Written By:
mickysavage - Date published:
2:01 pm, August 1st, 2018 - 59 comments
Categories: Economy, employment, Politics, Simon Bridges, spin, the praiseworthy and the pitiful, you couldn't make this shit up -
Tags:
From the you have to be freaking kidding file.
Simon Bridges office just sent out this tweet:
Its started. Unemployment is up. Is anyone seriously going to debate that this isn't because of the Ardern Peters Govt's policies? Its time they acknowledge their responsibility and make serious changes for NZers' sake.
— Simon Bridges (@simonjbridges) July 31, 2018
The actual background does not seem to be that dire. From Statistics NZ:
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.5 percent in the June 2018 quarter, up from 4.4 percent last quarter, Stats NZ said today.
“The slight rise in the unemployment rate follows five consecutive falls, from 5.3 percent in the December 2016 quarter to last quarter’s 4.4 percent,” labour market and household statistics senior manager Jason Attewell said. “It remains close to the nine-year low seen last quarter.”
And the employment rate stayed where it was at historically high levels.
In the June 2018 quarter, the employment rate was 67.7 percent. This has remained unchanged for three consecutive quarters, and is the second-highest employment rate since the series began in 1986. The highest was in the September 2017 quarter, when it was 67.8 percent.
The employment rate for men was 72.8 percent. The employment rate for women was 62.8 percent, the highest ever for women.
The employment rate for Māori was 64.6 percent (unadjusted), up from 60.3 percent last year. This was their highest employment rate on record.
Bottom lines, no change in percentage of people in employment, highest ever employment rates for women and Maori and a minuscule increase in the unemployment rate.
Simon Bridges really needs to learn to stop barking at every car that drives past.
The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.
And get someone to proof-read your tweets, Soimon.
+100
Guineapigs on wheels get more traction than this.
a 4 limbed amputeed guinea pig with 3 flat tyres would get more traction
Oooohhh, but this is sooo serious says Soimon, in Question 1 in the House this afternoon.
Peters was back in form and had good fun dealing to Simon.
https://www.parliament.nz/en/watch-parliament/ondemand?itemId=201756
Yes Veutopiper. Simon is like one of those who go back over and over buying the same Lotto tickets hoping that one day he just might strike Gold. About the same odds I think.
I agree. Plus I like your presumably unintentional misspelling of my pseudonym – Veutopiper. I have been thinking about why my original pseudo morphed into veutoviper which I quite like, but think it is time to morph from there (no disrespect to CV or why I and others changed at the time). Quite like the inference that the piper dictates the tune etc etc . LOL.
Oops. Sorry about the mis-spelling.
Didn’t National reduce unemployment by 0.5% by counting people looking for work on the internet as employed?
No.
Yes:
National didn’t do that. StatsNZ did. The current government still uses the same method.
But National proclaimed the sudden decrease in unemployment as down to their management.
Link please
See above.
Under National, the unemployment statistics were about as insightful as a roll of Purex 2-ply.
Same stats, different government. Wensleydale can’t think for himself. Must be told what’s good and bad.
Well done labour though. Amazing that business confidence is so bad yet they aren’t laying off staff? It’s almost as if demand is still strong
“Amazing that business confidence is so bad yet they aren’t laying off staff?”.
Not at all. Laying off existing staff, like hiring new people, are both lagging indicators. In most organisations they are only done when the firm is convinced that the change is a permanent thing.
It costs a lot of money to either hire, or fire, an employee.
The first thing that happens in most businesses is that they work more hours when demand is picking up. When demand drops they cut hours before cutting staff. Only when they are convinced that any alteration in demand is permanent will they change the number of staff they employ.
thats assumes a permanent workforce….something increasingly diminished
So your saying this could be a leading indicator, pre-business confidence slump, of further unemployment? Interesting
Are you aware that the Government of the day does not set how measurements of things like the unemployment rate are undertaken? This is done by Government departments (usually Stats NZ). The way it has been done has not altered since the new Government took office last year.
Under the previous government, Winz policy was that internet job search did not meet the requirements of being actively looking for work. This allowed unemployed people to be bumped off benefits without them actually having work. Naturally this appeared in unemployment figures as a false positive, which was the intent.
When DoD this policy change back then?
Perhaps you should explain what the fuck DoD have to do with it.
I rely on Purex 2ply to sustain their quality and evenness. I rely on National to do the opposite.
I like like it Grey Brilliant
Minimal movement in already dodgy numbers means diddly squat. (unemployment)Predictable movement in the delusional beliefs of self-important goons means less (business confidence)
Not much to take from this increase however if the trend continues…
An increase is an increase. In contrast unemployment had fallen in the 5 previous quarters.
So obviously the opposition is going to point this out. It dovetails with the business confidence surveys.
It could be the start of a general reduction in the economy.
Given that just about everything that this govt does increase costs in the economy, I am not surprised this has happened. If there is an increase next quarter, then you will have a trend, a bad one.
Standardnista’s might have to get used to continuing bad news in the economy.
Bit sad that the right will be hoping and preying that this manufactured gloom and doom causes people to lose their jobs.
Micky
Are you suggesting the opposition ignores this?
It is National’s strongly held view that the combination of coalition govt policy initiatives has caused this reduction. National’s microeconomic policies are different to Labours.
In my view we are, over the next 12 months, about to see which parties economic package is better for the economy and jobs.
I am not saying the two major parties have radically different approaches to economic policy, as is the case in some countries, but they are different enough to produce different outcomes.
“In my view we are, over the next 12 months, about to see which parties economic package is better for the economy and jobs”
Based on GDP and employment statistics on record for successive govts since WWII the result will no doubt be this Labour led coalition.
National and its petulant blinded with pure ideological spite 1000 out of 500,000 business will of course keep talking the economy down at every opportunity.
“National and its petulant blinded with pure ideological spite 1000 out of 500,000 business will of course keep talking the economy down at every opportunity.”
yep basically the gnats and their sycophants want kiwis to suffer so they can look good.
Who cares about terrible pay, bad work conditions and different wages for Māori. Not national.
Good job bringing up the Māori Nurses wages by the way marty mars. You should write a post, it would be very helpful.
Wayne it is a slight increase after 5 consecutive falls. Therefore the trend has been downwards.
Until there is a significant and sustained increase it is insignificant. Poor judgement of Simon to chase this one, until there is better evidence of it being a trend. To the general public this will mean nothing.
“I am not saying the two major parties have radically different approaches to economic policy, as is the case in some countries, but they are different enough to produce different outcomes.”
Indeed they can…which party do you think is likely to resort to austerity and which fiscal stimulus?
Should NZ fall into recession the drivers are almost certainly to be external and no administration will prevent it ..but the response is important indeed , especially to those who always bear the brunt.
“we are, over the next 12 months, about to see which parties economic package is better for the economy and jobs”
Or we are about to see how the world economy affects us, same as it would no matter who was the govt.
Sigh. You’ve been around long enough Wayne to know that seasonal work peaks in New Zealand in March and April and drops off through May/June and July resulting in the unemployment rate going up from the March quarter to the June quarter.
In 2017 the last quarter of the National government the March to June increase was 0.4% (adjusted in the latest release from 0.5%) the 2018 increase is 0.3%. This suggests the economy is doing better not worse.
“Given that just about everything that this govt does increase costs”
That’s not a given though.
You’re one of the buffoons who brought us mycoplasma bovis, mass immigration rorts and “nobody owns it” water giveaways. Most New Zealanders shit more cost effective governments than the one you were part of. Labour will have to be very bad indeed to do a worse job than you.
You’re just chasing cars – boosting bad news in the desperate hope that the normal variation in global economic events can be panel beaten into something plausibly negative. There’s an even chance of bad news – which is certainly better than the chances of your failed policies gaining traction.
“It could be the start…”; “If there is an increase…”; “Standardnista’s [sic] might have to…”.
‘Standardnista Wayne’ may be jumping the gun, but he is slightly less dishonest than Soiman, at least in his choice of words.
Can’t get the image out of my head of a puppy called Simon, barking and chasing his own tail!
and crapping on the axminster.
Had a meeting with a large exporter today.
Last 6 weeks have been quiet as. As it has been for myself as well. The heat has really come off.
Expect more of this.
Just to counter that, I run a small business and every year for the last eight years June and July have been my quietest months. This year June was considerably up and July has been the busiest it has ever been. Not just the busiest July – the busiest month of all in the whole of the last eight years. August is already showing signs of beating even that. I’m happy.
Soimon will foind a way to blame Labour for international trade conditions
Are you people stupid. This post is the worst example of blind parochialism I’ve seen in a long time.
Unemployment is up, and the confidence of business (aka the people that employ) is way down.
If you’re not concerned that this is the direction that the labor market is heading, then you’re a f#@kwit who is out of touch with reality.
Sure, but you do realise that 70% of all business enterprises have zero employees, don’t you?
Yep, meaning that employees are clustered within a core group of 30% of businesses. I’m pleased that we got to the bottom of that quandary.
Yes, I’m also glad that you realise that your link between aggregate business confidence and (un)employment is spurious and more of an
urbanrural myth AKA ‘commom sense’.Here’s some light reading for you: https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/economy-paradox-jobs-hopes-highest-auckland-where-business-most-pessimistic-ng-216745
Thus speaks a pathetic dupe – ready to fall in behind Bridges as blindly as he followed Key.
The coalition is a much better government than anything Bridges has to offer. He knows less than nothing about economics, and will promise anything to secure power – even marijuana.
But I’m sure the loss of illegal low-wage migrants concerns a certain lazy demographic.
Rural Guy
You ought to stop listening to your favourite mouthpiece on some radio or tv station. Try reading the interesting information on your breakfast cereal box — it would have more facts and you might learn about whether you are having too much sugar or salt – good for your health and brain.
Then don’t come storming on here with your lack of superior knowledge and abuse #%@& etc.
We have been thinking on these matters for a long time and then looking at what we think we know and critiquing it, and trying to understand what is happening. You could button up, listen and watch some other areas of news and be able to judge eventually the biases and casual lies, as we have learned to do. Whereas you……………….?
I love how you made my point for me about posters having no grounding in reality.
I’ll paraphrase your comment – “I’m very smart and very important and I’ve come to the conclusion that rising unemployment are business confidence dropping is of no importance”
The faux intelligence on display is pitiful really.
MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
an excerpt from the Daily Blog……….As Business tell us they have no confidence the NZ stock market hit 9000 at the beginning of the month…Who knew our mighty Titans of Commerce were the real snowflakes and all it took was fair wages, decent working conditions and a woman in charge to destroy their fortitude!
Then why hasn’t good stock index numbers resulted in a strengthening job market. The economy is slowing and it’s having real impacts. Stop being parochial and actually question instead of playing sheep.
perhaps less questions and more understanding and comprehension on what ACTUALLY is going on…..its not being parochial at all.
Yeah, do rural guys know taht the financial market owns nz like a bitch, its just ya cant do shit or youre fish fertiliser? Or are they on a diferent page ha.
Stock is bought and held steady up by QE which is a direct rise on capital prices, which the middle class will struggle to win. You, but not me, must sell off land and gain on this.
OF course it is a concern, but unemployment is built in to the low wages economy that National has deliberately constructed over 9 years
For a rural guy you don’t appear to understand that seasonal horticultural work has ended – and in urban areas which you may not be familiar with seasonal summer work for young people e.g. working in cafes drops off in winter as well.
In 2017 the last quarter of the National government the March to June increase was 0.4% (adjusted in the latest release from 0.5%) the 2018 increase is 0.3%. This suggests the economy is doing better not worse.
New leader same shit
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2018/08/01/political-caption-competition-720/#comment-434848