All the deaths were in people over 70, likely with serious pre-existing conditions given what we know from other in depth studies from China and Italy of this cohort. Only about 3,000 of the 3700 people were tested, so you can add at least a couple hundred...
While I admire your optimism I don't think it's realistic to expect benefits to rise when tax receipts are likely to crash over $10B. Everyone is going to have to get by with less than they had pre-crisis, as you've indicated hurting those below the ...
I think using the term "at any price" is fair as intended consequences aren't being considered in the strategy we are currently taking, and the strategies are based on wildly inaccurate base assumptions, the research to which I have pointed out a number of...
It has has decreased, but it is within normal variance, what I'm saying is that the virus is only causing excess mortality in 12% of cases and that isn't yet able to overcome the normal year to year variance currently. It doesn't mean it won't eventually ...
Fair enough you got me there, I've never been interested in immigration our it's effects on our demographics so I didn't consider it. Not sure where I thought I remembered the 60K p.a. deaths from.
Most modelling says it will double fatalities, but this really depends on the IFR. If the IFR ends up being 0.05% which is well within the realm of possibility this will have been another massive overestimate.
If I remember correctly life expectancy goes up about a year per decade or so, which wouldn't have much of an effect. I admit I don't care about immigration and had no idea of the inflow but that could definitely explain it.
No, it means the virus is killing people who in many cases would have died in other parts of the hospital. If someone has bowel cancer and is on chemotherapy for 6 months which compromises their immune system, if they then catch a cold or flu and die in ...
I'm missing something here, 4,800,000 / 33,000 = 145 years. Is there some demographic shift I'm not aware of? Are the stats not including certain deaths? 60,000 would seem to be more likely.
That will teach me to rely on my memory, I should have checked that first, but it doesn't really change my point.
Hi McFlock, If you reread my comments you can see I have consistently talked about the IFR, the only comments I've made on the CFR is to point out it currently so inaccurate as to be irrelevant when others have brought it up. I've referred to the Spanish ...
Over time the case fatality rate and the estimated infection fatality rate become the same. The case fatality rate trends down, usually massively, as more testing is done and then the infection fatality rate becomes factual as serological testing for ...
Case fatality rate is irrelevant, infection fatality rate is what matters, it's upper bound is currently 0.3%. The Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at Oxford University has summarised the data points well, their upper bound is a bit lower than 0.3%, and ...
It's better but still out by at least 300%, in total deaths and probably orders of magnitude out for deaths directly attributable to the virus. I think what you are focussing isn't correct, you are focussing on what you think will reduce death from the ...
Regular flu has an IFR of 0.1%. Spanish Flu was 25 to 50 times that.
Yes, I have. The maths is fine, the computer does the heavy lifting but the problem is the input data they are using is outdated and incorrect. Garbage in, garbage out. In the worst case scenario of completely unmitigated spread, it is 5M x .62 till we ...
No it's not. The Spanish flu had an infection fatality rate of 2.5% to 5%. This virus has an upper bound of 0.3% and probably much lower given the few situations where population level testing has done and new data on how many are dying with disease, not ...
Yes, you're right I should have been more clear. I was meaning that we seem intent on keeping it dead. The current plan seems to be to try and eradicate the virus from NZ and then keep the borders closed until an effective treatment or vaccine comes along....
A figure of 80,000 is almost twice the per capita fatality rate of the Spanish flu. Even with a much wider percentage of the population infected it is simply implausible, all the data from mass testing of controlled populations that have been infected ...
The researchers at Te Punaha Matatini should all be fired forthwith. There is no a snowball's chance in hell that over 80,000 NZers would die, even in the most uncontrolled, rapid spread of infection, with unchanged behaviour at the individual level with ...
We might have moved on from the thinking but that doesn't necessary we have moved on from the reality. We're currently running a global fiat currency experiment, and the result of literally thousands of previous such experiments over two thousands years ...
That's not how it works. When there is a currency crisis the price of gold accounts for all the outstanding currency. In a hyper inflation gold approaches an infinite value relative to currency as the currency value tends toward zero. It's one of the ...
Wow, that's 2.40 of my life I won't get back. It's completely ass backwards. Consumption, whether via Government largesse on not, does little for economic growth. Over time, productivity increases are all that really matter for growth (apart from simply ...
"Actions, not words, are what counts, ie one murder victim weighs more than infinity words. This fuckwit’s actions say that he’s a right-wing extremist – whatever he wrote in a manifesto counts for shit (other than the incitements to violence, which is ...
I've briefly read the manifesto and you can call this guy a white supremacist or a neo-nazi but the only way you can call him right wing is if you somehow make the illogical jump that supporting limited government and individual rights makes one a neo-nazi...
I worked for the Police for a while. I don't share your faith in them.
"I see the tactic from the anti gun control advacates is to try and delay until the sensible majority forget about it." I presume that is directed at me? I'm not an anti-gun control advocate. Never had a firearms licence, in fact I can only remember ...
That argument could be made to make everything illegal and then only legalise things that have a "legitimate need". Doesn't sound like a country I'd like to live in. You didn't perhaps get that degree from the University of Waikato did you?
Thank you for taking the time to write out that in depth response. We are making a fundamental change to what many consider one of our most important rights/privileges and I'll never be able to get on board with the idea that is should be done is a rushed ...
You underestimate me methinks, I've been interested in politics since I was a teen and have studied the history of politics back to how our tribal ancestors governed before the dawn of agriculture. You seem to be intimating that you are old and grey and ...
Your argument above is an argument against seeming corruption, not against NZers having their input into a select committee process. It's an argument against having any select committee process, or a call for total reform of how our government works. A ...
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