I hope there are going to be further assistance announcements shortly.
I'm pretty concerned about consumer debt, there are thousands of people with credit cards, car finance and the like that they are not going to be able to service. These are the people that will get absolutely buried in fees, penalties, repossessions etc in short order and credit histories destroyed.
Really hoping this will be addressed.
On a positive note a friends landlord has said that given the mortgage holiday they will cut the rent over the shutdown to just enough cover rates insurances etc. Hope all landlords are acting this way.
Banker here. Standard practise- what you would pay in interest is put onto your loan balance each month/fortnight/week. You then end up paying interest on your interest.
Great for short term cashflow. Horrible things for anything longer than 3-6 months.
We have been told to approve without any credit assessment for anyone asking for help due to the Covid situation.
It would be similar for businesses – government may front (interest free from the QE) loans for them to pay rent (for a month, 3 or 6 etc). But the businesses (those that survive) pay it back later.
For residential rents, it's more complicated.
There is income support to those who lose jobs (but not enough to cover their rent). Maybe all those who go onto income support should be able to evidence their circumstance to both
1. qualify the landlord for banker relief
2. reduce their rent payment to 50%. (with capacity to have this paid by government where even this caused hardship – outright or via interest free loan).
latest statement I saw had interest holiday as well…so no accumulated interest but banks will contact customers direct in next couyple of days with details
So we going to suspend capitalist economics from Wednesday , how about we just change the economy instead of reviving this corporate capitalist mess after this is over.
Well, no, that's not what your links say at all. Certainly no quotes to that effect.
And if I were in a conspiracist frame of mind, rather than saying it was bullshit I'd suggest that dolt45's AG has merely protected people who played a significant part in getting the fool elected.
Yup. I saw the charges against the Internet Research Agency were dropped like hot potatoes when they said they'd turn up to court. Pity. It would have been fun to hear prosecution arguments on how Jesus Masturbation memes on fb turned people to vote Trump….or Buff Bernie memes turned people off Clinton ..or, seeing as how the bulk of money spent by the IRA was spent after the election, how those ads managed to act backwards through space and time 🙂
Watched an interesting youtube commentary that leaned on info compiled by COVID Act Now that was created by a team of data scientists, engineers, and designers in partnership with epidemiologists, public health officials, and political leaders to help understand how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect their region.
Make of it what you will, but it strikes me as level headed. I
Its focus is the USA, but a bit that pertains to here is on containment strategies. Essentially (or apparently), unless there is a Wuhan type containment strategy or a "Shelter in Place" strategy – which is kind of what NZ is doing (though you might say we're tilting a more towards Wuhan type containment) , then infection rates are reckoned to be over 70%. (That's for doing nothing and basic social distancing)
The modeling covers 8 weeks Wuhan type containment and 12 weeks Shelter in Place.
Wuhan R0 assumptions: 1.3 for 1 week, 0.3 for 5 weeks, 0.2 for 1 week, 0.035 for 1 week.
Shelter in Place R0 assumptions: 1.3 for 4 weeks, 1.1 for 4 weeks, 0.8 for 4 weeks.
If the modeling is reasonable, then there's no way level 4 containment is going to be lifted after 4 weeks (though I guess it might be lifted in places and re-imposed etc)
Like I say, it’s an interesting read for those with a head for it. Recommended.
I'm guessing 12 weeks if everyone sticks to the game plan. I don't expect everyone to stick to the game plan though.
And I wish the foresight was there to shut supermarkets to the public where possible. Let local dairies use them as warehouse supply nodes.
That way, any outbreak is much more likely to be very local – eg, limited to people who had gone to the local dairy as opposed to the far wider geographical and populous area of those who had hit the supermarket.
from what i understand that if you get it mildly two – three weeks, but even after that you might still shed the virus.
if you get it hard case you might need treatment up to six weeks, with a long recovery period at home and a chance of long lasting lung damage.
So take the current situation, if we were all to stay the f at home as we supposed to, within ten to fourteen days we would know where all the sick people and carriers are.
they then need another two to twelve weeks to get back on their feet.
so twelve weeks. Goes hand in hand with what China experienced, and in saying that one of the Parliament Critters from Taiwan announced a 'second' wave coming as people are not 'social distancing'.
It matters little if you go to the supermarket, the dairy, the market or if you partner is an essential services. Its an aggressive virus, it transmits easily, and the question for all of us not IF we get it but rather When.
The best they can do is limit the numbers of people in shops according to shop size, have people cover their hair, wear a mask, gloves, and goggles if need be. do their shopping, pay at the self check out and all the shop staff does is wipe everything down with high grade cleaning products.
Our best hope is really that they will get quick tests in fast for all, and then keep testing people daily / weekly what ever until they find a. treatment, b. vaccine.
the question for all of us not IF we get it but rather When.
That had been my basic understanding – ie, about 70% of us would get hit over time, and the concern was to avoid everyone getting it in a short period of time and tanking health services and undertakers (basically).
However. (And, I mean, this just leads me to say "dunno") According to what I'm taking as a level headed take on stuff from this link (randomly landed on figures for Kansas – which seems appropriate 🙂 ), the measures NZ has in place can result in a hit rate of as low as 3%.
Germany 88 million people and a transit country. I.e. people from the rest of europe driving through, stopping gassing up, eating, shopping etc etc etc. Massive issue.
NZ. 4.5 million, close the airports, only open to repatriate tourists, and to let kiwis come back. Quarantine set up at the Airport, set up by the Army manned with Army doctors/nurses etc, plus the country on look down. And you pretty much only have 4.5 million to worry about.
We are in a remarkably good position to weather this with a low death toll, if people can stay at home. And that means no evictions, no foreclosures, etc etc etc and frankly i have yet to see the government really do something to make sure that ALL of Kiwis get to keep their house, not only the richest one.
Well, as a renter, I thought it jolly spiffing that mortgage holders got a six month holiday (or some such). Not so jolly spiffing for the mum and her 7 year old who got evicted this morning. (Normality persists for some)
And as a Sick Ben (fucked if I know the 'new' label they applied to folk like me a few years back), I appreciate the opportunity for exercise being afforded me by not receiving any extra monies before this Wednesday.
So happy to not have a problem of making space in my tiny kitchen for extra food items. And thrilled that I get to pay internet and electricity and rent just like before.
Yup. Thankfully, I get to hang on to poor "normal" while the unfortunate, home 'owning' middle classes are no doubt going to be traumatized by the relief measures heading their way 🙂
again, its businesses that have an anual turnover of 250.000 and 80million that can apply. You know. Not all mortgage owner are equal either. Me and my micro business certainly don't apply, nor the dude that has a 70.000 or less income and a wife and three kids. WE so far got fuck all.
And the really small businesses are told to go to the bank for a loan. But to be fair when the local Labour Wanabe gonna come collect 'donations and votes' for their elections, i will tell them exactly that…..go to the bank for a loan.:)
Ahh, well i can't wait to cast my vote for a third party. 🙂
But yes we are lucky, and yes, the main focus of support has been on employment directly or indirectly because that is how about 90% of the country makes its living.
So far I have yet to see you describe how you'd have done it differently.
If I understand the deal with the 'retail' banks, they are now targeting SME's with support provided they can show that they were solvent prior to December 31st.
In the meantime, I'm going to concentrate more on those who aren't likely to lose their house but are more likely to actually go homeless in an environment where there are no new jobs.
I have actually said very early on, some 6 – 8 weeks ago thatwe need a
mortgage / lease/ rent/ bill holiday for the duration of the shut down, for all. small and large businesses. By governmental degree. I have linked to several articles of countries that are doing this, Italy being one of the first todo so.
The main issue is that we need to keep people at home. We can't do that if they have bills to pay and can't keep up paying without money. Anyone who has will try to be essential services, it does not matter what hey do. And thus the disease will spread.
It is quite nice for the government to pay wage subsidies to companies large enough that hey can ride out the storm. However for businesses taht are not that big, don't have the big money behind them and need actual cashflow for monthly bills and overheads it means nothing. It would have been easier for the government to allow small businesses to let go of its staff early on and offer unemployement for the workers, coupled with heating assistance, food assistance, accom benefit to make up to the 80% of min wage as it does via the wage subsidy. As we will hire our staff back once we can work. As it is, my staff will get some money for twelve weeks and then she will go on the unemployment benefit as there are chances that i will have to default on lease and overhead payments.
Personally i am with bill, the easiest way wold have been to instruct IRD to send every adult of NZ a check of say 800 – 1000 per week. This would be enough in most cases to at least cover rent/food/utilites. No applying simply send out the check. The IRD should be set up for it as they already do that for tax refunds.
Next they could have cancelled the end of year/GST returns until say August. Non of that we will wave late payment fees. AS if any of us have the mind to do a stock take and fill out forms, specially when we are in lock down. And again, non of us make money so we don't have money even with the higher thresholds. So cancel provisional tax completly and let businesses keep that money.
Next they could have offered Goverment loans – this could have been done via WINZ – call them 'hardship' loans to businesses like mine. I don't mind taking out a loan, but i mind taking out a loan at standard interest rate because the government is not negotiating with the bank for us and thus even a small loan will be very expensive and hard if not impossible to repay. So a government loan with no repayments for say 4 – 6 month (depending on how long we may not be able to work) and then set the repayment rates according to business turn over.
So far we have paid subsidies to some of the biggest companies in nz, many whom are very actively avoiding paying taxes in the first place. now we are offering companies a mortgage holiday – but only if they are over 250.000 anual turn over or more. Instead we should have made it illegal for any evictions for the next 5 month.
We should have made it illegal for companies to cut of utilities.
My partner is the only income we now have – and he is a standard income waged worker, and he is essential service – so will be out and about fixing computers in banks and super market check outs and the likes and if he falls ill or worse dies, i will be homeless. Because i will have no way to generate an income. And there are many like me. a few tens of thousands. But its ok. I am just whinging.
We seem to have no issue asking for solidarity from those that have everything to lose yet we ask nothing from those that hoard money, houses, boats and the likes.
We woke up 2 x lump sum wage subsidy in our account this morning, for a couple who run a tourist retail gallery. One of our artists got a payment in his account too.
Apply, you'll get it.
If you've got a recent lease on an ADLS form there's a clause that covers this situation as a result of the Christchurch earthquake debacle. Look up 27.5 and 27.6, No Access in Emergency. Essentially rent ceases to be payable if a competent authority deems you cannot occupy the premises. If the lease is older than 2012 this may not apply and I gather this is what government is moving on in coming days.
In an earthquake or other damage scenarios the landlord would be able to claim on their insurance to recover the rent, but in the current situation the will most likely be an exclusion for pandemics. Hence Robertson said the other day that something was coming up regarding commercial leases, not doing something is going to get messy, and it'll be all the way up the chain to the big corporate retailers and others that have to close.
I'm eagerly awaiting details of the mortgage / loan repayment holiday too, that will be handy for cashflow, even if it's just kicking the can down the road.
Evidently some of the larger landlords around Queenstown are offering their tenants rent holidays, so they may have knowledge that they will get it back from somewhere.
we have applied, we have so far received nothing. mind winz will be over run with applications.
i am eagerly awaiting anything the government has to offer. And i know quite a few people here in Rotorua that are also worried witless.
Mostly i am worried for my partner. He will be out there working and we are in a two bedroom unit and its gonna be hell to quarantine either of us if we have/get the flu.
i am however over with the bail outs for the very rich. At the very least there should be some strings attached to the aid the receive, like paying taxes.
My tenants (while I was making sure that they weren’t going to have issues) said that their mate, a self-employed tradie, just got $12k in his bank account, meant to help cover 12 weeks of corona revenue drop (presumably in the past). I didn’t go into it further than that.
Some question why Italy was caught off guard when the virus outbreak was revealed on Feb. 21.
Remuzzi says he is now hearing information about it from general practitioners. "They remember having seen very strange pneumonia, very severe, particularly in old people in December and even November," he says. "This means that the virus was circulating, at least in [the northern region of] Lombardy and before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China."
He says it was impossible to combat something you didn't know existed.
a lot of my friends in the US also complained about the weirdest flu ever, hard hacking cough, no energy, fever every now and then, feeling weak and tired etc – which if you don't get the oxygen you need is what you would be feeling like. The only difference between the US and Italy, In Italy if you are ill you go to the doctor, in the US you take a pill.
It wouldn’t surprise me that there are bugs circulating. When they go retrospectively go through the biopsies and autopsy data at a genetic level then the origin will probably become pretty apparent.
However the basic issue is that history shows that the over-inflated human population has to be pretty damn careful of animal contacts. There has been a pretty clear species jump showing in origin morphology of all of the major pandemics of the last 2000 years where we have some reasonable histories. Often this is morphed into the human reservoir issue where a population get immune to a disease but acts as a carrier to another population.
It isn’t like we have the other major human reservoirs to uncap.
What we have left are animal population reservoirs and the unproven (but possible) ancient disease reservoirs (ie ones that show up in ice, but are not evident in any current population).
What I’m arguing is the we really need start focusing more closely at the sources of outbreaks. From HIV to Ebola to recent corona viruses we’re now routinely seeing cross-species infections.
how many of violent sadistic state house tenants are there in NZ? i did not read any further. Also i don’t like the picture of the dog. Its a good doggo and his images is used to show a violent sadistic state house tenant?
how many of violent sadistic state house tenants are there in NZ?
More than a few if my Parents' area is anything to go by. Some really violent, anti-social, out-of-control people moving in (over last 4 or 5 years) to what was always a wonderful, peaceful, socially-mixed & community-minded street. Corollary of the move towards almost exclusively allocating to the severely problematic end of the Underclass.
Pompous affluent Luvvies, of course, get to ostentatiously virtue-signal & paternalistically romanticise in order to enhance their own social prestige & assuage their own guilt without ever doing one friggin iota of the suffering. It's a great little con trick.
An interesting blend of covert sadism, sheer cowardice & rank hypocrisy parading as some sort of moral righteousness.
Long-term residents – the socially-minded poor & middle-class (the vast majority Labour & Green supporters, incidentally) – get to be the unofficial scapegoats who are apparently expected to do all the penance on the Luvvies behalf.
Also i don’t like the picture of the dog. Its a good doggo and his images is used to show a violent sadistic state house tenant?
Title of Post: Thrown to the Wolves
Illustrated by: A picture of an angry Wolf
Try not to be quite so silly. (or do I mean desperate ?)
Oh fuck … so it's still going on. I read your post all the way through and could visualise it all. Unacceptable at every turn.
My only useful advice is to start recording what it going on using a time stamped security camera; they’re not expensive these days. You never know when hard evidence will prove useful.
One way or another … I'll resolve this predicament. And then I might start telling some Home Truths to a few people with highly romanticised (& highly paternalistic) ideas about the Underclass.
Absolutely; our own similar experience pretty smartly slapped the delusions from us too.
This 'no eviction' policy is why landlords are so unhappy about the end of the 90 day 'no cause' termination notice. In this country the Police and Courts are of little assistance in dealing with anti-social tenants and effectively dump the problem onto the landlord.
Here in Australia we had a problem neighbour and when we talked to the property manager about it, we were promptly re-directed to the Police who very efficiently handled it. They made it clear to us that this sort of shite behaviour is either 'mad or bad'. What they told us to do was put a security camera pointing into the common area and if the behaviour changed then it meant the person had understanding that what they were doing was bad, and should then be held accountable and have consequences.
It turned out our case was 'bad', and eventually the consequence was a Court ordered eviction.
NZ has a long standing problem with violence, and until we can have an honest conversation around it's root causes, leaving out the self-serving yelling about racism and colonisation, we're pretty much stuck with it. There are many complex threads that feed into it, but the hard truth the left is very resistant to, is that you cannot help someone who will not take responsibility for themselves.
Cheers, Red. Thanks very much for your support on this over the last year or so.
I'm familiar with your problem tenants & the serious trouble they've caused (been following your vigorous on-going debate with McFlock on the matter almost religously over recent weeks).
I'll have quite a bit more to say about my Parents' situation & the tacit No Eviction policy on my blog over the next few Months (but don't want to labour the point too much here … when people start going on about their private problems relentlessly on social media then it can get pretty tedious pretty quickly for everyone else. So probably just 3 or 4 posts on Sub-Zero outlining the problem, expressing my anger & frustration (hopefully without descending into a full-scale rant) & then exploring the broader political implications in a more sober way.
I was told by my daughter today her landlord in Edinburgh has had his curling rink commandeered for use as a temporary morgue….think that may be a pretty good incentive for us to do a better job of handling this than has been the case overseas
Well…if that info I read around the impact of a successful "Shelter in Place" strategy is correct…
Am I the only one who has (perhaps mistakenly) laboured under the assumption that "flattening the curve" was only about spreading out the same number of infections over time?
I've been doing a bit of scattered reading the past few hours over a number of publications and noticing that the possible actual effects of isolation strategies aren't being explicitly stated – that the notion of "everyone" inevitably contracting the virus is the kinda accepted "truth" in more or less everything I'm reading. The containment info is sometimes in there (implied), but basically skipped over.
Assuming the "hit rate" can be brought down to single percentage numbers with good containment strategies in place, then…why isn't that message being pushed hard and repeatedly?
The reason why is because there are zero treatments apart from keeping severe cases alive through the worst. That requires ventilators to help people breathe and near constant monitoring to save them if they're going under.
Flattening the curve (which you clearly grasped) is about making sure that there are ventilators and the treatments available for the severe cases. Thereby reducing the death rate.
Otherwise there is the secondary option of a hopefully brief visit to the curling rink.
Roll on a vaccine of an effective anti-viral. Because we really can't afford the (calculates) the potential 200-300k at about a 5% fatality rate who could die in NZ if our health system gets swamped. Which appears to be about the 'natural' cull rate of covid-19 in an unsuspecting populace given the usual 4-5 waves before herd immunity is acheived.
We lost 9k with a much simpler and easy to survive disease in 1918/19 effectively without any kind of useful care. That was between ~0.7% (european) and ~15% (maori) death rates of the populations with what was for the time close to the best available care. 45% deaths in Samoa because the dimwitted NZ occupation forces were too pig-ignorant to institute decent quarantines.
FFS: Doesn't anyone here ever read history? Or are they too interested in wanking about their own problems?
Flattening the curve (which you clearly grasped) is about making sure that there are ventilators and the treatments available for the severe cases. Thereby reducing the death rate.
No.
Different strategies flatten the curve differently. Shelter in Place can mean a total infection rate in the single digits. Social Distancing on the other hand, means widespread infection (up to herd immunity levels) spread over a longer time span.
from what i understand that if you get it mildly two – three weeks, but even after that you might still shed the virus
For 37 days after infection to get close to 100% clear (ie something like a 99.5% certainty of clearance) of sheding according to the research I've been reading. Which is why they're using 14 days quarantine to prove clearance andafter you're 'cleared'.
That is why this virus is way way worse than the 1918/19 influenza pandemic. It has a much long tail and a much more likely later waves. Which is why 4 weeks is the minimum.
just read somehwere today that it can 'live' in feces for up to five weeks.
Yep, i am having no issues with the 4 weeks of isolation. Its gonna bankrupt a lot of us smaller ones but at least we hopefully get to walk out of it alive.
I would expect waves for about 2 years…until either we have decent testing – and fast testing, and a vaccine or people build up some immunity.
However what is going to be a killer if it lasts that long is the damage to the lung by the virus, specially if one can catch it more then once. essentially then it is a recurring illness that will lead to death in a very short time. And that is my guess why everyone on this planet is currently tanking their economy. It is re-occuring and it is a killer.
There has been a lot of aborted research on the various corona viruses over the last decade or two. SARS and MERS – but they've burnt themselves out too fast to finish the research. This one SARS-CoV-2 aka covid-19 looks like it will last long enough to get multiple disruption techniques finished.
Personally I not really interested in 30k base pair biological program defeating us this time. Because they're only going to get worse and we need to prevent the next outbreak.
Be nice to actually identify the human vector from the animal kingdom to this as well. A pogrom against whoever is rubbing up with the animal kingdom the wrong way and allowing these viruses to transfer so often is starting to look way more interesting than living with them.
I suspect that the Chinese government will have a good look at that.
But in NZ, we should look at our pig-farming and chicken-farming practices. And remove antibiotics from the hands of all farmers – vet only and they should be rationed.
Animal farming through much of the US and EU needs a severe curtailment.
Essentially we need to go back to ethical animal husbandry and ethical farming.
I hope for a decent test that is fast and reliable. Something like a blood sugar test, that can be done at home with a simle prick, daily if need be. Shows negative go to work, show positive of into self isolation you go for the next 12 weeks until at least two consecutive tests come back negative. What China did.
Then a treatment.
then a vaccines. Her is hoping that it will happen.
From what I understand, there appears to be too wide a range from known infection to testable results and to symptoms. The symptoms of whatever level show from 1 day to 12 days with the median at about 5 days.
Testing from what I have seen discussed is from 1 day to about 7-8 days for virus RNA or for antibodies. Which is what they’re testing for. The range of that means that testing simply is not that useful. Probably that is because most of the current testing is currently mostly based on swabs looking for RNA from the lungs.
If you want grrrr.. for covid-19 read the section “Target: new infections”
The final step in the virus’ life cycle is infecting a new cell. Typically, what is taught here is a “lie of simplification,” which goes: the virus latches on to a protein on the cell’s surface, then uses that protein to gain entry into the cell. This is true as far as it goes, but for most viruses, things are considerably more complicated. Coronaviruses definitely fall into the “more complicated” category in this regard.
SARS-CoV-2 does latch on to a protein on the surface of cells in the respiratory tract; we’ve already confirmed that it’s the same protein as the one used by the original SARS-CoV. But that doesn’t immediately result in viral contents entering the cell. Instead, the complex of virus and receptors stays on the outside of the cell membrane. That membrane, however, gets pulled into the cell and “pinched off” from the cell’s surface, creating a sac within the cell that now contains “outside” material.
Once this occurs, the virus is technically inside the cell, but it’s still on the wrong side of a membrane from everything it needs to reproduce.
The cell takes over this compartment, lowering its pH and adding enzymes to break down its contents. Corona and other viruses actually take advantage of these changes to enable their infection. In the case of coronavirus, a protease made by the host cell cuts the viral spike protein. Once cut, the spike protein triggers a merger between the membrane in the virus’ coat and the membrane of the compartment it is trapped in. This finally places the virus’ genome inside the cell, where it can proceed with the infection.
That is complex, slow, and much of it is unlikely to trigger fast anti-bodies in the bloodstream (the virus targets the longs) or enough of an immediate expansion of viral RNA in the lungs immediately after infection. They are pretty much testing if someone is currently infectious rather than if they are infected.
A better way of testing would be useful because currently a single point in time for a test or at a single location is likely to miss the early infection.
The 2020 Democratic primary looks more and more like a zombie election where dead ideas (and comatose people) are taking over. Compare Sanders being pilloried for some obvious and non-controversial comments on the Cuban heakth system with this – Cuban medical team arrives in Milan.
The state of the national economy doesn't mean anything when (as happened to me many years ago) you come to realise that your breathing is not giving you enough oxygen, and if you don't get help in the next few breaths you will not have the strength to call out for assistance, and you will die soon thereafter.
I have sat by a relative as they died of lung cancer, going from chatty to dead in a seriously short period of time as they pass that same threshold of getting enough oxygen to sustain life, to not getting enough.
Sexton, Walsh, Kelly, Blanktein and Trump have no clue what they are talking about when they balance life against money.
In extremis, triage based on medical condition and prognosis, I can understand. Triage based on a banker's and a politician's fiscal survival instinct I do not agree with.
If you want to speculate how Siomun and the Natz would have handled the Covid-19 pandemic – just look at how well Trump, Johnson and Morrison are doing – all right wing fwts.
I thought it was very hopeful from a NZ perspective. Like I'm saying in other comments, I'm beginning to think I completely misunderstood the possible effect of a good containment strategy – ie, it's not about spreading an inevitable 'x' number of infections over a longer time period, but about drastically reducing the overall number of infections.
slow down the cases of newly infection by denying the virus new bodies, and at the same time managing the cases arriving at the hospital. Not all people who have the virus will need the hospital. Many can simply stay at home and get better. Well if they can self quarantine at home without infecting the other people living at the house – something that China had an issue with initially.
While I thought we moved too soon – no real evidence of local spread. It's not clearly wrong, given
1. we lacked the testing capacity for such reassurance (the price we pay for not being better prepared)
2. the higher rates of returning Kiwis coming back infected and spreading to their self isolation others (each new one increased the risk of subsequent community spread).
Aided by airlines no longer operating and the arrival of testing kits from Singapore, we will come out of this month (includes the scheduled 2 weeks school holidays) better placed.
1. hopefully reassurance of no (or successfully suppressed) community spread (via community sample testing)
2. more secure arrangements for returning Kiwis – individual placement in the city they arrive at (apartments within hotels or home stays rented by government?) in place
3. the future risk is then Kiwis in Oz losing jobs and being denied income support (so if necessary we QE the dole to them and exploit the subsequent lower Kiwi dollar to the Oz one in trade)
4. air b n b homes no longer being used for tourists ease our housing supply issues
5. at some point we will have to determine on resumption of tourism – there will be antibody testing and vaccination (both depending on whether new strains emerge that can reinfect people).
What will inform us, is how China deals with multiple point reinfection through returning students (back from North America and Europe).
The only known at this point is that QEing our way our of a pandemic is going to scare the capitalist centres no end – how will they react, and when (and will we see it coming).
PDF must have started to lose some contracts because after week of ranting about how slow we were to react he's now flip-flopped and is saying we should weigh up the costs and benefits of our actions.
Nothing like losing your job to hone one’ s analysis of the decisions under which you lost that job, eh Dave.
Question. As stores are starting to no longer accept cash and the country is about to go in lockdown, what am I supposed to do if I've recently lost my wallet and can't find my birth certificate 😭 in the meantime while I wait for replacement id which is going to take absolutely forever due to this shut down,but I need id so my useless bank can issue me a card. I'm waiting on a new debit card but I'll need id to pin that card.
On a side note there are many people I know who are on welfare who have never had photo id because for some it's too expensive, for others seems too complicated etc what are old people and beneficiaries who rely on cash going to do if more stores demand pay wave or card only. This could be really, really, really bad for some people.
Not under current laws in reality – you have to look at the differences between legal tender and refusing payment. See the arguments here (related to the 2006 change in currency).
The answer has greater theoretical than practical relevance.
While the seller (‘creditor‘ at this point) is not required to
accept the payment, the fact that a valid tender has been
made means that in refusing to accept it, the seller is barred
from recovering the debt in court. Therefore, in practical
terms, the creditor has little choice but to accept the legal
tender payment.
Of course if you’re paying in cash, usually the amounts are too small to go an argue this in court (basically lawyers are way more expensive).
On the other hand, the practical limitations of legal tender
should be acknowledged. It is always subject to the intention
of the parties, who may contract to receive payment in other
than legal tender. For larger transactions, the courts would be
likely to presume that the parties did not contemplate legal
tender. And where disputes arise over payment, members of
the public are likely to rely on pragmatic solutions, while the
formal rules underlying legal tender would rarely have any
bearing on the outcome.
While I haven’t bothered to look at your discussion or why this query was raised, but generally not accepting legal tender as payment leaves the refuser in an invidious position if there is a substantial stake involved. Used wisely, it would probably bolster any case where legal tender was proffered and refused because it would speak directly to the motivations of the refuser.
Not under current laws in reality – you have to look at the differences between legal tender and refusing payment. See the arguments here (related to the 2006 change in currency).
The answer has greater theoretical than practical relevance.
While the seller (‘creditor‘ at this point) is not required to
accept the payment, the fact that a valid tender has been
made means that in refusing to accept it, the seller is barred
from recovering the debt in court. Therefore, in practical
terms, the creditor has little choice but to accept the legal
tender payment.
Of course if you’re paying in cash, usually the amounts are too small to go an argue this in court (basically lawyers are way more expensive).
On the other hand, the practical limitations of legal tender
should be acknowledged. It is always subject to the intention
of the parties, who may contract to receive payment in other
than legal tender. For larger transactions, the courts would be
likely to presume that the parties did not contemplate legal
tender. And where disputes arise over payment, members of
the public are likely to rely on pragmatic solutions, while the
formal rules underlying legal tender would rarely have any
bearing on the outcome.
While I haven’t bothered to look at your discussion or why this query was raised. Generally not accepting legal tender as payment leaves the refuser in an invidious position if there is a substantial stake involved. Used wisely, it would probably bolster any case where legal tender was proffered and refused because it would speak directly to the motivations of the refuser. For instance and this has happened in cases of racial or sexual discrimination.
The old card cancelled after losing the wallet I presume.
Get what ID you can. Your IRD number would be good – better with a print out of your last years income off their site. That and historic statements of the account linked to the old card. Even a facebook page with your mug on it would help.
You have a better chance now than normally of them being helpful.
Thank you this is a good idea. I'll print out my old transactions. I'll also go in with my online banking logged in, proof of my address com services card a library card and ird
I was telling a UK pal about Aderns "keep faithful" line & my pal said Boris used the same term, I figured our Govts are talking and getting advice from eachother but that did make me chuckle. Also I figure places like Warehouse and retail are closing just because they're places where the public congregate, they said the same thing about playgrounds, so trade centres and mechanics (on skeleton crews) are ok, for now. I do hope this works.
I'm in an OK situation, the company I work for allowed me to take annual leave (I had a lot owing) for the lockdown, so I'm taking some good chill out time. I had the option of working from home, but wasn't really keen, thought it would be a big hassle.
We will get through this. I'm just worried about what is going to happen afterwards, and what services that Finance Minister Paul Goldsmith will cut next year if National wins the election.
After a hiatus of over four months Selwyn Manning and I finally got it together to re-start the “A View from Afar” podcast series. We shall see how we go but aim to do 2 episodes per month if possible. … Continue reading → ...
In 2008, the UK Parliament passed the Climate Change Act 2008. The law established a system of targets, budgets, and plans, with inbuilt accountability mechanisms; the aim was to break the cycle of empty promises and replace it with actual progress towards emissions reduction. The law was passed with near-universal ...
Buzz from the Beehive Local Water Done Well – let’s be blunt – is a silly name, but the first big initiative to put it into practice has gone done well. This success is reflected in the headline on an RNZ report:District mayors welcome Auckland’s new water deal with ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate ConnectionsA farmworker cleans the solar panels of a solar water pump in the village of Jagadhri, Haryana Country, India. (Photo credit: Prashanth Vishwanathan/ IWMI) Decisions made in India over the next few years will play a key role in global ...
Lindsay Mitchell writes – The Children’s Minister, Karen Chhour, intends to repeal Section 7AA from the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989 because it creates conflict between claimed Crown Treaty obligations and the child’s best interests. In her words, “Oranga Tamariki’s governing principles and its act should be colour ...
Geoffrey Miller writes – The gloves are off. That might seem to be the undertone of surprisingly tough talk from New Zealand’s foreign and trade ministers. Winston Peters, the foreign minister, may be facing legal action after making allegations about former Australian foreign minister Bob Carr on Radio New Zealand. ...
Brian Easton writes – This is about the time that the Treasury will be locking up its economic forecasts to be published in the 2024 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) on budget day, 30 May. I am not privy to what they will be (I will report on them ...
TL;DR:Winston Peters is reported to have won a budget increase for MFAT. David Seymour wanted his Ministry of Regulation to be three times bigger than the Productivity Commission. Simeon Brown is appointing a Crown Monitor to Watercare to protect the Claytons Crown Guarantee he had to give ratings agencies ...
The gloves are off. That might seem to be the undertone of surprisingly tough talk from New Zealand’s foreign and trade ministers. Winston Peters, the foreign minister, may be facing legal action after making allegations about former Australian foreign minister Bob Carr on Radio New Zealand. Carr had made highly ...
I could be a florist'Round the corner from Rye LaneI'll be giving daisies to craziesBut, baby, I'll wrap you up real safe Oh, I can give you flowers At the end of every dayFor the center of your table, a rainbowIn case you have people 'round to stay Depending on ...
TL;DR: The six key events to watch in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy in the week to May 12 include:PM Christopher Luxon is scheduled to hold a post-Cabinet news conference at 4 pm today. Finance Minister Nicola Willis will give a pre-budget speech on Thursday.Parliament sits from Question Time at 2pm on ...
The price of the foreign affairs “reset” is now becoming apparent, with Defence set to get a funding boost in the Budget. Finance Minister Nicola Willis has confirmed that it will be one of the few votes, apart from Health and Education and possibly Police, which will get an increase ...
A listing of 26 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, April 28, 2024 thru Sat, May 4, 2024. Story of the week "It’s straight out of Big Tobacco’s playbook. In fact, research by John Cook and his colleagues ...
Yesterday I received come lovely feedback following my Star Wars themed newsletter. A few people mentioned they’d enjoyed reading the personal part at the beginning.I often begin newsletters with some memories, or general thoughts, before commencing the main topic. This hopefully sets the mood and provides some context in which ...
April 30 was going to be the day we’d be calling Mum from London to wish her a happy birthday. Then it became the day we would be going to St. Paul's at Evensong to remember her. The aim of the cathedral builders was to find a way to make their ...
Rob MacCulloch writes – Can’t remember the last book by a Kiwi author you read? Think the NZ government should spend less on the arts in favor of helping the homeless? If so, as far as Newsroom is concerned, you probably deserve to be called a cultural ignoramus ...
Eric Crampton writes – Grudges are bad. Better to move on. But it can be fun to keep a couple of really trivial ones, so you’re not tempted to have other ones. For example, because of the rootkit fiasco of 2005, no Sony products in our household. ...
A new report warns an estimated third of the adult population have unmet need for health care.Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāHere’s the six key things I learned about Aotaroa’s political economy this week around housing, climate and poverty:Politics - Three opinion polls confirmed support for PM Christopher Luxon ...
Today is May the fourth. Which was just a regular day when my mother took me to see the newly released Star Wars at the Odeon in Rotorua. The queue was right around the corner. Some years later this day became known as Star Wars Day, the date being a ...
Buzz from the Beehive Much more media attention is being paid to something Winston Peters said about former Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr than to a speech he delivered to the New Zealand China Council. One word is missing from the speech: AUKUS. But AUKUS loomed large in his considerations ...
Is the economy in another long stagnation? If so, why?This is about the time that the Treasury will be locking up its economic forecasts to be published in the 2024 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) on budget day, 30 May. I am not privy to what they will be ...
The annual list of who's been bribing our politicians is out, and journalists will no doubt be poring over it to find the juiciest and dirtiest bribes. The government's fast-track invite list is likely to be a particular focus, and we already know of one company on the list which ...
In the weeks after the October 7 Hamas attacks on Southern Israel I wrote about the possible 2nd, 3rd and even 4th order effects of the conflict. These included new fronts being opened in the West Bank (with Hamas), Golan … Continue reading → ...
Peter Dunne writes – It is one of the oldest truisms that there is never a good time for MPs to get a pay rise. This week’s announcement of pay raises of around 2.8% backdated to last October could hardly have come at a worse time, with the ...
David Farrar writes – Newshub reports: Newshub can reveal a fresh allegation of intimidation against Green MP Julie-Anne Genter. Genter is subject to a disciplinary process for aggressively waving a book in the face of National Minister Matt Doocey in the House – but it’s not the first time ...
The Treasury has published a paper today on the global productivity slowdown and how it is playing out in New Zealand: The productivity slowdown: implications for the Treasury’s forecasts and projections. The Treasury Paper examines recent trends in productivity and the potential drivers of the slowdown. Productivity for the whole economy ...
Winston Peters’ comments about former Australian foreign minister look set to be an ongoing headache for both him and Luxon. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for subscribers features co-hosts and , along with regular guests on Gaza and ...
These puppet strings don't pull themselvesYou're thinking thoughts from someone elseHow much time do you think you have?Are you prepared for what comes next?The debating chamber can be a trying place for an opposition MP. What with the person in charge, the speaker, typically being an MP from the governing ...
The land around Lyme Regis, where Meryl Streep once stood, in a hood, on the Cobb, is falling into the sea.MerylThe land around Lyme Regis, around the Cobb that made it rich, has always been falling slowly but surely into the sea. Read more ...
Buzz from the Beehive Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters was bound to win headlines when he set out his thinking about AUKUS in his speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. The headlines became bigger when – during an interview on RNZ’s Morning Report today – he criticised ...
The Post reports on how the government is refusing to release its advice on its corrupt Muldoonist fast-track law, instead using the "soon to be publicly available" refusal ground to hide it until after select committee submissions on the bill have closed. Fast-track Minister Chris Bishop's excuse? “It's not ...
As pressure on it grows, the livestock industry’s approach to the transition to Net Zero is increasingly being compared to that of fossil fuel interests. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / Getty ImagesTL;DR: Here’s the top five news items of note in climate news for Aotearoa-NZ this week, and a discussion above ...
The New Zealand Herald reports – Stats NZ has offered a voluntary redundancy scheme to all of its workers as a way to give staff some control over their “future” amidst widespread job losses in the public sector. In an update to staff this morning, seen by the Herald, Statistics New Zealand ...
On Werewolf/Scoop, I usually do two long form political columns a week. From now on, there will be an extra column each week about music and movies. But first, some late-breaking political events:The rise in unemployment numbers for the March quarter was bigger than expected – and especially sharp ...
David Farrar writes – The Herald reports: TVNZ says it is dealing with about 50 formal complaints over its coverage of the latest 1News-Verian political poll, with some viewers – as well as the Prime Minister and a former senior Labour MP – critical of the tone of the 6pm report. ...
Muriel Newman writes – When Meridian Energy was seeking resource consents for a West Coast hydro dam proposal in 2010, local Maori “strenuously” objected, claiming their mana was inextricably linked to ‘their’ river and could be damaged. After receiving a financial payment from the company, however, the Ngai Tahu ...
Alwyn Poole writes – “An SEP,’ he said, ‘is something that we can’t see, or don’t see, or our brain doesn’t let us see, because we think that it’s somebody else’s problem. That’s what SEP means. Somebody Else’s Problem. The brain just edits it out, it’s like a ...
Our trust in our political institutions is fast eroding, according to a Maxim Institute discussion paper, Shaky Foundations: Why our democracy needs trust. The paper – released today – raises concerns about declining trust in New Zealand’s political institutions and democratic processes, and the role that the overuse of Parliamentary urgency ...
This article was prepared for publication yesterday. More ministerial announcements have been posted on the government’s official website since it was written. We will report on these later today …. Buzz from the BeehiveThere we were, thinking the environment is in trouble, when along came Jones. Shane Jones. ...
New Zealand now has the fourth most depressed construction sector in the world behind China, Qatar and Hong Kong. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy at 8:46am on Thursday, May 2:The Lead: ...
Hi,I am just going to state something very obvious: American police are fucking crazy.That was a photo gracing the New York Times this morning, showing New York City police “entering Columbia University last night after receiving a request from the school.”Apparently in America, protesting the deaths of tens of thousands ...
Winston Peters’ much anticipated foreign policy speech last night was a work of two halves. Much of it was a standard “boilerplate” Foreign Ministry overview of the state of the world. There was some hardening up of rhetoric with talk of “benign” becoming “malign” and old truths giving way to ...
Graham Adams assesses the fallout of the Cass Review — The press release last Thursday from the UN Special Rapporteur on violence against women and girls didn’t make the mainstream news in New Zealand but it really should have. The startling title of Reem Alsalem’s statement — “Implementation of ‘Cass ...
This open-for-business, under-new-management cliché-pockmarked government of Christopher Luxon is not the thing of beauty he imagines it to be. It is not the powerful expression of the will of the people that he asserts it to be. It is not a soaring eagle, it is a malodorous vulture. This newest poll should make ...
The latest labour market statistics, showing a rise in unemployment. There are now 134,000 unemployed - 14,000 more than when the National government took office. Which is I guess what happens when the Reserve Bank causes a recession in an effort to Keep Wages Low. The previous government saw a ...
Three opinion polls have been released in the last two days, all showing that the new government is failing to hold their popular support. The usual honeymoon experienced during the first year of a first term government is entirely absent. The political mood is still gloomy and discontented, mainly due ...
National's Finance Minister once met a poor person.A scornful interview with National's finance guru who knows next to nothing about economics or people.There might have been something a bit familiar if that was the headline I’d gone with today. It would of course have been in tribute to the article ...
Rob MacCulloch writes – Throughout the pandemic, the new Vice-Chancellor-of-Otago-University-on-$629,000 per annum-Can-you-believe-it-and-Former-Finance-Minister Grant Robertson repeated the mantra over and over that he saved “lives and livelihoods”.As we update how this claim is faring over the course of time, the facts are increasingly speaking differently. NZ ...
Chris Trotter writes – IT’S A COMMONPLACE of political speeches, especially those delivered in acknowledgement of electoral victory: “We’ll govern for all New Zealanders.” On the face of it, the pledge is a strange one. Why would any political leader govern in ways that advantaged the huge ...
Bryce Edwards writes – The list of former National Party Ministers being given plum and important roles got longer this week with the appointment of former Deputy Prime Minister Paula Bennett as the chair of Pharmac. The Christopher Luxon-led Government has now made key appointments to Bill ...
TL;DR: These are the six things that stood out to me in news and commentary on Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy at 10:06am on Wednesday, May 1:The Lead: Business confidence fell across the board in April, falling in some areas to levels last seen during the lockdowns because of a collapse in ...
Over the past 36 hours, Christopher Luxon has been dong his best to portray the centre-right’s plummeting poll numbers as a mark of virtue. Allegedly, the negative verdicts are the result of hard economic times, and of a government bravely set out on a perilous rescue mission from which not ...
Auckland Transport have started rolling out new HOP card readers around the network and over the next three months, all of them on buses, at train stations and ferry wharves will be replaced. The change itself is not that remarkable, with the new readers looking similar to what is already ...
Completed reads for April: The Difference Engine, by William Gibson and Bruce Sterling Carnival of Saints, by George Herman The Snow Spider, by Jenny Nimmo Emlyn’s Moon, by Jenny Nimmo The Chestnut Soldier, by Jenny Nimmo Death Comes As the End, by Agatha Christie Lord of the Flies, by ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
Have a story to share about St Paul’s, but today just picturesPopular novels written at this desk by a young man who managed to bootstrap himself out of father’s imprisonment and his own young life in a workhouse Read more ...
The list of former National Party Ministers being given plum and important roles got longer this week with the appointment of former Deputy Prime Minister Paula Bennett as the chair of Pharmac. The Christopher Luxon-led Government has now made key appointments to Bill English, Simon Bridges, Steven Joyce, Roger Sowry, ...
Newsroom has a story today about National's (fortunately failed) effort to disestablish the newly-created Inspector-General of Defence. The creation of this agency was the key recommendation of the Inquiry into Operation Burnham, and a vital means of restoring credibility and social licence to an agency which had been caught lying ...
Holding On To The Present:The moment a political movement arises that attacks the whole idea of social progress, and announces its intention to wind back the hands of History’s clock, then democracy, along with its unwritten rules, is in mortal danger.IT’S A COMMONPLACE of political speeches, especially those delivered in ...
Stuck In The Middle With You:As Christopher Luxon feels the hot breath of Act’s and NZ First’s extremists on the back of his neck and, as he reckons with the damage their policies are already inflicting upon a country he’s described as “fragile”, is there not some merit in reaching out ...
The unpopular coalition government is currently rushing to repeal section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act. The clause is Oranga Tamariki's Treaty clause, and was inserted after its systematic stealing of Māori children became a public scandal and resulted in physical resistance to further abductions. The clause created clear obligations ...
Buzz from the Beehive The government’s official website – which Point of Order monitors daily – not for the first time has nothing much to say today about political happenings that are grabbing media headlines. It makes no mention of the latest 1News-Verian poll, for example. This shows National down ...
It Takes A Train To Cry:Surely, there is nothing lonelier in all this world than the long wail of a distant steam locomotive on a cold Winter’s night.AS A CHILD, I would lie awake in my grandfather’s house and listen to the traffic. The big wooden house was only a ...
Packing A Punch: The election of the present government, including in its ranks politicians dedicated to reasserting the rights of the legislature in shaping and determining the future of Māori and Pakeha in New Zealand, should have alerted the judiciary – including its anomalous appendage, the Waitangi Tribunal – that its ...
Dead Woman Walking: New Zealand’s media industry had been moving steadily towards disaster for all the years Melissa Lee had been National’s media and communications policy spokesperson, and yet, when the crisis finally broke, on her watch, she had nothing intelligent to offer. Christopher Luxon is a patient man - but he’s not ...
Chris Trotter writes – New Zealand politics is remarkably easy-going: dangerously so, one might even say. With the notable exception of John Key’s flat ruling-out of the NZ First Party in 2008, all parties capable of clearing MMP’s five-percent threshold, or winning one or more electorate seats, tend ...
Ministers must front up about which projects it will push through under its Fast Track Approvals legislation, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
The Government is again adding to New Zealand’s growing unemployment, this time cutting jobs at the agencies responsible for urban development and growing much needed housing stock. ...
With Minister Karen Chhour indicating in the House today that she either doesn’t know or care about the frontline cuts she’s making to Oranga Tamariki, we risk seeing more and more of our children falling through the cracks. ...
The Labour Party is saddened to learn of the death of Sir Robert Martin, a globally renowned disability advocate who led the way for disability rights both in New Zealand and internationally. ...
Labour is calling for the Government to urgently rethink its coalition commitment to restart live animal exports, Labour animal welfare spokesperson Rachel Boyack said. ...
Today’s Financial Stability Report has once again highlighted that poverty and deep inequality are political choices - and this Government is choosing to make them worse. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to do more for our households in most need as unemployment rises and the cost of living crisis endures. ...
Unemployment is on the rise and it’s only going to get worse under this Government, Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said. Stats NZ figures show the unemployment rate grew to 4.3 percent in the March quarter from 4 percent in the December quarter. “This is the second rise in unemployment ...
The New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...
The National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...
This afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...
Te Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...
Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...
Tonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
The Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...
Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...
The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...
Cuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
More essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...
Te Pāti Māori is disgusted at the confirmation that hundreds are set to lose their jobs at Oranga Tamariki, and the disestablishment of the Treaty Response Unit. “This act of absolute carelessness and out of touch decision making is committing tamariki to state abuse.” Said Te Pāti Māori Oranga Tamariki ...
The OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. ...
The Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...
Thank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...
The Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...
The coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...
Structured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...
The rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...
The Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...
New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...
Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...
From today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...
People with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...
Kiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...
There are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...
The return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...
The coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...
The Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...
The Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay heads overseas today for high-level trade talks in the Gulf region, and a key OECD meeting in Paris. Mr McClay will travel to Riyadh to meet with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). “New Zealand’s goods and services exports to the Gulf region ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford has outlined six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system that sets Kiwi kids up for future success. “I’m putting ambition, achievement and outcomes at the heart of our education system. I want every child to be inspired and engaged in their learning so they ...
The new NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) App is a secure ‘one stop shop’ to provide the services drivers need, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Digitising Government Minister Judith Collins say. “The NZTA App will enable an easier way for Kiwis to pay for Vehicle Registration and Road User Charges (RUC). ...
Whānau with tamariki growing up in emergency housing motels will be prioritised for social housing starting this week, says Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka. “Giving these whānau a better opportunity to build healthy stable lives for themselves and future generations is an essential part of the Government’s goal of reducing ...
Racing Minister Winston Peters has paid tribute to an icon of the industry with the recent passing of Dave O’Sullivan (OBE). “Our sympathies are with the O’Sullivan family with the sad news of Dave O’Sullivan’s recent passing,” Mr Peters says. “His contribution to racing, initially as a jockey and then ...
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I hope there are going to be further assistance announcements shortly.
I'm pretty concerned about consumer debt, there are thousands of people with credit cards, car finance and the like that they are not going to be able to service. These are the people that will get absolutely buried in fees, penalties, repossessions etc in short order and credit histories destroyed.
Really hoping this will be addressed.
On a positive note a friends landlord has said that given the mortgage holiday they will cut the rent over the shutdown to just enough cover rates insurances etc. Hope all landlords are acting this way.
how does the mortgage holiday work?
Banker here. Standard practise- what you would pay in interest is put onto your loan balance each month/fortnight/week. You then end up paying interest on your interest.
Great for short term cashflow. Horrible things for anything longer than 3-6 months.
We have been told to approve without any credit assessment for anyone asking for help due to the Covid situation.
Holiday is a bit of a misnomer then.
It does explain why amongst other reasons landlords won't want to ease up on rents, although those that can should.
It would be similar for businesses – government may front (interest free from the QE) loans for them to pay rent (for a month, 3 or 6 etc). But the businesses (those that survive) pay it back later.
For residential rents, it's more complicated.
There is income support to those who lose jobs (but not enough to cover their rent). Maybe all those who go onto income support should be able to evidence their circumstance to both
1. qualify the landlord for banker relief
2. reduce their rent payment to 50%. (with capacity to have this paid by government where even this caused hardship – outright or via interest free loan).
latest statement I saw had interest holiday as well…so no accumulated interest but banks will contact customers direct in next couyple of days with details
That's nice for those particular tenants but this is not a requirement so nearly no landlords will follow suit.
They are simply not built that way.
So we going to suspend capitalist economics from Wednesday , how about we just change the economy instead of reviving this corporate capitalist mess after this is over.
I'll second that. Crystal too.
So even Muller and the DOJ now agrees the whole Russians meddling in the election – was horse shit.
https://www.informationliberation.com/?id=61313
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/doj-moves-to-drop-charges-ira-russians-indicted-mueller-2020-3?r=US&IR=T
Well, no, that's not what your links say at all. Certainly no quotes to that effect.
And if I were in a conspiracist frame of mind, rather than saying it was bullshit I'd suggest that dolt45's AG has merely protected people who played a significant part in getting the fool elected.
Yup. I saw the charges against the Internet Research Agency were dropped like hot potatoes when they said they'd turn up to court. Pity. It would have been fun to hear prosecution arguments on how Jesus Masturbation memes on fb turned people to vote Trump….or Buff Bernie memes turned people off Clinton ..or, seeing as how the bulk of money spent by the IRA was spent after the election, how those ads managed to act backwards through space and time 🙂
The buff bernie memes are so bad, done by 2 year old nephew. I didn't even recognise it was bernie till someone pointed it out.
Watched an interesting youtube commentary that leaned on info compiled by COVID Act Now that was created by a team of data scientists, engineers, and designers in partnership with epidemiologists, public health officials, and political leaders to help understand how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect their region.
Make of it what you will, but it strikes me as level headed. I
Its focus is the USA, but a bit that pertains to here is on containment strategies. Essentially (or apparently), unless there is a Wuhan type containment strategy or a "Shelter in Place" strategy – which is kind of what NZ is doing (though you might say we're tilting a more towards Wuhan type containment) , then infection rates are reckoned to be over 70%. (That's for doing nothing and basic social distancing)
The modeling covers 8 weeks Wuhan type containment and 12 weeks Shelter in Place.
Here are the spread rates for the two scenarios.
Wuhan R0 assumptions: 1.3 for 1 week, 0.3 for 5 weeks, 0.2 for 1 week, 0.035 for 1 week.
Shelter in Place R0 assumptions: 1.3 for 4 weeks, 1.1 for 4 weeks, 0.8 for 4 weeks.
If the modeling is reasonable, then there's no way level 4 containment is going to be lifted after 4 weeks (though I guess it might be lifted in places and re-imposed etc)
Like I say, it’s an interesting read for those with a head for it. Recommended.
min of 12 weeks is my guess. it would make sense.
I'm guessing 12 weeks if everyone sticks to the game plan. I don't expect everyone to stick to the game plan though.
And I wish the foresight was there to shut supermarkets to the public where possible. Let local dairies use them as warehouse supply nodes.
That way, any outbreak is much more likely to be very local – eg, limited to people who had gone to the local dairy as opposed to the far wider geographical and populous area of those who had hit the supermarket.
from what i understand that if you get it mildly two – three weeks, but even after that you might still shed the virus.
if you get it hard case you might need treatment up to six weeks, with a long recovery period at home and a chance of long lasting lung damage.
So take the current situation, if we were all to stay the f at home as we supposed to, within ten to fourteen days we would know where all the sick people and carriers are.
they then need another two to twelve weeks to get back on their feet.
so twelve weeks. Goes hand in hand with what China experienced, and in saying that one of the Parliament Critters from Taiwan announced a 'second' wave coming as people are not 'social distancing'.
It matters little if you go to the supermarket, the dairy, the market or if you partner is an essential services. Its an aggressive virus, it transmits easily, and the question for all of us not IF we get it but rather When.
The best they can do is limit the numbers of people in shops according to shop size, have people cover their hair, wear a mask, gloves, and goggles if need be. do their shopping, pay at the self check out and all the shop staff does is wipe everything down with high grade cleaning products.
Our best hope is really that they will get quick tests in fast for all, and then keep testing people daily / weekly what ever until they find a. treatment, b. vaccine.
Its gonna be a long 2 years.
the question for all of us not IF we get it but rather When.
That had been my basic understanding – ie, about 70% of us would get hit over time, and the concern was to avoid everyone getting it in a short period of time and tanking health services and undertakers (basically).
However. (And, I mean, this just leads me to say "dunno") According to what I'm taking as a level headed take on stuff from this link (randomly landed on figures for Kansas – which seems appropriate 🙂 ), the measures NZ has in place can result in a hit rate of as low as 3%.
compare NZ to my home country Germany.
Germany 88 million people and a transit country. I.e. people from the rest of europe driving through, stopping gassing up, eating, shopping etc etc etc. Massive issue.
NZ. 4.5 million, close the airports, only open to repatriate tourists, and to let kiwis come back. Quarantine set up at the Airport, set up by the Army manned with Army doctors/nurses etc, plus the country on look down. And you pretty much only have 4.5 million to worry about.
We are in a remarkably good position to weather this with a low death toll, if people can stay at home. And that means no evictions, no foreclosures, etc etc etc and frankly i have yet to see the government really do something to make sure that ALL of Kiwis get to keep their house, not only the richest one.
But hey, i must be whinging.
But hey, i must be whinging.
lol
Well, as a renter, I thought it jolly spiffing that mortgage holders got a six month holiday (or some such). Not so jolly spiffing for the mum and her 7 year old who got evicted this morning. (Normality persists for some)
And as a Sick Ben (fucked if I know the 'new' label they applied to folk like me a few years back), I appreciate the opportunity for exercise being afforded me by not receiving any extra monies before this Wednesday.
So happy to not have a problem of making space in my tiny kitchen for extra food items. And thrilled that I get to pay internet and electricity and rent just like before.
Yup. Thankfully, I get to hang on to poor "normal" while the unfortunate, home 'owning' middle classes are no doubt going to be traumatized by the relief measures heading their way 🙂
again, its businesses that have an anual turnover of 250.000 and 80million that can apply. You know. Not all mortgage owner are equal either. Me and my micro business certainly don't apply, nor the dude that has a 70.000 or less income and a wife and three kids. WE so far got fuck all.
And the really small businesses are told to go to the bank for a loan. But to be fair when the local Labour Wanabe gonna come collect 'donations and votes' for their elections, i will tell them exactly that…..go to the bank for a loan.:)
Ahh, well i can't wait to cast my vote for a third party. 🙂
NZ. 4.5 million
At least 5 million counting our remaining residual transient tourists. Based on December 2019 being 4,951,500
But yes we are lucky, and yes, the main focus of support has been on employment directly or indirectly because that is how about 90% of the country makes its living.
So far I have yet to see you describe how you'd have done it differently.
If I understand the deal with the 'retail' banks, they are now targeting SME's with support provided they can show that they were solvent prior to December 31st.
In the meantime, I'm going to concentrate more on those who aren't likely to lose their house but are more likely to actually go homeless in an environment where there are no new jobs.
I have actually said very early on, some 6 – 8 weeks ago thatwe need a
mortgage / lease/ rent/ bill holiday for the duration of the shut down, for all. small and large businesses. By governmental degree. I have linked to several articles of countries that are doing this, Italy being one of the first todo so.
The main issue is that we need to keep people at home. We can't do that if they have bills to pay and can't keep up paying without money. Anyone who has will try to be essential services, it does not matter what hey do. And thus the disease will spread.
It is quite nice for the government to pay wage subsidies to companies large enough that hey can ride out the storm. However for businesses taht are not that big, don't have the big money behind them and need actual cashflow for monthly bills and overheads it means nothing. It would have been easier for the government to allow small businesses to let go of its staff early on and offer unemployement for the workers, coupled with heating assistance, food assistance, accom benefit to make up to the 80% of min wage as it does via the wage subsidy. As we will hire our staff back once we can work. As it is, my staff will get some money for twelve weeks and then she will go on the unemployment benefit as there are chances that i will have to default on lease and overhead payments.
Personally i am with bill, the easiest way wold have been to instruct IRD to send every adult of NZ a check of say 800 – 1000 per week. This would be enough in most cases to at least cover rent/food/utilites. No applying simply send out the check. The IRD should be set up for it as they already do that for tax refunds.
Next they could have cancelled the end of year/GST returns until say August. Non of that we will wave late payment fees. AS if any of us have the mind to do a stock take and fill out forms, specially when we are in lock down. And again, non of us make money so we don't have money even with the higher thresholds. So cancel provisional tax completly and let businesses keep that money.
Next they could have offered Goverment loans – this could have been done via WINZ – call them 'hardship' loans to businesses like mine. I don't mind taking out a loan, but i mind taking out a loan at standard interest rate because the government is not negotiating with the bank for us and thus even a small loan will be very expensive and hard if not impossible to repay. So a government loan with no repayments for say 4 – 6 month (depending on how long we may not be able to work) and then set the repayment rates according to business turn over.
So far we have paid subsidies to some of the biggest companies in nz, many whom are very actively avoiding paying taxes in the first place. now we are offering companies a mortgage holiday – but only if they are over 250.000 anual turn over or more. Instead we should have made it illegal for any evictions for the next 5 month.
We should have made it illegal for companies to cut of utilities.
My partner is the only income we now have – and he is a standard income waged worker, and he is essential service – so will be out and about fixing computers in banks and super market check outs and the likes and if he falls ill or worse dies, i will be homeless. Because i will have no way to generate an income. And there are many like me. a few tens of thousands. But its ok. I am just whinging.
We seem to have no issue asking for solidarity from those that have everything to lose yet we ask nothing from those that hoard money, houses, boats and the likes.
We woke up 2 x lump sum wage subsidy in our account this morning, for a couple who run a tourist retail gallery. One of our artists got a payment in his account too.
Apply, you'll get it.
If you've got a recent lease on an ADLS form there's a clause that covers this situation as a result of the Christchurch earthquake debacle. Look up 27.5 and 27.6, No Access in Emergency. Essentially rent ceases to be payable if a competent authority deems you cannot occupy the premises. If the lease is older than 2012 this may not apply and I gather this is what government is moving on in coming days.
In an earthquake or other damage scenarios the landlord would be able to claim on their insurance to recover the rent, but in the current situation the will most likely be an exclusion for pandemics. Hence Robertson said the other day that something was coming up regarding commercial leases, not doing something is going to get messy, and it'll be all the way up the chain to the big corporate retailers and others that have to close.
I'm eagerly awaiting details of the mortgage / loan repayment holiday too, that will be handy for cashflow, even if it's just kicking the can down the road.
Evidently some of the larger landlords around Queenstown are offering their tenants rent holidays, so they may have knowledge that they will get it back from somewhere.
we have applied, we have so far received nothing. mind winz will be over run with applications.
i am eagerly awaiting anything the government has to offer. And i know quite a few people here in Rotorua that are also worried witless.
Mostly i am worried for my partner. He will be out there working and we are in a two bedroom unit and its gonna be hell to quarantine either of us if we have/get the flu.
i am however over with the bail outs for the very rich. At the very least there should be some strings attached to the aid the receive, like paying taxes.
My tenants (while I was making sure that they weren’t going to have issues) said that their mate, a self-employed tradie, just got $12k in his bank account, meant to help cover 12 weeks of corona revenue drop (presumably in the past). I didn’t go into it further than that.
you might find this interesting.
https://www.npr.org/2020/03/19/817974987/every-single-individual-must-stay-home-italy-s-coronavirus-deaths-pass-china-s
a lot of my friends in the US also complained about the weirdest flu ever, hard hacking cough, no energy, fever every now and then, feeling weak and tired etc – which if you don't get the oxygen you need is what you would be feeling like. The only difference between the US and Italy, In Italy if you are ill you go to the doctor, in the US you take a pill.
It wouldn’t surprise me that there are bugs circulating. When they go retrospectively go through the biopsies and autopsy data at a genetic level then the origin will probably become pretty apparent.
However the basic issue is that history shows that the over-inflated human population has to be pretty damn careful of animal contacts. There has been a pretty clear species jump showing in origin morphology of all of the major pandemics of the last 2000 years where we have some reasonable histories. Often this is morphed into the human reservoir issue where a population get immune to a disease but acts as a carrier to another population.
It isn’t like we have the other major human reservoirs to uncap.
What we have left are animal population reservoirs and the unproven (but possible) ancient disease reservoirs (ie ones that show up in ice, but are not evident in any current population).
What I’m arguing is the we really need start focusing more closely at the sources of outbreaks. From HIV to Ebola to recent corona viruses we’re now routinely seeing cross-species infections.
Sabine
Then again, maybe evictions sometimes happen for a reason.
Maybe they save lives.
https://subzpsubzp.blogspot.com/
how many of violent sadistic state house tenants are there in NZ? i did not read any further. Also i don’t like the picture of the dog. Its a good doggo and his images is used to show a violent sadistic state house tenant?
More than a few if my Parents' area is anything to go by. Some really violent, anti-social, out-of-control people moving in (over last 4 or 5 years) to what was always a wonderful, peaceful, socially-mixed & community-minded street. Corollary of the move towards almost exclusively allocating to the severely problematic end of the Underclass.
Pompous affluent Luvvies, of course, get to ostentatiously virtue-signal & paternalistically romanticise in order to enhance their own social prestige & assuage their own guilt without ever doing one friggin iota of the suffering. It's a great little con trick.
An interesting blend of covert sadism, sheer cowardice & rank hypocrisy parading as some sort of moral righteousness.
Long-term residents – the socially-minded poor & middle-class (the vast majority Labour & Green supporters, incidentally) – get to be the unofficial scapegoats who are apparently expected to do all the penance on the Luvvies behalf.
Title of Post: Thrown to the Wolves
Illustrated by: A picture of an angry Wolf
Try not to be quite so silly. (or do I mean desperate ?)
Oh fuck … so it's still going on. I read your post all the way through and could visualise it all. Unacceptable at every turn.
My only useful advice is to start recording what it going on using a time stamped security camera; they’re not expensive these days. You never know when hard evidence will prove useful.
One way or another … I'll resolve this predicament. And then I might start telling some Home Truths to a few people with highly romanticised (& highly paternalistic) ideas about the Underclass.
Absolutely; our own similar experience pretty smartly slapped the delusions from us too.
This 'no eviction' policy is why landlords are so unhappy about the end of the 90 day 'no cause' termination notice. In this country the Police and Courts are of little assistance in dealing with anti-social tenants and effectively dump the problem onto the landlord.
Here in Australia we had a problem neighbour and when we talked to the property manager about it, we were promptly re-directed to the Police who very efficiently handled it. They made it clear to us that this sort of shite behaviour is either 'mad or bad'. What they told us to do was put a security camera pointing into the common area and if the behaviour changed then it meant the person had understanding that what they were doing was bad, and should then be held accountable and have consequences.
It turned out our case was 'bad', and eventually the consequence was a Court ordered eviction.
NZ has a long standing problem with violence, and until we can have an honest conversation around it's root causes, leaving out the self-serving yelling about racism and colonisation, we're pretty much stuck with it. There are many complex threads that feed into it, but the hard truth the left is very resistant to, is that you cannot help someone who will not take responsibility for themselves.
Red
Cheers, Red. Thanks very much for your support on this over the last year or so.
I'm familiar with your problem tenants & the serious trouble they've caused (been following your vigorous on-going debate with McFlock on the matter almost religously over recent weeks).
I'll have quite a bit more to say about my Parents' situation & the tacit No Eviction policy on my blog over the next few Months (but don't want to labour the point too much here … when people start going on about their private problems relentlessly on social media then it can get pretty tedious pretty quickly for everyone else. So probably just 3 or 4 posts on Sub-Zero outlining the problem, expressing my anger & frustration (hopefully without descending into a full-scale rant) & then exploring the broader political implications in a more sober way.
I was told by my daughter today her landlord in Edinburgh has had his curling rink commandeered for use as a temporary morgue….think that may be a pretty good incentive for us to do a better job of handling this than has been the case overseas
They must be anticipating one fuck of a spike then. Total deaths in Scotland atm are 10.
edit Oops. 14
thats what I thought….a helluva spike
Well…if that info I read around the impact of a successful "Shelter in Place" strategy is correct…
Am I the only one who has (perhaps mistakenly) laboured under the assumption that "flattening the curve" was only about spreading out the same number of infections over time?
I've been doing a bit of scattered reading the past few hours over a number of publications and noticing that the possible actual effects of isolation strategies aren't being explicitly stated – that the notion of "everyone" inevitably contracting the virus is the kinda accepted "truth" in more or less everything I'm reading. The containment info is sometimes in there (implied), but basically skipped over.
Assuming the "hit rate" can be brought down to single percentage numbers with good containment strategies in place, then…why isn't that message being pushed hard and repeatedly?
That is exactly what flattening the curve means.
Not all of us at the same time, but spread out.
and that is why this bullshit about bailing some rich fucker out here and there while throwing a few crumbs to the masses is such bullshit.
if people can't pay their bills – on nothing or on 80% – they will go out and try to make a living. Even if it means dying.
Yep.
The reason why is because there are zero treatments apart from keeping severe cases alive through the worst. That requires ventilators to help people breathe and near constant monitoring to save them if they're going under.
Flattening the curve (which you clearly grasped) is about making sure that there are ventilators and the treatments available for the severe cases. Thereby reducing the death rate.
Otherwise there is the secondary option of a hopefully brief visit to the curling rink.
Roll on a vaccine of an effective anti-viral. Because we really can't afford the (calculates) the potential 200-300k at about a 5% fatality rate who could die in NZ if our health system gets swamped. Which appears to be about the 'natural' cull rate of covid-19 in an unsuspecting populace given the usual 4-5 waves before herd immunity is acheived.
We lost 9k with a much simpler and easy to survive disease in 1918/19 effectively without any kind of useful care. That was between ~0.7% (european) and ~15% (maori) death rates of the populations with what was for the time close to the best available care. 45% deaths in Samoa because the dimwitted NZ occupation forces were too pig-ignorant to institute decent quarantines.
FFS: Doesn't anyone here ever read history? Or are they too interested in wanking about their own problems?
Flattening the curve (which you clearly grasped) is about making sure that there are ventilators and the treatments available for the severe cases. Thereby reducing the death rate.
No.
Different strategies flatten the curve differently. Shelter in Place can mean a total infection rate in the single digits. Social Distancing on the other hand, means widespread infection (up to herd immunity levels) spread over a longer time span.
For 37 days after infection to get close to 100% clear (ie something like a 99.5% certainty of clearance) of sheding according to the research I've been reading. Which is why they're using 14 days quarantine to prove clearance and after you're 'cleared'.
That is why this virus is way way worse than the 1918/19 influenza pandemic. It has a much long tail and a much more likely later waves. Which is why 4 weeks is the minimum.
just read somehwere today that it can 'live' in feces for up to five weeks.
Yep, i am having no issues with the 4 weeks of isolation. Its gonna bankrupt a lot of us smaller ones but at least we hopefully get to walk out of it alive.
I would expect waves for about 2 years…until either we have decent testing – and fast testing, and a vaccine or people build up some immunity.
However what is going to be a killer if it lasts that long is the damage to the lung by the virus, specially if one can catch it more then once. essentially then it is a recurring illness that will lead to death in a very short time. And that is my guess why everyone on this planet is currently tanking their economy. It is re-occuring and it is a killer.
It is likely we'd get an anti-viral first.
There has been a lot of aborted research on the various corona viruses over the last decade or two. SARS and MERS – but they've burnt themselves out too fast to finish the research. This one SARS-CoV-2 aka covid-19 looks like it will last long enough to get multiple disruption techniques finished.
Personally I not really interested in 30k base pair biological program defeating us this time. Because they're only going to get worse and we need to prevent the next outbreak.
Be nice to actually identify the human vector from the animal kingdom to this as well. A pogrom against whoever is rubbing up with the animal kingdom the wrong way and allowing these viruses to transfer so often is starting to look way more interesting than living with them.
I suspect that the Chinese government will have a good look at that.
But in NZ, we should look at our pig-farming and chicken-farming practices. And remove antibiotics from the hands of all farmers – vet only and they should be rationed.
Animal farming through much of the US and EU needs a severe curtailment.
Essentially we need to go back to ethical animal husbandry and ethical farming.
I hope for a decent test that is fast and reliable. Something like a blood sugar test, that can be done at home with a simle prick, daily if need be. Shows negative go to work, show positive of into self isolation you go for the next 12 weeks until at least two consecutive tests come back negative. What China did.
Then a treatment.
then a vaccines. Her is hoping that it will happen.
From what I understand, there appears to be too wide a range from known infection to testable results and to symptoms. The symptoms of whatever level show from 1 day to 12 days with the median at about 5 days.
Testing from what I have seen discussed is from 1 day to about 7-8 days for virus RNA or for antibodies. Which is what they’re testing for. The range of that means that testing simply is not that useful. Probably that is because most of the current testing is currently mostly based on swabs looking for RNA from the lungs.
If you look at the mechanics of a corona virus these delays become clear…
If you want grrrr.. for covid-19 read the section “Target: new infections”
That is complex, slow, and much of it is unlikely to trigger fast anti-bodies in the bloodstream (the virus targets the longs) or enough of an immediate expansion of viral RNA in the lungs immediately after infection. They are pretty much testing if someone is currently infectious rather than if they are infected.
A better way of testing would be useful because currently a single point in time for a test or at a single location is likely to miss the early infection.
The 2020 Democratic primary looks more and more like a zombie election where dead ideas (and comatose people) are taking over. Compare Sanders being pilloried for some obvious and non-controversial comments on the Cuban heakth system with this – Cuban medical team arrives in Milan.
Sociopathic.
https://twitter.com/NikkiMcR/status/1242134979859152899
https://twitter.com/ndrew_lawrence/status/1242245135129346050
The state of the national economy doesn't mean anything when (as happened to me many years ago) you come to realise that your breathing is not giving you enough oxygen, and if you don't get help in the next few breaths you will not have the strength to call out for assistance, and you will die soon thereafter.
I have sat by a relative as they died of lung cancer, going from chatty to dead in a seriously short period of time as they pass that same threshold of getting enough oxygen to sustain life, to not getting enough.
Sexton, Walsh, Kelly, Blanktein and Trump have no clue what they are talking about when they balance life against money.
In extremis, triage based on medical condition and prognosis, I can understand. Triage based on a banker's and a politician's fiscal survival instinct I do not agree with.
Just a thought –
If you want to speculate how Siomun and the Natz would have handled the Covid-19 pandemic – just look at how well Trump, Johnson and Morrison are doing – all right wing fwts.
With a series of bizarre, disconnected rants.
https://twitter.com/politicususa/status/1242233052409061377
I think he's right.
Too late now though, and ironically it was his call to shut the door from Europe which triggered the panic.
Still, this is the possible alternative which on any human level is horrific in the extreme.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120525145/bodies-found-in-spanish-care-homes-abandoned-over-coronavirus
The lack of leadership in AU UK and US just highlights how lucky we are.
That link from Bill up the thread is very scary
( https://covidactnow.org/ )
I thought it was very hopeful from a NZ perspective. Like I'm saying in other comments, I'm beginning to think I completely misunderstood the possible effect of a good containment strategy – ie, it's not about spreading an inevitable 'x' number of infections over a longer time period, but about drastically reducing the overall number of infections.
that would be the second reason.
slow down the cases of newly infection by denying the virus new bodies, and at the same time managing the cases arriving at the hospital. Not all people who have the virus will need the hospital. Many can simply stay at home and get better. Well if they can self quarantine at home without infecting the other people living at the house – something that China had an issue with initially.
While I thought we moved too soon – no real evidence of local spread. It's not clearly wrong, given
1. we lacked the testing capacity for such reassurance (the price we pay for not being better prepared)
2. the higher rates of returning Kiwis coming back infected and spreading to their self isolation others (each new one increased the risk of subsequent community spread).
Aided by airlines no longer operating and the arrival of testing kits from Singapore, we will come out of this month (includes the scheduled 2 weeks school holidays) better placed.
1. hopefully reassurance of no (or successfully suppressed) community spread (via community sample testing)
2. more secure arrangements for returning Kiwis – individual placement in the city they arrive at (apartments within hotels or home stays rented by government?) in place
3. the future risk is then Kiwis in Oz losing jobs and being denied income support (so if necessary we QE the dole to them and exploit the subsequent lower Kiwi dollar to the Oz one in trade)
4. air b n b homes no longer being used for tourists ease our housing supply issues
5. at some point we will have to determine on resumption of tourism – there will be antibody testing and vaccination (both depending on whether new strains emerge that can reinfect people).
What will inform us, is how China deals with multiple point reinfection through returning students (back from North America and Europe).
The only known at this point is that QEing our way our of a pandemic is going to scare the capitalist centres no end – how will they react, and when (and will we see it coming).
Yes for the USA I mean. I'm an optimist for NZ, except between 2-5am
Farrar watch:
PDF must have started to lose some contracts because after week of ranting about how slow we were to react he's now flip-flopped and is saying we should weigh up the costs and benefits of our actions.
Nothing like losing your job to hone one’ s analysis of the decisions under which you lost that job, eh Dave.
Question. As stores are starting to no longer accept cash and the country is about to go in lockdown, what am I supposed to do if I've recently lost my wallet and can't find my birth certificate 😭 in the meantime while I wait for replacement id which is going to take absolutely forever due to this shut down,but I need id so my useless bank can issue me a card. I'm waiting on a new debit card but I'll need id to pin that card.
On a side note there are many people I know who are on welfare who have never had photo id because for some it's too expensive, for others seems too complicated etc what are old people and beneficiaries who rely on cash going to do if more stores demand pay wave or card only. This could be really, really, really bad for some people.
Can a business legally decline cash as payment?
Ever tried to order on-line using cash …
Not under current laws in reality – you have to look at the differences between legal tender and refusing payment. See the arguments here (related to the 2006 change in currency).
Of course if you’re paying in cash, usually the amounts are too small to go an argue this in court (basically lawyers are way more expensive).
While I haven’t bothered to look at your discussion or why this query was raised, but generally not accepting legal tender as payment leaves the refuser in an invidious position if there is a substantial stake involved. Used wisely, it would probably bolster any case where legal tender was proffered and refused because it would speak directly to the motivations of the refuser.
Not under current laws in reality – you have to look at the differences between legal tender and refusing payment. See the arguments here (related to the 2006 change in currency).
Of course if you’re paying in cash, usually the amounts are too small to go an argue this in court (basically lawyers are way more expensive).
While I haven’t bothered to look at your discussion or why this query was raised. Generally not accepting legal tender as payment leaves the refuser in an invidious position if there is a substantial stake involved. Used wisely, it would probably bolster any case where legal tender was proffered and refused because it would speak directly to the motivations of the refuser. For instance and this has happened in cases of racial or sexual discrimination.
The old card cancelled after losing the wallet I presume.
Get what ID you can. Your IRD number would be good – better with a print out of your last years income off their site. That and historic statements of the account linked to the old card. Even a facebook page with your mug on it would help.
You have a better chance now than normally of them being helpful.
Thank you this is a good idea. I'll print out my old transactions. I'll also go in with my online banking logged in, proof of my address com services card a library card and ird
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120512184/coronavirus-what-stores-and-services-are-still-open-during-lockdown
thank you whomever cleaned up that link
Is it just me becoming a curmugen or are too many businesses taking the mickey? How is the warehouse an essential service? Mind boggling.
If we have any hope of damage limitation with this virus then everyone must do their bit including the warehouse, liquor stores, domino's etc.
This pretty crazy.
The Warehouse just thinks it's an essential service. They might be in for a shock.
Opps, while I'm typing, they're shut. Good
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120512184/coronavirus-what-stores-and-services-are-still-open-during-lockdown
I dont think high heeled shoes, duvet covers and crappy bluetooth speakers can be classed as 'essential items'.
You might be able to get away with cellphones and laptops though, given people need to get in tough with the world.
I was telling a UK pal about Aderns "keep faithful" line & my pal said Boris used the same term, I figured our Govts are talking and getting advice from eachother but that did make me chuckle. Also I figure places like Warehouse and retail are closing just because they're places where the public congregate, they said the same thing about playgrounds, so trade centres and mechanics (on skeleton crews) are ok, for now. I do hope this works.
Wow, that escalated quickly.
I'm in an OK situation, the company I work for allowed me to take annual leave (I had a lot owing) for the lockdown, so I'm taking some good chill out time. I had the option of working from home, but wasn't really keen, thought it would be a big hassle.
We will get through this. I'm just worried about what is going to happen afterwards, and what services that Finance Minister Paul Goldsmith will cut next year if National wins the election.