web analytics

Main parties down minor parties up

Written By: - Date published: 7:07 am, November 18th, 2011 - 26 comments
Categories: election 2011, polls - Tags: , , ,

The major parties poll high between elections. As the election approaches, and minor parties get publicity, the major parties tend to fall and the minors rise. This election is following the same pattern, with both National and Labour down in the two TV polls (though slightly up in The Herald poll, so mixed messages as usual).

The 3 News Reid Reseach poll has National down to its lowest level since it won the 2008 election.

The ONE News Colmar Brunton has Labour down to a ten year low.

The Herald DigiPoll has both main parties up a bit, and NZF on (headline shocker!) 4.9%.

The good news for the Left is that The Herald has National under 50% and both TV polls have them heading down there, and all polls have the Greens steady near or rising fast to 13%.  Here are the figures (some taken from here):

One News/Colmar Brunton
National 53% (down 1)
Labour 26% (down 2)
Greens 13% (up 4)
NZ First 2.2% (down 0.7)
Maori 1.6% (down 0.5)
Act 1.6% (up 0.1)
Conservative 1.4% (up 0.9)
Mana 1.3% (up 1.1)
United 0.8% (up 0.5)
Preferred PM: Key 53, Goff 13

3 News/Reid Research
National 50.2% (down 3.1)
Labour 27.4% (down 2.5)
Greens 13% (up 2.8)
NZ First 3.5% (up 1.1)
Act 1.8% (up 1.1)
Maori 1.3% (down 0.1)
Conservative 1.1% (no change)
Mana 1.0% (nc)
United –
Preferred PM: Key 49, Goff 10

Herald DigiPoll
National on 49.89 per cent (up 0.4),
Labour 29.1 (up 0.4),
Greens 12.6 (no change),
NZ First 4.9 (up 1.2),
Act 1.7 (up 0.2),
Maori Party 0.7 (up 0.2),
Conservatives 0.6 (down 0.4),
Mana Party 0.4 (down 0.4),
United Future 0.1 (down 0.6)

I would expect the Nats to fall as the bungled and aggressive handling of the teapot tape fiasco has time to impact the polls. It’s going to be an interesting week.

26 comments on “Main parties down minor parties up”

  1. ianmac 1

    How many MPs would translate from 5% of the vote? It could be significant against the born to rule National.

  2. The Gormless Fool formerly known as Oleolebiscuitbarrell 2

    Why does the Herald poll round every party other than National to one decimal point? Could they not bear to show them at 49.9%?

  3. With a slight rise in support, Mana can bring in three or four MPs. Class warriors like John Minto and Sue Bradford can join Hone and Annette and push NZ politics to the Left. One party vote Mana is worth one hundred party votes Green or Labour. 4 Mana MPs is a prize worth pushing for in the last week of this campaign.

    • weka 3.1

      So do you think that Mana won’t get many electorate seats? Because 1.5% of the party vote will only get Mana one seat and they will have that anyway with Harawira. If they get more via the electorate seats then the party vote is in effect wasted.

      I wish someone would write something about tactical voting.

      • Lanthanide 3.1.1

        Mana’s only real shots are Hone and Annette. Recent polling shows Annette doing very poorly in her electorate, something like 25% to 50% for the Maori Party. Polling could simply be biased, but that’s quite a large difference.

        • Shazzadude 3.1.1.1

          Maori polling is quite volatile. Waiariki in 1999 had Tuariki Delamere leading Mita Ririnui in the landline polls-Mita Ririnui almost doubled Delamere’s vote in the end. Tu Wyllie was also polling ahead for New Zealand First in 1999 in Te Tai Tonga as well-he too was soundly beaten.

          • weka 3.1.1.1.1

            That coupled with the MSM’s inattention and inability to report well on Maori politics make it really hard to know what is going to happen. Are the Maori seats not considered important currently because National has such a big lead?

    • Mark 3.2

      Particulary after the minor party leaders’ debate! Mana will swell – I would expect a 3-4% percent at least. Sort of bad news for Labour though because those votes are unlikely to come from the right…

      Maybe Mana’s success will cost the Greens some votes from those he see it heading centrist, but more likely this will contribute to Labour’s worst ever election. Despite teapots.

    • kriswgtn 3.3

      That is why Mana get my party vote this year..

    • Joe Carolan:

      Hone will win his seat for TeMana.

      So If gets 1% of the party vote is that one more MP.
      Is 2% another?

  4. Richard Watts 4

    Technically speaking the Green party are officially a ‘medium sized’ party. 🙂
     

  5. Clark 5

    Trouble is for Labour is that the Greens are stealing Labours votes. Because unlike Labour they arent hooked on Key Phobia!. The public arent listening to Labour anymore they are sinking into a mire of irrelevance. The Greens are becoming the opposistion party of choice. This will only get worse for Labour as more youth come into the voting system.

    • Olwyn 5.1

      I do not think that this has a lot to do with Labour’s policies, or the Green’s new image. Many of the people I have spoken to who are voting Green think that the gap is too wide now for Labour to bridge. So they think that if Labour does manage to raise its vote, then the Greens can go into a coalition with them, while if it does not the Greens will be better placed to curb National’s excesses than a defeated Labour.

    • Ari 5.2

      Nobody can “steal Labour’s votes”. Every vote Labour gets it has to earn, and if it fails to re-earn some of its previous support, those votes aren’t “stolen”.

    • Colonial Viper 5.3

      The Greens are becoming the opposistion party of choice.

      haha! Yeah, the party of choice for those who want a leadership willing to sell you out, simply because he thinks his Blue-Green Minister of Conservation portfolio is slipping from between his fingers.

  6. Enough is Enough 6

    I heard on Radio Live yesterday that there are 125,000 young people (18-26), not enrolled yet. This is the key problem for those of us that want to see the Greens poll results reflected at the election.

    I fear that the same people who are currently saying they would vote Green in an election may not be enrolled. If you know young progressive people ask them if they have enrolled and push them in the right direction.

    The Greens need those 125,000 younger voters.

  7. Clark 7

    Labour have played this Election totally wrong!! Their attack the man strategy has gone down like a cold cup of sick with most voters from the Centre. If they had stuck to policy they would have had a much better chance. Who ever was their strategist should fired or otherwise he is a national party person in drag. Remember it was Labour before the campaign who stated that it was all about the Policy ,and not about the Personality. Then they attack the person talk about hypocritical, and sending out mixed messages. We all know from past expiereince that attacking the person is very high risk in Politics. Labour have been very unwise with this flawed tactic. You havent seen norman attacking Key like labour has!!. That is why he has picked up votes. Labour must get over its immature stance of attacking a a successful businessman whether they like him or not. Remember its all about the Policies. Everytime Labour attack Key personally he wins ,and it just looks like envy Politics which doesnt sit well with anyone. By chosing the stance that they have they were only ever going to attract their own hard core voting base which was never enough votes. They were never going to attract the swinging voters or the centre voters as most people cant be bothered with what they are saying, and just think its labour whingeing again. If you go on to much about the same thing people switch off this has clearly happened in this campaign. That is my take on it all

    [sprout: note Clark, if you spell your name with a K you get auto-filtered into the spam trap]

    • Draco T Bastard 7.1

      Haven’t seen Labour attack the man yet. They’ve pointed out his and Nationals lack of policies and broken promises.

      • Bella Hagen 7.1.1

        Thank you DTB – Labour has put out so much policy – most of it given only a cursory glance by the media. the economic and finance policies are very detailed. I can’t think of instances of targeting the man – after all why would you want to add to his media profile.

  8. swordfish 8

    Putting aside who’s likely to make it into Parliament……

    Herald DigiPoll

    Labour + Greens + NZ First + Mana = 47%

    National + Act + Maori + Conservatives + United Future = 53%

    And this poll was carried out before the full impact of Key’s spectacular own-goal (tea-party).

  9. Nick K 9

    Woohoo, a hard left government!!!! Woohoo!! Woohoo!! Exactly what we need!! There is simply not enough socialism in NZ; more socialism is the answer. Look at Greece and Italy!!

    Woohoo!!! Woohoo!! Bring on the hard left government for prosperity, health and happiness.

    Just like the USSR & Cuba had/have.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Revolutionary art in Palmerston North
    Last night I was a judge at the May Day Cup, an annual theatrical event which celebrates International Workers Day. The event was organised by stalwart unionist Dion Martin and included a range of performers competing for the Cup. This year… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    19 hours ago
  • Revolutionary art in Palmerston North
    Last night I was a judge at the May Day Cup, an annual theatrical event which celebrates International Workers Day. The event was organised by stalwart unionist Dion Martin and included a range of performers competing for the Cup. This year… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    19 hours ago
  • Andrew Little visits Zaatari refugee camp
    Leader of the Opposition, Andrew Little, has visited the largest Syrian refugee camp in the world, Zaatari in Jordan, a day after seeing New Zealand troops at Camp Taji in Iraq. Mr Little spent several hours in the camp, meeting… ...
    2 days ago
  • Com Com’s Z Energy decision anti-competitive
    The Commerce Commission’s decision to allow Z Energy to buy Caltex can only undermine the competition in the fuel industry that is needed to ensure New Zealanders pay the lowest price for petrol, Labour’s Consumer Affairs spokesperson David Shearer says.… ...
    2 days ago
  • Com Com’s Z Energy decision anti-competitive
    The Commerce Commission’s decision to allow Z Energy to buy Caltex can only undermine the competition in the fuel industry that is needed to ensure New Zealanders pay the lowest price for petrol, Labour’s Consumer Affairs spokesperson David Shearer says.… ...
    2 days ago
  • OAG raps Govt over the knuckles on HNZ contracts
    The Government has been rapped over the knuckles by the Auditor General over its failure to properly manage $2.3m of contracts and conflicts of interest in relation to a merchant banker advising them on the state house sell-off, says Labour’s… ...
    3 days ago
  • OAG raps Govt over the knuckles on HNZ contracts
    The Government has been rapped over the knuckles by the Auditor General over its failure to properly manage $2.3m of contracts and conflicts of interest in relation to a merchant banker advising them on the state house sell-off, says Labour’s… ...
    3 days ago
  • Brownlee must step in as EQC spin exposed
    Gerry Brownlee needs to step in after EQC’s desperate spin in the wake of yesterday’s landmark settlement has been exposed by its own documents, says Labour’s Canterbury spokesperson Megan Woods. “Yesterday’s settlement showed that thousands of homes may not have… ...
    3 days ago
  • Brownlee must step in as EQC spin exposed
    Gerry Brownlee needs to step in after EQC’s desperate spin in the wake of yesterday’s landmark settlement has been exposed by its own documents, says Labour’s Canterbury spokesperson Megan Woods. “Yesterday’s settlement showed that thousands of homes may not have… ...
    3 days ago
  • OIO must explain Argentine pollution prosecutions
    The Overseas Investment Office (OIO)has questions to answer about how it safeguarded our sensitive land by allowing foreign investors with criminal prosecutions to purchase Onetai Station in Taranaki, says Labour’s Land Information spokesperson David Cunliffe.   “Rafael and Federico Grozovsky… ...
    3 days ago
  • Aussie banks in NZ should ban lending to offshore buyers
    ASB, Westpac and ANZ must confirm whether or not they will continue to fund the over-heated property market by lending to non-resident offshore home buyers, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “This issue has arisen because their parent banks have… ...
    3 days ago
  • Aussie banks in NZ should ban lending to offshore buyers
    ASB, Westpac and ANZ must confirm whether or not they will continue to fund the over-heated property market by lending to non-resident offshore home buyers, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “This issue has arisen because their parent banks have… ...
    3 days ago
  • Murray McCully needs to come clean over Tokelau ferry debacle
    Foreign Minister Murray McCully needs to come clean on why a New Zealand aid-funded vessel intended to service the Tokelau Islands is delayed, over budget and failed its sea trials, Labour’s Foreign Affairs spokesperson David Shearer says. “The new ship… ...
    3 days ago
  • Full independent inquiry needed to save New Zealand’s reputation
    Revelations that John Key's personal lawyer and trust advisor led a lobbying campaign to shut down a review of New Zealand's foreign trust regime makes the case for a full scale independent inquiry a matter of urgency, Labour's Finance spokesperson… ...
    3 days ago
  • Full independent inquiry needed to save New Zealand’s reputation
    Revelations that John Key's personal lawyer and trust advisor led a lobbying campaign to shut down a review of New Zealand's foreign trust regime makes the case for a full scale independent inquiry a matter of urgency, Labour's Finance spokesperson… ...
    3 days ago
  • Andrew Little visits NZ troops in Iraq and refugees in Jordan
    Opposition Leader Andrew Little has visited New Zealand troops at Camp Taji, Iraq. Mr Little also met with Iraqi Defence Minister Khaled Al-Obedih and senior military officials from the Coalition forces in Iraq. He now heads to Jordan to see… ...
    4 days ago
  • Workplace death toll still too high
    It’s a damning indictment on the Government that as workers gather to remember their lost workmates on Worker’s Memorial Day, New Zealand’s workplace death toll is still far too high, Labour’s Workplace Relations and Safety spokesperson Iain Lees-Galloway says. “At… ...
    4 days ago
  • Workplace death toll still too high
    It’s a damning indictment on the Government that as workers gather to remember their lost workmates on Worker’s Memorial Day, New Zealand’s workplace death toll is still far too high, Labour’s Workplace Relations and Safety spokesperson Iain Lees-Galloway says. “At… ...
    4 days ago
  • Minister must come clean on implications of landmark settlement
    Gerry Brownlee has urgent and serious questions to answer in the wake of today’s landmark EQC settlement, which potentially has major implications for thousands of Cantabrians, says Labour’s Canterbury spokesperson Megan Woods. ...
    4 days ago
  • Mossack Fonseca links to OIO approvals must be investigated
    The Minister for Land Information must investigate and disclose how many applications to the Overseas Investment Office (OIO) have links to Mossack Fonseca, says Labour’s Land Information spokesperson David Cunliffe. “Labour can now reveal the OIO approved an application from… ...
    4 days ago
  • Mossack Fonseca links to OIO approvals must be investigated
    The Minister for Land Information must investigate and disclose how many applications to the Overseas Investment Office (OIO) have links to Mossack Fonseca, says Labour’s Land Information spokesperson David Cunliffe. “Labour can now reveal the OIO approved an application from… ...
    4 days ago
  • Govt complacency leaves RB no room to cut
    The Government has put the economy in a holding pattern, leaving the Reserve Bank Governor with little room to manoeuvre as he tries to balance a rampant housing market with non-existent inflation, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Graeme Wheeler… ...
    4 days ago
  • Govt complacency leaves RB no room to cut
    The Government has put the economy in a holding pattern, leaving the Reserve Bank Governor with little room to manoeuvre as he tries to balance a rampant housing market with non-existent inflation, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Graeme Wheeler… ...
    4 days ago
  • Dam not out of doldrums yet
    Ruataniwha Dam promoters Hawke’s Bay Regional Investment Company (HBRIC) still has hurdles to clear and a lot of work to do before ratepayers and taxpayers will have confidence in the scheme, says Labour’s MP for Ikaroa-Rāwhiti Meka Whaitiri.“We need sustainable… ...
    4 days ago
  • New study shows Smith’s insulation fails Kiwi kids
    A new Otago University study shows Nick Smith’s inadequate insulation standards will see hundreds of children unnecessarily hospitalised for housing-related illnesses every year, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. ...
    5 days ago
  • Government out of touch on foreign trusts
    John Key’s poor handling of the foreign trusts issue is starkly revealed in a poll today which shows the majority of Kiwis are worried about the country being a tax haven and almost half think the issue has been badly… ...
    5 days ago
  • Government out of touch on foreign trusts
    John Key’s poor handling of the foreign trusts issue is starkly revealed in a poll today which shows the majority of Kiwis are worried about the country being a tax haven and almost half think the issue has been badly… ...
    5 days ago
  • Biggest trade deficit for 7 years a warning for Govt
    The biggest trade deficit for seven years shows the Government can’t be so complacent about the economy and must take action to diversify and encourage exports, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “The biggest driver has been the fall in… ...
    5 days ago
  • Biggest trade deficit for 7 years a warning for Govt
    The biggest trade deficit for seven years shows the Government can’t be so complacent about the economy and must take action to diversify and encourage exports, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “The biggest driver has been the fall in… ...
    5 days ago
  • Government’s record on climate change under fire
      The Royal Society’s latest report on climate change has made it clear that it believes the Government’s current approach to climate change is inadequate, says Labour’s spokesperson on Climate Change Megan Woods.  “The report, ‘Transition to a low-carbon economy… ...
    5 days ago
  • Government’s record on climate change under fire
      The Royal Society’s latest report on climate change has made it clear that it believes the Government’s current approach to climate change is inadequate, says Labour’s spokesperson on Climate Change Megan Woods.  “The report, ‘Transition to a low-carbon economy… ...
    5 days ago
  • Mainfreight director agrees with Labour on rail funding
    Richard Prebble – in the past accused of ruining rail and now a director of Mainfreight – agrees with Labour that secure funding for KiwiRail is the best way to minimise congestion in our major cities, says Labour’s SOEs spokesperson… ...
    5 days ago
  • Mainfreight director agrees with Labour on rail funding
    Richard Prebble – in the past accused of ruining rail and now a director of Mainfreight – agrees with Labour that secure funding for KiwiRail is the best way to minimise congestion in our major cities, says Labour’s SOEs spokesperson… ...
    5 days ago
  • Government to Reserve Bank – Rock or Hard Place?
    The Government’s complacency on the housing crisis and the economy has put the Reserve Bank Governor in a no-win position as he contemplates the OCR tomorrow, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Graeme Wheeler is stuck between a rock and… ...
    5 days ago
  • Government to Reserve Bank – Rock or Hard Place?
    The Government’s complacency on the housing crisis and the economy has put the Reserve Bank Governor in a no-win position as he contemplates the OCR tomorrow, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Graeme Wheeler is stuck between a rock and… ...
    5 days ago
  • John Key’s land tax could push up rents
    A land tax proposed by John Key as the answer to the housing crisis could push up rents and risks having no effect on skyrocketing prices, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “The Government needs to explain why the thousands… ...
    6 days ago
  • Government should ban foreign speculators
    The Prime Minister’s musings about a land tax on non-resident buyers is just more tinkering, and the Government should just ban foreign speculators as the Australian Government has done, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “This is classic John Key.… ...
    6 days ago
  • Government must protect Pharmac as promised
    John Key must tell New Zealanders that he will not bow to pressure from wealthy drug companies or their US negotiators and put Kiwi lives at risk, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says.   “News reports today have the drug… ...
    6 days ago
  • Action not words, needed on housing speculation
    John Key should be taking action to crack down on speculation in our overheated housing market, instead of random musings on land tax, Labour Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford said.  "John Key suggested today on TVNZ's Q and A programme that… ...
    1 week ago
  • Tertiary education cost rising 7x faster than inflation
    New figures show the cost of tertiary education is rising seven times faster than inflation, putting post-school education out of the reach of many, Opposition Leader Andrew Little says.  “Figures release this week show how much more students or their… ...
    1 week ago
  • Buying Lotto is not an arts funding strategy
    The Government must rethink the way the arts are funded after falling Lotto sales has left the sector with declining resources and increasingly vulnerable, Labour’s Arts, Culture and Heritage spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says.  “Our arts sector is in a sorry… ...
    1 week ago
  • Parents hit in pocket by Government under-funding
    Parents and families are left forking out more and more for their kids’ education as a direct result of Government under-funding, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says.  “The latest data shows that the cost to families of primary and secondary… ...
    1 week ago
  • Scientists ‘gasping for oxygen’ under National
     Steven Joyce's claims to be creating a science and innovation hub in New Zealand are a sham based on PR fluff, says Labour's Science and Innovation Spokesperson David Cunliffe.  “A damning critique of the science funding model by the New… ...
    1 week ago
  • Scientists ‘gasping for oxygen’ under National
     Steven Joyce's claims to be creating a science and innovation hub in New Zealand are a sham based on PR fluff, says Labour's Science and Innovation Spokesperson David Cunliffe.  “A damning critique of the science funding model by the New… ...
    1 week ago
  • Water for grass
    Last Saturday, my colleague Eugenie Sage took me for a drive across the Canterbury Plains. I had seen from the air the landuse changes across the plains in recent times; a patchwork of crops and stock raising has been transformed… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    1 week ago
  • Water for grass
    Last Saturday, my colleague Eugenie Sage took me for a drive across the Canterbury Plains. I had seen from the air the landuse changes across the plains in recent times; a patchwork of crops and stock raising has been transformed… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty
    1 week ago
  • Thousands of invalid votes likely after National refuses to change rules
    National’s refusal to make it easier to enrol and vote could result in tens of thousands of votes continuing to be ruled invalid at general elections, Labour’s Justice spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says. The Justice and Electoral select committee today released… ...
    1 week ago
  • Social Development stats don’t add up
    Today’s figures released by the Ministry of Social Development show that despite a drop in the number of beneficiaries, fewer people are going into paid employment or study, says Labour’s Social Development spokesperson Carmel Sepuloni. ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Fonterra sticks with high pollution goal of increasing milk supply
    This week’s reported comments by Fonterra chair John Wilson that dairy “volumes were only going to keep increasing”  are troubling. Mr Wilson was supporting a potential renegotiation of the New Zealand-China Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Under the FTA dairy products such… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage
    2 weeks ago
  • Coleman’s ‘efficiencies’ strangling health
    New Zealand’s district health boards have made ‘efficiencies’ of more than $672 million over the past five years at the expense of everything from new drugs to elective surgery, says Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King.  “This is a body blow for… ...
    2 weeks ago

Public service advertisements by The Standard

Current CO2 level in the atmosphere