UK Labour – can they finally beat the Tories?

Written By: - Date published: 9:19 am, January 30th, 2023 - 18 comments
Categories: Austerity, Brexit, electoral systems, First Past the Post, Jeremy Corbyn, uk politics - Tags: , , , , , , ,

Originally posted on Nick Kelly’s blog

Labour in the UK currently has a double-digit lead in polls ahead of the Conservatives. The Polls immediately after the Truss/Kwarteng mini budget gave Labour their biggest lead ever, with a lead of 33% over the Tories. This has since fallen back to a 20% lead, still making Labour the strong favourites were an election to be called today. For this reason, there will be no election in the next year if the Conservatives have anything to do with it. The next election must be held at the latest in January 2025, and in all likelihood will be sometime in mid-2024. Given how terribly the Government has performed, it is hard to see how they could make it back even if the economy begins to recover.

However, just as one should never underestimate the UK Conservative Party as an electoral force, one also should never underestimate the UK Labour Party’s ability to clutch defeat from the jaws of history. It is just under two years ago that Labour under the current leadership of Keir Starmer lost the Hartlepool byelection, a so-called red-wall seat previously held by Labour since 1964. Much has happened since then but given how quickly things change in the current political climate, who knows what will be happening in 2024.

After the last UK election, I wrote a series of posts assessing why the UK Labour Party Lost. Shortly after this, a leaked report showed that factionalism was so bad within Labour that members of the Party head office tried to sabotage the 2017 election for the party as their favoured faction was not in charge. At the time few could see Labour making it back to power in 2024, with many predicting that Boris Johnson would be Prime Minister for the coming decade.

Writing those posts got me some interesting feedback. My post critical of the role of the ‘Blairite faction’ resulted in various Labour members associated with Progress and Labour First contacting me to say that I was obviously an insane Corbynista and dangerous. Later that day I posted another post critical of the role Momentum had played in the 2019 election, to which various supporters of the Corbyn loyal faction accused me of being a Blairite and a dangerous right winger. Whilst it was water off a ducks back to me, it showed how deeply divided and unwilling to engage all factions were at that time.

Starmer was elected Leader of the party in April 2020 having run on a platform of trying to bring the factions together. Specifically, Starmer’s campaign would continue the popular policies from Labour’s 2017 manifesto would be the ‘basis of the Party’s ‘foundational document’ for policy under his leadership. This recognised the fact that whilst Corbyn and the Momentum faction supporting him had become quite unpopular, the social democratic platform Labour ran on in 2017 was popular, more so than the party in itself. Now, in 2022, Starmer has said this document is being put to one side and instead the party will be “starting from scratch” leaving many to ask, what will Labour’s next policy manifesto look like?

The backdrop of course is the coronavirus pandemic and the economic chaos it has caused, followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Added to this is the economic ineptitude of the Truss and Kwateng mini-budget has meant the UK find itself in a very difficult economic situation. The challenge for Labour now, is that it needs to be seen both as credible economic managers who can repair the damage caused by the current government, yet also present a programme that addresses growing inequalities. In particular, it needs to address the fact that most people under 40 in the UK are now significantly worse off financially than their parents were at that age. The younger voters who supported Labour in the 2017 ‘youthquake’, who were disproportionately disadvantaged after the last decade of austerity, are looking to the opposition to address the growing inequalities and to create a new social contract that works “for the many, not the few.”

It is not clear how the current Labour leadership will address this, with the prevailing thinking in the party now being that people on the left have nowhere else to go, and the priority for Labour now being to win former Tory voters over. The risk is that younger voters and voters on the left become disillusioned and stay at home, or cast a protest vote for The Greens or some other candidate. This may not seem a problem now, but if polls begin to narrow by 2024, stay-home or protest-left votes in a First Past the Post electoral system could be fatal in marginal constituencies.

The current Labour leadership wish to put as much daylight as possible between the Party now and the Corbyn years. This has meant distancing themselves from some of the more popular parts of the 2017 manifesto, including public ownership of rail, energy companies and other public services, despite most party members and the British Public favouring nationalisation in this area. Starmer and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves have said such policies do not stack up against the Party’s fiscal rules. This could create tension for a future Labour Government. Internally, the Government would be fighting both the ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ left on these issues. Also, many voters, not only those who vote Labour, would become frustrated if the private companies continue to profit from a rail system that’s expensive and unreliable or an energy market that forces people into poverty.

At the same time, those on the left of Labour need to accept a few hard facts. The 2019 election defeat was a devastating loss caused in no small part by missteps, poor tactics and wrong policy calls by Corbyn, his advisors and Momentum. Also, Labour may have increased its vote considerably in 2017, but despite losing seats, the Tories also increased their overall percentage of the vote and got more votes than Labour.

Jeremy Corbyn’s suspension from the party has seen hundreds of members, including many branch chairs, have their membership also suspended for allowing motions of solidarity with Corbyn to be moved. Corbyn’s comments in response to the antisemitism report were ill-advised, but so too has been this clumsy night of the long knives against his supporters in the party. The party has suspended members or excluded them from MP selecton for sharing articles from proscribed organisations, mostly socialist. In the case of one Milton Keynes Councillor Lauren Townsend, she was blocked from standing as an MP for liking a tweet about Sturgeon testing negative for Covid-19, hardly an act of supporting a political rival. Labour also expelled filmmaker Ken Loach, maker of ‘I, Daniel Blake’, again for associating with proscribed organisations rather than actually belonging to them.

Corbyn has done himself absolutely no favours with his frankly idiotic position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, calling on the west to stop arming Ukraine and aligning with the Stop the War coalition’s position which appears more critical of NATO than Russia. This has now made it very easy for Starmer’s team to say that Corbyn will not have the whip restored. The left has now spent two years wasting energy trying to defend Corbyn and campaigning for him to get the whip restored. This absolutely plays into the hands of their opponents who now have good reason to expel leftists for not showing solidarity with Ukrainians.

Compare this to the US Democrats where Jo Biden’s former rival Bernie Sanders is now chair of the Senate Budget Committee, and a clear pact was made between the left and the moderate factions of the party to help beat Trump in 2020. Electoral politics is about building coalitions. The left in the UK needs to accept they alone do not have majority support and need to work with what they term the “soft left” and more centrist factions to win. The current Labour leadership need to ensure that the left still has a stake in Labour winning, and give enough to motivate the left to vote and campaign for Labour. In 2020 the Democrats learnt the hard lessons from 2016 when Sanders supporters were shunned by Hillary, resulting in many not supporting her campaign after the primaries and ultimately allowing Trump to win. In 2020, the Biden campaign made sure the left had a stake in a Democrat victory, and it paid off.

The fact is that to win elections, especially in a First Past the Post electoral system, a party needs to build a coalition of support. In 1997, UK Labour was able to build a coalition which in addition to the people who’d supported it throughout the Thatcher years, voters who’d supported the Thatcher project and its broad economic programme, but by the mid-1990s wanted something new, more socially liberal and slightly more moderate economically. This coalition held for three elections, but in 2010 many from this group of voters had drifted to the Lib Dems under Nick Clegg or back to the Conservatives under David Cameron who promised a more socially liberal and compassionate conservative party.

Starmer and the faction around want to build back the same coalition of voters they had in 1997. The problem is 25 years later, which included a decade of austerity, the voter demographics are more polarised and complex. The Conservative Party in 2022 has been forced to abandon Thatcher economics that Truss and Kwarteng tried to resurrect from the dead, and instead are now raising taxes, including for top income earners. The so-called centre-ground in politics is not the same as that in 1997. In fact, the term ‘centre’ is lazy political shorthand as if voters are easily categorised into ‘left’, ‘right’ and ‘centrists’ the latter swinging between the two and acting as king-maker. It has always been more complex than this, with people being more socially conservative on certain issues or economically liberal on others. The Brexit debate cut right across the old political divides with people across the spectrum, across class devices and cultural backgrounds being completely divided on the issue. A working-class voter in Hartlepool was not considered a swing voter until very recently, nor was an upper-middle-class voter in Kensington. Yet in the 2020s these voters will be part of the much larger ‘swing vote’ that will decide the next government.

Then there are the four nations of the United Kingdom. The majority of UK voters live in England, so inevitably this is where elections are won and lost. Historically, Labour has performed well in Scotland and Wales, with Northern Ireland having its own difficult history and different parties. Labour still performs well in Wales, having controlled the Welsh Senate since its creation in 1999. The 2021 deal between Welsh Labour and the Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru has been clever in securing broad support of support within the devolved government there.

The situation in Scotland is nowhere near as rosy. Traditionally, Scotland was a Labour stronghold, yet in the 2019 election, the party won only one seat up there. The Scottish National Party (SNP) have controlled the Scottish Parliament since 2007. There was a small amount of comfort for Labour in the 2022 local council elections where Labour came second to the SNP, but still a long way behind. Even the polls showing Labour with a 33% lead over the Tories nationally, had Labour was far behind the SNP in Scotland. Whilst support for independence hovers around the 50% mark in Scotland, it is consistently higher now than during the last independence referendum in 2014. The SNP have been clever to build a coalition of former Labour left voters and Scottish nationalists including some from the centre-right. By contrast, the various deals being done by Labour with the Conservatives and Lib Dems to stop the SNP risk doing more long-term harm to Labour’s chances in left-leaning Scotland.

For Labour, the strategy to win not only the next election but to start winning more often in the UK is to win over more English voters, as over 80% of the population live there. English voters have traditionally been small ‘c’ Conservative and large the ‘C’ Conservative Party usually do well, especially in the South outside of London. A wholesale return to Corbyn’s era politics is unlikely to shift this. In the short term, Labour with more of a 1997 flavour may win the next election, but it is not 1997, and very soon voters will grow restless.

English voters might be conservative but may see the need for economic reform so more people have opportunities. They will expect serious government interventions in housing, employment, education and transport. Already we have seen a Tory Government partially renationalise the railways, increase taxes to fund social care and lift Univeral Credit (the UK’s universal benefit), things the Tories would not have considered in the 1990s. The fact is society has changed. And in politics. you need to adapt. Traditionally the Conservative Party are much better at this than Labour. Whilst the Tories will probably now lose the next election, but, the size of their loss and Labour’s win will determine how long they spend in opposition. For Labour, winning more often will require nuisance and being adaptable. Yes, learn the important lessons from 1997, but know that times are now different and so too are policies and tactics. The left may not be strong enough to win, but they are still too big a block now to ignore and are more significant than in the 1990s. Like the Biden campaign, Starmer’s team will need to give the left something that means they can at least give grudging support. In turn, the left need to accept that a few important gains are better than none at all and the great cannot continue to be the enemy of the good or even the ok-ish.

The next election could well go to Labour, or at least be lost by the Tories due to their ineptness at running the country in the last few years. Labour’s internal problems have not gone away, it is just that the Conservative Party’s internal issues are now a lot worse and unusually for them have been aired in public. The opportunity for Labour is to build a winning coalition that helps them win not just the next election, but to start winning more than they lose.

18 comments on “UK Labour – can they finally beat the Tories? ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Mac1 1
    30 January 2023 at 9:41 am

    This article would read better if paragraphed. Nick Kelly's other articles were. It looks more attractive and the flow of argument is more easily tracked. More than 2400 words here!

    • nickkelly 1.1
      30 January 2023 at 9:58 am

      Sorry, that was a technical hitch on my end. I will fix that now

      • weka 1.1.1
        30 January 2023 at 12:34 pm

        I've been editing some of your posts (having failed in the past to get a response by email). It's probably every 4th or do post something doesn't quite translate. It would be really helpful if you could check on the front page each time that the cross posting has formatted properly once you have published your post. Cheers.

      • Mac1 1.1.2
        30 January 2023 at 12:48 pm

        Thanks. With the discussion as to whether the Tories can reverse this 20% poll gap comes the question as to whether, and how, Labour and the Greens can do similar with a much smaller gap, hopefully.

        Can we point out the problems that National and ACT will have with their factionalism?

        Can we point out what happens when dirty politics and right wing manipulators get their way, as in Auckland with the shenanigans there?

        Can we fund and provide the manpower for an effective election?

        Can we bring back those disaffected Labour-leaning voters who have been turned off by years of covid, mandate, fire arms, speed restrictions and directive government?

        This last was proposed by a Green member when walking yesterday on the local hills who remarked that with Ardern gone those Labour voters might be enticed back.

        The last point in the post reflects a political wisdom- that governments get voted out and lose, rather than oppositions get voted in to win.

      • lprent 1.1.3
        30 January 2023 at 5:23 pm

        I truncated the excerpt as well to something that fits the space 😉

  2. AB 2
    30 January 2023 at 12:17 pm

    All Starmer needs to do is make his party acceptable to the UK establishment and the Tories will fall over all on their own. That's clearly the plan and it appears to be working. If some of the papers in Rupert's stable turn against the Tories as they might do, then it's all over.

  3. Tiger Mountain 3
    30 January 2023 at 1:34 pm

    This column is classic punditry. Nick answers his own various questions and speculations in a writers feedback loop. Being a Starmer apologist is not where a leftist need go.

    Jeremy Corbyn was a rogue leadership inclusion originally, but generated real working class support and membership sign ups. He was great on “For the many not the few” policies which included nationalisations, but got stumped on Brexit. All he needed to say imo was–“we will respect the people’s decision which ever way it goes, and, institute our pro working class programme”

    Leave the pasty poms to their “fry oops” and mushy peas I say!

  4. Ad 4
    30 January 2023 at 1:50 pm

    England is a rapidly fading node of political use or interest to New Zealand.

    Tracking the rise and stabilisation of Labour and social democratic governments through Europe, North America, South America, and east Asia has more bearing upon us now, because that is where our trade and social and political networks now really are.

    • Sanctuary 4.1
      31 January 2023 at 7:48 am

      Agrred – while Europe's decline relative to the rest of the world is relative (although the symbolism of Eastern Europe turning to South Korea for advanced weapons can’t be overlooked), the UKs decline is absolute and the result of economic mismanagement that has it origins dating back to the 1870s. The Thatcher era though was when the collapse of British industry became final, sacrificed on the alter of a strong pound and the interests of city financiers and all masked by the squandering of North Sea oil revenue on weapons and welfare. Blair's "cool Britannia" built leisure centres where shipyards once stood and converted derelict factories into boujee apartments, but once the adrenalin rush of that was spent people were still left in depressed areas with nothing but low paid service jobs or unemployment.

      Britain now is a poor country with some very rich people in it, and it's politics increasingly resemble those of similar countries dominated by corrupt oligarchs. Billionaire sociopaths propped up by billionaire media barons and “the network”.

      So sad to see, I have fond memories of my time living in the UK in the 1980s.

  5. Stuart Munro 5
    30 January 2023 at 2:06 pm

    Yeah nah. You don't get to whitewash Starmer's support of the bullshit antisemitism campaign against Corbyn, without which he'd've still been leader.

    English Labour supporters must of course make their own decisions, but a liar and class traitor like Starmer isn't worth preserving. He's not much better than Boris in drag.

  6. Corey Humm 6
    30 January 2023 at 2:55 pm

    Yes.

    Keir Starmer being boring certainly isn't hurting after a decade of referendums like electoral reform, Scottish national independence, Brexit, plus the 2015,2017,2019 elections plus local elections and devolved elections and absolute chaos from Brexit to COVID to Truss I think the UK actually wants a boring politician.

    The wind is on UK labours side. The Tory's are a tired govt whose economic mismanagement has actively hurt the UK public.

    Also from Germany to Fiji to Sweden to Brazil to Australia to Samoa govts elected before COVID are falling in elections like dominos be it the global economy, the cost of living, COVID fatigue/fall out or just being in office for too long it's not a good time to be an incumbent government facing election ATM.

    The sad thing about uk labour is they really are four different parties who truly hate each other and the UK left would benefit immensely from proportional representation, they'd have won every election of the last 40 years if they had proportional voting but they'd prefer to be stuck in an unhappy marriage as the largest opposition party in perpetual opposition than be part of a coalition govt.

    Starmer has no vision. Corbyn had too much. Both sides are incredibly toxic and both sides tell you to vote for the Tory's if you have any slight disagreements with them. Yuck.

    I really liked much of the 2017 labour manifesto, the 2019 manifesto was a ridiculous wish list and was constantly being added to almost every day.

    I maintain had a likable charismatic leader who understood coms and was articulate led labour on a similar platform as their 2017 manifesto running against Theresa May, labour could have formed a minority govt.

    Corbyn was a terrible party leader with far too much baggage and questionable decisions as a leader and I hate how people try to compare him to the legendary Bernie Sanders, the senate amendment king, an articulate political progressive realist who had amazing coms.

    At the same time it's truly disgusting how the right of the party constantly attacked and sabotaged the labour party, but then again the hard left are doing it now. it always felt to me that the cornynistas always knew that corbyn was unelectable and sort of took delight in it. It always seemed like the cornynistas goal was just to take over the labour party and “own the libs” that victory to them was control of the opposition and that actually winning elections was never the goal because “victory is for the bourgeois”, cornynistas always had a sense of just contrariness.

    They need mmp…bad.

  7. woodart 7
    30 January 2023 at 5:49 pm

    short answer. yes, IF, they dont get sidetracked by jewish conspiracies, class warfare, nthvsth arguments,mixed messages ,etc,etc. british labour seems expert at getting sidetracked, shooting itself in the foot, waffling,going off at a tangent,etc,etc. brexit should have sunk the tories for yrs, but labours phucking around let them off. keep it simple.

    • Visubversa 7.1
      30 January 2023 at 7:30 pm

      Well UK Labour has been well infiltrated by "gender ideology" to the extent that Labour women MP's are shouted down in Parliament and unable to attend the Party conference for fear of violent attack – if they stand up for the rights of women and of same sex attracted people. Labour won't stand up for Rosie Duffield MP, and is happy to include Eddie Izzard – now in "permanent girl mode" (at 60yo) in women's selections. Fortunately, the good citizens of Sheffield Central knew what a woman was – and what wasn't – and sent him packing.

      Pissing off a lot of women activists – and LGB activists – doesn't get that vital on the ground organising and fundraising work done.

  8. Mike the Lefty 8
    30 January 2023 at 8:04 pm

    It all brings back to mind the 1997 elections.

    Labour under Tony Blair adopted "Tory-lite" policies and coasted to victory.

    If the Labour Party adopt more socialist policies they may still lose the election if the overwhelmingly negative Reform UK Party does similar damage that it did last time under its former label of the Brexit Party.

    Does UK Labour go with its heart or with its head?

    That is the question.

    • DS 8.1
      30 January 2023 at 9:45 pm

      Labour in 1997 would have won regardless of its positioning. The Tories were literally that toxic, on account of the VAT betrayal, Black Wednesday, corruption, sex scandals, and the relentless party civil wars over Europe (plus Major in 1992 benefited from not being Thatcher. Five years later, the goodwill was gone).

      Anyway, Starmer is spending most of his time trying to purge anyone associated with Corbyn from the party. 2019 was a function of a parliamentary and media hit-job (a shame because 2017 had shown that there was appetite for genuine leftism).

    • Stuart Munro 8.2
      30 January 2023 at 10:09 pm

      There's quite a lot of union action at present, centering around rail. But Starmer is MIA. A Labour party that doesn't support the workers is just a collection of troughers.

  10. Peter Bradley 10
    31 January 2023 at 9:14 am

    "English voters might be conservative" – only about 30% of them and with FPTP that's all you need to win a parliamentary majority in the UK. The Corbyn bashing was undertaken because of his economic policies – policies desperately needed in the sagging UK economy, policies that would lift productivity and investment significantly at the expense of the low tax, low wage, de-regulated wet dream of the financialized establishment.

    Starmer is a place holder – a cipher for the UK's dominant right wing media that no politician can cross without paying for it big time.

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    3 days ago

  • Weekly Roundup 10-May-2024
    Brrr, the first cold snap of the year. Hope you’re rugged up nice and warm. Here are some stories that caught our eye this week… This Week on Greater Auckland On Monday, we had a post from a new contributor, Connor Sharp, who dug into the public feedback ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    3 days ago

  • The Hoon around the week to May 10
    Almost all of the Wellington City Council’s recommended zoning changes to allow many more apartments and townhouses in its inner-suburbs have been approved.Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for subscribers features co-hosts and , along with regular guest on geopolitics, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #19 2024
    Open access notables A Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification, Balaguru et al., Earth's Future: Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict substantial coastal damages, making it pertinent to understand changing storm characteristics in the important nearshore region. Past work examined several aspects of TCs relevant for impacts in coastal regions. However, ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago

  • Bryce Edwards: Losing confidence in the integrity of NZ elections
    Do you believe New Zealand runs its general elections fairly and competently? As a voter, can you be confident that the votes on your ballot will be counted towards the final result? As a political scientist, I’ve been asked these questions many times and always answered “yes”, with very few ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    4 days ago

  • The Song of Saqua: Volume VIII
    Thus far May has followed on from a quiet April in the blogging department, but in fairness, it has been another case of doing what I am supposed to be doing, namely writing original fiction. Plus reading. So don’t worry – I have been productive. But in order to reassure ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    4 days ago

  • Pretending to talk other people’s languages
    Fakes can come in many forms.A Rolex, for instance.A tan can be fake. Read more ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago

  • What’s new? A social agency with an emphasis on “investment” instead of “wellbeing” – b...
    Buzz from the Beehive A new government agency will open for business on July 1 – the Social Investment Agency. As a new standalone central agency effective from 1 July, it will lead the development of social investment across Government, helping ministers understand who they need to invest in, what ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago

  • Following the political money
    Bryce Edwards writes –    “Follow the money” is the classic directive to journalists trying to understand where power and influence lie in society. In terms of uncovering who influences various New Zealand political parties and governments, it therefore pays to look at who is funding them. The ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Hipkins would rather no one remember that he was Minister of Education
    Alwyn Poole writes –  After being elected to Parliament in 2008 the maiden speech of Hipkins was substantially around education policy. He was Labour’s spokesperson for education 2011 – 2017. He was Minister for Education from 2017 until February 2023. This is approximately 88% of the time Labour ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Fashionable follies
    Eric Crampton writes –  A fashion industry group is lobbying for protections. They make the usual arguments and a newer one. None of it makes sense. An industry group says it pumped $7.8 billion into the economy last year – that’s 1.9 percent of New Zealand’s GDP. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Justice for Bainimarama!
    In December 2006, Fiji's military leader Voreqe Bainimarama overthrew the elected government in a coup. He ruled Fiji for the next 16 years, first as dictator, then as "elected" Prime Minister. But now, he's finally been sent to jail where he belongs. Sadly, this isn't for his real crime of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago

  • March for Nature in June
    Don't like National's corrupt Muldoonist "fast-track" law? Aotearoa's environmental NGO's - Greenpeace, Forest & Bird, WWF, Coromandel Watchdog, Coal Action Network Aotearoa, Kiwis Against Seabed Mining, and others - have announced a joint march against it in Auckland in June: When: 13:00, 8 June, 2024 Where: Aotea Square, Auckland You ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago

  • Bernard’ s Dawn Chorus & Pick ‘n’ Mix for Thursday May 9
    Seymour describes sushi as too woke for school meals. There are no fish sushi meals recommended by the School Lunches programme. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / Getty ImagesTL;DR: The Government will swap out hot meals for packaged sandwiches to save $107 million on school lunches for poor kids. MSD has pulled ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago

  • The non-woke $3 Lunch.
    I don't mind stealin' bread from the mouths of decadenceBut I can't feed on the powerless when my cup's already overfilled, yeahBut it's on the table, the fire's cookin'And they're farmin' babies, while slaves are workin'The blood is on the table and the mouths are chokin'But I'm goin' hungry, yeahSome ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago

  • Labour’s chickens come home to roost
    The Ardern Government’s chickens came home to roost yesterday with the news that the country is short of natural gas. In 2018, Labour banned offshore petroleum exploration, and industry executives say that the attendant loss of confidence by the industry impacted overall investment in onshore gas fields. Energy Resources Minister ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago

  • Calvin Reviews Lord of The Rings
    Hi,If you’ve been digging through the newly launched Webworm store (orders are being dispatched worldwide as I type!) you’ll have noticed the best model we had was Calvin.This is Calvin.Calvin.Calvin is 7, and is the son of my producer over on Flightless Bird, Rob — aka “Wobby Wob”. Rob also ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    4 days ago

  • Climate Adam: How to visualise Climate Change (ft. Katharine Hayhoe)
    This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). Climate change is everywhere. And when something's everywhere it can feel like it's nowhere. So how do we get our heads ...
    Skeptical Science
    5 days ago

  • The wrong direction
    Some good news on climate change today: the energy transition away from fossil fuels is picking up speed, and renewables now make up 30% of global electricity supply. Meanwhile, in Aotearoa, we're moving in the opposite direction, with Genesis Energy announcing that it will resume importing Indonesian coal. Their official ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago

  • National hates democracy
    Its a law like gravity: whenever a right-wing government is elected, they start attacking democracy. And now, after talking to their Republican and Tory and Fidesz chums at the International Democracy Union forum in Wellington, National is doing it here, announcing plans to remove election-day enrolment. Or, to put it ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago

  • No Tikanga Please, We're Lawyers.
    Yesterday Winston Peters focussed his attention on the important matter at hand. Tweeting. Like the former, and quite possibly next, orange POTUS, from whom he takes much of his political strategy, Winston is an avid X’er.His message didn’t resemble an historic address this time. In fact it was more reminiscent ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago

  • Member’s Day
    Today is a Member's Day, and it seems we've entered the slowdown as things emerge from select committee. First up is the committee stage of Greg O'Connor's Child Protection (Child Sex Offender Government Agency Registration) (Overseas Travel Reporting) Amendment Bill, which will be followed by the second readings of Stuart ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago

  • Hurrah for coal – Shane Jones welcomes Genesis Energy’s import plans as natural gas production s...
    Buzz from the Beehive A significant decline in natural gas production has given Resources Minister Shane Jones an opportunity to reiterate his enthusiasm for the mining and burning of coal. For good measure, he has praised an announcement from Genesis Energy that it will resume importing coal. He and Energy ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago

  • Bryce Edwards: Following the political money
    “Follow the money” is the classic directive to journalists trying to understand where power and influence lie in society. In terms of uncovering who influences various New Zealand political parties and governments, it therefore pays to look at who is funding them. The political parties are legally obliged to make ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    5 days ago

  • A Left-Right ranking of universities in NZ: a practical guide for students and parents
    Rob MacCullough writes – Here is my subjective ranking on a “most-left” to “most-right” scale of most of our major NZ Universities, with some anecdotal (and at times amusing) evidence to back up the claim. Extreme Left   Auckland University of Technology Evidence The ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  •  Inflation and GST thresholds
    Eric Crampton writes –  I hadn’t thought about this one until a helpful email showed up in my inbox.It’s pretty obvious that income tax thresholds should automatically index with inflation – whether to anchor the thresholds in percentiles of the income distribution, or to anchor against a real ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • Green Party grapples with persistent scandals
    Jacqui Van Der Kaay writes –  Parliament’s speaker had no option but to refer Green MP Julie Anne Genter to the Privileges Committee for her behaviour in the House last Wednesday evening. The incident, in which she crossed the floor to wave a book and yell at National ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • A law school to be avoided – Auckland University of Technology
    Gary Judd writes – The Dean of the law school at the Auckland University of Technology is someone called Khylee Quince. I have been sent her social media posting in which she has, over the LawNews headline “Senior King’s Counsel files complaint about compulsory tikanga Maori studies for ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • 17 people in Malaita stand in way of China’s takeover of the Solomons
    Cleo Paskal writes – WASHINGTON, D.C.: ‘Many of us have received phone calls from [the opposing camp] telling them if they join the camp they will be given projects for their wards and $300,000 [around US$35,000] each’, says former Malaita Premier Daniel Suidani. The elections in Solomon Islands aren’t ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell on the Hamas Ceasefire Offer, and Mark Mitchell’s Incompetence
    With hindsight, it was inevitable that (a) Hamas would agree to the ceasefire deal brokered by Egypt and Qatar and that ( b) Israel would then immediately launch attacks on Rafah, regardless. We might have hoped the concessions made by Hamas would cause Israel to desist from slaughtering thousands more ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    5 days ago

  • Bernard’ s Dawn Chorus & Pick ‘n’ Mix for Wednesday May 8
    Placards and mourners outside the Kilbirnie Mosque following the Christchurch terror attack: MSD has terminated the Kaiwhakaoranga service, which has been used by 415 families since the attacks. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: The Government’s pledge to only cut ‘back office’ staff rather than ‘frontline’ services is on increasingly shaky ground, with ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago

  • A few PT announcements
    There’s been a few smaller public transport announcements over the last week or so that I thought I’d cover in a single post. Fareshare I’ve long called for Auckland Transport to offer a way to enable employer-subsidised public transport options. The need for this took on even more importance ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    5 days ago

  • Jacqui Van Der Kaay: Green Party grapples with persistent scandals
    Parliament’s speaker had no option but to refer Green MP Julie Anne Genter to the Privileges Committee for her behaviour in the House last Wednesday evening. The incident, in which she crossed the floor to wave a book and yell at National Minister Matt Doocey, reflects poorly on Genter and ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    5 days ago

  • At a glance – Tree ring proxies and the divergence problem
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago

  • Nothing to sneer at
    Who likes being sneered at? Nobody. Worse yet, when the sneerer has their facts all wrong, and might well be an idiot.The sneer in question is The adults are in charge now, and it is a sneer offered in retort to criticism of this new Government, no matter how well ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago

  • Still on their bullshit
    When in government, Labour pushed to extend the Parliamentary term to four years, to reduce accountability and our ability to vote out a bad government. And now, they're trying to do it through the member's ballot, with a Four-Year Parliamentary Term Legislation Bill. The bill at least requires a referendum ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago

  • Drawn
    A ballot for a single Member's Bill was held today, and the following bill was drawn: Public Works (Prohibition of Compulsory Acquisition of Māori Land) Amendment Bill (Hūhana Lyndon) The bill would prevent the government from stealing Māori land in breach of Te Tiriti o Waitangi. It ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago

  • A nod and a wink that will unnecessarily cost Aucklanders tens of millions per year
    Simeon Brown, alongside Wayne Brown, is favouring a political figleaf now in exchange for loading up tens of millions in extra interest costs on Auckland ratepayers. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s is pushing back hard at suggestions from Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and Mayor Wayne Brown ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • Correcting the Corrections announcement – a fiscal farce that should bother the OECD
     Buzz from the Beehive One headline-grabber from the Beehive yesterday was the OECD’s advice that the government must bring the Budget deficit under control or face higher interest rates. Another was the announcement of a $1.9 billion “investment” in Corrections over the next four years. In the best interests of ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  •  Like it or not, the Kiwis are either going into ‘Pillar 2’ – or they are going to China
    Chris Trotter writes –  Had Zheng He’s fleet sailed east, not west, in the early Fifteenth Century, how different our world would be. There is little reason to suppose that the sea-going junks of the Ming Dynasty, among the largest and most sophisticated sailing vessels ever constructed, would have failed ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • A balanced and an unbalanced article
    David Farrar writes – Two articles give a useful contrast in balance. Both seek to be neutral explainer articles. This one in the Herald on Social Investment covers the pros and cons nicely. It links to critical pieces and talks about aspects that failed and aspects that are more ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • Deeply unserious country
    Every bit of this seems insane. And people wonder why productivity is falling through the floor. Energy News reports that the Environment Court finally threw out Allan Crafar’s appeal against a solar farm. From the story: Consent was granted in 2022. Crafar appealed November 2022. On what grounds? That ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • Senior King’s Counsel files complaint about compulsory tikanga Māori studies for law students
    The tikanga regulations will compel law students to be taught that a system which does not conform with the rule of law is nevertheless law which should be observed and applied…  Gary Judd KC writes –  I have made a complaint to Parliament’s Regulation ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • https://www.greaterauckland.org.nz/?p=77196
    The future of Te Huia, the train between Hamilton and Auckland, has been getting a lot of attention recently as current funding for it is only in place till the end of June. The government initially agreed to a five year trial, through to April 2026, but that was subject ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    6 days ago

  • Bernard’s pick 'n' mix for Tuesday, May 7
    TL;DR: Hamas has just agreed to Israel’s ceasefire plan. Nelson hospital’s rebuild has been cut back to save money. The OECD suggests New Zealand break up network monopolies, including in electricity. PM Christopher Luxon’s news conference on a prison expansion announcement last night was his messiest yet.Here’s my top six ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • HM Prison Aotearoa.
    A homicide in Ponsonby, a manhunt with a killer on the run. The nation’s leader stands before a press conference reassuring a frightened nation that he’ll sort it out, he’ll keep them safe, he’ll build some new prison spaces.Sorry what? There’s a scary dude on the run with a gun ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago

  • Get Your Webworm Merch!
    Hi,I know it’s been awhile since there’s been any Webworm merch — and today that all changes!Over the last four months, I’ve been working with New Zealand artist Jess Johnson to create a series of t-shirts, caps and stickers that are infused with Webworm DNA — and as of right ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago

  • Top OECD economist puts Willis between a rock and a hard place
    The OECD’s chief economist yesterday laid it on the line for the new Government: bring the deficit under control or face higher Reserve Bank interest rates for longer. And to bring the deficit under control, she meant not borrowing for tax cuts. But there was more. Without policy changes—introducing a ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago

  • Media Link: “A View from Afar” on the moment of friction, and more.
    After a hiatus of over four months Selwyn Manning and I finally got it together to re-start the “A View from Afar” podcast series. We shall see how we go but aim to do 2 episodes per month if possible. … Continue reading → ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    7 days ago

  • Preposterous priorities – politicians preferred pastry
    Newsroom writer Aaron Smale, in an article triggered by the High Court’s ruling on whether a sitting MP must respond to a summons to appear before the Waitangi Tribunal, reports on issues underpinning the tribunal’s urgent inquiry into the Government’s intention to remove Section 7AA from the Oranga Tamariki ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    7 days ago

  • Driving ahead with Roads of Regional Significance
    The coalition Government is launching Roads of Regional Significance to sit alongside Roads of National Significance as part of its plan to deliver priority roading projects across the country, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “The Roads of National Significance (RoNS) built by the previous National Government are some of New Zealand’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago

  • New Zealand congratulates new Solomon Islands government
    A high-level New Zealand political delegation in Honiara today congratulated the new Government of Solomon Islands, led by Jeremiah Manele, on taking office.    “We are privileged to meet the new Prime Minister and members of his Cabinet during his government’s first ten days in office,” Deputy Prime Minister and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago

  • New Zealand supports UN Palestine resolution
    New Zealand voted in favour of a resolution broadening Palestine’s participation at the United Nations General Assembly overnight, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.    “The resolution enhances the rights of Palestine to participate in the work of the UN General Assembly while stopping short of admitting Palestine as a full ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Speech to the 2024 Infrastructure Symposium
    Introduction Good morning. It’s a great privilege to be here at the 2024 Infrastructure Symposium. I was extremely happy when the Prime Minister asked me to be his Minister for Infrastructure. It is one of the great barriers holding the New Zealand economy back from achieving its potential. Building high ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • $571 million for Defence pay and projects
    Defence Minister Judith Collins today announced the upcoming Budget will include new funding of $571 million for Defence Force pay and projects. “Our servicemen and women do New Zealand proud throughout the world and this funding will help ensure we retain their services and expertise as we navigate an increasingly ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Climate change – mitigating the risks and costs
    New Zealand’s ability to cope with climate change will be strengthened as part of the Government’s focus to build resilience as we rebuild the economy, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “An enduring and long-term approach is needed to provide New Zealanders and the economy with certainty as the climate ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Getting new job seekers on the pathway to work
    Jobseeker beneficiaries who have work obligations must now meet with MSD within two weeks of their benefit starting to determine their next step towards finding a job, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “A key part of the coalition Government’s plan to have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Accelerating Social Investment
    A new standalone Social Investment Agency will power-up the social investment approach, driving positive change for our most vulnerable New Zealanders, Social Investment Minister Nicola Willis says.  “Despite the Government currently investing more than $70 billion every year into social services, we are not seeing the outcomes we want for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Getting Back on Track
    Check against delivery Good morning. It is a pleasure to be with you to outline the Coalition Government’s approach to our first Budget. Thank you Mark Skelly, President of the Hutt Valley Chamber of Commerce, together with  your Board and team, for hosting me.   I’d like to acknowledge His Worship ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • NZ – European Union ties more critical than ever
    Your Excellency Ambassador Meredith,   Members of the Diplomatic Corps and Ambassadors from European Union Member States,   Ministerial colleagues, Members of Parliament, and other distinguished guests, Thank you everyone for joining us.   Ladies and gentlemen -    In diplomacy, we often speak of ‘close’ and ‘long-standing’ relations.   ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Therapeutic Products Act to be repealed
    The Therapeutic Products Act (TPA) will be repealed this year so that a better regime can be put in place to provide New Zealanders safe and timely access to medicines, medical devices and health products, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello announced today. “The medicines and products we are talking about ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Decisions on Wellington City Council’s District Plan
    The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop, today released his decision on twenty recommendations referred to him by the Wellington City Council relating to its Intensification Planning Instrument, after the Council rejected those recommendations of the Independent Hearings Panel and made alternative recommendations. “Wellington notified its District Plan on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Rape Awareness Week: Government committed to action on sexual violence
    Rape Awareness Week (6-10 May) is an important opportunity to acknowledge the continued effort required by government and communities to ensure that all New Zealanders can live free from violence, say Ministers Karen Chhour and Louise Upston.  “With 1 in 3 women and 1 in 8 men experiencing sexual violence ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Smarter lunch programme feeds more, costs less
    Associate Education Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government will be delivering a more efficient Healthy School Lunches Programme, saving taxpayers approximately $107 million a year compared to how Labour funded it, by embracing innovation and commercial expertise. “We are delivering on our commitment to treat taxpayers’ money ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Report provides insights into marine recovery
    New research on the impacts of extreme weather on coastal marine habitats in Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay will help fishery managers plan for and respond to any future events, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. A report released today on research by Niwa on behalf of Fisheries New Zealand ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • NZ to send political delegation to the Pacific
    Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will lead a broad political delegation on a five-stop Pacific tour next week to strengthen New Zealand’s engagement with the region.   The delegation will visit Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Tuvalu.    “New Zealand has deep and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Low gas production threatens energy security
    There has been a material decline in gas production according to figures released today by the Gas Industry Co.  Figures released by the Gas Industry Company show that there was a 12.5 per cent reduction in gas production during 2023, and a 27.8 per cent reduction in gas production in the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Defence industry talent, commitment recognised
    Defence Minister Judith Collins tonight announced the recipients of the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for Industry, saying they all contribute to New Zealanders’ security and wellbeing. “Congratulations to this year’s recipients, whose innovative products and services play a critical role in the delivery of New Zealand’s defence capabilities, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • Speech to the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for Industry
    Welcome to you all - it is a pleasure to be here this evening.I would like to start by thanking Greg Lowe, Chair of the New Zealand Defence Industry Advisory Council, for co-hosting this reception with me. This evening is about recognising businesses from across New Zealand and overseas who in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • Speech to the Sixth Annual New Zealand Government Data Summit
    It is a pleasure to be speaking to you as the Minister for Digitising Government.  I would like to thank Akolade for the invitation to address this Summit, and to acknowledge the great effort you are making to grow New Zealand’s digital future. Today, we stand at the cusp of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • Ceasefire agreement needed now: Peters
    New Zealand is urging both Israel and Hamas to agree to an immediate ceasefire to avoid the further humanitarian catastrophe that military action in Rafah would unleash, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.   “The immense suffering in Gaza cannot be allowed to worsen further. Both sides have a responsibility to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • Daily school attendance data now available
    A new online data dashboard released today as part of the Government’s school attendance action plan makes more timely daily attendance data available to the public and parents, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour.  The interactive dashboard will be updated once a week to show a national average of how ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • Ambassador to United States appointed
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced Rosemary Banks will be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States of America.    “Our relationship with the United States is crucial for New Zealand in strategic, security and economic terms,” Mr Peters says.    “New Zealand and the United States have a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • New permit proposed for recreational gold mining
    The Government is considering creating a new tier of minerals permitting that will make it easier for hobby miners to prospect for gold. “New Zealand was built on gold, it’s in our DNA. Our gold deposits, particularly in regions such as Otago and the West Coast have always attracted fortune-hunters. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • NZ and the UAE launch FTA negotiations
    Minister for Trade Todd McClay today announced that New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA). Minister McClay met with his counterpart UAE Trade Minister Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi in Dubai, where they announced the launch of negotiations on a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago

  • New Zealand Sign Language Week an opportunity for anyone to sign
    New Zealand Sign Language Week is an excellent opportunity for all Kiwis to give the language a go, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. This week (May 6 to 12) is New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL) Week. The theme is “an Aotearoa where anyone can sign anywhere” and aims to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago

  • Next stop NASA for New Zealand students
    Six tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago

  • $1.9 billion investment to keep NZ safe from crime
    New Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago

  • OECD reinforces need to control spending
    The OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli.   ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Agreement delivers Local Water Done Well for Auckland
    The Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Gaza and the Pacific on the agenda with Germany
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today.    "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Decision allows for housing growth in Western Bay of Plenty
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