web analytics
The Standard

Another poll

Written By: - Date published: 10:36 am, August 9th, 2010 - 16 comments
Categories: Economy, polls - Tags:

For the poll junkies – yes there’s been another poll. It’s headed “Labour make gains”, but it’s margin of error stuff, so don’t get too excited.

The TV One Colmar Brunton poll tonight showed Labour up 2 points to 35 per cent. National remained ahead with 49 per cent.

The Greens were on 7 per cent, Act 2.7, the Maori Party 2.3 and New Zealand First 2.3.

When it came to the preferred Prime Minister John Key was down 1 to 45 per cent and Mr Goff was up 3 to 9 per cent.

For the record, I’m still picking National to lose the next election. Because – it’s the economy stupid. And National haven’t got a clue.

16 comments on “Another poll”

  1. There is no such thing as a bad poll when your support increases.

    Interesting that both TV1 and TV3 arranged polls at the same time, presumably in anticipation that Chris Carter’s difficulties would hurt Labour’s standing. It obviously has not and Phil’s firm stance has helped with his own personal standing.

    Politics is a funny thing …

    • A Post With Me In It 1.1

      I think you are confusing the concept of “increased”.

      If your “increase” is within the margin of error you don’t actually know its an increase at all me old chum. :)

  2. Lanthanide 2

    The rest of the polling data from the article linked to which is worth discussing (don’t know why you didn’t include it)

    TV one preferred prime minister: “When it came to the preferred Prime Minister John Key was down 1 to 45 per cent and Mr Goff was up 3 to 9 per cent.”

    TV 3 polling:

    “However, just 24 per cent thought Mr Goff could lead Labour to a win at the next election, while 64 per cent said he could not.

    Among Labour voters he had a little more luck – 47 per cent believed he could win, 39 per cent that he couldn’t.

    A TV3 Reid Research poll also out tonight put National on 54.5 per cent, Labour on 30.6, Greens on 8.5, Act on 2.2 and Maori Party and NZ First on 1.5 and United Future on 0.2.

    Mr Key was well out in front in the preferred prime minister stakes, with on 48.7 per cent support, while Mr Goff was on 7.4 and NZ First leader Winston Peters on 3.7.”

    • I always thought that asking whether or not a voter thought that a leader may win the next election for his party was a waste of time.

      The only relevant information is actual party support. If a person’s preference is affected by their perception of the leader then this will show in the party support figures.

      The polls are closing. Labout is doing I think a reasonably good job about highlighting the issues that count but keeps getting sidetracked by attacks. If they can stick to the message that this Government is doing nothing to improve the situation for ordinary kiwis and in fact is making it far worse then the next election is up for grabs.

      The Labour-Green National- allies split from the Colmar Brunton poll is 42 to 54. There is still at least 12 months to the next election.

      If you want to see how quickly support can change have a look at our Australian neighbours.

  3. Pat 3

    “I’m still picking National to loose the next election.”

    With Carter on the loose they cannot lose. But if Key gets any looser he might be a loser.

  4. Tigger 4

    TV3’s choice of images last night was utterly bizarre. When showing Key he was patting wide-eyed children affectionately. Goff was wandering down a Beehive hallway. Also, they showed Goff saying ‘bullshit’. And Chris Carter was shown cooking an omlette. Not sure what subliminal message they were trying to send.

  5. Sanctuary 5

    it seems to me Labour’s tribal vote is a rock solid 30% – which I think (based on the double dipper’s disasterous show in 2002) is around 5-7% more than the National tribal vote. Chris Carter’s shenanagins may have simply caused core Labour supporters to close ranks against him.

    Labour/Green is 14% behind National. That is, Labour/Greens need to turn around about 150,000 or so voters. If the economy tanks and Labour can give people a reason to vote for them, that is totally achievable.

    • loota 5.1

      The thing is, the economy by no means flash today and National is still holding around 50%. Australia is still striding ahead of us and even if the MSM is not picking up this message, friends in Australia usually send back live reports loud and clear.

      How bad do things have to get in this country employment and economy-wise before National support erodes to the 40% mark? Not sure I want to be around to witness that, it will be unpleasant.

      • Kevin Welsh 5.1.1

        You want to try working in Napier loota, the Onekawa industrial suburb feels like a dead zone now. Hardly a week goes by without news of another closure and I have it on good authority that several high profile companies in the area have problems.

        12 Months is a very long time in politics and even that idiot Garner said on 3 News last night that he expected the gap to close considerably next year.

  6. brooklyn08 6

    I got the feeling after watching both TVNZ’s and TV3’s coverage of their polls, that they didn’t quite fit the narrative they had hoped for, which I think was either that the Carter saga had hurt or benefitted Goff and Labour. Alas, the movement (in Labour’s favour) was so slight, that neither conclusion could be confidently reached. But what’s with that Reid Research poll? A 14 point gap in the Colmar-Brunton compared to a 24-point gap with Reid research? The Colmar-Brunton seems more aligned with the Roy Morgan of late. Generally, Labour has been inching ahead in support, the Greens are doing well, and National, while still polling high, has been knocked from its lofty heights (gosh I recall 60% in one poll). I’d imagine it’s all downhill for National from now until the election – the rate of descent coupled with the timing of the election will determine who wins in 2011 (and of course Labour’s ability to capitalise on a gravity-afflicted National Party). Then there’s the Winston Peters factor, but Labour could just permanently borrow his superannuation policy meaning lefties need not vote NZ First, at least.

  7. gobsmacked 7

    There is no surprise in these polls. They tell us:

    1) Key is a popular Prime Minister. Especially with people who are not very interested in politics. He is seen as the celeb, the non-political PM (note: in image, not reality).

    Unfortunately for Key and National, the wider public may ignore politics between elections, but they do take an interest at election time. He will need something more than the Rugby World Cup.

    2) The Chris Carter story is of huge interest to the press gallery and paid pontificators, and of very little interest to the general public. Hence … no real change in the polls. Why would there be?

    3) On policy, Labour/Greens have been making steady inroads, over several months now. Almost every policy issue is a negative for National. They back down (e.g. mining) or they lose (e.g. Aussie wage gap).

    People like Key. They don’t like his government’s policies.

    The lesson is clear. The opposition focus must be:

    Policy, policy, policy. Gain percentage point by percentage point. Month by month. Delete all distractions, and if necessary, delete the fools who provide the distractions (Shane Jones, Chris Carter). Talk about the economy, wages, prices, jobs, health, ACC, etc, etc.

    It’s not thrill-a-minute, not for political junkies like us, not for the press gallery who want Big Bangs. But if you want entertainment, watch movies. This is reality.

    (although when you think about a NACT second term …. that’s a horror movie. A sequel. Let’s make sure it never gets made).

    • marsman 7.1

      Right on gobsmacked. And also…Let’s do our best to un-make the the NACT horror movie part 1.

    • Adrian 7.2

      Exactly, beautifully said.. p.s Business confidence down again today. The fall of idols is a slow process, but it is happening. We have to remind people, that actually we did have it bloody good under Labour, and will again.

      • Draco T Bastard 7.2.1

        Not if they maintain the capitalist/dictatorial paradigm. Of course, most of us haven’t had it “good” under that system ever – just less bad.

    • Armchair Critic 7.3

      Nicely said, gs. Hoping for a big bang implosion from National won’t work, Labour need to gradually build their support so they can win an election by May next year (just in case…).
      On the horror movie theme, There is a Friday the 13th next May.

Links to post

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Labour mourns Dame Dorothy Fraser
    Labour Leader Andrew Little said the party is today mourning the loss of the youngest person to join the Labour Party, Dame Dorothy Fraser, who went on to be a stalwart of the Dunedin community and tireless worker for others.… ...
    5 hours ago
  • The ultimate scapegoat: PM blames fruit fly for new tax
    The Prime Minister has found the ultimate scapegoat for breaking his promise not to introduce a new tax – the Queensland fruit fly, Labour’s Biosecurity spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “John Key’s first policy upon taking office and assigning himself the… ...
    8 hours ago
  • How many victims missing out on protection?
    Hundreds of domestic abuse victims could be missing out on getting protection orders because they are unable to get legal aid, Labour’s Justice spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says.“In the last two years some 351 people who applied for legal aid for… ...
    2 days ago
  • Government kicks hardworking whanau
    A major incentive to help young Kiwis and people on low incomes to start saving has been kicked out from under them with the National-led Government ramming through short-sighted legislation under Urgency today, Labour’s Maori Development Spokesperson Nanaia Mahuta says.… ...
    2 days ago
  • Speculator tax political stunt gone wrong
    Bill English’s admission he doesn’t know whether National’s new speculator tax will have any effect shows last weekend’s announcement by the Prime Minister was a desperate political stunt, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “This Government is so desperate to… ...
    2 days ago
  • The value of parenting
    This week, as part of the Budget, the government introduced a bill to address child poverty. This bill will require parents receiving income support to look for part-time work once their youngest child is three years of age rather than… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    2 days ago
  • Another new tax, another broken promise
    National has unveiled yet another new tax in this budget – a rural broadband levy that will almost certainly result in an immediate price hike for internet and telephone connections across New Zealand, Labour’s ICT spokesperson Clare Curran said “The… ...
    3 days ago
  • Anniversary of Sri Lankan Tamil Massacre
    This is not going to be a happy story but if the Green Party of Aotearoa doesn’t want to know who else will? May 18th marks the anniversary of what is known as the ‘Mullivaikal massacre’ of Tamils in 2009 at… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    3 days ago
  • Labour MPs join youth to take part in 40 hour famine
    A team of Labour MPs took part in the 2015 World Vision 40 hour famine and we were told by World Vision and the young people, that it was the first time MPs had joined them and how appreciative they… ...
    3 days ago
  • Rodeo: ‘Family entertainment’ or animal abuse?
    Recently  TVNZ ran a story with confronting footage showing rodeo animals being punched, repeatedly shocked with electronic prods and having their tails violently twisted over their backs. It was clear that significant force was being used behind the scenes to make… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers MP
    3 days ago
  • Budget puts the squeeze on police
    The Government has cut funding to the New Zealand police force in the latest Budget, says Labour’s Police spokesperson Kelvin Davis. “The reduction is a whopping $15.3 million that could put front line officers at risk. ...
    3 days ago
  • Crucial social services take another hit
    The Government looks set to slash half a million dollars of funding for critical social services, including Women’s Refuge and Barnados, says Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni “Taking $500,000 from organisations aimed at improving the lives of vulnerable families… ...
    3 days ago
  • Saying it Loud on Climate in Christchurch
    The Government’s Christchurch consultation meeting on New Zealand’s emission targets was inspiring – not for what was in the Ministry for the Environment’s (MFE’s) defeatist video about the obstacles to changing to a low carbon future, but for what the… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage MP
    3 days ago
  • Budget silent on small business
    The Government has completely ignored one of the most important sectors of the economy – small and medium-sized enterprises – in Budget 2015, Labour’s Small Business spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says. "A stunning 41 per cent of jobs were created by… ...
    3 days ago
  • Thank you John, it’s been bloody marvellous
    The departure of John Campbell is a blow to current affairs investigative journalism, Labour’s Broadcasting Spokesperson Clare Curran says. “Campbell Live stood out in its field. Its axing comes as local broadcasting in New Zealand remains in a state of… ...
    3 days ago
  • KiwiSaver cut shows no long-term plan
    National’s cutting of the KiwiSaver kickstart is incredibly short-term thinking, typical of a Budget that is woefully short on ideas to generate wealth and opportunity, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says. “New Zealand’s savings rate is far too low. KiwiSaver… ...
    3 days ago
  • National hits the panic button for its 7th Budget
    National has hit the panic button for its 7th Budget in a desperate attempt to look like they’re taking action to reduce our shameful child poverty rates, but they are giving with one hand and taking with the other, Opposition… ...
    4 days ago
  • Panic and back-flips can’t hide twin deficits
    National’s token measures to fight fires they have left burning for seven long years can’t hide a Budget that is long on broken promises, short on vision and fails to reach surplus, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “After being… ...
    4 days ago
  • Auckland land measure seven years too late
    National are so desperate to look like they are doing something about the Auckland housing crisis they have dusted off Labour’s 2008 inventory of government land available for housing and re-announced it, says Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Despite National… ...
    4 days ago
  • Access to gender reassignment surgery essential
    I was frankly disgusted to hear the Minister for Health say that funding gender reassignment surgeries is a “nutty idea”. A recent study found that in New Zealand 1% of young people identified themselves as transgender, and 3% were unsure… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    5 days ago
  • Global milk prices now lowest in 6 years
    The latest fall in the global dairy price has brought it to the lowest level in six years and shows there must be meaningful action in tomorrow’s Budget to diversify the economy, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Dairy prices… ...
    6 days ago
  • Big risks as CYF checks stopped
    Revelations that Child, Youth and Family is no longer assisting home-based early childhood educators by vetting potential employees should set alarm bells ringing, Labour Children’s spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says. “Doing away with an extra mechanism for checking potential new employees… ...
    6 days ago
  • Housing crisis about real people not numbers
    The Government’s continued failure to tackle the housing crisis is seeing thousands of vulnerable Kiwis being kept off social housing waiting lists, while others, who are on the list, are being forced to live in cars and garages, says Labour’s… ...
    6 days ago
  • Housing crisis about real people not numbers
    The Government’s continued failure to tackle the housing crisis is seeing thousands of vulnerable Kiwis being kept off social housing waiting lists, while others, who are on the list, are being forced to live in cars and garages, says Labour’s… ...
    6 days ago
  • State of origin
    Kiwis are increasingly concerned about the food they give their families. New Zealand consumers have the right to know where their food has come from, particularly when it involves animals, and should be able to expect our Government to label… ...
    GreensBy Steffan Browning MP
    6 days ago
  • Relationships Aotearoa
    It is disturbing that Relationships Aotearoa, a voluntary organisation set up in 1949 to help couples struggling with their relationships following the upheavals of World War II, may be forced to close, says Acting Spokesperson for the Voluntary and Community… ...
    6 days ago
  • An economy that is just working for some is an economy that is not working
    The National Party presents itself as a great manager of the economy, but if the economy is only working for some we really need to question that assertion. Alongside the perpetually elusive surplus, the levels of risk in our economy are… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    6 days ago
  • An economy that is just working for some is an economy that is not working
    The National Party presents itself as a great manager of the economy, but if the economy is only working for some we really need to question that assertion. Alongside the perpetually elusive surplus, the levels of risk in our economy are… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    6 days ago
  • House prices to a crack $1 million in 17 months
    The average Auckland home is on track to cost $1 million in 17 months’ time if nothing substantial is done to rein in soaring price rises, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “Auckland’s house prices have skyrocketed 63 per cent… ...
    7 days ago
  • Vital support services can’t be left in lurch
    The National Government has big questions to answer about how a provider of services to thousands of vulnerable New Zealanders is set to fold, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says. Relationships Aotearoa which provides support and counselling to families, individuals… ...
    1 week ago
  • Treasury and IRD on a capital gains tax
    Both the Treasury and IRD have been advising the National Government on the benefits of a capital gains tax. Documents released to the Green Party under an Official Information Act request show that John Key has been selective with the… ...
    GreensBy Russel Norman MP
    1 week ago
  • Charity legislation needs review
    It is unacceptable that the big corporate based charities claim  millions in annual income tax exemptions, while small community based and operated non-profit organisations  struggle to gain official charity status, Labour’s acting spokesperson for the Voluntary and Community Sector Louisa… ...
    1 week ago
  • John’s panic-Key response to housing crisis
    John Key needs to tell New Zealanders what caused his sudden change of heart that led to the Government’s scrambled and last-minute housing measures, Opposition Leader Andrew Little says. “The Prime Minister’s sudden rush of blood to his head followed… ...
    1 week ago
  • Keep our Assets Christchurch Campaign: An update
    I recently presented my submission to keep Christchurch Council assets at the Christchurch City Council’s public hearings on its 10 year plan on 13 May. The hearings are live-streamed and recorded so you can watch them on www.ccc.govt.nz. The Council’s… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage MP
    1 week ago
  • John Key finally admits there’s a housing crisis
    John Key’s weak measures to rein in the astronomical profits property speculators are making are an admission – finally – that there is a housing crisis, Labour Leader Andrew Little says. “But yet again National is tinkering with the housing… ...
    1 week ago
  • Government stifles voices in CYFs review
    The Government’s exclusion of the Māori Women’s Welfare League in a panel on the future of CYFs is a cynical ploy to stifle views, says Labour’s Māori Development Spokesperson Nanaia Mahuta. “It's unbelievable that a significant review on the future… ...
    1 week ago
  • Speech to the Otago Chamber of Commerce
    Thank you very much for the opportunity to be here today. It’s a pleasure as always to be back in the town that raised me. Growing up in St Kilda meant that there was one thing that was a big… ...
    1 week ago
  • Key can’t just be Prime Minister for Parnell
    John Key must show New Zealanders in next week’s Budget that he is more than the Prime Minister for Parnell, and is also the Prime Minister for Pine Hill, Putararu and Palmerston North, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says. In… ...
    1 week ago
  • Stop the conversions
    This week, some Waikato locals took me and intrepid photographer Amanda Rogers on a tour of some  lakes and waterways in their region, and up to the massive dairy conversions in the upper catchment of the Waikato River. It… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    1 week ago
  • More regional jobs go in Corrections reshape
    News that 194 Corrections staff are to lose their jobs will have ramifications not only for them and their families but for the wider community, Labour’s Corrections spokesperson Kelvin Davis says. Prison units at Waikeria, Tongariro and Rimutaka face closure… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government’s climate meetings off to a bumpy start
    On Wednesday, I attended a hui and an evening meeting that the Government had organised in Nelson as part of its climate change consultation tour, to support the Nelson community telling the Government to take meaningful action on climate change.… ...
    GreensBy Steffan Browning MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Taxpayers the only ones left feeling blue
    Ministry of Social Development bosses could have saved themselves thousands of dollars in consultants’ fees by providing staff with rose-tinted spectacles, Labour’s State Services spokesperson Kris Faafoi says. A report out today reveals the Ministry is spending over half a… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Why are the regions still facing restrictions?
    Labour's Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford is questioning why the regions should continue to be saddled with LVR lending restrictions announced by the Reserve Bank today. “Labour has been calling for the regions to be exempted from LVRs for the best… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • The high costs of weak environmental regulation
    Te Waihora/Lake Ellesmere is described on the Department of Conservation website as “Canterbury’s largest and New Zealand’s fifth largest [lake], and an internationally important wildlife area.” But the lake is also polluted by nutrients leaching from farms in the catchment.… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Submissions to Wellington City Council on their Gambling Venues Policy
    Every three years Councils across the country are required to check that their gambling venue policies are still fit for purpose and they can choose to consult on their policy if they are thinking of making changes. Councils don’t have… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Reserve Bank action shows Govt out of touch and out of ideas
    The Reserve Bank’s unprecedented measures today show it understands the serious risks of the overheating housing market – in complete contrast to John Key’s refusal to acknowledge the crisis, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says. “The Bank is right to… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Send us your snaps: 25 Years of the Green Party
    This year we've hit a milestone. We're turning 25.To help celebrate a quarter of a century, please send us your photos from the last 25 years of the Green Party Aotearoa New Zealand! Note: Photos must be jpg, gif or… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • 25 Years of the Green Party
    This year the Green Party sends 25. To help us celebrate a quarter of a century please send us you photos of 25 years of the Green Party!Photos must be jpg,gif or png and smaller than 2MB. If you are… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Bay growth plan too little too late
    Today’s Bay of Plenty growth study from MBIE is another example of Government spin - lots of talk but little action, says Labour’s Regional Development spokesperson David Cunliffe.  “This is a region that desperately needs to develop the downstream processing… ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government bows to ACC pressure
     The Government has finally buckled to pressure from Labour and the New Zealand public in making a half billion dollar cut to ACC levies, but the full benefits are two years away,” says Opposition Leader Andrew Little.  “$500 million over… ...
    2 weeks ago

Public service advertisements by The Standard

Current CO2 level in the atmosphere