Guest post – is it safe to lower the lockdown level?
Written By:
- Date published:
10:41 am, April 20th, 2020 - 58 comments
Categories: Deep stuff, health and safety, Politics -
Tags: covid-19, Covid19
Taken from a comment by Karl Sinclair.
Question: Is it safe to move now from level 4 to progressively lower levels?
Recommendation: Do not move to level 3 until we have:
- Robust testing strategies and capabilities in place to trace asymptomatic cases within our essential worker populations etc.
- The ability to protect the vulnerable
- Reviewed the effect on other countries moves to lower levels, such as Denmark, to gain their lessons learned.
Put it like this, would you fly in a plane that had this many design unknowns and lack of ground support?
PROBLEM STATEMENT:
COVID 19 is making it difficult for country to return to “normal life”. Safety levels have been put in place to help us return to normal. The effects of these levels are both positive and negative. The positives being the increase in lives saved, improved health outcomes, and an economy recovering quicker. The negatives (are effectively the opposite) can be seen in terms of loss of income, economic decline, and associated poor health outcomes (even loss of life) if people cannot get back to work.
Some might say this is a “wicked problem”, a balancing act, that will require precision and timing.
Key questions to ask before moving to level 3:
- Do we have the capability to move down levels and provide sustained protection to the vulnerable while we wait for a vaccine (if one comes at all?)?
- Do we have robust and sufficient COVID testing capabilities and PPE (to allow people back to work and ensure virus free health care providers)
- Are NZs testing strategies (essential workers targeted) robust enough to catch the asymptomatic spreaders?
- Do we have robust tracking and data base and data reporting capabilities?
- Do we have sufficient medical and elderly care capabilities (people, training and equipment)?
- Do we know enough about the virus to mitigate risk?
- Should NZ hold at level 4 to learn from other countries strategies (Denmark just reduced its level to allow school children back to school, what was the effect)?
- What is the confidence of eliminating the virus completely within NZ?
- Do we have the right criteria within the levels?
These questions will remain relevant to New Zealand as at some point we will need to get back to work and open our boarders. Essentially we have the moral imperative (momentum) to develop and invest in a capability to protect us from pandemics now and into the future. We need to find solutions.
Dr Chris Smith, consultant clinical virologist at Cambridge University in the UK said recently on Radio New Zealand: “this will be very difficult to eliminate Covid-19 completely from circulation in New Zealand when so many cases are believed to be asymptomatic”
THE IMPORTANCE OF QUALITY TESTING & REVIEWING OTHER COUNTRIES APPROACHES (before going over top of the trenches)
Sweden, Norway and Denmark may provide good comparison with New Zealand as population size/density, quality of health care and geography are to a degree similar (however, these countries are part of Europe, where an island nation). Other countries could be studied. The following data was taken from worldometer on the 19 April 2019 for all 3 Nordic countries:
- Sweden: Population 10.2 Million, 13,822 COVID positive, deaths 1,511, with 1,054 critical, deaths per million = 150.
- Denmark: Population 5.8 Million, 7242 COVID positive, deaths 346, with 76 critical, deaths per million = 60
- Norway Population 5.4 Million, 7069 COVID positive, deaths 164, with 63 critical, deaths per million = 30
Denmark and Norway have been seen to implement firmer restrictions than Sweden. Sweden may serve as an insight into how many would die or become critical if a “lighter” approach is taken by New Zealand (mimics a move to level 3 or 2). Can New Zealand sustain 1,054 critical patients or let alone 1,511 deaths that Sweden has? Comparing approach and consequent fatality and infection levels between Sweden, Denmark and Norway may help us to refine a strategy (taking into consideration the lag before the benefits of the measures are seen) as the latter two countries took a more strict approach.
An older exert from a web site called “The Local” on the 31st March 2020 compared the Danish, Norwegian and Swedish approaches.
An interesting comment from Swedish state epidemiologist Anders Tegnelll:
If Sweden’s health system is overwhelmed, then Denmark and Norway will feel their tougher policies were justified. But the real test of Sweden’s strategy will come later, when Denmark and Norway start to lift their lockdowns. Can they return to normal without the infection flaring up again? Will they be hit by a second wave this winter? Will any additional deaths Sweden sees over this Easter be the price it pays for having fewer over the coming years? “This is not a disease that you get rid of. And if you don’t get rid of it, what are you waiting for?” Tegnell said. “You can either wait for some kind of immunity to develop in your population, or you can wait for a vaccine. And the vaccine is, most likely, at least a year away.”
The current graph comparing the Nordic countries can be found here:
What exactly are the capabilities being put in place by these countries to keep the vulnerable safe? An alarming report dated April 20th 2020 from the Guardian discusses the lack of protection for the elderly in Sweden. Selected abridged quotes highlight:
Lena Einhorn, a virologist: “They have to admit that it’s a huge failure, since they have said the whole time that their main aim has been to protect the elderly,” she said. “But what is really strange is that they still do not acknowledge the likely route. They say it’s very unfortunate, that they are investigating, and that it’s a matter of the training personnel, but they will not acknowledge that presymptomatic or asymptomatic spread is a factor.”
the reason why Sweden has a much higher number of cases in care homes than in Norway and Finland is not because of the homes themselves, but because of Sweden’s decision to keep schools and kindergartens open, and not to shut restaurants or bars. “It’s not like it goes from one old age home to another. It comes in separately to all of these old age homes, so there’s no way it can be all be attributed to the personnel going in and working when they are sick. There’s a basic system fault in their recommendations. There’s no other explanation for it.”
“The worst thing is that it is us, the staff, who are taking the infection in to the elderly,” complained one nurse to Swedish public broadcaster SVT. “It’s unbelievable that more of them haven’t been infected. It’s a scandal.”
Although the above is just an exercise is New Zealands testing strategy going down Sweden’s path or is it more like Norways and Denmarks?
Numerous epidemiologists and scientists in New Zealand (and abroad noble prize winners) have been pressing for obtaining sufficient quality accurate test data to make informed decisions. Presume this also means sampling strategies and good data (not just random samples from selected supermarket chains but sentinel testing strategies) to ensure we improve our confidence in the data before changing levels. Various quotes:
- Otago University Professor and epidemiologist Sir David Skegg comment we will be playing “Russian roulette” with the health of New Zealanders if it makes a lockdown decision without first vastly improving rapid contact-tracing and collecting more information about Covid-19 in vulnerable communities. See
- Prof. M Baker – There appear to be gaps in the Government’s data on Covid-19 that must be filled before a decision is made on reducing the lockdown level, two top advisers say.
- Sir Peter Glucman has looked at how New Zealand could move from alert level 4 to alert level 2 as quickly as possible, however, it was mentioned in the article: “Given the inevitability of imperfect elimination, and given some probable level of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic spread, it will be critical to have rapid and highly effective and high capacity contact tracing in place before relaxing restrictions.”
- Professor Paul Shaun Hendy, an expert on modelling how the coronavirus spreads says New Zealand’s alert level 4 lockdown should be continued for another two weeks to strengthen chances of eliminating Covid-19.
- Paul Romer Nobel Lareate in economics: quote “ He imagines health workers being tested at the start of a shift; the same would go for care workers, pharmacists, police officers and bus drivers. You might add teachers and restaurant workers. Romer wouldn’t bother testing people who already have symptoms: they should be presumed positive and immediately self-isolate. It’s the “asymptomatic spreaders” you need to identify, stopping them in their tracks. The logic underpinning the plan is clear: there will be no point in reopening shops, pubs and restaurants if people feel too scared to visit them. As virologist Prof Nicolas Locker puts it, “You can’t lift the lockdown as long as you are not testing massively.”….. Governments need to realise that what’s coming is not a decision about easing this or that rule of social distancing, but rather a massive political, industrial and collective drive unseen since the last war. It may well mean repurposing factories to mass-produce testing kits. At the very least, it should mean a dedicated cabinet minister for testing.,,,,,,,,,,,,This demands a huge shift by the UK government, which wasn’t even testing people coming out of hospital and going into social care until this week.
Also see Paul Romers tweet.
Can we as a country honestly say New Zealand has the capability to protect our vulnerable and at the same time get our country back to work (move from level 4 down)? We might be lucky and have eliminated it, however, various experts say there is a high probability we won’t and at some point New Zealand will have to get back to work.
What can be gleaned from Paul Romer Nobel Lareates words above is that in the New Zealand context, we need to ensure a meaningful surveillance testing strategy and adapting new testing technology as it emerges (this appears to be what is happening in the USA). This testing can allow for creation of safe communities, workplaces, supply chains etc. It can also be used to protect the vulnerable by testing all people that work or deliver goods/services to care facilities before they enter.
For example, people can be tested before entering a workplace. Testing (if fit for purpose) will allow for the protection of the vulnerable such that it could buy time until a safe vaccine is developed and/or NZ is COVID free.
Testing (accuracy and quality still under review) to get the people back to work and protect the vulnerable being discussed in the USA and around the world include:
- Fast Antibody testing (catch asymptomatic)
- Fast COVID testing (proves you have it)
Building on Paul Romer Nobel Lareates ideas for NZ, its presumed essential workers level 4 and 3 who are the most likely transmission points could be tested. An example of the numbers involved in NZ is given below (a statistical subset of each work function could be taken if we do not have the capability).
- 8,100 Police frontline officers
- 58,206 enrolled nurses
- 13,883 registered active doctors
- 859 registered surgeons
- 62,000 Supermarket workers
- 2000 Career and 11,000 volunteer Fire Fighters
- ? Port workers
Think permutations and combinations of possible infection!!!!! Is astronomical the hiding place this virus can be in
Before we open schools we need to be cognisant of the numbers involved: Primary Pupils = 475,797, Secondary School Pupils = 286,886 and teachers = 70,000 Also there is approximately 60,000 pre-schoolers.
In addition to the above testing data needs, the risk attributes of virus listed below need to be determined to help develop a meaningful strategy:
- Immunity (does infection guarantee immunity, if so, for how long)
- Time infectious?
- Reactivation (like chicken pox you could reinfect people)
- Mutation (can the virus mutate and become more deadly)
- What’s the combined effects of flu, common cold with COVID 19
- How long does it take an individual to recover (long term effects and cost)
- Percentage of people susceptible that don’t have pre-existing conditions
- Time till development of a vaccine (if ever)
Further Questions:
- Could NZ Inc concentrate on developing safe facilities and capabilities (testing health care workers etc) for the vulnerable (elderly and or people with pre-existing comorbidities) going forward regardless? This would act as a safeguard or insurance policy (a controllable) if no vaccine or reliable anti body tests are found allowing schools and businesses to reopen.
- Is greater caution required before we move down a level given Japan and other countries are experiencing second waves of the virus.
- In terms of NZs technical advisory groups, have we ensured a wide enough expertise to cover off all areas from science, health, economics (designing strategy) all the way through to practical implementation (logistics and operations)? For example, MPI and NZDF will have good practical experience
Take care everyone, the world greatest ever game of whack a mole is about to begin.
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- Skeptical Science New Research for Week #17 2024Open access notables Ice acceleration and rotation in the Greenland Ice Sheet interior in recent decades, Løkkegaard et al., Communications Earth & Environment: In the past two decades, mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet has accelerated, partly due to the speedup of glaciers. However, uncertainty in speed derived from satellite products ...6 days ago
- Maori Party (with “disgust”) draws attention to Chhour’s race after the High Court rules on Wa...Buzz from the Beehive A statement from Children’s Minister Karen Chhour – yet to be posted on the Government’s official website – arrived in Point of Order’s email in-tray last night. It welcomes the High Court ruling on whether the Waitangi Tribunal can demand she appear before it. It does ...6 days ago
- Who’s Going Up The Media Mountain?Mr Bombastic: Ironically, the media the academic experts wanted is, in many ways, the media they got. In place of the tyrannical editors of yesteryear, advancing without fear or favour the interests of the ruling class; the New Zealand news media of today boasts a troop of enlightened journalists dedicated to ...7 days ago
- “That's how I roll”
It's hard times try to make a livingYou wake up every morning in the unforgivingOut there somewhere in the cityThere's people living lives without mercy or pityI feel good, yeah I'm feeling fineI feel better then I have for the longest timeI think these pills have been good for meI ...7 days ago - “Comity” versus the rule of lawIn 1974, the US Supreme Court issued its decision in United States v. Nixon, finding that the President was not a King, but was subject to the law and was required to turn over the evidence of his wrongdoing to the courts. It was a landmark decision for the rule ...7 days ago
- Aotearoa: a live lab for failed Right-wing socio-economic zombie experiments once more…
Every day now just seems to bring in more fresh meat for the grinder. In their relentlessly ideological drive to cut back on the “excessive bloat” (as they see it) of the previous Labour-led government, on the mountains of evidence accumulated in such a short period of time do not ...1 week ago - Water is at the heart of farmers’ struggle to survive in BeninThis is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Megan Valére Sosou Market gardening site of the Itchèléré de Itagui agricultural cooperative in Dassa-Zoumè (Image credit: Megan Valère Sossou) For the residents of Dassa-Zoumè, a city in the West African country of Benin, choosing between drinking water and having enough ...1 week ago
- At a time of media turmoil, Melissa had nothing to proclaim as Minister – and now she has been dem...Buzz from the Beehive
Melissa Lee – as may be discerned from the screenshot above – has not been demoted for doing something seriously wrong as Minister of ... 1 week ago
- Release: 130,000 cattle saved from live export
Labour is calling for the Government to urgently rethink its coalition commitment to restart live animal exports, Labour animal welfare spokesperson Rachel Boyack said. ...10 hours ago - Central Bank makes clear Government is pouring fuel on housing crisis fire
Today’s Financial Stability Report has once again highlighted that poverty and deep inequality are political choices - and this Government is choosing to make them worse. ...11 hours ago - New unemployment figures paint bleak pictureThe Green Party is calling on the Government to do more for our households in most need as unemployment rises and the cost of living crisis endures. ...13 hours ago
- Release: National’s job cuts already starting to bite as unemployment risesUnemployment is on the rise and it’s only going to get worse under this Government, Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said. Stats NZ figures show the unemployment rate grew to 4.3 percent in the March quarter from 4 percent in the December quarter. “This is the second rise in unemployment ...13 hours ago
- Release: National hiking transport costs for families and young New ZealandersWeekly expenses will grow for more than 1.6 million New Zealanders as the Government ends free and half price public transport fares tomorrow. ...1 day ago
- Release: Labour welcomes EU free trade agreementThe New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...1 day ago
- Surprise: Landlord tax cuts don’t trickle downThe Green Party is renewing its call for rent controls following reports of rental prices hitting an all-time high. ...2 days ago
- Release: $1.7b for no increase in access to medicineThe National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...2 days ago
- Release: National should heed Tribunal warning and scrap coalition commitment with ACTThis afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...2 days ago
- Release: More accountability for preventable workplace deaths this Workers’ Memorial DayLabour is calling for more accountability for preventable workplace deaths because everybody who goes to work deserves to come home safely. ...3 days ago
- Gaza: Aotearoa Must Support Independent Investigation into Mass GravesTe Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...5 days ago
- Release: Working together on consistent support for veterans this Anzac DayOur two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...1 week ago
- Release: Penny drops – but what about Seymour and Peters?Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...1 week ago
- Another ‘Stolen Generation’ enabled by court ruling on Waitangi Tribunal summonsTonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...1 week ago
- Release: Budget blunder shows Nicola Willis could cut recovery fundingIt appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...1 week ago
- Further environmental mismanagement on the cardsThe Government’s resource management reforms will add to the heavy and ever-growing burden this Government is loading on to our environment. ...1 week ago
- Release: RMA changes will be a disaster for environmentThe Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...1 week ago
- Release: Labour supports urgent changes to emergency management systemLabour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...1 week ago
- Release: Labour calls for New Zealand to recognise PalestineThe Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...1 week ago
- Release: Three strikes law political posturing of worst kindThe Government is bringing back a law that has little evidential backing just to look tough, Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said. ...1 week ago
- Release: Government cuts unbelievably target child exploitation, violent extremism, ports and airpor...Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...1 week ago
- Three strikes has failed before and will fail againResurrecting the archaic three-strikes legislation is an unwelcome return to a failed American-style approach to justice. ...1 week ago
- Release: Environmental protection vital, not ‘onerous’The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...1 week ago
- Ferris – Three Strikes targets those ‘too brown to be white’The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...1 week ago
- Release: Govt cuts doctors and nurses in hiring freezeCuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...2 weeks ago
- Fast-track submissions period must be extendedThe Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Progress on climate will be undone by GovtNew Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Dark day for Kiwi kids as a third of Govt cuts affect themNews that 1000 jobs at the Ministry of Education and Oranga Tamariki could go is devastating for future generations of New Zealanders. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Alarm as Government signals further blow to school lunchesMore essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...2 weeks ago
- Oranga Tamariki cuts commit tamariki to state abuseTe Pāti Māori is disgusted at the confirmation that hundreds are set to lose their jobs at Oranga Tamariki, and the disestablishment of the Treaty Response Unit. “This act of absolute carelessness and out of touch decision making is committing tamariki to state abuse.” Said Te Pāti Māori Oranga Tamariki ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Quick, submit – stop Govt’s dodgy approvals billThe Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...2 weeks ago
- Government throws coal on the climate crisis fireThe Government’s policy announced today to ease consenting for coal mining will have a lasting impact across generations. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Public transport costs to double as National looks at unaffordable roading project insteadCancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Cost of living in Auckland still not a priorityA laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...2 weeks ago
- Te Pāti Māori to visit Queensland to strengthen ties with Māori in AustraliaTe Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi, and Mema Paremata mō Tāmaki-Makaurau, Takutai Tarsh Kemp, will travel to the Gold Coast to strengthen ties with Māori in Australia next week (15-21 April). The visit, in the lead-up to the 9th Australian National Kapa haka Festival, will be an opportunity for both ...3 weeks ago
- Greens look to fast-track submissions on harmful lawThe Green Party has today launched a step-by-step guide to help New Zealanders make their voice heard on the Government’s democracy dodging and anti-environment fast track legislation. ...3 weeks ago
- Minister acknowledges passing of Sir Robert Martin (KNZM)
New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...7 hours ago - Speech to New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Parliament – Annual Lecture: Challenges ...Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...7 hours ago
- Accelerating airport security linesFrom today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...9 hours ago
- Community hui to talk about kina barrensPeople with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...15 hours ago
- Kiwi exporters win as NZ-EU FTA enters into forceKiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...15 hours ago
- Mining resurgence a welcome signThere are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...17 hours ago
- Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill passes first readingThe return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...1 day ago
- Government to boost public EV charging networkEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...1 day ago
- Residential Property Managers Bill to not progressThe coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...1 day ago
- Independent review into disability support servicesThe Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...2 days ago
- Justice Minister updates UN on law & order planJustice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...2 days ago
- Ending emergency housing motels in RotoruaThe Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...2 days ago
- Trade Minister travels to Riyadh, OECD, and DubaiTrade Minister Todd McClay heads overseas today for high-level trade talks in the Gulf region, and a key OECD meeting in Paris. Mr McClay will travel to Riyadh to meet with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). “New Zealand’s goods and services exports to the Gulf region ...2 days ago
- Education priorities focused on lifting achievementEducation Minister Erica Stanford has outlined six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system that sets Kiwi kids up for future success. “I’m putting ambition, achievement and outcomes at the heart of our education system. I want every child to be inspired and engaged in their learning so they ...2 days ago
- NZTA App first step towards digital driver licenceThe new NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) App is a secure ‘one stop shop’ to provide the services drivers need, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Digitising Government Minister Judith Collins say. “The NZTA App will enable an easier way for Kiwis to pay for Vehicle Registration and Road User Charges (RUC). ...2 days ago
- Supporting whānau out of emergency housingWhānau with tamariki growing up in emergency housing motels will be prioritised for social housing starting this week, says Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka. “Giving these whānau a better opportunity to build healthy stable lives for themselves and future generations is an essential part of the Government’s goal of reducing ...2 days ago
- Tribute to Dave O'SullivanRacing Minister Winston Peters has paid tribute to an icon of the industry with the recent passing of Dave O’Sullivan (OBE). “Our sympathies are with the O’Sullivan family with the sad news of Dave O’Sullivan’s recent passing,” Mr Peters says. “His contribution to racing, initially as a jockey and then ...2 days ago
- Speech – Eid al-FitrAssalaamu alaikum, greetings to you all. Eid Mubarak, everyone! I want to extend my warmest wishes to you and everyone celebrating this joyous occasion. It is a pleasure to be here. I have enjoyed Eid celebrations at Parliament before, but this is my first time joining you as the Minister ...3 days ago
- Government saves access to medicinesAssociate Health Minister David Seymour has announced Pharmac’s largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff. “Access to medicines is a crucial part of many Kiwis’ lives. We’ve committed to a budget allocation of $1.774 billion over four years so Kiwis are ...3 days ago
- Pharmac Chair appointedHon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...4 days ago
- Taking action on Fetal Alcohol Spectrum DisorderHundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says. “Every day, ...5 days ago
- New sports complex opens in KaikoheRegional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...5 days ago
- Diplomacy needed more than everForeign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges. “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...5 days ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address, Buttes New British Cemetery BelgiumAmbassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service. It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...5 days ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address – NZ National Service, Chunuk BairDistinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...6 days ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address – Dawn Service, Gallipoli, TürkiyeMai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia. Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...6 days ago
- PM announces changes to portfoliosPaul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...1 week ago
- New catch limits for unique fishery areasRecreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...1 week ago
- Minister welcomes hydrogen milestoneEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...1 week ago
- Urgent changes to system through first RMA Amendment BillThe coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...1 week ago
- Overseas decommissioning models consideredOverseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...1 week ago
- Release of North Island Severe Weather Event InquiryEmergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...1 week ago
- Justice Minister to attend Human Rights CouncilJustice Minister Paul Goldsmith is today travelling to Europe where he’ll update the United Nations Human Rights Council on the Government’s work to restore law and order. “Attending the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva provides us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while ...1 week ago
- Patterson reopens world’s largest wool scouring facilityAssociate Agriculture Minister, Mark Patterson, formally reopened the world’s largest wool processing facility today in Awatoto, Napier, following a $50 million rebuild and refurbishment project. “The reopening of this facility will significantly lift the economic opportunities available to New Zealand’s wool sector, which already accounts for 20 per cent of ...1 week ago
- Speech to the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective Summit, 18 April 2024Hon Andrew Bayly, Minister for Small Business and Manufacturing At the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective (SOREC) Summit, 18 April, Dunedin Ngā mihi nui, Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Ko Whanganui aho Good Afternoon and thank you for inviting me to open your summit today. I am delighted ...1 week ago
- Government to introduce revised Three Strikes lawThe Government is delivering on its commitment to bring back the Three Strikes legislation, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee announced today. “Our Government is committed to restoring law and order and enforcing appropriate consequences on criminals. We are making it clear that repeat serious violent or sexual offending is not ...1 week ago
- New diplomatic appointmentsForeign Minister Winston Peters has today announced four new diplomatic appointments for New Zealand’s overseas missions. “Our diplomats have a vital role in maintaining and protecting New Zealand’s interests around the world,” Mr Peters says. “I am pleased to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the ...1 week ago
- Humanitarian support for Ethiopia and SomaliaNew Zealand is contributing NZ$7 million to support communities affected by severe food insecurity and other urgent humanitarian needs in Ethiopia and Somalia, Foreign Minister Rt Hon Winston Peters announced today. “Over 21 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance across Ethiopia, with a further 6.9 million people ...1 week ago
- Arts Minister congratulates Mataaho CollectiveMinister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Paul Goldsmith is congratulating Mataaho Collective for winning the Golden Lion for best participant in the main exhibition at the Venice Biennale. "Congratulations to the Mataaho Collective for winning one of the world's most prestigious art prizes at the Venice Biennale. “It is good ...1 week ago
- Supporting better financial outcomes for KiwisThe Government is reforming financial services to improve access to home loans and other lending, and strengthen customer protections, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly and Housing Minister Chris Bishop announced today. “Our coalition Government is committed to rebuilding the economy and making life simpler by cutting red tape. We are ...2 weeks ago
- Green MP Julie Anne Genter apologises for 'intimidating' actions in Parliament
Rongotai MP Julie Anne Genter has apologised in Parliament after National accused her of intimidating and attacking one of its ministers in the House. ...2 hours ago - Politics with Michelle Grattan: Anne Summers says we need much more information on male perpetrators...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The Prime Minister and state and territory leaders met on Wednesday as the national cabinet to discuss a crisis gripping Australia – the horrific number of women murdered this year. The killings have shocked ...3 hours ago - Live cattle exports help farmers diversify income – Associate Agriculture MinisterThe government is hoping live animal exports will resume next year, but with a strict gold standard in place. ...5 hours ago
- Who were the real courtesans at the heart of Netflix’s Heeramandi?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Radhika Raghav, Teaching Fellow, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Otago Netflix Indian director Sanjay Leela Bhansali is known for his big-budget Bollywood production, featuring grand sets, star casts, meticulously choreographed dance sequences and lavish costumes, jewellery and furnishings. ...5 hours ago
- Police Minister Mark Mitchell heads to Australia to discuss crime trends, youth offendersMark Mitchell will be chewing the fat with police chiefs as officers in this country talk openly about the appeal of crossing the Tasman. ...6 hours ago
- Te Kāhui Tika Tangata Human Rights Commission Pays Tribute To Sir Robert Martin MNZM
Sir Robert devoted his life to disability rights after living in institutions in his younger years, says Kaihautū Tika Hauātanga | Disability Rights Commissioner Prudence Walker. ...6 hours ago - Passing Of Sir Robert Martin KNZMPeople First New Zealand Ngā Tāngata Tuatahi is deeply saddened by the passing of Life Member Sir Robert Martin KNZM. ...6 hours ago
- James Shaw's valedictory – and his new roleShaw has bowed out of Parliament, and has already revealed details of what he is doing next. ...7 hours ago
- James Shaw's valedictory – and his new rolesShaw has bowed out of Parliament, and has already revealed details of what he is doing next. ...7 hours ago
- AUKUS: Winston Peters says NZ 'long way' from deciding on Pillar 2Peters spoke about the military pact in an annual 'scene setter' speech at Parliament on Wednesday evening. ...7 hours ago
- National Cabinet has committed to a range of strategies to stop violence against women, but has it d...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anastasia Powell, Professor, Family and Sexual Violence, RMIT University Violence against women is not a women’s problem to solve, it is a whole of society problem to solve; and men in particular have to take responsibility. Those were the ...7 hours ago
- Is bioenergy ever truly green? It depends on 5 key questionsSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessica Allen, Senior Lecturer in Chemical and Renewable Energy Engineering, University of Newcastle Snapshot freddy/Shutterstock Plans to revive an old coal-fired power station using bioenergy are being considered in the Hunter region of New South Wales. Similar plans for the station ...7 hours ago
- Free school lunches scheme to get temporary funding until review is completeFunding for the scheme is set to continue for the "immediate few years" while officials work out what the alternative programme will look like. ...8 hours ago
- Taxpayers’ Union Slams Secret List Of Judges’ PerksResponding to the long-awaited release of judges’ special allowances, including free air travel and hotels for spouses, generous sabbaticals, and access to limousines, Taxpayers’ Union spokesman Alex Murphy said: “In what world does your employer ...8 hours ago
- Winston Peters expected to give update on AUKUS talks in speechAnalysis - The United States has unveiled plans to boost the weapons trade with Australia and the UK, on the same day that Winston Peters is expected to sketch NZ's position on AUKUS. ...8 hours ago
- Why did the Voice referendum fail? We crunched the data and found 6 reasonsSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrea Carson, Professor of Political Communication, Department of Politics, Media and Philosophy, La Trobe University Since Australia’s First Nations Voice to Parliament referendum in October 2023, diverse commentaries have sought to explain why it failed. But what does an analysis of media ...8 hours ago
- Court hears appeal of Waitangi Tribunal summons decision
Lawyers representing two iwi as well as the Māori Women’s Welfare League on Wednesday asked the Court of Appeal to overturn last week’s High Court decision on the Waitangi Tribunal’s decision to summons Children’s Minister Karen Chhour. The Tribunal is currently investigating the Government’s decision to repeal section 7AA of ...8 hours ago - Former MPs Louisa Wall, Simon O'Connor claim to be targets of China-backed cyber attackThe spy agencies are being questioned after two former MPs claim they were never informed they were victims of a China-backed cyber-attack. ...9 hours ago
- Kāinga Ora home vacancies 'trending downwards' after minister's letterThe agency recently changed the way it counts vacancies so it is more accurate. ...9 hours ago
- Albanese government flags measures to tackle online misogyny in the battle against violence towards ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The Albanese government will introduce legislation to ban deepfake pornography and provide more funding for the eSafety Commission to pilot age-assurance technologies. The contribution of internet sites to gender-based violence was one major issue ...9 hours ago
- Average Hourly Earnings Up 5.2 Percent Annually – Stats NZAverage ordinary time hourly earnings, as measured by the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES), increased 5.2 percent in the year to the March 2024 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today. Annual wage cost inflation, as measured by the ...10 hours ago
- Job scams are on the rise. What are they, and how can you protect yourself?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dimitrios Salampasis, FinTech Capability Lead | Senior Lecturer, Emerging Technologies and FinTech, Swinburne University of Technology Clem Onojeghuo/Unsplash In the digital era, the job market is increasingly becoming a minefield – demanding and difficult to navigate. According to the Australian Bureau ...10 hours ago
- Two Decades Of Youth Employment And Education – Stats NZAs of the March 2024 quarter, we can now look back on 20 years of data related to youth not in employment, education, or training (NEET), as collected by the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS), according to figures released by Stats NZ today. "The ...10 hours ago
- May Day: The Biggest Threat To NZ Workers In 2024 Is Our GovernmentThousands of workers attended public events in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch today to celebrate International Workers’ Day (May Day), but union representatives are urging caution and vigilance over the Government’s blatantly "anti-worker" ...10 hours ago
- Unemployment Rate At 4.3 Percent – Stats NZThe seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.3 percent in the March 2024 quarter, compared with 4.0 percent in the previous quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today. ...10 hours ago
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I try to read most posts here on TS and I almost always follow supplied links.
I had already, at some weird hour this morning, read the Guardian article you link to where virologist Lena Einhorn rails against the failure of the Swedish authorities to protect vulnerable residents of care facilities.
As in New Zealand, carers have been told that even basic PPE are not necessary unless the particular inmate has The Virus.
As a consequence, the death rate in this population, as here, is (to some, anyway) unacceptably high.
And the failure of the Swedish authorities to rectify this glaring fault in their Covid 19 management strategy is all the more bizarre when they claim (as does our government) that the main aim is to protect these vulnerable populations.
Thank you for adding to this conversation.
On Sweden – the glaring stat to me is that they have a low proportion of testing per million of their population. So how do they know more people haven't died but not been recorded as a C-19 death?
Exactly. And the threshold for testing here has only very recently been lowered.
I too suspect there is much wider community spread here in NZ, largely due to what we can now, with the benefit of hindsight, see was belated border controls and poor response from WHO.
I grew up in a medical household when we were all on the cusp of the vaccine rollout. The accepted wisdom was 'early and constant naturally acquired immunsation' …supported by good diet and plenty of exercise out in the fresh air and sunshine.
Part of me still thinks this makes sense as vaccines, despite the hype, are not necessarily safe or effective.
The influenza vaccine barely reaches 50% efficacy and this can lead to a false sense of security….especially in vulnerable populations who get the flu jab for free.
I worry that here in NZ there had been too much of our future thinking pinned on the hope of a vaccine…which appears less likely as time goes on.
That's why this seemingly worldwide paradox of governments claiming to have the interests of the most vulnerable at heart whilst at the same time failing to put measures in place to protect this population who require the highest levels of care.
And saying the PPE need to be conserved for future outbreaks….aren't we in the throes of an outbreak now?
Very, very baffling.
Hi Rosemary, great to get your comments.
You said:
"And the failure of the Swedish authorities to rectify this glaring fault in their Covid 19 management strategy is all the more bizarre when they claim (as does our government) that the main aim is to protect these vulnerable populations."
I feel your right, it is bizarre.
Questions
1. Do you think that across the world (and within NZ) the protection of the vulnerable has still not got to a suitable standard
2. That we (NZ) need to throw resources at this so that, so to speak the devil does not get in the door as a new study shows care homes in Europe are where over half the fatalities occur.
https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/17/coronavirus-care-homes-could-be-where-over-half-of-europe-s-covid-19-deaths-occur-says-new
3. Given potentially the current lack of PPE and capability in NZ, how would you approach making the vulnerable safe now until better capabilities arrive (how would you use your number 8 wire approach)
Take care
I have reflected on some comments yesterday on Open mike. We did all we could and within reason is the position which I feel the government needs to take. The emphasis is on "we did all we could."
To not make PPE available for home carers falls short, when it comes to the we did all we could test.
I have had years of dealings with government departments and I am still dealing with a lot of shit. All I have ever asked of them is, the we did all we could test.
I too spent time in reflection and discussion and am left with the impression that this contradictory stance by the Ministry of Health is actually part of a plan.
Sorry to say this but if this thing tracks as suspected, those uncomfortable projections done by Treasury and the like on 'long term care and fiscal sustainability ' could begin to look a lot less fiscally gloomy.
They should be transparent and say this…because I suspect a fairly high percentage of the population would would not find this too unacceptable.
Incorrect statements need to be corrected or ammended when new information is known.
It is hard to make accurate projections on care post Covid-19 due to the systemic complications of the viris, this cannot be said when it comes to being prepared with PPE for a pandemic.
Hi Treetop,
You said: "We did all we could and within reason is the position which I feel the government needs to take"
I feel your pain and agree. I don't envy the Governments task in all of this. Respectfully to the Government, we are not children, tell us the truth about our capabilities. I know there is a need to Keep Calm and Carry On, however, dont sugar coat, NZ Inc (we) are all in this together. Its surprising when Kiwis really have the problem nailed, they can come up with solutions….
Just on your point that "We did all we could", do you think we could further utilize untapped potential in our communities, universities, businesses etc….. If coordinated well it could provide alternative input to the Government. I think sometimes our GOV has a inward looking approach that uses a select few.
Image all the Universities in NZ having a competion to come up with solutions?
Be safe
I would start with untapped potential in yourself first.
What is it that I am capable of doing myself?
This is then not relying on another person. There are new skills which can be acquired gardening, sewing, painting, baking, cooking, meditation, an exercise regimen, a DIY hair cut or being the family hair stylist.
Being resilient is certainly being tested socially and economically. Most of us will manage providing we have realistic expectations and adapt to a slowed down world. Having the basics, a home, food, education, healthcare, employment or having connections is essential.
Input from the university of life, from the homeless, chronically un well and unemployed, is just as important as from university educated people.
Hi Treetop,
You said: "We did all we could and within reason is the position which I feel the government needs to take"
I feel your pain and agree. I don't envy the Governments task in all of this. Respectfully to the Government, we are not children, tell us the truth about our capabilities. I know there is a need to Keep Calm and Carry On, however, dont sugar coat, NZ Inc (we) are all in this together. Its surprising when Kiwis really have the problem nailed, they can come up with solutions….
Just on your point that "We did all we could", do you think we could further utilize untapped potential in our communities, universities, businesses etc….. If coordinated well it could provide alternative input to the Government. I think sometimes our GOV has a inward looking approach that uses a select few.
Image all the Universities in NZ having a competion to come up with solutions?
Be safe
Didn't the PM already spell out the Cabinet decision-making criteria for making the decision on Friday?
Health capacity and reinfection were criteria, but so too was economic impact, and social stress.
There won't be any shortage of datapoints to make the collective judgement.
So what is your recommendation? Level 4 for another 2 weeks, another 4?
Because that is what the Cabinet will ask. They will want actual recommendations, not just a series of questions.
And then they have to make a judgement, because reputable people are suggesting Level 3 and others are saying stay at Level 4, at least till ANZAC day.
And despite what Iprent thinks, it is perfectly reasonable to look at the Australian experience.
Rather then look at the problem as an epidemiological problem,it is necessary to examine it as a physics problem.
The significant parameter is transport,hence constrain CV for transport by lockdown,and social distancing.As far as known CV does not have wings so transport is by aerosol,and adhesion to rough surfaces such as clothes,face ,hair etc.
Increased interaction at present is a fail.
Wayne big business and National are bullying the govt creating a panic .Rushing to open the economy to early will cost way more in the long run.Having enough testing and tracing resources is most important.after years of cost cutting /underfunding under the Key govt we will be overwhelmed if Covid gets out of Control.It could be as simple as a warmer climate in Australia has reduced the spread. Because this is a new virus we don"t have all the answers yet.Rushing to open the economy would be more economically disastrous.
Hi Wayne, thanks, great comment, you highlighted:
"Because that is what the Cabinet will ask. They will want actual recommendations, not just a series of questions. "
Take your point, but is that not what Cabinet are supposed to do? or at least the ruling party?
If, looking at the current state of NZs capability take into consideration this:
A capability (s) is made up of people, training and equipment, it takes time and effort to develop the protocols/standards associated with the training and equipment. It takes time get the right people and buy the equipment (say test kits). This does not even take into consideration the testing of the capability to iron out the rough spots. The rinse and repeat process of capability development (people, equipment, training) can be used to make our elderly care facilities safe.
Should we go move to level 3 now, personally, from observation no.
If you asked me to put a time frame, your going to hate me……
It depends (an MIT professor said to always answer lawyers this way)
For example on RNZ news at 12 they said the gold standard of testing was only a week a way.
Well given that, we need to wait at least one week, but how many weeks do we need to wait until it is a fully functioning capability that cover the required numbers to support meaningful sentinel testing? If we move from 4 to 3 we may blow our gains.
Right now, totally making it up, if in the drivers seat and listening to other posts/news, I would go for 2 more weeks at level 4.
Take care
Based on best available estimates 2weeks of level 4 is about as effective in eliminating the virus as 4 weeks of level 3 with less risks of a super-spreader mucking things up.
Based on a survey of the countries that are doing best there is one thing that works (and it is cheap): MAKE EVERYONE WEAR MASKS.
So where does everyone get an effective mask from?
In Taiwan they seem to be able to manage. It doesn't need to be an N95. We are not trying to protect the wearer.
Ardern was keen on telling people to behave as if they have the virus. Any reasonably sturdy cloth or surgical mask will prevent passing on the virus through coughing, sneezing, talking or heavy breathing. Combined with hand washing, mask wearing very much reduces the likelihood of passing on the virus to anybody but very close contacts.
I was initially skeptical, but there is enough evidence now to say that the single most important factor in Taiwan's success has been the fact that everyone wears a mask in public.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/beauty/how-to-guides/120801748/coronavirus-how-to-make-a-protective-facemask-during-lockdown
or try:
http://www.pharmacydirect.co.nz/Face-Masks/
https://new.grabone.co.nz/health-nutrition-dental/other-natural-medicine/p/disposable-face-masks-1
http://www.healthcareessentials.nz/category/2326-masks
https://www.annahstretton.co.nz/products/face-mask-pack-of-3
Same place they buy their hand sanitizer from…
joe90 "where does one get an effective mask from?"
Simple answer: China. They effectively stole our supplies of PPE.
Chinese government controlled companies were systematically stripping PPE from pharmacy and supermarket shelves here and in Australia as far back as January (I wondered at the time why these disappeared so early in the crisis). China is no friend of anyone. Sooner we form an alliance with Taiwan and recognize it as the country it is, the better.
Just one reference form a web load of the evil practises of the Chinese Empire:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120927408/new-zealanders-caught-short-after-masks-sent-to-china
Do we have to let history repeat itself?
One big lesson: You can’t give up early on social distancing.
[…]
In a lot of cities, similar premature pullbacks produced a lot of “double-humped epi curves,” as Markel described them: Officials instituted social distancing measures, saw flu cases fall, then pulled back the measures, saw flu cases rise again, and reactivated the measures.
Notably, the second spike in deaths only appeared when cities removed social distancing measures, Markel’s study found: “Among the 43 cities, we found no example of a city that had a second peak of influenza while the first set of nonpharmaceutical interventions were still in effect.”
The PNAS study, which looked at 17 US cities, reported similar findings: “no city in our analysis experienced a second wave while its main battery of [nonpharmaceutical interventions] was in place. Second waves occurred only after the relaxation of interventions.”
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/24/21188121/coronavirus-covid-19-social-distancing-1918-spanish-flu
Given masks need to be changed regularly where are they going to come from
https://www.facebook.com/renilda.almanzor/videos/3014389155258670/
https://twitter.com/escapedmatrix/status/1246230749625319429
Joe 90, good article, I liked this exert from it.
The most successful approaches in 1918, Markel found in his 2007 study published in JAMA, followed those three components. First, they were early — particularly before the flu got to an inflection point in which the virus infected a certain amount of people and spread rapidly. Second, they were sustained — lasting until the virus really seemed to go away, and quickly redeployed if the virus came back.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/24/21188121/coronavirus-covid-19-social-distancing-1918-spanish-flu
I liked the bit in bold, which would infer they had the resources and capabilities ready to go, does NZ Inc?
Also reading this from your quoted article makes me ask, does our modern day society have the stamina and motivation like the 1918 society described below in your referenced article:
"3) Seeing the effects of outbreaks drove people to serious action
The question, given the reality of how long social distancing may be necessary, is how people are going to get through this. Even beyond the damage to the economy and the loss of income involved, people are going to miss out on a lot of the experiences that enriched and validated their lives before. Experts worry social distancing, even if it’s necessary, just won’t be sustainable for weeks or months.
But people did do social distancing for weeks and months during the 1918 flu pandemic.
Markel gave one potential explanation for that: People were already very familiar with the risk if they didn’t social distance. Back then, disease epidemics and pandemics of all kinds were common. Just about everyone knew someone — from parents to aunts and uncles to children — who died of disease."
Cheers
The government has earlier stated lockdowns work in blocks of two weeks, being the understood length of time for the virus to "run it's course".
Yes, so logically level 3 will be for two such cycles, or a total of four weeks (barring a rapid rise in cases).
I see Ireland is looking at bars being closed for up to 18 months, and the UK until Christmas, Micheal Gove stating that bars and hospitality in general will be the last to be freed from restrictions.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8235181/Pubs-UK-shut-Christmas.html
My prediction is that Level 4 will be extended till next Monday midnight. In terms of work days for most businesses that could open, it is only two work days (Thursday and Friday) that are lost, but it extends the lockdown by five days. So a reasonable approach.
It is already evident that people are starting to practise Level 3 anyway and that will increase this coming weekend. I would say we are reaching the limit of what people will readily accept. In terms of social distancing public practise will be close to Level 3 by next Monday night.
Professor Hendy was essentially suggesting this on Morning Report.We will know in just over 3 hours.
Hendy is suggesting that an extension of two weeks,could allow for elimination.Do you want us to stumble with the end goal in sight?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121123513/coronavirus-modelling-expert-says-lockdown-should-be-extended-two-weeks
I'm reminded of George Box's famously attributed comment on modelling.
"All models are wrong, but some are useful"
A lovely review of him in the link below
https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2010.00442.x
Hendy on Morning Report also said Monday night would be a reasonable compromise. He would prefer 2 extra weeks but that next Monday night would be OK.
I'd predict the same: the exact date is less important than knowing the date. It won't be an open-ended Level 4 extension.
As mentioned on the other thread, the framing has been so successful that the NZ public are effectively volunteering for an extension of the lockdown, rather than rebelling against it as we're seeing in other countries.
The hard part of today's announcement will be the end date for the next period: the PM can (and doubtless will) emphasise that it is only provisional, but whatever date is given (e.g. 2 or 4 weeks after Level 4 ends), that will become the new expectation of "release".
Yet most New Zealanders support continuing Level 4 for longer according to the media stories I've seen this last few days, some based on polling.
Which 'people' are you thinking of?
Unless testing and tracing systems are up to scratch, then coming out Level 4 would be a bit silly – not just in terms of leaping backwards in relation to possible eradication, but also in relation to health service capacity.
Anyway. A few bases I want to cover.
Have a look at the first graph in the post and tell me that the peaks aren't 'table top mountain' peaks. In other words, in terms of infection rates/deaths, we fly up the cliff face and then spend a long time plodding down off the escarpment. And that's not quite the impression being given by media speaking of 'peaks'.
Sweden with its voluntary distancing might be getting higher death rates now, but the important number will be in the final death rates. And we won't know how Sweden has compared to (say) other Nordic countries until some time in the future. (jist sayin')
Lastly.
It might be the case that NZ is in the very unusual position of being able to possibly eradicate the virus. I can't see that being the case for places with already high numbers of infection. But assuming there is no vaccination on the horizon (a reasonable assumption), and assuming 'the rest' of the world remains chronically infected – what then for a Covid free NZ? How's that work?
" But assuming there is no vaccination on the horizon (a reasonable assumption), and assuming 'the rest' of the world remains chronically infected – what then for a Covid free NZ? How's that work?"
It works a hell of a lot better than if we dont eradicate the virus here….the specifics can wait
I agree. But still…I wonder if people are giving it any thought, and how they might feel about living in Noah Land, aye? 😉
Pretty sure many are…theres plenty of evidence of agendas at play
A trade and tourism union and free travel area with other similar countries, such as Australia and Taiwan would be a start.
Agree re Sweden: interestingly, the infection rates for all the Nordic countries, despite their vastly different approaches, are almost identical. Yes, testing rates and methods may play into that, but so does the demographic profile and so many other variables.
Hugely disagree re 'no vaccination on the horizon (a reasonable assumption)'. Its now a global effort, many many trials now progressing through the animal testing stage and about to enter the human testing stage. This virus no doubt will lead to a quantum leap in scientific knowledge.
"Agree re Sweden: interestingly, the infection rates for all the Nordic countries, despite their vastly different approaches, are almost identical."
Best you go look again…Sweden considerably worse on all measures.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Using the figures above in the article, Infection rates, that being as a percentage of the total population, are all about .0013 for all the Nordic countries.
Death rates are irrelevant, as reflect demographics, level of health care, heath care policies and so on.
2 key stats ..infections per million and testing per million
Sweden has the lowest (by far) testing rate yet has the highest detected case rate (double that of Finland)
It's a logarithmic graph, not a linear one.
Can you explain how that works in terms of what I'm seeing?
Am I simply not understanding how the graph should be interpreted, and the virus is perhaps fading as fast as it arrived? (All I’m seeing is a very slow decline in numbers for Italy, the US, UK, France…)
Just tends to flatten out the tops, is all.
You're comment is hardly explanatory Sacha.
Is my basic interpretation right, or is it way off the mark because of an incorrect reading of the graph? Or put another way, does the fact of the graph being logarithmic or linear make any meaningful difference to what I wrote?
The peaks are probably sharper than they look here. Sorry, day job intervenes.
Totally agree.
From the first three to four minutes of this link.
The Netherlands has tested its blood banks for the virus, and the results indicate that infection rates in the Netherlands are far higher than is being picked up by testing out in the general population.. Assuming the blood banks are a representative cross section of society (ie- absenting a reason to suspect that people donating blood should have a higher infection rate) – then the death rate as a percentage drops considerably.
Anyone know if New Zealand has tested it's banks of donated blood and compared the rate of infection detected there to the infection rate from general testing? And if that has been done, how do the numbers compare?
They have certain protections in place in NZ for blood donations eg no contact with C-19 positives, no sickness symptoms, at least 4 weeks since returned from overseas, etc.
Hmm. So perhaps in the interests of getting an accurate picture, any testing would have had to have been done on the 35 day stock that existed prior to March 23rd?
I dare say blood was never taken from people who were 'feeling off' – and that would apply in the Netherlands and elsewhere too.
Anyway, the findings in the Netherlands are interesting….and (just thinking this through as I type) – shouldn't NZ's donated blood be tested given that Covid doesn't necessarily mean that infected people exhibit symptoms?
It's a wee bit of a worry that decisions are being made on the basis of inadequate data.
I am very suspicious of the results of the pop up paknspend testing.
Personally, I'm dead keen for Level 3 as life in Lockdown for Peter and myself sees us in a less than safe living environment. For various reasons. Level three would herald the start of the'moving back to our own safer living space' process which in itself might take two weeks or more before we can go 'home's and ultimately be safer.
Putting self interest aside however, the facts are that this government has not enough data to truly know there is little if any community transmission AND with what information we do have it would seem that having frail old folks and high needs disabled sacrificed to the Virus Gods might actually be part of a worldwide plan.
I am hating Level 4. BUT, I simply don't trust that the government does in truth have the interests of this vulnerable group at heart and they might actually be safer at Level 4.
do you know if mechanics will be back at work under L3 and under what conditions? eg essential repairs only?
I don't see why mechanics can't work now, tbh, allowing self interest a free rein. In my experience the average truck and car repair shop is hardly cuddle central. Social distancing is most definitely order of the ordinary pre Virus work day. Smoko might have to be altered…but the actual work would create less of a transmission issue than what I observed last time I ventured into a supermarket.
But that's just my biased opinion.😉
Here's hoping.
the govt wanted to limit driving, so I can see why normal mechanical business would be classed as non-essential under L4. Call outs eg AA were still going afaik, but I don't know if they were doing repairs. You'd hope so.
Still sucks you weren't given access to your bus.
Starter motor (or possibly the battery) clapped out on the car last night when my partner was going to the supermarket.
But it is local, so she walked there, and I followed her on the e-bike with dual panniers and a backpack.
But I’d point this out about mechanics…
https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/120787609/how-to-take-care-of-your-car-during-lockdown
see https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/120787609/how-to-take-care-of-your-car-during-lockdown
Mechanics were essential already. But a lot of them, especially the smaller ones, closed down.
And don’t forget the dairy operators.
in my area none of dairy owners wore masks or had any precautionary measures (Perspex dividers etc.) taken other than a one customer in the shop at the time.
how we could allow dairy’s operating like this beyond any logic.