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notices and features - Date published:
8:29 am, December 13th, 2016 - 72 comments
Categories: bill english, national, paula bennett -
Tags: B Team
Bill and Paula go out to greet the adoring fans. pic.twitter.com/EhlNEteBRf
— Claire Trevett (@CTrevettNZH) December 11, 2016
The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about peopleâs relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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Love it.
Bill must have spotted someone standing near a window at Environment House.
A few journo hacks who have not been terminated yet, cheerleading, and nobody else…. seems an accurate portrayal.
English: “Yoohoo! Winston.”
Lmao great pic, a handful of media the only fans the B team could muster.
Hey there “B” team let me introduce you to Alpha Andy, leader of the “A” Team.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/content/dam/images/news/2016/09/06/it-slightly-overstates-some-features-the-pecs-and-the-biceps-ar.hashed.084440fb.desktop.story.inline.jpg
The “B Team” is a great moniker for them in virtually every sense. đ
I think the next poll is going to be very disappointing for Claire and many here when reality hits that their kDS was very real and that it’s not really about jk but people just don’t rate the left and by default themselves on so many levels
Time will tell, but one thing I do know.. some gave me a hard time for daring to call Key the outgoing PM a few months back, and look how that’s turned out.
Presumably your comment was made in the context that you thought Key would be the outgoing PM with an outgoing Government in 2017. I think that’s a pretty big prediction at this stage.
What sort of odds are you offering? I reckon I’d be keen to take a bit of that action.
Presumptions are all yours Sam, all yours.
I’m not a betting girl, money is not my priority, I’ll leaving the gambling to the suckers.
Predictions however, now that’s an interesting topic. Why do some get predictions wrong and others get it right? Why do some rely on certain predictors more than others? Is it how they gather their information?
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2016/12/media-post-truth-era-161210125419198.html
A good start is to remove ones own feelings from the situation in order to properly analyse all aspects. But that’s a whole other story.
What I do know is the con does not work with out the confidence, Johns gone as PM and soon will be as an MP (representative of the people), watch this space…
Come on Cinny, put your money where your mouth is… Just a little flutter – you never know, you might enjoy it!
Nah, there are other things I enjoy more than gambling, wise enough to know what I like and brave enough to do it.
A dare, now that’s more of a rush than some cash in the hand. How daring are you?
“I reckon Iâd be keen to take a bit of that action”
easy money my son , easy money….
love how KDS = “any comment that about key that i dont like”
sad cult members you lot.
I think the next poll is going to be very disappointing
Given that Key’s popularity (as measured by the preferred PM ratings) is LOWER than National’s party-vote polling, I’d be surprised to see national’s party vote fall far in the next set of polls.
If there were serious rumblings about Key’s departure and civil war within the Nat ranks, then maybe we’d see a big drop. But, without that, I can’t see much poll movement coming.
Better to look over the mid-term for a fall. That’s when ‘swing-voters’ will begin to fully register the contrast in style between Key and English in all its glory. (although it’s hard to anticipate the degree of any fallout).
I mean, yeah It’s true that “Keyâs popularity (as measured by the preferred PM ratings) is LOWER than Nationalâs party-vote polling”,
BUT …
(1) Some analysts have over-emphasised the gap, in the process leading readers astray. Pays to remember that the Preferred PM ratings include the always large number of Don’t Knows, whereas the Party Support ratings don’t. That means that – while the Nats do indeed rate higher than Key – the gap is nowhere near the 10, 12, 14 percentage points that you’d have to assume (as some pundits/journalists do) if you took the polls at face value.
(2) These things are not necessarily mutually exclusive. It’s quite possible for Key to:
(a) suffer somewhat lower ratings than National (and slowly diminishing ratings at that) and yet still, at the same time,
(b) be single-handedly responsible for locking-in a portion of âswing-votersâ for National.
Maybe. We’ll definitely see in the new year what polling indicates, anyway.
Preferred PM is basically a useless metric so I wouldn’t put too much stock into whether Key’s popularity was lower than National’s share of the Party Vote. Unless it’s lower than half their share, that really doesn’t say very much due to the disparity of how the Party Vote question and PM question are handled. (basically, you can answer whatever you want to the preferred PM question, and it includes “Don’t Know” in the percentages, unlike the party vote. I expect several “John Key” answers to the next Preferred PM poll we get back, which is likely to be a Colmar Brunton one)
The other thing to keep in mind is that even if we do put stock in preferred PM polling, that Key can be less popular than National without actually being a drag on its Party Vote. Bill can also be more popular than National but still be a drag on its Party Vote, if the people he’s popular with are ones that won’t ever vote for him, and the people he doesn’t convince include any type of National voters. (for example, Green voters who don’t prefer Turei, Shaw, or Little, or NZF voters who don’t prefer Winston) During the height of Key’s popularity it’s likely that there were many soft Labour supporters who were answering polls that they liked him as a PM, which doesn’t actually help with the Party Vote if that support is soft because they may not vote, or because they’re flexible between left-wing parties.
The sad thing is, National’s B Team is more than a match for Labour’s A Team.
Kind of like the All Blacks B team playing Namibia.
On what evidence do you base your opinion Sam? Without the rugby references please, I switch off when people use rugby analogies with politics.
Where do I start?
Well, let’s start with rejuvenation. National’s approach is to have a seamless transition from one PM to another, while Labour’s is to treat Shearer so shabbily that he can’t even stomach hanging around until the next election and thus triggers an expensive by-election (hot on the heels of Goff’s abandonment of the ship).
Next, quality of personnel. Little, King, Robertson, Ardern for Labour. English, Bennett, Joyce, Coleman for National. How old is King again? 72?
And that’s just for kickoffs (rugby analogy intended).
“Well, letâs start with rejuvenation. ” – bill english?
Plenty of gas left in Bill’s tank. Annette? Not so much…
Really? He’s been in parliament for 26 years now. What exactly has he done for the country? Yeah, bugger all. He never had any gas to start with.
Funny how those who usually bemoan the lack of real world experience of labour or other parties are salivating at career bureaucrat Bill’s rise to the top job. Visiting a farm and getting income from a farm while working for taxpayers does not a farmer make. So come on Nats, how come this non real worlder is ok?
that would be “continuation” then surely?
Bill has already tried to be our PM so he is old news nothing new. He wasn’t wanted now he is having a second turn. He is talking about change why when they have done so much damage are they going to change tact to hold on to power of course. He hasn’t finished destroying our welfare safety net yet.
Clark had two goes before becoming PM. BE is talking about change in the same way JK was, because policy has to keep up with international changes that can profoundly impact a country and over which we have little or no control.
Wayne? Wayne is that you?
“seamless transition”
Even worse than boring rugby analogies is the stale, meaningless, crap language of business.
Yawn
Apologies AB – how would you have described the events of the past week then with regard to the change of Prime Minister?
Swapping a turd with a ribbon on it, for one without?
A gift from heaven
“current PM sticks it to the other factions in his party by doing a surprise exit”
cmon – be honest – we all know that all parties have factions
Orchestrated and full of the stench of self interest?
Seriously Sam? Ok then Smith, English, Joyce, Brownlee let’s take a photo of them next to Andy, Annette, Jacinda and Grant and see whom the public would prefer… I mean are you for reals? By crickey soooo funny, you forgot we live in an MMP system btw. There are more than 2 political parties in parliament, after all National has their coalition partners as well.
You refer to Annettes age as a barrier, I’d say Brownlees weight is a bigger barrier, the man is morbidly obese, does the tax payer foot the bill if he needs two seats on the airplane instead of one? Or the bill for the custom bullet proof vest that a minister of defence would wear when visiting such places as Syria. Wait a minute, Paulas weight appears to be on the rise, far out shame, health alert.
You say Labour treated Shearer shabbily, I say if that was really true he would have left a long long time ago.
All the best to the fabulous Mr Shearer, proud of you Sir.
We’ll see who the public prefer soon enough Cinny. I don’t think they’re shallow enough to be put off by Gerry’s morbid obesity.
Annette is a washed up has been, whereas Gerry is still delivering, week in, week out, in spite of your prejudices about his weight.
what about Gerrys bullying and breaking of the law Sam whats wrong with talking about his weight people use to run down Parekura for his size
stop being a sooky bubba
So, remind me, how exactly has Gerry broken the law?
Gerry is one of many who have breached the cabinet manuals’ requirement to behave personally and professionally to the “highest ethical standard”. Because Mr key chose not to enforce this provision, no action was taken. Sadly more evidence that the leadership of this country presides over a “if it’s legal it’s fine” mentality and it trickles down. of course they and their ilk expect people with far less power and wherewithall to behave to much higher standards and so hold those at the most vulnerable end of our system to much higher standards BUT they make their judgments law so as to enshrine the disdain and hypocrisy
they were shallow enough to vote for the Tories who have told lots of lies
National has a substantial portfolio of corporate cronies and a huge PR budget. Labour just has grassroots support and still faces a generally skeptical media. Poll numbers in the New Year will be very interesting
My advice is to ignore biased opinionators like Sam C – – as seen in the last couple of by-elections, their opinions are just farts in the wind.
A by-election is very different to a general election, Ropata.
If you haven’t figured that out yet, then Labour really is destined for the cross benches in perpetuity.
I wouldn’t mind Labour staying in opposition if the government was actually as good as you astroturfers claim. But the reality behind the PR mask is quite ugly.
Hope you are not a teacher Sam, the approach you take with put downs rather than information is obviously either a weakness of yours or a tactic.
Either way people generally don’t respond well to such behaviour, as this example clearly illustrates.
“Five months ago, I wrote that we were moving into a post-fact era, where political leaders had scant respect for the truth or for reasoned argument and debate. Now I think weâre there.” Sounds a bit like the B team to me. JS
https://www.odt.co.nz/lifestyle/magazine/time-counter-political-trend
Re the by election’s … need we mention Northland, again, a safe National seat that was won by a landslide by an opposition party. Yes by elections are different, but so is the PM now, the citizens of NZ did not elect English to be PM, and some Nat supporters are now feeling betrayed because of it. Build a bridge, open your eyes and ears, there is so much more to hear and see than the echo in a cave.
So it is ok for Ropata to say my opinion is akin to a fart in the wind, yet when I have a contrary view, it is considered a put down?
The only Nat supporters who are feeling let down are the types who post on Whaleoil and as I far as I can ascertain, they are margin of error stuff.
And no, I’m not a teacher.
“Kind of like the All Blacks B team playing Namibia.’
rrruuuuuuggggbbbbbbbyyyyyyyyy !!!!!!
sorry what were we talking bout ?
Sam C doesn’t see that as a put-down, which makes me wonder what else Sam C doesn’t see. My guess? The obvious.
Andrew Little has some hard questions for the B team
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/87475932/andrew-little-middle-new-zealand-needs-answers-from-english
Musica… đ The A Team
‘B” team?
Bill and Baula? Bill and Bennett? Bullshit and Bilious? Bastard and Bitch?
I see Paula has been ‘re-UMMaged’ Paula goes out to meet her fans in a gorgeous ensemble of blue on aqua (the wheel barrow carrying her – NO – better not go there. but leopard skun was nowhere in soight)
Meanwhile, Bull offered himself up to the NuZull lektrit in modest royal blue.
Soimun Brudjiss of course is the outstanding winner of the parade. Suitably modiss, not overstated (pocket knife firmly in his bek pokkit, but none-the-less able to feign that ‘ear of kinsern’ for those of his suppotas (going forward)
Not putchid is “Mr Fucks-it” – Steven Joyce who is wondering (out the back) where he now stands and who is busy running numbers. It won’t be long before we hear him tell us how much he likes Kethliks and women wearing leaopardskin toights
The reactions of the posters on here when the National “B Team” wins the next election will a sight to behold đ
Though kudos in trying to brand it as the B Team, I appreciate the effort
You genuinely believe National will win with English at the helm? I mean, Key was a pathological liar with a PhD in smarm, but he had charisma. English is so dull, if you stare at him for longer than 10 minutes at a time, you risk lapsing into a coma. The man’s a human soporific.
Yes Bill English comes across as dull and boring but heres why I know National will take a fourth election
We’re less than a year out from the next election and National are in the mid to high 40s, Labour are in the mid to low 20s and if we look at Winstons past actions we know he went with the single party that had the largest majority so that’s why he went with National the first time and Labour the second because they held the largest majorities
National will shed some support but I doubt it’ll go lower then 40%, the majority of people voting aren’t suddenly going to turn around and vote Labour simply because John Key has left unless the economy tanks which it doesn’t look like doing
Its about the economy, the majority of voters think NZ is going in the right direction and those same voters know Bill English had a big (biggest) part to play in that
The support that National will drop won’t automatically go to Labour, some will but remember some will also go to Winston and, possibly, Act
One of the reasons National is so high and Labour so low is, apart from John Key, that people still don’t think Labour can offer them anything different, anything new, Labours best performer is Annette King and shes pushing 70, Labour haven’t rejuvenated as much as National
That’s why I believe the next election will be won by National and it will be a National/NZFirst government with whoever Winston allows to join
I suspect you are right but not only for the reasons you give. I also think that will be a sad outcome. Just as i think the Labour Party as it is will be a sad outcome. we dont need more wishy-washy nothing politics and policies but that is what lies ahead as long as we all make our governments about popularity and being on the “winning” side no matter how much that side wants to screw up those who really need help.
We need courage but courage in politicians in nowadays sanitised by polling for popularity. There is a dearth of genuine information on issues. Although information is more available than ever before, its quality has substantially diminished and is controlled as much as it has been through PR, marketing, hot buttons etc.
What chance anyone can do the right thing when we all gravitate to the information that supports our established beliefs and views (me included).
We do not truly question ourselves like we question those who disagree with us.
We cling to our beliefs like flotation devices in stormy seas when the sea is actually calm and we can swim.
We are selfish and self interested and so susceptible to marketing/PR/branding etc but we think ourselves independent thinkers.
we are all a little bit right and a little bit wrong and a lot deluded by the types of information thrown at us.
Your crumpled face, teary eyes and down-turned corners of your mouth when Key slam-dunked you with his “I’m bailing” declaration must have been “a sight to behold”, Pucky!
Did you get a selfie you could share?
Yes I did and no I won’t share, it would only be mocked by bad, evil doers đ
You’re amongst friends here, Pucky – show us ya bereft-of-all-hope face and I’ll show you my hearing-the-GREAT-news selfie.
No, people here are mean and will say unkind things about Sir john Key and then I will be even more sad đ
True. And that would be awful!
He could have had four terms, whyyyy!
You were certain that he’d be there, in the Chief’s seat for that fourth term, Pucky and your failure to get that right was a major blow to you and your credibility. All those uber-confident declarations from you now seem ridiculous and while I sympathise with you in this, a period of great dismay and confusion for you, I’m no longer giving your predictions and declarations any credence at all, having seen how entirely wrong you were. Still, now you have Second-string Bill and I see you’ve hitched your star to his wagon and are pimping for him as hard as you did Slur John Key (like that? That’s mine. I plan to use it whenever you give your ex the title he doesn’t deserve) đ
I always took PR’s pro-Key certainty as pure trolling đ
And now we’ll have to put up with weeks of him big-noting Bill and re-applying Paula’s lippy.
*sighs paternalistically
Much harder row for him to hoe that one đ
You mean “he should have had 12 years – and maybe paroled for two years of the sentence he should have served for the damage he inflicted on the people of this Country.”
I’m waiting to see the new preferred pm polling and where Blinglish sits hopefully under Little and Winny. I’m keen to get out and get our Maori and PI voters to vote for change and get rid of the nasty gnats. I will for the first time be out there lobbying for a 2017 change of government in the Hutt valley and Wgtn areas with posters and armed with as much info as possible. If we really want a change we need to get out there and make it happen no good moaning on sites with dickheads that have their heads buried in the sand . The Hutt Valley people usually vote Labour but this cannot be taken for granted. Our Maori whanau and PI cousins have extremely bad statistics in the Hutt Valley and these have got worse under the Tories with all the cuts hurting.
“Iâm waiting to see the new preferred pm polling and where Blinglish sits hopefully under Little and Winny.”
I wouldn’t hold my breath if I were you
“If we really want a change we need to get out there and make it happen no good moaning on sites with dickheads that have their heads buried in the sand .”
We don’t want change or rather enough of us don’t want change however good luck to you in your endeavours
PR change is coming boring old Bill and bully Bennett.
I think we can all realise that polls don’t actually mean much anymore. Nobody predicted Brexit, few predicted Trump, so like climate change, everyone can think that it’s all under control, nothing to see here, and than bam – who knows – what the hell is going to happen next election.
Could be close, or could be far apart. Personally I think this time Labour and Greens will make it because they know it is not going to be easy, they are more hardworking and hopefully will not make the same mistakes as last time.
Plus Natz have outdone themselves this time with carnage and many voters will be out for blood. Double dipper is no smiling assassin of spin – he’s more a caretaker before Collins rolls him when he fumbles in the dark, and the new improved Bennett with all her ‘Golly Gosh” talk although entertaining in a reality TV sort of way – it’s pretty hard to imagine her eking out any deals for NZ in an international or any type of world stage as a PM.
In short the polls will reveal nothing of what will come next election. We are too far away.
Lol.! They couldn’t even rustle up a rent-a-crowd.
“Bill and Paula go out to greet the adoring fans”
Wow that’s arse licking to the max
Would you buy a used car from either of these goofs? Even a new car? Or let them lead a small island in the South Pacific? Anybody ever read *The Comedians* by Grahame Greene?
Unlikely to end well.