Roy Morgan poll

Written By: - Date published: 2:09 pm, October 10th, 2008 - 66 comments
Categories: election 2008, polls - Tags:

The new Roy Morgan poll is out today. It was taken between Sep 22 and October 5, and has National’s vote collapsing by 7 points to 40.5%, Labour up one to 37.5 and the Greens shooting up to 9. So very good news for the Left.

I’d be careful about reading too much into this one, though. It just doesn’t seem credible that National took such a huge drop over the surveyed period.

Still, it’s not good news for National with the election less than a month away and the fallout from their poorly received tax plan and the latest secret tape still to come. The next round of polls should be very interesting.

66 comments on “Roy Morgan poll”

  1. Lampie 1

    do they give a percentage of undecided? Been thinking about all Polls. if the previous poll had a larger number of undecided then this can lead to a more narrow gap between the two. So if 25% are undecided, that can affect the result….BANG, just like that

  2. Tane 2

    I don’t believe Roy Morgan does. Interesting point though.

    oops – error in the table, i’ve left nz first on six seats. will fix. [fixed]

  3. Lampie 3

    Also the other thing that usually goes in Roy Morgan’s favour is sample size. Usually about 30% bigger than others. Bigger is better, no debate there.

  4. Lampie 4

    If made of decided voters, then this doesn’t paint a good true picture. They may have asked 3000 people and got only 900 odd to answer.

    So what’s the point? well… lots of votes out there to grab 🙂

  5. higherstandard 5

    Feck National better get back up around 47% otherwise I’ll be out of the money with the book we’re running at work.

  6. Pascal's bookie 6

    HS, aren’t you also on the record as having McCain win, (and being a fine president) in the uS race.

  7. higherstandard 7

    PB

    True my betting record isn’t good.

    I’m also on record as saying I didn’t really care too much who got in with the US elections as long as their last name wasn’t Bush or Clinton.

  8. Hi Tane

    I am not so sure about the drop being not creditable. If you think about what has happened recently it really could be that the wheels have fallen off National’s campaign.

    The Key Transrail sharetrading scandal was not a good look. MPs using information gained from their position and then using a parliamentary sponsored publication to talk the price up is not good. Helen Clark has said it takes a couple of weeks for a scandal like this to have an effect and maybe this is now happening.

    The way I see it the turmoil in the US finance markets has deeply unnerved local people. It is the shenanigans of traders like Key which has caused current problems. I believe that people are slowly dawning to the idea that there has been too much financial freedom for institutions and they have abused it.

    So in NZ who are you going to trust? Clark and Cullen who have shown adept and long sighted handling of the economy or a trader who is not able to see more than three months ahead?

    The fat lady has not sung yet …

  9. We all know how unreliable these polls are but this is definitely good for the Left. Remeber Labour was way down in the last poll before the 2005 election and ended up winning. The whole idea of polling has been corrupted. Starting under FDR, it was first supposed to track people’s views so the governement could respond to them. Now it’s all about influencing and manipulating people’s views to attain a result more favourable to corporate intereststs.

    BBC documentary filmmaker Adam Curtis’ ‘Century of the Self’ deals with this brilliantly. Check it out on Youtube: http://nz.youtube.com/watch?v=2LjNQIJ-P3o

    But this poll result is good news. National seem to underestimate the intelligence of New Zealanders. I think enough people will realise National’s tax package is a major step backwards. There’s every reason to think the Left will do very well in this election in the end but, with all the media propaganda and spin it’ll be a nervous ride until then. It’s the grassroots that will win it for the left. People don’t trust the mainstream media and their headlines have less effect by the day.

  10. Dom 10

    My god, ACT with four seats? That’s a chilling thought….

  11. Tane 11

    Hi Micky. Yeah, that’s possible. It’s also possible that Labour’s support suffered during the Winston fiasco and rose after it subsided. It may be possible that as the election nears people are really starting to weigh up the different policies and visions on offer.

    I don’t know, which is why I think we’re safer to wait until we see this trend in other polls before getting too excited or, even worse, complacent.

  12. lprent 12

    Apparently the TV3 poll coming up on the weekend is also quite good for the left. If that rumor pans out then it might actually be the start of a trend.

    I suspect that we’re starting to see the undecided and ‘go aways’ deciding which way that they will jump. That usually clicks on in the polls about 5-6 weeks out from the election. The polls then start getting much closer together and somewhat more accurate. It is no longer the self-selected sample that the polling companies are getting between elections.

    It will be interesting because TNS gives the undecided (but not the no-answered or the no-phones). If that is reducing then it is a pretty good indicator.

    Note the dates on this poll too – Sept 5th means that it has no stuff from the Nat’s tax package.

  13. Higherstandard 13

    Lynn

    And no stuff from the Prefu ?

    Polls shmoles – wait till the 9th of November then we can all be wise after the fact.

  14. lprent 14

    hs: Exactly…. But it is in the period with the steadily worsening news from offshore and diminishing expectations of what the Nat’s could deliver. Apart from the anti-labour social conservatism, the only other issue the Nat’s have traction on has been tax.

    I don’t think that the PREFU or the Nat’s tax package are very helpful for the Nat’s.

  15. HS yeah, but what would we use to fill column inches otherwise?

    Polls are important for trends, we’ll have to see if this is part of a trend or not over coming weeks.

  16. Ron Hanson: thanks for this..

    To watch for is – as I believe lprent is saying – the formerly undecideds and/or undeclared preferences. Likely to more closely reflect what folks are thinking per the original FDR intent.

  17. Lampie 17

    “Now it’s all about influencing and manipulating people’s views to attain a result more favourable to corporate intereststs.”

    yeap and that is what corporates’ have to be careful of as well. If you are a research company, you would perhaps create a favourable picture for the sponsor of the research they commissioned with you.

    Statistics is the art of lying.

    Approx, there is about 1%(think it is smaller) of the population who actually have a degree in statistics so the media can paint a mis-leading picture to suit their own agenda.

  18. vidiot 18

    Somethings a bit out of whack.

    The RM figures for Auckland (September – the only that is current) shows LAB down 5% (to 32.5), NAT up 2.5 (to 47.5), NZF down to 3.5, Green up to 7.5, Act on 4.0 and the rest lagging below 2.5.

    Yet the overall results are the reverse of this ?

    I guess Nov 9th we shall all know.

    /me walks away scratching his lucky gonads

  19. Daveski 19

    It would seem most possible that the MP will get more than 4 seats leading to an overhang and putting them into the King/Queen maker position.

    I’d also be genuinely surprised to see the Greens at 9% come polling day.

    Deemac – if you read this post, please let me know if you need any further assistance 😉

  20. vidiot 20

    There appears to be something awry with Morgan’s end-of-month polls. In the last two they have had the margin at 6.5% and 3%, whereas the mid-month polls have the difference at 14% and 11%.

    Now either something happens mid-month regarding policy releases, or Roy Morgan change the phone-roster, but those “rogue” results haven’t been backed up by any other polling organisation.

  21. had enough 21

    Rubbish of a poll, if you have a look at the breakdown of the results area by area you will see that National polled above 40.5% in all cases.

    So even if they were weighted you would still get a result above 40.5%

    Roy Morgan stuffed up on that one!

    [lprent: Have a look at the dates on the regions. The devil is ALWAYS in the detail.]

  22. middleground 22

    I’d be wary of the poll, seems it was run before the Government opened the books and National revealed their ‘Economic Development’ plan. Certainly keen to see how the next poll will reflect the latest

  23. had enough. those regional breakdowns are for older polls. well done.

  24. Pat 24

    Based on this poll, Labour would just need to get NZF across the line to form a government without the Maori Party.

    Labour must be seriously thinking of handing Ron Mark a free run in Rimutaka.

  25. Tane 25

    Pat. I can tell you for a fact that will never happen.

    Whose spin are you peddling this time – Tame Hooton, Whale or the Hive?

  26. Lampie 26

    Rubbish of a poll, if you have a look at the breakdown of the results area by area you will see that National polled above 40.5% in all cases.

    ????????????????

    [lprent: Check the dates on the areas. When I looked at it, most were in August apart from Auckland.]

  27. Pat 27

    Tane – how do you know that for a fact? Do you work for Helen?

    [lprent: Basically the NZLP doesn’t throw seats for anyone. The nearest I can ever remember was last election in Epsom where the NZLP candidate made an ill-advised comment. Helen was (to put it mildly) ‘annoyed’ along with the rest of the party.

    Unlike Tane, I do work for Helen (or she works for me depending on your point of view). I’m a volunteer in Mt Albert which is where I live usually (depending on boundary changes), and where I grew up. Tane has previously said that he isn’t a member of any party (from memory).

    Pat: Read the About and Policy at the top of the screen. I defend this site vigorously and prefer to replace commentators rather than posters or moderators. I view attacks on posters and moderators as attacks on the site. ]

  28. Tane 28

    Pat. Don’t be stupid, I have my sources. But you don’t need sources to work this one out.

    I mean, think about it. How does it make political sense to give up a seat, possibly for decades, to a party that could turn on you in the future? Especially Ron Mark, who appears to be on the right of NZ First and would no doubt happily work with National (and they with him).

  29. Lampie 29

    had enough. those regional breakdowns are for older polls. well done.

    ah, cheers Steve, wondering what he was on about.

  30. Lampie 30

    Yeah I knew that Iprent, was wondering what had enough was on about.

    Bit like those who look at benefit figures, miss those fine point details

  31. Tony Norriss 31

    The Colmar Brunton Poll was held over a similar period (27th Sept-2nd Oct) and that showed the gap had increased to 19 points. So, I wouldn’t start rejoicing too much yet. The Morgan Poll had NZ First at 6% last time as well, a complete contradiction to other polls. So the Morgan polls does seem out of step with other polls.

    However, it is a good wake-up call for National. I actually expect the polls might close up a bit for a while. At the moment Labour is doing a lot of attacking of National’s tax plan. However, they are not putting forward a credible package of their own. At the moment, John Key is right to say that the Prime Minister is missing in action.

    Labour will need to put something up very soon. When that happens, National will be able to get stuck into it.

  32. BeShakey 32

    ” However, they are not putting forward a credible package of their own.”

    Did you miss the Budget? Or the last 9 years when Labour has strengthened the economy and the fundamentals supporting it, while managing the economy in a way that has left it much better able to deal with the kind of problems we are now facing than if National’s proposals had been implemented?

    As Lampie noted, the fine point details make a difference.

  33. lprent 33

    TN: Yeah even amongst the lousy polling techniques used, the Colmar Brunton has been outstanding as one of the most inaccurate there is over the decades. It’s results seem to bear no real relationship to reality – even taking margins of errors either with other polls or with the real one (the elections).

    08Wire thinks that it is getting better – “Colmar Brunton poll: Better, but still biased“. I’ll start taking notice of it after I see it get within the error margins of an election result.

    Until then I’ll ignore it in the way that I have for a decade or so.

    The Morgan polls have always seemed to be the closest to reality. They track pretty well before elections with the canvassing that I see for trends and are usually the closest in terms of real numbers to end results.

  34. Tony Norriss 34

    Beshakey said: “Did you miss the Budget? Or the last 9 years when Labour has strengthened the economy and the fundamentals supporting it”

    I think the previous budget is irrelevant now given current conditions which have changed very significantly since then. Labour was acting previously in an economy that was going gang-busters. They haven’t had to face this sort of scenario before, which is quite unprecedented.

    I think people are getting very concerned and want to see a coherent plan that will get us through the current situation.

    Iprent said: “Yeah even amongst the lousy polling techniques used, the Colmar Brunton has been outstanding as one of the most inaccurate there is over the decades.”

    But it was very similar to the recent TV3 poll, so their is consistency between several polls compared to the Morgan which has tended to be out on its own. I will reserve my judgement until I see the next poll.

  35. Matthew Pilott 35

    Labour was acting previously in an economy that was going gang-busters. They haven’t had to face this sort of scenario before, which is quite unprecedented.

    Are you kidding? This has been going on for months, nearly a year. Just because it’s been a bigger headline after Lehmann (sic?) and freddie/fannie went up doens’t mean nothing was going on before. The wall st debacle didn’t happen in a vaccuum.

  36. Paul Robeson 36

    This is good news.

    Two polls out in recent times, even if they aren’t correct, they will give heart to people like me who were feeling sick at the cynicism, and to those who might consider getting out to vote now the hill doesn’t seem unclimbable.

    Has anyone done a line on John Key trying to pressure the reserve bank, and being told he was wrong by both Dr. Bollard and Don Brash?

    If this man wants to lead our country he could do well to stop undermining the reserve banks attempts to reassure the markets about the relative strengths of our economy. And perhaps look at the job description of the position he is applying for.

  37. bill brown 37

    Is this “not putting forward a credible package” the new line?

    I see Espiner’s already bought into it.

  38. r0b 38

    I think people are getting very concerned and want to see a coherent plan that will get us through the current situation

    My understanding is that Labour will be releasing their policy soon.

    Labour set a firm foundation of savings and investment (KiwiSaver) and funding for research. That’s the kind of growth oriented long term planning that we need. Expect Labour’s policy when released to be similarly prudent and effective.

    National have chucked all that on the bonfire of tax cuts for the rich – a short term boost to consumer spending. Gut the savings, kill the research. That’s their plan. That’s it. Unbelievable.

  39. Pablo 39

    [lprent: Basically the NZLP doesn’t throw seats for anyone. The nearest I can ever remember was last election in Epsom where the NZLP candidate made an ill-advised comment. Helen was (to put it mildly) ‘annoyed’ along with the rest of the party.

    Actually, I recall Labour throwing Coromandel to give Jeanette a clear run back in 1999 (maybe? hazy memory). She won it too.

    Captcha is spooky again: Dutchess permits (not that we’d ever refer to HC as “The Duchess”.

  40. Tane 40

    That huge chunk of Green is beautiful.

  41. r0b 41

    That huge chunk of Green is beautiful.

    Certainly is. Let’s hope the election result is greener still!

  42. lprent 42

    Pablo: I don’t think that the party did (I have no idea about the candidate). I do think that the voters in that electorate probably did.

    http://1999.electionresults.govt.nz/e9/html/cand_09.html

    BIRD, Tony Alliance 1217 3.56%
    FITZSIMONS, Jeanette Green Party 13682 39.98%
    HAWKESWOOD, Margaret Labour Party 3892 11.37%
    McDONALD, Robyn New Zealand First Party 1237 3.61%
    McLEAN, Murray National Party 13432 39.25%
    PARLOUR, David Christian Heritage Party 760 2.22%

    http://2002.electionresults.org.nz/electorate-9.html

    ANDERSON, Annette PC 367
    FITZSIMONS, Jeanette GP 7,724
    GOUDIE, Sandra NAT 14,706
    OLSEN, David Edward ACT 771
    PARLOUR, David CHP 329
    PURNELL, Max LAB 8,748
    ROBERTSON, Lee UFNZ 1,113

  43. Phil 43

    I’ve done a bit of back-of-the-envelope number crunching (when I could be sitting down with a vino in the wellington sun… how sad am I?) and I think you can safely call this ‘rogue’.

    National’s figure is down more than 3 times the standard deviation of the last year from Roy Morgan – that roughly equates to a 99% probability that it’s got some downward bias in results.

    [that’s not how polling works.. people are allowed to change their minds. and TV3 right now has Nat’s 45%, Lab 39%, Green, 6.8%, NZF 2.7%, Maori 2.5%, ACT 1.8%, UF 0.1%, Progs 0.1%. SP]

  44. Tony. National’s ‘plan’ is to do what they were always going to do. Key’s 5 point ‘plan’ is the same vagues stuff (I think even the same wording) he has been saying for half a year.

    – tax cuts for the rich (slightly scaled down)
    – anti-community, pro-developer modifications to the RMA
    – anti-savings, anti-R&D
    – cap public service numbers.

  45. gobsmacked 45

    “I will reserve my judgement until I see the next poll.”

    You didn’t have long to wait, Tony. See 3 News results tonight. So that’s … two rogue polls.

    Heh.

  46. outofbed 46

    gobsmacked
    you beat me to it you bastard 🙂

  47. Alex 47

    Might not be a rogue. TV3 had Labour on 39% and National on 45%.

  48. jon 48

    Hahahahahahaha to the Tories

  49. pohutukawa kid 49

    I’ve said it all along
    The Keister has no clothes

  50. Draco T Bastard 50

    That huge chunk of Green is beautiful.

    Sure is – still, would be nice to see 11% or 12% on the day.

  51. randal 51

    ACTION RIGHT NOW: HC is on the teev. she is looking mighty good!

  52. Carol 52

    She looked good = a new look suggests new directions. Key’s seems already to be a bit out of date re- not borrowing for tax cuts. that’s not really been the criticism of his plan.

    He has focused on some of the same issues eg education as Clark. Note to both. Giving support for alternatives to high school education is a good idea, but it all depends on the quality and innovativeness of the courses on offer. Also Mr Key: vocational courses work for some students who are turned of secondary school, but not all by any means. It actually requires many pre-vocational and other sorts of courses.

    And I’m not keen on the whole thing of Key bringing in his anecdote about his kids – dog whistle re- the “barren” Clark kind of smears. key’s vid is better than Clark’s on the uplifting music at the end,,,, tho a bit US presidential style.

  53. Carl 53

    Possibly the most important thing about this poll result, is that it is part of a clear trend in Roy Morgan polls since June, with the Nats on the way down, and Labour on the way up. I think their tax cut package will not help them either.

    To be honest, i will be surprised if the nats poll as low as 40 on election night. In some ways, it would be better if Labour needed the support of the Greens and the Maori Party, as that might pull them to the left!

    The other interesting variable will be whether NZF make it back, especially as Winn\ston has now been cleared by the SFO.

  54. higherstandard 54

    The thing that staggers me Carl is that 48% of those questioned thought that NZ was heading in the right direction compared to only 39.5 that thought we were going in the wrong direction, I suspect this means that most of the polling was completed prior to the PREFU and the Nats tax package

    I would expect this to turn around in the next poll and it will be interesting to see the effect that has on party support – I have no idea which way it’ll go – I had my money on the Nats getting just over 45% of the vote and Labour at the 38% mark unfortunately my betting history is cak.

  55. Pablo 55

    Cheers Lynn

  56. gobsmacked 56

    Awww. Nice kids, singing for John Key in his TV ad.

    This was filmed at a private school (Corelli). Fees: 15,000 dollars a year. What’s that in cheese?

  57. Tane 57

    gobsmacked. If you have any details please email us.

    Sure didn’t look like any school I’ve ever been to.

  58. gobsmacked 58

    Tane et al – there are pictures of John Key and more info on the school’s website: just Google “Corelli” (sorry, no link because of the moderation trap).

  59. Phil 59

    Steve,
    [that’s not how polling works.. people are allowed to change their minds.

    Yeah, I know how polling works… I dug a little deeper and looked at overall main party ‘bleed’ to the minors, and also rates of change;

    Combined, National and Labour tend to have a strong negative correlation – this poll didn’t. In terms of rate of change, a single polling company very rarely gets that kind of movement from one round to the next.
    I’m still leaning toward rougeness, as there wasn’t a great deal of big headline grabbing stuff during the polling period.

    I ran the numbers on RoyM before seeing the TV3 data, so will do the same and see what comes up there too.

  60. noxxano 60

    Keep up the faith red brothers, because your disappointment will be even sweeter!

    Labour deserves to be caned and will be punished by the thinking public.

    [lprent: Strange comment. I wonder what your video collection looks like?]

  61. Scribe 61

    Interesting that there’s not yet a post on the TVNZ poll from last night, showing Labour 18 points adrift.

    Tane,

    I wouldn’t have raised this if you hadn’t posted on other topics since the poll came out.

  62. Tane 62

    Scribe. I don’t put any faith in Colmar Brunton. Even Guyon was distancing himself from it.

  63. Scribe 63

    Fair enough. And you’re obviously free to post on anything you like, but after the giddy posting about the two polls on Friday, I’d have thought a post saying “Colmar Brunton poll’s out, but I have no faith in it” would have been a good idea.

    [lprent: 08wire already wrote the definitive article on why colmar-brunton sux.
    http://08wire.org/2008/10/08/colmar-brunton-poll-better-but-still-biased/ ]

  64. Matthew Pilott 64

    Well scribe, that’s awfully clever of you to figure that out! Two ticks scribe huh? Two polls showing something very different might just be worth commenting on more than one of the same, especially if people have other things to write about.

    But that’s not your point.

    Why not just have the guts to say what you’re really thinking scribe, instead of dressing it up all nice?

  65. Tane 65

    Well, I’m busy Scribe. I had time to cut and paste post a cartoon this morning, but that’s all. And I was working all weekend so missed the poll. You can consider my last comment a post if you like.

    You’ll also note it wasn’t actually me who posted the 3 News poll.

  66. Pascal's bookie 66

    Scribe, I notice you noticed the posts on polls, but didn’t notice you commenting untill after the silly one news poll.

    Commenting prior to that would have been a good idea, dontcha think?

    I wouldn’t have noticed this, or commented on it, but you seem to find this crap interesting.

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