Posts Tagged ‘colmar brunton’

The trouble with political polls

Written By: - Date published: 6:31 pm, March 30th, 2014 - 189 comments

Two new polls are out suggesting National’s support is in the range of 46%.  Given that its support is historically over reported this is potentially cause for concern …

On polls and things

Written By: - Date published: 9:16 am, February 25th, 2014 - 106 comments

The periodic agony and ecstasy attached to opinion poll results has kicked in with a pessimistic TVOne poll result being released on the weekend. But how accurate are they and are we in danger of damaging an election campaign by focussing too much on them?

Polls and rogues

Written By: - Date published: 6:13 pm, April 21st, 2013 - 99 comments

Two polls tonight with very different numbers. They can’t both be right – so which one?

Main parties down minor parties up

Written By: - Date published: 7:07 am, November 18th, 2011 - 26 comments

The two TV polls last night had both major parties down, and The Greens on the rise to 13%.  The Herald poll has NZF on 4.9%.  I would expect the Nats to fall as the bungled and aggressive handling of the teapot tape fiasco has time to impact the polls.  It’s going to be an interesting week.

Good news bad news polls

Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, November 11th, 2011 - 44 comments

Labour is down in two recent polls (albeit margin of error), but over all the news is good!

TVNZ and Herald polls

Written By: - Date published: 8:35 am, November 4th, 2011 - 53 comments

Two polls out yesterday show no significant changes, with National well in front.   Don’t panic!  The campaign has only just started. Events always take a while to show up in the polls.  The Left needs to see movement soon – time’s running out fast – but it isn’t a surprise not to see it yet.

Labour up in Colmar Brunton

Written By: - Date published: 6:42 pm, August 21st, 2011 - 57 comments

Good to see Labour up 3% in the latest TV1 / Colmar Brunton poll.

Trends good for Left, much work to do

Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, February 21st, 2011 - 80 comments

It can be depressing to see a week of the government on the ropes and then polls showing National with an apparently commanding lead. But lets go beyond the shallow analysis offered by the talking heads and look at the trends. The Left has more than halved the Right’s lead since its peak. The question is: can the Left close the remaining gap in time?

Rightwing policies hit Nats in latest poll

Written By: - Date published: 8:57 pm, May 30th, 2010 - 78 comments

Another bad poll for National. Support for the Tories in the latest Colmar Brunton poll has dropped from 54% to 49%. The gap between Right (National and ACT) and Left (Labour and Greens) has fallen from 20% last September to 11%. And keep an eye on New Zealand First. It looks like, for all the gushing reporting, the public hasn’t been taken in by the tax swindle.

Polling companies confirm reputations

Written By: - Date published: 12:02 pm, June 3rd, 2008 - 61 comments

Another pair of TV polls, another embarrassment for Colmar Brunton as their poll goes widely out of line with the others even as TNS/TV3 is confirming the established trend. Still, neither of the polls looks great for the Left. National would govern alone under either result. That said, given the trend of 35% for Labour, […]

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