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- Date published:
10:22 am, July 21st, 2024 - 70 comments
Categories: Donald Trump, elections, International, polls, us politics -
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I can’t remember American politics ever being this weird.
Instead of being in Jail Donald Trump is riding a wave of support and risks being returned to the White House as President.
The graphics from the failed assassination attempt on him will dominate this election campaign and give him a considerable advantage.
I am really impressed that immediately after having a bullet graze his ear he had the sense of mind to shout “fight fight fight” while holding up a defiant fist.
And I am amazed at the level of loyalty being shown to him. He has a Vice Presidential candidate who once described him as America’s Hitler but who is now clearly in full support. And Nikki Hayley, his opponent during the Primaries who has previously refused to endorse him, had a prime time slot at the conference where she made something clear, that he had her full endorsement.
There was talk about Trump portraying himself as the great unifier. In a rambling 90 minute RNC acceptance speech which should raise serious questions about his cognitive abilities he did no such thing.
And the conservative manifesto Project 2025, prepared by the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation, is raising greater and greater levels of concern. And Trump claims to know nothing about it.
From the Guardian:
Project 2025 wants to gut civil service, putting far more roles in federal government in the hands of a president as political appointees, which would erode checks and balances. Trump, for his part, tried to do the same in 2020 shortly before losing the election, an idea known as “Schedule F”.
Project 2025 proposes mass deportations of more than 11 million undocumented immigrants and stringent rules on migrants. So does Trump, and so does the Republican National Committee’s platform.
Trump wants to get rid of the federal education department, as does Project 2025, echoing a long-held policy wish on the right. The project details how this could happen and other ways to give states more control over education, at the potential expense of students. Both Trump and the project share goals of limiting LGBTQ+ rights and diversity initiatives in schools.
Trump often rails against cities run by Democrats, especially Washington DC, and talks about ways to crack down on them, renewing the idea he attempted in his first term to withhold federal funds as a way to enforce immigration policies. Project 2025 has some ideas on how he could do that more forcefully next time.
That a convicted felon who illegally paid money to a porn star to hide a story of his infidelity with her and who played an active part in an attempt to undermine the last election result should have what looks like a really good chance of winning in November is frankly unbelievable. But here we are.
Joe Biden has not helped himself. His level of mental decline is even greater that that displayed by Trump. And Trump has a level of physical power that Biden does not have.
The democratic voices urging Biden to stand down are getting louder. Even Barack Obama has said that he thinks Biden’s path to victory is greatly diminished and that Biden needs to seriously consider the viability of his candidacy.
538’s poll of polls suggest that in the last month support has gone from neck and neck to Trump having a 3% advantage.
Biden is said to be weighing his options. If he is going to drop out then realistically he needs to do so soon.
Time will tell …
Update: Biden has announced he is standing down and has endorsed Kamala Harris as his successor as candidate.
I can't but stand back in wonder at the coherence, loyalty and unity of the Republicans to support their egregiously criminal rapist candidate, standing ready to run straight back into the arms of global tyranny, rated by most as one of the worst 3 performing presidents of all time, …
… versus the disunity and chaos of the Democrats who are turning on one of the highest-performing presidents we've seen since Kennedy with massive economic expansion, record low unemployment, strengthened leadeadership on multiple fronts including healthcare and personal debt, rescued the economy out of the pandemic, onshored huge volumes of manufacturing, strong leadership of international alliances, resolute in re-unifying Europe on multiple fronts, far and away the most pro-union president the US has seen since FDR, and the moral courage to let his own son be tried and go to jail.
Yeah but the polls …
How much are Biden's policies and actions due to him, and how much is he more of a front man for more cognitively able behind the scenes Democrat Party leaders/influencers?
None.
Every one of the policy initiatives I cited are from Biden to his Cabinet in relevant portfolios: Health, Transport, Treasury, State, and Justice.
Nor did any of them originate from Harris.
How do you know they essentially were from Biden and not from his advisors and that Biden then issued the policies/actions, putting his name to them?
So it goes like this, for the uninitiated:
the candidate US president puts forward a manifesto of promises. They are mandated through the party Primary process in which each candidiate has their own policy preferences. The party chooses the candidate and their policy suite. You can dig up the history of that for Biden yourself. Or check out the differences for example between Sanders and Clinton.
Once he was elected, Biden chose his own Cabinet which are (usually) non-elected leadership specialists in their fields, but a few like Buttigieg are pulled over from Senate or major industry . They execute those policies.
Not our country. Who cares.
[After all those previous moderations of your comments you still continue to troll here. No point wasting our time on you; take 6 months off – Incognito]
You have no idea.
Mod note
Lots like this expressing the same sentiment;
and
I would prefer Biden to Trump any day.
But why are the US Democrats all "pro-middle class". What happened to the working and under class?
Don't be fooled by Vance into thinking that the Republican Party is the new champion for the working people of the United States.
I know it was only 3 years ago but does anyone remember the covid-response $1400 cheques Biden's team mailed out to every single citizen?
You can check out the rest of the American Rescue Plan here, the biggest-ever stimulus to the US since the New Deal:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/legislation/2021/01/20/president-biden-announces-american-rescue-plan/
Or check out the effect on working people of the Inflation Reduction Act:
– Medicare finally able to negotiate high-cost drugs like Insulin to have the entire price capped
– Medicare beneficiaries paying $0 out of pocket for many items
– Petrol prices down despite the inflationary peak due to the release of Strategic Oil Reserves,
– massive climate change investment which has already proven successful and forming a strengthened grid.
Biden defeated inflation faster and more effectively than any other leader on earth post-COVID including Australia.
And so far he's the only US President to stand on a picket line with working people, break the management who opposed unions, and celebrate the wins.
It's so easy to show what Biden has done for working people, compared to the Republicans.
Oh, I have NO doubt that Biden is better for 'working people' than Trump.
But, why is there always a focus on "the middle class" in Democrat rhetoric.
The Democrats have clearly been focused on winning back some of the working class support that voted for Trump, especially working class men of various ethnicities.
Only history will accurately judge why Trump's mid-west and southern base of working people consistently voted against their own economic and healthcare and inflation and tax interests.
It's an aspirational point – Biden is vocally pro-union, and what he wants is a society where the working class have sufficiently decent jobs that they become the middle class i.e. an expansion of the middle class.
Who cares. Not our country. Main thing is Trump is less likely to stir up trouble overseas. His recent comments in Ukraine and Taiwan are encouraging.
🙄
All those arguments were made by Biden and by others on his behalf. You may remember that "Bidenomics" went down like a lead balloon a few months ago.
Instead there are good reasons, aside from his senile dementia, why he has steadily fallen behind Trump since late 2023 in both national polls (though of course it's not a direct election so such polls are only indicative of trends) and the crucial swing states.
The reasons are simple:
– The economy didn't need the stimulus of the American Rescue Plan. In 2021 it just needed the feet of government taken off its throat to roar back to life.
– Instead that massive rush of money created inflation, which has now baked into the cake things like a 27% increase in general food prices that will take years to catch up with wage and salary increases. In fact nearly everything is up by at least 20%, including massively unaffordable houses. All that pain that's hurting people is not alleviated by low unemployment and good GDP growth.
– Every one of those huge pieces of legislation is down to Nancy Pelosi, one of the most effective House Speakers in decades. In the past Biden might have played a role in negotiating with the GOP but with Nancy there was no need. He just had to sign them into law.
And on a couple of specific points:
The SOR was not supposed to be used to help out in an election where a candidate and their party is getting hurt by high gas prices, as the Democrats were in 2022. Past Presidents, both Democrat and GOP, did not use it for those reasons. The thing was established as a backup in times of direct war, and done as a direct result of the two oil shocks of the 1970's. Using it now was just blatant partisan electioneering rather than doing right by the country. I note that the modern spirit of partisanship also saw Nancy & Co. reject Trump's request to merely top it up several years ago – at about $24/barrel. Now it will cost a lot more.
Inflation was running at 1.9% when Biden took over and rose to a peak of 9% under him thanks to all the spending stupidity. And Presidents don't defeat inflation, the Federal Reserve does, and although it's down they haven't got it below 3%. Hence the ongoing pain.
Working people are not stupid. They knew Biden was gaslighting them about their personal lives, which are very hard right now. Hence the poor polls and hence he's gone.
There are many articles about the causes of property inflation in the USA.
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=The+role+of+funds+in+dirving+up+%20US%20property+values
You could also look at QE, clue Trump era.
The impact of the pandemic on global logistics (as well as war in Ukraine and disentanglement from Chinese supply) and disruption to local supply supply also have nothing to do with Bidenomics.
and disruption to local labour
supplysupply.And another data point supporting the claim that Nancy Pelosi was the woman who got things done, not Biden, from the WSJ today:
And there's this carry-on, too.
@cbouzy
Fuck off. I voted for Biden, and you will not nullify my vote.
https://x.com/cbouzy/status/1814462344895873489
It's a grievous mistake to think that in 2024 a politician cannot win if their policy platform makes no rational, economic or moral sense.
If it was true, then NZ would not now be governed by a selection of the worst people in our society. The left (and the liberal centre even more so) is currently on the losing end of a decades long social transformation, taking place at the level of worldview, culture and popular conceptions of what constitutes 'commonsense'.
Yet it is particularly stupid to think that Republican irrationality and incoherence and implied fascist revulsion against the rule of law is superior to the pure facts of Democrats' effective progressive policy delivery.
Maybe the pumping of billions and billions into social media and commentators on Fox News to create a spirit of perpetual outrage, by self-interested kleptocracies in US and elsewhere has had a great deal in shaping the narrative.
Because they're either temporarily embarrassed millionaires or turkeys who vote for Christmas?
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-share-of-low-wage-workers-in-america/
According to that article, there's been a historic rise in the pay of low-waged workers from 2019 to 2023, but that rise was below the rate of inflation.
Maybe low-waged people voting for Trump is because they don't see that much improvement in their daily lives under a Democrat president – plus maybe taking the Republican rhetoric at face value?
Last place aversion, I reckon. As relevant today as it was when LBJ called it sixty years ago.
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/lbj-convince-the-lowest-white-man/
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/occupy-wall-street-psychology/
Sounds about right:
American politics is as weird as democratic politics ever gets.
The Americans have a pathological penchant for selecting the worst examples of humanity to be their leaders.
Look at their 1984 election. Look at the two primary candidates – Walter Mondale and Ronald Reagan, each more stupid than the other.
Is that the best that the world's primary democratic power can produce?
What a sad excuse for democracy the US presidential elections have become. Problem is the Americans have no idea.
Check out the difference in actual on-ground delivery between Biden and Ardern. By NZ standards she was a hero for 2 years, a bright shining leadership star, and yet so little of what she proposed endures. So young, so heroic, so little to show for it.
Biden, an ageing and low-charisma candidate, has ensured most of his big wins have really long term positive effects.
If I had the choice of Biden or Ardern I would go for Biden even at 82.
At least some of that is system differences – it's so easy to legislate here that cancelling the previous government's policies is nothing like as difficult as it is in the USA.
I happened upon a very interesting interview between former MI5 director, Eliza Manningham-Buller and former MI6 director John Sawyer that took place some two months ago. The entire interview is worth a watch, but they touch upon the subject of Biden and Trump between 54 and 60 minutes in.
Manningtham – Buller visibly shuddered at the prospect of a new Trump administration. Part of what she had to say and I paraphrase "Trump is a serious threat to democracy, a serious threat to NATO and a very serious threat to the future of Ukraine.
John Sawyer concurred and listed all the democracies around the world who stood to be threatened by a Trump administration, and he said those closest to the US would fare the worst. It included Australia and NZ.
Frightening stuff.
It is evident that Trump's campaign is a modern day copy of Hitler's campaign in the early 1930s and anyone who imagines he can't succeed is living in a dream world. For decades there has been a general dumbing down of the US education systems, including the ability of the average American to think critically. They will fall for his lying, bombastic and chaotic rhetoric in the same way the Germans did in the 1930s.
Interesting that it is nearly 100 years since the rise of Hitler began. A one in one hundred years occurrence?
Worth noting that the average German back then was a lot better educated than their US equivalent now. And they still swallowed the nonsense.
"better educated than their US equivalent now".
Your statement interests me. What evidence do you have for your claim?
Don't know about a comparison between the average German 'back then', and their US equivalent now, but adult literacy rates provide one 'apples to apples' contrast: Germany (& NZ) – 99% literacy; USA – 86% literacy; World – 86.7%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_literacy_rate#List_of_UN_member_and_observer_states_by_adult_literacy_rate
I am on the same side of the fence as most of you on this one. The prospect of another Trump term doesn't bear thinking about.
The problem for the Democrats is I think the election is unwinnable if Biden stays on.
It beggars belief that a nation the size of the US can't come up with two better candidates.
I think they need to go out of the box and pick someone who can counter Trump in the swing states. That would mean someone who has more working class appeal.
Go ahead name that Democratic hero who currently rates 5% or more and will defeat Trump.
It astounds me how the left convince themselves into defeat.
I can think of three.
Gavin Newsom
Roy Cooper
and
Andy Beshear
Beshear is pretty much unknown outside of Kentucky and his position on guns and abortion would be super uncomfortable for lot of Democrats.
Cooper has potential, but again lacks the national profile and name recognition. Remember that it's only 4 months(ish) until the election and most voters don't engage with politics on a day-to-day basis.
Newsom would be ideal. He's got a genuine national profile, legitimate progressive bona fides, he's a great debater, and the republicans absolutely hate him.
But unless Harris is also willing to step aside there's no way it's not going to be her. The democrats are going to have to 100% coalesce behind a candidate yesterday.
In relation to Beshear, it's not democrats that need won over, it's the swing voters. And his positions will probably win over swing voters.
Given that a swing of something like 20,000 votes in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin will be the deciding factor in the election, I'd be incredibly leery of anything that might dampen democratic turnout: including selecting a moderate conservative that likes guns and hates abortion.
I agree that Beshear has genuine appeal to swing voters and potentially non-MAGA republicans. But you can't afford to win them if the cost is splitting the relatively broad democrat coalition.
Biden is the most experienced candidate in the history of the USA. Some of that is obviously that he is old so has a lot of experience, but it's not like he doesn't have a strong CV or voter base.
It doesn't matter how able he might be, the perception is that he is doddery, and the electorate will vote on their perception.
Trump is ramping up and showing defiance – Joe is ramping down and his supporters showing desperation. If President Biden begins pardoning his nearest and dearest we will know the his end is nigh. Any presidential pardons will trumpet their otherwise danger from Trump when they become fair game after his election.
American politics this weird? Let’s see…
An old politician versus another old one.
One a career politician, the other a lifetime businessman, a fraudster, with recognised moral shortcomings and a history of dealings with legal agencies. With the imminence of a number more.
Nothing particularly weird. Well maybe something …
Seems in the past couple of years Biden has done a couple of diabolical things – got old and had a son face the law.
His opponent? Got old? Yes, as well as a couple of other things.
Fomented a riot at the Capitol? That’s just the start. The most remarkable thing, the weirdest thing, is even in the NZ median, is the determination to portray Biden a the one who has done something wrong while his opponent becomes more of a saint. Virtually the same age.
It's glaringly obvious that Trump's political opponents, perhaps with the connivance of the democrats tried to take him out. They failed miserably, and now the US will likely have an isolationist president, which will be good for world peace.
Really? Have you got some evidence to back up those claims? America is awash with angry young men with semi-automatic weapons. They shoot up schools, picture theaters, concerts and parades. Any good reasons this was just another one of those – helped mainly by some miss-communication between the Federal and Local Police?
That is an interesting take. I am pleased you have been put in moderation because you are clearly trolling.
Wei off the beam.
The Dems can't blame the Repubs, the NRA, the ProLifers, The Party, the deplorables, the racists, the anti-woke, the media, the superPACS, the- anything or anybody. They chose a dud. Unelectable. A Hipkins would get more votes than Biden. Even a Cunliffe would get more votes. I hope they have a counrty to win back in 2028.
Trump told the boat and battery story, again. And as anyone who's cared for dementia patients knows, his repetition of this irrelevant, inane yarn shows just how far down the gurgler his melon has gone.
Not Democrats. Joe Biden and Democrats.
Doesn't sound like Biden/Harris has been written off.
@TeamPelosi
.
@JoeBiden and Democrats delivered 15.7 million jobs (443,000 in North Carolina alone!) along with transformative investments in climate action, infrastructure and a clean energy future — and with BidenHarris and Congressional Democrats working For The People, WE'RE NOT DONE YET!
https://x.com/TeamPelosi/status/1814873187982991860
Hey, hey! Ho, ho! Genocide Joe has gone gone gone
Nixon was forced out over Watergate, sotto voce Vietnam war
Biden was forced out by his health problems, sotto voce Gaza genocide?
Will a Harris Presidency represent a change in direction over supplying US weapons and support for the slaughter in Gaza?
https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-19-07-2024/#comment-2005290
Trump vs Biden – Biden needs to lead by 2% in the general poll to win the electoral college and yet he was falling further behind.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
Harris has better favourability than Biden.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/political-leaders
I'm pretty sure Kim Jong Un and Putin have better favourability with US electors than Biden right now.
The sad thing is, very little of it is his fault.
I suspect that in any other time and place he'd probably be recognized as an incredibly successful President that navigated the tail end of a global pandemic, rebuilt the American economy, and fought for genuine progressive reforms.
I just hope when the history of his presidency is written, he, in his own words, is compared to the alternative rather than the almighty.
Vale Joe Biden. You last act as a serious servant of the American people is your noblest. Enjoy your final years.
Should Biden step down as President?
Republicans claim Biden being unfit to be a candidate for the presidency, Biden is unfit to be president.
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4784550-house-republicans-call-biden-resign/
Reagan served till January 1989, his falling asleep at cabinet meetings not being a thing if the nominee GHWB was present.
Should Biden hand over executive power to Harris?.
My opinion, President Harris has better chance of beating Trump, than candidate Harris.
Right now the American people will be trying to imagine what sort of President they think Kamala Harris would be.
The American voting public, especially swing voters, need to know for certain, what sort of president President will Kamala Harris be. The best way for providing that certainty, to show the American people how great a Harris presidency could be for America, is for President Biden, (on the same health grounds that he stood down from his candidacy), stand down from his Presidency.
President Biden standing down will take the wind out of the sails of the Republican campaign calling for him to stand down, that will be dominating the debate if he remains.
Early voting in 55 days so you won't have long to get proven one way or the other.
Is history repeating?
Will President Harris be the best US president of our lifetime?
Seven weeks out from the 2017 general election, Andrew Little stands down as the leader of the New Zealand Labour Party. By stepping down, Andrew Little gave this country the best Prime Minister of my lifetime.
From History: Mondale, (who IMO was the Good guy) vs "vader" Reagan.
hmmm…
Besides that….there was probably much more "misspoke"
And of course Reagans bloody paw prints in South America
Anyway, to defeat Trump (IMO a truly dangerous person) the American Left must get solid. Full activation to win !
The racist, nativist shit thrown at Obama was bad as was the vile, sexist shit thrown at Hillary. Just wait until they start on Harris, the brown daughter of immigrants married to a Jew.
/
Josh Marshall:
.
This isn’t what I want to be discussing right now. But it’s so urgent that it’s necessary. Donald Trump and Chris LaCivita are about to hit Kamala Harris with an avalanche of racist and sexist attacks and a ton of slut-shaming. Democrats across the board need to be saying now what we all know which is that this will bring out the very worst of Trump. Racism and sexism are his brand. Charlottesville is his brand. You can’t just be on the receiving end of this stuff. Trump is about to show the kind of gutter white nationalist and racist pol he is. Force the press and all observers to see this totally predictable move through that prism.
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/a-small-matter-of-the-politics
[sigh]. Yeah. It's not going to be pretty. A lot of the outcome will depend on how strongly the mainstream media support Harris, and how much money goes to her.
The public's liberal shift from Clinton to Obama was marked by the preceding shifts in funding and the media.
And they're off.
@Shayan86
This digitally-altered image of Kamala Harris posing alongside Jeffrey Epstein is being shared in the wake of Joe Biden's endorsement of her as the new Democratic nominee. The real image, captured in 2015, shows Harris posing with her husband Douglas Emhoff.
https://x.com/Shayan86/status/1815143449516990894
Short thread.
wiczipedia
11 hours ago
In 2020 I led a study investigating gendered abuse and disinformation against women political candidates. We found 336,000 pieces of abuse or disinfo targeting 13 candidates across 6 social media platforms. SEVENTY EIGHT PERCENT of that targeted Kamala Harris. After Biden’s endorsement, here are some narratives and tropes we should look out for: (1/)
https://www.threads.net/@wiczipedia/post/C9soPVYvHe-