The Coming Oil Crisis
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9:21 am, January 13th, 2024 - 21 comments
Categories: Deep stuff, Economy, energy, International, israel, Palestine -
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An expanding Middle East war that puts the Red Sea and Suez tanker route at risk is a major risk to us because it could hit the global price of oil.
Since the attacks by the United States and United Kingdom on Houthi bases in the last days, oil prices have started to spike.
This runs counter to the 2023 price record. The Chief Market Strategist for B. Riley Wealth Mr Art Hogan explained the growing importance of OPEC as a stabilising influence. “OPEC+ has done an effective job in 2023 of coordinating lower output levels, in an environment of decelerating demand. Additionally Brazil looks set to join the alliance in January 2024.”
Brazil’s entry is likely to put downward pressure on oil price globally since it is not committing to match output with demand, and oil production in the US together with very soft economic growth in China will also be downward-price factors.
However it is pretty apparent that the United States effort towards containment of the Middle East conflict in Israel and beyond is failing. It is now much more likely that this is about to kick off, and with it oil prices are at upward risk.
We have very little protection against rising oil prices.
More than in other OECD countries, New Zealand’s use of transport fuel is weighted towards diesel and jet fuel, which play a minor role in private transport but a major role in tourism and agriculture which are our economic engines. Our economy is already weak and this is exactly what we don’t need.
We should definitely worry that an expanding war in the Middle East will affect oil prices. Analysts like Goldman Sachs have been flagging this increasing risk for a while now.
During the 1973 Arab states invasion of Israel, Arab members of OPEC imposed an embargo against the United States in retaliation for the U.S. decision to re-supply the Israeli military and to gain leverage in the post-war peace negotiations. It may be 40 years ago, but this current confluence we don’t need again. Then the Iran revolution occurred in 1979. As the previous Minister of Energy Sir Bill Birch stated, “In 1979, New Zealand suddenly lost half its oil supply. The Government could not stand idly by and do nothing.”
You can check out the full public sector response in John Boshier’s 2023 book Power Surge. This results from his recollections as an insider and his own extensive research. Read it if you want to understand the turning points in our energy story, and explore what motivated the key people.
The pressure on New Zealand at that time was so strong that it instigated a massive national programme towards greater energy self-reliance.
But then ideological radicalism and complacency set in. Deregulation of the oil industry in 1988 removed price controls, government involvement in refining, licensing of wholesalers and retailers, and restrictions on imports of refined products. With the dismantling of Marsden Point as a refinery we now fully rely on imports for all petroleum products from road tarmac to butane.
As the Ukraine war did, so the Middle East chaos should again remind us of our vulnerability.
Don’t worry we are a long way from carless days or another oil crisis.
Forty years later from the OPEC embargo, New Zealand doesn’t have an energy strategy. But the previous government did generate a terms of reference for one to be developed.
There are two bits of good news. The U.S. has such strong domestic supply that it can’t be successfully embargoed by OPEC as it was. Secondly the countries upon which we are most reliant – China, the United States and Australia – are not experiencing recession and are sending bounteous volumes of tourists our way. They can pay for the jet fuel.
The bad news is that the United States simply isn’t using its influence to calm the region down. Since 2015, in Yemen, Saudi Arabia has produced the world’s worst humanitarian crisis and caused 377,000 deaths according to U.N. estimates. That’s who the U.S. wants a big diplomatic deal with. And it is continuing to fail to use its influence over Israel to come to any diplomatic solution over its huge attacks on Gaza after the terrorist incursions in October 2023, and rewarding it with unlimited weapons.
This sustained failure with the two worst offenders in the Middle East is not likely to improve, whether Biden or Trump are running U.S. foreign policy.
This is going to get worse.
But New Zealand has zero effect on any of that. So it must prepare.
New Zealand is at high risk of oil price spikes that can cause massive economic damage.
Our government needs to commit to continuing the transformation away from oil dependence towards electricity and decarbonisation across the whole of New Zealand. It needs an energy strategy. It needs to accelerate electric car fleet replacement. It needs to shut down the Huntly coal power station. It needs to work to rid us of petroleum reliance which is our core addiction.
And it needs to act fast. As we all do.
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- Release: 4,500 jobs lost – and countingMore than 4,500 jobs are set to go as the National Government continues its deep cuts to services to pay for irresponsible and ill-timed tax cuts. ...1 week ago
- No-cause evictions leave no hope for rentersThe Government’s introduction of legislation that would enable landlords to end tenancies with no reason marks a dark day for the 1.4 million people who rent their home in Aotearoa. ...1 week ago
- Release: National winding back mental health workThe Minister for Mental Health has found the Suicide Prevention Office and mental health support for 111 calls slipping through his fingers, says Labour spokesperson for Mental Health Ingrid Leary. ...1 week ago
- Government ignorant of evidence in neglect of tamarikiToday’s justification from the Minister for Children for scrapping protections for our tamariki was either a case of ignorance or deliberate deception. ...1 week ago
- Gang policy setting communities up for failureThe Green Party says the Government’s misguided policy on gangs will fail, following the announcement of the establishment of a national gang unit and district gang disruption units to target gang activities. ...1 week ago
- Statement from police spokesperson Ginny Andersen“With Police pay negotiations still unresolved after six months in Government, Mark Mitchell has today rolled the Commissioner out for a rebrand of their approach to gang crime,” Labour police spokesperson Ginny Andersen said. ...1 week ago
- Charter schools not a serious solutionWe need serious investment and solutions into our education system, not a vanity project from David Seymour. ...1 week ago
- Release: Ideological charter schools won’t increase achievementThe Government bringing back 50 charter schools will not increase achievement and is a distraction from the core mission of the education system, Labour education spokesperson Jan Tinetti said. ...1 week ago
- Release: Visas needed for Palestinians with family in New ZealandThe Government must show some compassion and create a special visa to allow Palestinians with family in New Zealand to be reunited with them here. ...1 week ago
- Release: Govt’s stubbornness will harm Māori childrenGovernment has remained stubborn and is ramming its Bill into the House today, which the Waitangi Tribunal has said will hurt vulnerable children. ...2 weeks ago
- ‘Lucky dip’ process too casual for hearing critical submissions on Fast Track approvals billTe Pāti Māori is showing extreme concern over the Environment Select Committees adoption of a lucky dip draw to determine hearings for the Fast Track Approvals bill. Of the 27,000 submissions, 2,900 requested to present. All organisations will be heard; however, the remaining 2,350 submitters will be subject to a ...2 weeks ago
- New Zealand First Member’s Bill to protect women’s spacesToday New Zealand First will introduce a Member’s Bill that will protect women’s spaces. The ‘Fair Access to Bathrooms Bill’ will require, primarily in the interest and safety of women and girls, that all new non-domestic publicly accessible buildings provide separate, clearly demarcated, unisex and single sex bathrooms. This Bill ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Support for climate adaptation inquiryLabour supports a Notice of Motion in the House today to move the Finance and Expenditure Committee to conduct an inquiry on climate adaptation. ...2 weeks ago
- Greens welcome cross-party approach to climate adaptationThe Green Party is welcoming Climate Change Minister Simon Watts’ continuation of Hon. James Shaw’s cross-party work on climate adaptation, now in the form of a Finance and Expenditure Committee Inquiry. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Sexual violence prevention among hundreds of job cuts at ACCThe National Government plans to cut 390 jobs at ACC, including roles in the areas of prevention of sexual violence, road safety and workplace safety. ...2 weeks ago
- Government shows allergy to evidence in benefits crackdownThe Government has been caught in opposition to evidence once again as it looks to usher in tried, tested and failed work seminar obligations for job-seeking beneficiaries. ...2 weeks ago
- Minister of Finance reheats austerity politicsThis morning’s pre-Budget speech from the Minister of Finance offered no “meaningful” news on the Government’s trickle-down economics based plans. ...2 weeks ago
- A win for Wellington – Greens welcome more housingThe Green Party is welcoming the announcement by the Minister Responsible for RMA Reform Chris Bishop to approve most of the Wellington City Council’s District Plan recommendations. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Backtrack on school lunches a win for Kiwi kidsDavid Seymour has failed to get the sweeping cuts he wanted to the free and healthy school lunch programme, Labour education spokesperson Jan Tinetti said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Hon Willie Jackson to debate at the Prestigious Oxford UnionHon Willie Jackson has been invited by the Oxford Union to debate the motion “This House Believes British Museums are not Very British’ on May 23rd. ...2 weeks ago
- Middle East, Africa deployments extended
The Government has approved two-year extensions for four New Zealand Defence Force deployments to the Middle East and Africa, Defence Minister Judith Collins and Foreign Minister Winston Peters announced today. “These deployments are long-standing New Zealand commitments, which reflect our ongoing interest in promoting peace and stability, and making active ...1 hour ago - Climate Change Commission Chair to retireThe Climate Change Commission Chair, Dr Rod Carr, has confirmed his plans to retire at the end of his term later this year, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “Prior to the election, Dr Carr advised me he would be retiring when his term concluded. Dr Rod Carr has led ...3 hours ago
- Inaugural Board of Integrity Sport & Recreation Commission announcedNine highly respected experts have been appointed to the inaugural board of the new Integrity Sport and Recreation Commission, Sport & Recreation Minister Chris Bishop says. “The Integrity Sport and Recreation Commission is a new independent Crown entity which was established under the Integrity Sport and Recreation Act last year, ...5 hours ago
- A balanced Foreign Affairs budgetForeign Minister Winston Peters confirmed today that Vote Foreign Affairs in Budget 2024 will balance two crucial priorities of the Coalition Government. While Budget 2024 reflects the constrained fiscal environment, the Government also recognises the critical role MFAT plays in keeping New Zealanders safe and prosperous. “Consistent with ...8 hours ago
- New social housing places to support families into homesNew social housing funding in Budget 2024 will ensure the Government can continue supporting more families into warm, dry homes from July 2025, Housing Ministers Chris Bishop and Tama Potaka say. “Earlier this week I was proud to announce that Budget 2024 allocates $140 million to fund 1,500 new social ...9 hours ago
- New Zealand’s minerals futureIntroduction Today, we are sharing a red-letter occasion. A Blackball event on hallowed ground. Today we underscore the importance of our mineral estate. A reminder that our natural resource sector has much to offer. Such a contribution will not come to pass without investment. However, more than money is needed. ...23 hours ago
- Government sets out vision for minerals futureIncreasing national and regional prosperity, providing the minerals needed for new technology and the clean energy transition, and doubling the value of minerals exports are the bold aims of the Government’s vision for the minerals sector. Resources Minister Shane Jones today launched a draft strategy for the minerals sector in ...23 hours ago
- Government progresses Māori wards legislationThe coalition Government’s legislation to restore the rights of communities to determine whether to introduce Māori wards has passed its first reading in Parliament, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown says. “Divisive changes introduced by the previous government denied local communities the ability to determine whether to establish Māori wards.” The ...1 day ago
- First RMA amendment Bill introduced to ParliamentThe coalition Government has today introduced legislation to slash the tangle of red and green tape throttling some of New Zealand’s key sectors, including farming, mining and other primary industries. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop says the Government is committed to unlocking development and investment while ensuring the environment is ...1 day ago
- Government welcomes EPA decisionThe decision by Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) to approve the continued use of hydrogen cyanamide, known as Hi-Cane, has been welcomed by Environment Minister Penny Simmonds and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay. “The EPA decision introduces appropriate environmental safeguards which will allow kiwifruit and other growers to use Hi-Cane responsibly,” Ms ...1 day ago
- Speech to Employers and Manufacturers Association: Relief for today, hope for tomorrowKia ora, Ngā mihi nui ki a koutou kātoa Tāmaki Herenga Waka, Tāmaki Herenga tangata Ngā mihi ki ngā mana whenua o tēnei rohe Ngāti Whātua ō Ōrākei me nga iwi kātoa kua tae mai. Mauriora. Greetings everyone. Thank you to the EMA for hosting this event. Let me acknowledge ...1 day ago
- Government invests in 1,500 more social homesThe coalition Government is investing in social housing for New Zealanders who are most in need of a warm dry home, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. Budget 2024 will allocate $140 million in new funding for 1,500 new social housing places to be provided by Community Housing Providers (CHPs), not ...2 days ago
- $24 million boost for Gumboot FridayThousands more young New Zealanders will have better access to mental health services as the Government delivers on its commitment to fund the Gumboot Friday initiative, says Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters and Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey. “Budget 2024 will provide $24 million over four years to contract the ...2 days ago
- Residential Tenancies Amendment Bill passes first readingThe Coalition Government’s Residential Tenancies Amendment Bill, which will improve tenancy laws and help increase the supply of rental properties, has passed its first reading in Parliament says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “The Bill proposes much-needed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act 1986 that will remove barriers to increasing private ...3 days ago
- Montecassino Commemorative Address, Cassino War CemeteryStanding here in Cassino War Cemetery, among the graves looking up at the beautiful Abbey of Montecassino, it is hard to imagine the utter devastation left behind by the battles which ended here in May 1944. Hundreds of thousands of shells and bombs of every description left nothing but piled ...3 days ago
- First Reading – Repeal of Section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989I present a legislative statement on the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill Mr. Speaker, I move that the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill be now read a first time. I nominate the Social Services and Community Committee to consider the Bill. Thank you, Mr. ...3 days ago
- First reading of 7AA’s repeal: progress for childrenThe Bill to repeal Section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act has had its first reading in Parliament today. The Bill reaffirms the Coalition Government’s commitment to the care and safety of children in care, says Minister for Children Karen Chhour. “When I became the Minister for Children, I made ...3 days ago
- China Business Summit 2024Kia ora koutou, good morning, and zao shang hao. Thank you Fran for the opportunity to speak at the 2024 China Business Summit – it’s great to be here today. I’d also like to acknowledge: Simon Bridges - CEO of the Auckland Chamber of Commerce. His Excellency Ambassador - Wang ...3 days ago
- Assisted depatures from New CaledoniaForeign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed a New Zealand Government plane will head to New Caledonia in the next hour in the first in a series of proposed flights to begin bringing New Zealanders home. “New Zealanders in New Caledonia have faced a challenging few days - and bringing ...3 days ago
- Assisted departures from New CaledoniaForeign Minister Winston Peters has confirmed a New Zealand Government plane will head to New Caledonia in the next hour in the first in a series of proposed flights to begin bringing New Zealanders home. “New Zealanders in New Caledonia have faced a challenging few days - and bringing them ...3 days ago
- Government to rollout roadside drug testingThe Coalition Government will introduce legislation this year that will enable roadside drug testing as part of our commitment to improve road safety and restore law and order, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Alcohol and drugs are the number one contributing factor in fatal road crashes in New Zealand. In ...4 days ago
- Minister responds to review of Kāinga OraThe Government has announced a series of immediate actions in response to the independent review of Kāinga Ora – Homes and Communities, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “Kāinga Ora is a large and important Crown entity, with assets of $45 billion and over $2.5 billion of expenditure each year. It ...4 days ago
- Pseudoephedrine back on shelvesAssociate Health Minister David Seymour is pleased that Pseudoephedrine can now be purchased by the general public to protect them from winter illness, after the coalition government worked swiftly to change the law and oversaw a fast approval process by Medsafe. “Pharmacies are now putting the medicines back on their ...4 days ago
- New Zealand-China Business SummitTēnā koutou katoa. Da jia hao. Good morning everyone. Prime Minister Luxon, your excellency, a great friend of New Zealand and my friend Ambassador Wang, Mayor of what he tells me is the best city in New Zealand, Wayne Brown, the highly respected Fran O’Sullivan, Champion of the Auckland business ...4 days ago
- New measures to protect powerlines from treesEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has announced that the Government will make it easier for lines firms to take action to remove vegetation from obstructing local powerlines. The change will ensure greater security of electricity supply in local communities, particularly during severe weather events. “Trees or parts of trees falling on ...6 days ago
- Wairarapa Moana ki Pouakani win top Māori dairy farming awardWairarapa Moana ki Pouakani were the top winners at this year’s Ahuwhenua Trophy awards recognising the best in Māori dairy farming. Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka announced the winners and congratulated runners-up, Whakatōhea Māori Trust Board, at an awards celebration also attended by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Finance Minister ...6 days ago
- DJ Fred Again – Assurance report received"On the 27th of March, I sought assurances from the Chief Executive, Department of Internal Affairs, that the Department’s correct processes and policies had been followed in regards to a passport application which received media attention,” says Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden. “I raised my concerns after being ...1 week ago
- District Court Judges appointedAttorney-General Judith Collins has announced the appointment of three new District Court Judges, to replace Judges who have recently retired. Peter James Davey of Auckland has been appointed a District Court Judge with a jury jurisdiction to be based at Whangarei. Mr Davey initially started work as a law clerk/solicitor with ...1 week ago
- Unions should put learning ahead of ideologyAssociate Education Minister David Seymour is calling on the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) to put ideology to the side and focus on students’ learning, in reaction to the union holding paid teacher meetings across New Zealand about charter schools. “The PPTA is disrupting schools up and down the ...1 week ago
- Craig Stobo appointed as chair of FMACommerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly today announced the appointment of Craig Stobo as the new chair of the Financial Markets Authority (FMA). Mr Stobo takes over from Mark Todd, whose term expired at the end of April. Mr Stobo’s appointment is for a five-year term. “The FMA plays ...1 week ago
- Budget 2024 invests in lifeguards and coastguardSurf Life Saving New Zealand and Coastguard New Zealand will continue to be able to keep people safe in, on, and around the water following a funding boost of $63.644 million over four years, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Associate Transport Minister Matt Doocey say. “Heading to the beach for ...1 week ago
- New Zealand and Tuvalu reaffirm close relationshipNew Zealand and Tuvalu have reaffirmed their close relationship, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says. “New Zealand is committed to working with Tuvalu on a shared vision of resilience, prosperity and security, in close concert with Australia,” says Mr Peters, who last visited Tuvalu in 2019. “It is my pleasure ...1 week ago
- New Zealand calls for calm, constructive dialogue in New CaledoniaNew Zealand is gravely concerned about the situation in New Caledonia, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The escalating situation and violent protests in Nouméa are of serious concern across the Pacific Islands region,” Mr Peters says. “The immediate priority must be for all sides to take steps to de-escalate the ...1 week ago
- New Zealand welcomes Samoa Head of StatePrime Minister Christopher Luxon met today with Samoa’s O le Ao o le Malo, Afioga Tuimalealiifano Vaaletoa Sualauvi II, who is making a State Visit to New Zealand. “His Highness and I reflected on our two countries’ extensive community links, with Samoan–New Zealanders contributing to all areas of our national ...1 week ago
- Island Direct eligible for SuperGold Card fundingTransport Minister Simeon Brown has announced that he has approved Waiheke Island ferry operator Island Direct to be eligible for SuperGold Card funding, paving the way for a commercial agreement to bring the operator into the scheme. “Island Direct started operating in November 2023, offering an additional option for people ...1 week ago
- Further sanctions against RussiaForeign Minister Winston Peters today announced further sanctions on 28 individuals and 14 entities providing military and strategic support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “Russia is directly supported by its military-industrial complex in its illegal aggression against Ukraine, attacking its sovereignty and territorial integrity. New Zealand condemns all entities and ...1 week ago
- One year on from Loafers LodgeA year on from the tragedy at Loafers Lodge, the Government is working hard to improve building fire safety, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “I want to share my sincere condolences with the families and friends of the victims on the anniversary of the tragic fire at Loafers ...1 week ago
- Pre-Budget speech to Auckland Business ChamberKa nui te mihi kia koutou. Kia ora and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you so much for having me here in the lead up to my Government’s first Budget. Before I get started can I acknowledge: Simon Bridges – Auckland Business Chamber CEO. Steve Jurkovich – Kiwibank CEO. Kids born ...1 week ago
- New Zealand and Vanuatu to deepen collaborationNew Zealand and Vanuatu will enhance collaboration on issues of mutual interest, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “It is important to return to Port Vila this week with a broad, high-level political delegation which demonstrates our deep commitment to New Zealand’s relationship with Vanuatu,” Mr Peters says. “This ...1 week ago
- Penk travels to Peru for trade meetingsMinister for Land Information, Chris Penk will travel to Peru this week to represent New Zealand at a meeting of trade ministers from the Asia-Pacific region on behalf of Trade Minister Todd McClay. The annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Ministers Responsible for Trade meeting will be held on 17-18 May ...1 week ago
- Paul Henry To Address New Zealanders At ACT Rally
ACT's 2024 rally, Change Makers, will take place at Auckland's Viaduct Events Centre at 12:30pm on 9 June. ...2 hours ago - Regional Development and Resources Minister's mine visits not publicised
Shane Jones visited two mines on Thursday without revealing it until afterwards - then had a private lunch with mining industry representatives. ...2 hours ago - Iranian Solidarity Group New Zealand's Meeting With NZ Minister For Foreign Affairs Rt. Hon. Wi...The Iranian Solidarity Group NZ met with Minister For Foreign Affairs Rt. Hon. Winston Peters, urging the NZ government to designate the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (the IRGC) as a terrorist organisation. The group continues to advocate for justice ...2 hours ago
- 105 Silenced Journalists Of Gaza Honoured Outside Voyager Media AwardsOn 24th May, 6pm, Palestinian journalists covering Gaza will be honoured in a silent and visually impactful vigil outside Shed 10, 89 Quay Street, Auckland, where the Voyager Media Awards are being held. ...2 hours ago
- The Matildas and Socceroos are soaring, while participation is growing – but the A-League is missi...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Harcourt, Industry Professor and Chief Economist, University of Technology Sydney This should be a golden age for Australian soccer. After all, the big picture is good: the Matildas are waltzing, the Socceroos are well supported and Australia was just awarded hosting ...3 hours ago - The British election is Labour’s to lose. What would the UK–Australia relationship look like und...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ben Wellings, Associate Professor in Politics and International Relations, Monash University Assuming a Labour win in the UK general election – always a risky assumption given Labour’s proclivity for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory – the “Global Britain” bombast emanating ...3 hours ago
- A rush on critical minerals is coming for our most remote and disadvantaged communitiesSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deanna Kemp, Professor and Director, Centre for Social Responsibility in Mining, The University of Queensland King Ropes Access, Shutterstock The Australian mining industry was promised billions of dollars in last week’s federal budget to boost critical minerals such as lithium, copper ...3 hours ago
- Greens Justice Spokesperson Tamatha Paul To Join Protest Against Waikeria ‘Megaprison’ At Mount ...The community group People Against Prisons Aotearoa is holding a protest against mass incarceration tomorrow against the Government’s proposed expansion of Waikeria prison. ...3 hours ago
- Labour MP Willie Jackson becomes first Māori to take part in Oxford Union debateHe is the first MP since former prime minister David Lange to be asked to debate at Oxford. ...4 hours ago
- What OpenAI’s deal with News Corp means for journalism (and for you)Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By T.J. Thomson, Senior Lecturer in Visual Communication & Digital Media, RMIT University Shutterstock OpenAI, the makers of ChatGPT, and News Corp, the international media conglomerate, have signed a deal that will let OpenAI use and learn from News Corp’s content. In ...4 hours ago
- What is a virtual emergency department? And when should you ‘visit’ one?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jaimon Kelly, Senior Research Fellow in Telehealth delivered health services, The University of Queensland Shutterstock/Nils Versemann For many Australians the emergency department (ED) is the physical and emblematic front door to accessing urgent health-care services. But health-care services are evolving rapidly ...4 hours ago
- Married at First Sight NZ pops the question: can the relaunch put a winning Kiwi spin on the global ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca Trelease, Senior Lecturer in Communication Studies, Auckland University of Technology Getty Images Following the hugely successful recent season of Married At First Sight (MAFS) Australia, fans of the format – and the reality romance genre in general – will be ...4 hours ago
- All surface, no substance. Kids will probably love Beings at ACMI. Pity about the rest of usSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dominic Redfern, Associate Professor, School of Art, RMIT University We Are All Unique by Universal Everything commissioned by Hyundai Motorstudio Senayan Park in Beings at ACMI. Image by Michelle Tran At this week’s launch of Beings by Universal Everything, ACMI board member ...4 hours ago
- ‘People need to buckle up’: The experts reveal what to expect in MAFS NZ
As Married at First Sight New Zealand returns to our screens this Sunday, Tara Ward speaks to the show’s new relationship experts about what lies ahead. This is an excerpt from our weekly pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here. John Aiken is teasing Jo Robertson about her cup of ...4 hours ago - The Friday Poem: ‘The body’s score’ by Erin DonohueA new poem by Wellington writer Erin Donohue. The body’s score Here is what happens if you starve yourself for years. Your body will forget herself. She will have to learn new how a heart beats and she will not get it right. She will need MRIs and a quiet ...4 hours ago
- The Unity Books bestseller chart for the week ending May 24The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington. AUCKLAND 1 Before the Coffee Gets Cold by Toshikazu Kawaguchi (Picador, $25) A charming, smash-hit book about ...4 hours ago
- Select Committee aged care inquiry to begin by JulyThe coalition has confirmed the Health Select Committee will carry out an inquiry into aged care. ...5 hours ago
- Media fuss over stranded tourists, but Kanaks face existential struggleCOMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle “Only the struggle counts . . . death is nothing.” Éloi Machoro — “the Che Guevara of the Pacific” — said this shortly before he was gunned down by a French sniper on 12 January 1985. Machoro, one of the leaders of the newly-formed FLNKS (Kanak ...5 hours ago
- We analysed 30 years of Australian media articles – and unearthed some glaring gaps in the coverag...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexandra Wake, Associate Professor, Journalism, RMIT University Photo by Andrea Piacquadio/Pexels The news media play a vital role in shaping the public conversation and covering complex issues such as war, the economy, climate change and technology. Yet our new research ...5 hours ago
- How Narendra Modi’s cult of personality was formed by a powerful Hindu nationalist group with a da...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Aviroop Gupta, PhD Candidate, Curtin University Narendra Modi’s right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has resorted to religious polarisation as it tries to rally its Hindu nationalist base in India’s ongoing general election, which ends on June 1. Just days after voting started ...5 hours ago
- Kids or no kids, Don’t Lick That is ‘masterful’ mum comedy you need to seeLana Walters’ new show is playing in Auckland for the NZ International Comedy Festival. Madeleine Holden (a parent) and Liv Sisson (not) went along to review. I hadn’t heard of comedian Lana Walters until a colleague posted the following message in one of The Spinoff’s Slack channels: “Has anyone been ...6 hours ago
- You leave a ‘microbe fingerprint’ on every piece of clothing you wear – and it could help fore...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paola A. Magni, Associate Professor of Forensic Science, Murdoch University Microgen / Shutterstock When you think of a criminal investigation, you might picture detectives meticulously collecting and analysing evidence found at the scene: weapons, biological fluids, footprints and fingerprints. However, this ...6 hours ago
- Will Lost ETS Revenue Result In $800 Million Hole In Tax Cut Plan And New Borrowing?Recent price falls in the New Zealand market for carbon credits leaves the Government facing the prospect of a significant loss of revenue from carbon auctions this year. The March financial statements from Treasury highlight lower-than-expected revenue ...6 hours ago
- MFAT cuts spending by less than 1 percentThe ministry has found $15 million a year in back-office savings, but is putting an equal amount in new spending for refurbishments. ...7 hours ago
- Kanaky New Caledonia unrest: Macron ends day of political talks with both sidesANALYSIS: By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk French President Emmanuel Macron has ended a meeting-packed whirlwind day in New Caledonia with back-to-back sessions including opposing leaders in the French Pacific territory. Macron left New Caledonia this morning, leaving some members of his entourage to deal with details ...7 hours ago
- Pacific diplomatic posts to get $60m infrastructure upgradeThe ministry has also found $15 million a year in back-office savings, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. ...7 hours ago
- Govt's Mineral Strategy An Environmental Disaster In The Making"The government's 'Draft Mineral Strategy' released this week by Minister for Resources Shane Jones is a disaster in the making for the environment, the climate and people as more and more rural communities will have to battle these companies ...7 hours ago
- A rescue plan for an oddball native plantBehind the pretty flower beds at Auckland Botanic Gardens, conservation mahi is under way for the region’s 357 threatened plants. This is an excerpt from our weekly environmental newsletter Future Proof. Sign up here. At Auckland Botanic Gardens, conservation specialist Ella Rawcliffe has been trying to plant a seed that’s smaller ...8 hours ago
- Ministers give more detail on new social housing plansHousing Ministers Chris Bishop and Tama Potaka have given more detail on how new social housing places will be contracted ...8 hours ago
- Political editors panel: MP's donations, housing dramasRNZ Political Editor Jo Moir and Political Reporter Katie Scotcher discuss messy housing announcements and donations drama. ...9 hours ago
- What I learned about money from scrutinising where MPs hold theirsOne financial hopeful looks to MPs for inspiration on how to be savvy with money. As a person whose search history includes “easy ways to make money” and “what should I do with $1,000 savings”, my interest was piqued when parliament released the pecuniary interests register this week. Since 2005, ...9 hours ago
- Mike King was unaware of chairperson's links to National PartyThe comedian says Naomi Ballantyne can donate money to whoever she wants. ...9 hours ago
- Watch live: Ministers give more detail on new social housing plansHousing Ministers Chris Bishop and Tama Potaka have given more detail on how new social housing places will be contracted. ...9 hours ago
- $2 billion Kāinga Ora programme buys three pieces of land, but no construction confirmedThe sites include a 95-hectare Tauranga farm and a site on Wellington's busy Adelaide Road. ...10 hours ago
- Drug companies pay doctors over A$11 million a year for travel and education. Here’s which special...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Barbara Mintzes, Professor, School of Pharmacy and Charles Perkins Centre, University of Sydney Monster Ztudio/Shutterstock Drug companies are paying Australian doctors millions of dollars a year to fly to overseas conferences and meetings, give talks to other doctors, and to serve ...10 hours ago
- Why knock down all public housing towers when retrofit can sometimes be better?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Trivess Moore, Associate Professor, School of Property, Construction and Project Management, RMIT University The Victorian government is planning Australia’s largest urban renewal project. The plan is to knock down and rebuild 44 large public housing towers in Melbourne. The government says these ...10 hours ago
- A new ruling says countries – including NZ – must take action on climate change under the law of...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Karen Scott, Professor in Law, University of Canterbury Christian Charisius/dpa/Getty Images In a significant development for small island nations threatened by rising seas, the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) has found greenhouse gases constitute marine pollution. The ...10 hours ago
- Life’s big moments can impact an entrepreneur’s success – but not always in the way you’d ex...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pi-Shen Seet, Professor of Entrepreneurship and Innovation, Edith Cowan University William Fortunato/Pexels Entrepreneurs are the lifeblood of any innovative economy. New business creation has been shown to have a significant and positive impact on economic growth, innovation and job creation. ...10 hours ago
- How First Nations fashion design can rewrite painful memories and be a powerful method of healingSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Treena Clark, Chancellor’s Postdoctoral Indigenous Research Fellow, Faculty of Design, Architecture and Building, University of Technology Sydney Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander readers are advised that this article contains names, images and stories of deceased people. Around the world, fashion researchers, ...10 hours ago
- Our mental health crisis, and the $24m questionsGumboot Friday pocketed a significant budget boost this week, writes Stewart Sowman-Lund in this extract from The Bulletin, but concerns have been raised over transparency. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. ...11 hours ago
- Politicians vs farmers in fundraiser rugby match in GisbornePoliticians and farmers are aiming to raise $300,000 to help farmers affected by Cyclone Gabrielle. ...11 hours ago
- NZ companies could benefit from US military space strategy, documents showNZ supports a US defence strategy to get hold of commercial space tech in a conflict, according to briefing papers. ...11 hours ago
- Where is she now? Lorraine Moller
It’s 40 years since Lorraine Moller and her peers broke a glass ceiling at the Los Angeles Olympics. The Games in 1984 saw the inclusion of the women’s marathon for the first time and for Moller, then 29, it was the first of four consecutive appearances in the Olympic race ...12 hours ago - Government's mining proposal an attack on NZ environment – Forest and BirdThe plan could harm Aotearoa's biodiversity and clean green image, environmental group says. ...13 hours ago
- Why are book festivals thriving while the publishing industry is struggling?While New Zealand writers festivals are reporting record audiences, booksellers and publishers are struggling under financial pressure. Books editor Claire Mabey looks at the challenges faced by the industry, and what can be done about it. Last week the Auckland Writers Festival broke all attendance records with more than 85,000 ...13 hours ago
- The media is in crisis… and I just bought a magazineWhen the publisher of NZ Lifestyle Block announced it was closing down, its editor had a scary decision to make. Michael Andrew tells what happened next. At three in the morning a few months ago, I sat at my desk with two windows open on my computer. One was a ...13 hours ago
- Daily crossword, Friday 24 MayThe post Daily crossword, Friday 24 May appeared first on Newsroom. ...13 hours ago
- Government looks to scrap tax incentive for utesRevenue Minister Simon Watts has asked tax officials to work to remove a perceived tax incentive for double-cab utes as part of a larger re-working of fringe benefit tax (FBT). In a briefing released to Newsroom under the Official Information Act, the Inland Revenue Department (IRD) laid out two options ...13 hours ago
- Defence Force slashes study support schemeThe NZDF has cut funding in half for a scheme to help personnel study on the job The post Defence Force slashes study support scheme appeared first on Newsroom. ...13 hours ago
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Good post Ad. Agree entirely with your conclusion in final paragraph. But the chances of this happening under the rabble just elected are minimal.
Let's hope it is a one-term government…..or less.
Actually fifty years since 1973
Validates my decision to go Hybrid in Nov and collect the CCD before the Nat's killed it.
Ta
The reason why the Yanks aren't to worried about oil & gas atm, is because they are largely self efficient due to fracking in the USA & Canada.
But the flip side to this, is the other Economies that are still reliant POL for not only its Economic Security but also the world's economic development EU, Japan, Sth Korea, India before even look at the likes Of Oz or little old NZ which probably has more to lose than anyone else atm.
Ie- distance to & from NZ to export & import goods,
Inflation as costs go up at home & overseas
Costs for goods & services which will feed in Inflation see above LoL.
Interest rates rises could see more defaulters happening across all sectors of NZ's Economy again see above LoL.
The list goes on.
The global neolib system is getting a timely resilience test. Terrorists trying to take out supply lines are just one dimension.
Could be a good idea to shoot the breeze with your local thematic leader…
Have a look at the 'oil' price the past couple of years….you may wish to revaluate your projection.
I already noted the 2023 trading band.
I also cited the current trades.
Go ahead make a point.
The point is quite simply the oil producers have been limiting supply for the past couple of years due to the lack of demand….demand is what sets the price, and the world cannot afford expensive energy (the basis of a modern economy)…the price is the price that can be paid, and the worlds largest supplier (Saudi Arabia) will continue to set the price as high as it can without collapsing demand…with one eye on the cost of fracking.
The price may increase short term but will do what it has done the past couple of years and revert to a sustainable level….they have no choice.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/11/panama-canal-drought-moves-maersk-to-start-using-land-bridge-for-cargo.html
The other passages is having issues aswell
It would be wise for consumer nation states and corporate suppliers this side of the Suez to increase the level of reserves/storage capacity/contingency because of longer shipping times.
As for oil, the risk is to Persian Gulf supply itself, which means planning for lower levels of dependence on that source (working with suppliers to diversify). But in the short term also partnering with corporate suppliers to ensure greater reserves.
This touches on one of my pet peeves, the closure of Marsden Point.
I had a wee look at this below, time and time again it mentions a low likelihood but high consequence event causing a stoppage of imports. (Covid casts a long shadow over the advice.)
https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/17733-fuel-supply-resilience-without-a-domestic-oil-refinery-proactiverelease-pdf
At the crux of these problems, and most other of our problems, is this globalist, market driven ideology.
Refinery NZ is/was a private company with shareholders. Shareholders get twitchy because of their returns being diminished. They aren't interested in national resilience, they are reluctant to spend $ on the necessary upgrades and maintenance.
There is talk of CC emissions in the report. Typical doublespeak (or some other Orwellian term), closing the refinery doesn't impact global emissions but does lower Aotearoa emissions by " 0.75 and 1.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-e) each year." It's just they appear on another nations balance sheet. We will have to pay for that but no mention of that cost in the report.
I was surprised to learn how big a part Marsden Point played in our supply. "In the years immediately before 2020, Refining NZ supplied about 65 to 70 per cent of New Zealand’s total demand for refined fuels, and 100 per cent of its jet fuel."
This is without considering the impact on the Northland economy and the specialised jobs that were lost.
It was surprising to learn how big a part the refinery played in our fuel make up. "In the years immediately before 2020, Refining NZ supplied about 65 to 70 per cent of New Zealand’s total demand for refined fuels, and 100 per cent of its jet fuel. "
NZ needs to get more resilient in respect to the nature of it's imports, ie, developing the pharmaceutical industry etc.
These are issues that seem beyond the imagination and ability of our political masters of all stripes and the public service.
Hey, neo liberals gotta neo liberal.
This touches on one of my pet peeves, the closure of Marsden Point.
I had a wee look at this below, time and time again it mentions a low likelihood but high consequence event causing a stoppage of imports. (Covid casts a long shadow over the advice.)
https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/17733-fuel-supply-resilience-without-a-domestic-oil-refinery-proactiverelease-pdf
At the crux of these problems, and most other of our problems, is this globalist, market driven ideology.
Refinery NZ is/was a private company with shareholders. Shareholders get twitchy because of their returns being diminished. They aren;t interested in national resilience, they are reluctant to spend $ on the necessary upgrades and maintenance.
There is talk of CC emissions in the report. Typical doublespeak (or some other Orwellian term), closing the refinery doesn't impact global emissions but does lower Aotearoa emissions by "0.75 and 1.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-e) each year." It's just they appear on another nations balance sheet. We will have to pay for that but no mention of that cost in the report.
I was surprised to learn how big a part Marsden Point played in our supply. "In the years immediately before 2020, Refining NZ supplied about 65 to 70 per cent of New Zealand's total demand for refined fuels, and 100 per cent of its jet fuel."
This is without considering the impact on the Northland economy and the specialised jobs that were lost.
It was surprising to learn how big a part the refinery played in our fuel make up. "In the years immediately before 2020, Refining NZ supplied about 65 to 70 per cent of New Zealand's total demand for refined fuels, and 100 per cent of its jet fuel. "
NZ needs to get more resilient in respect to the nature of it's imports, ie, developing the pharmaceutical industry etc.
These are issues that seem beyond the imagination and ability of our political masters of all stripes and the public service.
Hey, neo liberals gotta neo liberal.
Edit; The comments section of this Stuff article are worth a peruse,
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125650659/closure-of-marsden-point-oil-refinery-set-to-cost-240-jobs
Sure, instead heavy trucks on roads, limited coastal shipping – concerns about commitment to Kiwi Rail and fast efficient movement of goods by rail between the two islands.
Inflation is going to kill the any economic resurgence National will do there austerity thing and create more poverty and social breakdown.
Inflation is going to kill the any economic resurgence National will do there austerity thing and create more poverty and social breakdown.
What will National do, nothing except exasperate the situation
This would be a good time for house building not going to happen.
Fix the fing ferries not going to happen electrify the entire rail system not going to happen.
Add value to Agriculture in a huge revamp so we are not dependent on heavy low value exports as Shipping will be way more expensive.
Import substitution not going to happen
Reduce dependence on Oil
Not going to happen.
NactNZfirst coalition is going to be a disaster.
The electrified main trunk bisected my farm, I don't recall seeing a single train actually useing the wires , big diesels roaring by is what I see.
Import substitution is an idiotic policy especially for a smallish country like NZ
Weren't we meant to have hit "Peak oil" about 5 years ago?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2022/11/30/peak-oil-the-perennial-prophecy-that-went-wrong/?sh=701c49bf2bbe
When oil prices spike up the coalition government will say its not their fault for the higher pump prices, exactly the opposite of what they were saying a year.
Also interesting how the exceptionally low recent lamb and mutton prices have gone by without a murmur from the farmers, who must be really suffering from the low gate prices, seeing as when prices were double what they are now the sheep farmers still complained they weren't making any money.
When its National in power and their prices drop they shrug their shoulders, blame the weather and just carry on. When its Labour in power they blame the government and drive their tractors into town.
Unfortunately, Treacherous swine have closed our only oil refinery permanently. It has been destroyed, not mothballed.
If we had a nationalized refining company, we could be importing cheap Russian crude, refining it and raising the lifestyles of all NZer's.
But no, thanks to the efforts of the great traitor Douglas, Richardson and Co, the Commons were gutted!