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6:00 am, October 31st, 2022 - 70 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/130323053/winston-peters-returns-to-kingmaker-position-in-new-political-poll
Winston's back
It's a Horizon poll, so it means little (check out their historical record, way off compared with the usual TV1/3 polls).
But as always, "polls" are about how they affect the media narrative as much as their accuracy (lack of). It means Luxon will be asked about Winston, and he took a week to rule out Brian Tamaki, so he'll faff around forever on this one. Ardern will also be asked but her answer is easy: he was my deputy PM, it's MMP, you do what you gotta do.
I can't see any nat leaning voter voting Winston, the couple I know where in a real tizzy when he went labour, so if it's true it must be labour voters who want to corner the greens.
The numbers in your Stuff link suggest otherwise.
Voters are like party leaders, they refuse to countenance an option … until defeat looms, and then they countenance anything. Nat voters would pick Winston over the Maori Party in a heartbeat.
But to repeat … it's not about the numbers, it's about the narrative. Luxon might reject Winston, but he has to say so, which makes a headline. He would much rather not talk about Winston at all.
And now the comments have arrived on that Stuff article! They are exactly as you'd expect.
Our health system will be busy today, dealing with all that high blood pressure and incoherent rage …
Anyone voting WinstonFirst expecting him to go with National should just vote National like all other idiots.
But the best thing for the country would be for the Winston party to just disappear quietly.
or maybe its five people in the five hundred that were asked. be careful you dont trip over that molehill.
I don't think he will faff in regard to Winston-he won't rule out a coalition with NZF.
It seems unlikely that NZF would rocket from an average of around 3% for the whole of this year to 6.75% – with no substantial reason (Peters launching the party conference seems to be the only political activity he's been involved in recently).
I agree that this poll is likely to see an increased public perception of relevance for Peters.
Other figures also seem a bit off (substantial drops from both Labour and National) – and a drop for TPM – which seems unlikely.
ATM, it looks to me like a rogue poll (the last Horizon poll also over-estimated NZF in comparison to other prior and subsequent polls). Time will tell.
Horizon poll results here
https://www.horizonpoll.co.nz/page/652/horizonpoll-nz-
It's usually bad news for Greens and ACT, because traditionally NZF is the third highest polling party and demands governance via a two party coalition (with support partners if necessary for a majority).
If he follows this path when polling behind Greens and ACT, it would be something new – as per 2017-2020 when the highest polling party was in opposition.
So at this point the next government might be determined most by whether Greens or ACT would provide or deny support to a coalition that excludes them.
If not, on the grounds NZF should not be the 5th party trying to wag the tail of the big 4 …
will NZF providing formal support to a NACT or LG government? Or more likely just confidence and supply (and negotiate on terms for this) and sit on the cross benches?
Why doesn't the poll result headline say, "Labour ahead in latest Horizon poll"? And then go on to say that Labour/Greens polled higher than National/ACT?
Another point. With MMP more accurately reflecting voters by the amount of Green voters coming from Labour and ACT voters coming from National presumably, then the third strongest centrist party NZF has its role weakened as the centre closes up with the competition of both National and Labour there.
Who here on the Standard sees the shift away from two very large parties towards a more equal four or five party situation?
Agree that the headline is deliberately mischievous.
Well….he's in the True Blue "heartland" of Gorrre…. not many Labour/Green votes there. 200 at meeting? hmmm
Southland had 15,000+ Labour voters in 2020….
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southland_(New_Zealand_electorate)
Interestingly, regarding how many Labour voters there are in Southland, 2020 results had more Labour party votes than National by 2.8%. L 38.7%, N 35.9%.
NZF had 2% party vote, so who might these 200 voters be? Disgruntled centrist National voters? It is Gore after all, not the biggest population centres in Clutha/Southland.
Interesting also that there was no NZF candidate in that electorate in 2020.
Don't know what Winston's stance on the ets and carbon farming is but if he's against it he'll be in fertile ground
I think that ratio (L to N party votes) held true throughout most of the country in 2020. It was an extraordinary election result.
Mainstream thought?…not yet but perhaps arriving
"We rely on an economic system which relies on buried ancient sunlight. Globally we now use so much fossil energy, it has been estimated that it is the equivalent of everyone on earth having 100 slaves working 24 hours a day for us."
https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/130305745/its-time-to-give-up-on-growth–why-degrowth-is-the-key-to-our-future
"Hopefully, it will be degrowth by design and not by disaster."
…meanwhile, there are stories about poor travellers having to pay heaps for flying, in the middle of a bloody CLIMATE EMERGENCY. Some even say, without irony apparently, that it is becoming 'unaffordable'. Jesus wept.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/477712/air-fares-travellers-unhappy-at-skyrocketing-prices
I am flying every week because there's not enough staff. Palmerston North flights and hotels often booked weeks in advance. Same Dunedin. Queenstown flights also v full. Like someone is going to take a bus?
And continuing to do it that way is apparently the only option, even though we all know it's inefficient, expensive and destructive. Why is the problem still presented as a personal affront to travellers, rather than a symptom of the obvious?
Yeah. But I don't see why the organisation Ad works for should be required to unilaterally make itself slower and less responsive to clients. In a competitive industry, that's suicidal. The politics of transition from BAU to something else looks as close to impossible as anything one can imagine.
No, it really doesn't. We can't comment on Ad's situation because we don't know the details, but we can comment on the fact that if we don't change we will lose everything anyway. Either you take the climate seriously or you're in denial.
If you take it seriously, then doors open on how to change. Maybe a business can't stop flying this year, but it can certainly be planning to. People can stop making excuses for not changing and instead talk about the urgency and looking at how we can change, right now.
What details do you want?
No one in their right mind wants to live in Palmerston North unless they are a dairy farmer or teach at Massey which is pretty much the same thing.
So we fly in and fly out. Clients of major electricity infrastructure aren't gonig to wait for the bus to show up, if it shows up at all.
Sounds Air is going electric in three years and Air NZ regional will be right with them a couple of years later. NZ exists on air travel and won't ever change even if you Greens tax the bejeesus out of it.
Like it or not, social-ecological systems (including air travel) will change.
Air NZ was ranked 13th/19th (of 125) in atmosfair's 2018 Airline Index – yay!
It's convenient to fly, and it's possible to fly less. Once upon a time no-one flew, and we are very well connected in other ways compared to then. Some fly often for convenience and/or leisure, but who really needs it?
http://www.pointhacks.com.au/news/status-mark-ross-smith/
http://www.pointhacks.co.nz/gold-status-tips/
What a game eh? And not a 'global warming' or 'climate change' in sight!
I don't want any details, I was pointing out that it's not possible to solve your company's problems at this distance. But there are plenty of other things to address.
No-one is saying all flying has to stop. But BAU is killing the planet and it's right to name the problems as people see them.
Yes Weka, I agree. Instead of waiting for BAU to return, it won't, it has gone, we could develop a mindset that the current situation is our our BAU.
So companies work on the basis that
employment situation is tight (yay! with my anti unemployment hat)
we don't have access to modes of transport that are anywhere carbon neutral and this is problematic
What would we do?
1 Location.
Ad is dismissive of Palmerston North and Wellington as only 'a dyed in the wool' Aucklander can be. If PN is not your employees favoured place then why are they going there. I know friends, relations who live in the northern Wairarapa, Horowhenua and small town Manawatu who commute to PN. A relation appointed to a CITO chose to live in Feilding rather than Wellington. Some go over the Pahiatua track each day from the northern Wairarapa. While there will be some emissions to contend with it is nothing like trips on planes.
2 Different ways of working and salaries
JVs, different ways of working and managing can springboard ideas away from the inevitability of having to fly. If people are not being attracted to work in smaller areas where the salaries are traditionally lower, investigate why this is. Is there some sort of salary differential being applied say AKL vis a vis the rest of NZ.
Not trying to tell anyone how to suck eggs …the future though is waiting for those who are planning ahead rather than BAU to grab it.
this is why we have a climate emergency
Buses don't offset their emissions. AirNZ does.
emissions offsetting is rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic. Might have worked 30 years ago, far too late now. We have to stop emitting.
Ad, if this is a regular occurrence – why are you not booked weeks in advance in terms of accommodation?
I've also used a bus – occasionally – to travel the North Island. My 80 something mother does it regularly. Do you mean someone other than you?
We are.
80 year olds have time to spare so they take the bus. Go for it.
It was the dismissive nature of your comment towards buses rather than a suggestion. I don't know the full details of your work and commute. Others have given more specific suggestions.
In plain English then – you don't want to. So any plan to get you out of planes will be dismissed.
You are claiming that your particular circumstance is either unavoidable or excusable.
Good on you for owning it.
I'm sure others feel the same.
Auckland to Wellington next Monday has a difference in price between flying and busing of $242 according to the Air NZ and Intercity websites. A pretty useful saving for a days effort. Bus has wifi and charging available.
That's so hilarious. Auckland to Palmerston North on the 6.15 means I am on site at the wind farm at 9. By bus it's a full day.
NZ's energy transformation isn't going to wait for the bus.
NZ's energy transformation isn't going to happen at all if we let AirNZ fake its way through it all. The oligarchs will freeload – only the poor will pay.
Actually the people paying for flights are the rich.
Poor people don't fly more than a handful in their lifetimes. The poor take the bus.
Air NZ is essential to NZ's energy transformation. They bring in the skilled workers and staff we don't have. No point wishing something different.
Pfft – while the leadership imagine they are a jet set, and misbehave accordingly, they are only cementing opposition to any kind of transition.
They might as well sit at home – they've chosen failure.
Take the train at least for Palmerston North.
https://www.pncc.govt.nz/Services/Transport-roading/Getting-to-Palmerston-North
That's from Wellington.
Wellington has got the largest major infrastructure works in New Zealand and will have for at least four years. SO they are sucking workers the other way instead of PN.
No one wants to live in Wellington. All those MPs sell their flats as soon as their term is up. Wellington is a hole.
You live in Auckland and you run other cities down!!
I'd take Wellington any day if I was unfortunate enough to have to live in a city.
nope, if you have a look you will see that you can also take the train from Auckland.
Northern Star. https://www.greatjourneysnz.com/tours-and-trains/scenic-trains/northern-explorer-train/
It woud be a stunning commute, and currently might even be cheaper then traveling by plane. And of course you could use the time on the train to work remote.
Departs from Time Arrives at Time
Auckland 07:45 am Papakura 08:35 am
Papakura 08:35 am Hamilton 10:15 am
Hamilton 10:15 am Otorohanga 10:50 am
Otorohanga 10:50 am National Park 01:15 pm
National Park 01:15 pm Ohakune 01:45 pm
Ohakune 01:45 pm Palmerston North 04:20 pm
I agree with living in Wellington, it takes dedication. I did not have it. The wind did my head in, but in saying that i am a sucker for Levin and Shannon. would move there in a heartbeat.
How dare you.
Good to see Minister Allen pick up Swarbricks bill. Odd that the PM then delays any discussion on alcohol sponsorship on same day.
I noticed that too, where's the tautoko, JA?
https://twitter.com/_chloeswarbrick/status/1586526383873744896?cxt=HHwWgICjmeTVvIQsAAAA
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/477726/alcohol-law-reform-plans-signalled-by-government
The stores ain't the issue it's the rotgut sugar caffeine charged alco pops that are the problem, .
Little mom and pop neighbourhood grog shops have no political, financial or media power. The big liquor companies and the sporting organisations they sponsor have all three in spades.
I've suggested that the current naysayers on Treaty Settlements turn their attention to a worthier project and that is getting behind any move to breakdown/remove:
Perhaps also working against the easy loan money scourge which is still with us.
Somehow this work does not seem to strike a chord, I guess studiously following the mis/dis information on Treaty Settlements is easier.
/sarc
"the current naysayers on Treaty Settlements"
Is this an accurate description of those who have been commenting?
Isn't it more about the impact of various agreements, failures to inform, lack of transparency and policies that create yet another elite group of unelected power holders?
In a word no. Some are thinly disguised antis. I have not noted any moderates and as I have been working in the land field including Maori issues I would welcome seeing these. I will go back and check though as it is a good point, that there may have been some moderate posters, ah yes I think there was one. .
NB with Treaty settlements there
1 is no obligation to consult any wider than the Iwi and around Govt Depts. They are between the two partners to the Treaty of Waitangi ie Maori and the Crown.
2 not sure what lack of transparency is about to be honest. All Treaty settlements and the following legislation are freely available. In fact I have been suggesting that people read these to see what did happen to Maori land.
For instance some are finding it difficulty to understand why the Tuhoe settlement is such an egregious example of a Crown wrought wrong.
I am not sure who has any right to be concerned about the impact but I do know that on the Crown side there is work done all the time to make sure that remedies are sought across the Crown's estate. I know that some are concerned but whether this is rightful or justifiable is the point. Information is available on several sites on current and past Treaty claims/Settlements.
https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/research-papers/document/00PlibC5191/historical-treaty-settlements
and follow the links on that page to settlements.
The entity that is created to negotiate the Treaty settlement has to organise themselves in specific ways. The entity who holds the land holds it on behalf of of all their tribal members. The tribal members participate in elections etc. and elect people. It is sensible that only certain members of the Board have public comment making roles. In other organisations it is totally unprobelmatic that the chair makes public stataments. We find in some large companies that there are shareholders who disagree. Thye may go public.
As these groupings and the boards are elected following legislation/usual democratic procedure it is odd to me that people call the people exercising an unremarkable right in the Tuhoe situation (which is not a public company in any way shape or form) an elite group of unelected power holders yet have no problems with say a public company such as Fletchers or Mainfreight doing this. Very odd
elite group of unelected power holders. This word phrase, especially the 'elites' word bears a close relationship to many of the phrases used by the Brash mob, and other right wingers. I have seen it recently on a site relating to free speech and in this context it means free speech without any care for the consequences.
Māori – along with non-Māori, often have representatives that represent a cohort rather than the whole. I think this is a realistic expectation, otherwise decisions would never be reached, but this should be recognised as readily as other political constraints are. Especially in regards to unelected representatives. And if we are able to recognise that David Seymour MP for Epsom does not represent and/or reflect the views of all his electorate, we should admit the same holds true for Māori.
There is a focus on Te Tiriti that is not just about the settlements.
eg. Covid anti-viral and vaccination access.
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/populations/maori-health
Māori health outcomes can be identified as worse than non-Māori, but to effectively address why, the co-morbidity factors have to be identified. It is not related physiologically to having Māori ancestry. I have no problem with a delivery system that successfully targets those factors. My problem is with a limiting access to Māori only, and not ALL those NZers who have those risk factors.
If I get Covid I have access to anti-virals that my partner does not unless he is immunocompromised. I consider both the intention and implementation of such policy unequitable and inexcusable especially in terms of health. I have suspicions that the funds put aside for Māori health, is going to be frittered away by a disjointed set of organisations and players.
(I have been called three times in the last month, regarding vaccine boosters, by one of the current organisations despite making it clear the first time, I don't want to be called.)
I also recently submitted to the prison survey that proposed specific rehabilitation programmes only accessible to Māori, and find that limited access also concerning.
Such an approach treats Māori as if they have all the same opportunities, environment, problems and so, solutions. It ignores the many Māori individuals, families and communities that thrive by living in an integrated and modern way, if they do not display recognisable Māori cultural signifiers.
It also treats non-Māori NZers as disposable, if they cannot access the same support others do by virtue of whakapapa.
We are in danger of creating a flipped version of access to resources and power that we rightly derided in the past.
I think this is a problem, and to ignore it, is to allow that problem to grow and divide.
I'm not anti-Māori, but I am critical of some of the approaches and policies that are being rolled out. I don't automatically assume that others with concerns are racist or reflexive naysayers. I know a few of them are Māori just stating their opinions.
We should be giving them an opportunity to talk and be listening. I do note that most of the commentators that are not Māori representatives, are often non-Māori.
Hi Shanreagh
I respect the knowledge you have about the Tuhoe situation, and I continue to read your posts with interest.
I live in Tāmaki, and the treaty settlement here was fraught with problems from the outset. The crown decided it wanted to roll a series of overlapping claims from several iwi together, and in doing so allowed an iwi collective with tenuous and contentious links to the area mana whenua status. This has led to escalating tensions between the iwi collectives within the Tāmaki Collective, culminating in court action that is still inconclusive, and the spilling over of bitter disputes between two of the iwi collectives.
The treaty settlement process seems to me to be a wholly inadequate way of addressing the wrongs committed by the crown towards Maori in the past, but it's the mechanism we currently have. What I ask is that you don't conflate criticism (including my own) of shortcomings in delivery of treaty outcomes with racially motivated attacks on the idea of resolving past wrongs in a meaningful way.
Yes I realise the Auckland situation with the overlapping claims. My view is that this is a problem for the Iwi involved and that the moment we start commenting/intervening we add a layer that is not helpful.
ToW froze a moment in time. There were back and forth battles, claims 'ahi ka'.
So I know you are commenting on the basis of the here and now and wish to go forward and that is fine. I accept this view.
I would not though, want to dismiss access to the Treaty of Waitangi mechanism because some uninvolved, legally, people do not agree with the results of one of them. As to if a different process could replace it I do not know…..the process can always be improved but that is not the same as replacing it. My view is that this is the process we have, it has worked in the past, now and probably will do so in the future.
A Maori work colleague, now Iwi leader, said to me that when Maori benefit we all benefit. Of course me being me and this being a Friday afternoon I carefully unpicked/challenged his view. While initially confronting when unpicked it is logical. This is a restating of the idea that a country's human/equity rights record is best judged by how it treats its most deprived citizens.
So imagine if Maori did not have the high figures they do in health deprivation. Hence my idea to swivel the eyes from the long term (treaty) mechanisms to allow Maori to play their part, to the current discussions around liquor licensing and ragtag lending.
These industries are to to found in areas of deprivation. They feed off the poor. The poor are not only Maori or Pasifika. The removal of pokies, lending stores & low or no assessment loans and storefront liquor stores will benefit everybody. These initiatives currently are a good place to start and a push from many, a sense of outrage from many will push the ideas of removal, ameliorating forward.
I won't. Weka has said the difference is 'nuanced'. I would say 'a fine line'.
What are the shortcomings you refer to? Focusing on the process, as per the Treaty between the two partners, not the results.
Hi Shanreagh…I have replied to you below, but I'm not quite sure what happened to the order of the post. I had to send the post twice – my 'office' today is the library, and the first attempt jumped back at me??
That’s because the system identified you as a banned user.
"That’s because the system identified you as a banned user.'
?? When was I 'banned'? And how am I now ‘unbanned’?
Many times, in fact. Those details are still in the system, obviously. When you change them you don’t identify as the same user and thus you’re let through automatically. You know that, don’t you?
"Many times, in fact."
I've never been banned. Ever.
“When you change them you don’t identify as the same user and thus you’re let through automatically. You know that, don’t you?”
What details? you have my email address, and you know who I am from previous posts. What are you talking about?
This combination of username + e-mail address first appeared here and was manually approved (by a Moderator) on 18 Sep, as with all ‘new users’, and neither has ever been banned.
So you think that focussing on Treaty settlements which is a mechanism between the Crown and the Maori partner is a better use of time and head space than getting behind some of the most pressing social issues that may affect us all.
Liquor licensing
ratbag lenders
We correctly have no influence on Treaty Claims so an anti movement is a wasted movement as claims will move through our society and we will all be the better for them.
Other issues such as liquor licensing issues, ratbag lenders and the whole gender stupidity may be receptive to a push from the general public.
I think it's accurate for some of the comments. Not all of course, and it might be useful to tease out the difference between the naysaying comments and the ones that have more nuanced critiques.
And here I thought The Government had the power !! Must be wrong with my premise.
And why the government is playing catch up. Waits to see what the reaction is and THEN signals its plans but wont be rushed, perhaps those within the Beehive were not aware of the issue and its impact out here ?? 😱"Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says the government will tackle alcohol law reform, to curb alcohol marketing and sponsorship, but will take time to do it right and won't be rushed"
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/477726/alcohol-law-reform-plans-signalled-by-government
It's to facilitate an end to the proliferation of alcohol sale outlets in areas with a lot of Lotto sales …. and to assuage concerns about this in those communities.
And a bit like the mom and dad landlord myth of family businesses being impacted, it's really about chains of shops and their lawyers.
The government has signalled it sees this as something in four parts.
In March next year its looking at advertising/marketing. The other parts being price and age (conscience vote).
As long as he got a good scolding LOL!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/130326545/teen-allegedly-at-centre-of-weeklong-christchurch-crime-spree-faces-81-charges
If you read past the scolding bit, jimmy, you'd find the situation is a bit more nuanced. The judge has not finished with our 14 year old, she threatened him with jail if he continued, denied him bail because of the harm he was doing, reminded him that bad decisions had got him behind bars, that he should spend that quiet time while on remand in a youth facility to consider his actions and consequences of his action, and finally there is a small matter of a psychological report to be factored in.
The media's use of 'scolding' to typify those remarks is fatuous. I wonder if they would have used that term if the judge had been male?
The report finished with some wisdom from the police regarding the long term factors that had led to this very young man's offending.
It was disturbing to read this from Superintendent Todd.
“However it’s hard to see these apprehensions as anything more than an inevitable end to a story that started long before any offence was committed.”
Todd said it was rare to see youth offenders come “out of the blue”, he encouraged communities to reach out to police if they see concerning behaviour amongst young people."
The whole article was much more nuanced and it is a pity that the 'scolding' typification did not do justice to the greater gravity of the piece.
Very interesting press conference (3 mayors on 3 waters!). They've actually shafted Luxon, but quite subtly. Saying "just scrap it" is an easy election line, the mayors are taking quite a different approach. Flushing out (sorry) National to come up with their own proposal.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/local-government/130328610/live-auckland-and-christchurch-mayors-front-over-three-waters-alternative
How about 3 waters WITHOUT co governance, They have combined 2 issues into 1that there could be an increase of by in ??
That is if the govt was serious about this being "only" an infrastructure issue 🤫 and not been very open (some could say opaque) about how the process was managed.
"What are the shortcomings you refer to?"
As I said, they are in the delivery of treaty outcomes. The example of the Tupuna Maunga Authority in Auckland is a perfect illustration. Those of us in maunga communities who value these special places welcomed the opportunity to work with the Authority to enhance and restore these special parks, expecting this to be a gentle and environmentally progressive process.
Instead, captured by ideological interests and driven by hubris, the Authority has become a divisive and destructive presence. It has systematically stripped maunga of non-native trees, with the loss of substantial native birdlife, and an increase in erosion. Its plantings are dismal, and represent a substantial biomass loss when compared to what is being removed.
Perhaps one of the most damning aspects of the Court of Appeal decision that found the TMA's consultation to have been inadequate in the case of Ōwairaka was the finding that the decision to fell Ōwairaka's 345 exotic trees was not made by the Authority, but by an employee.
Ōwairaka is by no means alone. The TMA's treatment of the football club on Te Pane o Mataoho is an ongoing sore in that community, particularly following the way the community was treated when a large number of trees were stripped from their maunga without public consultation.
So the problems with the TMA are in the outcomes, and much of these fall at the feet of the crown.
It was the crown who insisted on bringing together 13 iwi and hapu across 3 sub-collective groupings that cut across existing mana whenua claims.
And it was the crown who agreed to the TMA having the powers that it has over both iwi and crown land, without the necessary checks and balances in place to counter the excesses of a small number of bad actors.
The result? A necessary redress has turned into a shit fight, that is being called out by Maori and Non Maori alike.