Open mike 31/03/2023

112 comments on “Open mike 31/03/2023 ”

• Comments are now closed

1. Robert Guyton 1

   31 March 2023 at 6:43 am

   Fabulously clear day in Riverton. The sound of the waves from North beach promise settled weather. The students coming to our forest school today will be making damper, cooking it over an open fire of their creation. We'll learn about charcoal-making 🙂

   Tomorrow, a South Korean film crew begins filming here for a series about people who live in forests.

   The 4-day forecast looks good.
   • Hunter Thompson II 1.1

     31 March 2023 at 9:24 am

     Maybe students on the East Cape could learn about charcoal making in their region – lots of timber to pick up there.

     It staggers me that we are two decades into the 21st century, we are supposedly a modern, progressive society and we get timber slash destroying lives and businesses on a massive scale. This parallels the damage to society caused by intensive dairying in Canterbury and elsewhere.

     From what I can see, forests grown on unstable land in East Cape have been clear-felled with no regard to the consequences. The primary concern of the forestry companies is profit.
   • Patricia Bremner 1.2

     31 March 2023 at 1:06 pm

     Enjoy Robert. So pleased our fickle weather is behaving for your enterprises.
2. Sanctuary 2

   31 March 2023 at 7:06 am

   I don't know, if anyone, is advising Eli Rubashkyn but fleeing the country to avoid arrest on a minor assault charge is a really, really, really dumb idea. Even dumber is mocking the police with triumphalist statements on social media of their inability to do anything about her flight. Does she really think staying away for six months, one year or three years will make a difference to the NZ Police when she comes back to NZ?

   She is of course being egged on via social media by an army of idiots none of whom will be standing in the dock next to her when she inevitably gets deported or arrives back in NZ and is arrested.

   Travelling with an outstanding arrest warrant for assault is going to be perilous. One red flag or passport check at passport control will see her hauled off to a holding cell and deportation – God forbid she has been lying on her electronic visa applications, or travelling on other passports which conceal her identity in some way. You basically get treated like a potential terrorist if border authorities pick that up.

   Much better advice would be to have turned up at the police station, been charged and bailed and in six months if you are lucky you’ll get a discharge without conviction and a stern telling off. At worst it’ll be a conviction and fine. Fleeing the justice system and laughing at the authorities means the courts will take a much dimmer view of her actions now.
   • Cricklewood 2.1

     31 March 2023 at 7:31 am

     Travelling to the USA with an outstanding warrant seems especially foolish and likely to end in sitting in immigration detention for a few days at the very least.
   • Visubversa 2.2

     31 March 2023 at 9:09 am

     It will be interesting to see if any of the proclaimed "sacred classes" (trans, intersex, Jewish, Ukrainian) offer any protection.
   • weka 2.3

     31 March 2023 at 9:26 am

     I agree. Saying they did assault people and would do it again is daft at.

     Although they say they left because of death threats. And is there any evidence they have left the country? Some of their social media photos are fake or old photos reposted.
     • hetzer 2.3.1

       31 March 2023 at 4:51 pm

       "They?" I thought it was only one arsehole that assaulted her, there are more? I think you meant “he” Weka
   • Jenny are we there yet 2.4

     31 March 2023 at 9:51 am

     Eliana Rubashkyn said police arrived at her Auckland flat this morning and spoke to her flatmate as she'd already fled the country.

     "I said wow this is so scary, and I asked for help from friends, and they helped me come here (Sydney)," Rubashkyn said.

     She said she was frightened by the response after the incident and had been receiving threatening messages.

     "I know my life is going to change.

     "I'm afraid, because I know a lot of people on Twitter, very important people with loads of followers, are advocating for (me to be) removed."

     https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/03/29/posie-parker-juice-thrower-says-arrest-warrant-imminent/

     Doesn't sound "triumphalist" to me. Sounds more like someone in fear of their life.

     Rubashkyn had already fled the country, before she heard the police were looking for her.

     Considering the sort of organised fascist groups that follow and support Posie Parker. And the on-line threats being made against her.

     To get Eli Rubashkyn back to this country to face the offence she has been charged with, the New Zealand authorities need to offer Rubashkyn guaranteed safe protective custody.

     Eli Rubashkyn expresses her love for this country and her dream for nobody to ever have to live in fear here.

     https://twitter.com/1newsnz/status/1639493167811796992

     [please supply evidence for the two sets of claims of fact. 1. that ER left the country before they knew the police were looking for them. 2. “the sort of organised fascist groups that follow and support Posie Parker”

     Evidence means your explanation, quotes, and links. I want more than one piece of evidence for #2 and it had better be good, showing that there are fascists in NZ who both *follow KJK and *support her.

     If you can’t produce evidence for both, please withdraw the assertion and agree that you won’t make assertions like this again without evidence.

     You were warned about this the other day. This is a fraught topic and it’s not ok to run casual slur politics. The site policy is clear that you have to provide back up when requested.

     If you ignore my moderation here I will simply ban you, because I’m not wasting any more time trying to get you up to speed when you have a long history of bans for similar. You have until the end of the day – weka]
     • Sanctuary 2.4.1

       31 March 2023 at 10:21 am

       Right, so the poor wee mites plan when detained at the border somewhere is too… Claim refugee status on the grounds she is fleeing persecution?

       This sort of unfiltered and adolescent emotional response to anything stressful is unfortunately fairly typical of many TRAs.

       She needs to face the music and deal with it like every adult has to when they decide to clout someone in public.
     • weka 2.4.2

       31 March 2023 at 10:41 am

       Mod note. I've now looked at your ban history for 2023 and see you've already had two bans this year, one for making misleading comments, the other for attacking a commenter. If you don't follow the moderation note above in all respects, or if you mess me around, I will ban you until well after the election. If you are unclear on anything, please ask.
     • Jenny are we there yet 2.4.3

       31 March 2023 at 11:54 am

       When you say end of the day. Is that Midnight?

       I do have a life you know. And have things to do. I will try and make your deadline, later to night when I get time. But I can't make any promiises. Except I will promise to do my best.
       • weka 2.4.3.1

         31 March 2023 at 12:12 pm

         I did mean midnight, but am ok to extend until midnight tomorrow if you can’t get it all done today. Please know that I have a life too and things to do, and I am no longer willing to use my time to chase people up for this kind of thing when they have been warned before.
     • Jenny are we there yet 2.4.4

       1 April 2023 at 12:04 am

       Trans people exist. Trans people want to go to the toilet. Something we all need to do most every day. Trans people. like everyone else want to be able to relieve themselves where they feel safest. This should not infringe on anyone's rights. It's the toilets, for goodness sake, we go there for one thing. And who hasn't gone in the other gendered toilets when they have been really busting and all the cubicles are occupied? But a moral panic has been created over this issue by the far right.

       A moral panic is a widespread feeling of fear, often an irrational, that some evil person or thing threatens the values, interests, or well-being of a community or society.[1][2][3][page needed] It is "the process of arousing social concern over an issue",[4] usually perpetuated by moral entrepreneurs and mass media coverage, and exacerbated by politicians and lawmakers.[1][2]Moral panic can give rise to new laws aimed at controlling the community. [5]

       Stanlev Cohen, who developed the term, states that moral panic happens when "a condition, episode, person or group of persons emerges to become defined as a threat to societal values and interests".[6]While the issues identified may be real, the claims "exaggerate the seriousness, extent, typicality and/or inevitability of harm"…..

       ….Examples of moral panic include the belief in widespread abduction of children by predatory pedophiles;[9][10][11]belief in ritual abuse of women and children by Satanic cults;[12]and concerns over the effects of music lyrics.[13] Some moral panics can become embedded in standard political discourse.[2] which include concepts such as the "Red Scare"[14] and terrorism.[15]

       https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moral_panic#:~:text=Moral%20panics%20are%20now%20studied,the%20effects%20of%20music%20lyrics.

       [please supply evidence for the two sets of claims of fact. 1. that ER (she has a name you know) Eliana Rubashkyn left the country before they she knew the police were looking for them. her. 2. “the sort of organised fascist groups that follow and support Posie Parker”

       I am tired. In the morning I will be rested. But in the morning you will still lack empathy.

       I am not excusing or supporting what Eliana did. And I certainly would not have done anything like that myself. But Eliana Rubashkyn is a person, she is not a "they" or a "them". Eliana Ruashyn is certainly not an “it”, like a dog or a sub-human or a thing. It really shouldn't have to be said, but Eliana Ruashyn is a real person who needs to be treated as a person with a proper identity, You may not agree with how Eliana Rubashkyn identifies herself but at least give her the respect to address her as she would wished to be addressed. I notice for instance that you address Posie Parker as she wishes to be addressed.

       As a moderator, your lack of empathy means you have no issues at all with Eliana Rubashkyn being described as an “it” or as a “they” or as a “fuckwit” or as a “thug” terms that dehumanise her.

       hetzer

       31 March 2023 at 4:48 pm

       Well, when " it, they, fuckwit, thug", finally gets arrested for common assault on a woman, he ( yes its a man ), can explain its actions in court

       No bans or cautions here. What I see is lots of prejudice, lots of hate, lots of fear, and zero empathy.

       I also notice that you also don't object to trans, intersex, Jews being described as "sacred classes" or that it might be interesting to see if these "sacred classes" get special treatment in the US. A common fascist trope.

       https://www.ajc.org/news/antisemitic-tropes-are-proliferating-can-you-spot-them

       Visubversa

       31 March 2023 at 9:09 am

       It will be interesting to see if any of the proclaimed "sacred classes" (trans, intersex, Jewish, Ukrainian) offer any protection.

       Nothing to moderate here as far as you are concerned.

       Whether Eliana Ruashyn knew or not whether she was being sought by the police is irrelevant really, I believe her when she says she heard if from a friend when she was already in Australia that the police were looking for her. She says she left this country which she says she loves dearly, because of the threats made against her.

       And this fear is real. It was continuous non-stop on-line threats and abuse that brought down the ablest politician of a generation and the best Prime Minister of my life time. I can remember and name them all, starting from (Sir) Keith Holyoak on.

       I think that if Jacinda Ardern spoke publicly in support of our trans community, the far right would kill her. I am not joking or exaggerating this is how strong the far right hate was/is against her. And what was Jacinda Ardern's crime that earned such hate from the far right? Being caring and courageous enough to take drastic actions to save possibly thousands of New Zealanders lives.

       And you know what else I think. I think New Zealanders rallied in solidarity with our trans brothers and sisters in such numbers because we are sick and tired of the far right taking over the narrative by occupying and dominating our public and on-line spaces.

       What was your other question?

       What are the organised fascist groups that follow and support Posie Parker”

       Evidence for that is everywhere..

       I might give you the links tomorrow if you are interested. But I don't think you are. Not really.

       [banned for the rest of the year for wasting moderator time and refusing to play by the rules (patterns of behaviour) – weka]
       • weka 2.4.4.1

         1 April 2023 at 10:01 am

         mod note.
       • I Feel Love 2.4.4.2

         1 April 2023 at 10:15 am

         Thanks Jenny, takes a brave person to support the trans community at the Standard.
         • The Al1en 2.4.4.2.1

           1 April 2023 at 10:17 am

           Yep, respect for Jenny and all those missing, silenced voices here, even ure, who for once was on the right path.
           • Anker 2.4.4.2.1.1

             1 April 2023 at 2:18 pm

             • Te Allen, I want to apologise to you for a comment I made in response to your Nuremberg comment on the Daily Blog.

             I can’t remember what I said, but it was reactive. I know you have a family member who is transgender and they absolutely deserve to live free of personal harassment.

             I heard an interview with an older lesbian who claimed many of the trans rights activists were heterosexual men who identify as non binary.

             people are entitled to identify any how they like, but I am against changing laws to accommodate that.

             I also refuse to be gaslite by the state, now including the police that women can have a penis
           • The Al1en 2.4.4.2.1.2

             1 April 2023 at 2:21 pm

             I'm not bothered either way.

             Edit: But welcome your comment on my child.
         • weka 2.4.4.2.2

           1 April 2023 at 2:23 pm

           Thanks Jenny, takes a brave person to support the trans community at the Standard.

           Possibly, but it also takes someone who is willing to abide by the rules. Jenny has a long history of being moderated, on a range of topics. There are other people here who regularly support the trans community but don't do so by running slur politics and who are willing to work within the long standing debate culture of TS. They are welcome.
   • hetzer 2.5

     31 March 2023 at 4:48 pm

     Well, when " it, they, fuckwit, thug", finally gets arrested for common assault on a woman, he ( yes its a man ), can explain its actions in court
     • weka 2.5.1

       1 April 2023 at 2:20 pm

       please don't refer to humans on TS as it. It in English is dehumanising when applied to people.
       • hetzer 2.5.1.1

         1 April 2023 at 2:39 pm

         Agreed, apologies.
         • weka 2.5.1.1.1

           1 April 2023 at 3:23 pm

           thanks
3. Robert Guyton 3

   31 March 2023 at 7:44 am

   Riverton's Harvest Festival on Stuff (if anyone's interested 🙂

   https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/garden/131632100/gardeners-concerned-at-cost-of-living-learn-at-southern-harvest-festival
   • Patricia Bremner 3.1

     31 March 2023 at 1:22 pm

     That made my mouth water!!
4. Joe90 4

   31 March 2023 at 8:07 am

   Pretty sure planning systematic torture and bringing your own standardised kit to do the job is a high tariff war crime.

   https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1641110351646261248

   […]

   https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1641114362654998533

   https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1641110351646261248.html
5. Sanctuary 5

   31 March 2023 at 8:18 am

   Interesting article today in the guardian that notes NZ is in the forefront of OFFENSIVE cyberwarfare capabilities in the fight against Russian online propaganda and cyberwarfare:

   "…Analysts say Russia is also engaged in a continual conflict with what it perceives as its enemy, the west, including the US, UK, EU, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, all of which have developed their own classified cyber-offensive capabilities in a digital arms race…"
   • Ad 5.1

     31 March 2023 at 11:38 am

     If we had something useful to extend into an AUKUS side agreement, it would surely be in this field.
     • Sanctuary 5.1.1

       31 March 2023 at 11:55 am

       Just so long as the first into the fray isn't the Waikato DHB.
6. tsmithfield 6

   31 March 2023 at 9:04 am

   I don't know how much damage will be done to the government over this email saga, with revelations coming out about whether it was incorrectly withheld from the Ombudsman and who was involved in the decision making process. In some respects, it may be seen as a beltway issue, and perceived as gotcha politics that doesn't impact on the lives of ordinary kiwis.

   But, on the other hand, it is a very unwelcome distraction for the government, and is proving to be a major test of Hipkin's leadership. And also, stands in stark contrast to previous promises around transparency.

   So, it will be interesting to see what happens from here on in. In some ways, a tidy way to control the narrative would be for the government to initiate an inquiry. This would get the issue out of media attention as the findings of the inquiry could be delayed until after the election.

   The biggest problem for the government though is that the Auditor General may organise an independent inquiry. Under this scenario, the government would have no control over that enquiry, or when findings are released. And the AG may decide to have a much broader look at OIA releases.
   • Sanctuary 6.1

     31 March 2023 at 9:21 am

     I think the press gallery is trying to work itself into a frenzy about it, but that is because it suits their agenda – a beltway scandal they don't have to go far to investigate and where the they get to do the usual round of tired pundits and questions that beget questions and all from the comfort of their office chair.

     Most issue like this have little impact on voters once the offending minister has been sacked, and anyway – Hipkins is insulated from the actions of the previous PM's office.
     • tsmithfield 6.1.1

       31 March 2023 at 9:26 am

       I agree, the damage is likely to be more limited if it can be confined to Nash.

       However, what we don't know is what other emails may come to light, and whether that could involve other government ministers. If there has been a systematic pattern of suppressing OIA requests, then there may be more to come out, and we could have email controversies right up until the election.

       Interesting times, and certainly a gift to the opposition, which ever way it is looked at.
       • RosieLee 6.1.1.1

         31 March 2023 at 9:34 am

         Maybe someone should start investigating similar scenarios during the Nat years under Key et al.
         • Tiger Mountain 6.1.1.1.1

           31 March 2023 at 10:28 am

           Mr Key was well exposed in Nicky Hager’s “Dirty Politics” on his obstructionist attitude to some OIA requests–kicking out the timeline for “political purposes” and sometimes via his “office” (it wasn’t meee…) even supplying them to Mr “SlaterOil” before the official recipient got them!

           So Cameron Slater Mr Key’s one time late night phone confidant (confirmed in Parliament) got a sneak preview.

           https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/257009/pm-admits-govt-uses-delaying-tactics

           None of this negates Nashy’s behaviour let alone anyone else, but the Natzos are on rather thin ice here.
           • tsmithfield 6.1.1.1.1.1

             31 March 2023 at 10:51 am

             Except, that was fairly distant history. This is very much current.
             • Anne …

               31 March 2023 at 11:26 am

               Around seven to eight years ago? That's modern history of our time.
               • tsmithfield …

                 31 March 2023 at 11:44 am

                 Sure, not distant history like the Titanic disastor, or the American Civil War.

                 But distant in the sense that it applies to a government no longer in power and to politicians such as Key who haven't been in parliament for quite a long time. And it relates to issues that were covered quite extensively back then. So, it would be reboiling the cabbage so to speak.

                 Anyway, que sera sera. The opposition will be pushing this as hard as they can for awhile now. So, time will tell whether this has any long-term impact or not.

                 One problem for Hipkins is that he has set the standard for sacking now. So, if another similar email comes out implicating another minister, then Hipkins has a precedent he has to live up to.
                 • Liberty Belle …

                   31 March 2023 at 12:46 pm

                   From Twitter:

                   "So, @chrishipkinshas revealed senior official Holly Donald is the person who hid Stuart Nash's email – despite it being requested as part of an Official Information Act query. This is the same Holly Donald who led a seminar on how to avoid having things examined under the OIA."

                   And this from NRT:
                   In this case its strictly false, because information from Cabinet discussions can only be held in a Ministerial capacity; the PM's staff's willingness to overlook this calls every OIA judgement they have ever made into question, and suggests they are systematically illegally withholding information on political grounds.

                   Rotten to the core.
                 • Incognito …

                   31 March 2023 at 8:55 pm

                   One problem for Hipkins is that he has set the standard for sacking now. So, if another similar email comes out implicating another minister, then Hipkins has a precedent he has to live up to.

                   Context doesn’t matter in the Court of Public Opinion.
             • Gabby …

               1 April 2023 at 9:29 am

               Except Pony getting away with it in the 'distant' past made it easier for any slippery customers after him to do the same. An enquiry with teeth would be a good thing regardless of who is in power.
   • Bearded Git 6.2

     31 March 2023 at 10:31 am

     I think dumping Nash and then blaming him for everything has sorted it in the minds of the populace
     • tsmithfield 6.2.1

       31 March 2023 at 10:53 am

       I agree. If this is an isolated incident that can be sheeted to Nash, then you are probably right.

       However, as I mentioned, what we don't know is how much more is out there. If this isn't an isolated accident, but part of a deliberate strategy to obstruct OIA requests, then there could be a lot more.

       If that is the case, then the whole issue could keep boiling along with some new email being dropped every couple of weeks.
       • Belladonna 6.2.1.1

         31 March 2023 at 12:37 pm

         Caveat: I don't think this is anything more than a beltway issue. The whole problem of OIA evasion is not something that registers on the radar of ordinary Kiwis.

         However, I think that the paper trail of this cock-up or coverup (take your pick) goes from Nash's office to the PM's office. At the very least, it's incompetence (there is no way that this email wasn't relevant – so what were the reasons for concealing it?)

         However, the bigger issue brought to light is the standard practice of every party in government to conceal as much as possible in any OIA request.
         We see this time and again – when Minister's 'forget' to include meetings in diaries, or staff exclude valid emails/letters on spurious grounds.

         No party is immune from this. All do it – purely for political advantage.

         I'd like to see legislation or regulation 'clarifying' that once someone is a Minister, they no longer have a separation of identity into MP and Minister – for OIA purposes. I mean, what do they do – run an impermeable membrane down the centre of their identity! Of course, MP communications are informed by their ministerial role and knowledge of what is discussed around the cabinet table. That is *why* there is an OIA to a minister, and not to a backbencher.

         I'd also like to see serious consequences for OIA request delays and rejections (which are then pushed back by the Ombudsman) – which have just about become routine. Perhaps the Minister should be required to get leave from Parliament, complete with an excuse considered acceptable, for any delay. And make a formal explanation to Parliament of any adverse Ombudsman findings.
         • Liberty Belle 6.2.1.1.1

           31 March 2023 at 12:48 pm

           You'll be interested in this piece from NRT.

           "My second comment is that this is a perfect example of why the OIA needs criminal penalties for deliberate violations. Canada does this, with the Access to Information Act having a penalty of two years imprisonment for those who, with intent to frustrate a request, conceal, falsify or destroy records. We should do the same, to deter such behaviour and enable public servants to stand up to illegal demands from their political masters. But as with the Ombudsmen's Act, the problem is getting Ministers to apply the law to themselves…"
           • tsmithfield 6.2.1.1.1.1

             31 March 2023 at 1:34 pm

             Here Corin Dann interviews Andrew Geddes about the government's handling of this email. Quite interesting.
             • Liberty Belle …

               31 March 2023 at 2:22 pm

               It was, thanks for linking.
         • tsmithfield 6.2.1.1.2

           31 March 2023 at 12:58 pm

           No party is immune from this. All do it – purely for political advantage.

           I tend to agree with you on that. However, the problem for Hipkins now is that he has set a threshold for sacking cabinet ministers. So, I bet he is sweating on the hope that no other ministers have offended in a similar way.
           • Belladonna 6.2.1.1.2.1

             31 March 2023 at 2:53 pm

             TBH – I'd say that the particular offence (sharing insider information from the cabinet with political donors) – is highly likely to be limited to Nash.
             It doesn't seem the kind of thing that would be likely to be widespread – if only because your cabinet colleagues would be furious with you if/when they found out.
             Also assuming that the rest of the Ministers have at least read the Cabinet Manual!

             Any other Minister who has done such a stupid thing, would now know exactly what the consequences are. [Anyone who's even slightly dubious about what they've said, will no doubt be spending the weekend reviewing their correspondence for the last 5 years]

             The part that is widespread – evasion of OIA requests, using any excuse under the sun – isn't something that he sacked Nash for, so won't need to hold others to the same high standard.
             • tsmithfield …

               31 March 2023 at 3:56 pm

               TBH – I'd say that the particular offence (sharing insider information from the cabinet with political donors) – is highly likely to be limited to Nash.

               That is probably a fair point. One would hope such behaviour isn't wide-spread.
           • Gabby 6.2.1.1.2.2

             1 April 2023 at 9:32 am

             OR, hoping that one or two HAVE offended in a similar way…
7. Peter 7

   31 March 2023 at 9:31 am

   It looks like I missed the evolution of the meaning of another word. A car burned out on the Harbour Bridge last night. The vehicle "identified by witnesses as a Tesla – had somehow caught ablaze… Photos show the white Tesla’s front completely torched. No one was injured, he confirmed. The cause of the fire is also not yet known at this stage."

   In my once-upon-a-time saying something had been 'torched' meant the cause was known – the object had been 'torched', i.e. deliberately set on fire. The word is used twice.

   https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/dramatic-scenes-on-auckland-harbour-bridge-after-car-catches-fire/BAYOYLMW4BC6JHFLHBS7DA6UKI/
8. Molly 8

   31 March 2023 at 9:42 am

   Interesting recent blogpost on mental health trends for young people in the USA, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

   Intro by Jon Haidt, one of the authors of 2018 book The Coddling of the American Mind, (which I have no knowledge of), the rest is Part 1 of the preliminary report by research partner, Zach Rausch.

   When Jon first asked me to figure out whether teen mental health had collapsed around the globe after 2012, I thought he was nuts. The task felt impossible and beyond what I thought I could accomplish. But it was precisely this kind of work that I aspired to do…

   …The short answer to Jon’s question is: Teen mental health plummeted across the Western world in the early 2010s, particularly for girls and particularly in the most individualistic nations. The longer answer begins below and will continue in parts 2 and 3.

   https://jonathanhaidt.substack.com/p/international-mental-illness-part-one

   You can skip to the New Zealand summary here:

   https://jonathanhaidt.substack.com/i/111288830/new-zealand

   The increase in self-reported anxiety and depression in New Zealand is among the steepest across all of the Anglo countries. Figure 14, with data from the New Zealand Ministry of Health, shows that in 2007, the percentage of 15-24-year-old males and females who said they had been given an anxiety diagnosis was approximately 3%. By 2020, the percentage of young females with an anxiety diagnosis had grown to 24.8% (a 259% increase compared to 2011). Males also rose to 9% in 2020 (a 131% increase).

   These increases are so large, and the starting numbers are so low (just 3% of girls had an anxiety diagnosis in 2007?) that we suspect that this graph shows, in part, changing diagnostic criteria and greater awareness of anxiety. We do not believe that the underlying rates of anxiety disorders increased as quickly as the lines in Figure 11 suggest. Nonetheless, given what we are seeing in all of the Anglosphere countries, and given the self-harm data below, we believe that much or most of the rise is real. In any case, in 2007, only one in 30 girls thought she had an anxiety disorder; by 2020, it was one in four.

   There is a 60 page draft document which lists sources and data not shown on the blogpost:

   You can view all of the studies we found on mental health trends in New Zealand in our document titled The Coddling of the Kiwi Mind? A Collaborative Review.

   I'm currently looking through, and although no conclusions have been drawn it seems that addressing effectively this significant increase should be a priority for any government.
   • Shanreagh 8.1

     31 March 2023 at 10:50 am

     Me being cynical and therefore not overly helpful means I think that the Govt will be able to blame this concerning increase on the oppression felt by young people at the exercise of women's rights to safe spaces, fairness in sport etc.

     On a more sensible note:

     My concern is that children are being made to listen/absorb what should be the concerns of adults. I first became aware of this in the mid 1990s when my loved mother in law involved my then 9 year old brother & sister in law in listening to her troubles concerning the father's non payment/her legal troubles etc. I have seen this trend over and over. My bro in law was very affected by this, was powerless though.

     We should strive to make sure our children have time to be children. They will have the rest of their lives to be concerned about world, country etc problems. I'm not meaning they live in a bubble.

     I'm aware of how non acceptable/old fashioned these views are to some.
     • Molly 8.1.1

       31 March 2023 at 11:08 am

       "We should strive to make sure our children have time to be children. "

       I agree. I always considered one of the primary roles of a child's caregiver is to maintain appropriate boundaries.

       The boundaries for independence and behaviour expand as the child grows in capability and demonstrations of maturity.

       Safeguarding boundaries are not just related to physical access, but exposure to ideas and concepts (particularly adult concerns and sexuality) that disrupt or blight their individual development at their own pace.

       If I find it, I’ll add the Facebook findings on the negative social media impact on young people, notably girls again.
   • Tony Veitch 8.2

     31 March 2023 at 11:54 am

     IMHO the whole world is on a mental health hiding to nothing as the realisation of just how serious the climate crisis is, sinks in.

     Over the next decade or so, our whole way of life is going to change, very probably materially for the worse.

     And change begets stress.

     We ain't seen nothing yet!
     • weka 8.2.1

       31 March 2023 at 12:14 pm

       best advice I am hearing is to build community resiliency in any way we can right now, not waiting for government (central or local).
       • Robert Guyton 8.2.1.1

         31 March 2023 at 8:42 pm

         Yes. Busy with that. https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/garden/131632100/gardeners-concerned-at-cost-of-living-learn-at-southern-harvest-festival
     • Molly 8.2.2

       31 March 2023 at 12:20 pm

       Covid disruption may have affected some age demographics more than others too.

       We could be increasing current access while conducting research into the hows for targeted solutions.

       Did you look at the links? Anything in particular that stood out for you?
       • weka 8.2.2.1

         31 March 2023 at 12:57 pm

         Having a read through of the substack piece. I'd love to see that NZ graph plotted with increases in various SM platforms, and local events like Roastbusters. Also would be very good to see a breakdown of NZ by area, rural vs urban, ethnicity.

         Looking at the all age group graph, there have been increases across all age groups, but most of the others have had ups and downs within that. So were young people better before and are catching up, or have been impacted more badly than other groups?
         • weka 8.2.2.1.1

           31 March 2023 at 12:58 pm

           am also wondering about changes in diagnostic criteria in that time, as well as diagnosing culture with NZ GPS, and how that played out in NZ.
           • Molly 8.2.2.1.1.1

             31 March 2023 at 1:31 pm

             They do mention that, so it'll be interesting if they definitively weight it in their final draft.
             • weka …

               1 April 2023 at 6:19 pm

               https://twitter.com/moveincircles/status/1634162342379372545
   • bwaghorn 8.3

     31 March 2023 at 1:08 pm

     Causes

     Being constantly told that the earth's is fucked due cc

     Social media.

     Stressed parents only just making ends meat,

     Gender ideology, my kids school tried gender neutral toilets, a fucking primary school.

     Rampant divorce rates because that's the easy option.

     It's trendy to be anxious and gender fluid.
     • Molly 8.3.1

       31 March 2023 at 1:51 pm

       Overview of Facebook internal research:

       https://archive.ph/RMV5C

       For the past three years, Facebook has been conducting studies into how its photo-sharing app affects its millions of young users. Repeatedly, the company’s researchers found that Instagram is harmful for a sizable percentage of them, most notably teenage girls.

       “We make body image issues worse for one in three teen girls,” said one slide from 2019, summarizing research about teen girls who experience the issues.

       “Teens blame Instagram for increases in the rate of anxiety and depression,” said another slide. “This reaction was unprompted and consistent across all groups.”

       Among teens who reported suicidal thoughts, 13% of British users and 6% of American users traced the desire to kill themselves to Instagram, one presentation showed.
     • weka 8.3.2

       31 March 2023 at 1:53 pm

       those are obviously influences in later years, but not at the start.

       
       • bwaghorn 8.3.2.1

         31 March 2023 at 4:01 pm

         2008 the year the country elected the lying key ing.

         Only partially joking
         • Gabby 8.3.2.1.1

           1 April 2023 at 9:36 am

           The year the truth stopped mattering. That'd make anyone anxious.
       • Stephen 8.3.2.2

         31 March 2023 at 5:45 pm

         Facebook 2004

         Instagram 2010

         Snapchat 2011

         TikTok 2017
         • weka 8.3.2.2.1

           31 March 2023 at 8:11 pm

           Tumblr 2007 (of particular interest re gender ideology and the rise of girls transitioning)

           Would be interesting to know the years that FB upped its emotional manipulation algorithms.
       • joe90 8.3.2.3

         31 March 2023 at 8:43 pm

         Quite the correlation with the growth of youtube and the 2016 kick in females mirrors uptake of fibre to the home.
         • SPC 8.3.2.3.1

           1 April 2023 at 1:21 am

           2014 to 2015?
           • Molly 8.3.2.3.1.1

             1 April 2023 at 11:16 am

             Affordability of smart phones, or other devices making them more accessible to young teenagers for longer periods of time?

             I'll have to see if there is data or research looking at that in particular. If I find it, I'll post here. I think that may also differ by country as well.
             • SPC …

               1 April 2023 at 11:23 am

               It's also 2013-2014, a 2013-2015 spike and when it goes down for males.

               For males the jump is 2015-2016, when it goes down/flatlines for females.

               Good luck.
               • Molly …

                 1 April 2023 at 11:37 am

                 When looking at such research, I don't think it is likely there is one answer. I'm more interested in looking at possible contributors, and trying to determine the weighting of each.

                 Otherwise, there is a danger of identifying one particular contributor, providing a solution for it, and disregarding the rest.

                 With that in mind – this from 2022 which I post without reading to beat the edit time constraint:

                 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00787-022-02012-8
   • Patricia Bremner 8.4

     31 March 2023 at 1:31 pm

     The growth of the internet and insidious advertising may be a factor?
     • Molly 8.4.1

       31 March 2023 at 1:54 pm

       It could be that society and culture has been unable to accommodate such sudden and significant changes without cost.
9. SPC 9

   31 March 2023 at 10:41 am

   Off the books payment probe has resulted in a thunder of justice event – the big apple entices Florida man to home detention in Trump Towers.

   A Manhattan grand jury voted to indict Donald J. Trump on Thursday for his role in paying hush money to a porn star, according to four people with knowledge of the matter, a historic development that will shake up the 2024 presidential race and forever mark him as the nation’s first former president to face criminal charges.

   The felony indictment, filed under seal by the Manhattan district attorney’s office, will likely be announced in the coming days. By then, prosecutors working for the district attorney, Alvin L. Bragg, will have asked Mr. Trump to surrender and to face arraignment on charges that remain unknown for now.

   https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/03/30/nyregion/trump-indictment-news
10. Ad 10

    31 March 2023 at 11:36 am

    A huge shoutout to the Hipkins government for continuing to do the one big thing they do well: redistribute taxpayer cash to those who need it.

    From tomorrow the 1st of April over 1.4 million New Zealanders are going to get more money, Of course it's not enough. But Labour have a consistently strong record over two terms of increasing payments across welfare.

    As of tomorrow the nurses pay agreement worth $200million kicks in; that's right across nurses in aged residential care, hospices, home and community services, those in Māori and Pacific healthcare, get up to 15% more in take home pay.

    Also as of tomorrow more than half of New Zealand families with children can get subsidised childcare assistance. 10,000 more children can get Childcare Subsidy and takes an edge of financial grief off childcare before and after work.

    For those on NZSuper, since 2017, a couple get $326.68 more per fortnight and single older people get an extra $212.34 per fortnight.

    Also you get adjusted lifts for veteran's pensions.

    Also coming up from 1 May the Winter Energy Payment goes to all beneficiaries and superannuants.

    Also from 1 July Child Support will be passed on to sole parent beneficiaries.

    https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PA2303/S00270/over-a-quarter-of-new-zealanders-to-get-cost-of-living-relief-from-tomorrow.htm

    That's easily 20% of New Zealand getting more of a hand to deal with growth in supermarket prices, power prices. Of course it's not enough. And yes poverty isn't going down fast enough and here's a series of stats on that:

    https://www.childpoverty.org.nz/
    • Sanctuary 10.1

      31 March 2023 at 1:54 pm

      A group of people probably vastly under-polled, and basically invisible in the constant media parade of middle class whiners, cookers and entitled small business complainers. Because Labour won by so much in 2019 it is overlooked that the polls were out by quite margin – I can't recall exactly, but I think they over-stated the right vote by 2% or so and understated Labour's support by around 4%, hopefully these groups will get out and vote en masse come the next election.
11. Tricledrown 11

    31 March 2023 at 11:48 am

    Duncan Garner,Tovar O'brien are facing the reality of the Free market and probably no redundancy. You would think they would be defending a company which can't make money closing down a loss making enterprise.The Media landscape has been changing for more than ten year's so no surprises therefore why would any company continue to throw good money after bad.
    • Stephen 11.1

      31 March 2023 at 6:06 pm

      Live by the capitalist sword, die by the capitalist sword.
      • Blade 11.1.1

        1 April 2023 at 8:06 am

        Live by the taxpayer dollar without creating, die from the economic reality.
    • Anne 11.2

      31 March 2023 at 6:59 pm

      My first reaction to the story:

      " Oh you poor little highly paid things. Now you know how it feels to be made redundant and tossed on the scrap heap without so much as a "sorry". It happened to many thousands of us in the 80s and 90s and we didn't earn big bucks. We survived, but not without serious hardships, and you will too. So shut up and stop moaning about how hard done by you are. We're not listening.
12. Shanreagh 12

    31 March 2023 at 1:37 pm

    A piece by the much maligned Posey Parker in the Spectator .

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/fear-and-loathing-in-new-zealand/

    I watched the Hobart Let Women Speak several times and it was the genesis of the approach I made to SUFW and now the complaint to the Independent Police Conduct Authority.

    She comments:

    'The Tasmanian event was pretty horrifying. The women who spoke were visibly terrified and an angry mob drowned out their voices with hysterical screams and cult-like mantras' .

    The women were surrounded by baying, shouting jostling people only kept at a distance of about 5ft, behind them, by several older men, no police. Police let the crowd surge forward. Also of concern at Hobart were the pest media who jostled the women speakers including putting the long nose of a camera across/above the shoulder of the woman speaking from a wheelchair.

    Kudos to those women.
    • Robert Guyton 12.1

      31 March 2023 at 8:45 pm

      What is it about them that attracts angry mobs?
      • weka 12.1.1

        31 March 2023 at 9:28 pm

        left wing men being useless?
        • Robert Guyton 12.1.1.1

          31 March 2023 at 9:35 pm

          Useless?

          Guess then, I'm gone-burger!
          • weka 12.1.1.1.1

            31 March 2023 at 10:19 pm

            I was being satirical because I couldn't quite take in that you were arguing that there's something about women's rights campaigners or women speaking at an open mike that attract angry mobs.
            • Robert Guyton 12.1.1.1.1.1

              1 April 2023 at 7:07 am

              Wondering why the neo-nazis turned up in support in Australia.
              • Shanreagh …

                1 April 2023 at 8:37 am

                No Nazis in Hobart.

                As for the rest of your question you are clearly not reading the links we have provided.

                KJM does not support Nazis. I doubt any of the women who tried to line up to talk in Akl support Nazis either.

                This is a trans trope/slur

                The obvious point for many is that women don't have penises and men don't have vaginas.

                Sure with the miracles of modern cosmetic etc surgery these can be created the fact remains there are two sexes: male & female.
                • Robert Guyton …

                  1 April 2023 at 1:25 pm

                  "KJM does not support Nazis. I doubt any of the women who tried to line up to talk in Akl support Nazis either."

                  This is my belief also.
              • weka …

                1 April 2023 at 10:02 am

                What were the neo-Nazis supporting?
                • hetzer …

                  1 April 2023 at 10:25 am

                  What were the neo Nazis supporting?

                  At a guess ( thinking of actual Fascist ideology ) is the strong emphasis put on traditional family values and roles. The idea of different genders and homosexuality being viewed as deviant.

                  The neo nazi presence would be not so much as support for Parker but rather as a show of dislike for the groups protesting against her.

                  Also, of course is the Nazi love of dressing up in uniforms and parading! Theres nothing a Nazi likes more than looking like a bus conductor!
                  • weka …

                    1 April 2023 at 10:32 am

                    sounds like a good guess to me.
                  • Robert Guyton …

                    1 April 2023 at 1:26 pm

                    " traditional family values and roles."

                    Father brings home the bacon, mother bakes the cakes, that sort of thing?
                  • Michaelp …

                    4 April 2023 at 3:55 am

                    "Nazi love of dressing up in uniforms and parading!"

                    Yep, like men dressing up as women (or how they think women should or do dress) and shutting opposing viewpoints down through use of intimidation and violence.

                    Sounds just like facists to me.
                • Robert Guyton …

                  1 April 2023 at 1:31 pm

                  My question also, weka.

                  I'm not convinced by hetzer'a argument. Are you?

                  They weren't there to support Parker, but instead to "show dislike" for a community?
                  • weka …

                    1 April 2023 at 1:59 pm

                    please describe the support that you see, of neo-Nazis supporting KJK and LWS. Some evidence of it would be useful as well so we can see the context.

                    because I see you making the assertion and I don't actually know what you mean and there's certainly been no evidence or theory in your comments.
              • Molly …

                1 April 2023 at 10:30 am

                If you are honestly still wondering, then it is because you are not reading any of the responses given to this question on TS.

                Go back, and stop pretending ignorance.

                Or worse, celebrating ignorance when enlightenment is available to you.
                • Shanreagh …

                  1 April 2023 at 10:58 am

                  Good points Molly.

                  Socratic mode of questioning, that I had in all of its tough glory in some of my law studies is designed to elucidate, to expand knowledge by questioning.

                  Although the questioner(tutor) assumes an ignorant mindset, or argues in the negative, ignorant mindsets are not usually the ones who use this type of questioning.

                  The questioner has a depth of knowledge of the topic sufficient to enable them to maintain an argument against the topic to generate enhanced knowledge

                  People seeking knowledge about a topic that they do not have are best to read texts on and around the topic.

                  For instance we would not adopt a Socratic method of questioning when somebody wants to know how gravity works. We would ask them to read on the topic then to test or extend the depth of their knowledge we may ask some Socratic type questions.

                  But oh the almost terror in a law class where we had to sit in exactly the same seat as we had originally turned up to the first lecture, the lecturer who goes row by row along the rows & you realise you might not have 'got' the readings and questions are getting closer and closer, you've got to stand, think on your feet……

                  Good method perhaps especially for those involved in courtroom work.
                • Robert Guyton …

                  1 April 2023 at 1:29 pm

                  I am, by now, quite well-read on the issue. I believe I understand the position you, weka et al have taken.

                  Something about it though, is off, imo.
                  • Molly …

                    1 April 2023 at 1:38 pm

                    "I am, by now, quite well-read on the issue. I believe I understand the position you, weka et al have taken."

                    Not apparent by your comments. However, feel free to articulate your understanding of "the position you, weka et al have taken.".

                    I'll honestly tell you if you've got it right – or wrong.

                    "Something about it though, is off, imo."

                    The only information that imparts is that it is a vague aspersion.
                  • Shanreagh …

                    1 April 2023 at 1:47 pm

                    Women's rights, women's rights, free speech, 'women don't have penises men don't have vaginas' are quite clear & plain to me.

                    In Open Mike today 1/4 I quote from a NZ woman Katrina Biggs on the Shaneel Lal debacle.

                    She concludes:

                    It seems that being an arsehole is still no barrier to getting a prestigious award, but being a woman who doesn’t want men in her or her daughters’ spaces gets your life put in danger. Good to know that the world hasn’t tilted on its’ axis too much.

                    https://aboldwoman.substack.com/p/you

                    In a less topsy turvey world women who stepped up to protect their daughters would be feted not derided.

                    Unless you express your views about what is 'off' with these views we cannot discuss them (obviously)
                  • weka …

                    1 April 2023 at 1:57 pm

                    I am, by now, quite well-read on the issue. I believe I understand the position you, weka et al have taken.

                    Something about it though, is off, imo.

                    Perhaps you do understand but I've not seen much evidence that you understand Molly, my, or other women's position, because you simply don't engage with the substance of the ideas. The way you have been commenting on TS strongly suggests that you don't understand. Again here instead of stating clearly what is off, it's just the smear suggestion so often used by TRAs in the place of clean debate.

                    I'm open to being wrong, maybe you do have a grasp of the issues, but I'm not seeing that.
                    • Robert Guyton …

                      1 April 2023 at 7:33 pm

                      Okay.
13. Stuart Munro 13

    31 March 2023 at 7:12 pm

    I wonder if any of us here recall the UK miners strike of the mid eighties. This was the action that ultimately led to the decline of union power in Britain, and likely influenced, as unlike events in major powers often do to NZ, our own dark descent into Roger Douglas's wretched folly – for the decline of our unions did not proceed from resentment at their (unions) demand to be treated as a special case in wage negotiations.

    I raise the issue because activism out of a context of genuine disadvantage, is wont to be self-defeating. The people of Europe after the revolutions of 1848, the suffragettes, once women had secured the vote, unions, once pay and safety concerns were meaningfully addressed, all had to wait getting on for a generation, and the development of new issues, before fresh activism could attract broadly based support.

    Activists, having achieved any measure of success, are disempowered by it. They must find new careers, or fresh problems, if they substantially resolve the ones that initially motivated them.

    And so I expect it is with the contemporary trans debate. Gifted unprecedented (and unearned) parliamentary representation by the Covid response, they voted themselves, in the form of the BDM review, unprecedented liberties without all that tiresome business of securing public support. Not bad for a group of roughly 3% (using Australian numbers) of the population. But as noted above, the natural demise of popular support for further activism.
    • weka 13.1

      31 March 2023 at 8:17 pm

      not sure if I quite followed that, but in the UK there's the theory that because the big campaigns for lesbians and gays had been one, the charity Stonewall needed a new cause and chose trans issues. They've been hugely influential in how trans rights have developed and in blocking debate about how to ensure trans rights without harming women or LGB rights.
      • Stuart Munro 13.1.1

        31 March 2023 at 8:58 pm

        Yes I think that is one facet of the situation.

        There have been a number of claims that the trans issues are settled, loosely based on Gen Z responses. There is a problem with the assertion, beyond its speculative nature, in that (and I don't have a convenient reference, alas) adolescence is pretty much a high point for gender variation – identity tends to stabilize with age or experience or some combination of the two, so that current snap-shots of Gen Z are as likely to be the apogee of gender variation in that generation, rather than some LGBT& millennium.

        But the culmination of advocacy isn't going away. It might be, for example, an explanation for Grant Robertson's adoption of a useful role (economics) outside gender advocacy – realizing that the major battles in that field have already been fought, and that consequently the number of positions for activists is declining.

        Issues move on, and climate, and the transition to a plausible socioeconomic accommodation with it, must be resolved. This is a present issue – perhaps the present issue – others are a distraction.
        • weka 13.1.1.1

          31 March 2023 at 9:27 pm

          the other thing about the whole Gen Z idea is that the young women grow up into young mothers then older mothers and grandmothers and have to deal with everything that goes with that, both biologically and sociopolitically. There's a reason why the people that get the problems with GI are usually older women (and lesbians, they always got it). Nothing like sexism and misogyny when you're in labour or menopause to peak you.
          • Stuart Munro 13.1.1.1.1

            1 April 2023 at 5:52 pm

            A good point – and I think too that there is a kind of social conditioning, on younger folk and especially younger women, to not speak out. The habit of contemplating failures and injustices in silence makes older women especially formidable when, at last, they do.
    • Anne 13.2

      31 March 2023 at 9:33 pm

      "Activists, having achieved any measure of success, are disempowered by it."

      I think we saw a good example of it in the 1980s over the issue of nuclear proliferation and the French nuclear testing at Mururoa Atoll in particular. It culminated in the bombing of the Rainbow Warrior bombing in 1985 and its aftermath, by which time the success of the NZ government’s nuclear-free status had become synonymous with Prime Minister David Lange and the role he played. Who can forget the famous Oxford Union debate:

      https://teara.govt.nz/en/video/32901/david-lange-and-the-oxford-union-debate

      Together with the row over Rogernomics which Lange came to view with alarm and contempt, his successes (especially on the international stage) were to bring about his downfall. In other words he was in large part “disempowered” by those successes.

      He died a sick man in 2005. He was only 62 years of age and I often wondered since how much all that argy-bargy in the 1980s might have affected his health.

• Comments are now closed

• Log in
• Donate
• Contribute post

• Articles RSS