The four horsemen of the apocalypse

16 comments on “The four horsemen of the apocalypse ”

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1. TJ 1

   4 June 2020 at 8:42 am

   For a moment there I had to check this was The Standard. The way you misrepresent the motions and players of the Spanish Civil War as a gross failure of Lefty-ism does at least support your overall point.

   I think it unlikely that the looting will start soon, or racial unrest if the recent solidarity demonstration is proof. Also unlikely that there will be a further outbreak of covid19 in NZ.

   We could build some sort of counter conspiratorial paramilitary Doc Squad. It might invent some new jobs – and that's the first bit of innovation I've heard from anyone anywhere, so good for you on that. Why not, we're spending money we don't have on all sorts of things. Armed Riot Medics. Let's call them, The Black Cross. There is of course the unintended consequences of the initiative, but hell this is NZ. Let's apply some purposive naivety!
2. RedLogix 2

   4 June 2020 at 9:40 am

   Thanks Ad for yet another well written and thoughtful post; in turbulent times it's easy to become lost in the welter of events. When lost the advice is STAR, stop, think, assess and react. Slowly and carefully.

   The post-WW2 US led order, that ensured freedom of the seas, global trade and the dramatic reduction of poverty in most places has come to an end. We have grown up in a short magical, unique period of history when the sheer power of this order meant that geography didn't matter so much; well now we are about to become brutally re-acquainted with it.

   Humans demographics always meant that there were more young people than old, and we could always rely on the needs of young people forming families to ensure there was sufficient demand to grow. That era has come to an end, most developed nations now have an inverted demographic that means consumption led growth is impossible for at least two generations.

   Safe shipping for global oil meant every nation could access at least to some extent the energy required to build and run developed economies. The same applies to the crucial inputs necessary to feed 7.5b people. Without safe shipping economies will collapse, famine will stalk the continents once again.

   And in 2022 something extraordinary happens; the baby boomers are more than two thirds retired, their massive savings and investments will stop, their taxes will stop, their highly skilled productivity stops. All of these things that post-WW2 govts have so depended on for stability fall off a cliff.

   Our entire evolutionary history is predicated on the notion of more was always equal to better, and for the most part it delivered. And while some regions of the world, notably Africa are lagging on the curves, the rest of the world is now into negative human population growth. We have never been here before, we have no road map.

   Russia for instance is facing an existential threat from sheer population collapse. Situated on the vast open Eurasian steppes the current Russian borders cannot be defended, and their army will not have the numbers of young men needed. Their oil production has been frozen in place by the Saudi price war, HIV, killer drug addictions and alcoholism stalks their younger generations, and now COVID is accelerating an already chronic decline.

   Worse still they have a very thin leadership class, in one analysis I read, the top Russian political and bureaucratic class is mostly drawn from the old KGB intelligence community and numbers less than 200 individuals. Most of whom will retire within this decade. And these are the people who know how to run the country. It is hard to visualise any good outcomes for Russia.

   Although the details differ, similar scenarios play out in most places around the world, China, Europe and the Middle East are all facing down multiple layers of existential threat because the global trade order is crumbling before our eyes. All the Americans had to to do was go home, and all the assumptions we have built our post-WW2 security and prosperity on go with them.
   • francesca 2.1

     4 June 2020 at 10:31 am

     And by the way, The old cliches need to be reviewed

     https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/01/russian-alcohol-consumption-down-40-since-2003-who
     • RedLogix 2.1.1

       4 June 2020 at 10:43 am

       A drop from insanely high levels down to just really high. And much of it explained by a numerically smaller younger generation switching from traditional vodka to other drugs.
       • francesca 2.1.1.1

         4 June 2020 at 10:47 am

         And trending downward

         The trend is the thing
         Also
         “Earlier WHO figures showed Russian adults drink less alcohol on average than their French and German counterparts.”
         from the link
3. Andre 3

   4 June 2020 at 10:10 am

   The war we need, and that happens to be big enough to generate the necessary economic stimulus, is the war to get ourselves off of fossil fuels.
4. francesca 4

   4 June 2020 at 10:28 am

   You puzzle me Red, when you say it was the US order which enabled the reduction in global poverty

   China brought 850 million Chinese out of poverty ..according to the World Bank..I think they did this through their own policies, not the beneficence of the US.

   Libya ,from being one of the poorest countries became Africa's richest,..well we all know what happened there

   In Brazil, Lula and Roussef lifted millions out of poverty, as did Chavez and Maduro in Venezuela ,which effectively put targets on their backs

   Honduras anyone?

   Going back aways Guatemala ,Nicaragua,Chile?

   Poverty reduction has not brought favours from the US in Latin America

   Currently the US has sanctions against 30 countries

   While the stated object is to punish supposed human rights breaches , the effect is to punish the poorest citizens of those countries.It's war by economics now that the US hasn't won a military war in decades.

   Think Iran, Syria, Cuba, Venezuela..many others
   • RedLogix 4.1

     4 June 2020 at 10:48 am

     Until China was brought into the world trade order in the 70s it was chronically poor and backward. Everything they have achieved since was predicated on the ability to safely and cheaply import raw materials and export finished goods to wealthy markets in the West.

     Theses conditions are now ended. And the CCP know it.
   • Wayne 4.2

     4 June 2020 at 1:36 pm

     The US was key in helping Asia, including China, make the dramatic burst of growth.
     Basically from the 1960’s the US has been open to free trade in just about everything other than temperate agricultural product. They were the great market for Asia, much more so and much earlier than Europe, which historically has had higher trade barriers.
     Of course the cheaper, and often better goods from Asia has displaced American consumer manufacturing. Hence the rise of Trump.
     • francesca 4.2.1

       4 June 2020 at 5:01 pm

       By the same token you could say China saved every one's economic butt by buying their primary resources and energy
5. Adrian Thornton 5

   4 June 2020 at 10:52 am

   The worst year in NZ history in my life time was 1985/86, after the election of the '84 Labour govt, when we were starting to understand that we on the Left had been infiltrated by a cancer that was to go on to totally destroy the very heart, soul, credibility and moral compass of The Labour Party of New Zealand right in front of our eyes, and was to transform from a party of the workers and disenfranchised to a party whose ideology was to extract endless growth and productivity out of this land and it's workers on the false promise of more, more and still more of who know what?, a party that bows down to an ideology that is so greedy and and unrelenting in it's lust for endless growth that is would literally commodify the steam of your shit if it could.

   
   
   
   • JanM 5.1

     4 June 2020 at 12:31 pm

     I agree – it broke my heart
   • Chris 5.2

     4 June 2020 at 3:32 pm

     And subsequent leaders who chose to do nothing except follow suit.
6. Tricledrown 6

   4 June 2020 at 12:29 pm

   It wasn't till the 1987 crash that the effects of the hard right turn took effect there was no middle ground no plan to reorganize the economy just pull the rug from under New Zealands economy.

   The damage took over 10 years to recover from ,high longterm unemployment massive increase in govt debt low growth in the 36 yrs since.Muldoon built up a $ billion in debt in 9 yrs ,Douglas $16 billion in 6 years claiming the country was bankrupt and couldn't afford to borrow anymore money ironically.

   The NZ experiment ingrained poverty and its consequences poor health funding poor education funding poor housing poor job security.

   If changes were managed and planned we would have far more resilient economy allowing people to transition without the 36 year reverse.Which has us with the highest child poverty rates suicide rates homelessness etc.
7. AB 7

   4 June 2020 at 1:21 pm

   Nobody knows where this is going. It'll be "something different, something nobody counted on."
8. Stunned Mullet 8

   4 June 2020 at 9:15 pm

   The beginning of the end for Trump ?

   https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/former-defense-secretary-jim-mattis-s-full-criticism-of-trump/c7050442-0c6c-417f-98e8-406b1b583def/?itid=hp_hp-top-table-high_mattis-7pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

   He will go ballistic….

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