The Golden Ticket
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7:00 am, September 24th, 2021 - 110 comments
Categories: australian politics, covid-19, health, jacinda ardern -
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Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern claimed yesterday that a very high vaccination rate in New Zealand would represent a “golden ticket” and make level 4 lockdowns redundant. What could that mean that’s positive for New Zealand?
So if we peek over the horizon to January 2022, what might a very high rate of vaccination mean?
Getting to 85% vaccinated would be possible if the 5-12 year olds can get it. That puts it in the well-oiled public health machinery of primary and intermediate schools.
It is a range that puts us in the rarefied company of such countries as Portugal, Singapore, Iceland, Denmark, and Qatar.
It is yet another competitive differentiator away from Australia.
Australia is in the category of “needs to take action”, as distinct from New Zealand’s “Countries Beating Covid-19”.
By February 2021 Australia’s ABC News could see the differentiators.
For Vietnam it was a low-tech hard and fast response.
For Taiwan, extensive public health infrastructure and experience with SARS.
For Thailand, an army of volunteers.
For Cyprus, border controls and lockdowns.
For Rwanda, public trust in the public health system.
For Iceland, sophisticated and widespread testing.
As a distant and small country with few natural resources and a tiny population, we need as many advantages as fate throws our way.
Denmark and Singapore are small successful states that we often use as policy comparators.
Singapore’s Teo Yik Kang the Dean of the Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health at the National University of Singapore, said in August 17th this year that “If countries start to move towards an endemic COVID-19 strategy, the expectation is that there will be more related death, although it is still unclear how many of these will be excess mortality and how many could have occurred regardless of COVID-19.” That requires citizens giving the government and the public health system the social license to treat a level of death and morbidity as a public health background noise similar to road deaths and annual colds.
Is New Zealand really ready for the kind of case number surges that have occurred in Singapore as a result of this public policy?
Denmark has vaccinated 84.5% with a double dose of Pfizer. They are a small country with a sophisticated agricultural base, a social democrat framework and very high trust in government.
More than 353,000 Danes have got infected so far and 2,614 have died of it.
To deal with Denmark’s consequences of re-opening up society and the relative huge surge in cases, Denmark has had to more than double New Zealand’s current intensive care per capita.
Our health system doesn’t have that capacity and would take far too long to get there.
The Danish approach probably wouldn’t work entirely.
Our severity of regulatory response is what we do instead of a first rate health system that could deal with it. We have the social cohesion and trust in government to do that, thankfully.
Neither Singapore nor Denmark have Maori and Pasifika populations that are hard to get to and low on vaccinations on average. New Zealand has that combination to itself.
Freedom of movement is the right we don’t want to lose again.
International travel tracing is well developed. It does appear that the digital passport for proof of disease-free status is on its way as it has been in Denmark.
Lots of countries are considering it for international travel, particularly using the International Air Transport Association (IATA) technology.
Cross-regional and cross-city tracing has a lot of potential if our transport operators can be forced to cooperate with the public health system. We need to move, but we also need to be safe.
Optimism that either Auckland Transport or NZTA will be able to integrate QR codes into regional or national ticketing systems is not high, given that NZTA have been working on that for well over a decade.
But as we found under Levels 3 and 4, because inter-regional travel is as problematic for COVID spread as international travel, personal tracing through mandatory identification as they already do for tolled roads or HOP CRD, Snapper Card, and SuperGold, is inevitable. It’s the new price of movement.
The Golden Ticket Ifs
If we can get to 90% vaccinated including those 5-12 years, and
if we can get an upgraded ICU health system to cope as Denmark and Singapore are having to, and if we can in fairly quick order unify our health system away from false regional boundaries, and if we can re-tool a health system in time to support Maori and Pasifika vaccination rates as they have over the last 6 months, and if we can get transport systems to identify personal movement or otherwise keep us safe, and if we can keep our social cohesion and live with a higher background rate of death and morbidity, then we can get freedom of movement back, and then we can live with COVID.
That’s a lot of probabilistic if’s with just three months before we put our “Golden Ticket” in the hands of 2022. And it is probably our only good path.
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- Release: $1.7b for no increase in access to medicineThe National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...1 week ago
- Release: National should heed Tribunal warning and scrap coalition commitment with ACTThis afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...1 week ago
- Release: More accountability for preventable workplace deaths this Workers’ Memorial DayLabour is calling for more accountability for preventable workplace deaths because everybody who goes to work deserves to come home safely. ...1 week ago
- Gaza: Aotearoa Must Support Independent Investigation into Mass GravesTe Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Working together on consistent support for veterans this Anzac DayOur two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Penny drops – but what about Seymour and Peters?Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...2 weeks ago
- Another ‘Stolen Generation’ enabled by court ruling on Waitangi Tribunal summonsTonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Budget blunder shows Nicola Willis could cut recovery fundingIt appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...2 weeks ago
- Further environmental mismanagement on the cardsThe Government’s resource management reforms will add to the heavy and ever-growing burden this Government is loading on to our environment. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: RMA changes will be a disaster for environmentThe Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour supports urgent changes to emergency management systemLabour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour calls for New Zealand to recognise PalestineThe Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Three strikes law political posturing of worst kindThe Government is bringing back a law that has little evidential backing just to look tough, Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Government cuts unbelievably target child exploitation, violent extremism, ports and airpor...Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...2 weeks ago
- Three strikes has failed before and will fail againResurrecting the archaic three-strikes legislation is an unwelcome return to a failed American-style approach to justice. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Environmental protection vital, not ‘onerous’The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...2 weeks ago
- Ferris – Three Strikes targets those ‘too brown to be white’The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt cuts doctors and nurses in hiring freezeCuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...3 weeks ago
- Fast-track submissions period must be extendedThe Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Progress on climate will be undone by GovtNew Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...3 weeks ago
- NZ – European Union ties more critical than ever
Your Excellency Ambassador Meredith, Members of the Diplomatic Corps and Ambassadors from European Union Member States, Ministerial colleagues, Members of Parliament, and other distinguished guests, Thank you everyone for joining us. Ladies and gentlemen - In diplomacy, we often speak of ‘close’ and ‘long-standing’ relations. ...10 hours ago - Therapeutic Products Act to be repealedThe Therapeutic Products Act (TPA) will be repealed this year so that a better regime can be put in place to provide New Zealanders safe and timely access to medicines, medical devices and health products, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello announced today. “The medicines and products we are talking about ...13 hours ago
- Decisions on Wellington City Council’s District PlanThe Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop, today released his decision on twenty recommendations referred to him by the Wellington City Council relating to its Intensification Planning Instrument, after the Council rejected those recommendations of the Independent Hearings Panel and made alternative recommendations. “Wellington notified its District Plan on ...15 hours ago
- Rape Awareness Week: Government committed to action on sexual violenceRape Awareness Week (6-10 May) is an important opportunity to acknowledge the continued effort required by government and communities to ensure that all New Zealanders can live free from violence, say Ministers Karen Chhour and Louise Upston. “With 1 in 3 women and 1 in 8 men experiencing sexual violence ...16 hours ago
- Smarter lunch programme feeds more, costs lessAssociate Education Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government will be delivering a more efficient Healthy School Lunches Programme, saving taxpayers approximately $107 million a year compared to how Labour funded it, by embracing innovation and commercial expertise. “We are delivering on our commitment to treat taxpayers’ money ...17 hours ago
- Report provides insights into marine recoveryNew research on the impacts of extreme weather on coastal marine habitats in Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay will help fishery managers plan for and respond to any future events, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. A report released today on research by Niwa on behalf of Fisheries New Zealand ...18 hours ago
- NZ to send political delegation to the PacificDeputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will lead a broad political delegation on a five-stop Pacific tour next week to strengthen New Zealand’s engagement with the region. The delegation will visit Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Tuvalu. “New Zealand has deep and ...19 hours ago
- Low gas production threatens energy securityThere has been a material decline in gas production according to figures released today by the Gas Industry Co. Figures released by the Gas Industry Company show that there was a 12.5 per cent reduction in gas production during 2023, and a 27.8 per cent reduction in gas production in the ...23 hours ago
- Defence industry talent, commitment recognisedDefence Minister Judith Collins tonight announced the recipients of the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for Industry, saying they all contribute to New Zealanders’ security and wellbeing. “Congratulations to this year’s recipients, whose innovative products and services play a critical role in the delivery of New Zealand’s defence capabilities, ...1 day ago
- Speech to the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for IndustryWelcome to you all - it is a pleasure to be here this evening.I would like to start by thanking Greg Lowe, Chair of the New Zealand Defence Industry Advisory Council, for co-hosting this reception with me. This evening is about recognising businesses from across New Zealand and overseas who in ...1 day ago
- Speech to the Sixth Annual New Zealand Government Data SummitIt is a pleasure to be speaking to you as the Minister for Digitising Government. I would like to thank Akolade for the invitation to address this Summit, and to acknowledge the great effort you are making to grow New Zealand’s digital future. Today, we stand at the cusp of ...1 day ago
- Ceasefire agreement needed now: PetersNew Zealand is urging both Israel and Hamas to agree to an immediate ceasefire to avoid the further humanitarian catastrophe that military action in Rafah would unleash, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The immense suffering in Gaza cannot be allowed to worsen further. Both sides have a responsibility to ...2 days ago
- Daily school attendance data now availableA new online data dashboard released today as part of the Government’s school attendance action plan makes more timely daily attendance data available to the public and parents, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. The interactive dashboard will be updated once a week to show a national average of how ...2 days ago
- Ambassador to United States appointedForeign Minister Winston Peters has announced Rosemary Banks will be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States of America. “Our relationship with the United States is crucial for New Zealand in strategic, security and economic terms,” Mr Peters says. “New Zealand and the United States have a ...2 days ago
- New permit proposed for recreational gold miningThe Government is considering creating a new tier of minerals permitting that will make it easier for hobby miners to prospect for gold. “New Zealand was built on gold, it’s in our DNA. Our gold deposits, particularly in regions such as Otago and the West Coast have always attracted fortune-hunters. ...2 days ago
- NZ and the UAE launch FTA negotiationsMinister for Trade Todd McClay today announced that New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA). Minister McClay met with his counterpart UAE Trade Minister Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi in Dubai, where they announced the launch of negotiations on a ...2 days ago
- New Zealand Sign Language Week an opportunity for anyone to signNew Zealand Sign Language Week is an excellent opportunity for all Kiwis to give the language a go, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. This week (May 6 to 12) is New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL) Week. The theme is “an Aotearoa where anyone can sign anywhere” and aims to ...2 days ago
- Next stop NASA for New Zealand studentsSix tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...2 days ago
- $1.9 billion investment to keep NZ safe from crimeNew Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...2 days ago
- OECD reinforces need to control spendingThe OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. ...3 days ago
- Agreement delivers Local Water Done Well for AucklandThe Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...4 days ago
- Gaza and the Pacific on the agenda with GermanyForeign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...5 days ago
- Decision allows for housing growth in Western Bay of PlentyThe Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...6 days ago
- Speech to New Zealand China CouncilThank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...6 days ago
- Modern insurance law will protect Kiwi householdsThe Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...6 days ago
- Government recommits to equal payThe coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...7 days ago
- Transforming how our children learn to readStructured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...7 days ago
- NZ not backing down in Canada dairy disputeTrade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...7 days ago
- Stronger oversight for our most vulnerable childrenThe rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...7 days ago
- Streamlining Building Consent ChangesThe Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...7 days ago
- Minister acknowledges passing of Sir Robert Martin (KNZM)New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...1 week ago
- Speech to New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Parliament – Annual Lecture: Challenges ...Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...1 week ago
- Accelerating airport security linesFrom today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...1 week ago
- Community hui to talk about kina barrensPeople with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...1 week ago
- Kiwi exporters win as NZ-EU FTA enters into forceKiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...1 week ago
- Mining resurgence a welcome signThere are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...1 week ago
- Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill passes first readingThe return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...1 week ago
- Government to boost public EV charging networkEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...1 week ago
- Residential Property Managers Bill to not progressThe coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...1 week ago
- Independent review into disability support servicesThe Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...1 week ago
- Gas is good until 2050 and beyond, under Albanese gas strategy
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The Albanese government is talking up the crucial role of gas as a transition fuel “through to 2050 and beyond”. In a gas strategy to be released on Thursday, the government envisages the fuel’s ...3 hours ago - Politics with Michelle Grattan: James Paterson on prospects for passage of the government’s deport...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Next week the government will again next try to get its legislation through to deal with non-citizens who won’t cooperate with efforts to deport them. The bill, which the opposition and crossbench refused to rush ...8 hours ago
- NZCTU Launch Project To Set Out Alternative Vision For Aotearoa
A long-term project that will set out an alternative vision for Aotearoa that looks beyond the narrow confines of the policy straight jacket adopted by successive governments. ...10 hours ago - Yes, Australia’s big supermarkets have been price gouging. But fixing the problem won’t be easySource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bree Hurst, Associate Professor, Faculty of Business and Law, QUT, Queensland University of Technology TK Kurikawa/Shutterstock A much-awaited report into Coles and Woolworths has found what many customers have long believed – Australia’s big supermarkets engage in price gouging. What started ...10 hours ago
- The government wanted to avoid an inquiry into its deportation bill. Given the findings, it’s easy...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Ghezelbash, Associate Professor and Deputy Director, Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law, UNSW Law & Justice, UNSW Sydney The Albanese government wanted to avoid an inquiry into its migration amendment bill. The report, handed down yesterday by a senate committee that ...10 hours ago
- Senate report on lobbying passes the buck on improving transparency or legislationSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joo-Cheong Tham, Professor, Melbourne Law School, The University of Melbourne Lobbying is at the heart of government. Who has access to and influence over key government officials shapes the decisions governments make – and how they make them. The ability to influence ...10 hours ago
- Ngāti Toa rallies against Fast Track Approvals Bill
Iwi would not allow the government to degrade its whenua, moana or awa for the purpose of urban development, ministers were told. ...11 hours ago - Free school lunches: Labour MP apologises over 'offensive' Hamas tweet to SeymourDuncan Webb had queried if the ACT leader did not like hummus because it is too close to Hamas. ...11 hours ago
- Australia’s Eurovision entry this year is the first to sing in First Nations language: meet Electr...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Myfany Turpin, Associate Professor, Ethnomusicology, Linguistics and Ethnobiology, University of Sydney The act representing Australia at this year’s Eurovision contest has sadly not qualified for the grand final. Yet for Zaachariaha Fielding and Michael Ross, the duo that makes up Electric Fields, ...12 hours ago
- Labour claims win as govt commits to new free school lunches modelThe Labour Party is claiming a win for its campaign that the government commit to keeping and funding free school lunches. ...12 hours ago
- A definitive list of woke and non-woke foods
In announcing changes to the school lunches programme, David Seymour said kids would no longer be served ‘woke’ foods. To clear up any confusion, The Spinoff has compiled a guide to the wokeness levels of some common food items. Apple = NOT WOKE Avocado = WOKE Avocado, smashed = EVEN ...13 hours ago - Future of the planet more important than the Greens survival, former co-leader James Shaw saysFormer Green Party co-leader James Shaw calls out tribalism and hyper-partisanship - including in his own party. ...13 hours ago
- Fourth urgent inquiry by the Waitangi Tribunal, this time on Māori wardsThe Tribunal is conducting another urgent inquiry into plans to require councils to hold a binding referendum on Māori wards. ...14 hours ago
- NCSC Briefs IPAC Representatives On Response To Malicious Cyber ActivityThe Minister Responsible for GCSB and the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security have been notified of this review, and have been provided a finalised Terms of Reference. ...14 hours ago
- How is China being taught at Australian universities? And why does this matter? Here’s what our re...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Minglu Chen, Senior Lecturer, Government and International Relations, University of Sydney Robert Way/Shutterstock As the past few years have illustrated so clearly, the Australia-China relationship is complicated. As such, it is crucial for Australians to develop a more nuanced understanding of ...14 hours ago
- Saving the Mary River turtle: how the people of Tiaro rallied behind an iconic speciesSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mariana Campbell, Research Lecturer, Conservation, Charles Darwin University Marilyn Connell Australian freshwater turtles are facing an alarming trend. Almost half of these species are listed as vulnerable, endangered or critically endangered. The Mary River turtle (Elusor macrurus) is one of Australia’s ...14 hours ago
- Why are algorithms called algorithms? A brief history of the Persian polymath you’ve likely never ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Debbie Passey, Digital Health Research Fellow, The University of Melbourne Algorithms have become integral to our lives. From social media apps to Netflix, algorithms learn your preferences and prioritise the content you are shown. Google Maps and artificial intelligence are nothing without ...14 hours ago
- Neuroaffirming care values the strengths and differences of autistic people, those with ADHD or othe...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Josephine Barbaro, Associate Professor, Principal Research Fellow, Psychologist, La Trobe University Unsplash We’ve come a long way in terms of understanding that everyone thinks, interacts and experiences the world differently. In the past, autistic people, people with attention deficit hyperactive disorder ...14 hours ago
- ‘Reckless’ kina devaluation spells disaster for PNG, says NomanePNG Post-Courier Papua New Guinea’s deputy opposition leader James Nomane has accused the government of “reckless economic management” that has forced devaluation to manage loan repayments in foreign currency and placate the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Prime Minister James Marape “must stop lying to the people of Papua New Guinea”, ...14 hours ago
- Modernising Census – Stats NZFrom today, members of the public can have their say on what Aotearoa New Zealand’s census could look like in the future. ...14 hours ago
- ‘I do love a good funnysad novel’: Jane Arthur on her favourite booksWelcome to The Spinoff Bookseller Confessional, in which we get to know Aotearoa’s booksellers. This week: Jane Arthur, author of Brown Bird, and former bookseller at Good Books. The book I wish I’d written I have been working on not comparing myself to others. On accepting that what I can ...14 hours ago
- RMA Minister rejects Wellington council's bid to remove heritage protections from buildingsCouncil did not provide sufficient evidence to support its reasons for removing the 10 buildings from the Heritage schedule, Chris Bishop says. ...15 hours ago
- War for Wellington: Minister approves sweeping upzoning, rejects heritage changesThe final decision on the Wellington District Plan makes it official: High-density housing is legal across most of Wellington. Housing minister Chris Bishop has announced his decision on the Wellington District Plan, approving a series of amendments to radically upzone most of Wellington, allowing tens of thousands of new townhouses ...15 hours ago
- Bryce Edwards Analysis – Following the political moneyAnalysis by Dr Bryce Edwards – Democracy Project (https://democracyproject.nz) Political scientist, Dr Bryce Edwards. “Follow the money” is the classic directive to journalists trying to understand where power and influence lie in society. In terms of uncovering who influences various New Zealand political parties and governments, it therefore pays to ...16 hours ago
- Free school lunches: Year 7 students and above to shift to alternative modelA new interim delivery model will kick in next year to allow time for a full redesign of the scheme before any more money is dedicated. ...16 hours ago
- Rafah ‘last place of safety’ in Gaza, UN aid boss warnsRNZ News As Israel presses ahead with strikes in Rafah and seizing the Rafah crossing from Egypt, aid agencies are sounding the alarm of a “catastrophic humanitarian situation”. Rafah was “significant” because it was the only part in Gaza that had not been terribly damaged by the conflict, United Nations ...16 hours ago
- Foreign Affairs minister to lead Pacific delegationThe Foreign Affairs minister is heading on a five-stop Pacific tour, which he says will strengthen New Zealand's engagement in the region. ...16 hours ago
- Why we’re fighting to save Te Huia, the Hamilton-Auckland trainWith funding set to be scrapped for the Hamilton-Auckland commuter train, Te Huia enthusiast Georgie Dansey argues for it to be thrown a lifeline. It’s 5.45am and the chain of my crappy old bike falls off slugging up the one hill in Hamilton. I contemplate yeeting the bike into the ...16 hours ago
- Greens Call On Government To Keep Same-day Election Enrolment And VotingOn Radio New Zealand this morning, the Justice Minister stated the Government was considering ending election day enrolments. ...16 hours ago
- Many people are feeling ecological grief. How can we help those whose work puts them at risk?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Cooke, Honorary Fellow, School of the Environment, The University of Queensland We feel ecological grief when we lose places, species or ecosystems we value and love. These losses are a growing threat to mental health and wellbeing globally. We all see ...17 hours ago
- Revitalizing Toronto’s downtown core after COVID-19 greatly benefits the city and the regionSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shauna Brail, Associate Professor, Institute for Management & Innovation, University of Toronto A shift to hybrid and remote work continues to affect worker presence in Toronto’s downtown. (Shutterstock) Downtown Toronto, the core of Canada’s largest city, continues to reel from the lingering ...17 hours ago
- Government quiet on costs, building plan for Waikato prison expansionThe extra beds would take longer than the four-years covered in this week's budget announcement to deliver, the Corrections Minister told RNZ. ...17 hours ago
- Chief Electoral Officer Needs To Fall On His SwordResponding to an Auditor-General's report slamming failures in the administration of the 2023 General Election, Taxpayers’ Union Policy and Public Affairs Manager, James Ross, said: ...18 hours ago
- How many productivity apps do I have to use to become more productive?Productivity apps now make up a big chunk of the software market. But do they work? And why do they all have AI integrations? Despite being firmly on the record as a physical planner fan, I sometimes dream of something better than my pretty diary and its scrawled, ugly, interior ...18 hours ago
- Government considers removing election day voter enrolmentJustice Minister Paul Goldsmith says very few countries allow it, and New Zealand should consider changing the rules. ...18 hours ago
- Beehive Need To Lead By ExampleThe Taxpayers’ Union says the Beehive need to lead by example, following reports of more than $50,000 spent upgrading video conferencing equipment and furniture in the Prime Minister’s office. Taxpayers’ Union Campaign Manager, Connor Molloy, ...19 hours ago
- The Spinoff Power List: 50 New Zealanders you need to knowAn objective list of the 50 most powerful people in New Zealand, as judged by the Spinoff Editorial Board. It’s power list season, baby, and we want in on the action. Sure, there’s the rich list and the powerful “c-suite” list and the young people with power (hmmm) but here, ...19 hours ago
- First Nations imprisonment is already at a record high. Unless government policy changes, it will on...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Thalia Anthony, Professor of Law, University of Technology Sydney Shutterstock This article contains information on deaths in custody and the names of deceased people, and describes ongoing colonial violence towards Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. First Nations people in Australia ...20 hours ago
- Martha isn’t Baby Reindeer’s biggest villain. So why is she painted as such?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alex Simpson, Senior Lecturer in Criminology, Macquarie University Netflix Baby Reindeer’s phenomenal success has much to do with its writer and lead, Richard Gadd, who plays Donny in a tender semi-autobiographical account of sexual abuse, harassment and stalking. Gadd’s story has ...20 hours ago
- Yes, adults can develop food allergies. Here are 4 types you need to know aboutSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Collins, Laureate Professor in Nutrition and Dietetics, University of Newcastle KarolinaGrabowska/Pexels If you didn’t have food allergies as a child, is it possible to develop them as an adult? The short answer is yes. But the reasons why are much ...20 hours ago
- An outsider on the inside: how Ans Westra created New Zealand’s ‘national photo album’Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Moon, Professor of History, Auckland University of Technology Ans Westra, self-portrait, c. 1963. National Library ref AWM-0705-F They try but invariably fail – those writers who believe they are capable of encapsulating in prose or verse the essence of ...21 hours ago
- How the lessons from Covid-19 could help us prepare for bird fluStewart Sowman-Lund looks at the growing concern around the world in this extract from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. What’s all this? When Covid-19 arrived on our shores in early 2020, some argued we were too slow, or crucially, ill-prepared for a pandemic. So ...21 hours ago
- As climate change amplifies urban flooding, here’s how communities can become ‘sponge cities’Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Franco Montalto, Professor of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering and Director, Sustainable Water Resource Engineering Laboratory, Drexel University Water runs into a storm drain in a Los Angeles alley on Aug. 19, 2023, during Tropical Storm Hilary. Citizen of the Planet/Universal Images ...22 hours ago
- Genesis Energy to fire up coal imports, citing increased demand, dwindling gas supplyGenesis Energy is to resume importing coal, as reduced gas supplies and increased demand add to the problems of keeping the lights on. ...22 hours ago
- The Boy in the Water: ‘Someone was struggling at a fence’
The inquest into the death of Gore toddler Lachlan Jones has turned up a new witness who says he saw two teenagers and a small child in a high vis vest in the area where the boy’s body was found the day he died. Lachie’s body was discovered face up ...22 hours ago - Te Pāti Māori comments: 'That kind of language isn't helpful'Political parties have roundly criticised Te Pāti Māori for using words like 'extermination' and 'white supremacy' in the House. ...23 hours ago
- Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey sought advice on ‘social impact bonds’ to fund servicesMinisters have sought advice on 'social impact bonds', which offer a potential return on private investment in public services. ...23 hours ago
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“Our severity of regulatory response is what we do instead of a first rate health system that could deal with it. We have the social cohesion and trust in government to do that, thankfully.”
Just looking at the daily news items, reporting ever more lockdown-breakers – it looks like lockdown fatigue / lockdown stir-craziness is likely to increase with any more Lockdown 4 regimes.
So the more people we can get vaccinated, obviously, the better. Especially as vaxed folk like moi can still get, and shed, Covid-19.
Dunno how I feel about being tracked wherever I go. Doesn’t really appeal. Bad enuf feeling like every device one uses these days Google, fb, various websites etc are tracking you. And forking over your data to others.
Do you have a mobile phone?
I can understand why people might be anxious about having their internet browsing behaviour tracked, but assume it already is, and why they might be concerned that their spending history could be followed, which I also assume is readily visible to anyone determined to know what you've spent and where you spent it, but why the anxiety about knowing which locations you visit throughout the day? Perhaps someone might set me straight?
Just look up any address and it tracks it from where you are, wherever you are.
Given how bloody clever cyber crims are these days, I’m always concerned about my smartphone getting hacked. Especially after a friend of mine up North dropped out of contact for a while. Then she sent me a text saying “Sorry not been in touch. My phone got hacked!”
Use a smartphone security , I use eset for up to 5 devices, both android and microsoft.
Where possible dont use your smartphone for some things like email or banking. Email is a common way for hackers to get in.
I turn off the GPS function on smartphone, and disable the options in apps that want to use it. I turn off camera and microphone options for apps that want that, other than camera and calling of course. Most apps can have their options restricted like this.
The other method is to use airplane mode more often, effectively removes you from network…try it while you travel and only turn back on at home etc.
Looks like some excellent tips & advice there, Ghosty
Ta very much. Gonna copy that to iPad Notes.
Re your: “Where possible dont use your smartphone for some things like email or banking. Email is a common way for hackers to get in.”
Yep I already figured that, & I never use email or do online banking on my smartphone. I also don’t keep any personal identifying data in my Galaxy’s Notes or other apps. I’ve kept my apps almost entirely to the defaults it came with.
And I don’t sync my smartphone to other devices.
@ Ad
Yep, got a smartphone. Put off getting one for S long as I could tho. I just carried on for as long as I could using a flip top 3G mobile, which I preferred because of its compactness. And it was a prepay. I’d just top it up as needed. They had no personal data in their records like Google does with my Galaxy smartphone.
I only went to a smartphone when the 3G-mobile’s battery was at the end of its life & I couldn’t get replacement.
On my smartphone I tried to switch off location for any app that didn’t require it to run. Had to enable location for the camera tho.
Location trackers are just part of life.
There's no right to spatial anonymity.
“There’s no right to spatial anonymity.”
…………………………..
There isn’t now. There used to be. Or at least, only your Visa & Eftpos cards tracked your financial location when you spent $.
The price of easy access to internet has been having to surrender personal data to companies who reserve the right to exploit tracking you.
Businesses are not even required to take cash.
We must simply accept perpetual surveillance as the price of free movement.
Probably Jacinda wouldn't quite put it as baldly as that.
"Businesses are not even required to take cash".
I think it is a little more complicated than that. If you want to buy something and tender cash for the item that is merely an offer. The second part of creating a contract is that the vendor can accept or refuse the offer. If they don't want cash, or more generally legal tender, they don't have to do so as they don't have to accept your offer.
If, on the other hand, you have reached the stage where you have incurred a debt to the vendor you can offer legal tender to settle the debt. That would be the case where you have taken possession of the goods. Settling your debt is a unilateral action.
There are various rules about whether cash, and in particular coins, are legal tender. If you want to pay a large debt with small denomination coins you can't insist on it as the amount may exceed the limit for it being legal tender.
ps. Those certainly were the rules in New Zealand. I don't bother to keep up the niceties of the matter anymore so I may be out of date.
The Assistant Governor of the NZ Reserve Bank stated back in in 2019 that there was no obligation for businesses to accept cash.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/do-you-want-right-pay-in-cash#:~:text=%22At%20the%20moment%20there%20is,dollars%2C%22%20Mr%20Hawkesby%20said.
If you really want to go into the legalities of what is considered "legal tender", have a go at this extensive legal opinion from the RBNZ:
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/reservebank/files/publications/bulletins/2007/2007sep70-3mcbride.pdf
Yes. It was the second link that I was trying to paraphrase. That is about the difference between the offer of cash for goods, which does not have to be accepted, and the settlement of a debt, which in practice did as if you refused it you had no means of enforcing the payment of the debt. I think RNZ went a bit far in interpreting what the RBNZ Deputy Governor actually said. He was talking about the "offer" of legal tender in the making of a contract..
For a contract to exist requires, "offer", ,"acceptance" and "consideration," (Down payment) which can be anything the contracting parties accept as having value. Cash or electronic exchange of bits is valid though it could be something else of value to the parties. Verbal contracts are equally valid. Of course a written contract, and exchange of money (legal tender) is easier, when you require proof of a contract in court.
I expect by December Christmas this year most retailers will not only NOT take cash, they will ONLY take contactless card transactions ie no more standard EFTPOS cards.
1 contact, 1 germ, 1 outbreak that kills their business.
The day NZ businesses refuse to accept cash NZD for payment is the day that the loss of sovereign issuance begins to occur…..Zimbabwe know what that is like.
That day happened at least sometime last year. All card on campus now – coffee, printing, everything.
Whether this is business led or consumer led is hard to tell. In our business we've seen a gradual move away from cash over the last 20 years, or you could say a gradual move toward card payment over the last 20 years. We still accept cash, but now take so little, like none, we don't keep a float in the till any more.
The biggest change in the move from cash has been at the bank, they don't need tellers to process the deposits so most branches now only have one teller when the same branch would have had 4 or 5 20 years ago. In our case we used to bank every other day with cheques and NZ and overseas cash, now we can go 3 or 4 months without making a branch or atm deposit. It all goes through the eftpos machine.
I last took out cash from my bank account was, as I have just checked, on the 1st of June. I took out $100 and I still have $90 in my wallet. I probably had $10 in cash when I withdrew the money
I have therefore used only $20 cash in almost 3 months.
begin
/bɪˈɡɪn/
verb
3rd person present: begins
perform or undergo the first part of (an action or activity).
@Graeme
Whether it is consumer driven (which as you describe it is driven by economics for the banking system) is largely irrelevant….if the system develops to the point whereby the issued currency becomes of little or no use then the ability of the state to determine the volume and velocity of that currency diminishes….it has the potential to advance the uptake of the likes of CDCs, something all currency issuers fear and for good reason.What control governments then?
Or the issuance of Central Bank DCs with the complete control of all aspects of everyones lives.
Neither are desirable outcomes.
Not for the history of cellphone networks. they all track ywhich towers you are pinging and signal strength as part of network maintenance. But many a crim got nabbed by the location of their cellphone when the crime happened.
Exactly. So even if you just rely on an old 3g mobile your travels can still be traced by your telecom provider. That is unless you switch it off.
In the past my nephew has given expert witness statements for the prosecution on the whereabouts of a defendant.
Actually there is.
The Signal Code
So is that a right to spatial anonymity?
When you sign up to your provider, you are agreeing to share where you are, so you have given up any reasonable expectation of privacy.
– You've already made a public disclosure of facts
– You've already disclosed facts of a previously private nature
– None of the location details are in and of themselves offensive
– And there's plenty of argument to be made about a legitimate public concern to have one's location details available to the public.
Nothing to be afraid of, and no right to defend in the first place.
I don't have a phone. If ever I get lost, I'm going to have to rely on my embedded tracker 🙂
… that and the fact that Riverton only has a total of seven actual streets.
Are you quite sure about that? It could be that you are just a person with an average memory and 7 is apparently the average number of things that people can remember in short term memory. Maybe there are a few more but 7 is your limit.
https://thebrain.mcgill.ca/flash/capsules/experience_jaune03.html
I thought it was really only four. I remember hearing an interview with the chap who had first developed the use of PIN codes. He said that the number of digits being limited to 4 was because that was the biggest number that his wife would be able to remember. If I had tried some wise crack like that I wouldn't have dared to go home, or at least I wouldn't have dared to turn my back on my wife when she was near anything she could hit me with.
OMG Alwyn. There are more than 7 streets in Riverton.
More than 7! Really? Last time I went through I blinked and missed it. To be fair that was a long long time ago.
On the other hand, looking at Google Maps I see that it is an enormous place. And there was me thinking it was about the size of Ongaonga in Hawkes Bay. It has about 4 streets.
Maybe you just oughta
linger longer
in Ongaonga
Home phone only. People enjoy showing me (at a distance) what you can do with smart phones, which is a win-win; they think they're helping me, and I think I'm helping them – everyone likes to feel useful.
My biro and notebook are a bit burdensome, but I've gotten used to the extra weight and haven't forgotten them in ages – good for all sorts of things.
Once upon a time, in the long long ago, many people kept a daily record of their comings and goings – diaries I think they were called. Amazing!
How would you feel about being tracked whenever you go?
The pan-opticon
Already "make level 4 restrictions redundant" is being interpreted as no lock downs at all; "90%" is being interpreted as 90% with one jab . . . – and 'freedom" is being interpreted as no border controls and freedom to return from other countries without isolation if you have a certificate . . .
I've been reading through the recent Hendy and colleagues modelling paper. In Table 1 they assume that vaccination reduces the probability of transmission in an infected individual by about 50%. My understanding was that Oxford University had shown that viral loads were about the same in infected people regardless of vaccination status. These two things don't seem to square up, am I missing something here?
If the viral load is the same, but the transmission rate is halved, then it must be the mechanics of transmission: coughing etc that make the difference, imo.
I’d got the impression that vaxed folk who get Covid shed the virus at the same rate as unvaxed people. It’s just that you don’t suffer the severe symptoms?
Thats not correct it varies greatly from person to person just as some vaxxed people still end up extremely ill and others are completely asymptomatic…
Vaccinated people who get infected usually don't show severe symptoms because the virus establishs in upper respiratory tract only, and fails to move into the lungs. In unvaccinated it moves readily into the lungs (and everywhere else) which is when it gets dangerous.
Apparently the current crop of vaccines don't illicit a strong immune response on the surfaces of the upper respiratory tract but produce a stronger immune response inside the lungs and interior tissues (which is still a fantastic thing to have!). There is work being done on developing vaccines that also boost surfaces of upper respiratory tract.
👍🏼 Thanks.
Vaccinated people infected with Delta Covid reach the same peak viral load in the upper respiratory tract, but this viral load lasts for a shorter period than in the unvaccinated. Hence lower transmission.
See here:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1.full.pdf+html
Other studies that compare viral load vs vaccination have either found same load, or lower load in vaccinated. This can probably be understood by looking at the timing of sampling – if early in disease, get same load. If later, lower load.
Thank-you for that reference.
I have one more question to ask if I may?
We are told that children only get mild cases of covid, is it known whether this means that for them the virus is largely confined to the upper respiratory tract and generally does not get down to the lungs? In other words, is whatever is protecting children acting in a similar way to the vaccines?
From a couple of weeks ago when this question was asked (h/t Treetop for originally linking the article):
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/unraveling-the-mystery-of-why-children-are-better-protected-from-covid-than-adults/
tl;dr Kids' perma-snotty noses actually contain a first response system to viruses that are new to them, that adults never used to need so it doesn't get maintained. Because it comes at a fairly high metabolic cost.
Which is all very well. But the situation we're facing is that kids are very likely to be facing a new virus that frequently breaks through this defence and wreaks havoc. So while most children are have better defences against the virus than adults, it still causes long term disability and even deaths in enough children that we'd be going pretty hard to protect them, even if it rarely affected adults. Think meningococcal disease a few years back.
Mechanistically, no. The ‘snot barrier’ is and acts very differently and is part of the so-called the innate immune system while vaccines work through the adaptive immune system.
Hendy's model is being criticised quite heavily, and doesn't stack up against other countries with similar vaccination rates that have opened up. e.g:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300414401/covid19-nz-rodney-jones-says-shaun-hendys-7000death-vaccine-model-doesnt-pass-plausibility-test
The cynic in me would suggest that the government has set out an implausible doomsday scenario so that when it doesn't eventuate they can be credited with saving us all.
Cynicism can be a good attribute unless it clouds your thinking too much.
Nicholas Steyn1,3, Michael Plank2,3, and Shaun Hendy1,3
The same guy predicted up to 80000 Covid deaths last year.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120604818/new-model-shows-coronavirus-could-kill-80000-kiwis-without-lockdown
Obvious scare-mongering then as even India with a virtually non-existent health system in some areas and a population of 1.4 billion has only recorded 446 thousand deaths from Covid.
https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+deaths+india&rlz=1C1GCEA_enNZ855NZ855&oq=covid+deaths+india&aqs=chrome.0.0i131i433i512j0i512l9.3203j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
So, I think I will keep to my cynicism so far as Hendy is concerned.
I think you should rather place your cynicism to the recorded figures of deaths in India. Those figures are for the deaths in hospitals, completely overlooking the deaths in the streets and villages.
Some estimates of the actual deaths from covid in India from the Centre for Global Development put the figure up to 10 times that of the recorded figure.
The street dwellers India have virtually no representation in government considerations.
I understand that. But even allowing for 10x the death rate in India with all its problems, then that would only equate to 16000 on a population basis if applied in NZ. Still a long way short of 80000.
Do the conditions in India match the criteria for that 80k maximum?
Because Hendy's prediction for the conditions we actually implemented were bang on.
The other thing is that the situation in India was far worse than here at the height of the pandemic. I recall seeing on the news remote villages where medical centres had been abandoned leaving the residents to fend for themselves. And there was huge shortages of oxygen etc to keep people alive.
So, whatever the actual deathrate, it is probably far worse than it would be in NZ in the same circumstances.
The worst cynics are the ignorant ones and the worst ignorami are the ones who are not sufficiently self-aware of their ignorance.
Hendy’s models have actually been ‘road-tested’ and found to be quite accurate, retrospectively. The real power of simulation models is that that they can guide you when you don’t have all the data in hand yet and need to act decisively and pro-actively, e.g., with government policies and strategies.
PS India =//= NZ, but that’s just another false equivalence that you don’t seem to get.
There was the either a lock down, or there would be a lot of deaths – that's reality not scaremongering.
4 million extra deaths by June 2021 in India.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57888460
TBH it's pretty clear this Labour government has saved us already.
Kin oath bro. Look across the ditch at the Omni shambles scumo and gladyator have gifted oz.
Whether Hendy is right or wrong, I am not sure what the point of marching him out on stage was.
Anti vaxxers are not going to be frightened into getting the jab.
Of course not. But what about a vaccine passport to reward those who jab up?
The number of deaths per week is currently 994 in the United Kingdom.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths
Why, that would merely be a hundred a week in NZ! Perfectly acceptable toll to exchange for a jaunt to Melbourne over the weekend /sarc
It's a scaremongering model aimed at getting people vaxed and under control. I've got no problem getting people vaxed, but you don't need to do it like this.
There's no way this model stacks up, just like his previous one where 70-80k were going to die. It got laughed at then, and now.
Jesus christ you guys need to get some new lies.
Hendy's model at the start of the pandemic was spectacularly accurate on for the measures we actually imposed: 20-odd deaths projected vs the 27 we are at 18 months later.
Your argument that the upper-level projection for if no measures were imposed and people in no way changed their behaviour even by personal choice (pubs as usual, nobody masking, nobody staying in more often) is pretty bold in the face of that track record.
At some point it might look like you pricks are deliberately trying to undermine the covid19 response for some perverted reason of your own.
I think I should start moderating ignorant fools who make assertions about stuff they clearly don’t understand and know nothing about. Would you like to be first because you’ve had form in the past as a troll?
Always suspected that infused had the wrong prefix.
I follow, to rebut, a couple of MB with anti vaxxers of the worst (ie pull out dubious links to all kinds of things being attributed to the vaccine), and in some cases sad, kind. Just this morning we have had a spate of this 'under control' saying. Perhaps this is the new 'orders' or perhaps they are still taking seriously that the vaccinated have had trackers or magnets inserted.
They are pests what ever the reason this 'under control' saying has surfaced.
Each to our own and I accept that there will be vaccine hesitant (don't leave it too long!) and the immuno compromised.
Statistics, like models, are only as good as their bikinis: what they show is revealing, but what they hide is essential.
At this time Denmark is getting about 300 cases per day and 2 deaths per day (last weekly average) 2 per day = 730 deaths per year – probably near to the realms of acceptability. The case load of 300 per day is much more than our health system can handle but overall it's getting a lot closer. I fear New Zealand's problem will be the anti-vaccine crowd. Strategy on getting the highest possible % vaccinated will be crucial.
Direct payment ? – To be attractive though this would be very expensive probably better would be……
Those vaccinated go into a daily draw live on tv (very heavily advertised) say five 1 million dollar prizes for two or three months (pretty cheap IMO …given the other costs we have had to wear)
I can’t open the reply on Open Mike but in reply to Bearded Git et al if you check out Rodney Jones on Jack Tame last Sunday he is very much of the leftist persuasion saying that neo liberalism has let down the bottom of the socio demographic and was opposed to Auckland shift to L3 while there were still cases in the community. Not quite the rabid righty economist. His opposition to the 7000 deaths was that it was a bit of scare mongering and thought it may be counter-productive.
We have plenty of ICU beds in normal circumstances and it is misleading to compare countries because we have strong palliative care systems but the USA for one intubates and ventilates at a far lower threat level than we do, probably because of threat of legal action and also greed, milking the insurance companies, who often have ownership of hospitals, sounds counterintuitive but with premiums being a percentage of cost, the more cost the higher the premiums.
A good comparison between countries would be total death rates per annum, at the moment we may well be a few thousand in credit, the reason being that Covid may only be a co- morbidity factor even in younger deaths.
Plenty of ICU beds, really?
We lack ICU nurses, and treatment to save life is not the same as palliative care – is it really common for other nations to use ICU bed nurses to manage palliative care in hospital?
We usually have 500 flu deaths a year and a bit of pressure on the health system late winter from this.
The combination of coronavirus and flu spread is something our health system will struggle to cope with next year (the novavax booster may come with an incorpoirated flu vaccine …).
International travel is dead regardless. Even if you open the borders most people don't wanna travel so airlines won't be breaking even.
New strains will mean we'll probably need to get a vax every other year.
Lockdowns and restrictions may just be something we have to get used to for the foreseeable future.
Yes. Regarding international travel, Im sure travel insurance for covid is still not covered. We can get care in Australia and UK under our reciprocal and similar systems.
Not sure how places like France work for that.
But as usual the clueless will get caught out with out any insurance at all, because they are young and bulletproof..cue Givealittle for a $75,000 bill
I think it will boom again as soon as we are out of this for about a year, then settle back down in part because business travel expenses are going to get harder to justify the business insurance risks. Is this business trip really really necessary? The scrutiny Minister Shaw got was remarkably small, but it's going to get louder as infection criticism intensifies.
Once we are stable as a society again, we need to generate some posts on the decreasing necessity of travel full stop. That includes commuting to work, inter-city travel, Australasian travel. and the general substitution of analogue for ditigal exchange of people and ideas as a result of COVID, business risk calculation, and climate budgeting together.,
We have a few months to wait and see what happens to the countries which opened up, while we get our vacines rate up.
This should prove useful when making a policy decision.
But while we are waiting can we at least open up more MIQ rooms?. This is very poor govt management.
They're playing it safe because of need to isolate locals if the community spread continues. The issue to come, is if (and when) we allow those vaccinated to come into home isolation.
Every expansion in MIQ facilities and returnees increases risk. Apart from the limited number of suitable facilities and staff.
Perhaps there has been modeling of the level of risk vs number of returnees and the present levels of entrants is being deliberately kept below that level as acceptable risk?
I think the limiting factor is capacity, i.e., the ability to manage the numbers without burning out (thousands of) staff and managing risk at the same time.
Extra rooms are being opened in Christchurch.
I agree their handling of this part is a mess – if you are trying to get in.
Those trying to enter are suffering for the good of the 5 million. I appreciate them.
I have this nagging feeling that Jacinda going in to bat for Hendy's theory may backfire.
People don't respond well to the use of fear tactics
Cr, Re- listen to Jacinda's comments. "This is one point of view and we have a team of modellers and we consider all their advice. Advice is not set in stone… it changes according to variables."
As a small-c conservative her instincts have guided her well through nearly two terms now. She doesn't take un-calculated gambles.
Nor do I see Jacinda as coldly calculating to use a fear tactic. Maybe I am dumb, but I see this fear-tactic meme as a right-wing construction, aimed at destroying the empathy many NZers feel with Jacinda's personal characteristics.
John Key's popularity used to annoy us lefties, and mocking Righties accused us of having 'Key Derangement Syndrome' (KDS).
Could some of the decriers of ruthless fear tactics actually be developing a new phenomenon? Jacinda Ardern Kindness Aversion Syndrome Subversion?
Ardern's resolute adherence to science-based policy advice makes her emotional feel increasingly like Helen Clark in tone. The Ardern Prime Ministership doesn't look like a whole bunch of fun.
.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/kahu/covid-19-coronavirus-maori-and-pasifika-should-have-been-prioritised-for-vaccines-experts/LQJ5PBVJNIOIGY5PNY5DAC7FEU/
“Māori health experts say the age-based approach baked inequities into the Covid-19 vaccine rollout and giving Māori and Pasifika vaccination priority could have dampened the Delta outbreak. A Rotorua district health board member and Whānau Ora representative says the rollout typified a “back of the queue, back of the bus” approach to Māori.
The Ministry of Health says the vaccine sequencing was established to vaccinate those most at risk first and it is working to boost Māori and Pasifika rates.
Massey University Te Pūmanawa Hauora Māori Health and Development Research centre director Professor Chris Cunningham said more than half of the Māori population was under 30, a statistic linked to a lower life expectancy than the general population. When the vaccine plan prioritised over-30s above younger people, it effectively excluded more than half the Māori population, Cunningham said.
The median age for Māori is about 26 years.
The age distribution in NZ is a result of inequity, then when they use age as the entrance criteria it replicates the inequity … it’s crazy.”
Cunningham said if Māori and Pasifika had been prioritised in Group 1 of the vaccine rollout “we would have made better progress”. “You shouldn’t use age as a criterion uncritically.”…He said prioritising Māori and Pasifika could have helped prevent the spread of Delta.”
………………………………
If the Māori/Pasifika vax rate in Wellington CCDHB is low, I’m rather bewildered by this. When I went to my local Medical Centre to get my free annual flu shot (these work: It’s been well over a decade since I last had flu) I asked the Practice Nurse how long should I wait before getting my Covid jabs?
By then, according to media reports, the vaccine rollout had reached my age bracket (65+) & we should around then be getting contacted to book our jabs.
The nurse said: “Two weeks. But it will be some off yet before you get contacted for you Covid jabs. Wellington DHB is giving priority to Māori & Pasifika people first.”
Capital & Coast DHB was dragging its feet, we thought. Perhaps not enuf supply? Other DHBs were reportedly well on their thru the 65+ cases. It was actually the evening of the very day Ardern stated at her midday press conference that all people 65 and over had now been contacted that I got 2 texts inviting me to book my jabs. (1 from the DHB & 1 from my local Medical Centre.)
I guess all DHBs were doing their own thing. Certainly seems like Wellington’s was prioritising Māori & Pasifika folk. It wasn’t clear though whether they were doing it across the board or in age brackets?
In public policy terms I don't think I've ever seen a faster and clearer advantage of helping Maori and Pasifika because they were the ones that it was in all our interests to help.
It would not be unreasonable for Prime Minister Ardern to make that point/Along with every Maori and Pasifika health NGO.
Sometimes white privilege is a pain in the ass.
“The Ministry of Health is rethinking its approach to saliva testing, after key medical and lab testing bodies make major changes to their position, with one citing a study showing New Zealanders are reluctant to take Covid-19 nasal swab tests.
The New Zealand Microbiology Network has reversed its own call from less than six months ago, and now believes saliva testing is accurate enough to be used as a substitute for nasal swabs. However, its preferred method is still the nasal swab…
International Accreditation New Zealand (Ianz) has also changed the certification attached to some saliva testing labs, opening the door for saliva tests to be used as a substitute for nasal swabs at medical clinics, if labs can present enough evidence their test has been properly validated.
…NZ First leader Winston Peters has slammed the ministry for not getting saliva testing in place more widely, and faster, despite the Simpson Roche report recommending it last year.
“By March 2021 we should have been totally been on top of it … these sorts of things, costs and delays, and lack of validation as to what they’re using as a system, is just unconscionable at this point in time,” Peters says. “I’m not trying to be obstructive, I’m trying to find out why on Earth would you have taken that course of action.”
A saliva testing contract for border workers has been mired in behind the scenes controversy.
A spokeswoman for the Ministry of Health says it is reviewing its position on saliva testing on the back of the Microbiology Network’s changed position. The ministry’s position has changed in recent months from scepticism to now being “confident” saliva testing could identify Covid-19 cases early.
The Microbiology Network also admits there is a real possibility people have not been getting tested for Covid-19 because saliva testing has not been available.
Groundbreaking Kiwi scientist Dr Anne Wyllie helped develop the SalivaDirect test at the Yale University’s School of Public Health.
[Her colleague] Steph Tan has provided the Government with research indicating saliva testing could be as accurate as nasal swabs, and better at early detection, along with cost comparisons showing that, while nasal swab testing might cost up to $200 per test, saliva testing with the SalivaDirect method costs less than $7 per test. Figures provided under the Official Information Act indicate each nasal swab test costs the taxpayer $138.
Wyllie says the true proof is that their protocol has been validated overseas, and has been used to control outbreaks.”
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126419825/covid19-uturn-on-saliva-testing-as-fears-grow-around-nasal-swab-hesitancy
Be good if we can move to a lot more use of saliva testing. I haven’t needed to get a nasal swab, thank goodness. Those getting them shown on TV sure look like they’re enjoying the procedure.
And I’d hate to have to visit a mass testing centre. Hope if I ever need one I can get it done at my GP’s Medical Centre.
+100 much faster and less invasive
“Those getting them shown on TV sure DON’T look like they’re enjoying the procedure.” is what I meant to say. 🙄
Ye, Ad, & I’d hope the kits could be handed over at GP Centres as well as Pop-up Testing Centres.
I know this might be slightly off-topic, but I would be interested to hear people's thoughts on this:
"Antihistamines and azithromycin as a treatment for COVID-19 on primary health care – A retrospective observational study in elderly patients"
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7833340/#!po=34.9057
Does this sound like a promising treatment?
Ask your GP instead of Google.
Sir John Key:
"The aim should no longer be to exist in a smug hermit kingdom, but to get back to a life where New Zealanders can travel overseas – for any reason – knowing they can return home when they want to, and where we again welcome visitors to this country.
These are not radical aims, yet there has been no coherent plan shared with the public for when or how these might be achieved. The only urgency we've seen for months is an enthusiasm to lock down our country.
…Will you wish that in 2021 the Government had acted with the urgency and creativity that Nasa showed when suddenly having to rethink its approach to the Apollo 13 mission? Nasa succeeded. It proved that to get a different outcome, you need a different strategy."
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-sir-john-key-5-ideas-to-transform-our-approach/PJH3TEOR6WEVADOOHWLKFBVK74/
Sometimes I miss John Key. At least he writes well:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-sir-john-key-5-ideas-to-transform-our-approach/PJH3TEOR6WEVADOOHWLKFBVK74/
Snap! See above.
I'm confident the government is actually considering all those factors Key mentions, and is making plans.
But while the situation is still as fluid as it is right now, talking in detail about things that are still months away simply hands out ammo for petty gotcha politics when the situation inevitably changes and the response needs to change.
I do agree that I would prefer the government to be louder and firmer about our future with vaccine passports, supporting "no jab, no job" policies, vaccination requirements for schools etc. So that dreamers about the "North Korea option" can get a head start on disabusing themselves of that notion.
It's quite impressive how the government is quietly stating it's direction and thinking about how we are going to handle the controlled infection of our population by covid, and the opposition groups are then coming along and calling for those exact steps to be taken. All of a sudden someone does a poll and the Government has 80%+ approval ratings.
The no jab, no entry thing to licensed premises could be interesting, the one next door to us wouldn't have any staff if their staff's compliance of masking is any indication, masks were around the chin after a day, around the neck the next and gone completely the next. No worries about the 50 / 100 punter limit though, lucky to have 20.
Yeah, the government is slipping talk about vaccine passports etc into the talk in a low-key way, and good for them for doing it. To my taste, I'd rather they were louder and firmer about it. But hey, they're the political experts, and I'm not.
I'm gobsmacked at just how incoherent and disorganised "the opposition" really is. Which doesn't actually serve us as a nation. There really are reasonable and nuanced criticisms of our response that could be made, and reasonable alternatives proposed. But that's not happening, all we're getting is knee-jerk thoughtless swipes that are so obviously clueless spur-of-the-moment brainfarts that it's just background noise that most people just tune out.
Dunno what to make of the masking thing. Masking around my area and where I work is pretty good, even though both those areas are well away from where the ongoing infections are happening. But if it were Queenstown that was locked down in level 3 and no infections anywhere else, I'd imagine masking around here would be quite minimal. All to do with the immediacy of the perceived risk.
You also have to ignore the deafening voices of tens of thousands of New Zealanders who are having their citizenship compromised by being stranded overseas. A very few of them manage to get back when public servants in Wellington decide whose plight is desperate enough to be rewarded with a golden ticket to MIQ.
Yup that's us. We're not making a noise about it – but the hard truth is that my elderly father has been isolated and stranded in a rest home for going on 2 yrs now. It's been very hard on him, and rough on my conscience – and while we could technically make it back to NZ – there is zero chance we could return to our lives and incomes in Australia.
Also interestingly if these restrictions continue to impact travel there arises a problem with the restrictions on voting eligibility for New Zealand permanent residents and citizens who have to have 'visited' New Zealand with the past 12 months or 3 years respectively. This was always an irksome niggle because it effectively required us to spend money on an airfare and travel costs in order to vote.
As Key calls it the 'hermit kingdom' COVID approach will have the effect of even further disenfranchising even more New Zealanders living overseas than before if it entails a minimum of two weeks in MIQ simply to exercise a fundamental democratic right.
My sympathies for your father's situation.
Before ma passed away in a Rest Home & Hospital in Tawa last April 2020 during L4 lockdown I was only able to talk to her on the phone until she lost the ability & strength to handle phone calls.
Ma was 94 when she died. She refused to let me teach her the internet. She'd got by all those years without ever needing computer & was a very strong-minded woman all her life. It meant we couldn't video call.
Are you at least able to video call your dad?
I have a Dunedin mother-in-law who never learned to use a cellphone, let alone the internet. She's shifted into geriatric hospital care just after Auckland went into lockdown, and we've not been able to see her since lockdown. Hopefully soon ……
I had a weeny win with ma on that score; talked her into getting a mobile & dhe never regretted it.
I had to put all of her contacts in for her, but she knew how to dial mobile & landline numbers from it if she needed to.
It was an early Samsung clamshell type model. I gave up expecting her to text from it. She couldn't get the hang of the options (like "add number" to select the recipient. "But they're already in there?" And she wouldn't practice by sending texts to her own number, like I did. "I'm too busy" 😀
She used it as a mobile telephone onl, but made plenty of use of it when out & about.
How old's your mum-in-law, Ad?
Sounded OK on the telephone last night which the Dunedin Hospital staff get to her, thanks. Not sure where to next for her yet.
If it's anything like the situation in Welly, you'll likely need to yourself find a Rest Home & Hospital for her. We had to check out all those in Welly who offered Hospital-level care, not just Rest Home-level.
Then up to us to check them out on the net, and visit those who had places available, before signing up to one.
Yes the staff organise a call every few weeks. He can't see much anymore and his hearing isn't the best – and pretty much all we can do is to try and reassure him we haven't forgotten and we do care.
Sometimes he rambles on for two hours or more and it leaves us feeling drained and saddened at our inability to be there for him.
And we're the lucky ones – one of my colleagues came over from India early 2019 and has not been able to see his young wife and children for two years now. Like us he's being forced to choose between income and family. Around the world COVID has forced millions into this unpalatable choice.
And this inability to say goodbye is probably the most quietly corrosive element to this entire pandemic.
Thanks for the support. None of us are on our own in this it seems.
That would make you one of our more committed voters.
Looks like his investments in Air New Zealand and Auckland Airport are hurting a tad.
And where does he get the thing about "we are no longer making our way in the world"? I thought our net export receipts and balance of trade were holding up very well.