Open mike 28/02/2022

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, February 28th, 2022 - 66 comments
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66 comments on “Open mike 28/02/2022 ”

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  1. weka 1
    28 February 2022 at 6:05 am

    Please put comments about the convoy protest under one of the dedicated posts so we can keep Open Mike free for other discussions.

  2. tsmithfield 2
    28 February 2022 at 7:13 am

    Russia isn't doing so well in Ukraine:

    "Mr Heappey, a former major in the Rifles, said Putin's forces had been unable to capture key cities in the first few days of fighting as intended and had left pockets of 'well-armed' Ukrainians to the rear of their front line.

    A picture is emerging of a haphazard and disorganised invasion effort, with armoured columns running out of fuel or getting lost, and some having to advance without air cover."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10556813/President-lose-grip-power-doesnt-Ukraine-says-minister.html

    "Ukrainian deputy defence minister Hanna Malyar said on Sunday that the number of dead could be as high as 4,300, but it still needed to be clarified. She also said on her Facebook page that Russian troops lost about 146 tanks, 27 aircraft and 26 helicopters."

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1572568/Ukraine-Russia-live-invasion-vladimir-Putin-mocked-resistance-kyiv-Volodymyr-Zelenskyy

    "Ukrainian military forces were successful in destroying a Chechen special forces column of 56 tanks near the capital of Kyiv on Saturday, Ukrainian news agency The Kyiv Independent reported.

    According to the report, which the outlet said was confirmed by the Ukrainian President’s Office, the attack killed top Chechen general Magomed Tushayev, head of the 141 motorized regiment of the Chechnya National Guard."

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukrainian-forces-destroy-convoy-of-56-chechen-tanks-kill-general-near-kyiv-report/

    "This is the moment a Ukrainian driver mockingly asks invaders if they need a 'tow back to Russia' after spotting their tank had broken down on a road en route to Kyiv.

    The clip, shared widely across social media, appears to show an encounter between a group of Ukrainians and Russians who are said to be stranded at the side of a road outside of the Ukrainian capital.

    The footage begins with the driver slowing down to a stop as he approaches the Russian tank, which has 'broken down' on the side of the road and waiting for diesel."

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10554929/Video-claims-Ukrainians-mocking-Russian-tank-stuck-without-fuel-road-Kyiv.html

    A big problem for the Russian forces in Ukraine is that they have had to bypass key cities because of not being able to take them. This leaves their supply lines vulnerable to attack from the Ukraine forces still in those cities.

    Putin is certainly not going to get the quick victory he was expecting.

    • McFlock 2.1
      28 February 2022 at 11:40 am

      Fair call that the drive to Kyiv and the airport assault were essentially decapitation attempts, but they were nice-to-haves rather than the main assaults.

      The 2003 US/others invasion of Iraq took about a month for the most advanced military in the world to fully occupy a 25million person country of 440,000 km^2 with 300k troops, 2/3 US.

      The current invasion seems to be a bit over 200k soldiers invading a country with 40million people on 600,000km^2. And that country is defended by forces with near-peer technology.

      The Russians also seem to not be acting so Russian in their invasion doctrine, e.g. Grozny. Artillery seems, from what is online, to be more targeted than carpet barrages of TOS-1s and that sort of shit. We'll see if they keep that up if things continue to be so expensive for them. Specific claims can be taken with a grain of salt, but it sure ain't a walkover.

      • Sabine 2.1.1
        28 February 2022 at 2:58 pm

        The question that needs to be asked is: Do the Russians want to occupy, or are they only trying to do two small things. A. drive home the point that Nato is not sending troops, but rather just some small weaponry, old planes from the old eastern block states, and some sanctions and that after 8 years of stringing Ukraine along with its 'join' Nato bullshit, that after Zelensky stating that he would state Nuclear Warheads at his border with Russia – which imo was the final reason for Putin to wake up the dogs of war. B. Capture a little port not far from Crimea and thus have closed a wee inconvenient hole for the Russian and created a whole heep of issues for the Ukraine.. https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-news-02-27-22/h_32a28d1a9ec40e68486a3526f035dc6f

        Scroll down for a better pic, right below Donestk you find Mariupol – capture that area and link the red areas and pull back from any other 'front'. Declare Victory.

  3. Sanctuary 3
    28 February 2022 at 7:58 am

    I had the misfortune to stumble across a (verified, well as verified as it could be) twitter video last night of citizens in Kharkiv ambushing a Russian column with a hail of Molotov cocktails. It was horrific and I wish I had never seen it, the flaming vehicles, the gunfire, the screams. Those poor Russians, mostly just kids too poor to buy/bribe their way out of military service, being immolated by people that look like any group you'd round up on a chilly winters day at the local mall.

    If Ukraine wins this war they’ll have won their freedom with their blood – both their own and that of Russian conscripts.

    Putin should go on trial for this. He won't, more is the pity.

    • tsmithfield 3.1
      28 February 2022 at 8:36 am

      I agree.

      I don't think the average Russian soldier wants to be there. So, I feel sorry for them, and it must be terrifying coming up against a highly motivated populace.

      From what I have read, their moral is very low. Being stuck out there in the cold can't be a lot of fun either, especially when they probably planned to be in control of some of the major cities by now.

      • Sanctuary 3.1.1
        28 February 2022 at 8:44 am

        These "battalion groups" the Russians are using are turning out to be an unmitigated disaster. The troops lack the training to make the most of the swollen support weapons they have and Russian units have been advancing in dispersed company and even platoon sized units largely along roads (due to inexperience and the spring thaw making off road movement ruinously slow and heavy on fuel). Logistics are a really ropey, made much worse because the Ukrainians appears to be allowing the armour to pass by and then attacking the support units – as would be expected when you try and invade the largest country in Europe with with just 180,000 men. Footage showing hungry Russian soldiers robbing shops and abandoned vehicles that have gotten lost and run out of gas is everywhere.

        This war needs to end, it is turning into a bloody stalemate.

        • tsmithfield 3.1.1.1
          28 February 2022 at 9:18 am

          I agree, it is looking badly organised for Russia. I saw a US military authority commenting on the situation. He thought that the strategy of attacking at once from all sides was flawed, and based on a strategy of a quick win, which obviously isn't the case. But this has made co-ordination of the various elements of Russia's forces a lot more difficult.

          It looks like Ukraine and Russia are about to hold negotiations. I understand that no preconditions have been set by the Russians for these.

          https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-and-russia-set-to-hold-negotiations-at-belarusian-ukrainian-border-says-office-of-president-zelenskyy-12553294

          What I hope is that the Russians ask for some sort of token concession to save face so that Putin can have enough justification for the action he has initiated. And then withdraw his forces without having to admit defeat.

          The Ukranian resistance along with all the international sanctions is going to make this situation untenable for Russia. Plus, the west is continuing to supply arms to Ukraine, so I don't think it will get any easier for Russia.

          I also hope that the saner heads in Russia will move to remove Putin from power as he is clearly a loose cannon who is a clear menace to the world and Russia itself.

      • Anne 3.1.2
        28 February 2022 at 10:40 am

        "I don't think the average Russian soldier wants to be there. So, I feel sorry for them, and it must be terrifying coming up against a highly motivated populace."

        I recall reading somewhere that a group of Russian soldiers were led to believe they were going home and instead found themselves in Ukraine.

        I, too, feel sorry for the many intelligent, well informed Russians who must be distraught over what is happening in their name. Not to mention the anguish and despair of the Ukranians of course.

        If some sort of compromise is negotiated between Russia and Ukraine you can bet your bottom dollar Putin will say it was his intention all along. 🙄

        • Dennis Frank 3.1.2.1
          28 February 2022 at 8:31 pm

          Saw a fun report on Al Jazeera a couple of days back. A Ukrainian armoured personnel carrier had stopped on the road (vid showed it) & the Brit reporter said there was a Russian speaker in the vehicle talking to a group of Russian soldiers who appeared to be lost – told them the war was over and Ukraine had won, and asked if they wanted to be given a ride back into Russia. smiley

      • Craig H 3.1.3
        28 February 2022 at 10:51 am

        At least some of the Russian soldiers were told it was a training exercise until they got to the border where they were told that they were attacking.

        • Anne 3.1.3.1
          28 February 2022 at 12:02 pm

          That would be for sure. Most of them only young kids too.

          Many years ago during the Cold War years I met a small group of young Russian sailors. How it came about is another story. I found them friendly and very polite. Indeed if I didn't know they were Russian, I would have taken them for any 20 odd -year-old youths looking for a bit of fun and adventure.

          It brought it home to me, these young sailors were no different to their Western counterparts and should not be tainted because of their totalitarian governance of the day.

  4. Jimmy 4
    28 February 2022 at 9:17 am

    I have said on here before, this year there is likely to be very large rent increases due to the changes in the rental rules.

    Sorry tenants, but if you voted Labour or Greens this is what you get. Landlords have to pass on the additional costs.

    Residents in over-60s complex 'may have to leave' after landlord hikes rents and opens it to all ages | Stuff.co.nz

    • AB 4.1
      28 February 2022 at 9:33 am

      “Sorry tenants, but if you voted Labour or Greens this is what you get. Landlords have to pass on the additional costs.”

      By this logic, tenants are therefore permanently stuck with two bad options – shitty, sub-standard accommodation, or no accommodation at all. Permanent misery and permanent enslavement of one portion of the population by another. And you probably think this is not a sign of total depravity.

    • Poission 4.2
      28 February 2022 at 9:33 am

      That was a council mistake for allowing the covenant removal of the over 60's designation.

    • Ad 4.3
      28 February 2022 at 9:34 am

      I think you'll find it's the mortgage increases and rates increases that are the big costs passed on. Neither of those are directed by government.

      If a landlord didn't have the money to make a warm, dry and hence approved rental home, they should have sold out by now.

      Good on the government for re-regulating the rental market.

      • weka 4.3.1
        28 February 2022 at 10:34 am

        would the mortgage and rates increases be $120/wk?

      • Jimmy 4.3.2
        28 February 2022 at 10:36 am

        The mortgage interest non deductibility is definitely directed by government. That was why I increased my rental.

        • Ad 4.3.2.1
          28 February 2022 at 11:14 am

          Agree with that.

        • Blazer 4.3.2.2
          28 February 2022 at 12:26 pm

          That is phased in over years is it…not?

          • Jimmy 4.3.2.2.1
            28 February 2022 at 1:16 pm

            Yes it is.

            or property acquired before 27 March 2021, these rules are phased in with:

            • 75% of the interest claimable from 1 October 2021 to 31 March 2023
            • 50% claimable from 1 April 2023 to 31 March 2024
            • 25% claimable from 1 April 2024 to 31 March 2025; and
            • no deduction at all for interest incurred in borrowing to acquire residential property from 1 April 2025 onwards.

            That's why I only increased the rent enough to cover the 25% non-deductible portion this year, but I will further increase from 1st of April 2023 to cover 50% non deductible. Long term tenant was very understanding.

    • Barfly 4.4
      28 February 2022 at 10:30 am

      I think most landlords charge the maximum that they can …irrespective of costs.

    • Treetop 4.5
      28 February 2022 at 11:21 am

      An increase in homelessness was my contribution for the New Year prediction. Not outlandish but a serious matter.

    • UncookedSelachimorpha 4.6
      28 February 2022 at 12:20 pm

      Only if you voted Labour actually, have you gotten what you voted for.

      If enough people voted Green, the opposite would be true (their policies are for rent controls, CGT, increased state housing etc).

      National / ACT – their policies would also favour the landlord class (as exemplified by National's current leader).

  5. Ad 5
    28 February 2022 at 9:30 am

    While it's great the Minister of Energy has assured us all that we don't get oil from Russia, and have forward contracts to protect reserves,

    New Zealand Fuel Security Assured | Scoop News

    now would be a great time to remember that the Marsden Point refinery enabled us to make and store our own reserves of fuel here. Think Big was by no means all good, but it responded to a similar moment in oil prices.

    We're heading for a barrel of oil at $140 for the rest of the year:

    The Ukraine crisis is reshaping global energy markets and could send oil soaring to $140 per barrel, top energy expert predicts | Fortune

    That's 91 at between $3.20 – $3.50 a litre at the petrol station.

    New Zealand gasoline prices, 21-Feb-2022 | GlobalPetrolPrices.com

    We don't have the capacity to make our own fuel anymore, and Government decided that they would rather focus on an enormous battery dam in the Otago that will never happen than focus on the actual spike in oil supply which is right now.

    I had kinda hoped that New Zealand's demand for oil would have decreased more during COVID, but it amounts to a wee shave off the top.

    As a result we are not in a good position right now.

    Certainly makes the reception for James Shaw's Carbon Plan in May a fair bit harder.

    New Zealand Oil Consumption, 1965 – 2022 | CEIC Data

    area chart of New Zealand Oil Consumption from December 1965 to December 2020

    [lprent: Make sure the width of whatever you want to display is somewhere between 550 and 580px – fixed this at 580 ]

  6. tc 6
    28 February 2022 at 9:53 am

    Exploitation watch: Duplicity and Baz putting Iggy into play. Didn't take long.

  7. tc 7
    28 February 2022 at 9:58 am

    Those bastions of global unity, FIFA, decide Russia can continue in their world cup campaign.

    • Barfly 7.1
      28 February 2022 at 10:25 am

      Hmm at this rate they will "win" the competition without playing a single game…..

      • tc 7.1.1
        28 February 2022 at 3:48 pm

        Yes so the world cup hosting rats FIFA swallowed for 2018 was well spent as the teams scheduled to play Russia are boycotting.

        Played x, all won by default so shall we give them the world cup now ?

        Uefa moved the CL final from st Petersburg and then….
        Crickets

  8. Treetop 8
    28 February 2022 at 10:26 am

    Putin going into Ukrainia is personal for me. Up until 1945 my mother's place of birth near Husakow in the region of Lwow was on Polish soil and in 1945 her place of birth was 14 miles inside which is now known as Lviv region in Ukrainia. Every February 10, I think of her being deported to Ural in Russia age 11.

    • Barfly 8.1
      28 February 2022 at 10:41 am

      That "Polish" soil wasn't allocated by the Versailles Treaty as the inhabitants weren't majority ethnic Poles it was conquered by the Poles in the Polish – Soviet War of 1918-1921.

      Sorry to hear of your mother's experiences

      • Treetop 8.1.1
        28 February 2022 at 11:05 am

        Lviv has a long troubled past, especially on the border with Poland.

        Wars seem to start where there is a region with two ethnicities on the border of a country who wants to dominant the region. An example is the Russians in Donbas, which Putin claims he is protecting.

    • Ad 8.2
      28 February 2022 at 11:13 am

      What stories did your mother share with you?

      • Treetop 8.2.1
        28 February 2022 at 11:40 am

        Many. She was age 11 when deported in 1940 travelling 6 weeks in a railway wagon to Dubranski in Ural. Twice a day bread and water was all she had to eat. There was a hole in the centre of the wagon for human waste. Her only surviving family member was her brother 3 years younger than her, they both were emaciated and she was taken to a make shift morgue as she had a faint pulse and was thought to be dead. From December 1941 Easter 1942 her parents, 2 sisters (one age 3 died in her arms) and a brother died. She knew the truck came each day to take the bodies away. Mum said, "you had to try to survive." Her childhood was ended abruptly and she was aware of how the Jewish people were treated by the community, (even though she was a child) she felt shame and could do nothing to stop it.

  9. Jimmy 9
    28 February 2022 at 10:35 am

    RAT tests soon to be available (at cost) at Foodstuffs supermarkets. This is good news. Maybe a little late but good.

  10. Treetop 10
    28 February 2022 at 1:09 pm

    I know we are in phase 3. I think under the red traffic light. How many people actually know what the conditions of phase 3 are without looking them up?

    1 March tomorrow and it will be a big month for people dealing with and managing Covid.

  11. Molly 11
    28 February 2022 at 1:14 pm

    Long but worthwhile (IMO) read about the problems that occur when more than one of our systems have to work together, and the harm caused by their failure to do so.

    Herald: The New Zealand town that backed a child sex abuser

    The delays allowed a public smear campaign to be undertaken and maintained, causing further harm.

    • Puckish Rogue 11.1
      28 February 2022 at 1:34 pm

      Yeah thats a tough but worth it read.

      'The justice system needs to be more victim-centred'

      Yeah 100% agreed

      'The wait time for hearings should be reduced'

      Yes

      'The way child abuse victims are cross-examined needs to change'

      Yes but to what I'm not sure

      'Victims should be provided with a lawyer'

      Legal representation for all is a good idea

      'Guardianship rights should be paused when a parent is charged with abusing a child'

      Yeah see thats where it gets tricky, on the whole I agree but it needs to be done in some way that it isn't abused (no idea how)

      'Safeguards need to be put in place to stop abusers using legal action to punish victims.'

      • Molly 11.1.1
        28 February 2022 at 2:08 pm

        'Guardianship rights should be paused when a parent is charged with abusing a child'

        Yeah see thats where it gets tricky, on the whole I agree but it needs to be done in some way that it isn't abused (no idea how)

        Yes. I took that list to be from the perspective of someone who dealt with numerous system failures, and thought of a number of pressure points when stress may have been relieved.

        Due diligence and process has to be undertaken, but may be it can be prioritised. The initial investigating officer appears to have been deliberately reluctant to investigate, which drew out the timeline.

        • Puckish Rogue 11.1.1.1
          28 February 2022 at 3:08 pm

          Yeah it'd be interesting to know what the officer was thinking. Police Officers have a tough job at the best of times but this seems like a clear cut case of a please explain being warranted

          • Belladonna 11.1.1.1.1
            28 February 2022 at 8:12 pm

            Sadly, the police culture is to circle the wagons. Even if there is internal censure (which is unlikely) there is almost never a public apology.
            Even in the worst cases, the officer has been quietly allowed to 'retire' (with full benefits), by the time the case is heard – so the police just say, that there is no further action they can take.

        • Belladonna 11.1.1.2
          28 February 2022 at 8:10 pm

          Agree that it's challenging when someone is accused, but not yet convicted. And, that's a big part of the problem. Delays in the judicial system, mean that cases can literally go for years before they are heard in court. And then, there are, as in this case, appeals – which can extend the torture further.

          Certainly think that the police should automatically draft an investigating officer from outside the district when a high-profile member of the community is accused. Even if there is no actual bias, there's likely to be perceived bias.

          One change I'd like to see, is that the 'other' parent (i.e. the one not accused of abuse) has the right to move town to be closer to family and other support.
          This would have made a big difference in this case (and, I think in others).

          Generally the courts require the custodial parent to remain local (unless, of course both parties agree otherwise) to maintain the relationship of the child with both parents. In this situation, the father will have no contact with the child until the case is resolved, so there is little harm caused by allowing the mother to relocate (within NZ) until the case has been heard.

          Campaigns of 'whispers' are almost impossible to deal with – and walking away to a less toxic environment is often the best solution.

          I also think this woman would have benefited from much better legal advice – from somewhere like Women's Refuge – rather than a local solicitor. Perhaps the police should automatically refer cases of abuse to WR (or another agency, if more appropriate) for support.

          Finally, I think a sentence of home detention is not at all adequate for child abuse. [I could write pages about the way our legal system is biased towards the rights of the defendents, not the victims…. ]

      • Molly 11.1.2
        28 February 2022 at 2:14 pm

        PS., PR.

        Tried a Rogan podcast on the weekend, (previously avoided because of the 3 hr duration). Lasted about an hour, it was good, he let the guest talk without pointless interruptions, will finish it in stages.

        https://open.spotify.com/episode/1ugbn7cuab3mNgKbo81ajM

        • Puckish Rogue 11.1.2.1
          28 February 2022 at 3:23 pm

          Yeah its interesting listening to people talk about Joe Rogan when you know (no matter what they say) they haven't

          Thats Joes whole thing really, just talking to people with no ad breaks so no need to rush or anything

          This one was interesting because you can say Joe getting really frustrated with his guest over trans athletes and Joe getting frustrated like that is quite rare:

          https://open.spotify.com/episode/6dWMMbh3qjJXz7ijwtn2Tc

          Also Joe Rogan with Jordan Peterson and Jocko Willink are interesting for the how similar but also how different they are

  13. Stephen D 13
    28 February 2022 at 5:40 pm

    Efeso Collins endorsed by Labour for the Auckland Mayoralty.
    It’ll now be a fascinating contest. Will the endorsement help or hinder?

    • Belladonna 13.1
      28 February 2022 at 8:32 pm

      Well it will certainly help with the party machine (the door-knocking, leaflet distributing brigade). May or may not help with fund-raising.

      Efeso needs left-wing support in the leafy suburbs and northern nappy valley districts – which is where the Labour machine can help. He's almost certainly got the inside edge already in the Southern area – he's a local hard-working counsellor, who's stood up against Goff on multiple occasions.

      But, most importantly, it means that there is no other left candidate to split the vote.

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