Roy Morgan poll

Written By: - Date published: 2:09 pm, October 10th, 2008 - 66 comments
Categories: election 2008, polls - Tags:

The new Roy Morgan poll is out today. It was taken between Sep 22 and October 5, and has National’s vote collapsing by 7 points to 40.5%, Labour up one to 37.5 and the Greens shooting up to 9. So very good news for the Left.

I’d be careful about reading too much into this one, though. It just doesn’t seem credible that National took such a huge drop over the surveyed period.

Still, it’s not good news for National with the election less than a month away and the fallout from their poorly received tax plan and the latest secret tape still to come. The next round of polls should be very interesting.

66 comments on “Roy Morgan poll”

  1. Lampie 1

    do they give a percentage of undecided? Been thinking about all Polls. if the previous poll had a larger number of undecided then this can lead to a more narrow gap between the two. So if 25% are undecided, that can affect the result….BANG, just like that

  2. Tane 2

    I don’t believe Roy Morgan does. Interesting point though.

    oops – error in the table, i’ve left nz first on six seats. will fix. [fixed]

  3. Lampie 3

    Also the other thing that usually goes in Roy Morgan’s favour is sample size. Usually about 30% bigger than others. Bigger is better, no debate there.

  4. Lampie 4

    If made of decided voters, then this doesn’t paint a good true picture. They may have asked 3000 people and got only 900 odd to answer.

    So what’s the point? well… lots of votes out there to grab 🙂

  5. higherstandard 5

    Feck National better get back up around 47% otherwise I’ll be out of the money with the book we’re running at work.

  6. Pascal's bookie 6

    HS, aren’t you also on the record as having McCain win, (and being a fine president) in the uS race.

  7. higherstandard 7

    PB

    True my betting record isn’t good.

    I’m also on record as saying I didn’t really care too much who got in with the US elections as long as their last name wasn’t Bush or Clinton.

  8. Hi Tane

    I am not so sure about the drop being not creditable. If you think about what has happened recently it really could be that the wheels have fallen off National’s campaign.

    The Key Transrail sharetrading scandal was not a good look. MPs using information gained from their position and then using a parliamentary sponsored publication to talk the price up is not good. Helen Clark has said it takes a couple of weeks for a scandal like this to have an effect and maybe this is now happening.

    The way I see it the turmoil in the US finance markets has deeply unnerved local people. It is the shenanigans of traders like Key which has caused current problems. I believe that people are slowly dawning to the idea that there has been too much financial freedom for institutions and they have abused it.

    So in NZ who are you going to trust? Clark and Cullen who have shown adept and long sighted handling of the economy or a trader who is not able to see more than three months ahead?

    The fat lady has not sung yet …

  9. We all know how unreliable these polls are but this is definitely good for the Left. Remeber Labour was way down in the last poll before the 2005 election and ended up winning. The whole idea of polling has been corrupted. Starting under FDR, it was first supposed to track people’s views so the governement could respond to them. Now it’s all about influencing and manipulating people’s views to attain a result more favourable to corporate intereststs.

    BBC documentary filmmaker Adam Curtis’ ‘Century of the Self’ deals with this brilliantly. Check it out on Youtube: http://nz.youtube.com/watch?v=2LjNQIJ-P3o

    But this poll result is good news. National seem to underestimate the intelligence of New Zealanders. I think enough people will realise National’s tax package is a major step backwards. There’s every reason to think the Left will do very well in this election in the end but, with all the media propaganda and spin it’ll be a nervous ride until then. It’s the grassroots that will win it for the left. People don’t trust the mainstream media and their headlines have less effect by the day.

  10. Dom 10

    My god, ACT with four seats? That’s a chilling thought….

  11. Tane 11

    Hi Micky. Yeah, that’s possible. It’s also possible that Labour’s support suffered during the Winston fiasco and rose after it subsided. It may be possible that as the election nears people are really starting to weigh up the different policies and visions on offer.

    I don’t know, which is why I think we’re safer to wait until we see this trend in other polls before getting too excited or, even worse, complacent.

  12. lprent 12

    Apparently the TV3 poll coming up on the weekend is also quite good for the left. If that rumor pans out then it might actually be the start of a trend.

    I suspect that we’re starting to see the undecided and ‘go aways’ deciding which way that they will jump. That usually clicks on in the polls about 5-6 weeks out from the election. The polls then start getting much closer together and somewhat more accurate. It is no longer the self-selected sample that the polling companies are getting between elections.

    It will be interesting because TNS gives the undecided (but not the no-answered or the no-phones). If that is reducing then it is a pretty good indicator.

    Note the dates on this poll too – Sept 5th means that it has no stuff from the Nat’s tax package.

  13. Higherstandard 13

    Lynn

    And no stuff from the Prefu ?

    Polls shmoles – wait till the 9th of November then we can all be wise after the fact.

  14. lprent 14

    hs: Exactly…. But it is in the period with the steadily worsening news from offshore and diminishing expectations of what the Nat’s could deliver. Apart from the anti-labour social conservatism, the only other issue the Nat’s have traction on has been tax.

    I don’t think that the PREFU or the Nat’s tax package are very helpful for the Nat’s.

  15. HS yeah, but what would we use to fill column inches otherwise?

    Polls are important for trends, we’ll have to see if this is part of a trend or not over coming weeks.

  16. Ron Hanson: thanks for this..

    To watch for is – as I believe lprent is saying – the formerly undecideds and/or undeclared preferences. Likely to more closely reflect what folks are thinking per the original FDR intent.

  17. Lampie 17

    “Now it’s all about influencing and manipulating people’s views to attain a result more favourable to corporate intereststs.”

    yeap and that is what corporates’ have to be careful of as well. If you are a research company, you would perhaps create a favourable picture for the sponsor of the research they commissioned with you.

    Statistics is the art of lying.

    Approx, there is about 1%(think it is smaller) of the population who actually have a degree in statistics so the media can paint a mis-leading picture to suit their own agenda.

  18. vidiot 18

    Somethings a bit out of whack.

    The RM figures for Auckland (September – the only that is current) shows LAB down 5% (to 32.5), NAT up 2.5 (to 47.5), NZF down to 3.5, Green up to 7.5, Act on 4.0 and the rest lagging below 2.5.

    Yet the overall results are the reverse of this ?

    I guess Nov 9th we shall all know.

    /me walks away scratching his lucky gonads

  19. Daveski 19

    It would seem most possible that the MP will get more than 4 seats leading to an overhang and putting them into the King/Queen maker position.

    I’d also be genuinely surprised to see the Greens at 9% come polling day.

    Deemac – if you read this post, please let me know if you need any further assistance 😉

  20. vidiot 20

    There appears to be something awry with Morgan’s end-of-month polls. In the last two they have had the margin at 6.5% and 3%, whereas the mid-month polls have the difference at 14% and 11%.

    Now either something happens mid-month regarding policy releases, or Roy Morgan change the phone-roster, but those “rogue” results haven’t been backed up by any other polling organisation.

  21. had enough 21

    Rubbish of a poll, if you have a look at the breakdown of the results area by area you will see that National polled above 40.5% in all cases.

    So even if they were weighted you would still get a result above 40.5%

    Roy Morgan stuffed up on that one!

    [lprent: Have a look at the dates on the regions. The devil is ALWAYS in the detail.]

  22. middleground 22

    I’d be wary of the poll, seems it was run before the Government opened the books and National revealed their ‘Economic Development’ plan. Certainly keen to see how the next poll will reflect the latest

  23. had enough. those regional breakdowns are for older polls. well done.

  24. Pat 24

    Based on this poll, Labour would just need to get NZF across the line to form a government without the Maori Party.

    Labour must be seriously thinking of handing Ron Mark a free run in Rimutaka.

  25. Tane 25

    Pat. I can tell you for a fact that will never happen.

    Whose spin are you peddling this time – Tame Hooton, Whale or the Hive?

  26. Lampie 26

    Rubbish of a poll, if you have a look at the breakdown of the results area by area you will see that National polled above 40.5% in all cases.

    ????????????????

    [lprent: Check the dates on the areas. When I looked at it, most were in August apart from Auckland.]

  27. Pat 27

    Tane – how do you know that for a fact? Do you work for Helen?

    [lprent: Basically the NZLP doesn’t throw seats for anyone. The nearest I can ever remember was last election in Epsom where the NZLP candidate made an ill-advised comment. Helen was (to put it mildly) ‘annoyed’ along with the rest of the party.

    Unlike Tane, I do work for Helen (or she works for me depending on your point of view). I’m a volunteer in Mt Albert which is where I live usually (depending on boundary changes), and where I grew up. Tane has previously said that he isn’t a member of any party (from memory).

    Pat: Read the About and Policy at the top of the screen. I defend this site vigorously and prefer to replace commentators rather than posters or moderators. I view attacks on posters and moderators as attacks on the site. ]

  28. Tane 28

    Pat. Don’t be stupid, I have my sources. But you don’t need sources to work this one out.

    I mean, think about it. How does it make political sense to give up a seat, possibly for decades, to a party that could turn on you in the future? Especially Ron Mark, who appears to be on the right of NZ First and would no doubt happily work with National (and they with him).

  29. Lampie 29

    had enough. those regional breakdowns are for older polls. well done.

    ah, cheers Steve, wondering what he was on about.

  30. Lampie 30

    Yeah I knew that Iprent, was wondering what had enough was on about.

    Bit like those who look at benefit figures, miss those fine point details

  31. Tony Norriss 31

    The Colmar Brunton Poll was held over a similar period (27th Sept-2nd Oct) and that showed the gap had increased to 19 points. So, I wouldn’t start rejoicing too much yet. The Morgan Poll had NZ First at 6% last time as well, a complete contradiction to other polls. So the Morgan polls does seem out of step with other polls.

    However, it is a good wake-up call for National. I actually expect the polls might close up a bit for a while. At the moment Labour is doing a lot of attacking of National’s tax plan. However, they are not putting forward a credible package of their own. At the moment, John Key is right to say that the Prime Minister is missing in action.

    Labour will need to put something up very soon. When that happens, National will be able to get stuck into it.

  32. BeShakey 32

    ” However, they are not putting forward a credible package of their own.”

    Did you miss the Budget? Or the last 9 years when Labour has strengthened the economy and the fundamentals supporting it, while managing the economy in a way that has left it much better able to deal with the kind of problems we are now facing than if National’s proposals had been implemented?

    As Lampie noted, the fine point details make a difference.

  33. lprent 33

    TN: Yeah even amongst the lousy polling techniques used, the Colmar Brunton has been outstanding as one of the most inaccurate there is over the decades. It’s results seem to bear no real relationship to reality – even taking margins of errors either with other polls or with the real one (the elections).

    08Wire thinks that it is getting better – “Colmar Brunton poll: Better, but still biased“. I’ll start taking notice of it after I see it get within the error margins of an election result.

    Until then I’ll ignore it in the way that I have for a decade or so.

    The Morgan polls have always seemed to be the closest to reality. They track pretty well before elections with the canvassing that I see for trends and are usually the closest in terms of real numbers to end results.

  34. Tony Norriss 34

    Beshakey said: “Did you miss the Budget? Or the last 9 years when Labour has strengthened the economy and the fundamentals supporting it”

    I think the previous budget is irrelevant now given current conditions which have changed very significantly since then. Labour was acting previously in an economy that was going gang-busters. They haven’t had to face this sort of scenario before, which is quite unprecedented.

    I think people are getting very concerned and want to see a coherent plan that will get us through the current situation.

    Iprent said: “Yeah even amongst the lousy polling techniques used, the Colmar Brunton has been outstanding as one of the most inaccurate there is over the decades.”

    But it was very similar to the recent TV3 poll, so their is consistency between several polls compared to the Morgan which has tended to be out on its own. I will reserve my judgement until I see the next poll.

  35. Matthew Pilott 35

    Labour was acting previously in an economy that was going gang-busters. They haven’t had to face this sort of scenario before, which is quite unprecedented.

    Are you kidding? This has been going on for months, nearly a year. Just because it’s been a bigger headline after Lehmann (sic?) and freddie/fannie went up doens’t mean nothing was going on before. The wall st debacle didn’t happen in a vaccuum.

  36. Paul Robeson 36

    This is good news.

    Two polls out in recent times, even if they aren’t correct, they will give heart to people like me who were feeling sick at the cynicism, and to those who might consider getting out to vote now the hill doesn’t seem unclimbable.

    Has anyone done a line on John Key trying to pressure the reserve bank, and being told he was wrong by both Dr. Bollard and Don Brash?

    If this man wants to lead our country he could do well to stop undermining the reserve banks attempts to reassure the markets about the relative strengths of our economy. And perhaps look at the job description of the position he is applying for.

  37. bill brown 37

    Is this “not putting forward a credible package” the new line?

    I see Espiner’s already bought into it.

  38. r0b 38

    I think people are getting very concerned and want to see a coherent plan that will get us through the current situation

    My understanding is that Labour will be releasing their policy soon.

    Labour set a firm foundation of savings and investment (KiwiSaver) and funding for research. That’s the kind of growth oriented long term planning that we need. Expect Labour’s policy when released to be similarly prudent and effective.

    National have chucked all that on the bonfire of tax cuts for the rich – a short term boost to consumer spending. Gut the savings, kill the research. That’s their plan. That’s it. Unbelievable.

  39. Pablo 39

    [lprent: Basically the NZLP doesn’t throw seats for anyone. The nearest I can ever remember was last election in Epsom where the NZLP candidate made an ill-advised comment. Helen was (to put it mildly) ‘annoyed’ along with the rest of the party.

    Actually, I recall Labour throwing Coromandel to give Jeanette a clear run back in 1999 (maybe? hazy memory). She won it too.

    Captcha is spooky again: Dutchess permits (not that we’d ever refer to HC as “The Duchess”.

  40. Tane 40

    That huge chunk of Green is beautiful.

  41. r0b 41

    That huge chunk of Green is beautiful.

    Certainly is. Let’s hope the election result is greener still!

  42. lprent 42

    Pablo: I don’t think that the party did (I have no idea about the candidate). I do think that the voters in that electorate probably did.

    http://1999.electionresults.govt.nz/e9/html/cand_09.html

    BIRD, Tony Alliance 1217 3.56%
    FITZSIMONS, Jeanette Green Party 13682 39.98%
    HAWKESWOOD, Margaret Labour Party 3892 11.37%
    McDONALD, Robyn New Zealand First Party 1237 3.61%
    McLEAN, Murray National Party 13432 39.25%
    PARLOUR, David Christian Heritage Party 760 2.22%

    http://2002.electionresults.org.nz/electorate-9.html

    ANDERSON, Annette PC 367
    FITZSIMONS, Jeanette GP 7,724
    GOUDIE, Sandra NAT 14,706
    OLSEN, David Edward ACT 771
    PARLOUR, David CHP 329
    PURNELL, Max LAB 8,748
    ROBERTSON, Lee UFNZ 1,113

  43. Phil 43

    I’ve done a bit of back-of-the-envelope number crunching (when I could be sitting down with a vino in the wellington sun… how sad am I?) and I think you can safely call this ‘rogue’.

    National’s figure is down more than 3 times the standard deviation of the last year from Roy Morgan – that roughly equates to a 99% probability that it’s got some downward bias in results.

    [that’s not how polling works.. people are allowed to change their minds. and TV3 right now has Nat’s 45%, Lab 39%, Green, 6.8%, NZF 2.7%, Maori 2.5%, ACT 1.8%, UF 0.1%, Progs 0.1%. SP]

  44. Tony. National’s ‘plan’ is to do what they were always going to do. Key’s 5 point ‘plan’ is the same vagues stuff (I think even the same wording) he has been saying for half a year.

    – tax cuts for the rich (slightly scaled down)
    – anti-community, pro-developer modifications to the RMA
    – anti-savings, anti-R&D
    – cap public service numbers.

  45. gobsmacked 45

    “I will reserve my judgement until I see the next poll.”

    You didn’t have long to wait, Tony. See 3 News results tonight. So that’s … two rogue polls.

    Heh.

  46. outofbed 46

    gobsmacked
    you beat me to it you bastard 🙂

  47. Alex 47

    Might not be a rogue. TV3 had Labour on 39% and National on 45%.

  48. jon 48

    Hahahahahahaha to the Tories

  49. pohutukawa kid 49

    I’ve said it all along
    The Keister has no clothes

  50. Draco T Bastard 50

    That huge chunk of Green is beautiful.

    Sure is – still, would be nice to see 11% or 12% on the day.

  51. randal 51

    ACTION RIGHT NOW: HC is on the teev. she is looking mighty good!

  52. Carol 52

    She looked good = a new look suggests new directions. Key’s seems already to be a bit out of date re- not borrowing for tax cuts. that’s not really been the criticism of his plan.

    He has focused on some of the same issues eg education as Clark. Note to both. Giving support for alternatives to high school education is a good idea, but it all depends on the quality and innovativeness of the courses on offer. Also Mr Key: vocational courses work for some students who are turned of secondary school, but not all by any means. It actually requires many pre-vocational and other sorts of courses.

    And I’m not keen on the whole thing of Key bringing in his anecdote about his kids – dog whistle re- the “barren” Clark kind of smears. key’s vid is better than Clark’s on the uplifting music at the end,,,, tho a bit US presidential style.

  53. Carl 53

    Possibly the most important thing about this poll result, is that it is part of a clear trend in Roy Morgan polls since June, with the Nats on the way down, and Labour on the way up. I think their tax cut package will not help them either.

    To be honest, i will be surprised if the nats poll as low as 40 on election night. In some ways, it would be better if Labour needed the support of the Greens and the Maori Party, as that might pull them to the left!

    The other interesting variable will be whether NZF make it back, especially as Winn\ston has now been cleared by the SFO.

  54. higherstandard 54

    The thing that staggers me Carl is that 48% of those questioned thought that NZ was heading in the right direction compared to only 39.5 that thought we were going in the wrong direction, I suspect this means that most of the polling was completed prior to the PREFU and the Nats tax package

    I would expect this to turn around in the next poll and it will be interesting to see the effect that has on party support – I have no idea which way it’ll go – I had my money on the Nats getting just over 45% of the vote and Labour at the 38% mark unfortunately my betting history is cak.

  55. Pablo 55

    Cheers Lynn

  56. gobsmacked 56

    Awww. Nice kids, singing for John Key in his TV ad.

    This was filmed at a private school (Corelli). Fees: 15,000 dollars a year. What’s that in cheese?

  57. Tane 57

    gobsmacked. If you have any details please email us.

    Sure didn’t look like any school I’ve ever been to.

  58. gobsmacked 58

    Tane et al – there are pictures of John Key and more info on the school’s website: just Google “Corelli” (sorry, no link because of the moderation trap).

  59. Phil 59

    Steve,
    [that’s not how polling works.. people are allowed to change their minds.

    Yeah, I know how polling works… I dug a little deeper and looked at overall main party ‘bleed’ to the minors, and also rates of change;

    Combined, National and Labour tend to have a strong negative correlation – this poll didn’t. In terms of rate of change, a single polling company very rarely gets that kind of movement from one round to the next.
    I’m still leaning toward rougeness, as there wasn’t a great deal of big headline grabbing stuff during the polling period.

    I ran the numbers on RoyM before seeing the TV3 data, so will do the same and see what comes up there too.

  60. noxxano 60

    Keep up the faith red brothers, because your disappointment will be even sweeter!

    Labour deserves to be caned and will be punished by the thinking public.

    [lprent: Strange comment. I wonder what your video collection looks like?]

  61. Scribe 61

    Interesting that there’s not yet a post on the TVNZ poll from last night, showing Labour 18 points adrift.

    Tane,

    I wouldn’t have raised this if you hadn’t posted on other topics since the poll came out.

  62. Tane 62

    Scribe. I don’t put any faith in Colmar Brunton. Even Guyon was distancing himself from it.

  63. Scribe 63

    Fair enough. And you’re obviously free to post on anything you like, but after the giddy posting about the two polls on Friday, I’d have thought a post saying “Colmar Brunton poll’s out, but I have no faith in it” would have been a good idea.

    [lprent: 08wire already wrote the definitive article on why colmar-brunton sux.
    http://08wire.org/2008/10/08/colmar-brunton-poll-better-but-still-biased/ ]

  64. Matthew Pilott 64

    Well scribe, that’s awfully clever of you to figure that out! Two ticks scribe huh? Two polls showing something very different might just be worth commenting on more than one of the same, especially if people have other things to write about.

    But that’s not your point.

    Why not just have the guts to say what you’re really thinking scribe, instead of dressing it up all nice?

  65. Tane 65

    Well, I’m busy Scribe. I had time to cut and paste post a cartoon this morning, but that’s all. And I was working all weekend so missed the poll. You can consider my last comment a post if you like.

    You’ll also note it wasn’t actually me who posted the 3 News poll.

  66. Pascal's bookie 66

    Scribe, I notice you noticed the posts on polls, but didn’t notice you commenting untill after the silly one news poll.

    Commenting prior to that would have been a good idea, dontcha think?

    I wouldn’t have noticed this, or commented on it, but you seem to find this crap interesting.

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    Nick Wilson, Leah Grout, Mereana Wilson, Anja Mizdrak, Phil Shoemack, Michael Baker Protecting waterways has the benefits of: (1) protecting water from hazardous microbes; (2) minimising cancer risk and other problems from nitrates in water; (3) avoiding algal blooms that are hazardous to health; (4) protecting mahinga kai uses (cultural ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    3 days ago
  • Massey University triggered to rebrand
    by The Council of Disobedient Women In a press release today Massey University announced it has decided to rebrand and reorientate after struggling to be a University for grown-ups. For some time the University has wanted to be a safe play space for wee-woke-misogynists who have been really badly triggered ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    4 days ago
  • Swinson backing calls for a second referendum (again)
    After a brief dalliance with 'hard Revoke' it looks like the Lib Dems are changing ground on on Brexit, with leader Jo Swinson reverting to calling for a second referendum on Johnson's deal.The party has tabled an amendment to the Queen’s speech requesting that any deal brought back from Brussels ...
    4 days ago
  • An odious bill
    The government has decided that someone has done Something Bad. But despite their belief, there seems to be no evidence that they have actually broken the law. So the government's solution is to pass a retrospective law allowing them to be punished anyway, on a lower standard of proof. If ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • National is now the party of climate arson
    So, Judith Collins has done a Facebook rant about climate change, peddling the same shit National has been shovelling for the past twenty years: the impacts are overstated, there's no need to do anything about it, and its too hard anyway (oh, and its so unfair that people who peddle ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • The environmental footprint of electric versus fossil car
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz There is a lot of discussion on the benefits of ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    4 days ago
  • “Manifest” by Andrew Bird – A Song For The Times.
    I came across this song quite by accident. If it isn't one of Greta Thunberg's favourites - it should be.Video courtesy of YouTube.This post is exclusive to Bowalley Road. ...
    4 days ago
  • Passing the buck
    Last month, NZDF's shoddy coverup of what it knew about civilian casualties in Operation Burnham began to fall apart, with the revelation that a report on the matter, which NZDF claimed not to have, had been sitting in an NZDF safe for the past nine years. Yesterday, the man responsible ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • India a major player in Earth observation satellites
    While many imagine that countries like the USA and Europe dominate space activities, in fact India is now a major player on this stage. It launches satellites for its own purposes and also commercially, and has constellations orbiting our planet and returning data of vital importance to that nation in ...
    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    5 days ago
  • The rot at the top (2).
    Thanks to a report from the Acting Inspector General of Intelligence and Security following a complaint by Nicky Hager, we have come to find out that the SIS illegally spied on Mr. Hager on behalf of the NZDF after publication of Hager’s 2011 book, Other People’s Wars. The NZDF justified ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    5 days ago
  • Common misconceptions about “Global Warming”
    COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING MYTH 1: Global temperatures are rising at a rapid, unprecedented rate. FACT: The HadCRUT3 surface temperature index, produced by the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office and the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, shows warming to 1878, cooling to 1911, ...
    An average kiwiBy admin@averagekiwi.com
    5 days ago
  • A climate of tyranny
    For the past week, Extinction Rebellion has been peacefully protesting in London to demand action on climate change. The British government's response? Ban their protests:Police have banned Extinction Rebellion protests from continuing anywhere in London, as they moved in almost without warning to clear protesters who remained at the movement’s ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Collins crushes climate
    An essay by Judith Collins MP reported on Carbon News yesterday seems to show an alarming shift in attitude within the National Party. Collins argues against the Zero Carbon Bill, the Paris Agreement, and downplays the magnitude of climate impacts. The Paris Agreement was adopted in December 2015 and ratified ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert McLachlan
    5 days ago
  • More disappointment
    When they were running for election, Labour promised to overhaul the Employment Relations Act and introduce fair pay agreements to set basic pay and conditions on an industry level, preventing bad employers from undercutting good ones. They followed this up by establishing a working group, which reported back in January ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • What do these mother-child studies really say about fluoridation?
    A list of indicators of bad science – many of these are found in articles promoted by anti-fluoride activists. Anti-fluoride activists have been pouring money into a scaremongering campaign warning pregnant women not to drink fluoridated water. They claim fluoride will lower the IQ of their future child. Fluoride ...
    5 days ago
  • Losing Labour’s Mills-Tone.
    Nothing Left To Say: Labour's pollster, Stephen Mills, remains swaddled-up in the comforting myths of the 1980s. As if the experience of Roger Douglas’s genuinely radical post-Muldoon policy agenda was literally a once-in-a-lifetime thing – as much as the party could possibly absorb for at least the next 50 years.MEMO ...
    5 days ago
  • Speaker: Disability and the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse
    The Royal Commission on abuse in care is very significant for the disability community. For many decades last century, thousands of disabled children, and adults who managed to survive, were locked away from families and communities. This was not for anything they had done, but for the perceived threat their ...
    5 days ago
  • Spain is not a democracy
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • UK Conservatives hate democracy
    With an unfair voting system, uneven electorates and an un-elected upper house, the UK's "democracy" is barely worthy of the name. But now the government wants to make it worse:The government has been accused of suppressing voters’ rights with the potential disenfranchisement of tens of thousands of people after plans ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • What is wrong with our building industry?
    Back in the 90's and early 2000's, the building industry was building leaky homes which should never have been granted consent. Now it turns out they've been building dodgy office blocks as well:New imaging technology has revealed hundreds of major buildings nationwide have defective or missing concrete or reinforcing steel. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Local bodies
    Local body election results were released over the weekend, to joy or despair depending on where you live. In Auckland, Phil Goff trounced John Tamihere, who is muttering darkly about running for Parliament again (but which party would want him?) Wellington is now a wholly-owned subsidiary of Weta Workshop, except ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • A future of government
      How could government evolve over the next decades? Reports of democracy’s imminent demise are greatly exaggerated.  However, satisfaction with political systems in many countries is low, so there is much to do for governments of all political stripes to improve relevance and trust. Digital technologies are seen as one ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert Hickson
    1 week ago
  • Speaker: Catalonia, interrupted
    Two years have now gone by since the Friday afternoon when my university-student son and I headed out of our Barcelona flat to a nearby primary school, designated as a polling station for the vote that was to be held the following Sunday: the referendum on Catalonia’s independence from Spain ...
    1 week ago
  • Sage Decisions Unwisely Over-Ruled.
    Overruled: The joint decision of Finance Minister, Grant Robertson (Labour) and his Associate Minister, David Parker (Labour) arguably the two most powerful ministers in Jacinda Ardern’s government, to grant OceanaGold the consents which Land Information Minister, Eugenie Sage (Greens) had earlier denied them, offers bitter proof of how hard fighting ...
    1 week ago
  • Government may ban voting in effort to get more people to do it
    More than double the number of people who will vote in this year’s local body elections have tried marijuana or urinated somewhere they shouldn’t have. As local elections look set for the lowest turnout in decades, with many regions falling well short of 40%, the Government is exploring a number ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Woman: Deleted.
    A Statement on Abortion Law Reform by the Council of Disobedient Women   On the eve of bringing an end to antiquated, anti-women abortion laws Green MP Jan Logie intends to write women out of the Bill. With a stroke of the pen, the woke are aiming for total erasure ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • The Hollowest of Men Ride Again… SURPRISE!
    Musings continue apace about “the experienced businessman!” soon to be taking up a National Party MP position. Or to be more accurate, being parachuted into a seat to shut down their former MP Jamie-Lee Ross, who despite his own shortcomings shed at least some more light on the inner workings ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    1 week ago
  • Barbaric
    The Ugandan government wants to murder gay people:Uganda has announced plans to impose the death penalty on homosexuals. The bill, colloquially known as “Kill the Gays” in Uganda, was nullified five years ago on a technicality, but the government said on Thursday it plans to resurrect it within weeks. The ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Fighting Monsters.
    Freedom Of Speech? The Säuberung (cleansing by fire) was the work of the German Student Union which, on 10 May 1933, under the watchful eye of the Nazi Reichminister for Propaganda, Joseph Goebbels, consigned 25,000 books to the flames in a ritual exorcism of “un-German thought”. According to the logic of the ...
    1 week ago
  • The next wave of kaupapa Māori politics: its constitutional, it must be.
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    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    1 week ago
  • Night lights of NZ from orbit
    New Zealand has prided itself for decades with regard to its lack of pollution, and all will be aware that the ‘100% Pure New Zealand‘ meme is under threat through land, water and air pollution of various causes. There is another type of contamination that the country also faces: light ...
    SciBlogsBy Duncan Steel
    1 week ago
  • Reporters deliver uplifting news to fleeing Japanese residents: they won’t miss any rugby
    New Zealand’s media is doing its part in Japan, reassuring those in the path of the storm that they won’t miss any rugby while away from their flooded homes. New Zealand sports reporters stationed in Japan for the Rugby World Cup have had the rare and heartwarming opportunity to inform ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Government in contentious discussions about whether to put surplus on red or black
    Regional Development Minister Shane Jones is the only Cabinet member in favour of putting it all on green. As Finance Minister Grant Robertson finds himself with an enormous $7.5 billion surplus, the Government has begun intense, at times contentious conversations about whether to put the money on red or black at ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Jordanian teachers’ successful strike has lessons for here
    by Susanne Kemp At the start of September close to 100,000 school teachers went on strike in Jordan.  They demanded a 50% pay rise.  A pay rise actually agreed to by the regime back in 2014. In early October, however, in the face of government repression and threats, the teachers’ ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Why some people still think climate change isn’t real
    Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz Why do people still think climate change isn’t real? David ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • The SIS unlawfully spied on Nicky Hager
    Back in 2011, journalist Nicky Hager published Other People's Wars, an expose on NZDF's activities over the previous decade of the "war on terror". NZDF didn't like this, and especially didn't like the fact that it was base don leaks from their own. So, they had the SIS investigate him ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • October 2019 – Newsletter
    https://mailchi.mp/7d9133add053/closing-the-gap-october-2019-newsletter ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    1 week ago
  • And they wonder why we think they’re environmental vandals…
    The Zero Carbon Bill is due back from select committee in two weeks, and will likely pass its final stages in November. So naturally, farmers are planning a hate-march against it. But they're not just demanding lower methane targets so they can keep on destroying the planet; they're also demanding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Paying the price in California
    Last year, California burned. This year, to stop it happening again (or rather, to stop themselves from being found liable if it happens again), Pacific Gas and Electric is cutting power to half the state for a week:Schools are closed. Traffic lights down. Tunnels dark. Businesses unopened. Hospitals running on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Let’s Hear It For Up-Close-And-Personal, Hard-Copy Democracy!
    The Best Way: Missing from the on-line voting debate is any reference to the voting system that produces turn-out figures ranging from 77 to 93 percent of registered voters. The voting system used to collect and count the votes cast in our parliamentary elections. The system that involves citizens making ...
    1 week ago
  • 10/10: World Day Against the Death Penalty
    Today, October 10, is the world day against the death penalty. Out of 195 UN member states, 84 still permit capital punishment. Today is the day we work to change that. This year's theme is children. Having a parent sentenced to death or executed causes long-term trauma and stigmatization which ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Talking Freer Lives: a Marxist gender-critical perspective from Australia
    Among the great new bunch of political friends we have been making recently is the excellent Australian-based Marxist gender-critical site, Freer Lives.  So we asked the comrade who set up that blog to write something for Redline on the blog, himself, his analysis of the rise of gender politics and ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Government spin accepted by union leadership
    by Don Franks  The Auckland City Mission is struggling with a 40 percent increase in demand for food parcels this year. A total of 23,020 were needed by June. Last month Missioner Chris Farrelly told the Herald the “cupboards are bare” and without an emergency food drive, he can’t see ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Forbidden Thoughts
    by The Council of Disobedient Women   Massey Wellington Student Association had a sit-in today. Imagine a sit-in. On a campus. Against a women’s rights meeting. Did the ’60s really happen or did we fucking dream it? They gathered in the student square, an echo chamber. Sitting on soft pillows ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Much love to my loyal Ukrainian readership
    For some reasons, my post about the mystery message from inside the Downing Street bunker seemed to catch people's attention.  Quite a lot of hits from NZ (unsurprisingly) and the USA (a bit more puzzlingly, but hi there, USAians!!) and 76 views from the Ukraine.I've celebrated my Ukrainian readers in ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Another day of bonkers GNUmours (again, sorry)
    First, almost a score of Labour MPs seem to have sent a letter to the EU basically begging them to accept a deal - any deal - just so Britain can get the Heck on with Brexiting instead of being trapped in limbo:
    To avoid no deal, deliver on the ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour vs working class immigrants – again!
    by Phil Duncan In 2016 the National-led government suspended the Parent Visa Category, through which migrants were able to bring their parents into New Zealand.  Since then over 5,700 people have been in immigration limbo, stuck on the visa wait list. Labour is now bringing back the scheme.  Well, sort ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Speak Up for Women press statement: on Massey University and Feminism 2020
    The following was released yesterday (Tues, October 8) by the women’s liberation organisation Speak Up for Women. On 23 September Speak Up For Women announced that we would be holding an event at the Massey University Theaterette in Wellington. The event is called Feminism 2020. The intention of the event ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Farmers support dirty rivers
    The government is currently consulting on plans to improve freshwater quality. So naturally, farmers oppose it:South Taranaki farmers are preparing to fight proposed national freshwater changes that some fear will bankrupt them. The Government's proposed National Environment Standard on Freshwater Management, released in September, rated the Waingongoro River as one ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • No-one cares about local government
    Yesterday was the last day for (reliably) posting your vote away in local body elections. Turnouts are mostly much lower than the equivalent time last year (Palmerston North is down 2.3%), and so naturally people are pushing their online-voting snake oil again. Because the online census worked so well, lets ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • The political ghosts of eugenics may matter more than the genetic
    This essay, on the political legacy of the eugenics movement, by Kenan Malik was originally published in the Observer on 6 October 2019, under the headline ‘The spirit of eugenics is still with us, as immigrants know to their cost’. Birth control. Intelligence tests. Town planning. Immigration controls. It’s striking how ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • “Surplus” again
    Another year, and the government has announced another enormous government "surplus". And just like last year, its nothing of the sort. When we have people homeless and sick and hungry, when we have schools and hospitals still falling down, when we have underpaid public servants and infrastucture unmaintained or unbuilt, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Inside the Downing Street bunker
    James Forsyth at The Spectator (I know, I know) has tapped one of his contacts inside Number Ten for an insight into the Johnson administration's thinking and strategy.It is fascinating, unsettling and quite, quite mad.  Some key points:Negotiations have stalled and the Johnson administration are keen to blame the EU: ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Taking Control Of The Nation’s Story.
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    2 weeks ago
  • Are GNUs extinct?
    Another round of tactical talks about forming a Government of National Unity have come to nothing with the Liberal Democrats still refusing countenance putting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street:Opposition talks on Monday made little headway over when to try and vote down Boris Johnson's government and who might succeed him as ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour chickens out again
    When the government was elected, it promised to lead the way on electric vehicles, and specifically to make the government vehicle fleet emissions-free where-practicable by 2025.They lied:There are 15,473 vehicles in the government fleet and only 78 are electric. When the coalition Government came into power in late 2017, the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Transgender extremism, violence at work against feminist meeting at British Labour Party conference
    by Nick Rogers The debate around the meaning of sex and gender made an appearance at this year’s British Labour Party conference in Brighton. Women’s Place UK – an organisation that questions the demand that biological males who self-identify as woman should have access to women’s spaces, to all-women shortlists, ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Rebelling in Wellington
    Yesterday I went down to Wellington to participate in the Extinction Rebellion protest. Its part of the latest global wave of XR actions, with actions happening all over the world. Some of those protests are massively disruptive: in Canada, XR is blocking major bridges, stopping people from getting to work. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago

  • Methane reducing cattle feed one step closer
    The Government today announced its support for a project that could substantially reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions from cattle. The announcement was made as part of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s and Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor’s visit to Nelson’s Cawthron Aquaculture Park. The Cawthron Institute will receive $100,000 from the Government’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Bill to refresh superannuation system passes first reading
    Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni has welcomed the first reading of the New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension Legislation Amendment Bill. “Every New Zealander has a stake in New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension,” says Carmel Sepuloni. “They are our most common form of social assistance – nearly 800,000 New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government announces next steps in fight against measles
    Babies in Auckland aged six months and over can receive a free vaccination and children will all have access to vaccines, Associate Minister of Health Julie Anne Genter announced today at Papatoetoe High School.   The move comes as part of Government efforts to step up the fight against measles. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Pacific Futures: Connections, Identity...
    ***Check against delivery*** Good morning. It is a pleasure to be here, and to have the honour of opening this important conference on behalf of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. Let us take the opportunity to acknowledge all the people who have helped make today possible, including our special ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Police trial new response to high risk events
    Police Minister Stuart Nash says the safety of frontline officers and members of the public will be the focus of a new trial of specialist Police response teams in three of our largest urban centres. Police have this morning released details of an initiative to be trialled in Counties Manukau, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New awards celebrate fisheries sustainability
    The Minister of Fisheries is calling for entries for a new public award to celebrate innovation in our seafood sector. “I have established the Seafood Sustainability Awards to recognise and celebrate those throughout industry, tangata whenua and communities who demonstrate outstanding dedication and innovation towards the sustainability of New Zealand’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • More progress for women and we can do more
    Minister for Women Julie Anne Genter welcomes leaders in the private sector taking action on closing their gender pay gaps to ensure a fairer workplace for all New Zealanders. Ms Genter today launched a new report, Addressing the gender pay gap and driving women’s representation in senior leadership, from the Champions for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Proposals to curb environmental damage help our coasts and the oceans
    Government Ministers today welcomed the release of a marine environment report highlighting the four key issues affecting our oceans, estuaries and coastlines.  The release underlines the importance of government proposals to combat climate pollution, ensure clean freshwater, protect biodiversity, make land use more sustainable, and reduce waste and plastic.    Environment ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • New mental health facility for Waikato
    The Government has approved funding for a new acute mental health facility for Waikato which will provide better care and support to people with mental health and addiction issues. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Health Minister Dr David Clark announced the $100 million project to replace the aging Henry Rongomau ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • 500 new te reo Māori champions in our classrooms
    The Government is making progress on its goal to integrate te reo Māori into education by 2025, with over 500 teachers and support staff already graduating from Te Ahu o te Reo Māori,  Associate Education Minister Kelvin Davis announced today. Kelvin Davis made the announcement at an awards ceremony in Waikanae today, for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Minister James Shaw welcomes 2018 Census first release
    Statistics Minister James Shaw has welcomed the first release of 2018 Census data. The first release of data today, 23 September, includes key data on population, regional growth, the number of homes and the size of different ethnic groups in New Zealand. Data from the 2018 Census will support the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Driving transparency, ethics and accountability in government use of algorithms
    Minister for Statistics James Shaw today announced a public consultation on a proposed algorithm charter for government agencies. The charter has been developed by the Government Chief Data Steward in response to growing calls for more transparency in government use of data. Computer algorithms – procedures or formulas for solving ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • New Zealand and the Netherlands working together on climate change
    Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor, Climate Change Minister James Shaw and visiting Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte co-hosted a business roundtable in Auckland this morning focused on working together to address climate change.  “The Netherlands is an important partner for New Zealand. We share a strong agricultural history. Sustainable agribusiness and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Protecting fairness for workers and businesses
    The Government is taking action to build an inclusive economy where more of us receive our fair share at work and businesses can compete on great products and services, not undercutting wages and conditions, Immigration and Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Iain Lees-Galloway says. Two consultations launched today seek feedback ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Indigenous Freshwater Fish Bill Passes
    The future for New Zealand’s threatened indigenous freshwater fish looks brighter with the passing of the Conservation (Indigenous Freshwater Fish) Amendment Bill in Parliament today said Minister of Conservation, Eugenie Sage. “Until now, our freshwater fish legislation has been 20 years out of date. We have lacked effective tools to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Kiwis to take part in world’s biggest earthquake drill
    At 1.30pm tomorrow, hundreds of thousands of Kiwis will join about 65 million people around the globe in ShakeOut, the world’s biggest earthquake drill. The annual drill is to remind people of the right action to take during an earthquake which is to Drop, Cover, Hold, and to practise their ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Rising wages and low inflation supporting Kiwis
    Kiwis are benefiting from higher wage growth and low inflation under the Coalition Government. Stats NZ data out today shows the rise in the cost of living remains low, as annual Consumers Price Index (CPI) inflation fell to 1.5% in September from 1.7% in June. “The low inflation comes as ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ economy strong amid global headwinds
    New Zealand’s economic strength and resilience has been recognised in a major update on the state of the global economy. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook released overnight shows a reduced global growth forecast over the next two years as issues like the US-China trade war and Brexit take hold. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Keeping New Zealanders safer with better counter-terrorism laws
    Justice Minister Andrew Little has today introduced a new Bill to prevent terrorism and support the de-radicalisation of New Zealanders returning from overseas. The Terrorism Suppression (Control Orders) Bill gives the New Zealand Police the ability to apply to the High Court to impose control orders on New Zealanders who ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Improved succession and dispute resolution core of Ture Whenua changes
    A Bill that proposes targeted changes to simplify the processes for Māori land owners when engaging with the Māori Land Court has had its First Reading today. “The approach taken by the Government is to ensure that the protection of Māori land remains a priority as we seek to improve ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Speech to CTU Biennial Conference
    Let me first thank all the new unionists and members in the room. There is nothing more important to improving people’s working lives than people making the decision to care, to get on board and help, to take up the reins and get involved. Congratulations to you. You bring the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Minister ensures continued Whenuapai flight operations
    Minister of Defence Ron Mark has signed a certificate exempting the activity of engine testing at Whenuapai Airbase from the Resource Management Act 1991. The Act gives the Minister of Defence the power to exempt activities for the purposes of national security.  The certificate will mean the recent Environment Court ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ joins Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson has announced New Zealand will join the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action while attending APEC meetings in Chile. The objective of the 39 member Coalition is to share information and promote action to tackle climate change. It was formed in April this year, in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Feedback Sought – Section 71 – Lyttelton Parking
    Feedback sought– Lyttelton commercial zone parking  The Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration, Poto Williams, is seeking feedback on a proposal to remove on-site car parking requirements for new developments in the Lyttelton commercial zone.  The proposal, by Christchurch City Council, asks that powers under section 71 of the Greater ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Feedback Sought – Section 71 – Hagley Oval
    Hon Minister Poto Williams Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration   MEDIA STATEMENT       Tuesday 15 October 2019 Feedback sought – Hagley Oval The Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration, Poto Williams, is seeking feedback on a proposal about Hagley Oval. The proposal was developed by Regenerate Christchurch ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • CTU speech – DPM
    Ladies and gentlemen, NZCTU President Richard Wagstaff, members of respective unions – thank you for the invitation to speak to you today. This might be preaching to the choir, but the importance of trade unions in New Zealand’s historical arch is difficult to understate. And it is my belief that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • Police Association Annual Conference
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