Written By:
advantage - Date published:
7:29 am, November 7th, 2018 - 101 comments
Categories: Donald Trump, International, us politics -
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Trends and results will come through today and tomorrow about the mid-term elections in this second largest democracy in the world.
It’s a system designed not to change too much too fast; lots of devolved power to its constituent states, which are steered by governors. Plenty of really interesting races there.
Also balancing against strong change is just 35 out of 100 seats in the upper house or Senate are up for the taking this time.
The great big unruly and not hugely powerful House of Representatives has all its seats going for free this time. Although (ahem) nothing in the United States is free.
Will Beto make it against the truly serpentine Cruz in Texas?
Will #MeToo and #TimesUp and #Emily’sList get rewarded with more women getting up there?
Will any pundit or candidate mention climate change in the next 48 hours?
As with LBJ’s rise in Texas so long ago, will we get some juicy ballot box conspiracies to make it all seem so coded, so unreal?
Have the Democrats really commanded the messaging and the values to compel those few unpartisan families to change their vote?
Will stunning economic performance in the economy overrun the vile President Trump’s targeting of migrants – from Central America and elsewhere?
Will Florida overcome its coded racist elements and elect a black man?
Who will be the first pundit on Fox or CNN or MSNBC to say “told ya so”?
Can the United States Constitution still usefully check and balance the functioning of the executive, or is the United States in for a real questioning of its own structures?
Is there enough renewal in the lower ranks of the Democrats, either this time or for next?
Who is starting to look a bit presidential towards a run?
Will Fivethirtyeight get its mojo back, or is RealClearPolitics going to be the Go-To for stats?
All of this, writ large, live before a studio audience, is unfolding over the next 24 hours.
This is probably worth keeping in mind during the hyperbole around today’s midterms…
“Under Obama, Democrats suffer largest loss in power since Eisenhower”
https://www.quorum.us/data-driven-insights/under-obama-democrats-suffer-largest-loss-in-power-since-eisenhower/291/
“The Devastating History Of Midterm Elections”
https://www.npr.org/2014/10/30/360133533/the-devastating-history-of-midterm-elections
Trump losing big today would be more of an historical norm than a sign of a resurgent ‘blue wave’
To echo what you said on another post, it’s so much the result, as what happens within the Democratic Party in the aftermath that counts.
Those progressives that are running are either acknowledged, meaning that the Democratic Party shifts somewhat. Or they’re going to be dismissed as the establishment wing of the party takes all credit for electoral gains to itself.
From lessons across the so-called pond, where msm and “blairites” within Labour circled the wagons against Momentum and Corbyn, (or even here where the likes of Turei and Cunliffe were taken out at the knees) I think we know which scenario is far more likely to unfold.
True that.
It’s funny, for some unknown reason I (naively) never thought that the Liberal infiltrators in the Left would defend their ground so violently, I guess I never really understood that they are as (if not more so) dogmatically tied to their ideology as I am to mine…I suppose I thought they would be..well more laissez-faire about things.
Turns out they would rather burn us all down rather than concede defeat, which is what makes them so dangerous.
Post midterms, Bernie Sanders becomes the most important single person in US politics IMO, what he does and says, and how the Democratic Party hierarchy respond is the difference between Trump being a one term president or going on to a (very scary) second term.
How the Democratic Party hierarchy respond is…well, I think we can safely predict that one đ
How that plays over the next two years viz a viz the prospects for a successful Presidential nominee running on a social democratic (“democratic socialist” being a bit like talking of a “big huge elephant”) or progressive/leftish ticket…
If a Democratic nominee who’s just Republican lite runs for the White House in 2020, then it’s 2016 all over again…except it’ll be taking place further down on that spiral that leads to hell.
Hope this just comes up as a url.
The Young Turks (TYT) election coverage running live on youtube…differentiating between progressives and corporate funded democrats and analysing from that perspective…
Alternatively there is this from the steadfast Democracy Now! and The Intercept doing live coverage….pretty solid crew hosting this one.
https://www.democracynow.org/live/watch_election_night_2018_coverage_with
https://theintercept.com/2018/11/01/live-midterm-election-night-2018-coverage-with-democracy-now-the-intercept/
Government at state level is more important to everyday life in America than the sclerotic federal government in Washington. Hopefully by tomorrow 2/3rds of Americans will have a Democrat governor at the helm of their state legislature.
Hopefully by tomorrow 2/3rds of Americans will have a Democrat governor at the helm of their state legislature.
I hope not. Democrats are vile.
Oil of Clives is vile.
Democrats are vile.
So, you’re saying around 100 million people in the USA are vile? You’re sick man.
Perhaps clive was referring to the DNC not the voters. If so i agree!
Generally the machinery and workings of all political parties doesnât really bear looking at. But at a grassroots level Iâll take the Democrats over the Republicans any day.
Well, today’s Republican party is all about white supremacists, oligarch families, and sociopathic corporates, so I guess Clive fits right in.
edit:
btw, a thread about the party of Lincoln
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1058410836908273666.html
Hang on, didn’t Clinton (and many of her supporters) call some Republican supporters “Deplorable”?
What would you call those who march under tiki torches chanting “Jews will not replace us” and “blood and soil”?
That happened after the 2016 election. Are you implying Clinton had supernatural abilities to foresee what these people were going to do and was ONLY referring to them and not Trump supporters in general?
She said SOME trump supporters are deplorable, so obviously was not referring to trump supporters in general, you said it yourself above. I’m merely saying that some of those who she called “Deplorable” went on to march under tiki torches chanting âJews will not replace usâ and âblood and soilâ, which I would say is pretty deplorable behaviour.
These people kind of made her point for her. It didn’t require her to have supernatural abilities.
What would you call people who chant “blood and soil’, drive into protesters, send mail-bombs and shoot up synagogues?
The trouble is her statement about some Trump supporters (although she didn’t really specify what proportion) being deplorable wqas taken as a slight against ALL Trump supporters just as the Democrats are vile comment is taken by people here as meaning ALL Democrats.
Actually she said half of trump supporters are deplorables so… what are you talking about?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basket_of_deplorables
Also, you still haven’t said what would you call people who chant âblood and soilâ, drive into protesters, send mail-bombs and shoot up synagogues. How would YOU describe this behaviour?
” … Congress has all its seats going for free this time.”
That triggers my inner pedant every time. Sorry, but I can’t help myself on this one.
Congress is the combo deal of the House of Representatives and the Senate put together. It’s the entire legislative branch of government, the House is just part of Congress. While it’s common in the US for someone to refer to their House representative as their Congress(wo)man, it would be equally correct (but very uncommon) to refer to their senators that way.
But in referring to which members of government get elected every two years, it’s very incorrect and confusing to say it’s Congress, it’s only the House of Representatives where every member is up every two years.
Happy to be corrected
Happy to be corrected
Thanks. I feel better now.
Hey Ad. I edited in the correction. Hope you’re okay with that.
Yes
I hope it wasn’t my comments that prompted you to go to that trouble. Inner Pedant’s been firmly shoved back into his kennel where he’s now whimpering and peering cautiously around the corner with one eye.
You might be pleased to learn that your inner pedant has had an effect. After submitting my post on all of this the other day, I had a sudden rush of (not quite) panic, and ran back through the post changing all mentions of “congress” to “senate”.
Same mistake as Ad but different.
And not something I’d have been even vaguely aware of if it hadn’t been for an exchange with you in the past.
Odd how (I dare say) ‘most people’ outside the US view the political structure as something akin to a plate of spaghetti with a President placed on top. đ
Shhhh, don’t encourage it. I find pedants as irritating as the next person. Every time mine slips the leash I give myself a round of self-flagellation, after I’ve rounded it back up again.
Andre, you’ve been invaluable at this time. Thank you.
Sorry but your work is not done, the Herald is reporting a narrow lead to the Democrats in Congress seats.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12155993
Noooooooo. Don’t. Just … just … don’t.
It will be interesting to see if a higher voter turnout impacts on the races at state level – Democrats have struggled at mid-terms (and thus increasing numbers of red states with voter suppression and gerrymandering) because of lower voter turnouts.
If Democrats are to do better in future elections – already the common wisdom is they need to win by 5 points to get a majority in the House, they have to win back the democracy at the state level.
Could very well be a case of “so close, yet so far’ for the Democrats in most races. I’m not expecting too much here.
Thereâs talk building that Democrat Kamala Harris, the junior Senator from California is gearing up for a run in 2020.
“Reports of long lines at polling stations are coming in from across the country. At a polling place in Snellville, Georgia, more than 100 people took turns sitting in childrenâs chairs and on the floor as they waited in line for hours.”
Hours??…why do Americans tolerate such appalling organisation…deliberate or not.
And where there is no early voting they make them do it on a work day when most of the working class cannot easily do so.
Laws around voting are state responsibilities so Democrats need to win gubernatorial races and at state level in order affect change.
my understanding is that state legislation can be challenged by public remit and is then voted on by community …..how difficult to propose improvement to process irrespective of who’s in power?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposition_(politics)
If New York, which has the third to lowest voter turnout in America, is anything to go by, I very much doubt the Democrats are the answer to fighting voter suppression. Though I’m sure the optics of fighting voter suppression would convince some folk.
Its an amazingly complicated situation, but put simply, you could say its a case of the NY Democrats suppressing Democrat voters. Which may seems bizarre if you are unfamiliar with the mindset of The Democrats, but it’s all about maintaining the status quo and stalling any Progressive takeover.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/12/opinion/new-york-primary-election-go-vote.html?module=inline
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/07/19/opinions/democrats-need-reform-new-york-primary-weaver/index.html
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/09/new-yorks-worst-in-the-country-voting-system/570223/
the historically low voter turnout is part of the problem and the two problems reinforce each other (an increasing problem in democracies)….but as I note in my reply to Sabine the mechanism appears to be there to rectify the situation if (small d) democrats got organised and hadnt condoned the gerrymandering via inaction for decades…..I not saying it would be easy or wouldnt attract every obstacle the politicians could place in its way but it appears accepted and immoveable.
Because deliberate voter suppression is neatly self-reinforcing. The best way to stop it is to voter for state governments that won’ do it. Oh wait, l think there’s a problem with that tactic.
To be fair voting can be a fairly time consuming business in all the larger democracies. Weâre just lucky weâre small here in NZ which makes it relatively painless and quick. The set up in America though with full House of Reps elections every 2 years does make it seem like theyâre trooping into the polling booth every 5 minutes.
Well actually they don’t tolerate it at all, but there is not much they can do other then go to court.
Georgia is funny, Brian Kemp who is running for governor is also repsonsible for the election process. Yes, the man running for office is the man who will count the votes. Its ok if you are a republican. So today there were electronic voting machines that got delivered to predominantly black/democratic voting sites without cables, running on battery ……, or Mr. Kris Kobach of the election fraud investigation initiated by Trump and just recently disbanded for failure to produce any election fraud, who closed down the one 1 ! polling station in a town of Kansas who is predominantly hispanic and democratic.
Or in brooklyn, were one 1! machine worked and all others did not.
I think they call it voter suppression and they do it in states that are republican or republican gerrymandered so that even if Democrats were to win a majority of votes the republicans would still win.
But lets not talk about this……….lets talk about how the left needs to unify, get more guts, and be more like the others …..
Am aware of the accusations (and many examples of factual) of gerrymandering but that is the point,…there appears opportunity and process to wind back such action and greatly lessen the political machines ability to serve themselves rather than the electorate.
If they would but use it.
you can’t really do much if you are gerrymandered into oblivion.
So no i am not talking about ‘accusations’ i am talking about facts that in the states the dems in quite a few places can have more votes and still not win.
And if you don’t win, you can’t change it as one is not in charge. Hence, Gorgia, where a candidate for governor is responsible for counting votes, for any a nd all electoral issues and who is on record of having ‘officially’ suppressed about 10% of the voting populations, on issues that have been cut down repeatedly by courts, and who two days before election charges his opponents with electoral fraud because one of her volunteers reported a glitch in a computer system.
and that is just one example
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/26/18024468/georgia-voter-suppression-stacey-abrams-brian-kemp-voting-rights
again….
“A proposition is also a measure or proposed legislation “proposed” to the members of a legislature or to voters, in a direct popular plebiscite, for their approval. In the US American phenomenon of popular plebiscites, propositions can take the form of an initiative or a referendum; for example, see the list of California ballot propositions.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposition_(politics)
The rules vary from state to state. While living there, I got a bit familiar with the rules in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Wisconsin, and California. Of those, only in California were Propositions part of the general political atmosphere. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are on the most difficult end of the spectrum for citizens pushing changes from the bottom up. Perhaps not coincidentally, gerrymandering problems in those two states have got a lot of publicity recently.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initiatives_and_referendums_in_the_United_States
Those folks in queues beset by poor weather will be glad of affordable healthcare I imagine đ
Go women, minorities, students! Be counted.
This is a common sight in polling queues. Guess who they might vote for…
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/15731e472b9ce32fab873dd6338a5c0a?width=650
simon bridges by chance?
I’m guessing they have only one day to vote over there.
How lucky are we in NZ to have the 2 weeks of advance voting.
I do find it interesting that the democrat’s don’t really have a ‘leader’ to represent them, rather they call on Obama. Bring back Bernie!
Trying to follow it across various networks, however am not sure the demo’s will get the landslide they want.
The voting registration stories coming out are deeply concerning, including this from Georgia, dodgy Kemp.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/11/stacey-abrams-georgia-democrats-decry-brian-kemp-hacking-claim-181105164717142.html
Around 40 million have cast their votes early Cinny (I gather that that is an all time record for early voting in mid-terms) – again it depends on each state just how easy that is to do.
That’s awesome news.
Not only are you wrong about early voting in the States (as pointed out by Macro) you have also missed that Sanders has been campaigning heavily for Democratic candidates outside his home state.
Are you willing to acknowledge how wrong you were about Clinton/Deplorables before attempting out to pile on another commenter?
Ahhh… no. Clinton labeled 50 percent of Trump supporters as deplorable. How she worked that out is anyone’s guess.
You said:
My apologies, she did state half of Trumps supporters (Which means over 30 million people) were deplorable. This doesn’t detract from my whole point in that complaining about someone labeling Democrats as vile while seemingly ignoring Clinton doing something similar to half of the GOP support base is hypocrisy.
Hypocrisy eh? Something similar except; she said half, the commenter was broadly dismissive of a whole party. Also you sound like you’re saying ‘But Clinton did it too’…
Anyway back to my point (that you keep ignoring), how would YOU describe people who chant âblood and soilâ, drive into protesters, send mail-bombs and shoot up synagogues?
The people who chant âblood and soilâ, drive into protesters, send mail-bombs and shoot up synagogues are nowhere near 50% of Trump’s supporter base. These are an incredibly small minority of people. Unless you think that Suicide bombers represent a significant proportion of Muslims do you?
Still waiting for what you would call them.
These goalposts of yours are constantly shifting.
This ‘incredibly small minority’ (which appears to have been galvanised into increased activity since 2015), who march with tiki torches chanting “Jews will not replace us”, send mail-bombs etc. etc. what do YOU call them? How would YOU describe them?
A hard core extremist minority. Some of them are not even Trump supporters like the man responsible for the killings at the Synagogue .
Thank you for finally answering the question though as expected you have minimised the abject awfulness of these people.
Robert Bowers (synagogue shooter) didn’t support trump because he was ‘too soft on Jews’. He was driven to murder over his concerns about the ‘caravan’ that trump has been hyping up whilst campaigning.
Guam voted, D for Governor – a women . First flip of the country.
Lou Leon Guerrero and and her running mate Josh Tenorio.
also this
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/judge-orders-harris-county-keep-polling-locations-open-extra-hour/
Texas: nine polling places to stay open longer cause they failed to open on time.
twitter feed on issues at polling sites
and yes the Border Patrol training exercise in crwod control in El Paso was ‘cancelled’ as obviously it was a bit to obvious in the ned đ
https://twitter.com/AriBerman/status/1059890523610193921?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1059890523610193921&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstory%2F2018%2F11%2F6%2F1810496%2F-Voter-suppression-round-up-Where-are-things-going-wrong
in fact this is a good rundown just in general
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/11/6/1810496/-Voter-suppression-round-up-Where-are-things-going-wrong
yes, its from the great orange satan Daily Kos.
ABC stream, because CNN is shit.
Georgia, Georgia,
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/11/equipment-malfunctions-and-voting-machine-shortages-bring-long-lines-in-georgia/
makes a mockery of the voting process.
heh
538 has suddenly spiked the Republican’s chances of retaining the house.
Shades of 2016.
Say it isn’t so …
Yup 2 in 5 Dem, 3 in 5 Rep winning the House.
Now its 4 in 7 Dem, 3 in 7 Rep.
Tight.
Now it is swinging back …
Looks like TYT prediction of a Blue tidal wave was WAY off the mark.
Hang on Gosman no need to call it yet. House is looking like it will change.
I never stated it wouldn’t. TYT show predicted that the swing to the Democrats would be much greater than just a 20 or so seat flip.
Yup.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LahmIKPvhYk
annoying clip editing and all that…but its the only one I could find.
Not WAY off Gosman. Wa-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a–a-y OFF. đ
The Democrats will be grateful that the gerrymandering in Pennsylvania was reviewed. It would have been tight if that had not happened.
McGrath, Nelson and Gillum losing.
cruz is gonna lose … you can do it Texas
Looking like a <5 seat majority for the Democrats. Functionally once you get down to low single digits, it's effectively a “hung house”, as marginal Congressmen from either side cannot be relied upon to submit to party discipline.
I suspect the Repugs will find it easier to enforce party discipline on their wavering marginals. They’ve seen the example of Jeff Flake and they won’t want to risk the wrath of the rotting halloween pumpkin.
Rowan county gets a new clerk. You’ll probably recall the incumbent went to jail for being a homophobe:
https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/elections/kentucky/2018/11/06/kentucky-election-anti-gay-marriage-clerk-kim-davis-loses/1910208002/
That was really interesting, just caught up with my neighbour, back from the USA, he works over there for a couple of months every year.
Most people over there are reasonably happy with Trump at the moment, this time last year not so much, but currently they are.
Don’t think there will be a ‘blue wave’
However…. COME ON TEXAS
Eight* of the Senate seats have been called for the Repugs, so there’s really no chance now the Dems will win the Senate. So that means two more years of the Repugs being able to confirm gargoyle RWNJs to judgeships and Cabinet positions.
*if you’re looking at the Mississippi special seat and seeing Espy (D) ahead, that doesn’t mean anything. If nobody gets over 50% there’s another runoff election between the top two, so McDaniel’s (R) 18% will almost all go to Hyde-Smith (R), pushing him well over 50%.
Good speech from Ocasio-Cortez at the moment live on The Intercept.
Damn. Just finished.
The Voter Fraud fraudster Kris Kobach loses his bid for Kansas governor. Since that means he’s now free for Genghis Don to pick him up for a Cabinet position, it may be a case of careful what you wish for.
For mine the picture of perhaps the vilest Trump clone Kris Kobach fall back in his own shit in the Kansas gubernatorial contest is so, so, so delicious ! Might just have another lusty squirt of Countdown’s Ridge Merlot Cabernet…..
The Republicans have 50 senate seers with 11 to go so the best we can hope for is a hung senate and that means the , mic rats have to pick up all the remaining seats.
Nope, the Repugs have control with only 50 seats. Because if there’s a tie, the Vice President (Pence) gets to cast a deciding vote.
Jesus, these results are confusing! Doesn’t help that the goodies are blue and the baddies are red. I keep cheering for the reds out of habit. đ
Cortez for President in 2020
It’ll be 2024 before she’s old enough to be eligible. She’ll have just turned 35 a few weeks before Election Day.
I had no idea there was an age restriction for standing for the President of the US.
Why? When? Who?
OK just googled it.
It seems when it suits the establishment, this is not a hard and fast rule. Being rather spotty in its implementation.
“No person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty-five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.”
That’s in Article 2, Section 1 of the Constitution. So it’s part of the original bit that’s never been amended. Good luck with getting a waiver around that that would allow her to be seated in 2021, having run and won in 2020 as a 31 year old. Remember there’s now a majority of rabidly partisan Supreme Court justices that would be just itching to disqualify her for any hokied-up reason, let alone having a rock-solid constitutional reason right in front of them.
I think I must live in a bubble. I’m a bit stunned in the light of the racism, sexism and actual hardcore terrorism associated with this campaign, that Trump has not been outright rejected. And look how normal they’ve all been trying so hard to make it in the nights election coverage.
Are they (majority) really that fucking jaded?
Kindness.
Kindness gets the house đ <= see what I did there.
The Syrianisation of the world.
Just as the triumph of fascism in Spain, preceded the rise of fascism internationally
Assad massacres hundreds of thousands, and no one bats an eye.
The Israelis cite Syria as an example worse than them, when they gun down unarmed protesters at the Israeli Gaza frontier..
In a copy of the Israelis, Trump threatens to gun down South American migrants at the Mexican border.
The Nigerian military rulers cite trump to gun down protesters.
And so it goes…
Along with rigged decks, would guess that the swamp is about near the limits of hysteria it can create, without going into anarchy, against the Trump presidency so americans are basically holding the line – which i’d say is good.
Would also be bi-partisanly positive, if the Democrats were able to come together next time also in contributing a voting block that had a decent idea of what it was voting for as well in the US system too overall.
The incumbents also have a classy first lady powder keg that is relatively dry still, so all up, while not the prior two victorys, would put this outcome in the Trump win column again.
Next time Beto, next time.
Which “next time” are you thinking of?