Wow. Perhaps someone like Hooten would argue that Fairfax was much more reliable and that the 18.6% was just a margin of error or a misprint or an indication that Phil Goff is being challenged by ummm….
Herald poll surveyed 750 , Fairfax around 1000, both with margin of error of 3%.
Now come to the the rescue if your statistically minded, but looking at Auckland only i guess no more than a third of those surveyed would be from Auckland would that make the margin of error 9% ?, which sort of bridges half the gap. Be a good question for the respective pollign co’s to attempt to explain.
I did a two proportion z-test between two results, assuming that the samples sizes for Auckland were 1/3 of the total (i.e. 250 for Herald, 333 for Fairfax), and the resulting Z score was about 4.9. The p value for this difference is ~4.79e-7. In other words, it is very very unlikely that the difference can be accounted for by the sampling error of the polls.
Yeah one has to start calling in to question these polls I mean seriously is polling a tool for the future?
And if it is what shape will it take to give a more accurate story.
Polling has some accuracy when you’re taking a nationwide picture and focusing mostly on the two main parties.
When you start getting into regional concerns or trying to estimate parties under 10%, the only useful thing you can measure is the trends- the actual numbers have such a high ratio to inaccuracy that it’s ridiculous to speculate on them.
Most likely one or both of the numbers is/are rogue.
Labour polled from memory 36% in Auckland last election.
My very strong impression from spending hours and hours doorknocking and talking to people is that there is a return of support to Labour from those persuaded last time to vote for Smile and Wave.
The three Auckland by election results are also evidence of this. On the polling Labour should have lost Mt Albert and have been trounced in Botany and Te Tai Tokerau. There was a swing to Labour in each.
These bloody polls just provide diversions and weapons. Note every right winger, Hoots, Farrar, the slimy one et al are talking about this latest poll as if the results are carved in stone.
For them these polls are weapons to bash the left with no matter how dodgy their figures are.
cos of continually delivering thjis crap ,read it enough times and hearing it enough times will hopefully make some left voters not bother going out to vote which boils down to
1= The fascist right are worried…..
I say keep up the good work-not a supporter of Goff- im a supporter of policies that benefit all not a select few
So keep the lies/bullshit the right are promoting going out on Twitter facebook-I index alot of these stories on my facebook page and joined a few groups etc etc
The word is out there regarding these tories dont you worry and its working
Maybe the polls are completely wrong. But we went through this all last election, with Labour supporters insisting that the polls were lying, that they didn’t sample cell-phones and that their sense from door-knocking was that things were going really well. And they turned out to be completely wrong and the aggregates of the main polls were a really accurate predictor of the final outcome.
And my position is still that National will probably take a bump below 50% in the actual campaign, and if they do then they are pretty much fresh out of friends – a few 1-3 MP coalition allies, creating not so much a “five headed monster” as a “four-pimpled teenager”. If National drop to the mid-40%, they might well not be able to form a government. Then the pressure will be on the Greens as to whether they want to support Labour or National.
If they have a choice of realistically creating a Labour government (eg one that isn’t Labour + Greens + NZ First + Mana + Maori) then they’ll go that way.
See my comment above (2.1). Perhaps the aggregate of the polls will be correct this time as well. Averaging polls should certainly give a better picture than one poll. But the inconsistency between polls is telling us that there is something very wrong with their methodology (in at least some polls) – we are in NOT looking at random error introduced by sampling error. Therefore, we have no idea of the true ‘error’ associated with the polls and cannot be sure that there is no systematic bias.
On that basis, we seriously have to be questioning their results and stop thinking they can give us any indication of the level of support for various parties beyond a rough guide. That is, I have no doubt that the support for Labour is ‘low’ at this time and support for National is ‘high’. But exactly how ‘low’ and how ‘high’ is anyone’s guess. Perhaps we should just forget the polls, go through the election campaign, and see what happens on Nov 26?
I don’t think you have to be a head in the sand ‘the polls are all wrong’ type to acknowledge that something is seriously wrong with one of those polls.
It is not that the polls are wrong – it is now a question of which one is right.
As far as I know, the last time round the polling companies held up how they were all in agreement with each other as evidence of their accuracy. Now we are seeing wild variations that are not just at the edges of the margin of error but well outside them. This Fairfax poll in particular is so at variance that I can only think that it has been designed to serve an agenda – to panic Labour voters and deliver another “2002” style result, only in reverse.
three years is a long time in technology, especially when incomes at the bottom have been falling and squeezing things like the fixed line phone bill off the agenda. Personally, I regard these huge variations in results as indicating the polling methodology of Fairfax polls at least is now very suspect.
especially when incomes at the bottom have been falling and squeezing things like the fixed line phone bill off the agenda.
What on earth just happened? I wrote a long answer to this about why it was reasonable to assume that low-income people would actually prefer a fixed-line phone – and it vanished! WTFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF?
[There’s nothing pending or in the trash – it never made it to the server. See your comment on Open mike re connection “burp” – that will be it. r0b]
@ Danyl: Both are possible. The “FearFacts” polls are bent (and wrong) and the ultimate election results somewhat mirror the poll predictions. You do not need to be a genius to work out how that could happen.
Apparantly in the labour strongholds in the last election turnout was very poor and you have wonder why.Was it dissatisfaction with Labour or was it that a lot of poor kiwis work saturdays to make ends meet and thought theres no point voting because the polls give it to National. Apparantly 200000 labour voters didn’t even turn up. So a large part of the result was not swinging labour voters but absent labour voters.
In the 2008 election National only got 43% of the vote but becuase Winstone missed the 5% by a whisker everyone got more seats proportionally. Then act managed to get into parliament well below the 5% level and that threw the numbers. The last election was not a massive vitory for the National Party but a series of tacticle manouvers with the aid of media manipulated scandal by the NZ Herald and the police etc.
Had those 200000 ( 7% of voters ) Labour voters had made it to the polls and Winstone not had bullshit police enquiries hanging over him and got his 5% the election results would have been a very differrent story, possibly with a hung parliament.
Remember the 2004 was being called for National and they lost didn’t they. Cellphone only households amoungst the poor have grown quite a bit since then.
These polls that are swinging wildly between polling companies and obviously must have a far greater margin of error than the 3% claimed.
piss off fake Monty, find your own name to post under.
And for what it is worth, I would guess that support for Labour in Auckland is somewhere between the two polls , and no matter what Labour have no hope this 2011 election.
Same conclusion as wtl but I went about it slightly differently:
If the Auckland sample in the Fairfax poll is approximately one third of the sample of people who expressed a party vote preference (i.e., 1000 – 16.2% of 1000 (i.e., the ‘undecideds’) = 838) then that gives a sample size for Auckland of about 279 (i.e., 838/3).
On an expected binomial percentage of, 20% support Labour and 80% don’t, then the Estimated Sampling Error table I’m looking at suggests that, for that sample size of between 200 and 300, the sampling error should be somewhere between 5.7 and 4.6% %. (If our estimate of Labour support is 50%, the error would be between 7.1 and 5.8%).
For the Herald digipoll, given that there would be approximately a 250 sample from Auckland (I forget whether or not the ‘undecideds’ were included in the 750 sample reported) then the sampling error, based on a 40%/60% estimate (i.e., the 38% found in the poll), would be within the following sampling error bounds – between 6.9 and 5.7%. (Ditto for the other estimates, as above).
So, if we assume that we can ignore the finite population correction factor (which we can – Auckland’s a big city), and also assume that the Herald poll was – at the 95% confidence limit – on the upside (i.e., 5.7% more than it ‘should’ be) and that the Fairfax poll was an underestimate at the lower edge of the 95% confidence level (i.e., 6.9% less than it ‘should’ be) we could explain 12.6% of the gap between the polls.
A more likely explanation is that one or both of the polls are systematically flawed in ways that compromise their results.
Then again, my stats skills aren’t what they used to be. Happy to be corrected.
A local National Party apparatchik has explained to me the Fairfax poll giving labour 20 percent support in Auckland is the accurate poll because the Herald is getting more and more left wing since Len Brown won the mayorality and so are their polls. Complete nonsense, but as good an explanation as any I guess.
Well if gallop-polls are so accurate why have a general,election. Have a gallop-poll and save thousands of dollars., Of course it would mean the Nats would win every time ,But that could cause a revolution which might be the answer.
The big issue for me is that this is another example of the MSM focusing more on the game,, polls, strategies and presidential style leadership comparisons, than on discussing polices & party teams.
The polls simply cannot be trusted. While they may have the total number required to reflect a snapshot of the nation, what we don’t know is who that number actually is. Is it random? If a third of the population do not have landlines [as many schools will indicate] then can the total in the poll be truly reflective of the wider community?
Here’s Keith Rankin on the importance of the ‘undecideds’ in polling and how polls are often misleadingly represented in the media. (Press ‘2’ on the video to go directly to Rankin’s interview).
Before the polls are conducted, the water supplying companies all over NZ get “secret instructions” to immediately put an undisclosed substance into the water supplies. It comes right from the top. The substance is alleged to have drug like effects, causing people to fall into a relaxed, light-hearted, trusting and fulfilled mood, leading them to feel unconcerned about everything and forgetting most of their worries and problems. The substance is supposed to contain a mixture of plasma ocytocin and prolactin.
Hence the polled group of people give the typicla kind of answers that are representative of the poll results we get presented by the media.
There is a corresponding effort made in most TV, radio, print and other media to emphasize the desired positive and negative aspects in political debate, planning and decisionmaking.
Some suspect that there may be involvement by an overseas based advisory agency, which has successfully led other politicians and parties to decisive victories.
Don’t worry, be happy, it is all in good hands!!!???
Jum: Truth is by mistaken persons or wrongdoers associated with IMMENSE DISCOMFORT, requiring rethinking, changes of mind, realisations, wake up scenarios, facing reality and making amends for previous wrong decisions and actions. So it is natural that few will endeavour to do this. It is also the dictator’s problem, because facing reality is associated with becoming honest an facing justice, which may in return pay a very harsh and serious price for the wrongdoings committed before. Who volunteers for this?
If South Auckland, West Auckland, PTown, Aranui and the rest of the Poly / TW / Westie suburbs are feeling the pinch of hard times on election day no amount of “polling propaganda” is going to help National.
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The Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...
Cancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...
A laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi, and Mema Paremata mō Tāmaki-Makaurau, Takutai Tarsh Kemp, will travel to the Gold Coast to strengthen ties with Māori in Australia next week (15-21 April). The visit, in the lead-up to the 9th Australian National Kapa haka Festival, will be an opportunity for both ...
The Green Party has today launched a step-by-step guide to help New Zealanders make their voice heard on the Government’s democracy dodging and anti-environment fast track legislation. ...
The National Government’s proposed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act will mean tenants can be turfed from their homes by landlords with little notice, Labour housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty said. ...
Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson is calling on all parties to support a common-sense change that’s great for the planet and great for consumers after her member’s bill was drawn from the ballot today. ...
A significant milestone has been reached in the fight to strike an anti-Pasifika and unfair law from the country’s books after Teanau Tuiono’s members’ bill passed its first reading. ...
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Hon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...
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Regional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges. “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...
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Distinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...
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Paul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...
Recreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...
The coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...
Overseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...
Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith is today travelling to Europe where he’ll update the United Nations Human Rights Council on the Government’s work to restore law and order. “Attending the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva provides us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while ...
Associate Agriculture Minister, Mark Patterson, formally reopened the world’s largest wool processing facility today in Awatoto, Napier, following a $50 million rebuild and refurbishment project. “The reopening of this facility will significantly lift the economic opportunities available to New Zealand’s wool sector, which already accounts for 20 per cent of ...
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The Government is delivering on its commitment to bring back the Three Strikes legislation, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee announced today. “Our Government is committed to restoring law and order and enforcing appropriate consequences on criminals. We are making it clear that repeat serious violent or sexual offending is not ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has today announced four new diplomatic appointments for New Zealand’s overseas missions. “Our diplomats have a vital role in maintaining and protecting New Zealand’s interests around the world,” Mr Peters says. “I am pleased to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the ...
New Zealand is contributing NZ$7 million to support communities affected by severe food insecurity and other urgent humanitarian needs in Ethiopia and Somalia, Foreign Minister Rt Hon Winston Peters announced today. “Over 21 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance across Ethiopia, with a further 6.9 million people ...
Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Paul Goldsmith is congratulating Mataaho Collective for winning the Golden Lion for best participant in the main exhibition at the Venice Biennale. "Congratulations to the Mataaho Collective for winning one of the world's most prestigious art prizes at the Venice Biennale. “It is good ...
The Government is reforming financial services to improve access to home loans and other lending, and strengthen customer protections, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly and Housing Minister Chris Bishop announced today. “Our coalition Government is committed to rebuilding the economy and making life simpler by cutting red tape. We are ...
“China remains a strong commercial opportunity for Kiwi exporters as Chinese businesses and consumers continue to value our high-quality safe produce,” Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. Mr McClay has returned to New Zealand following visits to Beijing, Harbin and Shanghai where he met ministers, governors and mayors and engaged in trade and agricultural events with the New ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...
New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa. The summit is co-hosted ...
A stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...
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Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners. “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
The protest outside the White House correspondents’ dinner hotel. Image: Anatolu video screenshot APR More than two dozen Palestinian journalists had called for a boycott of the dinner, writing an open letter urging their American colleagues not to attend. “You have a unique responsibility to speak truth to power and ...
“Our exporters should, therefore, be deeply concerned that the Fast-track Approvals Bill was not assessed for consistency with any of our free trade commitments prior to being introduced to the House,” says Gary Taylor, Chief Executive of the Environmental ...
NZCTU President Richard Wagstaff is calling on all political parties to support the new Member’s Bill from Labour’s workplace relations and safety spokesperson Camilla Belich MP that would ensure negligent companies are held accountable when their employees ...
A historian with an uncanny track record of predicting US election winners tells RNZ's Sunday Morning that President Biden looks to be on track for another term, but things could still go very wrong for him. ...
A historian with a track record of predicting US election winners tells RNZ's Sunday Morning that President Biden looks to be on track for another term, but things could still go wrong for him. ...
Ngaio Marsh House is one of Christchurch’s best kept secrets – and contains more than a few mysteries of its own.Trust Ngaio Marsh to leave more than a few mysteries scattered through her house long after her departure. For a start, there’s the curious concrete portal in the garden, ...
Appointment viewing has been lost to the mists of time, but memories of Montana Sunday Theatre can still be conjured by hitting play on a particular piece of classical music. “You’re not going to be able to sell it.” Over 30 years on, Karen Bieleski still recalls how the task ...
Performance Review King Luxon sat behind His massive polished oak desk. It is Performance Review time. There is a knock on the door. “Enter!” says the King. In steps Minister of Disabilities and Carer Pedicures, Penny Simmonds. “I can explain everything …” she begins. “Fine,” says King Luxon, pressing the ...
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Asia Pacific Report From France to Australia, university pro-Palestine protests in the United States have now spread to several countries with students pitching on-campus camps. And students at Columbia and other US universities remain defiant as campuses have witnessed the biggest protests since the anti-Vietnam war and anti-apartheid eras in ...
Analysis by Dr Bryce Edwards, Democracy Project (https://democracyproject.nz)New Zealand Government’s Fast Track legislation. Many criticisms are being made of the Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill, including by this writer. But as with everything in politics, every story has two sides, and both deserve attention. It’s important to understand what the Government ...
Tara Ward talks to presenter Naomi Toilalo about the new TV show that turns food waste into a three course feast. Naomi Toilalo is standing in the warehouse at Good Neighbour Tauranga, helping unpack the two-and-a-half tonnes of rejected food that will arrive at the community support hub that day. ...
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Megan Alatini takes us through her life in TV, including ‘terrible’ daytime TV, the class of Carol Hirschfeld and her most embarrassing TrueBliss moment. When she responded to a vague newspaper ad asking “do you have what it takes to be a popstar?” 25 years ago, Megan Alatini never guessed ...
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Toomaj and his resistance to tyranny through his songs have become an icon for the youth of Iran, so his sentence has hit the nation hard. Toomaj Salehi is not the first artist to pay the price for standing with the people. ...
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Working as a doctor in developing countries to help communities achieve better health outcomes is nothing short of a life goal for Jessica Tater. The University of Otago medical student has her sights firmly set on joining the international humanitarian organisation Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) when she qualifies ...
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Wow. Perhaps someone like Hooten would argue that Fairfax was much more reliable and that the 18.6% was just a margin of error or a misprint or an indication that Phil Goff is being challenged by ummm….
Herald poll surveyed 750 , Fairfax around 1000, both with margin of error of 3%.
Now come to the the rescue if your statistically minded, but looking at Auckland only i guess no more than a third of those surveyed would be from Auckland would that make the margin of error 9% ?, which sort of bridges half the gap. Be a good question for the respective pollign co’s to attempt to explain.
I did a two proportion z-test between two results, assuming that the samples sizes for Auckland were 1/3 of the total (i.e. 250 for Herald, 333 for Fairfax), and the resulting Z score was about 4.9. The p value for this difference is ~4.79e-7. In other words, it is very very unlikely that the difference can be accounted for by the sampling error of the polls.
Yeah one has to start calling in to question these polls I mean seriously is polling a tool for the future?
And if it is what shape will it take to give a more accurate story.
Polling has some accuracy when you’re taking a nationwide picture and focusing mostly on the two main parties.
When you start getting into regional concerns or trying to estimate parties under 10%, the only useful thing you can measure is the trends- the actual numbers have such a high ratio to inaccuracy that it’s ridiculous to speculate on them.
Most likely one or both of the numbers is/are rogue.
Labour polled from memory 36% in Auckland last election.
My very strong impression from spending hours and hours doorknocking and talking to people is that there is a return of support to Labour from those persuaded last time to vote for Smile and Wave.
The three Auckland by election results are also evidence of this. On the polling Labour should have lost Mt Albert and have been trounced in Botany and Te Tai Tokerau. There was a swing to Labour in each.
These bloody polls just provide diversions and weapons. Note every right winger, Hoots, Farrar, the slimy one et al are talking about this latest poll as if the results are carved in stone.
For them these polls are weapons to bash the left with no matter how dodgy their figures are.
hmm yeah, politically Murdochified polls
cos of continually delivering thjis crap ,read it enough times and hearing it enough times will hopefully make some left voters not bother going out to vote which boils down to
1= The fascist right are worried…..
I say keep up the good work-not a supporter of Goff- im a supporter of policies that benefit all not a select few
So keep the lies/bullshit the right are promoting going out on Twitter facebook-I index alot of these stories on my facebook page and joined a few groups etc etc
The word is out there regarding these tories dont you worry and its working
Maybe the polls are completely wrong. But we went through this all last election, with Labour supporters insisting that the polls were lying, that they didn’t sample cell-phones and that their sense from door-knocking was that things were going really well. And they turned out to be completely wrong and the aggregates of the main polls were a really accurate predictor of the final outcome.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2008
Not 3 months out, though.
And my position is still that National will probably take a bump below 50% in the actual campaign, and if they do then they are pretty much fresh out of friends – a few 1-3 MP coalition allies, creating not so much a “five headed monster” as a “four-pimpled teenager”. If National drop to the mid-40%, they might well not be able to form a government. Then the pressure will be on the Greens as to whether they want to support Labour or National.
If they have a choice of realistically creating a Labour government (eg one that isn’t Labour + Greens + NZ First + Mana + Maori) then they’ll go that way.
See my comment above (2.1). Perhaps the aggregate of the polls will be correct this time as well. Averaging polls should certainly give a better picture than one poll. But the inconsistency between polls is telling us that there is something very wrong with their methodology (in at least some polls) – we are in NOT looking at random error introduced by sampling error. Therefore, we have no idea of the true ‘error’ associated with the polls and cannot be sure that there is no systematic bias.
On that basis, we seriously have to be questioning their results and stop thinking they can give us any indication of the level of support for various parties beyond a rough guide. That is, I have no doubt that the support for Labour is ‘low’ at this time and support for National is ‘high’. But exactly how ‘low’ and how ‘high’ is anyone’s guess. Perhaps we should just forget the polls, go through the election campaign, and see what happens on Nov 26?
I don’t think you have to be a head in the sand ‘the polls are all wrong’ type to acknowledge that something is seriously wrong with one of those polls.
It is not that the polls are wrong – it is now a question of which one is right.
As far as I know, the last time round the polling companies held up how they were all in agreement with each other as evidence of their accuracy. Now we are seeing wild variations that are not just at the edges of the margin of error but well outside them. This Fairfax poll in particular is so at variance that I can only think that it has been designed to serve an agenda – to panic Labour voters and deliver another “2002” style result, only in reverse.
three years is a long time in technology, especially when incomes at the bottom have been falling and squeezing things like the fixed line phone bill off the agenda. Personally, I regard these huge variations in results as indicating the polling methodology of Fairfax polls at least is now very suspect.
What on earth just happened? I wrote a long answer to this about why it was reasonable to assume that low-income people would actually prefer a fixed-line phone – and it vanished! WTFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF?
[There’s nothing pending or in the trash – it never made it to the server. See your comment on Open mike re connection “burp” – that will be it. r0b]
@ Danyl: Both are possible. The “FearFacts” polls are bent (and wrong) and the ultimate election results somewhat mirror the poll predictions. You do not need to be a genius to work out how that could happen.
Apparantly in the labour strongholds in the last election turnout was very poor and you have wonder why.Was it dissatisfaction with Labour or was it that a lot of poor kiwis work saturdays to make ends meet and thought theres no point voting because the polls give it to National. Apparantly 200000 labour voters didn’t even turn up. So a large part of the result was not swinging labour voters but absent labour voters.
In the 2008 election National only got 43% of the vote but becuase Winstone missed the 5% by a whisker everyone got more seats proportionally. Then act managed to get into parliament well below the 5% level and that threw the numbers. The last election was not a massive vitory for the National Party but a series of tacticle manouvers with the aid of media manipulated scandal by the NZ Herald and the police etc.
Had those 200000 ( 7% of voters ) Labour voters had made it to the polls and Winstone not had bullshit police enquiries hanging over him and got his 5% the election results would have been a very differrent story, possibly with a hung parliament.
Remember the 2004 was being called for National and they lost didn’t they. Cellphone only households amoungst the poor have grown quite a bit since then.
These polls that are swinging wildly between polling companies and obviously must have a far greater margin of error than the 3% claimed.
Amongst my friends the Fairfax poll would have to be optimistic for Labour and the Herald poll fantasy
piss off fake Monty, find your own name to post under.
And for what it is worth, I would guess that support for Labour in Auckland is somewhere between the two polls , and no matter what Labour have no hope this 2011 election.
Same conclusion as wtl but I went about it slightly differently:
If the Auckland sample in the Fairfax poll is approximately one third of the sample of people who expressed a party vote preference (i.e., 1000 – 16.2% of 1000 (i.e., the ‘undecideds’) = 838) then that gives a sample size for Auckland of about 279 (i.e., 838/3).
On an expected binomial percentage of, 20% support Labour and 80% don’t, then the Estimated Sampling Error table I’m looking at suggests that, for that sample size of between 200 and 300, the sampling error should be somewhere between 5.7 and 4.6% %. (If our estimate of Labour support is 50%, the error would be between 7.1 and 5.8%).
For the Herald digipoll, given that there would be approximately a 250 sample from Auckland (I forget whether or not the ‘undecideds’ were included in the 750 sample reported) then the sampling error, based on a 40%/60% estimate (i.e., the 38% found in the poll), would be within the following sampling error bounds – between 6.9 and 5.7%. (Ditto for the other estimates, as above).
So, if we assume that we can ignore the finite population correction factor (which we can – Auckland’s a big city), and also assume that the Herald poll was – at the 95% confidence limit – on the upside (i.e., 5.7% more than it ‘should’ be) and that the Fairfax poll was an underestimate at the lower edge of the 95% confidence level (i.e., 6.9% less than it ‘should’ be) we could explain 12.6% of the gap between the polls.
A more likely explanation is that one or both of the polls are systematically flawed in ways that compromise their results.
Then again, my stats skills aren’t what they used to be. Happy to be corrected.
Useful analysis, thanks.
A local National Party apparatchik has explained to me the Fairfax poll giving labour 20 percent support in Auckland is the accurate poll because the Herald is getting more and more left wing since Len Brown won the mayorality and so are their polls. Complete nonsense, but as good an explanation as any I guess.
Don’t believe either poll, Labour’s support is way lower then that.
Well if gallop-polls are so accurate why have a general,election. Have a gallop-poll and save thousands of dollars., Of course it would mean the Nats would win every time ,But that could cause a revolution which might be the answer.
So, this would be the Herald-Digipoll that the Herald reported as:
Inspiring stuff.
The big issue for me is that this is another example of the MSM focusing more on the game,, polls, strategies and presidential style leadership comparisons, than on discussing polices & party teams.
Oh, thanks, Ben. I’ve had an accident & will be typing with my left-hand only for a while – and I’m right handed, so it’s a slow business.
If Labour get their shit together and start working as a team right now we’ll get rid of these tory pricks in November.
If they don’t, we wont.
And that’s my 2c on what the polls are worth.
edit: Carol, how many times have I told you to put your tags away when you’ve finished playing with them? 😉
Yes, I know, Felix. I didn’t check immediately after I posted, then it was too late.
Someone really needs to put an end to all these italics. Did that help? Edit: Nope. We need a moderator.
[Ben: fixed]
The polls simply cannot be trusted. While they may have the total number required to reflect a snapshot of the nation, what we don’t know is who that number actually is. Is it random? If a third of the population do not have landlines [as many schools will indicate] then can the total in the poll be truly reflective of the wider community?
Big difference, these polls are about as accurate as the ones that says the greens are at 11%
Here’s Keith Rankin on the importance of the ‘undecideds’ in polling and how polls are often misleadingly represented in the media. (Press ‘2’ on the video to go directly to Rankin’s interview).
Before the polls are conducted, the water supplying companies all over NZ get “secret instructions” to immediately put an undisclosed substance into the water supplies. It comes right from the top. The substance is alleged to have drug like effects, causing people to fall into a relaxed, light-hearted, trusting and fulfilled mood, leading them to feel unconcerned about everything and forgetting most of their worries and problems. The substance is supposed to contain a mixture of plasma ocytocin and prolactin.
Hence the polled group of people give the typicla kind of answers that are representative of the poll results we get presented by the media.
There is a corresponding effort made in most TV, radio, print and other media to emphasize the desired positive and negative aspects in political debate, planning and decisionmaking.
Some suspect that there may be involvement by an overseas based advisory agency, which has successfully led other politicians and parties to decisive victories.
Don’t worry, be happy, it is all in good hands!!!???
The invisible hand that is putting us at the front of the queue for some good screwing. Yippee!
HC
As usual, when you try to tell people the truth nobody listens…
Jum: Truth is by mistaken persons or wrongdoers associated with IMMENSE DISCOMFORT, requiring rethinking, changes of mind, realisations, wake up scenarios, facing reality and making amends for previous wrong decisions and actions. So it is natural that few will endeavour to do this. It is also the dictator’s problem, because facing reality is associated with becoming honest an facing justice, which may in return pay a very harsh and serious price for the wrongdoings committed before. Who volunteers for this?
If South Auckland, West Auckland, PTown, Aranui and the rest of the Poly / TW / Westie suburbs are feeling the pinch of hard times on election day no amount of “polling propaganda” is going to help National.