
Scholarships awarded to 27 health care students is another positive step forward to boost the future rural health workforce, Associate Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “All New Zealanders deserve timely access to quality health care and this Government is committed to improving health outcomes, particularly for the one in five ...
Associate Health Minister with responsibility for Pharmac David Seymour has welcomed the increased availability of medicines for Kiwis resulting from the Government’s increased investment in Pharmac. “Pharmac operates independently, but it must work within the budget constraints set by the Government,” says Mr Seymour. “When our Government assumed office, New ...
Sport & Recreation Minister Chris Bishop has congratulated New Zealand's Paralympic Team at the conclusion of the Paralympic Games in Paris. “The NZ Paralympic Team's success in Paris included fantastic performances, personal best times, New Zealand records and Oceania records all being smashed - and of course, many Kiwis on ...
A Crown Response Office is being established within the Public Service Commission to drive the Government’s response to the Royal Commission into Abuse in Care. “The creation of an Office within a central Government agency was a key recommendation by the Royal Commission’s final report. “It will have the mandate ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says passport processing has returned to normal, and the Department of Internal Affairs [Department] is now advising customers to allow up to two weeks to receive their passport. “I am pleased that passport processing is back at target service levels and the Department ...
Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister has today announced three new appointments and one reappointment to the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) board. Tracey Berry, Nicholas Hegan and Mariette van Ryn have been appointed for a five-year term ending in August 2029, while Chris Swasbrook, who has served as a board member ...
Attorney-General Hon Judith Collins today announced the appointment of two new District Court judges. The appointees, who will take up their roles at the Manukau Court and the Auckland Court in the Accident Compensation Appeal Jurisdiction, are: Jacqui Clark Judge Clark was admitted to the bar in 1988 after graduating ...
Associate Minister of Finance David Seymour is encouraged by significant improvements to overseas investment decision timeframes, and the enhanced interest from investors as the Government continues to reform overseas investment. “There were about as many foreign direct investment applications in July and August as there was across the six months ...
New Zealand has accepted an invitation to join US-led multi-national space initiative Operation Olympic Defender, Defence Minister Judith Collins announced today. Operation Olympic Defender is designed to coordinate the space capabilities of member nations, enhance the resilience of space-based systems, deter hostile actions in space and reduce the spread of ...
Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard says that a new economic impact analysis report reinforces this government’s commitment to ‘stamp out’ any New Zealand foot and mouth disease incursion. “The new analysis, produced by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, shows an incursion of the disease in New Zealand would have ...
5 September 2024 The Government is progressing further reforms to financial services to make it easier for Kiwis to access finance when they need it, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Financial services are foundational for economic success and are woven throughout our lives. Without access to finance our ...
As Kiingi Tuheitia Pootatau Te Wherowhero VII is laid to rest today, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has paid tribute to a leader whose commitment to Kotahitanga will have a lasting impact on our country. “Kiingi Tuheitia was a humble leader who served his people with wisdom, mana and an unwavering ...
Forestry Minister Todd McClay today announced proposals to reform the resource management system that will provide greater certainty for the forestry sector and help them meet environmental obligations. “The Government has committed to restoring confidence and certainty across the sector by removing unworkable regulatory burden created by the previous ...
A major shake-up of building products which will make it easier and more affordable to build is on the way, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Today we have introduced legislation that will improve access to a wider variety of quality building products from overseas, giving Kiwis more choice and ...
On the occasion of the official visit by the Right Honourable Prime Minister Christopher Luxon of New Zealand to the Republic of Korea from 4 to 5 September 2024, a summit meeting was held between His Excellency President Yoon Suk Yeol of the Republic of Korea (hereinafter referred to as ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Republic of Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol. “Korea and New Zealand are likeminded democracies and natural partners in the Indo Pacific. As such, we have decided to advance discussions on elevating the bilateral relationship to a Comprehensive ...
Results released today from the International Visitor Survey (IVS) confirm international tourism is continuing to bounce back, Tourism and Hospitality Minister Matt Doocey says. The IVS results show that in the June quarter, international tourism contributed $2.6 billion to New Zealand’s economy, an increase of 17 per cent on last ...
The Government is moving to review and update national level policy directives that impact the primary sector, as part of its work to get Wellington out of farming. “The primary sector has been weighed down by unworkable and costly regulation for too long,” Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. “That is ...
The first annual grocery report underscores the need for reforms to cut red tape and promote competition, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “The report paints a concerning picture of the $25 billion grocery sector and reinforces the need for stronger regulatory action, coupled with an ambitious, economy-wide ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour says the Government has listened to the early childhood education sector’s calls to simplify paying ECE relief teachers. Today two simple changes that will reduce red tape for ECEs are being announced, in the run-up to larger changes that will come in time from the ...
Regulation Minister David Seymour says there has been a strong response to the Ministry for Regulation’s public consultation on the early childhood education regulatory review, affirming the need for action in reducing regulatory burden. “Over 2,320 submissions have been received from parents, teachers, centre owners, child advocacy groups, unions, research ...
The Government is concerned by news of a cyber attack linked to the Chinese government against the Pacific Islands Forum secretariat , with the Asian superpower vehemently denying the claims.Newsroom understands the forum secretariat called in Australian cybersecurity experts in February over a potential cyber attack against its network.After investigating ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rick Sarre, Emeritus Professor of Law and Criminal Justice, University of South Australia Independent Sydney MP Alex Greenwich has been awarded $140,000 in his defamation suit against One Nation New South Wales leader Mark Latham over a homophobic tweet. Latham posted ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fron Jackson-Webb, Deputy Editor and Senior Health Editor Drazen Zigic/ShutterstockOne in four Australian children aged two to 17 are classified as above a healthy weight, based on their body mass index (or BMI, which is weight divided by height squared). ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gemma Blackwood, Lecturer, Media, University of Tasmania Madman Director Paul Goldman’s new Australian film Kid Snow is set in the gritty, male-dominated world of tent boxing in outback Western Australia. The film presents itself as a reflection on the intergenerational ...
Phitcha, the star of the latest episode of Takeout Kids, tells Alex Casey about coming of age in the small tourist town of Akaroa. It’s very hard not to be charmed by Akaroa, the small Banks Peninsula town with a population of just 770 people. Best known for frolicking dolphins, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Moon, Professor of History, Auckland University of Technology Getty Images There is power in paper. Anyone who denies the potency of history’s dusty documents needs only look at the current incendiary debates over proposed legislation tackling the “principles” of the ...
An in-control Kamala Harris won the night by baiting her opponent into increasingly incoherent rage. And then Taylor Swift weighed in. This is an excerpt from The World Bulletin, our weekly global current affairs newsletter exclusively for Spinoff Members. Sign up here. Trump takes the bait The debate’s first question ...
Freya Silas Finch is a multidisciplinary queer and trans artist working across theatre, film and performance art. They have taken part in the film intensive A Wave in the Ocean, run by Dame Jane Campion, and are in rehearsals for their solo show A Slow Burlesque with Silo Theatre. What ...
Calculations undertaken by the NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi show that the Government will have wasted millions of dollars to take the already failed Treaty Principles Bill forward. “This Bill is already dead, yet it keeps taking investment away from bigger ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rob Brooks, Scientia Professor of Evolutionary Ecology; Academic Lead of UNSW’s Grand Challenges Program, UNSW Sydney arvitalyaart/shutterstock If you’re a paid subscriber to ChatGPT, you may have noticed the artificial intelligence (AI) large language model has recently started to sound more ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rob Nicholls, Senior Research Associate in Media and Communications, University of Sydney ShutterstockThis is the fourth piece in a series on the Future of Australian media. You can read the rest of the series here. We are part-way ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Nagel, Associate Professor – Child Development and Learning, University of the Sunshine Coast Lipatova Maryna/Shutterstock , CC BY As someone who has spent most of his professional life studying how children develop, I’m often asked by parents (especially mums) why ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Blaschke, Honorary Research Associate, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Getty Images Urban green spaces are disappearing from New Zealand cities, at a time when denser housing is being planned in many areas. Overall, the total area of ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Denniss, Adjunct Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University Apparently, the world is about to get its first trillionaire. A report from the business intelligence agency Informa Connect says, at his present rate of wealth accumulation, tech billionaire Elon ...
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So, what about that poll then? All over for Goff? Time for Jones to step up? Or what about Street?
yeah,funny how it’s so at odds with the Roy Morgan. Guess we’ll see what happens with the RM this Friday.
Looking forward to your predictable spin on the wireless this morning, Matthew. Always good for a chuckle.
genuine question – do they pay you and campbell anything or is it seen as a promotional opportunity for yourselves?
Nah Matthew
The day the Labour Party starts taking advice from you is the day that we all give up.
So how long do you give Smile and Wave? The activists amongst the right (all 5 of them) seem to be getting awfully frustrated with him.
The day National took is advice they gave up as well. what followed was the racist orewa speech.
Hey Matt – talking head and spinster…
I forgot to add the spinster into my comment talking about this yesterday. Even more predicable than a talking head.
Spinster. 🙂
Colmar Brunton has had National up to 57% and Labour down to 28%. The latest poll has National 54% and Labour 33%. So what? Now that National is not getting any higher than 53-54% for a while and Labour has been consolidating at 33-34% for a while means one thing — that National can only lose support and Labour gain support from here. Roy Morgan polls show a trend of National losing support and Labour gaining, and this Colmar Brunton confirms that. It’s not big swings yet, but steady erosion of National’s support is what is needed and happening now. It’s still a long way yet to Election 2011 and I think it’s all looking good for the left.
And don’t overlook the fact that historically under MMP, Labour has governed with 39-40% of the vote. You only need about a small 6% increase for Labour — and that’s easily attainable.
So, look at the trends — and that’s looking great for Labour.
Ok. So assuming Labour gain this 6% you reckon they need entirely at National’s expense, how do they go about governing with a marginal Green party, and having alienated the mÄori party, against National on 47-48% — almost a clear majority on its own?
The calculus you refer to held true before the last election, when Labour had reasonably strong possible allies. It doesn’t hold so true now that they’ve spent the term so far losing friends and alienating people. Having adopted a strategy of trying to marginalise the mÄori party, Labour needs to win big on its own in order to make something of the coming election. Either that, or it needs to set about mending those relationships. I don’t see either happening at present, and consequently I don’t see Labour being even remotely viable in 2011, based on their current track.
I’d love to be wrong, but I’m incredulous that anyone would try to argue that being on the wrong end of a ~20 point margin with fewer minor-party support options is “looking great”.
L
Actually, I think part of the problem is the Greens. Their MoU with National would have put a few percent of people who would have voted for them off. My own political alignment is closer to the Greens than anyone else and yet I’m considering voting for Labour simply because of that MoU.
A bit of National’s current polling support is soft. That’s where Winston comes in. If he manages to get back in, and ACT is kept out, that dramatically makes it so much easier.
Consider also that the 33% support is traditional leftish Labour support. A bit of the Labour centre support has drifted to National — that’s why their support has been inflated in recent times. Phil Goff and Annette King are a lot more acceptable to centre Labour supporters than Helen was, and so there’ll inevitably be some drifting back from National to Labour of the centre supporters.
About mending fences, there’s nothing to worry about. Remember, this is politics — there’s no permanent enemies in politics. The Maori Party will go with whoever looks likely to govern. Relationships are always mended at Election time when necessary 🙂
Finally, look at the UK Election now, poll numbers can change quite quickly come Election time.
The election can’t come quick enough? Don’t worry about Phil- these days voters can swing quickly given they have no real ideological allegiences.
Matthew, you may be interested in explaining how Tory poster boy Cameron has dropped 10% support in the last two months now that the pressure has come on. Being the bland popularist nice guy works fine until some supercedes you ( as Clegg seems to have done). Time for him to come up with some economic policies (if he has any).
There are still 18 months to go to get Phil up from 8%. He won’t be dumped till Sept 2011. Don’t know who would put their hand up to be the sacrificial lamb. Probably some one with overriding ego and ambition such as Cunliffe or Robertson to add two more names to the mix..
Always amuses me that the right are the only people bothering to speculate. It seems to be the only area that they have any dreams in that are not concerned with profit (and the rules of acquisition).
Unusually, some are even speculating outside the short-term into the medium-term (although they’d probably refer to it as the long-term). But not Fisiani – who is still definitely a short-term only thinker…
Lynn, I reckon it’s because everything they expected the NACTS to do (tax cuts and an end to the nanny state, mostly) has turned out to be a pack of lies.
They want to make predictions about the NACTS (their govt) but it brings a nasty bitter taste to their mouths and the sting of rejection to their cheeks.
Loved reading yesterdays 2015 article and responses, I did not get involved as my views are pretty well set. Which brought me to watching the news and the Polls. Hmm, here we are in the calm at the eye of the hurricane, all hell about to be let loose. And we aspire to this crew of scheisters. Why wide eyed do we walk so calmly to their guillotine? It says more about the people than it does for their elected ones.
It should be remembered that Kiwis are being fed smile and wave slops from our media, nothing has change from the election campaign.
We have past National Party candidates on morning breakfast making extreme right wing comments which then make Mr Smile and wave look quite mild and middle of the road, top it off with a bit of blokey back slapping and it all feels good.
However in my opinion once Nationals policies start to bite and Kiwis feel the impact things will change. At the moment Key has promised big a bit like a TV weight loss program, delivered nothing (No weight loss) and people are starting to wonder how long will it take till I see a positive change. Its only time before people start going hey this is not working, I have bought a TV promo lie,now how do I get rid of this piece of exercise equipment, Hmmm Trademe anyone?
Thanks Craig, that just about sums up the effects of good marketing, maybe we have got the habit of consumerism down pat, the promise of personal gratification a la Jenny Craig. Now how do we market us old fat ugly bastards doing things en masse (communally)?
Just a thought that needs fleshing out but…
…if the proposed tax cuts to top earners is meant to stimulate investment into job creation schemes. Does anyone think Key and English (as top earning beneficiaries) will use their windfall to personally create sustainable employment for someone or do you think they will use the extra dosh to invest in stocks/shares or whatever to increase their personal wealth ?
I’m pickin the latter, but as leaders promoting the ‘trickle down’ theory, shouldn’t they be leading by example rather than siphoning off public money to subsidise their higher cost of living. It’s not like they need the helping hand of what is essentially ‘social welfare’ is it ?
About time they put their money where their mouth is as opposed to expecting others to do it for them or taking money from other peoples mouths…i reckon
but but but Key donates a large amount of his salary to charity.
(Although no-one can say how much or what charity or provide any info to suggest that this is at all true).
Key donates a large amount of his salary to charity.
yeah i’ve heard that, so is it possible to trace the original source for that particular urban myth ?
As we all know though, charity begins at home. Just ask Blinglish who set up his home as a ‘charity’ and got us via the state to donate to it. Maybe thats what Key means ?
But if not creating real jobs, does anyone think they will create a scholarship ? Once again I can see Blinglish setting one up for his high achieving daughter to subsidise her further education while writing off some tax at the same time.
Fair enough too if you think it is everyones duty to avoid paying as much tax as they can. I think if you can afford to pay more you should. It enriches your soul and brightens your ora 🙂
“is it possible to trace the original source for that particular urban myth ?”
It stems from an offhand and typically vague remark from Key during the election campaign. He said if he became PM he would probably donate “a good part” of his salary to charity.
This meaningless platitude has chinese-whispered through the wingnuts to the numbnuts and most of them now think that Key donates most – if not all – of his salary.
It gets claimed here every couple of months but no-one has ever provided a shred of evidence that he donates anything at all.
Kia ora pollywog
An long time Nat said to me last week “You know, I thought Key was the one, but he’s turned out to be pretty disappointing, there’s no sort of substance there “. The tide will turn against him, if not among the true blues, it will certainly amonst the waivers, even back to Winston.
“You know, I thought Key was the one, but he’s turned out to be pretty disappointing, there’s no sort of substance there “
I’m reminded of the proverbial boy in mans undies.
Or the boy who stumbles onto a (world) stage, smiles and smiles and tries to find somewhere to put his hands, and struggles to find something meaningful to say.
. . . lets not forget the boy who stumbled off the stage at a Chinese New Year function, at least then there was a young Chaplin look about John Key; these days its more David Brent.
re- Key = Brent: This scene in particular springs to mind.
What about paying politicians on a percentage of the movement in jobs and national earnings. If we have a drop as of now, we naturally have to make cut backs, and seeing that they are often the root cause of them, then its only right that they should get less in their pay packets. But even if they don’t cause the drop, it is essential that more frugality reigns at times of downturn, they are prescribing it for others, we would like equality of frugality please.
We should also have a victim support approach with politicians making reparations for doing a rotten job if they could have done differently. Otherwise we just get political recidivism ad infinitum.
Well after hiding in the bush for a couple weeks the first newspaper arrives at the doorstep with a piece by Nick Smith on why they had to zap Ecan.
What a poorly written piece of drivel. Full of broad sweeping generalisations, repitition and half-baked facts.
The man can’t even write a decent piece of opinion / justification on his recent actions.
Drove the entire east coast yesterday. Southland will be the next troublesome spot. Did you know that water takes on the Mataura / Pomahaka catchments have increased 40-fold since the first North Island cows arrived about 15 years ago? Yes that’s right – 40-fold.
Maybe it’s time to light up that old cry – if you can’t beat ’em join ’em.
Yeah – it’s like a freeezing cold Waikato now.
Ridiculous, unsustainable – and cruel to cows.
Listening to discussion about the outcomes of the decision to not send Maori to play rugby in South Africa last century. I thought I recognised the voice, very similar to Winston’s delivery – it was Wayne Peters, his brother. The Peters family must have some good ideas about raising youngsters to have two such confident and fluent speakers in public life. I wonder about the rest of their siblings – whether they are all achievers in their chosen areas.
This water thing – it’s like an ugly gold rush. They had rancher v farmer battles over water in the United States in the past. We could see multiple aggro here with more than just two farmers arguing over access. The idea of copying the irrigation of bare, parched land for food as we see in the USA may become a necessity to provide nutritious crops. Our ability to do this would be pre-empted if we give allocate all the water asset to increasingly aggressive and demanding dairy farmers.
A farmer was saying recently how hard it is to protect himself against theft and butchering of his farm animals. The thieves cut the cables laid to his surveillance equipment. If there is added the fact that a farmer has rights over water for his place while others go without, I think there will be anger and resentment and that could lead to more than animal theft.
People close to us (irrigating dairy farmers no less) had their irrigation infratstructure sabotaged in the recent past. There is no doubt conflict will occur.
Do you think the farmers of NZ know what had happenned in the Great Artesian Basin in Australia following massive irrigation? Why would they want to repeat such envirnmental annihilation here? Answer: quick income and capital value rises.
Short term thinkers our farmers.
People are always getting fired up about white collar business speculation and damage. I would suggest that NZ farmers are the most speculative of all. And NZ farmers have done more damage to NZ than anyone else (forget mining. in comparison farmers are the destruction experts).
This is a reality.
A farmer was saying recently how hard it is to protect himself against theft and butchering of his farm animals.
Shit…has it got to that stage already ? Where poor people who can’t afford food are stealing from farmers ?
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/3592454/Thieves-cost-vege-growers-and-packers-a-fortune
I guess so…not a good look eh (especially if the farmers catch them.) There’ll be blood in the fields as well as the streets especially if a ‘matesy’ judicial decision in the farmers favour could see tensions escalate.
East coasters are known for burning shit down if it doesnt sit well with the ‘local’ view on things
Was reflecting on this at the local park/pond recently: you can tell we’re not in a properly brutal recession because there are still hundreds of ducks, fat and friendly enough that they’re easily catchable if you bring a few crusts of bread with you. When the ducks start disappearing, then you’ll know things are getting really bad — like Soviet-era bad.
L
Well that’s ok then. As long as we keep comparing ourselves to the poorest, most brutal societies in the history of everything ever we’ll be fine. 🙂
Heh, yeah. I reflected on that, too: the dissonance from those who insist on comparing our economic status to that of the wealthiest countries in the world and saying that we come up short, while arguing that things could be worse because our poorest are not as badly-off as the poorest of the third world.
L
http://www.countercurrents.org/orlov131108.htm
Matthew Hooten. Keep your long and sticky beak nose out of the management of other political parties.
VTO: “the first newspaper arrives at the doorstep with a piece by Nick Smith on why they had to zap Ecan.”
I am still at a loss. Does the canning of Ecan mean that rights to water from Canterbury water, can be speeded and extended under the new controllers?
I understood that the reason that water extraction for irrigation was stopped by Ecan was because they already reached the limit of sustainability.
When there is a really serious drought in Canterbury, and there will be, what happens to dairy farms if there is no more water?
Ianmac, the canning doesn’t mean more water can be taken. But it is understood by most, given National’s post-election stated desire for more irrigation and water storage in Canterbury, that that will be the outcome.
And yes the upper limits of water extraction have been reached in many areas. You only need to look at the rivers and their flows (or lack of) to see that.
What will happen to dairy farms when there is no more water? I guess they will have to go back to what nature intended…
Canterbury, environmentally, is doomed. Thanks farmers.
Well, actually, it’s the farms that are doomed. I just hope that we don’t have to pay the farmers for their fuck up.
Interesting item on vege stealing from Gisborne in link from pollywog. Makes me think of remembered business loss that Gisborne, and its workers, suffered. A tomato processing business initiative named Cedenco was doing good business and expanding yet ended up collapsed, all lost. This link to the Gisborne Herald will tell you more.
http://www.gisborneherald.co.nz/article/?id=14615
It was sold to an Australian firm (or merrged). Ended up under a US firm. Story goes –
“In 2006 it bought Circle Pacific, a Hawke’s Bay integrated vegetable producer, packer, processor and exporter operation. Later in 2006 it bought Hastings-based squash processing company Southmark Quality Foods. The two Hawke’s Bay businesses were later merged.
In August 2008 Cedenco was in the news as senior executives of SK Foods became caught up in an American probe into corruption and bribery. In July 2009 SK Foods was sold out of bankruptcy and later that month announced it would close its retort factory in Gisborne.”
Probably only some of those jobs were replaced by some new initiative, and vege stealing might follow from this. It perhaps ties in with this business lost to the area.
Here in NZ we must invest in our own firms, stop them being swallowed up in bigger company’s machinations. There is short term capital gain when an entrepreneur sells out and then who knows what happens to the previously promising business. It is a continuing story – building up and selling out. The owner can’t be blamed, but we need to become more savvy and back our own good businesses to keep them going and find customers and keep the wealth we earn circulating (because we need to understand the economic term The Multiplier).
In my old Baumol and Blinder it revises the theory and says that you only get twoand half further spends from each dollar spent not five as had been stated, but that still has significant effect in widening business opportunities and employment. We need to grow useful businesses and keep them and their returns in our hands. Unfortunately that idea has never percolated out into the comfortable middle class who have chosen to invest heavily with financial speculators who must have felt like well-fed mosquitoes in a nudist colony.
To carry on the agricultural theme here. Rent Seeking Cotton Farmers of the World Unite!
Obama’s America just keeps on getting more bizarre. Who said central planners aren’t rational?
Everything in the usa can’t be corrected by Obama. He looks more like a Don Quixote than recent others, and it might be that he can do some good.
He’s by and large doing the same old shit that his predecessors did. He may do some good, in fact he has done some good, but that’s so overwhelmingly outweighed by the harmful and deplorable things he’s done. Sooner or later you’re going to have to admit to what Obama is.
Obama is the product of a capitalist society run by the capitalists for the capitalists. Obama won’t change anything because he’s not in charge.
He does power to change many things. It’s just ignorant to deny that. He may not be “in charge” because in any society power is quite diffuse, but he certainly has an immense amount of power over the lives of others. He consciously and knowingly makes decisions that affect a great many people and those decisions are more often than not harmful to those people. I believe that he thinks what he does is right, but I think on that he is quite wrong. Dangerously wrong.
Double epic fail quote from John Key in herald below but MSM laps it up as usual.
“The poor old cleaner that’s out there, working from midnight to six in the morning, or eight in the morning, working their socks off to get paid the minimum wage is actually paying taxes to go to the students, that’s fine as long as the students actually taking the process seriously.”
Taxpayers paid the “overwhelming majority” of the cost of sending a student to university and the students did not understand that, he told TVNZ’s Breakfast.
—————————————————-
He first criticizes students for disrespecting tax payers when his generation had it fully funded by the tax payers of the war generation , the students of the 60s,70s pissed around at uni much more than this generation by any means who part fund their education.. Then he uses a poor worker on the minimum wage that he wants to keep at that level and hurt them with gst increases and he has the audacity to use them as an example of students sponging off taxpayers? Nice one Key ! The whole National undermine and cut strategy is working a treat.
examples in the last week..
Goldcard , undermine that pensioners are ripping off system by lending out their card to tourists…(from a rumour ) restrict then cut, help Winnie get re-elected.
Student Loans, softening up ready for cuts, fee increases , students are ripping off system by using loans for non-loan purposes, as I remember they tried to paint most students with that back in the 90s.
Jonkey will say anything to give the rich another tax cut.
It reminds me of using that girl for Waitangi day a few years back then dumping her as soon as he got his soundbite on tv , he’ll use the poor when it suits his argument to attack another segment of the population, classic divide and rule.
Re Goldman Sachs: two links.
The first covers a lot of ground mostly tactical stuff, and profiles the Sec Com guy that’s leading the charge. The author knows the way the Securities Commission guy operates through this:
The second isn’t specifically about Goldman Sachs.
“Probably only a fraction of the population with a college education”
-Nah, privilege isn’t associated with greater goodness IMO
The Unconscious Civilization is a good place to start.
just a note about canterbury
less than 5% of the water in our rivers is used for irrigation
the central plans plan was to build a storage dam .store high flows release when you have low flows pretty much what alot of towns use to supply drinking water .
the new irrigation scheme in north canterbury involves the same concept
as was the dam at ophiur in south canterbury
Graham: Sounds simple. Save the high water for dry times. Are there any draw backs to this such as loss of land to create a dam?
If only 5% of Canterbury water is used, then why has the water table dropped far enough to cause a polluted water take for Christchurch?
(20 years ago the water bores bubbled to the surface. Now they have to be pumped from 10+ metres.)
Will a new scheme affect the recreational use of the rivers, in particular salmon fishing/breeding?
Under the new regime will they bypass the science and go ahead so that water can be supplied to dairy farmers?
If the catchment scheme you write about is such a simple solution why has it not happened before now?
Do you think that Canterbury people should be concerned that a democratic body has been usurped?
I am not from Canterbury but I need answers.
One of Keys worst but most revealing comments ever made today regarding the part central cock up.
He said that there were a lot of differing views and this was making it hard to get anything done – he went on to sat “this is why we need the supercity”.
Read: “these bloody ratepayers want a say how their rates and taxes are spent and what they want isn’t what I want – lets set something up that means I don’t need to ask them!”
to inmac
the most polluted lake in canterbury and it has nothing to do with farmers(lake foyseth)
christchurchs water is not polluted in fact it is untrearted because is is so clean (it comes from deep wells)
water dosent just bubble up to the surface in the plains considering it is one large shingle fan it dosent work like that
the buggest influence on the water levels is how much snow we get at winter some years are worse than others
i lost my power for 21 days a few years back because of the snow
dams have been built more are planed
the central plains has been stonwalled by ecan for years thats why they have to go
farmers want store high flows and release low flows everybody wins
i personaly built 2 lakes on my farm (total area 12 hectares or 120000 sqm)
this ment that instead of irrigating 80 hectares by borderdike produceing $2000 hectare i now irrigate 260 hectares produceing $9000 hectare
do you get it now i removed 12 hectares from my farm but total gross income has gone from 400k to 2400k plus i employ 3 extra people
thanks is the word i am looking for
a another good example is the river by my farm one day went from 1cu ( 1000ls) to 290cu(290000ls) in 24 hours that happens in canterbury if you get a eastley storm
like wise norwesters can see the rakia increas by 1500cu(1500000ls)
because of the braided river systems and fall of the plains we dont get much flooding
if you were from canterbury you would understand the level of contempt that we have for ecan
the only people who are bitching are the sort who complain because it is national
the lefts version of whaleoils etc
if national had done nothing that would have moaned about do nothing key