web analytics

Another poll

Written By: - Date published: 10:36 am, August 9th, 2010 - 16 comments
Categories: Economy, polls - Tags:

For the poll junkies – yes there’s been another poll. It’s headed “Labour make gains”, but it’s margin of error stuff, so don’t get too excited.

The TV One Colmar Brunton poll tonight showed Labour up 2 points to 35 per cent. National remained ahead with 49 per cent.

The Greens were on 7 per cent, Act 2.7, the Maori Party 2.3 and New Zealand First 2.3.

When it came to the preferred Prime Minister John Key was down 1 to 45 per cent and Mr Goff was up 3 to 9 per cent.

For the record, I’m still picking National to lose the next election. Because – it’s the economy stupid. And National haven’t got a clue.

16 comments on “Another poll”

  1. There is no such thing as a bad poll when your support increases.

    Interesting that both TV1 and TV3 arranged polls at the same time, presumably in anticipation that Chris Carter’s difficulties would hurt Labour’s standing. It obviously has not and Phil’s firm stance has helped with his own personal standing.

    Politics is a funny thing …

    • A Post With Me In It 1.1

      I think you are confusing the concept of “increased”.

      If your “increase” is within the margin of error you don’t actually know its an increase at all me old chum. 🙂

  2. Lanthanide 2

    The rest of the polling data from the article linked to which is worth discussing (don’t know why you didn’t include it)

    TV one preferred prime minister: “When it came to the preferred Prime Minister John Key was down 1 to 45 per cent and Mr Goff was up 3 to 9 per cent.”

    TV 3 polling:

    “However, just 24 per cent thought Mr Goff could lead Labour to a win at the next election, while 64 per cent said he could not.

    Among Labour voters he had a little more luck – 47 per cent believed he could win, 39 per cent that he couldn’t.

    A TV3 Reid Research poll also out tonight put National on 54.5 per cent, Labour on 30.6, Greens on 8.5, Act on 2.2 and Maori Party and NZ First on 1.5 and United Future on 0.2.

    Mr Key was well out in front in the preferred prime minister stakes, with on 48.7 per cent support, while Mr Goff was on 7.4 and NZ First leader Winston Peters on 3.7.”

    • I always thought that asking whether or not a voter thought that a leader may win the next election for his party was a waste of time.

      The only relevant information is actual party support. If a person’s preference is affected by their perception of the leader then this will show in the party support figures.

      The polls are closing. Labout is doing I think a reasonably good job about highlighting the issues that count but keeps getting sidetracked by attacks. If they can stick to the message that this Government is doing nothing to improve the situation for ordinary kiwis and in fact is making it far worse then the next election is up for grabs.

      The Labour-Green National- allies split from the Colmar Brunton poll is 42 to 54. There is still at least 12 months to the next election.

      If you want to see how quickly support can change have a look at our Australian neighbours.

  3. Pat 3

    “I’m still picking National to loose the next election.”

    With Carter on the loose they cannot lose. But if Key gets any looser he might be a loser.

  4. Tigger 4

    TV3’s choice of images last night was utterly bizarre. When showing Key he was patting wide-eyed children affectionately. Goff was wandering down a Beehive hallway. Also, they showed Goff saying ‘bullshit’. And Chris Carter was shown cooking an omlette. Not sure what subliminal message they were trying to send.

  5. Sanctuary 5

    it seems to me Labour’s tribal vote is a rock solid 30% – which I think (based on the double dipper’s disasterous show in 2002) is around 5-7% more than the National tribal vote. Chris Carter’s shenanagins may have simply caused core Labour supporters to close ranks against him.

    Labour/Green is 14% behind National. That is, Labour/Greens need to turn around about 150,000 or so voters. If the economy tanks and Labour can give people a reason to vote for them, that is totally achievable.

    • loota 5.1

      The thing is, the economy by no means flash today and National is still holding around 50%. Australia is still striding ahead of us and even if the MSM is not picking up this message, friends in Australia usually send back live reports loud and clear.

      How bad do things have to get in this country employment and economy-wise before National support erodes to the 40% mark? Not sure I want to be around to witness that, it will be unpleasant.

      • Kevin Welsh 5.1.1

        You want to try working in Napier loota, the Onekawa industrial suburb feels like a dead zone now. Hardly a week goes by without news of another closure and I have it on good authority that several high profile companies in the area have problems.

        12 Months is a very long time in politics and even that idiot Garner said on 3 News last night that he expected the gap to close considerably next year.

  6. brooklyn08 6

    I got the feeling after watching both TVNZ’s and TV3’s coverage of their polls, that they didn’t quite fit the narrative they had hoped for, which I think was either that the Carter saga had hurt or benefitted Goff and Labour. Alas, the movement (in Labour’s favour) was so slight, that neither conclusion could be confidently reached. But what’s with that Reid Research poll? A 14 point gap in the Colmar-Brunton compared to a 24-point gap with Reid research? The Colmar-Brunton seems more aligned with the Roy Morgan of late. Generally, Labour has been inching ahead in support, the Greens are doing well, and National, while still polling high, has been knocked from its lofty heights (gosh I recall 60% in one poll). I’d imagine it’s all downhill for National from now until the election – the rate of descent coupled with the timing of the election will determine who wins in 2011 (and of course Labour’s ability to capitalise on a gravity-afflicted National Party). Then there’s the Winston Peters factor, but Labour could just permanently borrow his superannuation policy meaning lefties need not vote NZ First, at least.

  7. gobsmacked 7

    There is no surprise in these polls. They tell us:

    1) Key is a popular Prime Minister. Especially with people who are not very interested in politics. He is seen as the celeb, the non-political PM (note: in image, not reality).

    Unfortunately for Key and National, the wider public may ignore politics between elections, but they do take an interest at election time. He will need something more than the Rugby World Cup.

    2) The Chris Carter story is of huge interest to the press gallery and paid pontificators, and of very little interest to the general public. Hence … no real change in the polls. Why would there be?

    3) On policy, Labour/Greens have been making steady inroads, over several months now. Almost every policy issue is a negative for National. They back down (e.g. mining) or they lose (e.g. Aussie wage gap).

    People like Key. They don’t like his government’s policies.

    The lesson is clear. The opposition focus must be:

    Policy, policy, policy. Gain percentage point by percentage point. Month by month. Delete all distractions, and if necessary, delete the fools who provide the distractions (Shane Jones, Chris Carter). Talk about the economy, wages, prices, jobs, health, ACC, etc, etc.

    It’s not thrill-a-minute, not for political junkies like us, not for the press gallery who want Big Bangs. But if you want entertainment, watch movies. This is reality.

    (although when you think about a NACT second term …. that’s a horror movie. A sequel. Let’s make sure it never gets made).

    • marsman 7.1

      Right on gobsmacked. And also…Let’s do our best to un-make the the NACT horror movie part 1.

    • Adrian 7.2

      Exactly, beautifully said.. p.s Business confidence down again today. The fall of idols is a slow process, but it is happening. We have to remind people, that actually we did have it bloody good under Labour, and will again.

      • Draco T Bastard 7.2.1

        Not if they maintain the capitalist/dictatorial paradigm. Of course, most of us haven’t had it “good” under that system ever – just less bad.

    • Armchair Critic 7.3

      Nicely said, gs. Hoping for a big bang implosion from National won’t work, Labour need to gradually build their support so they can win an election by May next year (just in case…).
      On the horror movie theme, There is a Friday the 13th next May.

Links to post

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Who are they going to call?
    A cry for help from New Zealand’s longest-running crisis line highlights chronic underfunding of the sector by the Government, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says. “Lifeline is THE go-to helpline for people in crisis, taking up to 180,000 calls each ...
    4 hours ago
  • Five months too long for homeless to wait
    New figures revealing homeless people registered with Work and Income are waiting an average of 155 days to be housed shows the Government is totally overwhelmed by the housing crisis, Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni says. “What’s worse is ...
    19 hours ago
  • Minister in cloud cuckoo land
    Hekia Parata needs a very big reality check if she truly believes every parent has the choice of sending their child to a private school, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. Questioned in the House today about plans to pump ...
    21 hours ago
  • Convention centre failure means years of uncertainty for CBD
    The failure of Gerry Brownlee’s planned convention centre deal leaves Christchurch facing uncertainty about when activity will be restored to the CBD, says Labour’s Canterbury spokesperson Megan Woods. “As one of the CBD’s major anchor projects, the convention centre complex ...
    21 hours ago
  • PCE proves water quality still deteriorating
    The PCE State of the Environment Report shows that river water quality is continuing to get worse across large parts of New Zealand, says Labour’s Environment and Water spokesperson David Parker. “Water quality has deteriorated in Canterbury, Central Otago, Auckland, ...
    24 hours ago
  • Families with new babies victims of today’s veto
    Families with new babies are the victims of an historical “first” for the New Zealand Parliament today. “For the first time ever, a Bill will have a third reading debate and no vote will be taken at the end because ...
    1 day ago
  • Crime on the rise…again!
    The Police Minister’s contention that Police have enough resources to meet the expectations of New Zealand communities is not reflected in the Police’s own statistics, says Labour’s Police spokesperson Stuart Nash.  “Yet again, reported burglaries have increased in every region ...
    1 day ago
  • Private schools beneficiaries of extra cash
    Plans to give more taxpayer money to private schools at a time when state schools are struggling to make ends meet says everything about the National Government’s twisted priorities, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “Not only did this year’s ...
    2 days ago
  • Inequality getting worse under National
    Inequality is getting worse under National with almost 60 per cent of the wealth in this country concentrated in the hands of the top 10 per cent according to Statistics NZ figures released today, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. ...
    2 days ago
  • Government freezes elderly out of insulation subsidy
    Government cuts to the Warm Up New Zealand insulation subsidy means it will now only be available for rental properties and could leave many elderly homeowners cold this winter, Opposition Leader Andrew Little says. “In this year’s Budget the Government ...
    3 days ago
  • Shewan report delivers rebuke to National
    John Shewan’s report into foreign trusts is a rebuke to John Key and the National Party who have protected an industry that has damaged New Zealand’s reputation, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Three years ago the Inland Revenue Department ...
    3 days ago
  • Auckland Airport rail analysis must be made public
    The Government should publicly release its detailed analysis of rail to Auckland Airport before it closes off options, so the public can have an informed debate, says Labour’s Auckland Issues spokesperson Phil Twyford. The Transport Agency today said it is ...
    3 days ago
  • Minister approved OIO consent despite death and investigations
    Louise Upston must say if she knew Intueri was being prosecuted for the death of a student and under a funding investigation when she approved its overseas investment consent to buy another education provider, says Labour’s Land Information and Associate ...
    4 days ago
  • Brexit vote costs NZ effective EU voice
    Despite being extremely close the result of the referendum in Britain reflects the majority voice, Labour’s Foreign Affairs spokesperson David Shearer says. “While we respect the decision to leave the EU, it goes without saying the move will usher in ...
    6 days ago
  • Pasifika Education Centre doomed
    The Pasifika Education Centre appears doomed to close down this December, says Labour’s Pacific Island Affairs spokesperson Su’a William Sio  “In a written question I asked the Minister whether he would put a bid in for more money. His answer ...
    6 days ago
  • Onetai Station review a shameful whitewash
    A report released today on the Overseas Investment Office’s (OIO) good character test is a whitewash that does nothing to improve New Zealand’s overseas investment regime, says Labour’s Land Information spokesperson David Cunliffe. “The review of the good character test ...
    6 days ago
  • We need a national strategy to end homelessness now
    Long before I entered Parliament, housing and homelessness were issues dear to my heart. I know from personal experience just how hard it is to find an affordable home in Auckland. In my maiden speech, I talked about how when ...
    GreensBy Marama Davidson
    6 days ago
  • Capital feels a chill economic wind
      Wellington is on the cusp of recession with a sharp fall in economic confidence in the latest Westpac McDermott Miller confidence survey, says Labour’s Regional Development spokesperson David Clark.  “Economic confidence amongst Wellingtonians has dropped 12% in the past ...
    6 days ago
  • Dive school rort took six years to dredge up
    News that yet another private training establishment (PTE) has rorted the Government’s tertiary funding system since 2009 shows that Steven Joyce has no control of the sector, says Labour’s Associate Education (Tertiary) spokesperson David Cunliffe. “Like Agribusiness Training and Taratahi, ...
    7 days ago
  • National’s housing crisis hitting renters hard
    National’s ongoing housing crisis is causing massive rental increases, with Auckland renters being hit the hardest, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. ...
    7 days ago
  • A Day with the PSA
    This week, along with Labour MP Kris Faafoi, I accepted an invitation to spend a day working alongside the good folk at the Public Service Association in Wellington. As the Workplace Relations and Safety spokesperson for the Greens, I was ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    7 days ago
  • A Day with the PSA
    This week, along with Labour MP Kris Faafoi, I accepted an invitation to spend a day working alongside the good folk at the Public Service Association in Wellington. As the Workplace Relations and Safety spokesperson for the Greens, I was ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    7 days ago
  • Government holds Northland back
    New information shows Northland remains the most economically depressed region in New Zealand, says Labour’s Regional Development spokesperson David Clark. “The latest Westpac McDermott Miller regional survey found that more Northlanders believe their local economy will deteriorate this year than ...
    1 week ago
  • Rebstock report into MFAT leaks a disgrace
    An Ombudsman’s report on the Paul Rebstock investigation into MFAT leaks shows the two diplomats at the centre of the case were treated disgracefully, says Labour’s State Services spokesperson Kris Faafoi.  “The Ombudsman says one of the diplomats Derek Leask ...
    1 week ago
  • More families forced to turn to food banks for meals
    Increasing numbers of families are having to go to food banks just to put a meal on the table, according to a new report that should shame the Government into action, says Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni. ...
    1 week ago
  • We have a housing emergency in New Zealand
    Auckland, New Zealand, where house prices have risen 20 percent in the last year alone We have a housing emergency in New Zealand.  Like many people we are ashamed and angry that in a wealthy country like ours, we have ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage
    1 week ago
  • We have a housing emergency in New Zealand
    Auckland, New Zealand, where house prices have risen 20 percent in the last year alone We have a housing emergency in New Zealand.  Like many people we are ashamed and angry that in a wealthy country like ours, we have ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage
    1 week ago
  • Aussie reforms signal trouble ahead for school funding plan
    Plans by the Government to return to bulk funding are likely to see increased class sizes and schools most in need missing out on much-needed resources, Labour’s Acting Education spokesperson Grant Robertson says. “The signaled return to bulk funding is ...
    1 week ago
  • Toxic Sites – the down low on the go slow
    In  2011, I negotiated an agreement with the National Government to advance work on cleaning up contaminated sites across the country. This included establishing a National Register of the ten worst sites where the creators of the problem could not ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    1 week ago
  • Aucklanders face new motorway tax of up to $2500 a year
    The Government wants to tax Aucklanders thousands of dollars a year just to use the motorway network, says Labour’s Auckland Issues spokesperson Phil Twyford. “Officials estimate the average city commute is 11.8km. This means for the average Aucklander commuting five ...
    1 week ago
  • 15 corrupt bank managers identified in student fraud
    New information show 15 bank managers in India have been identified by Immigration New Zealand as presenting fraudulent documents on behalf of foreign students studying here, Labour’s Immigration spokesperson Iain Lees-Galloway says. “Documents obtained by Labour under the Official Information ...
    1 week ago
  • National leaves Kiwi savers the most vulnerable in OECD
    News last week that Israel’s Finance Minister will insure savers’ bank deposits means New Zealand will be left as the only country in the OECD that has no deposit insurance to protect savers’ funds should a bank fail. Most Kiwis ...
    GreensBy James Shaw
    1 week ago
  • Comprehensive plan for future of work needed
    A Massey University study showing many New Zealanders are unaware of the increasing role of automation in their workplace, highlights the need for a comprehensive plan for the future of work, says Grant Robertson, Chair of Labour’s Future of Work ...
    1 week ago
  • Another National Government failure: 90 day work trials
    On Friday last week, the Treasury released a report by MOTU economic consultants into the effectiveness of the controversial 90-day work trial legislation. The report found that there was “no evidence that the policy affected the number of hires by ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    1 week ago
  • Iraq mission extension case not made
    The Prime Minister has not made the case for extending the Iraq deployment another 18 months nor the expansion of their mission, says Opposition Leader Andrew Little.  “Labour originally opposed the deployment because the Iraqi Army’s track record was poor, ...
    1 week ago
  • Denial is a long river
    William Rolleston from Federated Farmers made the absurd claim on RNZ on Saturday that “we actually have very clean rivers”. This statement doesn’t represent the many farmers who know water quality is in big trouble and are working to clean ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    1 week ago
  • Denial is a long river
    William Rolleston from Federated Farmers made the absurd claim on RNZ on Saturday that “we actually have very clean rivers”. This statement doesn’t represent the many farmers who know water quality is in big trouble and are working to clean ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    1 week ago
  • Melanoma deaths could be avoided by an early access scheme
      The tragic death of Dunedin’s Graeme Dore from advanced Melanoma underlines the cruelty of this Government in promising a treatment but delaying for months, says Labour’s Health Spokesperson Annette King.  “Graeme was diagnosed with Melanoma last year. He used ...
    1 week ago
  • Assessing the Defence White Paper
    The Government’s recently released Defence White Paper has raised questions again about New Zealand’s defence priorities, and in particular the level and nature of public funding on defensive capabilities. The Green Party has a longstanding belief that priority must be ...
    GreensBy Kennedy Graham
    1 week ago
  • Kiwis’ confidence drops again: Economy needs a boost
    Westpac’s consumer confidence survey has fallen for the seventh time in nine quarters, with middle income households ‘increasingly worried about where the economy is heading over the next few years’, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “This survey is a ...
    1 week ago
  • Relocation grant simply kicks can down the road
    The response by state house tenants and social agencies to the Government’s rushed plan to shift families out of Auckland tells us what we already knew – this is no answer to the chronic housing shortage, Opposition Leader Andrew Little ...
    1 week ago
  • Peace hīkoi to Parihaka
    On Friday a Green crew walked with the peace hīkoi from Ōkato to Parihaka. Some of us were from Parliament and some were party members from Taranaki and further afield. It was a cloudy but gentle day and at one ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    1 week ago
  • Children’s Commissioner right to worry about CYF transition
    The Government must listen to the Children’s Commissioner’s concerns that young people under CYF care could be ‘negatively impacted’ as the new agency’s reforms become reality, says Labour’s Children’s spokesperson Jacinda Ardern. “Dr Russell Wills has used the second annual ...
    1 week ago
  • Bill English exaggerates PPL costs to justify veto
    The Finance Minister has used trumped-up costings to justify a financial veto against parents having 26 weeks paid parental leave, says Labour MP Sue Moroney. “Bill English’s assertion on RNZ yesterday that the measure would cost an extra $280 million ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Government must refund overcharged motorists
    Labour is calling on the Government to refund motor registration fees to three-quarters of a million Kiwi motorists whose vehicles were wrongly classified under National’s shambolic ACC motor vehicle risk rating system, Labour’s ACC spokesperson Sue Moroney says.“Minister Kaye’s ridiculous ...
    2 weeks ago
  • 90-day work trials an unfair failure which must change
    A new Treasury report shows the Government’s 90-day trials haven’t helped businesses and are inherently unfair, Labour’s Workplace Relations spokesperson Iain Lees-Galloway says. “The Motu report found that 90-day trial periods had no impact on overall employment and did not ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Massey East houses a start but Nick Smith should think bigger
    The Massey East 196-home development is a start but the Government must think bigger if it is to end the housing crisis, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “It is great the Government is finally realising it needs to build ...
    2 weeks ago
  • More changes needed to ensure fewer cases like Teina Pora’s
    Teina Pora spent 21 years behind bars for a crime he didn’t commit, shafted by a Police investigation that prioritised an investigator’s hunch over the pursuit of credible evidence. Yesterday’s announcement that the government is to pay him $2.5m in ...
    GreensBy David Clendon
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand Labour sends condolences to UK
    The New Zealand Labour Party is sickened and saddened by the murder of British Labour MP Jo Cox, Labour Leader Andrew Little says. “Ms Cox was killed in cold blood while simply doing her job as a constituent MP. She ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Shameful refugee quota increase still leaves NZ at the bottom of the list
    Minister for Immigration Michael Woodhouse announced this week that the government will put off increasing the refugee quota by 1000 places until 2018.  It’s a shameful decision that undermines the Government’s claim that it takes its international humanitarian obligations seriously, ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche
    2 weeks ago

Public service advertisements by The Standard

Current CO2 level in the atmosphere