lurgee Ardern is younger than her opponent and the leader she replaced, and generally considered to be more energetic, optimistic and charismatic than them. I wouldn't disagree with any of that. What I do have a problem with is you patronisingly referring ...
Carolyn_nth Turei is; Ngāti Kahungunu ki Wairarapa, whereas Tirakatene is; Kai Tahu, which counts for a lot. Te Tai Tonga only includes Wellington in the north along with Te Wai Pounamu (and Rakiura) to make up the electorate numbers, but not the Wairarapa...
Hey - top story on the Guardian (International edition) website: Ardern took control of the party on 1 August with Labour at an all-time low in the polls and has almost single-handedly reignited its chances of forming the next government... Ardern and ...
Thanks swordfish (for this, and all your other valuable analyses). It's a bit embarrassing to have missed that for so long, but I'm glad I pushed submit rather delete on that comment. It is a good demonstration of how one's preconceptions can blind one to ...
It is good that Ardern is not relying too heavily on this poll. In fact, there was a statement she made on becoming Labour leader that impressed me (though I couldn't find a link on a quick google), something on the lines of; "votes belong to the voters, ...
lurgee A 37 year old woman with a nine years experience as an MP is not a; "sparkly young thing". But you are clearly a repulsive old toad.
swordfish What do the numbers in brackets mean and why aren't they present for the 2017 results? At first I thought it was increase from previous CB results, but that doesn't seem to fit. If this is the 23–27 August sample from the 2014 CB (I haven't ...
NewsFlash It is only on the last two Colmar Bruntons that the GP has dropped below 8% (near the 12-16 August period in which CB had them at 4.3%, UMR had them unchanged at 8% as of 11-16 August). The last Roy Morgan has them at 9% and Reid Research at 8.3%...
Hopefully the talk will be available to view in the future, it certainly deserved greater numbers than it got! It'd be interesting to hear from anyone in Christchurch who was there to get their impressions. I only watched half of it myself what with; ...
Turei on stage and sound is a lot better now. [edit] It is a weird experience watching the TVNZ debate and listening to Turei's words - gotta be better than whatever English/ Hoskings are spouting. There is a linear distortion to the stream that is a bit ...
All eyes are likely to be on the debate tonight, but if there is a long period of Hosking waffle or ads consider shifting the tab (or screen). This is what I'll be mainly watching this evening [edit: Minto just up to the mike now - sound quality is pretty ...
Fully agree with I/S's conclusion: Hopefully Carbon News has complained to the Ombudsman, and hopefully it'll be treated urgently and be released before the election. Meanwhile, you really have to ask whether we want a government so obsessed with secrecy ...
Cinny Thanks for linking these reminders about debate times, it is easy for people who don't watch television to forget about them. I found the camera movement hard to take and only saw part of it, so can't give a real overview - Bradbury has his ...
Weka The Green party vote shift does seem statistically significant, the others are not so convincing. The thing with margin of errors is that when comparing them you basically need a double margin difference to be confident of a real effect (barring flaws...
Margins of error are huge for smaller parties; +/-11.5% NZF & 8.7% GP, even LP has 7.1% & Nats 5.3%. MP & CP MoE are both over 20%! But at least they are preceded by; "The sub-sample for the... Party result is small and these figures are provided as an ...
The sound is better than that Nation minor party leaders debate, but the way the camera swerves about it pretty nauseating. Also, the disruptions (from Joyce in particular) are just not moderated at all that I've seen. But then, it isn't the most gripping ...
Pete He was a sort of; an ancient Greek philosopher/seer crossed with Rip vanWinkel (and at one time literally worshiped as a God). There is a famous paradox ascribed to him: Epimenides was a Cretan who made one immortal statement: "All Cretans are liars."...
Wayne You are posting to say that you are not posting. Are you overseas in Crete with Epimenides?
DiM They seem to be your kind of people, so maybe you should renew your party membership and see how that goes.
tracey The problem is that with such inveterate liars, one rarely has anything but unsubstantiated gossip to go off. I guess my question boils down to; what is so important to distract from, that National would risk burning their bridges with Peters? Some ...
In relation to Peters being warned ahead of time, about National; "trying to take him down", this (rather long) post by Rolinson on TDB is rather interesting: Late last week, highly placed Beltway contacts of mine hit me up to ask if I knew anything about ...
DM Well; vote for her at the next National party conference, then. Or do they still not believe in allowing ordinary members a democratic say in the party's leadership?
Bennett has learned a lot from Key's technique of spouting garbled nonsequiturs to avoid questions. It is not lying if it doesn't make any sense! "You're jumping, as Winston Peters is, to a really long bow; that our integrity and our role as ministers in ...
Yes Pete - this does seem an attempt at reconstructing the facade of neutrality. This particularly struck my eye: This is not a natural policy for them, like tax cuts or roading infrastructure or paying debt or creating jobs. Okay - I'll give him; "tax ...
tracey Been offline, so didn't see your comment till now. The comparison with Turei seemed apt to me - both; Māori, former lawyers, heads of political parties, during this election beset by "scandal" involving overpayments from MSD. There are other rumours...
If it's anything like the episode, Peters will come back to life with the relentlessness of a hydra's head grown anew. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HR7wQ9c_-6Q
That is a huge margin of error at 4.89%! Which in Te Tai Hauāuru puts Tamati between 47-57%, to Rurawhe's 34-44%, plus 11.5% (9-14 at half margin guesstimate) undecided. The party vote in that electorate is definitely in Labour's favour though, so this ...
Yes.
Dirk Meatgently How would that even happen? Labour are not (yet) the government and haven't been demonstrated to have the information before it was publicly available. Also, why is the Goebbles (translated) quote attributed to Peters? I can't find any ...
The winebox inquiry as a starting point, I can't recall a similar high profile case in Turei's career (though tbf she operated as a commercial lawyer, so the lack of headlines is more of a mark of success in that field). But just his general adversarial ...
Much as I like Turei personally, Peters is a much more formidable lawyer. The circumstances aren't exactly equivalent, but if they had been; Peters would not have conceded for the good of his party, instead found someone else to blame. I'm not a National ...
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