Latest Roy Morgan Poll – Labour surges
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9:18 pm, September 27th, 2016 - 191 comments
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I know that we should not celebrate good polls but given all the attacks by the usual suspects on Andrew Little after the last Colmar Brunton poll result I thought this particular Roy Morgan poll should be given a bit of air time.
National is down 4.5% to 41.5%. Labour is up 8% to 33.5% which is more in line with its last UMR poll result. The Greens are down to 12% and NZ First is down to 8.5%.
Of course this does show how unstable the Roy Morgan poll is. But I look forward to a continuous beat up by the media about how National is doomed.
191 comments on “Latest Roy Morgan Poll – Labour surges ”
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- Release: National should heed Tribunal warning and scrap coalition commitment with ACTThis afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...3 weeks ago
- New measures to protect powerlines from trees
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced that the Government will make it easier for lines firms to take action to remove vegetation from obstructing local powerlines. The change will ensure greater security of electricity supply in local communities, particularly during severe weather events. “Trees or parts of trees falling on ...1 day ago - Wairarapa Moana ki Pouakani win top Māori dairy farming awardWairarapa Moana ki Pouakani were the top winners at this year’s Ahuwhenua Trophy awards recognising the best in Māori dairy farming. Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka announced the winners and congratulated runners-up, Whakatōhea Māori Trust Board, at an awards celebration also attended by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Finance Minister ...1 day ago
- DJ Fred Again – Assurance report received"On the 27th of March, I sought assurances from the Chief Executive, Department of Internal Affairs, that the Department’s correct processes and policies had been followed in regards to a passport application which received media attention,” says Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden. “I raised my concerns after being ...2 days ago
- District Court Judges appointedAttorney-General Judith Collins has announced the appointment of three new District Court Judges, to replace Judges who have recently retired. Peter James Davey of Auckland has been appointed a District Court Judge with a jury jurisdiction to be based at Whangarei. Mr Davey initially started work as a law clerk/solicitor with ...2 days ago
- Unions should put learning ahead of ideologyAssociate Education Minister David Seymour is calling on the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) to put ideology to the side and focus on students’ learning, in reaction to the union holding paid teacher meetings across New Zealand about charter schools. “The PPTA is disrupting schools up and down the ...2 days ago
- Craig Stobo appointed as chair of FMACommerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly today announced the appointment of Craig Stobo as the new chair of the Financial Markets Authority (FMA). Mr Stobo takes over from Mark Todd, whose term expired at the end of April. Mr Stobo’s appointment is for a five-year term. “The FMA plays ...2 days ago
- Budget 2024 invests in lifeguards and coastguardSurf Life Saving New Zealand and Coastguard New Zealand will continue to be able to keep people safe in, on, and around the water following a funding boost of $63.644 million over four years, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Associate Transport Minister Matt Doocey say. “Heading to the beach for ...2 days ago
- New Zealand and Tuvalu reaffirm close relationshipNew Zealand and Tuvalu have reaffirmed their close relationship, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says. “New Zealand is committed to working with Tuvalu on a shared vision of resilience, prosperity and security, in close concert with Australia,” says Mr Peters, who last visited Tuvalu in 2019. “It is my pleasure ...3 days ago
- New Zealand calls for calm, constructive dialogue in New CaledoniaNew Zealand is gravely concerned about the situation in New Caledonia, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The escalating situation and violent protests in Nouméa are of serious concern across the Pacific Islands region,” Mr Peters says. “The immediate priority must be for all sides to take steps to de-escalate the ...3 days ago
- New Zealand welcomes Samoa Head of StatePrime Minister Christopher Luxon met today with Samoa’s O le Ao o le Malo, Afioga Tuimalealiifano Vaaletoa Sualauvi II, who is making a State Visit to New Zealand. “His Highness and I reflected on our two countries’ extensive community links, with Samoan–New Zealanders contributing to all areas of our national ...3 days ago
- Island Direct eligible for SuperGold Card fundingTransport Minister Simeon Brown has announced that he has approved Waiheke Island ferry operator Island Direct to be eligible for SuperGold Card funding, paving the way for a commercial agreement to bring the operator into the scheme. “Island Direct started operating in November 2023, offering an additional option for people ...3 days ago
- Further sanctions against RussiaForeign Minister Winston Peters today announced further sanctions on 28 individuals and 14 entities providing military and strategic support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “Russia is directly supported by its military-industrial complex in its illegal aggression against Ukraine, attacking its sovereignty and territorial integrity. New Zealand condemns all entities and ...3 days ago
- One year on from Loafers LodgeA year on from the tragedy at Loafers Lodge, the Government is working hard to improve building fire safety, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “I want to share my sincere condolences with the families and friends of the victims on the anniversary of the tragic fire at Loafers ...3 days ago
- Pre-Budget speech to Auckland Business ChamberKa nui te mihi kia koutou. Kia ora and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you so much for having me here in the lead up to my Government’s first Budget. Before I get started can I acknowledge: Simon Bridges – Auckland Business Chamber CEO. Steve Jurkovich – Kiwibank CEO. Kids born ...4 days ago
- New Zealand and Vanuatu to deepen collaborationNew Zealand and Vanuatu will enhance collaboration on issues of mutual interest, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “It is important to return to Port Vila this week with a broad, high-level political delegation which demonstrates our deep commitment to New Zealand’s relationship with Vanuatu,” Mr Peters says. “This ...4 days ago
- Penk travels to Peru for trade meetingsMinister for Land Information, Chris Penk will travel to Peru this week to represent New Zealand at a meeting of trade ministers from the Asia-Pacific region on behalf of Trade Minister Todd McClay. The annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Ministers Responsible for Trade meeting will be held on 17-18 May ...4 days ago
- Minister attends global education conferencesMinister of Education Erica Stanford will head to the United Kingdom this week to participate in the 22nd Conference of Commonwealth Education Ministers (CCEM) and the 2024 Education World Forum (EWF). “I am looking forward to sharing this Government’s education priorities, such as introducing a knowledge-rich curriculum, implementing an evidence-based ...4 days ago
- Education Minister thanks outgoing NZQA ChairMinister of Education Erica Stanford has today thanked outgoing New Zealand Qualifications Authority Chair, Hon Tracey Martin. “Tracey Martin tendered her resignation late last month in order to take up a new role,” Ms Stanford says. Ms Martin will relinquish the role of Chair on 10 May and current Deputy ...4 days ago
- Joint statement of Christopher Luxon and Emmanuel Macron: Launch of the Christchurch Call FoundationNew Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and President Emmanuel Macron of France today announced a new non-governmental organisation, the Christchurch Call Foundation, to coordinate the Christchurch Call’s work to eliminate terrorist and violent extremist content online. This change gives effect to the outcomes of the November 2023 Call Leaders’ Summit, ...5 days ago
- Panel announced for review into disability servicesDistinguished public servant and former diplomat Sir Maarten Wevers will lead the independent review into the disability support services administered by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. The review was announced by Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston a fortnight ago to examine what could be done to strengthen the ...5 days ago
- Minister welcomes Police gang unitToday’s announcement by Police Commissioner Andrew Coster of a National Gang Unit and district Gang Disruption Units will help deliver on the coalition Government’s pledge to restore law and order and crack down on criminal gangs, Police Minister Mark Mitchell says. “The National Gang Unit and Gang Disruption Units will ...5 days ago
- New Zealand expresses regret at North Korea’s aggressive rhetoricForeign Minister Winston Peters has today expressed regret at North Korea’s aggressive rhetoric towards New Zealand and its international partners. “New Zealand proudly stands with the international community in upholding the rules-based order through its monitoring and surveillance deployments, which it has been regularly doing alongside partners since 2018,” Mr ...5 days ago
- New Chief of Defence Force appointedAir Vice-Marshal Tony Davies MNZM is the new Chief of Defence Force, Defence Minister Judith Collins announced today. The Chief of Defence Force commands the Navy, Army and Air Force and is the principal military advisor to the Defence Minister and other Ministers with relevant portfolio responsibilities in the defence ...5 days ago
- Government puts children first by repealing 7AALegislation to repeal section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act has been introduced to Parliament. The Bill’s introduction reaffirms the Coalition Government’s commitment to the safety of children in care, says Minister for Children, Karen Chhour. “While section 7AA was introduced with good intentions, it creates a conflict for Oranga ...5 days ago
- Defence Minister to meet counterparts in UK, ItalyDefence Minister Judith Collins will this week travel to the UK and Italy to meet with her defence counterparts, and to attend Battles of Cassino commemorations. “I am humbled to be able to represent the New Zealand Government in Italy at the commemorations for the 80th anniversary of what was ...5 days ago
- Charter schools to lift educational outcomesThe upcoming Budget will include funding for up to 50 charter schools to help lift declining educational performance, Associate Education Minister David Seymour announced today. $153 million in new funding will be provided over four years to establish and operate up to 15 new charter schools and convert 35 state ...5 days ago
- COVID-19 Inquiry terms of reference consultation results received“The results of the public consultation on the terms of reference for the Royal Commission into COVID-19 Lessons has now been received, with results indicating over 13,000 submissions were made from members of the public,” Internal Affairs Minister Brooke van Velden says. “We heard feedback about the extended lockdowns in ...6 days ago
- The Pacific family of nations – the changing security outlookForeign Minister, Defence Minister, other Members of Parliament Acting Chief of Defence Force, Secretary of Defence Distinguished Guests Defence and Diplomatic Colleagues Ladies and Gentlemen, Good afternoon, tēna koutou, apinun tru It’s a pleasure to be back in Port Moresby today, and to speak here at the Kumul Leadership ...6 days ago
- NZ and Papua New Guinea to work more closely togetherHealth, infrastructure, renewable energy, and stability are among the themes of the current visit to Papua New Guinea by a New Zealand political delegation, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “Papua New Guinea carries serious weight in the Pacific, and New Zealand deeply values our relationship with it,” Mr Peters ...6 days ago
- Driving ahead with Roads of Regional SignificanceThe coalition Government is launching Roads of Regional Significance to sit alongside Roads of National Significance as part of its plan to deliver priority roading projects across the country, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The Roads of National Significance (RoNS) built by the previous National Government are some of New Zealand’s ...6 days ago
- New Zealand congratulates new Solomon Islands governmentA high-level New Zealand political delegation in Honiara today congratulated the new Government of Solomon Islands, led by Jeremiah Manele, on taking office. “We are privileged to meet the new Prime Minister and members of his Cabinet during his government’s first ten days in office,” Deputy Prime Minister and ...7 days ago
- New Zealand supports UN Palestine resolutionNew Zealand voted in favour of a resolution broadening Palestine’s participation at the United Nations General Assembly overnight, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The resolution enhances the rights of Palestine to participate in the work of the UN General Assembly while stopping short of admitting Palestine as a full ...1 week ago
- Speech to the 2024 Infrastructure SymposiumIntroduction Good morning. It’s a great privilege to be here at the 2024 Infrastructure Symposium. I was extremely happy when the Prime Minister asked me to be his Minister for Infrastructure. It is one of the great barriers holding the New Zealand economy back from achieving its potential. Building high ...1 week ago
- $571 million for Defence pay and projectsDefence Minister Judith Collins today announced the upcoming Budget will include new funding of $571 million for Defence Force pay and projects. “Our servicemen and women do New Zealand proud throughout the world and this funding will help ensure we retain their services and expertise as we navigate an increasingly ...1 week ago
- Climate change – mitigating the risks and costsNew Zealand’s ability to cope with climate change will be strengthened as part of the Government’s focus to build resilience as we rebuild the economy, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “An enduring and long-term approach is needed to provide New Zealanders and the economy with certainty as the climate ...1 week ago
- Getting new job seekers on the pathway to workJobseeker beneficiaries who have work obligations must now meet with MSD within two weeks of their benefit starting to determine their next step towards finding a job, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “A key part of the coalition Government’s plan to have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker ...1 week ago
- Accelerating Social InvestmentA new standalone Social Investment Agency will power-up the social investment approach, driving positive change for our most vulnerable New Zealanders, Social Investment Minister Nicola Willis says. “Despite the Government currently investing more than $70 billion every year into social services, we are not seeing the outcomes we want for ...1 week ago
- Getting Back on TrackCheck against delivery Good morning. It is a pleasure to be with you to outline the Coalition Government’s approach to our first Budget. Thank you Mark Skelly, President of the Hutt Valley Chamber of Commerce, together with your Board and team, for hosting me. I’d like to acknowledge His Worship ...1 week ago
- NZ – European Union ties more critical than everYour Excellency Ambassador Meredith, Members of the Diplomatic Corps and Ambassadors from European Union Member States, Ministerial colleagues, Members of Parliament, and other distinguished guests, Thank you everyone for joining us. Ladies and gentlemen - In diplomacy, we often speak of ‘close’ and ‘long-standing’ relations. ...2 weeks ago
- Therapeutic Products Act to be repealedThe Therapeutic Products Act (TPA) will be repealed this year so that a better regime can be put in place to provide New Zealanders safe and timely access to medicines, medical devices and health products, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello announced today. “The medicines and products we are talking about ...2 weeks ago
- What Is Behind The Turmoil In The New Zealand Green Party?
The instability comes as the party tries to refresh its brand after six years of being part of a right-wing, pro-imperialist government with both the Labour Party and, from 2017-2020, the far-right NZ First Party. ...2 hours ago - Wake Up Call: Government Debt Hits $90,000 Per Household Today – “$90k Debt Day”Based on the latest Treasury forecasts, New Zealand Government debt will tick above $90,000 per household for the first time ever at 10pm today, Sunday 19 May 2024. The Taxpayers’ Union is calling it “$90k Debt Day”. Commenting on this, Taxpayers’ ...2 hours ago
- Watch: Christopher Luxon speaks at National Party conference
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon will be talking at the Palmerston North Function Centre on Sunday morning. ...5 hours ago - Iwi Leaders Group united against Oranga Tamariki scrapping Treaty obligationsIf the government really wants Oranga Tamariki to continue working with Māori groups, it should leave the law as it is, leader says. ...7 hours ago
- Government IT Systems Need A $800 Million OverhaulThe government is facing a bill of more than $800 million to overhaul back-office IT systems, and attempts to lessen its impact have hit delays. ...8 hours ago
- Bolstering support for Asian personnel in the NZ Defence ForceThe founder of a Pan-Asian network in the New Zealand Defence Force hopes to support Asian personnel in their defence careers. ...8 hours ago
- 'Increasingly Activist' Waitangi Tribunal Faces Its Future Under Renewed Attack From Senio...David Seymour has renewed attacks on what he says is an 'increasingly activist' Tribunal as it faces questions about its future. ...9 hours ago
- An Ode to .. Shane Jones
Arawata Shane Arawata Shane had wandered long In the wild tangled hills of the West Coast. He came to a stop on the mighty range And looked down at the wide river flats. He breathed in the clean air, And he took in the shadows playing across The face of ...9 hours ago - Fiji’s Jo Nata reflects on the 2000 coup: ‘We let the racism genie out of the bottle’
SPECIAL REPORT: Islands Business in Suva Today is the 24th anniversary of renegade and failed businessman George Speight’s coup in 2000 Fiji. The elected coalition government headed by Mahendra Chaudhry, the first and only Indo-Fijian prime minister of Fiji, was held hostage at gunpoint for 56 days in the country’s ...14 hours ago - Rule change to protect powerlines from being hit by treesEnergy Minister Simeon Brown wants a 'clear to the sky' zone to prevent vegetation hanging over lines. ...19 hours ago
- New Caledonia riots: Tear gas, stun grenades used as protesters swarm airport runwayBy Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific journalist and Kelvin Anthony, RNZ Pacific digital journalist Police have used tear gas and stun grenades on rioters at an airport near Nouméa as the chaos in New Caledonia stretched into its sixth day. Five people, including two police officers, have died and hundreds of ...21 hours ago
- Government faces further legal action over Māori Health Authority axingIt is the second High Court action into the government's policies affecting Māori. ...24 hours ago
- Kanaky New Caledonia: Amnesty calls on France to ‘uphold rights’ of indigenous peopleAsia Pacific ReportThe global human rights watchdog Amnesty International has called on France to not “misuse” a crackdown in the ongoing unrest in the non-self-governing French Pacific territory of Kanaky New Caledonia in the wake of a controversial vote by the French Parliament to adopt a bill changing the territory’s ...1 day ago
- Revamped school lunches may be less healthy – principalA major provider of school lunches fears the government's new $3 limit for most students will see them eating more pre-packaged and processed food. ...1 day ago
- ‘Stop laughing, I’m trying to kill someone’: Cohen Holloway on playing a serial murderer
The star of Dark City: The Cleaner takes us through his life in TV, including the VHS revolution and the John Campbell impression that started it all. Best known for his comedic roles, Cohen Holloway says he struggled at times to maintain the stone cold facade of serial killer on ...1 day ago - A life storyDavid Hill remembers an old friend, who you’ve probably never heard of. My friend Doug never travelled; he had little interest in the world beyond his own tiny rural town. I’ve rarely known anyone who radiated such contentment. Doug (I’ll call him that) died in March. You won’t know him. ...1 day ago
- Do you recognise anybody in these 150-year-old photographs?Some of the earliest photos of life in Aotearoa are on display at Auckland Museum right now – but the identities of some of the people in them are a mystery. What was it like to be one of the first people in New Zealand to have their photo taken? ...1 day ago
- The indie books fest bringing big ideas to small town WairarapaSince its founding almost a decade ago, Featherston Booktown has grown into one of the country’s most interesting and idiosyncratic literary events. Erin Banks reports from the audience. “Come in, have you had lunch? I’m about to make a cheese toastie.” Mary Biggs, operations manager of Featherston Booktown Karukatea Festival, ...1 day ago
- Enduring the voyage of the tatauAfter 33 years abroad, Loveni Enari recently returned to Aotearoa and Samoa in what a friend joked was an “existential crisis”. He learnt and re-learnt so much about his family, friends and both countries. Almost as an afterthought, he got a Samoan tatau. This is his story. (Accompanying it are ...1 day ago
- Bearing witness to a confession of murderNearly 30 years ago, two people told me they’d killed a woman they knew. I thought the truth would come out, that others would tell it. In the end, I had to. The Sunday Essay is made possible thanks to the support of Creative New Zealand. Fact: in 1995, Angela Blackmoore ...1 day ago
- The Weekend: A landmark case for trans rights in AotearoaEditor Madeleine Chapman looks back at the week and shines a light on some increasingly rare longform journalism. Mōrena and welcome to The Weekend where there will sadly be no aurora to see. After a busy week last week of short, sharp pieces, this week we swung the other way, ...1 day ago
- Tourists trapped by New Caledonia unrest feel ‘abandoned’ by NZBy Lauren Crimp , RNZ News reporter New Zealanders stuck among riots and civil unrest in New Caledonia’s capital say they feel abandoned by their own country, having received little help from the government. Nouméa descended into chaos on Monday, with clashes between indigenous Kanak pro-independence protesters and French security ...2 days ago
- Kanaky in flames: Five takeaways from the New Caledonia independence riotsANALYSIS: By David Robie, editor of Asia Pacific Report Jean-Marie Tjibaou, a revered Kanak visionary, was inspirational to indigenous Pacific political activists across Oceania, just like Tongan anthropologist and writer Epeli Hao’ofa was to cultural advocates. Tragically, he was assassinated in 1989 by an opponent within the independence movement during ...2 days ago
- When body positivity becomes problematicForget thin is in, apparently now bigger is better … or is it? After over a decade of body positivity, girls, teens and women are even more confused about what body positivity actually is. The movement began with women confronting unrealistic expectations of how their bodies should look. But sub-strands ...2 days ago
- Short story: Ruin, by Ockham winner Emma HislopGrace always sat at the bar at the back of The Cambridge, where she could watch who came in. A huge mirror ran the length of the pub, so you could sometimes watch people without them knowing. The mirror made the place seem a lot bigger than it really was. ...2 days ago
- The Secret Diary of .. Sheriff Mark MitchellMONDAY Sheriff Mark Mitchell rose at dawn. He had a long day’s ride ahead of him. He was headed for Waikeria. Waikeria! Even the name itself stirred his blood, and set root in his imagination. There was nothing and no one in Waikeria. But he would bend it to his ...2 days ago
- The Boy in the Water: A forensic examination, at lastThe first phase of the inquest into the death of Gore toddler Lachlan Jones finished this week, turning up plenty of revelations and few answers. But through all the confusion, heartbreak and antipathy on display, the simple fact at the heart of this case remains: if little Lachie’s body had ...2 days ago
- How Many Public Sector Roles Are Going, And From Where?Public servants' jobs are on the chopping block as the sector scrambles to meet the Finance Minister's cost-cutting targets. ...2 days ago
- Can you control your image? Gina Rinehart, King Charles and ‘moral portraits’Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Roger Benjamin, Professor in Art History, University of Sydney “She’s no oil painting”. Those were the unkind words of a colleague commenting on the subject of Vincent Namatjira’s acrylic painting, Gina. Every one of the prominent Australians and cultural heroes in Namatjira’s ...2 days ago
- Government plans for Māori wards breach The Treaty of Waitangi -TribunalGovernment plans to require local councils hold a referendum on whether to have Māori wards breaches the Treaty of Waitangi, a Waitangi Tribunal report has found. ...2 days ago
- Threatened species have declined 2% a year since 2000. Nature positive? Far from it.Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Megan C Evans, Senior Lecturer, Public Sector Management, School of Business, UNSW Sydney Martin Tobias Aakesson/Shutterstock Our government has great aspirations. It has committed to end extinctions and expand our protected areas to cover 30% of every Australian ecosystem by 2030. ...2 days ago
- Rugby league in Perth and Papua New Guinea? Here’s what could be next for the NRLSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Harcourt, Industry Professor and Chief Economist, University of Technology Sydney This year the National Rugby League (NRL) opened its season in Las Vegas. It was an audacious move by the league’s ambitious head honcho Peter V’Landys to showcase the game in ...2 days ago
- The budget has earmarked $8.6 million for live music. Is it enough to save the flailing industry?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Strong, Associate Professor, Music Industry, RMIT University Leading music organisations have praised the federal budget for its investment in the live music sector. The budget includes A$8.6 million for a program called Revive Live: to provide essential support to ...2 days ago
- The Week in Politics: Charter schools, special police units and a tricky problem for the governmentThe Week in Politics: ACT brings back a signature policy, while NZ First mulls how to fulfil a promise. ...2 days ago
- There’s $110 million for Indigenous education in the budget. But where’s the evidence it will wo...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marnee Shay, Associate Professor, Principal Research Fellow, The University of Queensland The 2024 federal budget contains A$110 million for Indigenous education. This includes funding for various different organisations to represent and help Indigenous people as well as scholarships in a bid to ...2 days ago
- New Caledonia’s Nouméa airport closed until Tuesday, says Air New ZealandAir New Zealand has confirmed Nouméa’s Tontouta International airport in New Caledonia is closed until Tuesday. The airline earlier told RNZ it would update customers as soon as it could. Earlier today, Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters told RNZ Morning Report government officials had been working on an “hourly basis” ...2 days ago
- Cameras reveal wombat burrows can be safe havens after fire and waterholes after rainSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Grant Linley, PhD Candidate in Ecology, Charles Sturt University Grant Linley Australia’s unprecedented Black Summer bushfires in 2019–20 created ideal conditions for misinformation to spread, from the insidious to the absurd. It was within this context that a bizarre story ...2 days ago
- ChatGPT is now better than ever at faking human emotion and behaviourSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marcel Scharth, Lecturer in Business Analytics, University of Sydney OpenAI executive Mira Murati launching GPT-4o. OpenAI Earlier this week OpenAI launched GPT-4o (“o” for “omni”), a new version of the artificial intelligence (AI) system powering the popular ChatGPT chatbot. GPT-4o is promoted ...2 days ago
- Menopause can bring increased cholesterol levels and other heart risks. Here’s why and what to do ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Treasure McGuire, Assistant Director of Pharmacy, Mater Health SEQ in conjoint appointment as Associate Professor of Pharmacology, Bond University and as Associate Professor (Clinical), The University of Queensland Speedkingz/Shutterstock Menopause is a natural biological process that marks the end of a ...2 days ago
- The Friday Poem: ‘Xiāng’ by Hannah PattersonA new poem by Hannah Patterson. Xiāng There’s a pear tree in our backyard And Xiāng tells me She can’t eat them anymore Not after some things that have happened in her life. She tells me, in Mandarin The word for pear sounds the same as the word for disassociation ...2 days ago
- Cycle lanes are good for business, actually‘Cycling Works’ aims to show business support for citywide cycle infrastructure. This is an excerpt from our weekly environmental newsletter Future Proof. Sign up here. Last week, supermarket giant Foodstuffs lost its attempt to block the construction of a cycle lane outside Thorndon New World in Wellington. The Spinoff’s Wellington editor ...2 days ago
- The Unity Books bestseller chart for the week ending May 17The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington. AUCKLAND 1 Slow Productivity by Cal Newport (Penguin, $40) Taking out the top spot in Auckland this ...2 days ago
- Nuclear subs are coming to Australia. Now the Coalition wants reactors, too. We’re not ready for i...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Lowe, Emeritus Professor, School of Environment and Science, Griffith University For decades, Australia has exported uranium – but not used it, other than in the Lucas Heights research reactor. But change is coming. We now face a rapidly deepening commitment to ...2 days ago
- After 180 years, new clues are revealing just how general anaesthesia works in the brainSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam D Hines, Research fellow, Queensland University of Technology Sergey Mironov/Shutterstock Over 350 million surgeries are performed globally each year. For most of us, it’s likely at some point in our lives we’ll have to undergo a procedure that needs general ...2 days ago
- 'I can do much better': Green MP Julie Anne Genter promises to improve conduct"In future I should walk away," Green MP Julie Anne Genter says after complaints over an exchange in Parliament and from two members of the public. ...2 days ago
- Call to protect asylum seekers who may arrive in New Zealand by boatA group of more than 40 refugees, charities and advocates want better protections for asylum seekers arriving by boat. ...2 days ago
- Homo Pentecostus: on queer intimacies, religion, ancestry and the human need for connectionSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonathan Graffam, PhD Candidate in Theatre, Monash University Gianna Rizzo/Malthouse Music pumps; lights pulsate; two sweaty bodies sway together, touching, breathing in each other’s scent. A male body framed by downlight restlessly shifts between stances and gestures. He undresses. The intensity ...2 days ago
- Want to be buried on your own land, at sea or in a forest? A guide to unconventional send-offsSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sandra van der Laan, Professor of Accounting, University of Sydney Mtaya/Shutterstock At some point, you or someone else will need to make a decision about your “send-off”. Most Australians die in an institution, such as a hospital or aged care facility. ...2 days ago
- Vanuatu, MSG chief reaffirms support for FLNKS, blames France over unrestAsia Pacific Report Vanuatu Prime Minister Charlot Salwai — who is also Chairman of the Melanesian Spearhead Group — has reaffirmed MSG’s support of the pro-independence umbrella group Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS) stance opposing the French government’s constitutional bill “unfreezing” the New Caledonia Electoral Roll. It is ...2 days ago
- Blazing a trail: the Leonard family legacy in Māori televisionProducer Susan Leonard remembers her father Ernie, a pioneer of Māori television, and how his legacy lives on in Pathfinders. My father was a fabulous man. His name was Ernie Leonard and he started in TV in the 1970s when it was still glamorous – when TVNZ made behind the ...2 days ago
- Home detention for New Caledonia’s unrest ringleaders, Tiktok bannedBy Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk, and Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific journalist The suspected ringleaders of the unrest in New Caledonia have been placed in home detention and the social network TikTok has been banned as French security forces struggle to restore law and order. The French ...2 days ago
- Review finds big increase in multi-year government spends, use not always justifiedMulti-year appropriations - which give the government authority to spend money without reapplying annually - are loosening Parliament's control of the public purse, auditor-general says. ...2 days ago
- $63.6m for Surf Life Saving and Coastguard in Budget 2024"New Zealand has a tragically high drowning toll," Transport Minister Simeon Brown said at the announcement. ...2 days ago
- Dr. Eric Chuah Standing For Mayor Of TaurangaDr. Eric Chuah who stood for a centrist NZ political party in the October 2023 NZ Elections for Maungakiekie Auckland will stand as a candidate for Tauranga City Council Ward of Matua-=Otumoetai and Mayor of Tauranga. ...2 days ago
- How to enjoy a comedy festival in your own loungeIf you can’t get to the comedy fest, let us bring the comedy fest to you. This is an excerpt from our weekly pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here. The New Zealand International Comedy Festival is in full swing at the moment, with a veritable smorgasboard of comedy treats ...2 days ago
- Poll Shows Three Quarters Of Wellingtonians Oppose Airport SaleA new poll commissioned by Unions Wellington shows an overwhelming majority of Wellingtonians oppose the Council’s plan to sell the 34% public stake in Wellington Airport. ...2 days ago
- $63.6m boost for Surf Life Saving and Coastguard in Budget 2024"New Zealand has a tragically high drowning toll," Transport Minister Simeon Brown said at the announcement. ...2 days ago
- Nearly 1300 homes on hold amid government reviewNewly released documents show building has been paused on 690 KiwiBuild homes and 593 market homes. ...2 days ago
- At the heart of the budget is the sad truth the economy is weak. That’s one reason inflation will ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Aruna Sathanapally, Chief Executive, Grattan Institute, Grattan Institute A central focus of this week’s budget is the treasury’s forecast for inflation. By this time next year, inflation is projected to be back within the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target range. Inflation has ...2 days ago
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45.5 Labour/Greens against Nat 41.5
Looking good.
Wadable rivers and faecal contamination of water, a taste of things to come under Natz…
While this is great news fellows, Roy Morgan poll is so unreliable. We need to monitor the main stream polls for the next few months to see whether this trend is entrenched.
Roy Morgan smoothed over the last 5 polls looks like this:
Lab/Gr/NZF 50.0
Nats 45.8
Nats/Act/MP 48.1
This is probably a more accurate reflection of whats going on. National have had it if they poll 46% or less.
Or if the Maori Party pull the pin.
You can be reasonably sure that Winston is not going to go with LAB/GR unless LAB/GR as a block basically equal or exceed National in party vote.
Drink!
33,5 is good.
@Paul Please Standardistas try to talk in blocs….Lab/Gr 45.5
I agree. But re your comment above, L/G/NZF aren’t a bloc 😉
Funny. It was seen as a desperate move by Andrew Little to release Labour’s internal polling.
Polling which closely matched this poll.
Is this poll therefore also a desperate move by Labour???
Yep. I actually thought the UMR result was too good because it showed National support tanking. But here is a second poll result suggesting the same thing …
Labour desperately commissions their own rogue RM poll, lol.
Awesome news. Now to keep consolidating.
Great to see but let’s not get too excited Roy Morgan polls are notoriously unreliable.
So I see my comment about the usual trolls has some validation, they are running scared….
i heard last month that the Roy Morgan is a rogue, has clearly undependable methodology and is subject to spurious results that swing wildly and unreliably.
Or did it suddenly get better since then?
Don’t worry mate. Labour is still shit. Go back to sleep.
+ 1 + LOL
Read my comment and in particular:
“Of course this does show how unstable the Roy Morgan poll is. But I look forward to a continuous beat up by the media about how National is doomed.”
And also note how this result matches the recent UMR result.
And how about lefties celebrate good results instead of joining the right and damning Labour whenever the poll result is bad.
if Labour get rewarded for their watered down middle class focussed centrism they’ll never deliver what the nation needs.
So you prefer National’s free market neoliberalism because Labour isn’t quite pure enough?
Just look at where choosing the lesser of two evils has led the western world over the last few decades.
So do we give up? Let the right take over because they will wreck the place and so what?
I’ve given up on Labour, yes.
Put another way, your leg is rotting off due to gangrene but you keep getting prescribed with panadol because its better than nothing.
Shall we continue swallowing?
yet you use the same logic to explain why trump is your man mr 5ppm – the hypocrisy is smelly like rot.
I don’t get to vote in the US elections, I do however get to say who would be less shite for NZ and that is Trump.
I’m happy to say that about Labour too if the consistency makes you happier – in some areas, Labour would be less shite for NZ than National.
CV’s wanting the temp to rise in Dunedin. That’s why he attacks the MOU.
Your move to mention the MOU; I didn’t.
The right have taken over regardless of the result.
So crawling up Trump’s narcissistic, spoilt, racist, misogynistic, wide boy’s arse is the way to correct things then CV ?
Haha do I detect your anal fixation mate
Like I said, I don’t get a vote in the US elections, and here in NZ I refuse to support stuck in the 20th century neoliberal political parties.
Also I have no taste for Labour’s free market free trade neoliberalism either.
CV your bitter twisted commentary will get you no where. At best you will attract a small band of fellow eeyore’s. But for what point?
You prefer the flavour of Labour’s free market free trade neoliberalism to National’s free market free trade neoliberalism?
Well, good for you, I hope you enjoy your choice.
Greens or Mana
Out of the two, Mana without blinking.
“So you prefer National’s free market neoliberalism..?”
Are you taking the piss?
No, your still trying to hold on, and its dripping down your leg. srylands
How odd. You say Little is centrist, yet he dismissed centrism just this week. According to most baffled commentators Little is too concerned with micro-constituencies at the expense of the general centre, previously seduced by Key’s new mate, Helen Clark.
That’ll not stop CV seeing Andrew Little as a rightwing monster though.
As a middling white collar centrist who want last to the end of 2017, but yeah, approx same thing
“Little is too concerned with micro-constituencies ”
Of course he is concerned with micro-constituencies. One in particular.
The people who think he is competent to be the New Zealand Prime Minister. That is about as “micro” as you can get.
Viper nothing can be worse than what we have now, the greed, the lies, the incompetence, the loss of privacy, the over regulating, the transfer of our assets to the rich and the growing inequalities doesn’t sound like a brighter future the one we were all promised
I agree Micky ,Where do these plonker come from ,
The thing we’re really missing is long Herald columns on how the Gnats need to lift their game and how a lousy leader like Key can improve by moving to the centre.
Just good when it shows the left doing good
The trolls arrive.
Confirmation bias makes life a happier more agreeable place, but even I know that the massive ups and downs of this poll during a month of just more of the same political grind is not warranted.
Safe to say that Labour has strengthened somewhat and National has weakened somewhat, but not by the large absolute numbers suggested.
Agreed.
Honestly this was my first thought too, lol.
i ve always said lololololo Roy Morgans polls are the most accurate reliable trust worthy polls out there Roy employs the most up to date methodology
lets give thanks to the gods of cow shit and explosive diarrhea
Actually until very recently (ie. July) RM was on trend with no major rogues. (and unlike every other polling company, they poll regularly)
This is a believable dive for National, if further polling bears it out. It could be a rogue, or it could be reflective of a change in trend.
It’s well known the National government’s performance is wedded to John Key’s performance so perhaps this slump, according to Roy Morgan, is down to Key not doing so well on the international stage.
Well , I dunno so much ,… Key was booed twice in quick succession not so long ago at some very public venues – a ruby league match and the LGBT festival. And while that in itself isnt necessarily a huge indicator , there are now a lot of people up and down this country who are under no illusion about John Key….
I cite Northland which Winston Peters comfortably took from an assumed ‘ safe ‘ National seat for example…
Just how much of this popularity thing about Key is a media / PR construct remains to be seen. There are a lot of hurting people in this country now as a direct result of National party policy.
Agree. The many people who’ve had their dreams crushed by this government know what is happening, but are they aware there is an alternative?
You are right to point to Key’s many recent defeats because in the course of history they will be relevant:
Northland
the Lockwood flag
TPPA
brown-nosing Helen Clark’s UN bid
the UN security council speakamathon
surge in NZ crime
surge in NZ homelessness
I was disturbed yesterday how easily one of his senior ministers dismissed Duncan Garner’s questions on the Vancouver tax yesterday. All she (Bennett) had to do was say she’d just come out of a meeting and hadn’t seen the data.
Classic Key there. Hopefully the many people under housing stress will see through it.
dont forget explosive diarrhea
“brown-nosing Helen Clark’s UN bid”.
What on earth are you talking about? He is trying to help Helen because he thinks it would be useful for New Zealand.
Unfortunately the people at the UN who have seen her in action aren’t at all keen on the idea.
Still John has helped her meet some major political figures. He introduced her to Theresa May and to Barack Obama. That must have been a thrill for her.
With “Northland” Winston spotted the fact that NZF scored 4000 odd party votes, in 2014, without even fielding a candidate, and was smart enough to figure from that that the seat was far from safe. Otherwise he would not have run.
And I guess conversely ,… National either didn’t spot that or they were too cocksure of themselves to bother standing an experienced candidate – hence the unprecedented moves by Key et all to put in a showing for Northland – either way it reflected poorly on Dildo Joyce who was campaign manager….
Wasn’t it the Colmar Brunton poll which was the reason for the UMR data release which had National on 48% and Labour on 26% not the Roy Morgan Poll?
CB had National at 48%. The UMR had them at 40% which honestly seemed to be too low but this RM backs it up …
1 in 20 polls are rogue. So the question is was the CB result rogue or accurate? Little and UMR believed it was rogue and showed evidence for National doing much worse and Labour doing better. Now we have another piece of evidence from the RM indicating National doing worse and Labour doing better. But RM polls fluctuate. So we probably need a few more results to be sure that the public are changing their minds about Key, National etc.
Also in some ways it doesn’t matter so much what the polls say. They are all so close. What they indicate is with hard work, good policies and good campaigning the Green/Labour left wing block can do well next year.
It really doesn’t matter what the absolute poll numbers are and how they vary between each pollster. As long as each one sticks to the same methodology each time, then the most significant thing is how each one is trending.
Crucially what we need to know is if ALL the various polls are trending in the same direction by similar amounts.
If not, then it’s probably just noise.
Swordfish is pretty confident that the polls this year show National down in general and the so-called “Oppo block” up.
I’ve heard of 3 consecutive UMR polls trending in favour of Labour/Greens and away from National.
Good
And when is Andrew going to release them?
If they are so good he will obviously want the public to know.
On the other hand if they are kept secret we can reasonably assume that they show he is really in the crap.
Yes, because letting right wing trolls set his agenda is sure to be a winning strategy. I wonder why no-one thought of it before.
Which is what I imagined was the case; but I’ll happily defer to the imitable swordfish.
I like this poll because it confirms my biases!
More seriously, this is in line with multiple UMR polls, not just one.
Worth waiting to see if the trend is confirmed by the more conservative polls though, even if they disagree with the exact numbers.
Does look like the people saying RM was going downhill are possibly right if not though.
if the volatility of all polls recently should have taught us anything it would be to wait for a consistent trend to emerge
Agreed but Labour got smashed over because of the results of one poll. So what are we meant to do? And besides there are two poll results her suggesting that National’s support has been hit big time.
More than one
and two previous showed unrealistic support for the gov…..what are we meant to do?…wait for the consistent trend before we beat/talk ourselves up, after all they are not the poll that counts in any case
You did see the comment in the poll that they were the lowest National has been since September 2013. That is exactly 3 years ago. Now who was it that was re-elected the following year?
With the Labour Party’s leader ability to mess things up I can’t see the surge lasting. They have him hidden away overseas at the moment. I don’t think they will be able to keep him out of sight for another 12 months, which is probably what is needed.
No trolls yet….
They must have gone to regroup and get their spin/lies/lines from Farrar, Hooton and Williams.
Farrar will be spiking the drinks of young Nats. Hooton will be pouring over the latest school zone boundary changes. And Williams will be sobbing between Rachael McGregor’s naked legs.
Farrar will have already known. He’s too good not to have smelt any change (if there is one). MS is correct, there are potential winds of change, but the RM is notoriously fickle.
No trolls yet? Nope, I’ll leave you guys to bask in the glory of the poll you said last time was rigged and blatantly wrong.
Bring on the change of Government next year! This poll suggests the inevitable landslide is on the way.
Yay!
Because of Daylight Saving the TC instructions and script arrive an hour later.
+1
!
@ Paul LOL
While Key may be ‘ popular’,… Key is not the entirety of the National party. And it reflects in his Ministers rating among certain of the business / banking community as was shown in the NZ Herald today. The implication was there could be some reshuffling.
But the problem is with playing political musical chairs in the neo liberal camp is that the sows ear remains just that : a sows ear.
Agreed. Also, Key’s net approval ratings are negative and have been for some time. I gather he is below Helen Clark at the same stage of Labour’s third term last time (2007), so maybe we are finally getting some traction.
Also remember that Helen Clark at that time was being attacked in full spin mode and criticised as an arrogant dictator that couldn’t be trusted, so really John Key is much less popular because the media isn’t blindly repeating attack lines against the PM this time.
Yeah Matthew in 2006-2008 it was the” Nanny State” and” Ditch the Bitch and to quote John Key it was communism by stealth.
Key has never had to face the onslaught and vicious campaign that the last Labour government endured in fact since being in office he has encouraged this type of attack through Cameron Slater to smear his opponents.
Its been a dream run for the National party.
This result pretty much confirms that 50%+ National result from a few polls ago was an outlier. There was nothing at the time to justify such a massive peak (despite Roy Morgan’s feeble attempts to pin it on the 1B infrastructure fund that sunk without a trace 3 days after it was announced), and nothing since then that would justify this massive drop if that were to be a true result.
I suspect this one is probably also an outlier, to a lesser extent, in the other direction.
So true National number around 44% to 45%? That seems about right to me. However it seems that Labour’s UMR internal polling has had National lower than that for a while now.
My feeling is 43% and Labour on 30-31%.
Yep I can buy those numbers.
And I would put Greens on 11% actual, and the numbers of “don’t know/won’t say” quite high.
However, I would say that for this Government, Sept/Oct/Nov will prove to be the low water mark for National’s 3rd term.
Why will this be the low point for the Nats CV? What will change so that the public think better of John Key and the Nats? Is this assertion based on some logic or is it what you hope will happen? Also I see it is your assertion further down the thread that if the Nats go into coalition with NZ First that will set them up for a 5th term. Is there some underlying logic to that assertion or is this another ‘hope’ you have.
Wait and see. Happy to be proven wrong. However, the NATs will be pulling out all the stops from February next year, and they will be able to see an opportunity to get 5 terms if they can get out of their own way and work with NZ First.
National are getting any uncomfortable business out of the way in 2016. Key learn’t politics from the master (Helen Clark), and 2017 will be portrayed as a contest between competence (National) and the scary left. Joyce used that narrative this morning on the radio with Jacinda Ardern, and she bit hard.
EXACTLY
Thank grod someone gets the National game plan.
More bad stinking news will be dumped on the nation’s doorstep over the next month or two to clear the way for National’s 2017 re-election campaign.
Hence I feel that this period will be “low water mark” for National’s polling, and they will recover next year.
if national cant win mt roskill there toast given they won the party vote last election mt roskill is a marginal electorate that will determine the outcome of the 2017 election
There is merit to your perspective. However Goff had an 8100 majority last election which is sizeable. Normally that would make Mt Roskill a secure seat.
However yes, when you do at the figures, you can see that National Party voters make up most of that majority.
In my mind it comes down to whether or not National have someone well known and credible to put up in that seat as their candidate.
I grew up in Mt Roskill, and my mother still lives in the electorate. It is working class Labour territory, and has virtually always been. If National win by-election in Mt Roskill, Labour are toast.
In your view, how did National get 2,000 more party votes than Labour last election.
Mt Rokill isn’t unique in that. There are many Labour voters who want a National government, but can’t stomach a local National MP.
polls are bullshit nz people love john key
Quite possibly – here’s an older story from July regarding a secret UMR poll discussed by Matthew Hooton, presumably a National one:
http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2016/07/14/matthew-hooton-on-secret-umr-poll/
N 42
L 28
G 16
NZF 10
This shows the Nats sliding quite some time ago, and it’s more about where the votes are going between the other 3 biggest parties.
To get a change of government Labour must take support from National thats a fact even with MMP and the MOU and move into the centre and consolidate and climb to match National and move ahead to a position of strength and authority.
Looks like Labour is attracting support in this poll from the Greens and NZF which looks good as Labours numbers have climbed closer to the government but its the overall trend in these polls especially in the next 6 months that will show if Labour can defy the mindset of a fourth term for the government that is already being sold as a forgone conclusion.
If Labour can climb to match National on these numbers and stay there and Nationals polling tells them the gap has narrowed then it may have an effect on the timing of the next election and the sweeteners offered in the next budget.
Yeah. Not so much. Did anyone see Little on Brekkie Telly this morning in Gisborne? His specs were fogged up and he looked like a drowned rat. If he can’t even organise a brolly and a raincoat, how can he organise being the next PM? The bloke is a clown.
Doesn’t have enough of that good old fashioned slickness and sleaze for your liking?
That’s what Keys there for, for folk like you to vote for… mind you , I notice the little fella’s hairlines receding somewhat these days… and I swear ,… the little fella’s nose has grown over the last 9 years as well…
Have you ever met Key? I doubt it. Key is genuinely likeable. He is relaxed and affable. He has been underestimated (as Clark was) for 10 years, and has seen off how many Opposition leaders? The irrational dislike (bordering on racist rhetoric in your post) towards Key is directly proportional to his success and his detractors frustration at that success.
Funny how you say Key is ‘affable ,like-able ‘ …I find that quite amusing , because that certainly hasn’t been the attitude demonstrated to any outside of his ‘particular’ worldview or social set…now then ,… just what did he say about NZ workers again?… lazy , drug addled ?… and about those who ‘ chose’ to be poor… seems he cant really correlate the difference between the oppressive effects of his policy’s and just why they happen to be poor in Keys ‘ brighter future’ …and his pig shit deliberate ignorance of working people and who they really are is glaringly obvious you smug shit.
And if John Key actually gave a shit he wouldn’t have introduced the 90 day trial period , would he now , gorm?
He cant even put his weight behind abolishing zero hour contracts – Unite union had to campaign for that , now , didn’t they .
Key would rather have whole family’s in poverty working their bloody arse off for a shitty minimal wage doing two jobs because that means his big business mates get to pocket what should have gone into feeding those working poor family’s children , eh Einstein.
Seems like the Double Dipper from Dipton has the same sort of disease, – as well as social climber wannabe and liar Paula Bennett – expounding the same sort of obnoxious attitudes to any who happen to be poorer than them,
Until that day when you stop kidding yourself and realize whole family’s sleeping in vans and garages is a deliberate result of your hero Keys policy’s will be the day you have something worth saying.
And btw – where did I mention ‘race’ ?… are you ignorant of the term Pinocchio – used to define a liar whose nose grows when he/ she lies?
Does everything have to be spelt out to you ?
You appear to be suffering from a number of delusions. And from a rather irrational hatred of one side of the political divide. Have you given any serious consideration to why, if you are even remotely right, has Key and his government won 3 straight elections with increasing popularity? Are you fellow NZ’ers really that stupid? Or, as I suspect, you’re just plain wrong.
WK That little guy with receding hair (Key) I call “snakes” will say about his balding head, “oh you cant have hair and brains together.”
A vacuous statement from Sam C there! What a stupid way of rating anyone – taking pathetic to the next level…
Ad hominem
Sam C is (unfortunately) right to point this out.
Personal presentation of the leader is important. That’s why Helen had her official portrait photoshopped, to give her straight white teeth and a nice haircut, and get rid of the worst of her wrinkles etc. It’s rather ridiculous if you tour Parliament and see the official historical photos of the members of each government, headed by the PM. In 1999-2002 she has a real photo of her. For 2002-2005 and 2005-2008, she’s got this photoshopped one, and it looks like a different person entirely, when contrasted against her 1999-2002 photo.
It’s why Phil Goff foolishly thought to dye his hair brown while he was the leader.
Little’s poor personal appearance on some outings ultimately gets mixed in with people’s general impression of him. Very few people would come out and say what Sam C has said in this post, nor would they fail to vote for him because he was wet one time on TV, but it all stirs around in the general impressions people have of the leader and how competent they are.
It’s an easy thing to fix, so it should be fixed.
“Helen had her official portrait photoshopped”
What do you mean, “photoshopped”? She assured us at the time that it was a genuine photo and that no alterations had been made.
You aren’t trying to tell us that she lied about it are you?
Surely not. St Helen would never have done anything of the sort.
It is a sensible thing to do though. Look at how Norman Kirk got taken seriously when he got a proper haircut and good suits.
Lange did the same and it made an enormous difference.
“What do you mean, “photoshopped”? She assured us at the time that it was a genuine photo and that no alterations had been made.”
Citation.
I have just noticed this. Sorry for the delay.
I can’t find on line a statement by Helen saying this, so perhaps my memory is misleading me.
The closest I found was a statement by the photographer claiming that there hadn’t been any photo-shopping and the only things that were done were that he used careful lighting and that she wore a little more makeup that usual.
Quite how that would straighten her teeth was not clear.
Absolute rubbish.
Are you trying to tell me Winston Churchill who was obese, relatively old and often drunk needed to have his image swept up?
And so what if someones caught out in the rain ? It RAINS A LOT IN NZ.
The original post was majoring on minors . And anyone with half a brain is more interested in what the person has to say than how they look.
The original poster was more concerned with scoring points in trying to ridicule Little on childish drivel than providing any real critique of the mans policy’s. Maybe the persons spent far too much time reading fashion magazines and paparazzi articles.
Because the main post doesn’t have it…
Translating the indication from this poll into numbers in the house, assuming all parties currently in parliament win electorate seats:
Labour (41) + Greens (15) + NZ First (10) = 66 government MPs
UF (1) + Māori (2) = 3 cross-bench MPs (They might want in to a govt too if the general election comes out roughly like this, but functionally it doesn’t matter if they do or not- NZF is still needed to pass legislation)
National (51) + ACT (1) = 52 opposition MPs
121 MPs total (UF is the overhang, so you can subtract them if you want to assume they lose their electorate)
Assuming no micro parties win any electorates, this changes to:
Labour (42) + Greens (15) + NZ First (11) = 68 govt MPs
National = 52 opposition MPs
Assuming MANA wins an electorate seat doesn’t allow Labour and the Greens an option to bypass NZF unless they do better than this at the general election. (56+2+1+1 = 60/122)
As always, polls aren’t accurate enough to assume this is anything more than an indication and the trend is what’s important, but it is useful to look it at in terms of “what kind of a majority would this result give if it were in the general elections.”
I used http://www.elections.org.nz/voting-system/mmp-voting-system/mmp-seat-allocation-calculator for those who are curious to try their own assumptions.
Yeah, the Left “coalition of constituencies” are going to hose in next election. Put your placards down now, it is a foregone conclusion.
Helen Clarke had ‘ Picturegate ‘ as her horrific scandal,… whereas Pinocchio has these ,…..
https://offkey.hackpad.com/Honest-John-NgiWfXTpnvD
https://offkey.hackpad.com/ep/group/DTAANMceniq
More interesting shenanigans from the little fella. Quite formidable in content you’ll have to admit,….eh.
Or NZF go with the nats and it’s three more years…
But it’s not “three more years”.
Any National – NZ First government, with NZFirst on 8-10% of the vote, would look very different from the current governing arrangement.
It would not surprise me if Winston insisted that the Maori Party stay out of government, as well as Act and UF, for example.
And that’s really the takeaway from these, and other recent polls, I think.
The current National governing arrangement is likely done at the next election, whether that means a new PM or not.
Exactly.
And it would set National up for a fifth term.
National a fifth term ? Well here’s hoping CV…….if only to answer your wrecking ball bitterness. On the other hand the best answer to your ‘distress’ might be to grow up a tad.
Good comment. I think their is enough evidence showing that National cannot govern with the current group of support partners and will need NZ First to back the Nats not Labour/Greens if it will continue to be in government.
But then the public mood could shift again in the next 12 months, either with or against the trend -changing the support partner equation again.
Change is coming I think -the status quo is over…..
And, just like the National/NZ1st government of the 1990s would collapse in less than 2 years and probablt in less than one which means we’d then either have a new general election or Labour/Greens/NZ1st step up to the plate and govern without National.
IMO, NZ1st should stay well away from going into coalition with National.
NZ First should stay well away from Parliament!
No, it’s National that should stay away from parliament as they’re a bunch of psychopaths.
“just like the National/NZ1st government of the 1990s would collapse in less than 2 years”
You obviously must have observed an election that no-one else did. The 1996-1999 National led Government went to full term. It certainly didn’t collapse.
It was only the New Zealand First Party that split down the middle. The Maori seat members decided they were tired of being treated like dirt by their leader.
The National-led government went full term. The National-NZFirst government, which is what he actually said, did not.
I would consider that highly unlikely given how NZF is currently positioning itself on policy and talking about the government, but it isn’t completely out of the realm of possibility I suppose.
Much more likely they’re just refusing to commit to supporting anyone pre-election because they believe it would give them more leverage with Labour, who they have a better record at forming governments with, and who their policies more closely align with.
I’d even consider it a better probability that NZF supports Labour and the Greens into government (or abstains on confidence/supply) but then stays on the cross-benches and votes their conscience on bills than that they support the Nats. (If we didn’t know that Winston loves being a minister, I would actually say that strategically not being exactly in government but being needed for every bill is actually a stronger position for NZF)
But Lanth is right that if they did go with the Nats, it would be a drastically different government than the current one. It would probably need to be more centrist, and would have NZF in significant ministerial posts, and we would get a lot less liberal policy out of National than we do currently, because NZF wouldn’t support it. (For example, no punts on anything even resembling a republic)
No, Winston won’t go with National. Matthew Whitehead is correct when he said “Much more likely they’re just refusing to commit to supporting anyone pre-election because they believe it would give them more leverage with Labour, who they have a better record at forming governments with, and who their policies more closely align with.”
Andrew Little: “Let the voters decide, but we are the party of change, the Greens are a party of change, that’s what we are committed to, lets see what the voters turn up at the parliament and if we are in a position to do so, we will talk to those interested in fundamentally changing what the story is now.. We know who those parties of change are, right now.”
“They’ve [Maori Party] shackled themselves to the National government for the last 8 years, they are as responsible as any National mp for the failure of people to get affordable houses, a decent education and all those other issues.. They’re not, right now if I think about the radar, about the parties of change, they are not on it”
Winston Peters said “We want dramatic economic and social change to regain what this country used to have to number one number 2 first world status as a world economic and social performer, we’ve lost that, and we haven’t given up hope of getting it back again”
Waatea 5th Estate – Labour vs NZ First – the fight for Maori votes
<a href="http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2016/08/30/waatea-5th-estate-labour-vs-nz-first-the-fight-for-maori-votes/
How about a shift that resulted in
L/G/Mp/Mana 61 seats
NZF 8 seats
N/Act 51 seats
No UF
🙂
Certainly not out of the question. Brave of you to suggest the Mp could buddy up with Labour. Could very well be on the cards I say.
Can’t see any reason why the Mp couldn’t support Labour with a confidence and supply agreement.
Except that Labour have made it clear that they intend to take all the Maori Seats and see the Maori Party extinguished out of existence next election.
I think it comes down to whether the MP MPs (annoying acronym) would be given any ministerial responsibility, or not.
Labour will obviously want to keep them cordial, in case they need to rely on their votes in future years. But would they give them any ministerial postings, or would the Labour maori caucus demand to keep them all for themselves? National don’t have that same sort of tension in their own caucus so it’s easier for them to give trinkets to the MP MPs.
True, but if it were the difference between Labour forming govt or not, that’s a pretty strong incentive to be inclusive.
I use Mp not MP.
Sure, I was envisioning an outcome where the Mp are purely an optional bolt-on for a Labour-led government. I think the Mp would only agree to C&S if they got some ministerial action, and I’m not sure that the Labour Maori MPs would be happy with that.
Sure, that’s doable.
All it takes to get in the general neighbourhood is to assume a couple more electorate wins for the Māori bloc and about a 2-3 point shift from National to Labour and the Greens. (it’s easier if the shift is to the Greens, but more likely it would be split)
This scenario is a .5 shift from Others and a 2.5 shift from the National Party from the RM poll to bump the greens up to 15%, and an assumption that Mana gains one electorate seat and the Maori Party gain 2 extra, for 3 total.
Once you do that, it’s irrelevant whether you lose UF and ACT.
Labour (41) + Greens (18) = 59 core government MPs
MANA (1) + Māori (3) + NZ First (10) + UF (1) = 15 Cross Bench/additional government MPs
National Party (48) + ACT (1) = 49 Opposition MPs
123 total MPs.
Under such a counterfactual, Labour and the Greens could pass bills in three likely ways- with NZF, with MANA and Māori Party support, or with Māori and UF support. (it works equally well with the assumption that the Māori Party wins only 1 electorate iirc)
Chris’ assumption that it’s brave is interesting. The Greens are the party in Parliament that traditionally best matches the Māori Party’s voting record, so it’s actually quite natural that they would prefer to be in a Labour-Green coalition, if they can overcome the historical bad blood with Labour. They have made comments to the effect of that they would be part of every government going forward back when they first allied with National, and Marama Fox has said similar things about being able to work with Labour recently, (I believe she phrased it slightly more colourfully 😉 ) so I expect that’s still their plan.
The issue is whether Labour would cut them a second-rate deal for being a universal coalition partner like UF is, or whether they would force them onto the cross benches due to bad blood, but Little’s comments about wanting as inclusive a government as possible suggest they would be open to include the Māori Party if negotiations are actually done in good faith on both sides, so if the Greens and/or Labour can pull off a 3-point shift from the indicated support in this poll to the general election and either (a) MANA wins a seat, (b) the hair loses Ohariu, or (c) the hologram loses Epsom, that’s a real possibility. Just remember, 3 points is a lot in politics.
NZF’s vote would have to drop for it to work, which seems the least plausible shift.
In your scenario wouldn’t Nact form govt with NZF, Mp, UF? Which brings up the issue of how NZ governments get formed and who had what rights when it could go either way.
I’m on my phone, will have a play with calculator later.
NZF’s vote doesn’t need to drop for them to not be necessary to form a government. It’s equally plausible that the gain in support comes National, or simply people who weren’t likely voters previously. (which looks like it coming from everyone else, because we never get the “unlikely voters” or “I’ll vote, but I don’t know who for yet” numbers included)
I posted a scenario below with the numbers on how L/G could govern without NZF.
https://thestandard.org.nz/latest-roy-morgan-poll-labour-surges/#comment-1237926
“The Greens are the party in Parliament that traditionally best matches the Māori Party’s voting record, so it’s actually quite natural that they would prefer to be in a Labour-Green coalition, if they can overcome the historical bad blood with Labour.”
Absolutely. I said brave because suggesting even the possibility on here brings vitriol at insane levels, which is completely ironic given the Mp are not neo-lib. That vitriol obviously comes from those who’re very close to Labour and are no doubt supporters of what CV said above about blowing the Mp to bits. Really dumb strategy for Labour because you’d think they’d be grateful for the support they very well may need depending on the numbers. Labour wants to punish the Mp but its analysis is flawed when you look at the reasons why the Mp helped prop up the nats. The proper question to ask is whether the Mp are neo-lib and the answer is plainly no. So if even if the Mp see the errors of their ways and pull the pin with Key, Labour’s dumb strategy would be to still punish them for being naive in the past, not because its political values are too foreign from their own. But hey, Labour’s got a strong history in blowing off coalition partners and destroying what little hope of winning they had anyway. Doesn’t look like 2017’s going to be any different. Stupid bastards.
Actually the approach Labour has taken to working together with both the Greens and New Zealand First is both new and promising, and makes them look like a government in waiting.
Labour has been careful to essentially grade their co-operation based on how willing to oppose the government each party has been, so the Māori Party hasn’t been outright attacked like it was under Clark, but Labour is also saying, we’re not sure a vote for them will change the government, so ideally vote for Labour or the Greens. Unlike National, Labour has actually gotten to understand MMP even better in opposition.
That message may change if the Māori Party actually ever decided to clear up who they’d give preference to if they held the balance of power, but I think like NZF they believe that’s not a winning strategy.
Can’t disagree with what you’re saying about the Greens and perhaps NZF, but it doesn’t explain Labour’s apparent hatred of the Mp or whether or not they’re going to try to shaft Mana like they did last time. Even with NZF onboard Labour may still need either Mana or the Mp or both so their approach to the Mp is misguided and strategically wrong. The Mp is not the enemy – they’re are/were naive, ill-informed, sell outs or what ever but they’re not the enemy. Labour’s acting as if they are. And if Labour wants to try to fuck Mana over again then that’s equally stupid.
Well said Matthew Whitehead.
“Labour has been careful to essentially grade their co-operation based on how willing to oppose the government each party has been, so the Māori Party hasn’t been outright attacked like it was under Clark, but Labour is also saying, we’re not sure a vote for them will change the government”
Spot on Matthew.
Andrew Little: “I’m saying that we will work with parties that are serious about changing the government and getting a change that’s going to give everybody a better chance including Maori.”
Willy Jackson: “So you’re not ruling out the Maori party?”
Andrew Little: “Well, I don’t see that… they’ve been shackled to the National government for the last 8 years… I can’t see.. they don’t represent, to me the Maori party don’t represent change, in the end the voters will decide the make up of parliament, but we will campaign, I will campaign on, if you want to change what’s happening now, you got to change the government, so you’ve got to vote for the party of change”
(Willy Jackson continually interrupted Andrew Little when he spoke.)
Andrew Little: “Let the voters decide, but we are the party of change, the Greens are a party of change, that’s what we are committed to, lets see what the voters turn up at the parliament and if we are in a position to do so, we will talk to those interested in fundamentally changing what the story is now.. We know who those parties of change are, right now.”
“They’ve [Maori Party] shackled themselves to the National government for the last 8 years, they are as responsible as any National mp for the failure of people to get affordable houses, a decent education and all those other issues.. They’re not, right now if I think about the radar, about the parties of change, they are not on it”
Winston Peters said “We want dramatic economic and social change to regain what this country used to have to number one number 2 first world status as a world economic and social performer, we’ve lost that, and we haven’t given up hope of getting it back again”
Waatea 5th Estate – Labour vs NZ First – the fight for Maori votes
<a href="http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2016/08/30/waatea-5th-estate-labour-vs-nz-first-the-fight-for-maori-votes/
Judging by what Winston Peter’s said, quite frankly, anyone who still thinks Winston Peters will support this National government just isn’t listening.
Frank Macskasy from the Daily Blog has some interesting statistics regarding John Keys waning popularity. Well worth a read. It may indicate the changing mood among voters.
‘The slow dismantling of a Prime Minister – downward’ … – The Daily Blog May 25th 2016
This site wont let me post the link for some reason , so the above will have to suffice.
Here’s another try then :
thedailyblog.co.nz/…/the-slow-dismantling-of-a-prime-minister-downward-slide-conti..
Interesting read…
http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2016/05/25/the-slow-dismantling-of-a-prime-minister-downward-slide-continues/
Frank is right. The worm has turned. Key is not the political force he once was. The glib smiles, selfies, tom foolery are no longer working. His inaction on too many fronts has turned that superficial niceness that once was a strength to his biggest weakness -he is seen more and more as ineffectual and a poor leader, unable to effectively manage the major challenges the country faces.
The housing crisis has been his Waterloo. He denied this was a problem for too long, did nothing effective to deal with it and now it is too late. As Frank said in May housing is like a behemoth super tanker that cannot be turned around quickly. Well it is nearly October and we are one year out from the election. It is too late for Key -he has been exposed. He is the emperor with no clothes….
Exactly. The ‘ market’ doesn’t have a social conscience or contract , therefore the neo liberals foolishness ends up entrapping them by their own ideology.They have no answers for the inevitable devolution of a society that is the direct result and consequence of their small govt , ‘leave it to market forces’ dogma…
There are very sound reasons for having a regulated economy and one of them is to prevent opportunists from rorting and price gouging in an unethical manner. To the neo liberal it is all ‘business as usual’… until , like Key and his govt , the chickens come home to roost and then those chickens start to become restless.
And this is what these polls are indicating.
People waking up possibly, not being gamed anymore by pest free new zealand and funding the rail loop 10 years too late. You cannot fool all the people all the time. Fingers crossed.
As Harold Wilson once said, “A week is a long time in politics”.
And there are fifty-plus ‘long times’ until the election.
Where are all the Nats here who were so recently desperately clinging to the last Colmar Brunton poll like it was an upturned life raft. Sharks are circling the “Team Me” crew!
Yes RM is all over the place but it’s the overall poll trends is what you look at.
Don’t worry, I still believe that John Key will win a fourth term
So Key might just lose in spite of silly house price rises which typically deceive the people into believing they are rich and so vote for the incumbent no matter who it is
The risk for Labour is doing something silly too. A moment of madness where the leader apologises for being a man, or one of the team dumps on the rest, or some such ……… keep calm Labour, keep very calm
the best thing every no in can do is get on board national has buckets of money if we want change john boy gone that takes work phone banking door knocking twittering face book that monetary imbalance can be
countered with numbers feet on the ground
Amazing what a naked man on a rug can do for a party’s popularity. I reckon the go might one of those cheeky fund raising calenders. A tastefully posed front bencher for every month from now till the election. Who wouldn’t want that on the kitchen wall?
Oh dear lord…
The trolls arrive.
What has Farrar told them to say……
I wouldn’t call you a troll…more like a wannabe 🙂
The outgoing PM went on attack mode last time a poll was released, he looked foolish, singing his own praises
The incoming PM told us internal polling suggested a different story, and he was correct.
Will the media give this latest poll any coverage as public opinion continues to drop for the outgoing government? Or will they attempt to suppress this information as it may not sit well with their own networks agendas?
Get out of here with your doom and nay-saying 🙂
What the deuce?
Site is a bit flakey today.
Now on Stuff
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/84729941/labour-up-8-per-cent-in-latest-roy-morgan-poll-but-nz-first-still-holds-the-power
Following on from Matthew’s comment above, here’s how it might look,
Today’s numbers
And here’s how it might look if National dropped 1%, UF lost their seat, NZF dropped 1%, Labour increased 1%, Greens increased 1%, and Mana gained 1 seat. This would allow a L/G coalition to govern without NZF but using C and S from the Mp and Mana (or whatever arrangement they agree to).
There is no allowance for margins of error in that, but it’s interesting to consider that we don’t necessarily have to buy into the narrative being pushed that NZF will automatically hold the balance of power.
The scenario I gave above doesn’t give National + ACT + UF + NZF enough votes to pass anything, as Labour + Greens + Māori + MANA can pass bills, which by definition means that at least one of those parties would need to be peeled off to form an alternative government. So National would need a five-headed alliance (ie. Nats, ACT, UF, NZF, and the Māori Party) moving in lockstep to govern under any 3% shift towards Labour and the Greens that also gave a seat to MANA. To eliminate that possibility, the coalition parties would need to get 60 seats between them, (and MANA would need to get in ofc) which is a big ask.
The shift away from NZF you outline is also within the realm of possibility, but I would caution against assuming their numbers will drop based on current performance. NZF has been doing pretty well at making the government look fooling and I’m not sure I see any reason why they’re only sitting on 8% in this poll, other than the traditional variability of polls for medium-sized parties. (although if 8% is real, that’s beginning to approach the point at which they’re a small party again)
I think Winstons age and inability to connect with the younger generations is his main barrier in gaining a proper foothold of percentage in NZ.
He’s popular with his supporter base and he actually does try to do some good, I do think he deserves more seats/say in NZ’s affairs.
Plus he said hello in Kuala Lumpar once, when I did a full shout out in a busy airport OI Winnie how the fuck are ya! he just similed carried on. Lookin sharp I might say in a dressed for the part kind of way as foreign minister back then I think he was.
NZ First has a strong and lively youth division
Ha!
Roy Morgans since early 2015:
L+G = Labour-Green aggregate
Oppo = Lab+Green+NZF+IMP
Nat/L+G = National’s percentage point lead over Labour-Green aggregate (numbers in bold indicate polls where L+G led Nat)
Govt = Nat+ACT+Maori+UF
Govt/L+G = Govt Bloc’s percentage point lead over Labour-Green aggregate (numbers in bold indicate polls where L+G led Govt Bloc)
Right = Govt Bloc + Cons
O/G = Govt Bloc’s percentage point lead over Oppo Bloc (numbers in bold indicate polls where Oppo Bloc led Govt Bloc)
(Figures are rounded for simplicity. Percentage Point gaps between Blocs are calculated from precise figures and then rounded)
…….L+G ….. NZF …. Oppo …. Nat …. Nat/L+G …. Govt …. Govt/L+G …. Right ….O/G
2014 General Election
………36…………9…………46……….47…………11……………49…………..13……………53……………3
Roy Morgan Polls
2015
Jan …37 …….. 6 ………..43 ………. 52 ………. 15 ………….. 55 ……….. 18 ………… 57 ………… 12
Feb …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 49 ………. 7 ……………. 50 …………. 8 ………… 52 …………. 2
Mar …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 47 ………. 5 ……………. 50 …………. 8 ……….. 51 ………… 2
Apr ….41 …….. 9 ………..50 ………. 46 ……….. 5 ……………. 48 …………. 7 ………… 49 ……… 2
May ..36 ……… 6 ………..42 ………. 54 ……….. 18 ………….. 56 ……….. 20 ………… 57 ……… 14
Jun …39 ………. 7 ………..46 ………. 50 ………… 11 ………….. 52 ……….. 13 ………… 53 ……… 6
Jul …. 45 ………. 7 ………..52 ………. 43 …………. 2 ………… 45 …………. = ……….. 47 ………. 7
Aug …38 ………. 8 ………..47 ………. 51 ………… 13 ……………. 53 ……….. 15 …………. 53 ……… 6
Sep ….46 ………. 6 ………..52 ………. 45 ………… 2 ……… 47 ………. 1 ……….. 48 ……… 5
Oct …..41 ……….. 7 ………..48 ………. 50 ………… 10 ………….. 51 ……….. 11 …………. 52 ………… 4
Nov ..42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 49 ………… 8 ………….. 52 ……….. 10 ………… 52 …………. 4
Dec …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 49 ………… 8 …………… 52 ………. 10 ……….. 52 ………… 4
2016
Jan …42 …….. 7 ………..48 ………. 47 …….. 6 ………… 51 ……. 9 …….. 52 ……… 3
Feb …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 49 …….. 7 ………… 50 ……. 9 …….. 51 ……… 2
Mar ..42 …….. 9 ………..52 ………. 46 …….. 4 ………… 48 ……. 6 …….. 49 ……… 4
Apr …41 …….. 13 ………..53 ……… 43 ……. 2 ………… 46 ……. 5 …….. 47 ……… 8
May ..42 …….. 10 ………..51 ……… 46 …….. 4 ………… 48 …… 6 …….. 48 ……… 4
Jun ….43 …….. 9 …………52 ……….. 43 …….. 1 ………… 46 ……. 3 …….. 47 ……… 7
Jul …. 37 …….. 7 ………..45 ………. 53 ……. 16 ……… 55 ……….. 18 …….. 55 …….. 10
Aug …40 …….. 10 ……….50 ………46 …….. 6 ……….. 49 …….. 9 …….. 50 ……… 2
Sep …46 …….. 9 ………..54 ………. 42 …… 4 ………. 45 …….. 1 ………. 45 ……… 10
Do you all think our dear leader will remain as the leader of the opposition, when common sense once again returns to the people.
Or will John piss off as soon as he can and we can ridicule everyone who tries to take his place like they and MSN have.
54-42 is a nice margin.
and shows what a lying in bed with the devil type farrar is. Rogue poll or meddling?
Key has already says he will retire if he loses an election.
Then watch him go straight into a high powered banking job as reward.
Wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. He always struck me as a bit of a banker…
we know john key doesn’t like to lose he might shoot through earlier that we think
rather than face humiliation keep his cv intact also i dont think he would want the blame for a down turn or the property market melt down he would be able say everything was fine when i was running it.
Roy Morgans since early 2015:
L+G = Labour-Green aggregate
Oppo = Lab+Green+NZF+IMP
Nat/L+G = National’s percentage point lead over Labour-Green aggregate (numbers in bold indicate polls where L+G led Nat)
Govt = Nat+ACT+Maori+UF
Govt/L+G = Govt Bloc’s percentage point lead over Labour-Green aggregate (numbers in bold indicate polls where L+G led Govt Bloc)
Right = Govt Bloc + Cons
O/G = Govt Bloc’s percentage point lead over Oppo Bloc (numbers in bold indicate polls where Oppo Bloc led Govt Bloc)
(Figures are rounded for simplicity. Percentage Point gaps between Blocs are calculated from precise figures and then rounded)
…….L+G ….. NZF …. Oppo …. Nat …. Nat/L+G …. Govt …. Govt/L+G …. Right ….O/G
2014 General Election
………36…………9…………46……….47…………11……………49…………..13……………53……………3
Roy Morgan Polls
2015
Jan …37 …….. 6 ………..43 ………. 52 ………. 15 ………….. 55 ……….. 18 ………… 57 ………… 12
Feb …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 49 ………. 7 ……………. 50 …………. 8 ………… 52 …………. 2
Mar …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 47 ………. 5 ……………. 50 …………. 8 ……….. 51 ………… 2
Apr ….41 …….. 9 ………..50 ………. 46 ……….. 5 ……………. 48 …………. 7 ………… 49 ……..… 2
May ..36 ……… 6 ………..42 ………. 54 ……….. 18 ………….. 56 ……….. 20 ………… 57 ……… 14
Jun …39 ………. 7 ………..46 ………. 50 ………… 11 ………….. 52 ……….. 13 ………… 53 …..…… 6
Jul …. 45 ………. 7 ………..52 ………. 43 …………. 2 …..……… 45 …………. = …….….. 47 ………. 7
Aug …38 ………. 8 ………..47 ………. 51 ………… 13 ….….…. 53 ……….. 15 ………. 53 …..…… 6
Sep ….46 ………. 6 ………..52 ………. 45 ………… 2 …..…..… 47 …….…. 1 ………… 48 ….…… 5
Oct …..41 ……….. 7 ..…..48 ……… 50 ………… 10 ………… 51 ….……. 11 ….……. 52 ………… 4
Nov ..42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 49 ………… 8 ………….. 52 ……….. 10 ………… 52 …………. 4
Dec …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 49 ………… 8 …………… 52 ………. 10 ……….. 52 ………..… 4
2016
Jan …42 …….. 7 ………..48 ………. 47 …….….. 6 …..……..… 51 ….…… 9 …..…… 52 ………… 3
Feb …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 49 ..…….. 7 …..…….… 50 ………. 9 ……….. 51 ….…… 2
Mar ..42 …….. 9 ………..52 ………. 46 ….….. 4 …..……….. 48 …..…. 6 ………. 49 …..…… 4
Apr …41 …….. 13 ………..53 …….… 43 …….. 2 ……..….… 46 ……… 5 ………. 47 …..…… 8
May ..42 …….. 10 ………..51 ……… 46 …….. 4 …….…… 48 …..… 6 ……….. 48 ……..… 4
Jun ….43 …….. 9 …………52 ……….. 43 …….. 1 ……….… 46 ……. 3 …….. 47 ……… 7
Jul …. 37 …….. 7 ………..45 ………. 53 ……. 16 ……… 55 ……….. 18 …….. 55 …….. 10
Aug …40 …….. 10 ……….50 ………46 …….. 6 ……….. 49 ….….. 9 ……… 50 ….…… 2
Sep …46 …….. 9 ………..54 ………. 42 …… 4 ………. 45 …….. 1 ………. 45 ……… 10
I’m determined to get this table looking ship-shape – even if it takes me 4 or 5 attempts (call me old-fashioned but 10 minute edit just aint long enough). Moderator should feel free to delete earlier efforts above (cheers)
Might work better in a post. Do you want me to try later when I’m on a computer?
Roy Morgans since early 2015:
L+G = Labour-Green aggregate
Oppo = Lab+Green+NZF+IMP
Nat/L+G = National’s percentage point lead over Labour-Green aggregate (numbers in bold indicate polls where L+G led Nat)
Govt = Nat+ACT+Maori+UF
Govt/L+G = Govt Bloc’s percentage point lead over Labour-Green aggregate (numbers in bold indicate polls where L+G led Govt Bloc)
Right = Govt Bloc + Cons
O/G = Govt Bloc’s percentage point lead over Oppo Bloc (numbers in bold indicate polls where Oppo Bloc led Govt Bloc)
(Figures are rounded for simplicity. Percentage Point gaps between Blocs are calculated from precise figures and then rounded)
…….L+G ….. NZF …. Oppo …. Nat …. Nat/L+G …. Govt …. Govt/L+G …. Right ….O/G
2014 General Election
………36…………9…………46……….47…………11……………49…………..13……………53……………3
Roy Morgan Polls
2015
Jan …37 …….. 6 ………..43 ………. 52 ………. 15 ………….. 55 ……….. 18 ………… 57 ………… 12
Feb …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 49 ………. 7 ……………. 50 …………. 8 ………… 52 …………. 2
Mar …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 47 ………. 5 ……………. 50 …………. 8 ……….. 51 ………… 2
Apr ….41 …….. 9 ………..50 ………. 46 ……….. 5 …………… 48 …………. 7 ………… 49 ……..… 2
May ..36 ……… 6 ………..42 ………. 54 ….….. 18 ….…..….. 56 …….….. 20 ………… 57 ……… 14
Jun …39 ………. 7 ………..46 ………. 50 ……… 11 ………….. 52 ……….. 13 ………… 53 …..…… 6
Jul …. 45 ………. 7 ………..52 ………. 43 ………. 2 …..….….… 45 …………. = …….….. 47 ………. 7
Aug …38 ………. 8 ………..47 ………. 51 ………… 13 ….….…. 53 …….….. 15 …….…. 53 …..…… 6
Sep ….46 ………. 6 ………..52 ………. 45 ………… 2 ………..… 47 ……..…. 1 …….…… 48 ….…… 5
Oct …..41 …….. 7 ..……..48 …….… 50 …….…… 10 ….……… 51 ….……. 11 ….……. 52 ………… 4
Nov ..42 …..….. 6 ….……48 …….….. 49 ….……… 8 ………….. 52 ……….. 10 ………… 52 …………. 4
Dec …42 ………. 6 ….…..48 …….…. 49 …………… 8 ……….… 52 ….……. 10 ……….. 52 ………..… 4
2016
Jan …42 ………. 7 ……..…..48 ….….…. 47 ……..….. 6 …..…….… 51 ….…… 9 …..…… 52 ………… 3
Feb …42 …..….. 6 …………48 …….…. 49 ..……….. 7 …..……..… 50 ………. 9 ……….. 51 ….…… 2
Mar ..42 ………. 9 …….…..52 …….…. 46 ….……… 4 …..…..….. 48 ……..…. 6 ………. 49 …..…… 4
Apr …41 …..….. 13 ………..53 …….… 43 ………… 2 ……..…..… 46 ……..… 5 ………. 47 …..…… 8
May ..42 …..….. 10 ………..51 ….…… 46 …….….. 4 …….…..… 48 ……… 6 ……….. 48 ………… 4
Jun ….43 …..….. 9 …………52 ……….. 43 ……….. 1 …..…….… 46 ………. 3 …..….. 47 …..…… 7
Jul …. 37 ………. 7 …………45 ….……. 53 …….…. 16 ………… 55 …… 18 ……….. 55 …….. 10
Aug …40 ………. 10 ……….50 …..……46 ………… 6 ……..….. 49 ……..….. 9 ……… 50 ….…… 2
Sep …46 …..….. 9 …….…..54 ……….. 42 ……… 4 ………..…. 45 …..….. 1 …….…. 45 ….…… 10
Final Draft
Roy Morgans since early 2015:
L+G = Labour-Green aggregate
Oppo = Lab+Green+NZF+IMP
Nat/L+G = National’s percentage point lead over Labour-Green aggregate (numbers in bold indicate polls where L+G led Nat)
Govt = Nat+ACT+Maori+UF
Govt/L+G = Govt Bloc’s percentage point lead over Labour-Green aggregate (numbers in bold indicate polls where L+G led Govt Bloc)
Right = Govt Bloc + Cons
O/G = Govt Bloc’s percentage point lead over Oppo Bloc (numbers in bold indicate polls where Oppo Bloc led Govt Bloc)
(Figures are rounded for simplicity. Percentage Point gaps between Blocs are calculated from precise figures and then rounded)
…….L+G ….. NZF …. Oppo …. Nat …. Nat/L+G …. Govt …. Govt/L+G …. Right ….O/G
2014 General Election
………36…………9…………46……….47…………11……………49…………..13……………53……………3
Roy Morgan Polls
2015
Jan …37 …….. 6 ………..43 ………. 52 ………. 15 ………….. 55 ……….. 18 ………… 57 ………… 12
Feb …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 49 ………. 7 ……………. 50 …………. 8 ………… 52 …………. 2
Mar …42 …….. 6 ………..48 ………. 47 ………. 5 ……………. 50 …………. 8 ……….. 51 ………… 2
Apr ….41 …….. 9 ………..50 ………. 46 ……….. 5 …………… 48 …………. 7 ………… 49 ……..… 2
May ..36 ……… 6 ………..42 ………. 54 ….….. 18 ….…..….. 56 …….….. 20 ………… 57 ……… 14
Jun …39 ………. 7 ………..46 ………. 50 ……… 11 ………….. 52 ……….. 13 ………… 53 …..…… 6
Jul …. 45 ………. 7 ………..52 ………. 43 ………. 2 …..….….… 45 …………. = …….….. 47 ………. 7
Aug …38 ………. 8 ………..47 ………. 51 ……… 13 .….….….. 53 …….….. 15 …….…. 53 …..…… 6
Sep ….46 ………. 6 ………..52 ………. 45 ………… 2 ………..… 47 ……..…. 1 …….…… 48 ….…… 5
Oct …..41 …….. 7 ..……..48 ….….… 50 ………… 10 ….……… 51 ….……. 11 ….……. 52 ………… 4
Nov ..42 …..….. 6 ….……48 …….….. 49 ….……… 8 ………….. 52 ……….. 10 ………… 52 ………. 4
Dec …42 ………. 6 ….…..48 ……..…. 49 ………… 8 …….….… 52 ….……. 10 …….….. 52 ……..… 4
2016
Jan …42 ………. 7 ……..…..48 ….….…. 47 ……..….. 6 …..……… 51 ….…… 9 …..…… 52 ………… 3
Feb …42 …..….. 6 …………48 …….…. 49 ..…….….. 7 …..…….… 50 ………. 9 ……….. 51 ….…… 2
Mar ..42 ………. 9 …….…..52 …….…. 46 ….….…… 4 …..…..….. 48 ……..…. 6 ………. 49 …..…… 4
Apr …41 …..….. 13 ………..53 …….… 43 ……….… 2 ……..…..… 46 ……..… 5 ………. 47 …..…… 8
May ..42 …..….. 10 ………..51 ….…… 46 …….…… 4 …….…..… 48 …..…… 6 ……….. 48 ………… 4
Jun ….43 …..….. 9 …………52 ……….. 43 ……..….. 1 …..……… 46 …….…. 3 …..….. 47 …..…..… 7
Jul …. 37 ………. 7 …………45 ….……. 53 ……..…. 16 ……..…… 55 …….… 18 ….….. 55 ….…… 10
Aug …40 ………. 10 ……….50 …………46 ….……… 6 ……….….. 49 …….….. 9 ……… 50 ….….… 2
Sep …46 ……….. 9 …….…..54 ……….. 42 ………… 4 ……………. 45 …..…… 1 ….….. 45 …..…… 10
Good effort
Lynn should just add in a fixed-width tag option and it’d save all that time.
Anyway, it looks quite clear that the Jul result is an outlier, and looking at the earlier months in the year, the Aug result was an outlier as well.
Great work Sword fish.
testing
fixed width text?new <code> tag looks OK
You are a gentleman of detail and patience, swordfish.
Works for me on a laptop – thanks!
Looks good on the laptop (was a dog on the phone).
Nats + ACT + NZF = 51%
I see all the counting of eggs before they hatch… Everybody seem to be so convinced that “their” party will win, that “their” leader is better etc.
A lot of mention is made about the poor and the very rich, no one is talking about the people who work 2 or more jobs, put their kids through school, don’t complain and get on with it. Because they know that all that talk is cheap and nothing ever will come of it unless you do it your self. And there are plenty of those folks.
When are we going to see issues addressed such as:
Welfare – run by Paula Bennett with a dubious emphasis as to whose welfare we are talking about , Steven Joyce, the Novopay minister with a wealth of IT knowledge that has cost the people as mentioned above an arm and a leg, Mr Jonathan Coleman who is happy that “only” very few people die whilst waiting for treatment, Mrs Hekia Parata, believing that constant changing of rules will disguise that it is a means to reduce funding and parents basically are now faced with a semi privatized education system. Crime, another issue that no one wants to talk about as it is now OK to take what your neighbor has because work and saving to get the “stuff” is too hard and takes too long. Those who do so are just bl… idiots from whom these low lives can take what they want.
So, what has Labour to offer? What are their plans, aspirations, aims? I haven’t heard anything other than they will be different. Different – what does this mean?
When will there be serious stand on issues that the general public can understand and is inspired by? Where is an idea of what kind of place NZ is suppose to be, inclusive of all the people in it. Please – no more I want, I am entitled, I am more worth then you etc…
BTW -Don’t wait for NZ First to prop the party, because they wont. They are on the far right by nature and would sooner be part of National – same as the Maori Party.
Until capitalism fails, and not just lefties saying that, the solution is a meld of left and right which appears to be John Keys stance despite the fool actions of his cabinet trying with best of intentions to foul him up.