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6:00 am, February 27th, 2022 - 53 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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For the forseeable future, please comment on the Convoy protest in one of the dedicated threads so we can keep Open Mike for other discussions.
https://thestandard.org.nz/convoy-protest-27-2-22
Tony and PsyclingLeft, I've copy and pasted your comments across and deleted them from here, please use the dedicated posts from now on.
oh sorry bout that Weka. I was heading off to work and didnt see a Convoy one for today at that time. Early Sunday i know. Cheers.
just use the one from the day before if there isn't a new one 👍
The uselessness of western political leaders has been on display again. Interestingly, the Ukraine president pointed to it a week ago. Their appeasement policy!
Why did the US issue a formal statement to the world in 2008 that Ukraine would be joining NATO and then refuse to implement that? Putin objected, so the US caved to him. Appeasement became the norm.
The thing to notice here is that collusion between the political left and right in all western countries has been evident ever since. There has been no dissent from appeasement. All the retards were dead keen to teach Putin that he could do whatever he wanted. So he learnt the intended lesson.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/26/the-world-shuns-pariah-putin?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Maybe as horrendous as this is for Ukraine that it proves to be the moment when appeasement finally ends.
No serious person can pretend any longer that all Putin wants is ‘respect’ and that the problem is ‘baiting bear’ (as an aside, Comrade Trotter really has lost the plot well and truly).
Putin’s played a divide and conquer game for years, sowing division in West and taking advantage of it.
Maybe this prove a massive miscalculation on his part if its turns out to be the moment he’s finally made pariah and we stop the pretence of Russia being a normal nation capable of being part of all manner of normal international activities.
It’s what the like of Kasparov has been calling for for years, that we had tools short of military one to genuinely hurt him, it just took commitment and solidarity on the grounds art of West.
If Putin has pushed even China and Hungry too far, hopefully it’ll be easier to actually follow through on serious action.
There is of course still the chance, someone blinks and let’s him off from feeling a real impact but weirdly I’m feeling a bit more positive that this could be turning point. I just hope I’m not being naïve.
You ask "Why did the US issue a formal statement to the world in 2008"?
The only statement I am aware of is one by then President Bush and the two candidates in the 2008 election, Obama and McCain that they would offer backing to Ukraine's membership of NATO. The US can't just offer membership to anyone. NATO comprises 30 states and operates by consensus. It would appear to be Germany and France who opposed the proposal at that time.
That's what I recalled from watching the interview with the professor I quoted from yesterday. According to Wikipedia it was the head of NATO who said Ukraine would be joining (not the US). Here's the key portions of their timeline:
A typical bureaucratic stance. Bureaucrats assume everyone else is as slow to get anything done as them & lawyers.
This is true, but the appeasement applies to a lot more than just NATO membership and I don’t think anyone comes out looking too good.
Germany have been pathetic regarding Russian gas, Britain has shamefully turned a blind eye over oligarchs money. One could go on and on.
It’s all helped lead us to this point.
Noam Chompsky on NATO expansion and the Ukraine….of course this part of the puzzle is never allowed even the slightest airing on any western media…wonder why that is?
You can see a version of it any time you like on Fox, but then admitting similarities between the so called ‘anti imperialist’ left and US nationalist right on Putin and Russia is somewhat inconvenient isn’t it.
I would love to see Chomsky sit down with someone from Baltic states and ask ‘Why is NATO expanding to the borders of Russia’ as they’d be able to give a simple answer as to why they were banging on the door, pleading to be let in.
Chomsky fails to mention that Mearscheimer is a ‘neo realist’ who entire outlook is based on achieving ‘balance’ and if they meant letting dictator like Putin dominate ‘his’ region then that’s what we have to accept, regardless of what they means for the aspirations of the people in Eastern Europe.
But then the cult of Chomsky just tends to take anything he says uncritically as the words of some great sage.
Pretty good picture now how little vaccination does to slow Omicron transmission. We've got one of the worlds highest vax rates and currently the highest r value as well.
The Government, the Ministry of Health and informed members of the public have known since Omicron was first identified that the current Covid vaccines were not effective against this new variant. Hence the booster injection campaign and the current race by the world's scientists to procure a vaccine that is effective. Pfizer has almost completed their trials and hopefully a new vaccine will be available very soon.
The reason we have one of the world's highest vax rates at this point is because we tend to lag behind other countries, in large part due to our geographical isolation. So, no matter what the issue may be, we are always playing catch-up.
In other words, most other countries have gone through the Omicron peak and are coming out the other side. We have yet to hit our peak, and in a few weeks time should be coming out the other side too.
So, there is nothing sinister about the present stats – something you probably know only too well. 🙄
Bloomfield pointed this week to new studies showing vaccination gives meaningful protection against contracting omicron and thus slows spread. Details in this post
https://thestandard.org.nz/dont-give-up-new-zealand-omicron-vaccination-protection-and-why-its-the-wrong-time-to-let-it-rip/
Sure, but given to slow Omicron a booster is needed, to have any chance of slowing it down… the mandates and passports had to be extended to boosters immediately. We cant boost fast enough now given it takes @ 14 days forna booster to take full effect.
Hell we needed Rats ready to roll 3 weeks ago instead it's a 3 hour wait at my closest testing station plenty wont bother…
we are slowing omicron. With all the things we do. Imagine what it would be like if we did none of those things.
Booster takes 14 days for full effect, but that doesn't mean there is no effect before day 14.
Looks like significant benefits are there before 7 days.
Chart on page 18
Oh I dunno. They say the R value of Omicron without any control is 10. We are around 3.5 while in the exponential growth phase, which is a huge reduction. Vaccination (especially recent boosting) will be an important part of that, given it is proven to greatly reduce transmission of omicron, which has been in the news lately. You might already know that. Ashley Bloomfield:
"One of the studies, which was published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, shows that compared with being unvaccinated the odds of contracting Omicron after receiving three doses dropped by 67 percent – two thirds – and for Delta the risk declined by a stunning 93 percent."
Useful article too from our Prof Rod Jackson on the Omicron situation for NZ.
“However, what makes Omicron worse than Delta for unvaccinated New Zealanders is that almost all of them will be infected in the next few months. A significant proportion would have escaped Delta, at least until new effective antiviral drugs became widely available.”
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/rod-jackson-omicron-outbreak-our-time-to-vaccinate-is-running-out/LESRTJN7KDQSHNRTVCIZM7VP7I/
Thanks, very good article.
To go from zero to boosted takes such a long time. I know a few "researchers" who aren't vaxxed, on an individual level the odds are they will be OK, but much worse odds than they needed to be!
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/02/live-updates-latest-on-parliament-protest-covid-19-community-outbreak-sunday-february-27.html
The CDC hasn't controlled or prevented much, have they?
Just saying.
If politics is concentrated economics, war is concentrated politics.
War! Hey! What is it good for?
Business!
Follow the money
The person who hosts https://www.sorryantivaxxer.com/post/station-break-vaxman-has-covid
Got covid – but was fully vaxxed, so only had a mild illness.For 5 days (s)he lay in bed, while Russia invaded the Ukraine. (S)he made a pertinent comment:
Can anyone point to one substantial achievement this achieved in either term in office?
With covid now rampant and New Zealand having one of the highest R values in the world and testing crippled, this government has failed at covid.
So all the policies that come out of covid are failures. Child poverty, suicide prevention, road tolls, homelessness, home building, mental health. All the grandiose promises and we’ve simply gone backwards on all major indicators.
Covid deaths/million:
USA – 2910
UK – 2355
Sweden – 1677
Australia – 197
New Zealand – 11
Quite an achievement.
AND cases per million
USA. 241,000
UK – 274,600
Sweden – 239,300
Australia – 122,900
New Zealand –14,200
Not really, not in the light of covid now running rampant and all the other policy failures that came before this
You seem desperate to attack this government – I would be unsurprised if you were hoping for thousands of NZ covid deaths as it seems the governments actions in saving thousands of lives appears to greatly upset you
So no other achievement than not letting covid in or flourish, except that it is now
"Not letting covid in or flourish" was good, and all things (good and bad) end.
It's regrettable many businesses have suffered a downturn or worse during this on-going pandemic, but even if our Govt had prioritised businesses from the get-go I wouldn't have spent up big, and surging Omicron cases numbers guarantee that I'll be prioritising public and personal health a little longer.
Some of us still don't get how lucky we are (and were) – the "are we there yet" crowd, agitating for a return to mask-less and 'pass-less' BAU, are intent on undermining the measures safeguarding public health, but the more united we are against COVID-19, the faster we all get through this, imho.
What exactly is your point, that our case rate or death will catch up with the US or UK?
Because if it’s not (and there’s no credible evidence to suggest it will) then we’re still doing waaaay better than most other countries.
It's so good the approach in handling covid in this country was such that I did not die.
Now I can spend my time whingeing about how bad everything is.
NSW deaths per week from Covid are 163- peaked at 240pw ( we are 63% of that states population)
NZ deaths per week from Covid , maybe under 10 currently
Not correct. Duke Ell. But you know that!!
You made quite a few bold assertions without any support to back them up. Usually, this calls for moderation.
Let me start this off with this on child poverty: https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/127873784/child-poverty-tracks-down-but-government-doesnt-meet-key-target.
Now it‘s your turn to provide evidence for your assertions. Your entire comment comes across as a troll attempt at wasting people’s time in order to achieve some lazy political point scoring. However, you’ve been caught out before making up lies and other BS, e.g. https://thestandard.org.nz/everyone-is-over-covid/#comment-1866535.
PS I believe unemployment is down and at a record low.
"PS I believe unemployment is down and at a record low."
Do you accept that not everyone that find themselves out of their callings, jobs and careers are reflected in employment stats?
There are more non-travelling reserves, in Jacinda's team of 5 million than you acknowledge.
(Fun Fact: I wanted to make a reference to 1st XI or XV, but found Roman numerals only go up to 4,999, or it can be referenced as a V with two horizontal lines above it. Then it got hard and …)
Sure, I accept that. Unemployment is (also) not the same as underemployment. Anyway, any real or perceived achievement by Government can be countered and eroded to a failure if one sets their (biased-partisan) mind to it, which is what some commenters here know all too well. Hence my reply to DukeEll and before I put my Moderator hat on.
Some general principles to consider when looking at reporting of the war in the Ukraine, prompted by my re-reading Jon Sumida's "Decoding Clausewitz: A New Approach to On War" (2008) to try help work out what is going there.
Sumida says of Clauswitz: (worth quoting at length) –
"…In a war in which the objective of the attacker is the destruction of the defender’s sovereignty, the difficulties for the attacker are increased by the inherently greater strength of the defender’s political, or policy, motive. This is because the moral stakes for the defender are about existence, which is essential, whereas the attacker is concerned simply with gain, which is discretionary. Moreover, the resources available to the defense for military action can overmatch those of the attacker if the defender government’s will to resist enjoys broad internal political support. Under these circumstances, the regular forces of the defender can be augmented by the armed action of an aroused citizenry—that is, by guerrilla war—while the attacker cannot count on counterbalancing involvement from its own civilian population. A defender that has demonstrated a determination to resist even a greatly superior attacker can also expect the assistance of other powers, which are likely to recognize that their own independence is threatened by the offensive success of a state with aggrandizing or even hegemonic intentions. In short, effective defense against attack is not just about military action, but the interplay between military performance and a variety of internal and external political dynamics. This is probably what Clausewitz had foremost in mind when he stated that “war is simply a continuation of political intercourse, with the addition of other means…”
From this, we can also call into question the traditional definition of victory as being the battlefield destruction of the defenders armies, since guerilla warfare is also as much a continuation of political intercourse as a full scale conventional war.
The other thing I've been considering is I've just finished reading David Stahel's four books on the first six months of Barbarossa in conjunction with Glantz's older trilogy on the Smolensk battles of 1941 and I am struck by the similarities of this Russian army with very poor performance of the Red Army between June and November 1941. It seems to me Putin's truncated military harks back more to the Winter War than to Operation Bagration.
So far we read the Russians have commtted initially around a third of their combat units to action. That would be around 40,000 men of a manoeuvre force (not counting support units) of about 120,000. Now, if reports of 3-4000 Russian KIA (plus that implies at least 10,000 WIA) are true that would indicate that most of the Russian first wave is now incapable of further offensive operations (generally speaking 25% losses will do this) so if the Ukranian claims are true simple maths tells us the Russians must now be committing their second wave, probably designated for an exploitation phase, to try and secure first wave objectives. Clauswitz of course noted the need for strong reserves if an offensive is to maintain it's impetus after the initial attritional phase so if it passes that the Ukranians have forced the early commitment of the exploitation units then they are still in with a chance.
None of the above is based on any reality. You have just plucked numbers out of thin air
Just as 'likely' is an Ukrainian armistice when Zeleneskyy does an' Ashraf Ghani'. I have no evidence of that either but Im guessing hes already in Lviv – to continue the fight of course( just as Churchill made sure to leave London for the country as often as possible during the Blitz)
Perhaps you are right. On the other hand you are probably wrong.
The Economist posted this comment, and included a link to the video mentioned.
"ON THE MORNING of February 26th Volodymyr Zelensky posted a video of himself on Twitter. After a night of the worst fighting Kyiv had seen since the second world war, and of propaganda from Moscow claiming that he had fled the capital in fear, Ukraine’s president emerged from his office red-eyed and unshaven. He was holding a smartphone in his right hand as he filmed himself walking past the House with Chimaeras, a famous Kyiv landmark that serves as the presidential residence. He smiled at the camera and declared: “Good morning to all Ukrainians! There are a lot of fakes out there…[but] I am here.”
https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/02/26/how-volodymyr-zelensky-found-his-roar
I'm afraid you can't read the full story. That requires that you are a subscriber to the magazine. However the time referred to is only about 12 hours before you posted your comment so I don't think he has fled.
Here.
https://archive.li/hlzU4
Thank you. I didn't know about this site. I am an Economist subscriber so I've never needed it to read the mag.
Did you post that link from your own subscription or how does it work?
Seems to bypass most paywalls. But not the Harold's.
On the 24th on OM Jenny posted an article from Stuff profiling an electric ute. Part of the thrust of her comment appeared to be aimed at the Politically motivated Groundswell group and how hard done by they are and their spurious arguments for joining the "Freedom Protest".
There were several commenters who decided to comment on the qualities of the two wheel drive and dismissed the ute as varying degrees of rubbish.
Their arguments appeared to be based on the grunty 4 wheel drives. One suggesting they were the minimum spec for every builder. Ad apparently has several thousand of them.
So one wonders why Nissan, Toyota, Ford, Mitsubishi and others would bother producing 2 wheel drive versions of their utes or what market they are targeting with all of their models.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127889980/electricity-users-on-lowusage-plans-told-their-daily-fixed-charges-are-doubling
Will Labour now increase and extend (to all year round) The Winter Energy Payment for beneficiaries and low income earners facing the doubling in cost?
And if not why not?
Are the poor meant to carry this burden?
The Daily charge rises but the high users pay LESS per kWhr
eg Mercury has 18.8c per kWh for all users from April which is much lower than my low user rate from April 23.84c/32.9 c kWh
Mercury says electricity and gas prices vary from region to region, and sometimes from home to home.
So while the doubling cost may not impact you personally, I'm asking what is going to be done for the poor that are impacted by this doubling in cost?
You didnt understand did you.
Daily charge up . The charge for power used is down.
The reasons for changing which does impact me is that 'the poor' which you are so concerned about dont benefit so much as they have older homes and larger families which use above the low user maximum
My power compnay says it will mean $38 more per year in lines charges
Again, whether that will totally offset the increase will vary from region to region, and sometimes from home to home. Additionally, the change means power companies will be able to raise the daily charge by a further 34.5c a day, including GST next year, and again in 2024 and 2025.
Yes, we know the reasoning. However, the Government failed to secure a guarantee from power companies that tariff changes would cancel out on aggregate.
Moreover, the doubling in cost will still impact the poor currently on the lower use charge. Not all poor people have large families and stay in larger homes.
What is Labour going to do for them?
Are they going to just let them carry the full burden?
Minimum wage up from $15.75 which was Nationals end point to $21.20 in April this year
Thats a 35% increase . benefits have also risen and a 'winter' benefit rise as well.
A friend on unemployment benefit has seen it rise from $212 to $278 before this years cost of living increase and excluding winter bump.
Too little too late.
The current living wage is $22.75 and is due to increase in September.
In 2019 the welfare expert advisory group recommended benefit levels be increased by up to 47 percent immediately.