Yes it is

53 comments on “Yes it is ”

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1. Robert Atack 1

   31 May 2015 at 2:55 pm

   Yep we face 10,000 years worth of methane lifetimes in the next TEN. That is what getting to 400 ppm CO2 in about 1.7% of the time it has taken in the past will produce, as the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, the clatherates (?), and the Tundra are only just starting to catch up with 400 ppm.

   The numbers of people dying of heat stroke are way under the actual real deaths, they don’t include heat induced heart attacks for one thing. And I just learnt if you don’t cool down at night it gets worse the next day, so the deaths could go exponential ?
   I read 80,000 died in Europe in 2003, surly that would mean at least 100,000 Indians?
   • RedLogix 1.1

     31 May 2015 at 3:09 pm

     And I just learnt if you don’t cool down at night it gets worse the next day, so the deaths could go exponential ?

     Yes from experience this is true. If it doesn’t drop below say about 30 degC by midnight the body doesn’t recover and over a period of about a week the stress builds. By the end of two weeks with daytime temperatures in the 40’s and night-times in the 30’s or worse, and the elderly, infirm or vulnerable start dying in mass numbers. Even healthy adults start to struggle.

     I’ve long believed that this is will be the first and most compelling sign of climate change – that some areas of the world will experience extreme heat-waves that will kill of millions within a matter of days.

     It will just take one or two such events and suddenly entire areas of the planet will have to be abandoned.
     • Colonial Rawshark 1.1.1

       31 May 2015 at 3:22 pm

       India is labouring horrendously from the heat at the moment. The suffering must be hideous.
       • schwen 1.1.1.1

         1 June 2015 at 8:13 am

         it’s a problem of their own making. If they want to dig up and burn the amount of coal they do, well, there are repercussions and consequences…..
         • Colonial Rawshark 1.1.1.1.1

           1 June 2015 at 8:24 pm

           Just remember that in the last 100 years it has been the UK and USA and other western countries who have burnt the most fossil fuels, on the way to becoming rich and powerful.
           • maui 1.1.1.1.1.1

             1 June 2015 at 8:35 pm

             Yep, and if the rich western countries had any sense they would be throwing their expertise and money behind getting developing countries off fossil fuels as quickly as possible. The west has done very nicely using cheap labour from the third world, time to pay something back at least.. We’re all in this together after all.
             • the pigman …

               1 June 2015 at 8:56 pm

               I was gonna say this particular poster has been posting some pretty colourful non-sequiturs in the past week or so (I wondered whether it was some kinda bot-auto-posting thingy), but perhaps Mr. Wolfgang is more on point than any of us could imagine 😉
               • Anne …

                 1 June 2015 at 9:11 pm

                 I’m sure I saw a couple of ‘very strange” responses from this ‘Wolfgang’ a few hours ago and then they disappeared. It is either a disturbed individual or as you say the pigman some kinda bot-auto posting thingy. Whatever, it would be nice if he/she/it was bundled off permanently into the ether.

                 Oops – its gone again?
                 • te reo putake …

                   1 June 2015 at 9:22 pm

                   Spam, Anne. Well, for the most part.There’s screeds of it and it’s weirdly compelling. Like a Burroughs cut up of a Jeremy Kyle Show transcript.
     • Draco T Bastard 1.1.2

       31 May 2015 at 3:38 pm

       It will just take one or two such events and suddenly entire areas of the planet will have to be abandoned.

       IMO, the equator won’t be habitable by humans sometime mid-century. This means that there will be hundreds of millions of people looking to migrate to cooler climes and there’s really nowhere for them to go without over-stressing the local environment and that’s without the stress that climate change will have on that environment.

       The Guardian article tells me that that migration will be starting soon if it hasn’t already.
       • Colonial Rawshark 1.1.2.1

         31 May 2015 at 3:48 pm

         Check out the people drowning in the Med
         • Macro 1.1.2.1.1

           31 May 2015 at 10:14 pm

           You don’t have to go to India for record heat waves either
           http://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/alaska-sets-new-record-earliest-day-temperatures-90s?utm_content=buffer4197f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
           IMO this is the start of a huge jump in global temps. The pacific has been accummulating huge amounts of heat over the past 18 years (the “pause” or hiatus, or “no warming in 18 years”- depending on your religion). Now its appears it is moving into a sustained El Nino the like of which has not been seen since 1997.
           http://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/775/
           “Predicted ocean temperatures in the central Pacific for the southern spring 2015 are on average 2.4°C above normal—well past our +0.8°C threshold for El Niño “
           • Colonial Rawshark 1.1.2.1.1.1

             2 June 2015 at 5:20 pm

             It’s a problem – and if this is the start of a Rapid Anthropogenic Climate Shift (I coined the term just now) our political classes Left to Right are not ready to respond correctly to this.
             • Macro …

               2 June 2015 at 10:14 pm

               These series of graphs on ocean heat content and sea level rise are cause for concern.
               https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/
               The oceans have been, and still are, the major heat sink on the Planet and over the past decade and a half, for one reason or another, have been taking an even greater proportion of the heat. but every now and again they spew it out.
               People – especially governments – have been lulled into a false sense of security with global surface temperatures appearing to have slowed in their rise.
2. Poission 2

   31 May 2015 at 3:14 pm

   The literature,

   http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2814%2962114-0/abstract

   And analysis.

   http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2815%2960897-2/fulltext?rss%3Dyes
   • dukeofurl 2.1

     31 May 2015 at 4:01 pm

     They are saying:
     “Gasparrini and colleagues4 report that, first, cold-related deaths outnumbered heat-related deaths by a factor of nearly 20, overall. Second, deaths attributable to moderately non-optimum temperatures substantially outnumbered those attributable to extreme temperatures”

     I could think of a number of medical reasons why the deaths are skewed to cold rather than hot.
     Then, you have a very hot day followed by a cooler night, but when you have a very cold day, the night might not be much colder ?
   • Murray Simmonds 2.2

     1 June 2015 at 8:17 pm

     Thanks, Poission – useful links.

     My interpretation of this is is that when it gets too hot you can always go stand under a cold shower. or leap into the nearest water-hole, river, lake, swimming pool , bathtup or whatever to cool down. (Unless others beat you to it first). This tends on the whole to be roughly true regardless of your socioeconomic status.

     When it gets too cold however, energy is required to redress the body-temperature problem. There are few places in the world that posses, for example, naturally occuring hot springs. Energy generally costs money and so the options are more limited for those who live in cold climates and are at the same time economically “stressed”.

     Hence the imbalance in death-rates in the two articles you quoted.

     Sounds crazy? Probably is!
3. Paul 3

   31 May 2015 at 3:57 pm

   Read Gwynne Dyers ‘Climate Wars.’
   Sobering.
4. One Anonymous Bloke 4

   31 May 2015 at 6:53 pm

   Hardly a glimpse of the future, considering the Russian and European heatwaves of 2010 and 2003 killed 55k and 71k respectively.

   It’s a vision of the present. It will get worse before it gets better.
   • exkiwiforces 4.1

     31 May 2015 at 8:13 pm

     The weather god’s here are either crazy or drunk here in NT at the moment because it has been raining here all weekend and it suppose to be the dry season. So someone has bugger up season and i wonder who they are?
   • dukeofurl 4.2

     31 May 2015 at 10:06 pm

     The Russian heatwave is considered to be a 500 year event and is not considered to be related to human caused warming. ( it was very high temperatures over about 2 months). Its considered similar the 1936 US heatwave

     But of course higher temperatures and above previous averages will continue because of warming

     India had a heatwave back in 2010 along with parts of Asia and Europe, so the one in India may not be that signifiv=cant
     • Macro 4.2.1

       31 May 2015 at 10:19 pm

       “The Russian heatwave is considered to be a 500 year event and is not considered to be related to human caused warming”
       Wrong!
       http://www.nature.com/news/2004/041129/full/news041129-6.html
       • dukeofurl 4.2.1.1

         1 June 2015 at 12:00 pm

         Wrong

         Surely you realise something published in 2004 isnt relevant to an event in 2010.

         NOAA doesnt agree with you regarding this 500 year event. .

         “Despite this strong evidence for a warming planet, greenhouse gas forcing fails to explain the 2010 heat wave over western Russia. The natural process of atmospheric blocking, and the climate impacts induced by such blocking, are the principal cause for this heat wave. It is not known whether, or to what exent, greenhouse gas emissions may affect the frequency or intensity of blocking during summer. ”
         http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/csi/events/2010/russianheatwave/prelim.html
         • RedLogix 4.2.1.1.1

           1 June 2015 at 12:28 pm

           Are you familiar with the idea of fractals dof? The basic idea is that they have a shape which looks similar at any scale. Ice crystals are the classic example.

           It is useful to think of climate and weather as the large scale version of temperature and molecular motion.

           Temperature is nothing more than the average kinetic energy (and hence their average speed) of all the molecules of the medium you are measuring. Each individual molecule is travelling at a different speed in a different direction with a values that is random. (Or to use a more technical term – stochastic.)

           But the speed and direction of ALL molecules has a distribution that is highly predictable. (This is the same idea that says that you cannot predict the outcome of any single toss of the coin, but if you toss that coin a 1000 times you can make a quite accurate prediction of how many will be heads or tails.)

           Back to our molecules The average speed of their distribution is what we call temperature which despite the random speed of all the molecules – is highly predictable.

           But what ‘temperature’ does not direcly tell you is the proportion of molecules that have extremely high speeds. In simple terms, while the average speed (temperature) may increase a small percentage, the number of molecules with very high speeds can increase by a much large factor.

           Using the fractal scaling idea – it’s helpful to think of weather as stochastic events but whose long term spatial and temporal average is what we call climate. The parallel is not an exact one, but helpful.

           And from this we get the idea that a relatively small increase in climate (the average of all weather events) is very likely to be accompanied by a relatively large increase in the frequency of extreme weather events.

           As I said above – the parallel is not exact – and the precise maths is not something I’d pretend to be an expert on. But from some basic statistics and physics we know that the general idea is very likely correct.
           • Poission 4.2.1.1.1.1

             1 June 2015 at 1:29 pm

             but if you toss that coin a 1000 times you can make a quite accurate prediction of how many will be heads or tails.

             Actually it is a well used example on ill conceived probability (counter intuitive) eg Fellers seminal paper

             http://chesswanks.com/txt/Feller.pdf
           • dukeofurl 4.2.1.1.1.2

             1 June 2015 at 1:47 pm

             RedLogix, your logic is laughable.

             WE have found from US hurricane exposure, that the numbers of hurricanes has dropped since the devastating Katrina and New Orleans. Its not expected to be permanent but can only be natural variability as the area has continued to warm.

             You say …idea that a relatively small increase in climate (the average of all weather events) is very likely to be accompanied by a relatively large increase in the frequency of extreme weather events.

             Thats doesnt match up here as Ive shown with US hurricanes, and it seems very extreme russian heatwaves. People who’s expertise is in atmospheres and oceans( NOAA) dont see it in your terms, as a quick search has nothing they have produced regarding fractals.
             My guess is your theories are entirely of your own making. Could it be you have made the breakthrough no one else has thought of ?
             • One Anonymous Bloke …

               1 June 2015 at 1:58 pm

               Snark aside, some Climatology predicts a decrease in frequency of hurricanes, while also predicting an increase in intensity for those that do occur.

               As for the Russian heatwave, it’s an open question.

               …Rahmstorf and Coumou (2011) write that with a probability of 80% “the 2010 July heat record would not have occurred” without the large-scale climate warming since 1980, most of which has been attributed to the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. The latter explicitly state that their results “contradict those of Dole et al. (2011).” Here we use the results from a large ensemble simulation experiment with an atmospheric general circulation model to show that there is no substantive contradiction between these two papers

               Otto et al 2012.
             • RedLogix …

               2 June 2015 at 3:02 pm

               Ah no – I was not proposing any kind of theory. Merely using some basic physics and statistical theory to explain something to you.

               If you want to measure the temperature (as the average speed of all the molecules in it) of a bucket of water, then you can use a thermometer. But if you want to measure climate (as the average of all the weather events on the planet) we don’t have any convenient instrument to tell us this. (Satellite data is a recent source of very helpful information in this respect. )

               But the ideas which work on one physical scale are often a useful tool to use as a starting point on another. Hence my simple analogy with fractals. If you think I’m completely wrong then I’d be happy to hear why. But snark is what you offered instead.
         • Macro 4.2.1.1.2

           1 June 2015 at 2:15 pm

           Do you ever read anything you write?

           “Surely you realise something published in 2004 isnt relevant to an event in 2010. ”
           AOB stated:

           “Hardly a glimpse of the future, considering the Russian and European heatwaves of 2010 and 2003 killed 55k and 71k respectively.”

           The link I referred you to clearly showed that the 2003 event was attributable to AGW and that similar event were likely to occur in the future.

           The NOAA my have doubts about the most recent event quoting blocking as the immediate cause.

           Blocking events (caused by a shift in the jet stream around the Arctic Circle affecting the Arctic Oscillation) have been identified as being associated with increasing Global Temperatures – particularly in Polar regions. The greater increased temperatures are the poles (a noted prediction of Global Warming by the way) results in the troposphere increasing in height over the poles. This greater increase in height over the poles lowers the gradient between the height of the troposphere over the equator with respect to the height over the poles. The decreased gradient leads to a more meandering jet stream and blocking events.
           http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL051000/abstract
     • Richard Christie 4.2.2

       31 May 2015 at 10:25 pm

       The Russian heatwave is considered to be a 500 year event and is not considered to be related to human caused warming. ( it was very high temperatures over about 2 months). Its considered similar the 1936 US heatwave

       But of course higher temperatures and above previous averages will continue because of warming

       You appear to be confused as to the nature and significance of climate change on the re-occurrence of adverse weather events.

       As climate continues to change, what was once in a 500 year event often becomes once in 450 year event, then 300 years etc.
       • Colonial Rawshark 4.2.2.1

         31 May 2015 at 10:54 pm

         Robert Atack posted a presentation a couple of days ago which made it clear that mathematically, what was considered a 1 in 1,000,000 weather event is going to end up being an occasional occurrence in the next decade or two.

         In other words, we are fucked.
         • In Vino 4.2.2.1.1

           31 May 2015 at 11:52 pm

           ♪ Always look on the bright side of life♫
           I hate feeling that we are all crucified, and that only a few are aware of it. It may be true.
           On the other hand, even though a grumpy old fart, I love seeing young people full of zest, spirit, and intelligence.
           I hope that they can build upon the shambles and disaster that we are likely to be leaving them.
           • Colonial Rawshark 4.2.2.1.1.1

             31 May 2015 at 11:58 pm

             🙂
         • Robert Atack 4.2.2.1.2

           1 June 2015 at 10:30 am

           Robert Atack posted a presentation a couple of days ago

           Here it is again
           • Colonial Rawshark 4.2.2.1.2.1

             1 June 2015 at 2:14 pm

             chur
         • weka 4.2.2.1.3

           1 June 2015 at 2:18 pm

           Robert Atack posted a presentation a couple of days ago which made it clear that mathematically, what was considered a 1 in 1,000,000 weather event is going to end up being an occasional occurrence in the next decade or two.

           In other words, we are fucked.

           Robert Atack also thinks that Cowspiracy is valid and reliable source of information. And I seem to remember he believed that because increasing temps meant industrial mono agriculture would fail in many places that we would alll starve. Sorry Robert, but some of your assertions fall over under scrutiny, which is why the ‘we’re doomed’ message is the thing that is fucked.
           • Colonial Rawshark 4.2.2.1.3.1

             2 June 2015 at 2:28 pm

             Was the message of the video he linked to above not valid?
             • weka …

               2 June 2015 at 4:01 pm

               I’m not sure. I watched it the other day when Draco tweeted it. It looked convincing, but I’d like to hear an opinion from someone who knows statistics. I also don’t think the video says we’re fucked. Mostly my comments in response to Robert are an attempt to get some people to see the difference between fact and interpretation. Robert mixes them up and some of his sources are dodgy so I think it’s prudent to take his posts with a grain of salt.
         • dukeofurl 4.2.2.1.4

           2 June 2015 at 2:22 pm

           Are you sure on those numbers?

           1 in 500 years or 1 in a million years ( if there is such a thing) is a probability not a prediction of when it will happen.
           • Colonial Rawshark 4.2.2.1.4.1

             2 June 2015 at 2:29 pm

             true
           • RedLogix 4.2.2.1.4.2

             2 June 2015 at 2:55 pm

             It depends by what you mean by ‘prediction’.

             If you mean predicting when any given single hurricane or weather event will occur – then no.

             But if you want to predict how many events will occur over a period of time – then yes.
       • dukeofurl 4.2.2.2

         1 June 2015 at 12:09 pm

         NOAA scientists dont agree with you there. My understanding is that , in this instance, a natural event produced the extreme heat and it wasnt due to greenhouse gas forcing. But of course average temperatures over Russia are increasing.

         To use your own words, you appear to be confused about what is a very extreme natural event.
         • One Anonymous Bloke 4.2.2.2.1

           1 June 2015 at 2:02 pm

           And you’re ignoring the fact that it’s still an open question. See my comment above.
           • dukeofurl 4.2.2.2.1.1

             1 June 2015 at 4:34 pm

             Who to consider ?

             The people who based their work on the regional data and atmospheric conditions. [Dole , 2011]
             or
             fitting a non-linear trend to central Russian temperatures
             and showing that the warming which has occurred in this region since the 1960s has increased the risk of a heat wave that set a new temperature record for the region by around a factor of 5. [Rahmstorff 2011]
             • One Anonymous Bloke …

               1 June 2015 at 4:37 pm

               Otto et al seem to think there’s more to it than that. You know best though, I’m sure.
         • Colonial Rawshark 4.2.2.2.2

           1 June 2015 at 2:15 pm

           The behaviour of Earth’s entire climate system is shifting. What used to be a one in a thousand year event is going to end up as a one in ten year event.
       • dukeofurl 4.2.2.3

         1 June 2015 at 4:20 pm

         Richard you should check your probability. 1 in 500 is a Pe of 0.002 , or .2% in any one year, not a prediction of only 1 over 500 years.
5. SMILIN 5

   1 June 2015 at 11:16 pm

   The scariest part is that if our immigration keeps up from those exiting to colder climes we who are indigenous and poor may find ourselves on a boat to burn town as the rich buy us out with the help of our current political situation which any one would know is such a pack of bloody lies and when the inevitable destruction of this planet begins in at the very outside 200yrs well the spaceship will be the 50/50 choice for the rich so you might as well believe in Jesus he knew quite a bit about disasters
6. Robert Atack 6

   2 June 2015 at 9:45 am

   https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2015/06/01/arctic-methane-alert-ramp-up-at-numerous-reporting-stations-shows-signature-of-an-amplifying-feedback/

   All this controversy aside, what we OBSERVE NOW is the following:

   1. Arctic methane and CO2 overburden — proxy indication of environmental release.
   2. Increasing rates of release, indications of increasing release, or possibly increasing release from single sources such as thermokarst lakes, peat bogs, wildfires, and sea bed hydrates and submerged tundra.
   3. A multiplication of observed or discovered methane release sources — thermokarst lakes, methane blow holes, wildfires etc.
   4. A ramping rate of atmospheric methane accumulation at reporting stations throughout the Arctic (most but not all stations).
   5. A ramping rate of atmospheric methane accumulation from global proxy monitors like Mauna Loa and in the global atmospheric average.

   Together, these observations represent a troubling trend that, should it continue, will be proceeding along or near a worst-case climate sensitivity track. As such, these new ramping rates of increase in Arctic atmospheric monitors are a very unfortunate indicator.
7. Robert Atack 7

   2 June 2015 at 11:02 am

   Heat Wave Forecast For Russia Early June 2015
   Arctic News,
   1 June, 2015
   Following heat waves in Alaska and the north of Canada, the Arctic looks set to be hit by heat waves along the north coast of Russia in early June, 2015. The image below shows temperature anomalies at the top end of the scale for a large area of Russia forecast for June 6, 2015.

   http://robinwestenra.blogspot.co.nz/2015/06/a-heat-wave-for-russia.html
8. Robert Atack 8

   2 June 2015 at 11:49 am

   http://www.monbiot.com/2015/05/27/a-prehistory-of-violence/

   According to a paper published in 2013, the current rate of ocean acidification, caused by the burning of fossil fuels, is faster than at any time in the past 300 million years. During the Permian mass extinction, the eruption of the Siberian Traps through the Tunguska basin seems to have produced between one and two gigatonnes of carbon dioxide a year. Today fossil fuel burning produces 30 gigatonnes a year.

   But its all good, we got kiwi Saver and ….. hope
   • Colonial Rawshark 8.1

     2 June 2015 at 5:11 pm

     There’s always restarting the Cullen Fund

     And the bar on the Titanic is still serving cocktails to the First Class passengers; too early to be panicking
9. Robert Atack 9

   2 June 2015 at 6:50 pm

   Classic heat stroke during Chicago 1995 heat wave
   http://www.uchospitals.edu/news/1998/19980801-heatstroke-aim.html
   ICU patients from 1995 Chicago heat wave suffered long-term consequences
   August 1, 1998

   A study of patients admitted to intensive care units for heat stroke during the Chicago heat wave of July 1995 indicates that even the extraordinary level of weather-related mortality–more than 600 excess deaths in nine days–radically underestimates the real consequences of that episode.

   In addition to the pre-hospital deaths, nearly half of the patients admitted to Chicago-area ICUs for heat stroke died within a year–21 percent before discharge and another 28 percent after release from the hospital. Many of the survivors suffered permanent loss of independent function; one-third had severe functional impairment at discharge, and none of them had improved after one year.

   snip

   “In this unusual episode, we saw sicker patients with more severe disease than is customary. It taught us that classic heat stroke is a deadly disorder, more complex, more often fatal, and more permanently disabling than the literature on this disorder would predict. And it drove home the crucial importance of prevention and rapid diagnosis and treatment.”

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