I see that Kennedy's remark after the shambles that was The Bay of Pigs is equally true in New Zealand.
"Victory has a hundred fathers and defeat is an orphan"
It would seem that Dr Caroline McElnay was stuck with announcing that there were 71 cases of Covid 19 today. Where was the PM? Where was Hipkins? Where was Bloomfield?
This tiresome thought in post 1 has surfaced on another board I frequent. Apart from being rubbish it is so obvious that they are not original spontaneous thoughts occurring across the nation.. Almost as if the Nats or whoevers have sent out talking points.
Who cares who fronts? As long as they are competent and Hipkins and Robertson mostly certainly are competent. Bloomfield and McElnay similarly.
I noticed that JC was very scathing that the PM did not front over this past weekend, as if she was having a zzzzz somewhere or just decided not to to walk down from Premier House. JC seemed to forget that the PM was in places like Murupara and the East Coast being part of a drive to up the vaccination rates in those areas.
I know the work I feel is most important and it is not fronting a a weekend Beehive session that could be competently fronted by others
It intrigues me that there seems to be a deliberate policy of not explaining why govt policy has failed to contain the Delta spread whereas it succeeded with the original contagion last year. I'm aware Delta is way more infectious, but we have a tendency in the public to try and blame boundary runners for the spread. I haven't noticed any effort by the authorities to either confirm or deny whether they're guilty.
Could be govt is clueless & prefers not to let on. Human nature. But the idea of transparent governance is that you inform the public when it's in the public interest. I reckon people like to connect cause & effect, so if they don't get official explanations they just make it up as they go along. Semi-plausible narratives will get traction. Dunno if it's wise of officialdom to turn a blind eye to those.
1.case numbers spread out a lot in the initial period, so it took a month to shut the clusters down.
2. to then eliminate would have required weeks more at Level 4 (tough but doable – the government now likes to say, there was no guarantee it would have worked as reason to give up on elimination this year).
2a – they were complacent under elimination and did not have rapid testing at essential workplaces (such as a 15 minute test before entry into a hospital).
3. the plan to open up – including a trial of business workers in home isolation (some risk) before opening up next year with vaccination rolled out.
The dichotomy between 2 and 3 was too much.
So they moved to Level 3 and committed to never going back to Level 4. Instead they had a plan to go down towards level 2 via Level 3 lite.
Now we have community spread that will go over 100 a day by the end of the month. It'll go higher in November and modellers will call for a Level 4 period to take numbers back down again – at some point this is likely (if only for a week or two).
We'll cope provided
1. we contain it in Auckland – then we can transfer health workers into Auckland as need be.
2. we get boosters to those vaxxed earlier in the year to prevent breakthrough infections in health workers and the medically vulnerable (oldies before Christmas).
we contain it in Auckland – then we can transfer health workers into Auckland as need be.
Even giving you the first part of that proviso; SPC (which seems optimistic), where do you propose that we get the health workers to transfer into Auckland? NZNO members in particular are unlikely to do so simply because the current Minister of Health asks them to! Which leaves Immigration or Conscription – both problematic to my mind.
6 more weeks containment in Auckland till we get to the second dose plus 2 weeks for full immunity is what is wanted/needed
Staff have already gone to one Auckland hospital to help out, and given our increased ICU capacity consists of local nurses recently trained up (and with no experience in this work) or more experienced staff who have managed few pandemic cases they might well volunteer for such secondment – either as completion of their training or preparation for their 2022 jobs locally.
My understanding is that this is basically due to investigations taking more time than the speed of the news cycle. We have in some cases been made aware of how inter regional transmission might have started such as the guy from Auckland district courts going to outside Auckland (and apparently catching it off his transport). I also doubt the media would do much with comprehensive case notes anyway because these would necessarily be days to weeks out of date and the focus is going to be on whats just happened today.
As usual Alwyn I am astounded by your encyclopedic knowledge of memes, sayings and especially the prior promises and eventual failures of our (more left leaning) elected representatives.
Can you let us in on your secret. Do you keep a database of things Jacinda said, or that Grant put his hand in the pocket for? Do you have a revision schedule for keeping up to date with the latest let down?
My only comment here about Ms Ardern was that she didn't appear to be at today's briefing. That is the only thing I said. How does that become something to cause you to decide that you should come out with " I am astounded by your encyclopedic knowledge of memes," etc?
that's not all you said. You also said via implication that Ardern, Hipkins and Bloomfield should have fronted announcing 71 cases instead of leaving it to McElnay.
Your right it wasn't your most insightful comment on here. Still I have no doubt you will lift your game again and could instantaneously roll out 3 election promises Labour have broken, two social justice memes involving Chloe Swarbric and one confidence and supply agreement clause which Winston never honoured. That just seems to be the calabre your in so I was inquiring about your training regemine.
Ardern tends to only to come out for def' in media on Mondays these days, unless it is certain questioners who ask difficult questions, then for the rest of the week, it depends on how bad the news is.
Purely a guess from me, but they might have a 1-5 scale.
3-5 bad send someone else out.
1-2 Ardern fronts.
Which though is probably completely bollocks, would be kind of sad given how well she fronted with Chch. Might be a dropping a fair bit in the old polls since the election thing.
Ardern's most recent approval rating is 60%. Up slightly. This was from polling after last week's events, when the pundit chatter simply assumed that she had lost support, with no evidence.
Bollocks. She's in the regions encouraging people to get "jabbed", I think Tauranga or somewhere central NI?
Side note, my 13 year old & I got our 2nd dose today, absolutely no side effects, I don't even have a sore arm this time. It's really remarkable how individualistic people's reactions to the vaccination are. My kid is fine too.
Fantasists seem to think that each day there's a meeting of the cabal (what time? 9 am? 12?) and they decide what the PM is going to do that day, based on the case numbers.
Alwyn last time it was Jacinda hogging the lime light now your complaining because Jacinda is going to areas of low vaccination to encourage more vaccinations that's what you call a leader doing the right thing.
Looking at Nationals support base what's left of it .All this whinging is getting you no where.
Chris T – you demonstrably have internet access. Why would you need to physically go to a uni library? Lots of usually paywalled data is freely available for the duration, try this for starters:
You might want to wait until after tomorrow before being too certain about having "absolutely no side effects". I was certainly a bit wiped out for a couple of days there!
Had my second a couple of weeks ago. Had nothing that time.
First one.
Wake up in morning. Walk to kitchen. Start to make cup of tea. Vomit.
From that morning for about 36 hours on couch with bucket. Couldn't even hold water down.
Mentioned it on another article. As I said then. I may just be a weirdo or it happened to co-incide with a bug or something. Never had anything that bad though. I haven't even had the flu before
Oh jeebus, wish I hadn't read that, was quite happy in my blissful ignorance! Fingers crossed I (& my kid) are one of the lucky ones. 
First time I got flu jab years ago I was sick for a couple weeks, & I’d never had flu before (I didn’t even know there was a difference to the cold & the flu).
Should have probably added it was at least for me the weirdo, literally 36 hrs odd and then fine. It wasn't one of those things where it drags on after.
I was just by then insanely hungry and thirsty pretty quickly and probably would have disemboweled any stopping me getting to the fridge with my glass of chilled water and sandwich my wife kindly prepped for me.
She didn't have jack happen by the way. Pommy bitch! . Just looked at me the whole time sliding between pity and "You bloody wimp". She made some funny jokes about it to cheer me up though
alwyn Mr Russell is a talking head along with Hoskings,the grave yard shift and sometimes spins old day music for those types that yearn for the old times.
Just so the 'sillies' can't make up any theories or rave on about the PM not attending 1.00pm briefings, MOH has announced that the weekend's updates will be via its mailouts/website.
Probably so everyone who can be, is working on the Vaxathon.
I wonder what the anti PM/Govt talking points will be in the coming week?
One Nat supporter on the board where the talking points about the PM & attendance were also raised around the same time as Alwyn's, was moved to write that she did not know which was worse, having to combat Covid misinformation, or political weirdness about who fronts the 1.00pm briefings made as if it was relevant to Covid/ Health/vaccinations.
One of the weird things of the age. Ardern is on the covid conferences a lot and people complain. Apparently she's turning the saga into a PR exercise.
And she comes on and she's all waffle and talking to us as if we're kids we’re told.
Then she's not there and people wet their nappies. What the hell is that all about?
It's the political equivalent of searching through the TV channels to find the sex and violence so they can complain about all the sex and violence on TV … with a little too much enthusiasm.
My thought is that is simply projection from the critic's own worldview. So when say; Collins, claims that Ardern is milking 1pm briefings for favorable publicity, what she really means is that if she was in Ardern's position, that's what she'd do herself.
Sometimes lies tell you more than truths – at least about the person speaking.
I actually think the govt did a good job with the initial shutdowns and it saved us some grief last year, though at the same time the roll out of the vaccine and the slowness nearly cancels it out in shitty work.
I have continued to have mixed feelings about the whole elimination thing.
Probably just me
Can't help feeling it was an extremely expensive and damaging way to delay the inevitable for the entire country. god knows how many small businesses are going to go bust, (don't get me started on why butchers, hair dressers, etc etc can't, eating in outside areas are blocked).
I also noticed in amongst medical and education being compulsarirally vaccinated. Where is the prostitutes? I kind of think they shoud kind of be mentioned.
On the other hand it did give us time to build up a, if not ideal, decent vaxed number
Sorry about the ranting ramble there. Was just thinking about stuff, feel free to ignore
See, without modern medicine I probably would have died years ago. Even today my doctor and I play a little game where I live the life I like and he prescribes the best cocktail of meds that will keep me alive a bit longer.
Why is this relevant? Because life is about delaying the inevitable.
If everything goes tits up and we have 7k, 14k, 80k covid deaths, that's still a couple of years more life than those folks would have had under the "live with it in March 2020" crowd.
Fuck businesses. We're talking about actual life, not livelihoods.
So you have given up on the whole trying to reduce poverty thing?
If businesses go under, the owner goes under, and alll the owners workers lose their jobs.
When the owner loses their job they may not be able to pay their mortgage and they lose their house. They may have more than one and are renting one or two. They lose aa well. The bank takes them and says forced sell. Families renting them are kicked out and have no where to live.
The said owners laid off workers have now got no wage so they can't pay their mortgage. The bank takes their house and they have no where to live.
Depending on their wage they may be renting out a flat. The bank takes this also and sells it and the renters are forced to move out with no where to live, because there is nothing cheap enough in the covid bordered area, so they hang out in a car.
Or the only place the workers can find is some shit hole in no where to rent on the dole. So they have to move their kids to that place and their kids have to go to a new school and no longer can see their friends.
But as you say 10s of thousands of people will probably go through this, but at least we kept out an inevitable get here disease for a few months
If businesses need people to die in order to stay in existence, we're doing it the wrong way around.
Maybe the tourism industry has to go the way of the asbestos industry. Maybe not. But killing people so some small businesses can continue operating without adapting is as callous as it is stupid.
but at least we kept out an inevitable get here disease thousands of loved family members alive for a few months
How exactly are you killing people if they are vaxed?
Just out of interest you do know 650 odd people die from car accidents and fku a year?
How many people are YOU willing to let die because their cancer fiscreening/treatment and heart surgeries are being delayed by weeks because of the chance their might be an onslaught of covid people?
Or are they not as important as people who chose not to be vaccinated, and have underlying health conditions?
Are you aware that governments and health planners and modellers actually took into consideration things like delayed health care, and came to understand that more people would die and become disabled if covid was left to run free?
It's not a chance of an onslaught of covid. That's a bizarre statement given what's happened in so many other countries in teh world in the past 18 months. Why would NZ be any different?
Just out of interest you do know 650 odd people die from car accidents and fku a year?
And you appear to be suggesting that we have a bunch of people die from covid in addition to those road and flu deaths. Besides, we do what we can to prevent those deaths, it's not like we go, oh can't spend money on making roads safer.
Yes, but we don't destroy small businesses like butchers, hairdressers, and thousands the hospitality industry when they could be open, as they are no different from going to the pub, dentist or doctor because a car might hit a power pole
car accidents aren't infectious diseases. Really not following your argument here. We do a lot to prevent road deaths, it's not really anything to do with small businesses other than pubs etc, and we do prevention work there too.
We also ban drinking and driving, mandate people wear seatbelts, and have a speed limit.
“How many people are YOU willing to let die because their cancer screening/treatment and heart surgeries are being delayed by weeks because of the chance their might be an onslaught of covid people?”
You have this the wrong way round – delays for the possibility of covid is nothing like the massive demand on hospitals due to actual covid when a 'live with it' strategy was used. For example, from the British Medical Journal:
Why have waiting times increased so much? Solid evidence is not yet available, but several contributors are likely. Operating theatres and outpatient clinics were closed as they became needed to treat patients with covid-19 during the first wave in 2020. Surgical staff, particularly junior surgical and nursing staff, were redeployed to provide cover for extra beds occupied by patients with covid-19 and for staff unable to work because they had covid-19 or were isolating …
Predictive modelling suggests that around 28 million operations were cancelled or postponed globally during the peak 12 weeks of the first wave; this number will surely increase as the pandemic progresses …
In the US, one study estimated that a backlog of at least one million orthopaedic surgical cases would remain two years after elective surgery stopped being deferred because of covid-19
With all due respect. You can't just pluck that from the UK from 8 months ago when piss all people were vaccinated (I think they are still sitting on less than 75% first vaccunation even now) and use it as a model for how it will play out here.
Even at a 95/95/95 assumption (95% vaxxed, 95% no infection in vaxxed, 95% no hospitalisation of infected vaxxed person), that leaves:
750k 0-12yo to spread or get the disease
250k 12+ who are unvaccinated
In addition to those million people, there are another 200k vaxxed people who do not have full protection.
So about a fifth of our population will still be vulnerable to delta. With a vulnerable group that large, what do you think the transmission numbers will be?
Well, assuming even none of them actually get symptoms, there are almost half a million people they can give it to (after trading it to each other at school).
Yeah, but it is just going to happen. As I said earlier. It is a delay to the inevitable. Holding a crucifix up to stop an avalanche hitting you.
I mean a kid under 12 gets it and they inevitably will and spread it, it ain't like you can stop them play fighting, cuddling, with each other, or make them keep masks on. It spreads exponentially.
It is what it is
I would pity parents who tried to though. While also I think I would find it funny watching them try to 🙂
Just need to make sure enough people are vaccinated as possible. And I won't bring up lack of ICU prep, but will probably do on another day
No, it'll never happen. Because that was 95/95/95.
At 90/95/95, that's ~750k kids to spread it, ~430k unvaxxed >=12yo, and ~190k vaxxed but it didn't take.
The longer we put it off, the higher the vax number is and the fewer unvaxxed adults are out there – even if you think child covid won't really happen (it does, but that's another argument).
Sure, ICU beds are an issue, and general health equity, and shit housing (especially emergency housing for poor people). These are the systemic issues over decades that have sown what we reap.
But like whinging hairdressers and restauranteurs, they aren't reasons to just let covid run free as soon as possible. The way to victory here is constant delaying. Cunctator-stylez.
Currently in NZ we have had 2 die and a fairly high inoculation rate and climbing now, so please don't quote shit unvaccinated countries from months ago
"Saying everything should open up"
That isn't what I said but feel free to quote me saying it.
I said places like butchers and hairdressers. Because you know. How dumb arse it I can't get cheap steaks wrapped in paper from a dude in a butcher only he touched with plastic gloves, while then walk to a super market and fart around with a trolley 20 people have used.
And again why are sex workers not closed and forced to vax as it is apparently a ligitamate businesses from labour.
It can't be hard. They contact them through their tax returns and GST claims to vonfirm it
Currently in NZ we have had 2 die and a fairly high inoculation rate and climbing now, so please don't quote shit unvaccinated countries from months ago
Well, it's not like you've presented any others. You don't like my numbers, you don't like Hendy's numbers, how many people do you think will die when we go to level 2 permanently? To keep hairdressers and independent butcheries open so you can have a nice steak?
And going all Palpatine with "it is inevitable" ignores the fact that the longer we wait, the higher our vax level. Where do you think diminishing returns come in? When half a million 12+ are unvaxxed? 750k? 250k? You reject Hendy's numbers, fair enough. Whose numbers do you figure are reasonable? As you say, from a couple thousand cases in a largely vaxxed population we've had two dead and currently 617 active cases and 26 in hospital.
How many cases will occur to make you put up with a supermarket steak (and they should have sanitising wipes for the trolley, complain if they don't)?
And again why are sex workers not closed and forced to vax as it is apparently a ligitamate businesses from labour.
It can't be hard. They contact them through their tax returns and GST claims to vonfirm it
Are the brothels still open? How does one "close" an itinerant sex worker? If indeed those rumours are true, rather than just dodgy assumptions.
Actually, the businesses with regular accounts probably qualify for the wage relief. In lieu of providing other relief. And, like hairdressing, I suspect that the business value is in the skills and practitioner reputation rather than capital investment, so would be easier to start up again if things go tits-up.
I didn't mean child covid won't happen. I meant as they play together the vast vast vast majority will be fine while then giving it to adults who may not be.
Now parks are open. it is just going to happen.
Agree health lack of infrestucture is a decades old issue and there are two certain PM's who spent 18 years between them in charge who basically fucked it. Same with housing, but another discussion.
"But like whinging hairdressers and restauranteurs, "
They are dying and looking at having to tell their staff they are sacked. How hard is this to get?
The wage subsidy cover exactly that. Not rent. Power. GST. Insurance. ACC. Food spoilage and throwing away because the govt demands we have to wait till a certain time on a monday afternoon to say any actual shit and they have to be prepared at any time to try to open.
And even that has a limit of 600 bucks a week I think and is taxed, so the small business owner has to top that up so their staff can pay shit like their mortgage when they are normally on about 2 k a week And you have to justify it every 2 weeks
I know Labour don't get it as they think all businesses are the size of Microsoft as and all the business owners are evil, none have had to run one, but they need to to start sourcing advice from the business community rather than tight arsed, probably still living with mum stats dude from Wellington.
They are dying and looking at having to tell their staff they are sacked. How hard is this to get?
No they're not dying. They're looking at losing money and winding up their business.
I'm involved with a peekaboo (lol pcbu in the osh parlance) that is in the shit right now. We will probably be able to keep operating, but yeah, it's tough.
You know what's more tough? Actually dying.
Saying everything should open up and disease should walk the land so I can keep my business profitable would be almost sociopathic. But there's this affliction amongst many SMEs where their owner-operators care more about their bottom line than literally the lives of other people.
So yeah, we can still minimise the spread until as many people are vaccinated who can be. Some kids in parks might spread it around a bit more than everyone adhering to L4 standards, but full classrooms definitely will. Same with malls.
I never aid Auckland should go to level 2. It is fairly obvious it won't for a while.
I just said small businesses like butchers and hairdressers etc etc should be allowed to open.
I have tried to be diplomatic but frankly I am beginning to run out of patience, The govts qualification for who can open and can't with risk at level 3 in Auckland is fucking shit.
OK Let me put it this way as the other isn;t working. Why can't butchers be open with proper shop access?
Why can't butchers be open with proper shop access?
Some possibilities come to mind:
Lower numbers of people going to work lowers the spead.
Supermarkets are open anyway (although not sure their meat counters were attended under L3? My local just had the refridgerated shelves, no actual butcher measuring stuff out). Having supermarkets and butchers open is redundant – at least hairdressers provide a different service.
Limited venues means controlled access easier to monitor by wandering cops/inspectors.
Lower number of queues for contagious person to stand in while shopping that day means lower number of places of interest in a couple of days time.
I'm pretty sure that sex workers shouldn't actually be operating under L3, so not sure what power a vaccine mandate would hold over the ones currently operating.
But also I'm not sure all of them operate as registered businesses with appropriate ACC levy registration (which would probably be slightly more accurate than companies or gst documentation – for the ones that do their full paperwork).
I mean, stunning idea for people in the privileged classes I know, but not all financial transactions or operations are duly reported to the government.
You can't just pluck that from the UK from 8 months ago
Your whole thread went back to the beginning of the pandemic and your mixed feelings on the elimination strategy. The most likely scenario for delays in non-covid treatment, is covid itself, not some strategy of bed and appointment blocking 'just in case' (in fact NZ did clear space for the worst happening but we never had to implement that plan in any major way).
We can't use NZ as an example of what happens when we open up now – because it the covid pandemic didn't happen, we're not starting with a covid-induced backlog. We'll find out more in our vaccinated future shortly.
As weka suggests, they plan for this stuff. That's the question – do you trust the planning or not?
Depends who is doing the planning. I certainly don't trust that hendy dude's who was basically just given millions bt labour with no proper best of practice on who to use.
"Your whole thread went back to the beginning of the pandemic and your mixed feelings on the elimination strategy."
This is a fair point.
I did say it was a rambling rant, but I should have been more clear in the difference status of countries situations vax verse infection wise, sorry.
How? That's what would have happened if the business uber alles crowd had gotten their way a year and a half ago. Look at… damned near every other nation on the planet.
And the impact on other medical care is a valid, quantifiable question to ask (with reasonable data and reporting) – but it's a lot different to removing disease controls so we can preserve the cashflows of "just cutz" or "try hair".
But then you'd also be factoring in ICU occupancy during a pandemic and other outbreak-related impacts on the healthcare system, right? Right?
As for vaccination, it's a tool in the box. But it's not 100%, and some people will still die when this thing is endemic. That happens. And the predicted math of dead in that circumstances should be balanced against any dead you happen to be able to think of when you are reminded why we have these allegedly business-destroying lockdowns (although our GDP seems to suggest that a healthy population has fewer lockdowns and more economic activity than a plagueland).
But the business sector should not be a consideration in any "opening up" decision.
Now do the costs associated with hundreds of people likely not working, or working reduced hours, for months post infection.
How will this play out for the working population?
Using UK data to inform assumptions around vaccination effectiveness at stopping infections and lowering the likelihood of hospitalisation if infected, we have projected numbers of cases, hospitalisations, ICU and ‘long COVID’
for Australian workers consistent with the Doherty modelling.
In summary, our projections result in just over 100,000 COVID-19 infections in workers leading to around 10,000 hospitalisations, of which 700 are admitted to ICU. Up to (or perhaps even exceeding) 7,000 long COVID cases may develop who are fully off work, and twice as many again will still be on reduced work, 7 months later.
Vaccination changes the risk of infection and hospitalisation significantly. 42,000 COVID-19 cases are projected from the vaccinated workforce of 7.2 million workers. 64,000 COVID-19 cases are projected to come from unvaccinated workers (1.8 million workers).
Andrew little said on the radio tonight that 95% of infections will not have to go to hospital and can be looked after with visits to home for food etc.
Has he not read you 10% hospitalisation modelling?
Also. You can't model long covid. They are still not sure what it is.
long covid rates are estimated to be between 10% and something like 30%. That rate should be lower in fully vaccinated people, but, we don't know yet how that will play out, and we don't know if new variants will be worse.
Two grand nieces with covid were at home in outer Sydney, had home monitoring including oxygen monitoring via the finger. Both are fine but they were already vaccinated.
Hospitalisations aside, anywhere between an estimated 25% and 80% of infected patients will be saddled with one or more long-term symptom/s. Should those numbers come to pass, good luck accessing anything resembling timely medical care in a health system that's near on it's knees today.
I think one of the things on our side. (Well apart from Auckland maybe. Sorry guys!), is the fact we have a pretty impressive amount of space to people ratio outside the big cities.
We may end up with Omega Man like cities and loads of farmers turning them into dairy farms. Moaning that Aucklanders only left them one bridge to get them to the milking sheds.
Apparently rural areas in the US are getting hit hard now – not just because of maga vax hesitancy.
Sure, one can spend all one's time on the farm, but one eventually goes into towd – the supply store, the bar, the church, the parts store, the vet supply store. And they see everyone in the area who eventually comes into town. The node with many edges comes into play again.
And then the farmers die in greater number because they're further from help.
Hairdressers have been going gangbusters around lockdown restrictions, it's not something most people can generally do themselves, & you seem to not have noticed that butcher shops are probably at 10% of the numbers they once were at but not due to covid or any restrictions. They started to become a thing of the past due to supermarkets. Other businesses have modified how they do things in a meaningful way since the 2020 lockdown – local garage ie operates 4 days a week now not 5 with no reduction in anyone's wages or the volume of service they provide. They've condensed it to less down time over the week. There are valuable things to learn from operating more effectively, when done well it also benefits retail along the line as well
Nearly; AFdeV, but something is off with the second line of your limerick. I think it needs another syllable in the second triplet (or at least a comma) eg With grave and most deadly persistance. Also There's & there is, would work better swapped between the fourth and fifth lines (or maybe On instead of Upon). Plus it's not obscene at all! Though I guess that could be implied in the threatened existence.
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Two grand nieces with covid were at home in outer Sydney, had home monitoring including oxygen monitoring via the finger. Both are fine but they were already vaccinated.
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Hi,I am just going to state something very obvious: American police are fucking crazy.That was a photo gracing the New York Times this morning, showing New York City police “entering Columbia University last night after receiving a request from the school.”Apparently in America, protesting the deaths of tens of thousands ...
Winston Peters’ much anticipated foreign policy speech last night was a work of two halves. Much of it was a standard “boilerplate” Foreign Ministry overview of the state of the world. There was some hardening up of rhetoric with talk of “benign” becoming “malign” and old truths giving way to ...
Graham Adams assesses the fallout of the Cass Review — The press release last Thursday from the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women and girls didn’t make the mainstream news in New Zealand but it really should have. The startling title of Reem Alsalem’s statement — “Implementation of ‘Cass ...
This open-for-business, under-new-management cliché-pockmarked government of Christopher Luxon is not the thing of beauty he imagines it to be. It is not the powerful expression of the will of the people that he asserts it to be. It is not a soaring eagle, it is a malodorous vulture. This newest poll should make ...
The latest labour market statistics, showing a rise in unemployment. There are now 134,000 unemployed - 14,000 more than when the National government took office. Which is I guess what happens when the Reserve Bank causes a recession in an effort to Keep Wages Low. The previous government saw a ...
Three opinion polls have been released in the last two days, all showing that the new government is failing to hold their popular support. The usual honeymoon experienced during the first year of a first term government is entirely absent. The political mood is still gloomy and discontented, mainly due ...
National's Finance Minister once met a poor person.A scornful interview with National's finance guru who knows next to nothing about economics or people.There might have been something a bit familiar if that was the headline I’d gone with today. It would of course have been in tribute to the article ...
Rob MacCulloch writes – Throughout the pandemic, the new Vice-Chancellor-of-Otago-University-on-$629,000 per annum-Can-you-believe-it-and-Former-Finance-Minister Grant Robertson repeated the mantra over and over that he saved “lives and livelihoods”.As we update how this claim is faring over the course of time, the facts are increasingly speaking differently. NZ ...
Chris Trotter writes – IT’S A COMMONPLACE of political speeches, especially those delivered in acknowledgement of electoral victory: “We’ll govern for all New Zealanders.” On the face of it, the pledge is a strange one. Why would any political leader govern in ways that advantaged the huge ...
Bryce Edwards writes – The list of former National Party Ministers being given plum and important roles got longer this week with the appointment of former Deputy Prime Minister Paula Bennett as the chair of Pharmac. The Christopher Luxon-led Government has now made key appointments to Bill ...
TL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy at 10:06am on Wednesday, May 1:The Lead: Business confidence fell across the board in April, falling in some areas to levels last seen during the lockdowns because of a collapse in ...
Over the past 36 hours, Christopher Luxon has been dong his best to portray the centre-right’s plummeting poll numbers as a mark of virtue. Allegedly, the negative verdicts are the result of hard economic times, and of a government bravely set out on a perilous rescue mission from which not ...
Auckland Transport have started rolling out new HOP card readers around the network and over the next three months, all of them on buses, at train stations and ferry wharves will be replaced. The change itself is not that remarkable, with the new readers looking similar to what is already ...
Completed reads for April: The Difference Engine, by William Gibson and Bruce Sterling Carnival of Saints, by George Herman The Snow Spider, by Jenny Nimmo Emlyn’s Moon, by Jenny Nimmo The Chestnut Soldier, by Jenny Nimmo Death Comes As the End, by Agatha Christie Lord of the Flies, by ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
Have a story to share about St Paul’s, but today just picturesPopular novels written at this desk by a young man who managed to bootstrap himself out of father’s imprisonment and his own young life in a workhouse Read more ...
The list of former National Party Ministers being given plum and important roles got longer this week with the appointment of former Deputy Prime Minister Paula Bennett as the chair of Pharmac. The Christopher Luxon-led Government has now made key appointments to Bill English, Simon Bridges, Steven Joyce, Roger Sowry, ...
Newsroom has a story today about National's (fortunately failed) effort to disestablish the newly-created Inspector-General of Defence. The creation of this agency was the key recommendation of the Inquiry into Operation Burnham, and a vital means of restoring credibility and social licence to an agency which had been caught lying ...
Holding On To The Present:The moment a political movement arises that attacks the whole idea of social progress, and announces its intention to wind back the hands of History’s clock, then democracy, along with its unwritten rules, is in mortal danger.IT’S A COMMONPLACE of political speeches, especially those delivered in ...
Stuck In The Middle With You:As Christopher Luxon feels the hot breath of Act’s and NZ First’s extremists on the back of his neck and, as he reckons with the damage their policies are already inflicting upon a country he’s described as “fragile”, is there not some merit in reaching out ...
The unpopular coalition government is currently rushing to repeal section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act. The clause is Oranga Tamariki's Treaty clause, and was inserted after its systematic stealing of Māori children became a public scandal and resulted in physical resistance to further abductions. The clause created clear obligations ...
Buzz from the Beehive The government’s official website – which Point of Order monitors daily – not for the first time has nothing much to say today about political happenings that are grabbing media headlines. It makes no mention of the latest 1News-Verian poll, for example. This shows National down ...
It Takes A Train To Cry:Surely, there is nothing lonelier in all this world than the long wail of a distant steam locomotive on a cold Winter’s night.AS A CHILD, I would lie awake in my grandfather’s house and listen to the traffic. The big wooden house was only a ...
Packing A Punch: The election of the present government, including in its ranks politicians dedicated to reasserting the rights of the legislature in shaping and determining the future of Māori and Pakeha in New Zealand, should have alerted the judiciary – including its anomalous appendage, the Waitangi Tribunal – that its ...
Dead Woman Walking: New Zealand’s media industry had been moving steadily towards disaster for all the years Melissa Lee had been National’s media and communications policy spokesperson, and yet, when the crisis finally broke, on her watch, she had nothing intelligent to offer. Christopher Luxon is a patient man - but he’s not ...
Chris Trotter writes – New Zealand politics is remarkably easy-going: dangerously so, one might even say. With the notable exception of John Key’s flat ruling-out of the NZ First Party in 2008, all parties capable of clearing MMP’s five-percent threshold, or winning one or more electorate seats, tend ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Polling shows that Wellington Mayor Tory Whanau has the lowest approval rating of any mayor in the country. Siting at -12 per cent, the proportion of constituents who disapprove of her performance outweighs those who give her the thumbs up. This negative rating is ...
Luxon will no doubt put a brave face on it, but there is no escaping the pressure this latest poll will put on him and the government. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political ...
This is a re-post from The Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler In the wake of any unusual weather event, someone inevitably asks, “Did climate change cause this?” In the most literal sense, that answer is almost always no. Climate change is never the sole cause of hurricanes, heat waves, droughts, or ...
Something odd happened yesterday, and I’d love to know if there’s more to it. If there was something which preempted what happened, or if it was simply a throwaway line in response to a journalist.Yesterday David Seymour was asked at a press conference what the process would be if the ...
Hi,From time to time, I want to bring Webworm into the real world. We did it last year with the Jurassic Park event in New Zealand — which was a lot of fun!And so on Saturday May 11th, in Los Angeles, I am hosting a lil’ Webworm pop-up! I’ve been ...
Education Minister Erica Standford yesterday unveiled a fundamental reform of the way our school pupils are taught. She would not exactly say so, but she is all but dismantling the so-called “inquiry” “feel good” method of teaching, which has ruled in our classrooms since a major review of the New ...
Exactly where are we seriously going with this government and its policies? That is, apart from following what may as well be a Truss-Lite approach on the purported economic “plan“, and Victorian-era regression when it comes to social policy.Oh it’ll work this time of course, we’re basically assured, “the ...
Hey Uncle Dave, When the Poms joined the EEC, I wasn't one of those defeatists who said, Well, that’s it for the dairy job. And I was right, eh? The Chinese can’t get enough of our milk powder and eventually, the Poms came to their senses and backed up the ute ...
Polling shows that Wellington Mayor Tory Whanau has the lowest approval rating of any mayor in the country. Siting at -12 per cent, the proportion of constituents who disapprove of her performance outweighs those who give her the thumbs up. This negative rating is higher than for any other mayor ...
Buzz from the Beehive Pharmac has been given a financial transfusion and a new chair to oversee its spending in the pharmaceutical business. Associate Health Minister David Seymour described the funding for Pharmac as “its largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff”. ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Many criticisms are being made of the Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill, including by this writer. But as with everything in politics, every story has two sides, and both deserve attention. It’s important to understand what the Government is trying to achieve and its ...
TL;DR: Here’s my top 10 ‘pick ‘n’ mix of links to news, analysis and opinion articles as of 10:10am on Monday, April 29:Scoop: The children's ward at Rotorua Hospital will be missing a third of its beds as winter hits because Te Whatu Ora halted an upgrade partway through to ...
span class=”dropcap”>As hideous as David Seymour can be, it is worth keeping in mind occasionally that there are even worse political figures (and regimes) out there. Iran for instance, is about to execute the country’s leading hip hop musician Toomaj Salehi, for writing and performing raps that “corrupt” the nation’s ...
Yesterday marked 10 years since the first electric train carried passengers in Auckland so it’s a good time to look back at it and the impact it has had. A brief history The first proposals for rail electrification in Auckland came in the 1920’s alongside the plans for earlier ...
Right now, in Aotearoa-NZ, our ‘animal spirits’ are darkening towards a winter of discontent, thanks at least partly to a chorus of negative comments and actions from the Government Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on ...
You make people evil to punish the paststuck inside a sequel with a rotating castThe following photos haven’t been generated with AI, or modified in any way. They are flesh and blood, human beings. On the left is Galatea Young, a young mum, and her daughter Fiadh who has Angelman ...
April has been a quiet month at A Phuulish Fellow. I have had an exceptionally good reading month, and a decently productive writing month – for original fiction, anyway – but not much has caught my eye that suggested a blog article. It has been vaguely frustrating, to be honest. ...
A listing of 31 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 21, 2024 thru Sat, April 27, 2024. Story of the week Anthropogenic climate change may be the ultimate shaggy dog story— but with a twist, because here ...
Hi,I spent about a year on Webworm reporting on an abusive megachurch called Arise, and it made me want to stab my eyes out with a fork.I don’t regret that reporting in 2022 and 2023 — I am proud of it — but it made me angry.Over three main stories ...
The new Victoria University Vice-Chancellor decided to have a forum at the university about free speech and academic freedom as it is obviously a topical issue, and the Government is looking at legislating some carrots or sticks for universities to uphold their obligations under the Education and Training Act. They ...
Do you remember when Melania Trump got caught out using a speech that sounded awfully like one Michelle Obama had given? Uncannily so.Well it turns out that Abraham Lincoln is to Winston Peters as Michelle was to Melania. With the ANZAC speech Uncle Winston gave at Gallipoli having much in ...
She was born 25 years ago today in North Shore hospital. Her eyes were closed tightly shut, her mouth was silently moving. The whole theatre was all quiet intensity as they marked her a 2 on the APGAR test. A one-minute eternity later, she was an 8. The universe was ...
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by Sue Bin Park in collaboration with members from our Skeptical Science team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline. Is Antarctica gaining land ice? ...
Images of US students (and others) protesting and setting up tent cities on US university campuses have been broadcast world wide and clearly demonstrate the growing rifts in US society caused by US policy toward Israel and Israel’s prosecution of … Continue reading → ...
Barrie Saunders writes – Dear Paul As the new Minister of Media and Communications, you will be inundated with heaps of free advice and special pleading, all in the national interest of course. For what it’s worth here is my assessment: Traditional broadcasting free to air content through ...
Many criticisms are being made of the Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill, including by this writer. But as with everything in politics, every story has two sides, and both deserve attention. It’s important to understand what the Government is trying to achieve and its arguments for such a bold reform. ...
Peter Dunne writes – The great nineteenth British Prime Minister, William Gladstone, once observed that “the first essential for a Prime Minister is to be a good butcher.” When a later British Prime Minister, Harold Macmillan, sacked a third of his Cabinet in July 1962, in what became ...
Ele Ludemann writes – New Zealanders had the OECD’s second highest tax increase last year: New Zealanders faced the second-biggest tax raises in the developed world last year, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) says. The intergovernmental agency said the average change in personal income tax ...
We all know something’s not right with our elections. The spread of misinformation, people being targeted with soundbites and emotional triggers that ignore the facts, even the truth, and influence their votes.The use of technology to produce deep fakes. How can you tell if something is real or not? Can ...
This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Simon Clark. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). This year you will be lied to! Simon Clark helps prebunk some misleading statements you'll hear about climate. The video includes ...
It is all very well cutting the backrooms of public agencies but it may compromise the frontlines. One of the frustrations of the Productivity Commission’s 2017 review of universities is that while it observed that their non-academic staff were increasing faster than their academic staff, it did not bother to ...
Buzz from the Beehive Two speeches delivered by Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters at Anzac Day ceremonies in Turkey are the only new posts on the government’s official website since the PM announced his Cabinet shake-up. In one of the speeches, Peters stated the obvious: we live in a troubled ...
1. Which of these would you not expect to read in The Waikato Invader?a. Luxon is here to do business, don’t you worry about thatb. Mr KPI expects results, and you better believe itc. This decisive man of action is getting me all hot and excitedd. Melissa Lee is how ...
…it has a restricted jurisdiction which must not be abused: it is not an inquisitionNOTE – this article was published before the High Court ruled that Karen Chhour does not have to appear before the Waitangi Tribunal Gary Judd writes – The High Court ...
Lindsay Mitchell writes – One of reasons Oranga Tamariki exists is to prevent child neglect. But could the organisation itself be guilty of the same?Oranga Tamariki’s statistics show a decrease in the number and age of children in care. “There are less children ...
David Farrar writes: Graeme Edgeler wrote in 2017: In the first five years after three strikes came into effect 5248 offenders received a ‘first strike’ (that is, a “stage-1 conviction” under the three strikes sentencing regime), and 68 offenders received a ‘second strike’. In the five years prior to ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has surprised everyone with his ruthlessness in sacking two of his ministers from their crucial portfolios. Removing ministers for poor performance after only five months in the job just doesn’t normally happen in politics. That’s refreshing and will be extremely ...
The Labour Party is saddened to learn of the death of Sir Robert Martin, a globally renowned disability advocate who led the way for disability rights both in New Zealand and internationally. ...
Labour is calling for the Government to urgently rethink its coalition commitment to restart live animal exports, Labour animal welfare spokesperson Rachel Boyack said. ...
Today’s Financial Stability Report has once again highlighted that poverty and deep inequality are political choices - and this Government is choosing to make them worse. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to do more for our households in most need as unemployment rises and the cost of living crisis endures. ...
Unemployment is on the rise and it’s only going to get worse under this Government, Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said. Stats NZ figures show the unemployment rate grew to 4.3 percent in the March quarter from 4 percent in the December quarter. “This is the second rise in unemployment ...
The New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...
The National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...
This afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...
Te Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...
Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...
Tonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
The Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...
Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...
The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...
Cuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
More essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...
Te Pāti Māori is disgusted at the confirmation that hundreds are set to lose their jobs at Oranga Tamariki, and the disestablishment of the Treaty Response Unit. “This act of absolute carelessness and out of touch decision making is committing tamariki to state abuse.” Said Te Pāti Māori Oranga Tamariki ...
The Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...
Cancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...
A laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi, and Mema Paremata mō Tāmaki-Makaurau, Takutai Tarsh Kemp, will travel to the Gold Coast to strengthen ties with Māori in Australia next week (15-21 April). The visit, in the lead-up to the 9th Australian National Kapa haka Festival, will be an opportunity for both ...
Structured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...
The rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...
The Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...
New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...
Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...
From today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...
People with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...
Kiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...
There are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...
The return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...
The coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...
The Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...
The Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay heads overseas today for high-level trade talks in the Gulf region, and a key OECD meeting in Paris. Mr McClay will travel to Riyadh to meet with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). “New Zealand’s goods and services exports to the Gulf region ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford has outlined six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system that sets Kiwi kids up for future success. “I’m putting ambition, achievement and outcomes at the heart of our education system. I want every child to be inspired and engaged in their learning so they ...
The new NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) App is a secure ‘one stop shop’ to provide the services drivers need, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Digitising Government Minister Judith Collins say. “The NZTA App will enable an easier way for Kiwis to pay for Vehicle Registration and Road User Charges (RUC). ...
Whānau with tamariki growing up in emergency housing motels will be prioritised for social housing starting this week, says Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka. “Giving these whānau a better opportunity to build healthy stable lives for themselves and future generations is an essential part of the Government’s goal of reducing ...
Racing Minister Winston Peters has paid tribute to an icon of the industry with the recent passing of Dave O’Sullivan (OBE). “Our sympathies are with the O’Sullivan family with the sad news of Dave O’Sullivan’s recent passing,” Mr Peters says. “His contribution to racing, initially as a jockey and then ...
Assalaamu alaikum, greetings to you all. Eid Mubarak, everyone! I want to extend my warmest wishes to you and everyone celebrating this joyous occasion. It is a pleasure to be here. I have enjoyed Eid celebrations at Parliament before, but this is my first time joining you as the Minister ...
Associate Health Minister David Seymour has announced Pharmac’s largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff. “Access to medicines is a crucial part of many Kiwis’ lives. We’ve committed to a budget allocation of $1.774 billion over four years so Kiwis are ...
Hon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...
Hundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says. “Every day, ...
Regional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges. “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...
Ambassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service. It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...
Distinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...
Mai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia. Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...
Paul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...
Recreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...
The coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...
Overseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...
Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith is today travelling to Europe where he’ll update the United Nations Human Rights Council on the Government’s work to restore law and order. “Attending the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva provides us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while ...
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I see that Kennedy's remark after the shambles that was The Bay of Pigs is equally true in New Zealand.
"Victory has a hundred fathers and defeat is an orphan"
It would seem that Dr Caroline McElnay was stuck with announcing that there were 71 cases of Covid 19 today. Where was the PM? Where was Hipkins? Where was Bloomfield?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300430651/covid19-outbreak-situation-report-what-happened-today-october-14
This got old over a year ago. It's bad if they're there, it's bad if they're not, toss a coin for the tiresome.
Different people on different days. As always. And decided in advance. But you know all this already.
This tiresome thought in post 1 has surfaced on another board I frequent. Apart from being rubbish it is so obvious that they are not original spontaneous thoughts occurring across the nation.. Almost as if the Nats or whoevers have sent out talking points.
Who cares who fronts? As long as they are competent and Hipkins and Robertson mostly certainly are competent. Bloomfield and McElnay similarly.
I noticed that JC was very scathing that the PM did not front over this past weekend, as if she was having a zzzzz somewhere or just decided not to to walk down from Premier House. JC seemed to forget that the PM was in places like Murupara and the East Coast being part of a drive to up the vaccination rates in those areas.
I know the work I feel is most important and it is not fronting a a weekend Beehive session that could be competently fronted by others
It intrigues me that there seems to be a deliberate policy of not explaining why govt policy has failed to contain the Delta spread whereas it succeeded with the original contagion last year. I'm aware Delta is way more infectious, but we have a tendency in the public to try and blame boundary runners for the spread. I haven't noticed any effort by the authorities to either confirm or deny whether they're guilty.
Could be govt is clueless & prefers not to let on. Human nature. But the idea of transparent governance is that you inform the public when it's in the public interest. I reckon people like to connect cause & effect, so if they don't get official explanations they just make it up as they go along. Semi-plausible narratives will get traction. Dunno if it's wise of officialdom to turn a blind eye to those.
It's pretty obvious
1.case numbers spread out a lot in the initial period, so it took a month to shut the clusters down.
2. to then eliminate would have required weeks more at Level 4 (tough but doable – the government now likes to say, there was no guarantee it would have worked as reason to give up on elimination this year).
2a – they were complacent under elimination and did not have rapid testing at essential workplaces (such as a 15 minute test before entry into a hospital).
3. the plan to open up – including a trial of business workers in home isolation (some risk) before opening up next year with vaccination rolled out.
The dichotomy between 2 and 3 was too much.
So they moved to Level 3 and committed to never going back to Level 4. Instead they had a plan to go down towards level 2 via Level 3 lite.
Now we have community spread that will go over 100 a day by the end of the month. It'll go higher in November and modellers will call for a Level 4 period to take numbers back down again – at some point this is likely (if only for a week or two).
We'll cope provided
1. we contain it in Auckland – then we can transfer health workers into Auckland as need be.
2. we get boosters to those vaxxed earlier in the year to prevent breakthrough infections in health workers and the medically vulnerable (oldies before Christmas).
Even giving you the first part of that proviso; SPC (which seems optimistic), where do you propose that we get the health workers to transfer into Auckland? NZNO members in particular are unlikely to do so simply because the current Minister of Health asks them to! Which leaves Immigration or Conscription – both problematic to my mind.
6 more weeks containment in Auckland till we get to the second dose plus 2 weeks for full immunity is what is wanted/needed
Staff have already gone to one Auckland hospital to help out, and given our increased ICU capacity consists of local nurses recently trained up (and with no experience in this work) or more experienced staff who have managed few pandemic cases they might well volunteer for such secondment – either as completion of their training or preparation for their 2022 jobs locally.
what's the fully vaxxed rate for Auckland currently? Had a look before and couldn't find it.
Auckland is c65% double vaxxed, and over 85% single dose.
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data#group
Just scroll the page to the DHB per 1000 stat.
thanks! The words in that chart didn't turn up on a keyword search.
are you thinking in 6 weeks Auckland will be at 90% double?
Yes.
Other areas will get there by the end of the year, but not all.
Oz and world data.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/covid-19-global-vaccine-tracker-and-data-centre-20210128-p56xht.html
My understanding is that this is basically due to investigations taking more time than the speed of the news cycle. We have in some cases been made aware of how inter regional transmission might have started such as the guy from Auckland district courts going to outside Auckland (and apparently catching it off his transport). I also doubt the media would do much with comprehensive case notes anyway because these would necessarily be days to weeks out of date and the focus is going to be on whats just happened today.
As usual Alwyn I am astounded by your encyclopedic knowledge of memes, sayings and especially the prior promises and eventual failures of our (more left leaning) elected representatives.
Can you let us in on your secret. Do you keep a database of things Jacinda said, or that Grant put his hand in the pocket for? Do you have a revision schedule for keeping up to date with the latest let down?
My only comment here about Ms Ardern was that she didn't appear to be at today's briefing. That is the only thing I said. How does that become something to cause you to decide that you should come out with " I am astounded by your encyclopedic knowledge of memes," etc?
that's not all you said. You also said via implication that Ardern, Hipkins and Bloomfield should have fronted announcing 71 cases instead of leaving it to McElnay.
Your right it wasn't your most insightful comment on here. Still I have no doubt you will lift your game again and could instantaneously roll out 3 election promises Labour have broken, two social justice memes involving Chloe Swarbric and one confidence and supply agreement clause which Winston never honoured. That just seems to be the calabre your in so I was inquiring about your training regemine.
For an older "gentleman" you sure make a lot of childish noises.
Ardern tends to only to come out for def' in media on Mondays these days, unless it is certain questioners who ask difficult questions, then for the rest of the week, it depends on how bad the news is.
Purely a guess from me, but they might have a 1-5 scale.
3-5 bad send someone else out.
1-2 Ardern fronts.
Which though is probably completely bollocks, would be kind of sad given how well she fronted with Chch. Might be a dropping a fair bit in the old polls since the election thing.
Ardern's most recent approval rating is 60%. Up slightly. This was from polling after last week's events, when the pundit chatter simply assumed that she had lost support, with no evidence.
https://twitter.com/oneforthedr/status/1448457378370703367/photo/1
Bollocks. She's in the regions encouraging people to get "jabbed", I think Tauranga or somewhere central NI?
Side note, my 13 year old & I got our 2nd dose today, absolutely no side effects, I don't even have a sore arm this time. It's really remarkable how individualistic people's reactions to the vaccination are. My kid is fine too.
Fantasists seem to think that each day there's a meeting of the cabal (what time? 9 am? 12?) and they decide what the PM is going to do that day, based on the case numbers.
A moment's thought shows how absurd that is.
Alwyn last time it was Jacinda hogging the lime light now your complaining because Jacinda is going to areas of low vaccination to encourage more vaccinations that's what you call a leader doing the right thing.
Looking at Nationals support base what's left of it .All this whinging is getting you no where.
Can you please show me where I claimed that "it was Jacinda hogging the lime light"?
Know what you mean.
It is an interesting thing eh?
Must just be a differing immune system balance or something, Or a genes thing.
Almost makes me want to rock up to the uni library and do some reading.
Chris T – you demonstrably have internet access. Why would you need to physically go to a uni library? Lots of usually paywalled data is freely available for the duration, try this for starters:
https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus/collection?startPage=¤tPage=&ContentItemCategory=Articles
IFL
You might want to wait until after tomorrow before being too certain about having "absolutely no side effects". I was certainly a bit wiped out for a couple of days there!
Had my second a couple of weeks ago. Had nothing that time.
First one.
Wake up in morning. Walk to kitchen. Start to make cup of tea. Vomit.
From that morning for about 36 hours on couch with bucket. Couldn't even hold water down.
Mentioned it on another article. As I said then. I may just be a weirdo or it happened to co-incide with a bug or something. Never had anything that bad though. I haven't even had the flu before
Oh jeebus, wish I hadn't read that, was quite happy in my blissful ignorance! Fingers crossed I (& my kid) are one of the lucky ones. 
First time I got flu jab years ago I was sick for a couple weeks, & I’d never had flu before (I didn’t even know there was a difference to the cold & the flu).
I wouldn't worry about it. As I say, I may just be a weirdo or I happened to have a bug at the same time.
I work in a big department. 90% I spoke to basically said sore arm for a bit, either slightly sorer the first or second.
Couple of others felt a little nausea.
Only one other had the nausea hitting throwing up level thing, and theirs was just half a day or so.
Don't let it put anyone off. Everyone needs to do it, And the slim chance of a little discomfort is frankly a small price to pay for the greater good.
If it helps the second jab I made sure was Friday afternoon so if it happened again I had the weekend.
Should have probably added it was at least for me the weirdo, literally 36 hrs odd and then fine. It wasn't one of those things where it drags on after.
I was just by then insanely hungry and thirsty pretty quickly and probably would have disemboweled any stopping me getting to the fridge with my glass of chilled water and sandwich my wife kindly prepped for me.
She didn't have jack happen by the way. Pommy bitch! . Just looked at me the whole time sliding between pity and "You bloody wimp". She made some funny jokes about it to cheer me up though
@alwyn are you Bruce Russell in a closed orbit.
Since I haven't the faintest idea who this friend of yours(?) named Bruce Russell is I couldn't possibly comment.
alwyn Mr Russell is a talking head along with Hoskings,the grave yard shift and sometimes spins old day music for those types that yearn for the old times.
Just so the 'sillies' can't make up any theories or rave on about the PM not attending 1.00pm briefings, MOH has announced that the weekend's updates will be via its mailouts/website.
Probably so everyone who can be, is working on the Vaxathon.
I wonder what the anti PM/Govt talking points will be in the coming week?
One Nat supporter on the board where the talking points about the PM & attendance were also raised around the same time as Alwyn's, was moved to write that she did not know which was worse, having to combat Covid misinformation, or political weirdness about who fronts the 1.00pm briefings made as if it was relevant to Covid/ Health/vaccinations.
One of the weird things of the age. Ardern is on the covid conferences a lot and people complain. Apparently she's turning the saga into a PR exercise.
And she comes on and she's all waffle and talking to us as if we're kids we’re told.
Then she's not there and people wet their nappies. What the hell is that all about?
It's the political equivalent of searching through the TV channels to find the sex and violence so they can complain about all the sex and violence on TV … with a little too much enthusiasm.
My thought is that is simply projection from the critic's own worldview. So when say; Collins, claims that Ardern is milking 1pm briefings for favorable publicity, what she really means is that if she was in Ardern's position, that's what she'd do herself.
Sometimes lies tell you more than truths – at least about the person speaking.
I actually think the govt did a good job with the initial shutdowns and it saved us some grief last year, though at the same time the roll out of the vaccine and the slowness nearly cancels it out in shitty work.
I have continued to have mixed feelings about the whole elimination thing.
Probably just me
Can't help feeling it was an extremely expensive and damaging way to delay the inevitable for the entire country. god knows how many small businesses are going to go bust, (don't get me started on why butchers, hair dressers, etc etc can't, eating in outside areas are blocked).
I also noticed in amongst medical and education being compulsarirally vaccinated. Where is the prostitutes? I kind of think they shoud kind of be mentioned.
On the other hand it did give us time to build up a, if not ideal, decent vaxed number
Sorry about the ranting ramble there. Was just thinking about stuff, feel free to ignore
See, without modern medicine I probably would have died years ago. Even today my doctor and I play a little game where I live the life I like and he prescribes the best cocktail of meds that will keep me alive a bit longer.
Why is this relevant? Because life is about delaying the inevitable.
If everything goes tits up and we have 7k, 14k, 80k covid deaths, that's still a couple of years more life than those folks would have had under the "live with it in March 2020" crowd.
Fuck businesses. We're talking about actual life, not livelihoods.
So you have given up on the whole trying to reduce poverty thing?
If businesses go under, the owner goes under, and alll the owners workers lose their jobs.
When the owner loses their job they may not be able to pay their mortgage and they lose their house. They may have more than one and are renting one or two. They lose aa well. The bank takes them and says forced sell. Families renting them are kicked out and have no where to live.
The said owners laid off workers have now got no wage so they can't pay their mortgage. The bank takes their house and they have no where to live.
Depending on their wage they may be renting out a flat. The bank takes this also and sells it and the renters are forced to move out with no where to live, because there is nothing cheap enough in the covid bordered area, so they hang out in a car.
Or the only place the workers can find is some shit hole in no where to rent on the dole. So they have to move their kids to that place and their kids have to go to a new school and no longer can see their friends.
But as you say 10s of thousands of people will probably go through this, but at least we kept out an inevitable get here disease for a few months
If businesses need people to die in order to stay in existence, we're doing it the wrong way around.
Maybe the tourism industry has to go the way of the asbestos industry. Maybe not. But killing people so some small businesses can continue operating without adapting is as callous as it is stupid.
Fixed it for you.
How exactly are you killing people if they are vaxed?
Just out of interest you do know 650 odd people die from car accidents and fku a year?
How many people are YOU willing to let die because their cancer fiscreening/treatment and heart surgeries are being delayed by weeks because of the chance their might be an onslaught of covid people?
Or are they not as important as people who chose not to be vaccinated, and have underlying health conditions?
Are you aware that governments and health planners and modellers actually took into consideration things like delayed health care, and came to understand that more people would die and become disabled if covid was left to run free?
It's not a chance of an onslaught of covid. That's a bizarre statement given what's happened in so many other countries in teh world in the past 18 months. Why would NZ be any different?
And you appear to be suggesting that we have a bunch of people die from covid in addition to those road and flu deaths. Besides, we do what we can to prevent those deaths, it's not like we go, oh can't spend money on making roads safer.
Yes, but we don't destroy small businesses like butchers, hairdressers, and thousands the hospitality industry when they could be open, as they are no different from going to the pub, dentist or doctor because a car might hit a power pole
car accidents aren't infectious diseases. Really not following your argument here. We do a lot to prevent road deaths, it's not really anything to do with small businesses other than pubs etc, and we do prevention work there too.
We also ban drinking and driving, mandate people wear seatbelts, and have a speed limit.
"We also ban drinking and driving, mandate people wear seatbelts, and have a speed limit."
Not sure how banning drink drivers relates to stopping small business open, when others with even more danger can.
Again. Why are prostitutes/sex workers not named with education and medical as have to be vaxed?
Edit: Actually why are they not told they can’t operate. They are a legitimate business now.
"How exactly are you killing people if they are vaxed?"
Death rate is lower in vaxxed people, not non-existent.
Yeah I know. Looked after I posted that sorry.
It is actually not reassuringly low really, vut a shedload better than not being vaxxed.
Kind of like playing russian roullette.
100 shooter pistol.
You get 5 bullets in it if just sit around. Or 1 if you ram this needle in your arm.
Sorry. Sick analogy
Edit: Bad math.
1000 bullet gun
50 bullets sit around
5 get wounded and have to go to hospital
1/2ish bullet if you jab this needle in arm twice
Probably bad math. Bit late and just about to go to bed
You have this the wrong way round – delays for the possibility of covid is nothing like the massive demand on hospitals due to actual covid when a 'live with it' strategy was used. For example, from the British Medical Journal:
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n339
With all due respect. You can't just pluck that from the UK from 8 months ago when piss all people were vaccinated (I think they are still sitting on less than 75% first vaccunation even now) and use it as a model for how it will play out here.
are you suggesting that the modelling for NZ, once we are at 90% vax rate is wrong or can't be trusted?
Putting aside I wouldn't trust that Hendy dudes (or whatever his name is) not at all.
I was just pointing out the linmiravox posted with the quote was from Feb when piss all people in the UK were vaccinated.
I wouldn't trust that Hendy dudes, not at all.
Of course not – a professional actually competent to model outbreaks? He debunks all your reckons without breaking a sweat.
Even at a 95/95/95 assumption (95% vaxxed, 95% no infection in vaxxed, 95% no hospitalisation of infected vaxxed person), that leaves:
750k 0-12yo to spread or get the disease
250k 12+ who are unvaccinated
In addition to those million people, there are another 200k vaxxed people who do not have full protection.
So about a fifth of our population will still be vulnerable to delta. With a vulnerable group that large, what do you think the transmission numbers will be?
The vast vast vast vast vaster daylight vast ratio of (Not sure about babies) under 12s wouldn't even know they had it, let alone take long to lose it
Well, assuming even none of them actually get symptoms, there are almost half a million people they can give it to (after trading it to each other at school).
Sorry. Reply button gone
Yeah, but it is just going to happen. As I said earlier. It is a delay to the inevitable. Holding a crucifix up to stop an avalanche hitting you.
I mean a kid under 12 gets it and they inevitably will and spread it, it ain't like you can stop them play fighting, cuddling, with each other, or make them keep masks on. It spreads exponentially.
It is what it is
I would pity parents who tried to though. While also I think I would find it funny watching them try to 🙂
Just need to make sure enough people are vaccinated as possible. And I won't bring up lack of ICU prep, but will probably do on another day
No, it'll never happen. Because that was 95/95/95.
At 90/95/95, that's ~750k kids to spread it, ~430k unvaxxed >=12yo, and ~190k vaxxed but it didn't take.
The longer we put it off, the higher the vax number is and the fewer unvaxxed adults are out there – even if you think child covid won't really happen (it does, but that's another argument).
Sure, ICU beds are an issue, and general health equity, and shit housing (especially emergency housing for poor people). These are the systemic issues over decades that have sown what we reap.
But like whinging hairdressers and restauranteurs, they aren't reasons to just let covid run free as soon as possible. The way to victory here is constant delaying. Cunctator-stylez.
"You know what's more tough? Actually dying."
Currently in NZ we have had 2 die and a fairly high inoculation rate and climbing now, so please don't quote shit unvaccinated countries from months ago
"Saying everything should open up"
That isn't what I said but feel free to quote me saying it.
I said places like butchers and hairdressers. Because you know. How dumb arse it I can't get cheap steaks wrapped in paper from a dude in a butcher only he touched with plastic gloves, while then walk to a super market and fart around with a trolley 20 people have used.
And again why are sex workers not closed and forced to vax as it is apparently a ligitamate businesses from labour.
It can't be hard. They contact them through their tax returns and GST claims to vonfirm it
Well, it's not like you've presented any others. You don't like my numbers, you don't like Hendy's numbers, how many people do you think will die when we go to level 2 permanently? To keep hairdressers and independent butcheries open so you can have a nice steak?
And going all Palpatine with "it is inevitable" ignores the fact that the longer we wait, the higher our vax level. Where do you think diminishing returns come in? When half a million 12+ are unvaxxed? 750k? 250k? You reject Hendy's numbers, fair enough. Whose numbers do you figure are reasonable? As you say, from a couple thousand cases in a largely vaxxed population we've had two dead and currently 617 active cases and 26 in hospital.
How many cases will occur to make you put up with a supermarket steak (and they should have sanitising wipes for the trolley, complain if they don't)?
Are the brothels still open? How does one "close" an itinerant sex worker? If indeed those rumours are true, rather than just dodgy assumptions.
Actually, the businesses with regular accounts probably qualify for the wage relief. In lieu of providing other relief. And, like hairdressing, I suspect that the business value is in the skills and practitioner reputation rather than capital investment, so would be easier to start up again if things go tits-up.
I didn't mean child covid won't happen. I meant as they play together the vast vast vast majority will be fine while then giving it to adults who may not be.
Now parks are open. it is just going to happen.
Agree health lack of infrestucture is a decades old issue and there are two certain PM's who spent 18 years between them in charge who basically fucked it. Same with housing, but another discussion.
"But like whinging hairdressers and restauranteurs, "
They are dying and looking at having to tell their staff they are sacked. How hard is this to get?
The wage subsidy cover exactly that. Not rent. Power. GST. Insurance. ACC. Food spoilage and throwing away because the govt demands we have to wait till a certain time on a monday afternoon to say any actual shit and they have to be prepared at any time to try to open.
And even that has a limit of 600 bucks a week I think and is taxed, so the small business owner has to top that up so their staff can pay shit like their mortgage when they are normally on about 2 k a week And you have to justify it every 2 weeks
I know Labour don't get it as they think all businesses are the size of Microsoft as and all the business owners are evil, none have had to run one, but they need to to start sourcing advice from the business community rather than tight arsed, probably still living with mum stats dude from Wellington.
No they're not dying. They're looking at losing money and winding up their business.
I'm involved with a peekaboo (lol pcbu in the osh parlance) that is in the shit right now. We will probably be able to keep operating, but yeah, it's tough.
You know what's more tough? Actually dying.
Saying everything should open up and disease should walk the land so I can keep my business profitable would be almost sociopathic. But there's this affliction amongst many SMEs where their owner-operators care more about their bottom line than literally the lives of other people.
So yeah, we can still minimise the spread until as many people are vaccinated who can be. Some kids in parks might spread it around a bit more than everyone adhering to L4 standards, but full classrooms definitely will. Same with malls.
I never aid Auckland should go to level 2. It is fairly obvious it won't for a while.
I just said small businesses like butchers and hairdressers etc etc should be allowed to open.
I have tried to be diplomatic but frankly I am beginning to run out of patience, The govts qualification for who can open and can't with risk at level 3 in Auckland is fucking shit.
OK Let me put it this way as the other isn;t working. Why can't butchers be open with proper shop access?
Some possibilities come to mind:
And you never answered why sex workers don't have to be vaccinated and why they are open when butchers aren't
Edit: And please don’t say anonymity given they would have done the GST and tax things.
I'm pretty sure that sex workers shouldn't actually be operating under L3, so not sure what power a vaccine mandate would hold over the ones currently operating.
But also I'm not sure all of them operate as registered businesses with appropriate ACC levy registration (which would probably be slightly more accurate than companies or gst documentation – for the ones that do their full paperwork).
I mean, stunning idea for people in the privileged classes I know, but not all financial transactions or operations are duly reported to the government.
I was being a bit tongue and check there to be fair.
I just saw the two head up north and was wondering if/how they could claim it.
They are probably in the in the shit business group.
But then it has always slightly annoyed by they are now being treated as a proper job they never have to pay tax.
(legitamate brothel establishments excluded)
And I know I have a weird sense of humour. (Dusclaimer)
But I was wondering if they were covered now by ACC work wise if they got injured by using props in their workplace
Edit: Kind of cut hand while clients girls school skirt belt swished too much. He was ok, type thing.
ACC: “Sweet as. We will pay this for the hand therapist”
oh, they wouldn't be the only trades offering cheaper jobs for cash payments.
Almost certainly not. But then ACC would have probably written off their RSI as a pre-existing injury anyway lol
Your whole thread went back to the beginning of the pandemic and your mixed feelings on the elimination strategy. The most likely scenario for delays in non-covid treatment, is covid itself, not some strategy of bed and appointment blocking 'just in case' (in fact NZ did clear space for the worst happening but we never had to implement that plan in any major way).
We can't use NZ as an example of what happens when we open up now – because it the covid pandemic didn't happen, we're not starting with a covid-induced backlog. We'll find out more in our vaccinated future shortly.
As weka suggests, they plan for this stuff. That's the question – do you trust the planning or not?
Depends who is doing the planning. I certainly don't trust that hendy dude's who was basically just given millions bt labour with no proper best of practice on who to use.
"Your whole thread went back to the beginning of the pandemic and your mixed feelings on the elimination strategy."
This is a fair point.
I did say it was a rambling rant, but I should have been more clear in the difference status of countries situations vax verse infection wise, sorry.
I am also going to hold you to that thousands estimate of deaths
How? That's what would have happened if the business uber alles crowd had gotten their way a year and a half ago. Look at… damned near every other nation on the planet.
And the impact on other medical care is a valid, quantifiable question to ask (with reasonable data and reporting) – but it's a lot different to removing disease controls so we can preserve the cashflows of "just cutz" or "try hair".
But then you'd also be factoring in ICU occupancy during a pandemic and other outbreak-related impacts on the healthcare system, right? Right?
As for vaccination, it's a tool in the box. But it's not 100%, and some people will still die when this thing is endemic. That happens. And the predicted math of dead in that circumstances should be balanced against any dead you happen to be able to think of when you are reminded why we have these allegedly business-destroying lockdowns (although our GDP seems to suggest that a healthy population has fewer lockdowns and more economic activity than a plagueland).
But the business sector should not be a consideration in any "opening up" decision.
Now do the costs associated with hundreds of people likely not working, or working reduced hours, for months post infection.
How will this play out for the working population?
Using UK data to inform assumptions around vaccination effectiveness at stopping infections and lowering the likelihood of hospitalisation if infected, we have projected numbers of cases, hospitalisations, ICU and ‘long COVID’
for Australian workers consistent with the Doherty modelling.
In summary, our projections result in just over 100,000 COVID-19 infections in workers leading to around 10,000 hospitalisations, of which 700 are admitted to ICU. Up to (or perhaps even exceeding) 7,000 long COVID cases may develop who are fully off work, and twice as many again will still be on reduced work, 7 months later.
Vaccination changes the risk of infection and hospitalisation significantly. 42,000 COVID-19 cases are projected from the vaccinated workforce of 7.2 million workers. 64,000 COVID-19 cases are projected to come from unvaccinated workers (1.8 million workers).
https://www.finity.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/WC_COVID-19_dfinitive_Oct_2021.pdf
Andrew little said on the radio tonight that 95% of infections will not have to go to hospital and can be looked after with visits to home for food etc.
Has he not read you 10% hospitalisation modelling?
Also. You can't model long covid. They are still not sure what it is.
long covid rates are estimated to be between 10% and something like 30%. That rate should be lower in fully vaccinated people, but, we don't know yet how that will play out, and we don't know if new variants will be worse.
Two grand nieces with covid were at home in outer Sydney, had home monitoring including oxygen monitoring via the finger. Both are fine but they were already vaccinated.
Hospitalisations aside, anywhere between an estimated 25% and 80% of infected patients will be saddled with one or more long-term symptom/s. Should those numbers come to pass, good luck accessing anything resembling timely medical care in a health system that's near on it's knees today.
5%. 10%. It's still a significant number when we aren't doing lockdowns for each and every community case.
Yeah, fair point.
I think one of the things on our side. (Well apart from Auckland maybe. Sorry guys!), is the fact we have a pretty impressive amount of space to people ratio outside the big cities.
We may end up with Omega Man like cities and loads of farmers turning them into dairy farms. Moaning that Aucklanders only left them one bridge to get them to the milking sheds.
(Sorry. That was a bad joke)
Apparently rural areas in the US are getting hit hard now – not just because of maga vax hesitancy.
Sure, one can spend all one's time on the farm, but one eventually goes into towd – the supply store, the bar, the church, the parts store, the vet supply store. And they see everyone in the area who eventually comes into town. The node with many edges comes into play again.
And then the farmers die in greater number because they're further from help.
It ain't the endtimes, but fuck it's depressing.
Hairdressers have been going gangbusters around lockdown restrictions, it's not something most people can generally do themselves, & you seem to not have noticed that butcher shops are probably at 10% of the numbers they once were at but not due to covid or any restrictions. They started to become a thing of the past due to supermarkets. Other businesses have modified how they do things in a meaningful way since the 2020 lockdown – local garage ie operates 4 days a week now not 5 with no reduction in anyone's wages or the volume of service they provide. They've condensed it to less down time over the week. There are valuable things to learn from operating more effectively, when done well it also benefits retail along the line as well
Virus
Threatening our very existence
With grave and deadly persistence;
Get the vaccine today
There’s no other way –
Upon this there is widespread insistence.
Nearly; AFdeV, but something is off with the second line of your limerick. I think it needs another syllable in the second triplet (or at least a comma) eg With grave and most deadly persistance. Also There's & there is, would work better swapped between the fourth and fifth lines (or maybe On instead of Upon). Plus it's not obscene at all! Though I guess that could be implied in the threatened existence.
Who's a clever killing machine?
https://twitter.com/AbraxasSpa/status/1447850751787773956
Ghost Robotics and SWORD International have teamed up to create a rifle-toting "robot dog." Called the Special Purpose Unmanned Rifle, or SPUR, the system adds a 6.5mm Creedmoor rifle from SWORD to one of Ghost Robotics' quadrupedal unmanned ground vehicles, or Q-UGVs.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42717/robot-dogs-can-now-have-6-5mm-assault-rifles-mounted-on-their-backs
Can it shoot Pfizer darts?
Two grand nieces with covid were at home in outer Sydney, had home monitoring including oxygen monitoring via the finger. Both are fine but they were already vaccinated.
What’s the public supposed to do with this? IT expert says the vax app has medium security flaws, MoH IT dude says trust us it’s safe.
https://twitter.com/radionz/status/1448404427841228803?s=21