Open Mike 25/08/2017

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1. swordfish 1

   25 August 2017 at 6:16 am

   Latest analysis from the New Zealand Election Study’s Jack Vowles (hot off the Press and just launched by Helen Clark at Victoria University) raises a series of interesting points about Green support:

   (1) It appears to confirm what I’ve been arguing for quite some time (eg here … /breaking-news-russell-norman-resigning-from-parliament/#comment-1069442 and here … /the-political-machinations-of-the-flag-debate/#comment-1074477) … namely: that – far from being a Party supported solely (or even largely) by the affluent urban upper-middle classes – the Green support-base is, in fact, quite diverse: the party draws fairly similar levels of support from the various socio-economic strata. Indeed, if anything, the 2014 NZES suggests the Greens drew slightly greater support from people on lower incomes with few if any assets than from those on high incomes.

   Which isn’t to say the Green Constituency sees itself as subjectively “working class” exactly … their voters tend to eschew any class identity. They’re also more likely than average to be university educated.

   (2) The Greens’ dependable core-vote is probably smaller than most pundits assume.

   The NZES flow-of-the-Vote data suggests less than half of 2011 Green voters remained loyal at the 2014 General Election. About a quarter of 2011 Greens swung to Labour, with a little less than one fifth going to the Nats and NZF (each).

   However, there were significant reciprocal swings. The Greens lost more to Labour than they gained from the Larger Centre-Left Party, but most of the vote inflow that the Green’s did receive in 2014 came from former Labour supporters as well as from previous Non-voters – thus largely (but not entirely) compensating for their lost 2011 votes.

   As Vowles argues: ” … the apparent stability of Green voting support is something of an illusion”

   In other words … not the same 11% voting Green in 2011 and 2014. Around 5% of all voters (just under half of 2011 Greens) voted Green in both Elections, the rest were new.

   And this isn’t actually anything new – go back to earlier NZES polling (late 90s / early zeros Elections) and you’ll see the same inherent volatility in the Green vote.

   Clearly, at the very least a large minority (and quite possibly a majority) of Green voters in both 2011 and 2014 had been Labour supporters at some time in the recent past. A lot of movement back and forth between the two parties over consecutive Elections.

   So, I’d argue the Greens’ base vote is more like 5%.

   Jacindamania + the Greens turmoil in this campaign will probably mean the Party won’t receive its usual amount of (significant and vital) Labour-supporter froth on top of that core vote. Probably just enough to raise it to 6-8%.

   NOTE: If the Greens are averaging anything less than about 6.5% in the final round of pre-Election Polls then I myself am going to be forced to switch my Party Vote from Labour to the Vegetable Rights and Peace Party, just to ensure they return.

   (3) The NZES confirms once again (as in previous NZES studies) that Green voters view themselves – and are viewed by others – as ideologically to the Left of Labour. The Greens constituency is essentially Left-libertarian (there are relatively few Blue-Greens among the Party’s support-base), with a particularly marked emphasis not on the liberal attitudes that most pundits might assume but rather on the economic Left dimension. While Social libertarians are certainly much more likely to vote Green than Social authoritarians … holding Left-wing economic views is still around 3 times more important in predicting Green electoral support than moral liberalism.

   So the idea popular among pundits that there exists some kind of mis-match between the Greens’ left-wing social justice policies and their supposedly affluent, centrist, morally-liberal but purely environmentalist urban support-base really holds no water.

   • Roy 1.1

     25 August 2017 at 7:20 am

     I went to the GP fundraiser of Inconvenient Sequel. If I was ever wavering, I’m not now. They need to be in government, we’re long out of time re climate change. The social consequences will be massive hence the pointlessness of being blue-green.

     • Dspare 1.1.1

       25 August 2017 at 9:12 am

       swordfish
       Interesting analysis, though it’d be good to see the numbers firsthand. Is there an online database, or is it solely a printed academic work that has be be purchased?

       I do think that the GP have moved on a bit from this:

       • roy cartland 1.1.1.1

         25 August 2017 at 10:17 am

         Heh, if anything they’re as much this:

       • swordfish 1.1.1.2

         26 August 2017 at 12:42 pm

         Dspare

         I do think that the GP have moved on a bit from this

         Yeah, but ask yourself this, Dspare – at which Annual Party Conference are you most likely to hear the following sentence:

         “Rik ! Rik ! You’re gonna freak man !!! , “Look at me I’m Krishna !!!”

         (I mean, OK, I can almost imagine an overly-excited Steven Joyce screaming this at a National Party delegate – especially if Joyce had been given too many sugary
         drinks – but more likely to happen at the Greens Annual Conference, I should’ve thought)

   • Ad 1.2

     25 August 2017 at 7:38 am

     Which electorates are they strongest in?

     • swordfish 1.2.1

       26 August 2017 at 10:34 am

       Ad

       Which electorates are they strongest in?

       The New Zealand Election Study’s Jack Vowles

       Some journalists have also suggested that the Greens’ failure to attract voters on the right was less about the ability to demonstrate a capacity for economic management and environmental pragmatism, and more about how their position on issues of social justice connected or did not connect with their electoral support. For example, political commentator Duncan Garner (2014) argued that ‘the Greens talk poverty and social justice, but the poor aren’t listening—and they’re certainly not voting for them’. He identified ‘telling statistics’ from party vote data across electorates: the Green Party polled much better in upper-income electorates than in those with high proportions of people on lower incomes. But Garner’s observation is based on what is known as the ecological fallacy: it is dangerous to infer individual behaviour from differences between large groups of people such as those contained in electorates. At the individual level, as Chapter 4 has shown, the Greens were slightly more likely to gain votes from people on lower incomes than those on upper incomes.

       Contrary to Garner’s claims, lower incomes and fewer assets are associated with Green voting. However, as Figure 7.2 shows, Green voters are not working class and do not see themselves as such. They also do not identify as middle class, given the width of the confidence intervals, mainly identifying with no class at all.

       I made essentially the same point as Vowles back in the 2015 thread I Iinked to /the-political-machinations-of-the-flag-debate/#comment-1074477

       Duncan Garner certainly wasn’t the only journo to rely on seat-by-seat data

       In his 2012 Listener Interview with Russel Norman – Guyon Espiner suggested
       .

       If you doubt the rich bias among Green voters, consider this: in the country’s wealthiest electorate of Epsom, 4424 people gave their party vote to the Greens. That is more than the combined total of Green voters in the poor Auckland electorates of Mangere (962), Manurewa (995) and Manukau East (913)..

       Apart from falling for the ecological fallacy – what Guyon also conspicuously failed to notice was the marked discrepancy between similarly affluent seats like Epsom (Green 4424 in 2011) & Wellington Central (10903)
       or
       very Low Income Dunedin North (Green 7010 in 2011) & either the 3 poorer South Auckland electorates or indeed affluent Epsom

       • Nic the NZer 1.2.1.1

         26 August 2017 at 11:19 am

         Sounds like Simpsons paradox is at play here.
         https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox

         Normally you just have to make an ideological choice to decide which categorization is correct/superior in these cases (and when its important and tangible like in medical studies).

   • Pat 1.3

     25 August 2017 at 8:06 am

     good analysis…and

     “In other words … not the same 11% voting Green in 2011 and 2014. Around 5% of all voters (just under half of 2011 Greens) voted Green in both Elections, the rest were new.”

     I was one of those, and ….
     “NOTE: If the Greens are averaging anything less than about 6.5% in the final round of pre-Election Polls then I myself am going to be forced to switch my Party Vote from Labour to the Vegetable Rights and Peace Party, just to ensure they return.”

     I too was thinking along those lines, BUT my god they are making it hard to do that.

     • Carolyn_nth 1.3.1

       25 August 2017 at 8:18 am

       Too many mainstream journalists and commentators have been hammering the GP since they promoted strong support for improving the social welfare system.

       In spite of that, they have started an important discussion and opened up important voices on the damaging welfare system. There has been a significant amount of support for that.

       • Draco T Bastard 1.3.1.1

         25 August 2017 at 11:37 am

         +1

     • Bearded Git 1.3.2

       25 August 2017 at 8:20 am

       “NOTE: If the Greens are averaging anything less than about 6.5% in the final round of pre-Election Polls then I myself am going to be forced to switch my Party Vote from Labour to the Vegetable Rights and Peace Party, just to ensure they return.”

       Exactly. Think along these lines.

       Lab 41
       Greens 7
       NZF 8
       Nats 38
       TOP 4 (wasted)
       Wasted 2

       In this now entirely feasible situation a Labour/Green government could easily be formed without the need for NZF. A dream scenario that cannot happen without the Greens.

       • Carolyn_nth 1.3.2.1

         25 August 2017 at 8:26 am

         GP needs at least 8% (possibly 9%) to bring Jack McDonald into parliament. He is a very strong candidate and the government would really benefit from his presence.

       • Pat 1.3.2.2

         25 August 2017 at 8:35 am

         we don’t know if thats feasible at this stage….we need a series of polls to determine whether that is the case or not and the Greens are currently harming the chances of that scenario which is disappointing as when MT launched the strategy of engaging the disengaged (which attracted the hatchet job,sadly) the Greens appeared to have learnt that their most productive role was to be the gatherer of those votes for the left that Labour couldn’t actively seek without upsetting their more centrist voters (as ACT does/did for National)…now they appear to be spitting the dummy and putting the whole “change the government” goal risk (at worst) or (at best) excluding themselves from any meaningful role within a new gov.

         • Pat 1.3.2.2.1

           25 August 2017 at 8:48 am

           …it is making MT’s sacrifice for nought i fear.

       • Carolyn_nth 1.3.2.3

         25 August 2017 at 9:37 am

         I think you are dreaming if you think that Labour will not try to make an aliiance with NZ First, even if they don’t need them to govern. Basically, Labour would not put themselves in a position to be beholden only to the GP, no matter how strong the GP vote.

         Labour will try to balance the GP against NZ First, and possibly also the Maori Party, to give Labour more control and alternatives.

         The only way to ensure NZ First has as little influence as possible, is for there to be a very strong vote for the GP.

         • Dspare 1.3.2.3.1

           25 August 2017 at 12:04 pm

           Carolyn_nth
           That’s how I see it, and is much how National have done it with having more voting partners than they strictly needed. One factor to be considered is that Labour MPs may not always vote along party lines, so there needs to be a buffer against defections.

     • swordfish 1.3.3

       26 August 2017 at 11:47 am

       Pat

       I too was thinking along those lines, BUT my god they are making it hard to do that

       Me, You & Scotsman-exiled-in-Palmerston-North – lurgee

       Daily Review 17/08/2017

       * I’ve always assumed lurgee’s a fanatical Partick Thistle supporter but could be wrong

   • Carolyn_nth 1.4

     25 August 2017 at 8:15 am

     Thanks.

     From what I’ve seen of the GP supporters, on and offline, in Auckland, I’d say they are more ethnically mixed than generally supposed, with some degree of support from Māori and Pacific people.

   • Bearded Git 1.5

     25 August 2017 at 8:35 am

     Looking at that analysis there is a potential pool of 17% of the electorate that may vote Green-this is huge.

     And why, if you are interested in Climate Change action (our nuclear-free moment) and clean rivers and lakes, would you vote for very pale green Labour when you can vote for the real Green?

     • lprent 1.5.1

       25 August 2017 at 8:38 am

       The problem is usually to get them to actually vote, closely followed by the problem for them to vote Green.

       Using the same kinds of criteria of who has ever voted for it, the potential voters for Peter Dunnes hair (which appears to live a life of its own) is probably in the order of 15-20%.

       In the same line, the potential pool of voters for Labour would be something like 75%. After all there are all of those RWNJ trolls who usually start with the line like “well I used to vote for Labour but then [insert bigotry here], and now I’m proud to vote for Act.

     • Antoine 1.5.2

       25 August 2017 at 12:09 pm

       I plan to vote Green

       A.

2. Julia Schiller 2

   25 August 2017 at 6:21 am

   https://cheekygames.ghost.io/untitled-3/
   A blog inspired by Danyl Mclauchlan’s Spinoff piece and the RNZ interview of Martin O’Malley. Talking ’bout my generation’s potential to provide leadership to meet the existential challenges of our times.

   • Carolyn_nth 2.1

     25 August 2017 at 9:33 am

     So it’s a post written by you?

     I thought McLaughlan’s piece had some very interesting parts to it. However, I thought it was a quite sophisticated version of what many centrists do: take some views/policies/positions from the left; then take some from the right; then show why a balance between the two main polarities is the most reasonable position.

     Basically, such an analysis depends on the positions that are selected intitally.

     An alternative way to develop a political position is to start with the kind with the kind of society desired; then to look at where and how society falls short; then develop policies and positions to move towards the preferred kind of society.

     Or to look at the problems in society that require solutions, then examine the evidence for how well each solution will work.

     • Draco T Bastard 2.1.1

       25 August 2017 at 12:10 pm

       An alternative way to develop a political position is to start with the kind with the kind of society desired; then to look at where and how society falls short; then develop policies and positions to move towards the preferred kind of society.

       I’d say that was the only way to develop society. Doing things the way we are is resulting in society stagnating and heading towards collapse because of that stagnation.

     • Incognito 2.1.2

       25 August 2017 at 10:44 pm

       To me, the Greens are as if they got the vision a value-system, the whole integrated picture (see also /climate-change-and-transport-the-greens-integrated-policy/), and are looking in from the outside as it were. The other parties are embedded and starting from the centre of the status quo, by and large, and looking outwards to an emptiness that scares the living daylight out of them. But like light that cannot escape from a black hole they cannot achieve much more than some tinkering & tweaking with piecemeal (‘pragmatic’) policies and reductionist approaches. What’s needed is not a modification of what we (think) know and have but a complete paradigm shift to what we really want. My intuition tells me that this is simultaneously much harder and much easier than we believe …

3. Cinny 3

   25 August 2017 at 7:16 am

   National and Coleman a ‘no show’ at a live streamed ChCh health forum.

   “Organiser Marney Ainsworth, of the health coalition YesWeCare, said Health Minister Jonathan Coleman was invited to the event and offered several dates, but declined four weeks out, saying he had other engagements”

   What’s up with this election, is national no show becoming a common theme?

   https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/96135652/coleman-skips-election-health-forum

   Here in Motueka we have a “meet the candidates” today at 1:30pm at the senior citizens hall behind the library. I wonder if Maureen Pugh from National will show up? I’ll be there, I’ve some questions to ask the government.

   • mary_a 3.1

     25 August 2017 at 8:07 am

     Cinny (3) … you state … “What’s up with this election, is national no show becoming a common theme?”

     One word … arrogance!

     Natz is obviously picking and choosing which events it attends and they will be those which favour government! Anything or anyone else gets the one finger salute.

     It’s imperative Natz are removed from government on 23 September.

     • Cinny 3.1.1

       25 August 2017 at 9:02 am

       Hey Mary, it’s either arrogance or fear, as they do not appear to have much public support out there at all.

       Looking forward to this afternoon, will update later how it went.

       PS While driving towards the Mot River the other day my girls spotted one of the new labour party hoardings, “Clean Rivers… Let’s Do This” beautiful placement of that hoarding. My girls said ‘look mum it’s the ‘Red Princess’ she’s going to be the new Prime Minister, give her a toot mum’ To which I obliged, toot toot on the truck airhorns 😀

     • DRUM 3.1.2

       25 August 2017 at 1:13 pm

       Mary I would suggest it’s fear that keeps the likes of Coleman from appearing. His insistence that the health vote has kept up with health needs in the last three years has been exposed for what it is….nonsense.

     • riffer 3.1.3

       25 August 2017 at 2:39 pm

       After the debacle at Dunedin last week where they were fair hounded out of the city, I imagine every appearance will be carefully stage managed now to ensure only positive media coverage. Potentially a smart game, as long as nobody actually says anything in the media about it.

   • Draco T Bastard 3.2

     25 August 2017 at 12:19 pm

     What’s up with this election, is national no show becoming a common theme?

     It’s been a common theme for quite a few years now. It’s somewhat surprising that they’re extending it into the election period but not answering tough questions does seem to be National’s MO.

4. Sanctuary 4

   25 August 2017 at 7:35 am

   The Greens won’t make the threshold.

   [TheStandard: A moderator moved this comment to Open Mike as being off topic or irrelevant in the post it was made in. Be more careful in future.]
   

   • One Anonymous Bloke 4.1

     25 August 2017 at 7:36 am

     Yes, they will. There, your entire argument utterly refuted. That was easy.

     • Bearded Git 4.1.1

       25 August 2017 at 8:47 am

       LOL

     • North 4.1.2

       25 August 2017 at 4:57 pm

       OAB. Pithy !

       • In Vino 4.1.2.1

         25 August 2017 at 7:50 pm

         OAB –
         By NCEA criteria, you have ‘Achieved’.
         You could have gained ‘Achieved with Merit’ by adding the words ‘most certainly’.
         You could have gained ‘Achieved with Excellence’ by adding the word ‘Oh’ before ‘yes’.
         (But you still did very well.)

5. eco Maori/kiwi 5

   25 August 2017 at 7:35 am

   Yes Hilary Barry we can do with out plastic lets get ride of the vile stuff .
   If we went back to glass bottles they could be washed and reused . A price could be payed for the bottles returned .
   This would create a small industry that we use to have and our kids etc would make pocket money from this .
   This could influence some children’s into the work culture and provide pocket money or saving for them.
   Lett’s get rid of all the plastic we can we need the GREEN PARTY to get to 15% or the Main party’s may put this issue like this into the to hard basket.
   Lett’s change the building code to design our new housing so that all new houses are designed to be change slightly so that all new house have a solar passive design and the heating and cooling bills would come down this idea has been well documented .
   But the people in power do not like ideas that wont make our economy grow.
   National would not even ban incandescence light bulbs.
   There are a lot of ideas that would save us money and we could live more efficient healthy lives.
   But again this will have a negative effect on our economy which anyone with a brain knows can not grow for ever our chase the growth system is unsustainable and FUCKEN stupid !!!!!!!!

   • Bearded Git 5.1

     25 August 2017 at 8:37 am

     This government’s failure to put a 10c levy on supermarket plastic bags is scandalous. In the UK this has reduced bag usage by 80-85%. Vote Green and this will happen.

     • Draco T Bastard 5.1.1

       25 August 2017 at 12:21 pm

       In the UK this has reduced bag usage by 80-85%.

       Which would be why they haven’t done it. That decrease in use represents a decrease in profits for some rich people.

6. joe90 6

   25 August 2017 at 7:52 am

   A plague unleashed.

   Brazil’s government has abolished a vast national reserve in the Amazon to open up the area to mining.

   The area, covering 46,000 sq km (17,800 sq miles), straddles the northern states of Amapa and Para, and is thought to be rich in gold, and other minerals.

   http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41033228

7. AsleepWhileWalking 7

   25 August 2017 at 8:06 am

   Two renting articles on stuff this AM

   http://i.stuff.co.nz/business/property/96121726/fleas-creeps-and-mould-nightmare-rentals

   http://i.stuff.co.nz/business/property/96099814/landlords-get-our-money-we-get-poor-health

   • Carolyn_nth 7.1

     25 August 2017 at 8:29 am

     An indication that poor quality rentals are damaging people’s health – and that so some landlords can profit financially from some people’s ill health.

8. Bearded Git 8

   25 August 2017 at 8:44 am

   Desperate attempt by Audrey Young to spin the figures in this poll:

   http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11910554

   The real headline here is that 32% of people see Jacinda as the person to run the country against 10% for Little. A massive gain. Jacindaphoria continues.

   Interesting that Winnie is slipping-watch NZF vote slide too.

   • Psych nurse 8.1

     25 August 2017 at 11:59 am

     But how representative is a poll of Flybuys subscribers.

   • ScottGN 8.2

     25 August 2017 at 5:23 pm

     I didn’t think that 45 for English versus 32 for Ardern was a big enough difference to warrant all the fuss Soper and Young made of it.

9. AB 9

   25 August 2017 at 9:02 am

   National extending the $10k Auckland bonus for teachers who stay in their roles. Now applicable across all Auckland schools, not just low decile, hard to staff schools.
   How much of this money will end up in the pockets of landlords? Looks like another taxpayer subsidy to property investors.

10. Jan 10

    25 August 2017 at 9:06 am

    The negative Nats latest strategy is to go all out to discredit Labour’s new policies as new taxes. This is to be expected, but I say – stay strong Labour and Greens – kia kaha. Stay relentlessly on message: increasing inequality, increasing homelessness in our cities and towns, lack of care for the mentally unwell, the impossible cost of housing, our filthy rivers and lakes, etc etc., have all got worse. They have had 9 years to begin to improve these, but have not. For the future of Aotearoa New Zealand, there must be a change.

11. Reality 11

    25 August 2017 at 9:08 am

    The ever so un-charming Barry Soper is being particularly snarky/snide in the Herald. Saying Aucklanders think English is more capable than Jacinda. Considering he has been around forever like an old slipper, I think Jacinda as a new leader is proving herself very very quickly.

    • Ad 11.1

      25 August 2017 at 9:20 am

      Hillary Clinton was more capable.
      It’s not enough to win. May even be a liability.

    • Wensleydale 11.2

      25 August 2017 at 12:14 pm

      Aucklanders in Remuera and Parnell maybe. Soper’s obviously been suffering the negative effects of premature senility and really needs to take himself off to a retirement village somewhere.

      • eco Maori/kiwi 11.2.1

        25 August 2017 at 8:29 pm

        + 100 Wensleydale

    • Draco T Bastard 11.3

      25 August 2017 at 12:24 pm

      Saying Aucklanders think English is more capable than Jacinda.

      Nope. We don’t.

      English has proven his incapacity several times over the years.

    • Graeme 11.4

      25 August 2017 at 1:20 pm

      There’s a small distinction between “running” the country, which would be the technocratic lever pulling, which Bill is demonstrably reasonably capable of, and “leading” the country.

      This is cajoling disparate groups to some sort of agreement and building a consensus and inspiring the country as a whole to move in a cohesive direction. Key had this, as did Clark, Lange, Kirk and Muldoon to an extent. Jacinda has the qualities of a leader as well.

      Leadership is the question that should have been asked.

      • Hongi Ika 11.4.1

        25 August 2017 at 5:53 pm

        Bill and John have been running up the debt ?

12. Dspare 12

    25 August 2017 at 9:26 am

    Such blatant lies would be punished at the ballot box. Which must be why that pesky democratic oversight was abandoned just when the rebuild stopped being putoff. Still, ejecting National from the health ministry this election will be a way of exercising voting rights stripped from the SDHB:

    The Southern District Health Board’s performance has slipped on key hospital targets since the commissioner team was installed… Commissioner Kathy Grant was installed in June 2015 to eliminate the deficit… In elective surgery access, the board ranked near the bottom of the DHBs’ table.

    Not one of the six health targets, three of which relate to community-based health, was achieved.

    At the same time two years ago, one of the six was achieved (elective surgery).

    In general, SDHB’s performance against other DHBs had slipped…

    Mrs Grant said in a statement health targets were ”only one measure”… At the height of the patient care crisis at Dunedin Hospital this month, the commissioner team issued a public statement that said health targets improved in their first year while the deficit went down.

    https://www.odt.co.nz/news/dunedin/health/performance-key-targets-slips

13. ianmac 13

    25 August 2017 at 9:36 am

    The Prefu has a hidden message according to Thomas Coughlan:
    “Chief amongst the Treasury’s assumptions for slowing GDP growth is a decline in immigration – a drastic decline. Using data from Statistics New Zealand, Treasury is assuming that net migration will fall from 72, 540 in 2017 to 20, 000 in June 2021, falling eventually to 15, 000 in 2022.”…..

    “…In March, ASB projected a level of around 60, 000 a year would last for at least the next three years.”

    So immigration a major factor in the blossoming economy but figures in the slowing in the next few years as immigration falls away. Or not.

    Newsroom has some interesting articles each day.
    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/08/24/44551/real-news-hidden-under-prefus-exec-summary

    • ianmac 13.1

      25 August 2017 at 9:37 am

      Newsroom:
      https://www.newsroom.co.nz/

      • xanthe 13.1.1

        25 August 2017 at 11:39 am

        Thanks for that ianmac
        i had lost them and for some strange (or not so strange depending on your conspiracy level) its bloody hard to google!

        great news site with a very refreshing viewpoint, keep on promoting it!

    • ScottGN 13.2

      25 August 2017 at 9:43 am

      Brian Fallow talks about this in his Herald piece on the PREFU and goes on to point out that Treasury’s forecasts on immigration have been totally crap really.
      http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11910553

    • One Anonymous Bloke 13.3

      25 August 2017 at 11:39 am

      The most obvious assumption Treasury always makes is that the economy will slow under Labour led governments. The fact that the opposite is true doesn’t fit their dogma, so they discount it.

      • Draco T Bastard 13.3.1

        25 August 2017 at 12:55 pm

        Yep. IIRC, there was research that actually showed that bias.

      • Eco maori 13.3.2

        25 August 2017 at 2:45 pm

        I agree the economy will pickup with A government that distributes more resource to the lower classes. National have been taking money out of the economy and scratching there heads why the GDP did not grow all there m8 they gave tax cuts to stashed there money in the stock market it’s not rocket science National answer to growth. Is immigration

14. Pat 14

    25 August 2017 at 9:52 am

    Treasury’s forecasts on migration have been wrong (though they were highlighting the expected problems if it continued, the Nats just ignored the offered advice as usual) but the forecast could be said to be wholly dependent of the election result…i.e. Treasury are predicting a Labour led gov post sept ,with the consequent reduction in inward migration…should the Nats retain power i suspect they will revise their projections upwards (and/or outwards)

15. Pete 15

    25 August 2017 at 12:53 pm

    “Spy agency’s Dotcom surveillance illegal, court rules”

    So they broke the law. Watch the mayhem as those so adamant that Metiria Turei should have the book chucked at her, especially because someone in her position should be purer than pure, go crazy seeking accountability and consequences for the GCSB.

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/337996/spy-agency-s-dotcom-surveillance-illegal-court-rules

    • Draco T Bastard 15.1

      25 August 2017 at 12:59 pm

      Oh, I’m sure that National will be more than happy to do some retrospective legislation to make it legal – just like they did last time.

    • xanthe 15.2

      25 August 2017 at 5:22 pm

      Well the question now has to be ,

      If the legislation that retrospectively legitimized the spying against Dotcom was formed without acknowledging these other illegalities then does that not now (re)open the door for Dotcoms $2billion suit against the NZ govt?

      The can is open again and all those dratted worms are wriggling out and crawling all over everything.

      I do think that only a very large payout will have an effect on the GCSB so in the long run it will be best for all NZ if Dotcom succeeds in his civil suit against the police and GCSB $2billion is not that big a cost if it reins in these dickheads

      • eco Maori/kiwi 15.2.1

        25 August 2017 at 8:34 pm

        + 1000 Xanthe

16. Draco T Bastard 16

    25 August 2017 at 12:57 pm

    National promises ambitious new expressway between South Auckland and prison

    “So what are you going to do when you’re driving a corrections vehicle from South Auckland to Mount Eden, and end up in a situation where your prisoners just get out at the lights and run into the dairy or something?”

    “Nothing,” interjected deputy Prime Minister Paula Bennett, shaking her head. “There’s nothing you can do.”

    “That’s why we’re pledging an initial investment of $4 billion to construct a fast-moving expressway that will cut the average trip to prison by 10 minutes for one of our nation’s poorest communities,” said the Prime Minister.

    He clapped, then stopped clapping to ask Bennett to also clap, then continued to clap.

    • Brigid 16.1

      25 August 2017 at 2:40 pm

      Hilarious

      • North 16.1.1

        25 August 2017 at 7:02 pm

        Hilarious alright. I take it that’s a $4 billion traffic-free expressway on which there’ll be no stops. So the demons won’t be able to get out and rob the TAB during the stops ‘cos there’ll be none. Stops that is. Not traffic. Right you are !

        Hey……you didn’t say anything about other traffic. So there WILL be stops. Mmmmm. So the TABs are safe during the saved 10 minutes but not for the rest of the trip ? Right you are !

        This National campaign has the smell of an Edsel.

    • eco Maori/kiwi 16.2

      25 August 2017 at 8:36 pm

      Draco T Bastard WTF Bill is A muppet

17. marty mars 17

    25 August 2017 at 1:07 pm

    It is time to turn the heat up on hosking – he is a racist and that is the conclusion that is unmistakable from his lying apology and continued belligerent attitude to the Māori Party. And make no mistake this is NOT about the MP but about hosking the racist.

    ASB Bank should withdraw its support from Seven Sharp for comments Mike Hosking made about the Māori Party, says party co-leader Marama Fox.

    Fox was responding to Hosking’s clarification on his Thursday night show where he blamed the Māori Party for being “confused” by his suggestion only Maori could vote for them.

    “His correction was absolute rubbish, and he tried to turn it around to say it was our confusion,” Fox said to Stuff on Friday. “He deliberately misled the public, and then when he tried to clarify it he got it wrong again.”

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/96150762/mori-party-want-sponsors-to-pull-out-of-seven-sharp-after-mike-hoskings-rubbish-comments

    For a while I thought hosking was just thick and dim but now I realise he is those things and sneaky and slimey and he has deliberately muddied the waters for his own intemperate pleasure. He thinks he is in control – well it is time to pull his hind legs out and watch him slide to the floor where he belongs.

    • AsleepWhileWalking 17.1

      25 August 2017 at 3:23 pm

      http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/political/337995/call-to-boycott-seven-sharp-sponsor-over-hosking-s-comments

    • Hongi Ika 17.2

      25 August 2017 at 5:54 pm

      The guy is as thick as pig sh*t and believes his own B/S ?

18. Ad 18

    25 August 2017 at 1:46 pm

    Labour have just confirmed that they will fully fund the Skypath cycleway across the Auckland Harbour Bridge.

    That should hoover in all those cyclist voters on the North Shore.
    And get rid of one more poorly structured transport ppp.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11911077

19. marty mars 19

    25 August 2017 at 2:59 pm

    Good article with some good pointers on what to say and do if you have concerns about someone who may be contemplating suicide. Some tough commentary from young people in this article.

    Shocked into action by the suspected suicide of their 12-year-old friend, a group of teens approached reporter David Burroughs to talk about why it can be so much harder just being a kid these days.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/news/94579293/a-shared-story-of-going-to-the-brink-and-coming-back

20. One Anonymous Bloke 20

    25 August 2017 at 3:11 pm

    After 5.7k votes, Metiria is on 12% support for NZer of the year.

    Don’t know if that’s a reasonable proxy for Green Party support, but it’s a lot higher than 4%.

    I reckon the doomsayers will be eating crow come the 23rd, but of course I’d say that 🙂

    • JC 20.1

      25 August 2017 at 5:25 pm

      “The award is described as honoring “people for their contribution to the well-being of New Zealand”.

      “Proven, inspirational and passionate, these are the people that New Zealanders are proud to call their own,” the New Zealander of the Year Awards website stated.”

      http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/338013/barnaby-joyce-popular-choice-for-nzer-of-the-year

      • One Anonymous Bloke 20.1.1

        25 August 2017 at 5:33 pm

        To my mind, Metiria Turei fits those criteria and then some.

        Imagine the whinging and wailing if she won. What’s not to like?

        • tracey 20.1.1.1

          26 August 2017 at 3:53 pm

          Oh the outrage of the comfortable, smug and self righteous.

21. ianmac 21

    25 August 2017 at 3:56 pm

    This Vernon Tava is popping a lot up via the Herald to talk politics. He is City Vision Community Voice.
    Is he credible?

    • tracey 21.1

      26 August 2017 at 3:56 pm

      http://politik.co.nz/en/content/politics/1038/Top-Green-resigns-and-says-party-has-become-socialist-Vernon-Tava-Greens.htm

      I note he says it is not the party it was under Jeanetter and Rod and yet Jeanette is getting behind the Greens and is fronting many of their email appeals.

22. Cinny 22

    25 August 2017 at 4:35 pm

    By crikey the meet the candidates event in Motueka this afternoon was interesting. Nine candidates standing for West Coast/Tasman attended. I’ve never heard Kate Fulton from the Greens speak, she was great as was Damien O’Connor and the lovely lady who is a NZ First Candidate. A special mention to social democrats candidate Jack Collins, he was so brave when asked about euthenasia, as he recently lost his wife to cancer and held back the tears to share his story.

    Due to the moderator helping the national party list mp avoid answering my question about offering better education to all, I had to follow Maureen Pugh around afterwards in order to get my answer. In the end she told me that I didn’t want to hear her answer and walked off on me. Say what? Now that’s avoidance, and Maureen don’t tell me how I feel, and don’t walk away from me to avoid answering a simple question.
    Was approached by some lovely oldies who told me that thought it was shocking how rude Maureen had been to me, and told me that they too think that education is important for everyone, and that teritiary education costs are preventing so many people from upskilling to enhance their lives and our community as a whole.

    The meeting took a long time due to the volumne of candidates, school finished and my eldest came over to the hall, she had a question about the rivers, and stood around Maureen waiting to ask her, Maureen kept walking off on her, my daughter found that rude and upsetting and ended up in tears, after a cuddle and some reassurance from me, finally she had her chance and was told a story about a lake on the west coast that was cleaned up. My daughter now knows how politicians use little stories to avoid giving straight answers.

    Maureens side kick went on to tell my daughter it was her fault that the water was polluted because she used the toilet, I told him our rates covers our sewer. He then went on to tell her he didn’t have a problem swimming in rivers where cows had been shitting in the water, and neither should she. Then he laid into me, my daughter burst into tears again at how her mother was being treated, she didn’t take kindly to an old boy talking down to me and bullying her.

    Well Maureen if you wanted to make an impression you sure did, from when you said that our electorate is massive and it’s hard to cover it all (weak excuse for being absent in our area, our local MP has no problems covering the area, but he is a hard worker); to your rudeness and avoidance which was noticed by many.

    Only a few people clapped for the National Party candidate, times are changing.

    And Maureen it wasn’t me that graffitted “No Thanks” on your hoarding on the main street, I’m not into vandalism, but I am into accountability.

    Not sure if there will be another ‘meet the candidates’ in Motueka, which is a shame as many people work during the day and I’m sure they have questions to ask the candidates as well.

23. Tracey 23

    25 August 2017 at 5:00 pm

    So… was this when Honest John was still in charge of our secret services? Still if is not as bad as having people flat with you as a solo mum when you were 23

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11911084

24. Ad 24

    25 August 2017 at 5:03 pm

    The king of Tonga just dismissed his Prime Minister and the entire Parliament.

    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/world/fears-violence-in-tonga-after-king-tupou-vi-dismisses-pm-akilisi-pohiva-and-dissolves-parliament

    So. This guy is a fucking moron. Yet another inbred wastrel sucking on the taxpayer’s tit for no return.

    17 members of the parliament are elected by actual people, and another 9 are appointed by “nobles”. The “Tongan nobility”, King included, have no nobility at all.

    Granted we live in a constitutional monarchy ourselves here in New Zealand. But actually in Australasia the Queen hasn’t acted like that in 50 years.

    The Tongan monarchy do nothing but provide fealty services and negative rewards, for a country that has gone nowhere and backwards fast , other than as a client state of everyone else’s remittances from New Zealand and Australia.

    Revolution, Tongans, and don’t spare any of them.

25. tracey 25

    25 August 2017 at 6:55 pm

    When times are bad, no wage rises. When profits are up, no wage rises.

    https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/96155057/business-profits-leap-ahead-while-wages-struggle-to-outpace-inflation

    • In Vino 25.1

      25 August 2017 at 7:53 pm

      Usually they don’t even admit that profits were up until the new crisis has hit. I fear that a crisis is now imminent.

      • tracey 25.1.1

        26 August 2017 at 3:51 pm

        And now the Labour means more strijes rhetoric begins.

26. calltoaccount 26

    26 August 2017 at 12:40 am

    Anyone know how many, when and which national polls are coming out between now and the election?

    • tracey 26.1

      26 August 2017 at 3:52 pm

      Ones which look good for them and not the others

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