Election day

26 comments on “Election day ”

• Comments are now closed

1. Robinsod 1

   7 November 2008 at 9:19 am

   IV2 – you spamming prick.

   [I’ve deleted In2’s ad for his blog. Inv2, if you want to advertise on our blog, see us after the election, it won’t be free. SP]
2. Janet 2

   7 November 2008 at 9:49 am

   New Zealanders have to be free to make their own mistakes. If we have a National Act government after tomorrow, the honeymoon won’t last very long, and it will be a short lived government. So many people are voting for the right expecting pay offs – whether it is the right to hit their kids, money for their pet project, conservative social policy, a road past their front door, or cheaper workplace insurance – it will be impossible to satisfy them all. Especially as the economic crisis hits, and climate change worsens. Nat MPs will have to deal with constituent issues that they have no idea about – I just hope they try. Unfortunately, I know some MPs of the right who will blame the constituents for their own problems, and won’t bother with any help.

   I don’t dislike Key but after all the so-called Labour lite promises he’s made he won’t have a show of lasting very long as the right of the party becomes ascendant. He and Helen might actually become allies.

   With Ministers of Education like Anne Tolley who doesn’t know anything about education, Judith Collins who dislikes poor people as Minister of Social Development, Tony Ryall trying to privatise health, Murray McCully and Lockwood Smith embarrassing NZ internationally, it won’t be long before the people will be protesting frequently and loudly.

   Labour has shown it can provide stable viable left government so we now have this benchmark. If the vote goes against the left tomorrow Helen’s government will soon be looked back on as a golden age. Meanwhile the left will forge new alliances and strengthen, ready to be swept into power next time.
3. r0b 3

   7 November 2008 at 10:07 am

   I hope that the Left will win tomorrow.

   But I’m realistic, we may not. If we lose, we have lost well! The Labour led government has remained effective and disciplined all way. Key is well neutered by adopting so many Labour policies. He has to either: keep his word, in which case the damage that he can inflict is limited; or break it, in which case National are gone next election.

   But let’s not expect the worst. All hands on deck lefties! We can still win this. (As a personal note I am very involved in events locally, so signing off until Sunday. Go well friends).
4. Julie 4

   7 November 2008 at 10:08 am

   Janet I sincerely hope that if National do form the next Govt you are correct. I’m starting to get just a little bit down.

   In terms of the live blogging I’ll be doing I’d like to start under promising now 😉 I’ll be doing my best to live blog what is happening in terms of the party vote, the key electorates (I’ll be thinking about a list of these beforehand), and the sheer narrative of the night, based on what I can see happening on the telly and the interweb. I’ll be at home with some mates, not anywhere politically interesting (my mates are of course very interesting, and I’m sure I’ll steal their best lines and retell them as my own), and of course if the technology falls over or the baby creates merry hell then I may go awol. Not sure what the other Standardistas have planned!

   Captcha:
   Mortgage abduction
   Is this a sign that I should buy a lotto ticket so that my mortgage gets abducted? Perhaps it’s not a bad idea regardless, then if I win some money on election night I’ll feel a teeny bit better if the political results are bad 😉
5. Rosa 5

   7 November 2008 at 10:14 am

   If Helen goes I am going to miss her terribly.

   Every day for the last 9 years I have felt safe. Safe that we had someone in charge who really cared and believed in doing the best for New Zealand and ordinary New Zealanders, and was not interested in selling New Zealand to their rich business friends or driven by hatred as the right in New Zealand seem to be.

   Safe that we wouldn’t be involved in anyone elses wars.

   Safe that if calamity befell my family there would be a safety net.

   I don’t think think Helen is particularly replaceable – just a once in a generation leader and she deserved at least another term. The wheels haven’t fallen off her government and there is no need for a change. I find it so sad and inexplicable that the right and their media lapdogs have managed to convince the ignorant people of our country that Helen has wrecked the country when she has actually done so much good. I hope the people of New Zealand who have benefitted from Labour policies get out and support Helen and Labour on Saturday.
6. higherstandard 6

   7 November 2008 at 10:14 am

   What a bunch of negative nellies.

   If National form the next government why don’t you take a lead from McCain’s speech.

   As r0b said a while back – something along the lines of ……… it’s not about who wins and loses, it’s about what’s best for NZ and let’s hope that whoever forms the next government they work towards that goal.
7. randal 7

   7 November 2008 at 10:16 am

   never fear sod…inv2 is like all the other little tories whistling in the dark to keep their spirits up. you only have to look at the dompost today to see where their mindset is at and it is very creepy to think that the tories might get a GO but I dont think so
   the people of new zealand are usually pretty reliable when it comes to deciding whether this current lot of tories are mad ones or good uns and the thumbs are down this time
8. milo 8

   7 November 2008 at 10:19 am

   There is a great line in the West Wing re-election campaign. “I’m not the president of the people who voted for me, I’m the president of the United States of America.”.

   That’s why I can’t vote Helen. She has peddled contempt for people with legitimately different views. She has been the president of the people who voted for her, despite the incredible closeness of the 2005 election.

   But having said that – get and and vote! Even in South Auckland.
9. Janet 9

   7 November 2008 at 10:22 am

   I forgot to mention the polarising effect of Roger Douglas as Minister of Finance, which is Act’s price for support. In a perverse way that could almost be a pleasure to watch.

   In the meantime I urge left voters to vote strategically eg in Wellington Central, Green or other voters should give their electorate vote to Labour candidate Grant Roberston. Stephen Franks is just bad news all around, and he has a creepy bunch of rude, overprivileged kids waving banners about for him, when they are not destroying the left’s posters. As an electorate MP he wouldn’t care at all about the poor and vulnerable.

   There are probably similar battles around the country. And please, please, on the West Coast, may nobody at all vote for Chris Auchinvole. Green voters, please swallow hard and give your electorate vote to Damien O’Connor.
10. Pat 10

    7 November 2008 at 10:27 am

    Labour has traditionally enjoyed majority support from the various ethnic groups in suburban Auckland. I think this has been eroded in many areas and will have a decisive impact on the election.

    The Maori Party, Pacific Party and others will take some key party vote away from Labour in South Auckland and West Auckland.

    A good portion of Indian/Asian vote will swing to National away from Labour due to law and order concerns.

    Labour need a party vote swing in their favour. In reality, their party vote is swinging elsewhere, and in particular to the Greens. But also their party vote is being cannabilised by these other small parties.

    There has been no killer punch landed on John Key to swing votes away from National. For me, the turning point of this election was the first leaders debate. The momentum swung from Labour to National after this.
11. DamnPolitics 11

    7 November 2008 at 10:31 am

    Just a quick question – I’ve still got some of your fliers left over. Is it still legal for me to put them in peoples’ letterboxes today?
12. Ianmac 12

    7 November 2008 at 10:37 am

    I listened yesterday morning to the Minor Parties chat on Morning report. Interesting to hear Peter Dunne and Wodney at each others throat over economics before they even get elected. Imagine the cabinet table! Ha!
    A fine sunny day is good for Labour and the cell phone folk might yet come to light. Still glass half full of…..
13. Daveski 13

    7 November 2008 at 10:41 am

    Over recent years, I’ve been involved in a number of extremely divisive changes (I think it is clear I’m more of a consensus kind of guy than the one driving division).

    The reality of change is that things will never be as bad as the gloom merchants predict nor as great as the spin artists promise.

    A few months ago, Labour looked out of it and they have done well to get themselves back into the race. However, the reality of MMP is starting to bite them. Cannibalised from the left and the MP while Natioanal’s move towards the middle has been a smart MMP move.

    If Labour does lose, the need to blame their strategists (yes, blasphemy). Choosing to run on “trust”? A negative campaign rather than focusing on their acheivements? Mike Williams?

    I am also incredulous that the same people who decry National for their policies in the 1990’s can happily accept that the Labour party they hero worship today is not the same party of the 1980s. In politics, Leopards do change their spots.

    More tellingly, the real issue over the next 3 years will be the economy. It won’t be a bad election to win.

    On a personal note, I can tell the passion that people have here for politics and NZ. That’s not to say that the right doesn’t share that view (again, the myth of the NZ sux campaign). I have enjoyed the debate and the willingness most to engage with ideas and on a personal level it’s made the election more enjoyable than it otherwise would have been. The site is generally very well run and I think the mods have mostly done an excellent job even allowing for the transparent partisan nature of the site.
14. Ianmac 14

    7 November 2008 at 10:41 am

    Pat there has been no momentum since the first Leaders debate in the polls, but remember there used to be as much as 28% lead National over Labour. The trend if anything has been downwards for National.
15. Janet 15

    7 November 2008 at 10:57 am

    There’s a weird claim (among many others) that Richard Prebble lost Wellington Central as Labour candidate in 1993 and as Act candidate in 1999. The second part is right – he lost to Marian Hobbs and we we were so pleased – but I’m sure he wasn’t Wgtn Central Labour candidate in 1993. I think that might have been Chris Laidlaw. Perhaps he was dumped from Auckland Central in 1993? Can someone enlighten me? Whatever, it shows never to trust the media for accuracy.
16. Janet 16

    7 November 2008 at 11:07 am

    Palmerston North is another place where Greens should vote for the Labour candidate. Ian Lees-Galloway is part of the left’s youthful rejuventation. He’s very impressive. Plimmer the Nat candidate is an old, born to rule Tory and cousin of the National Party McKinnons – Don, Ian etc.
17. Matthew Pilott 17

    7 November 2008 at 11:11 am

    Janet – there was a by-election around then, when Laidlaw ran for Labour. I can’t remember Prebble being there though… I’m pretty sure it was when Wilde ran for mayor…
18. ak 18

    7 November 2008 at 11:12 am

    Goodonya r0b, may all your days be sunny and many thanks for all your sterling research and excellent comments over past months – your diligence, undying patience and grace in the face of extreme provocation is an example to us all.

    And it’s not over till it’s over: this will be known as the “Poll election”. The tories have poured millions into on-line and text-poll manipulation, and the unprecedented media bias has been relentlessly aimed at creating a “poll wave” for the apathetic middle voters who always decide our future.

    And remember too: 75-80% refusal rate (G Morgan himself): more homes than ever now cell-phone only: Colmar-Brunton always favours National: Helen’s excellent final debate not included in latest polls.

    Whatever happens, Helen’s legacy as one of our legendary PMs is secured by the ultimate flattery of her opponents. Any tory “win” will be entirely Pyrrhic: the incredible gains of the last nine years are cemented in place by the craven tory adoption – enhancement even – of Labour policy and direction.

    My only disappointment would be a result that denied Maori their first tantalising taste of real power in 170 years. With the rest of the world finally rejecting the reactionary historical handbrake that has stymied social evolution for 20 years, a “kingmaker” role for the MP could deliver a quantum leap to our proud social heritage.

    Go well, r0b, seeya sunday.
19. Steve Pierson 19

    7 November 2008 at 11:16 am

    damnpolitics. yes. although I recommend doing it early so people get them this eveing, not tomorrow morning.
20. higherstandard 20

    7 November 2008 at 11:19 am

    ak

    Although we have had some good PMs over the years I’m not sure you describe any as legendary.

    Unprecedented media bias ?

    http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/new-zealands-media-coverage-of-the-2008-election-study-preliminary-results.pdf

    Seems that the right wing bias of the media in NZ may be a figment of certain peoples imagination.

    Don’t give up on the Maori party – I’m hopeful that whoever ends up forming the next government will invite them to take a greater part than they have previously.
21. ak 21

    7 November 2008 at 11:38 am

    HS: Seems that the right wing bias of the media in NZ may be a figment of certain peoples imagination.

    One six-week study (which anyway shows Key had 47% of coverage versus Clark 27%) does not a thesis for a three-year campaign make.

    The Herald’s Lenin/Clark-front red page hysteria campaign has been obvious to all but the most blinkered tory partisan: an analysis of on-line and text polls, and a cursory look at the Auckland/male vote next week will confirm exactly how this election was “worked”.
22. Killinginthenameof 22

    7 November 2008 at 1:21 pm

    [update: oh yeah, and I will be the commentator from the Left on the Backbenches election special from 8pm on TVNZ7. I can barely wait for the warm reviews from our resident righties]

    But I thought you were Helen Clark?! Just kidding, awesome score Steve, I’m going to try and track down someone with TVNZ7 specially! have a ball.

    I’d also like to echo the sentiments from other posters, its been a privilege to have had so much of my growing up under Labour, long may it continue!

    A big thanks to The Standard too, despite providing hours of distraction from study and exams, you guys have been awesome, thanks heaps to Lynn for all the time, effort, money and sleep you for-go to keep this site running like clock work. Thanks Steve for your analysis, thanks Tane (and others I guess) for your the graphs. To me the graphs you have been producing a very important, they reinforce and confirm with objective measure what we know subjectively to be best for the country. Thanks too all the other posters too your contributions have been great as well. Thanks to all the posters too.

    Cheers to Robinsod too, you ass! Your always on the button it seems, especially with your humor.

    So, every one get out and vote tomorrow! and see you all Sunday.
23. Robinsod 23

    7 November 2008 at 2:37 pm

    Cheers KINTNO but you should have used “You’re” instead of “Your”. (I’d put a smiley face here to indicate I was teasing but I would be seen dead using emoticons…)
24. higherstandard 24

    7 November 2008 at 2:48 pm

    Still spinning stats to mislead ak – tut tut

    •Winston Peters and John Key received the most negative coverage amongst party leaders at 38% of their total media coverage each
    • Jim Anderton received the largest percentage of positive coverage at 37% of his total media coverage, followed by Helen Clark at 29%
    • John Key received 13% more negative coverage than positive, while Helen Clark had 1% more negative coverage than positive

    If there was any attempt at “working” of the election I’d suggest you look to the Labour party strategy unit and in particular one Mr Mike Williams and Ms Helen Clark rather than having a go at the media who are the same pack of sound bite fixated, zero analysis buffoons who think the story’s got more to do with them than anything else.
25. randal 25

    7 November 2008 at 3:05 pm

    HS if you were in someone elses pub you would be getting the heave ho right now for working the bar!
    as it is you can huff and puff all you like and produce as many stats and figures as you like but the truth is the people of New Zealand will speak tomorrow and they will speak for decency and fairness and rationality and not some blue sky water the stock grab everything we can tory fast buck scheme
    do you understand that or do you want some more plainspeaking?
26. Mark 26

    7 November 2008 at 10:56 pm

    Richard Prebble lost Auckland Central in 1993 to Sandra Lee. That year under First Past the Post I ended up voting for Sandra while actively campaigning for Helen Clark in her Electorate.

• Comments are now closed

• Log in
• Donate
• Contribute post

• Articles RSS