Written By: - Date published: 10:15 am, November 7th, 2008 - 41 comments
Categories: election 2008, polls -
Tags: roy morgan
The final Roy Morgan poll is out and the Left (LPG+M) has it by a nose with 62 seats out of a 122 seat Parliament. The Greens will be happy with 10% – that puts them in a strong negotiating position after the election and gives a 17 seat voting bloc in conjunction with the Maori Party.
A bit of a worry to see NZ First on 4.5% – I’d like to see them out of Parliament, or failing that blocking a hard-right National/ACT government. Having NZ First on 4.5% is the worst possible scenario.
Roy Morgan was the most accurate poll at predicting the last election result. We’ll have to wait until tomorrow night to see if they’ve done it again but one thing’s for sure – this election is still anyone’s game.
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Scoopit!
Patrick: “While I doubt Key has ability to hold together a government containing ACT, UF and the Maori Party, I’m quite hesitant to say so”
If National has established one thing over the years it is that it cannot work with other parties except perhaps Peter Dunne, who gets into bed with anyone provided the price is right.
Rex W,
Not being too wishful but I wonder have you noticed the wee changes apparent in nzf provincial ads… could, just could (bedrock = RM) tip itself over the line..
Interesting poll puts Labour ahead here.
http://www.tv3.co.nz/Default.aspx
Pita Paraone was on the wireless this evening saying that the race in Rimutaka is between Ron Mark and `the National candidate’, and `the Labour candidate’ was running a distant third.
I haven’t seen any polls of this electorate, but it goes against the conventional wisdom and sounds like a fairly big kite being flown by the NZ Firsties up there in the Hutt.
L
two items re Rimutuka and one of general interest
http://www.newswire.co.nz/2008/11/national-muzzles/
http://www.newswire.co.nz/2008/11/our-poll-ron-mark-well-behind-in-crucial-rimutaka/
http://www.newswire.co.nz/2008/11/text-poll/
Sarah
That to me seems closer to what actually will happen, just a sneak feeling
Wonder how many have done that tv3 poll?
It’s bias of course