Summer’s arrival thanks to me – Key
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6:46 pm, December 7th, 2009 - 11 comments
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John Key is still claiming credit for the drop in the number of people on the unemployment benefit that occurs every October and November due to seasonal jobs that disappear after Christmas.
In his press conference today Key said that the number of people on the dole had fallen to 58,500, a 300-odd drop and the ninth weekly drop in a row.
Key even went to the lengths of pointing out that Treasury’s downside forecast for this point was 85,000 on the dole. This, he claimed, meant the government had done as excellent job of containing unemployment. Fortunately, one of the journos was sharp enough to ask him what Treasury’s upside prediction had been. Key looked a little startled and rumaged through his papers. He wouldn’t provide the upside number, but was forced to concede the Treasury’s main forecast was for 66,000, not too far out from reality.
A sixth form stats student could have told you there was likely to be a drop in unemployment these last couple of months. It happens every year (when the journos asked Key about seasonal effect he mumbled something incoherent). In fact, this is a smaller than usual seasonal fall – just 2.6% from end of September to end of November, when the average drop for the same period over the previous 9 years was 5.2%.
Crediting a government for a seasonal effect is silly. Next, National be taking credit for lower spot power prices when it rains and fills the hydro lakes.
11 comments on “Summer’s arrival thanks to me – Key ”
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Kua hinga te manawa kairākau o Te Rua Tekau Ma Waru Tiwhatiwha te po! Kakarauru i te po! Ka rapuhia kei hea koe kua riro! Haere e te Ika a Whiro ki o tini hoa kua ngaro atu ki te Pō ...2 weeks ago
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Ka nui te mihi kia koutou. Ka mihi ki te mana whenua ko Ngāti Whātua Ōrākei. Kia ora and good morning everyone. Thank you Fran and Simon for inviting me here today, and importantly your leadership of this forum over several years now. I want to acknowledge David Gehrenbeck, Deputy ...12 hours ago
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Tēnā koutou katoa – it is a pleasure to be here today. I would like to begin by acknowledging the important leadership role you all play in ensuring a quality health system New Zealanders can trust. There is enormous clinical expertise in this room covering a wide range of disciplines. ...3 days ago
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Ok, so if this stat was predictable, can you think of any other stats that have seasonal variation that the government will try to claim as positively influenced by their policies?
The xmas retail upturn.
I’m wondering if they’ll claim the increase in domestic violence over this period as well….
or the accompanying cluster of homicides that usually comes in summer
or the holiday road toll
I note the Muppet that is our PM is alsop claiming after 2 months that he has beaten the P epidemic.
Phew, glad that’s over and done with. Off for a holiday now I suppose.
increased horniness due to decreased skirt lenghts?
I shudder to think of Key claiming for that one.
He would do it, if he thought it would keep him high in the polls.