web analytics
The Standard
Advertising

Not with a bang but a whimper

Written By: - Date published: 7:59 am, July 17th, 2012 - 21 comments
Categories: act, elections, maori party, national - Tags:

There’s some interesting speculation that the Government could collapse within months. The theory goes that the Government could lose its majority due to 1) the Maori Party walking away over the water rights issue and 2) John Banks being forced to resign over illegally anonymised donations in the 2010 Auckland mayoral election. I don’t see it happening, yet.

Let’s take the Maori Party. They will resist walking at all costs. Which means up to the point where National legislates over the top of court decisions giving Maori proprietary rights to water (which, by the way, it now turns out Key used to acknowledge Maori had until it became politically advantageous to use the issue to create racial tension). That will take a long time. I can’t imagine a High Court decision until the end of the year at the earliest. Then, an appeal, probably right up to the Supreme Court could take us well into next year (although, if they’re losing, the Government might skip straight to legislation). Then, there’s drafting time etc. It took a year from the Court of Appeal’s decision in the Ngati Apa case (which had first been taken to court six years earlier!) for legislation to be introduced and for Tariana Turia to resign. Even if the Government starts drafting early in the process, I can’t see legislation introduced until mid-next year.

Similarly, in what seems to be the likely event that John Banks is charged with offences under the Local Elections Act, I doubt he would resign immediately. That would be an admission of guilt and Banks is constitutionally incapable of that. He will fight to the end and he will seek to delay the hearings, all while saying he wants these ‘ridiculous charges’ dealt with as soon as possible. Again, I think it will be mid to late next year before Banks’ seat is vacated (interestingly, reading the Electoral Act suggests the vacancy happens on conviction at the first court, whether there are appeals or not).

And if either of these scenarios doesn’t play out (and Peter Dunne’s hair doesn’t gain sentience and strangle him as a gift to humanity), then National would still retain the numbers – at least on confidence and supply. If both those events do happen, then it’s still late 2013 before National loses its majority in the House – and that is assuming the Maori Party votes against the government, rather than abstain. I tend to think they would abstain. And that loss of a majority would be temporary – about 3 months – as Banks’ replacement would almost certainly be from National. A confidence vote instigated by the Opposition in a scenario where the Maori Party has switched sides and Banks’ seat is empty would fail on a 60-60 draw.

But I don’t think it’s all bad news. If an election were held now, National might profit from Key’s playing of the race card. Far better that court action delay the asset sales for a year at least, and the Government stumbles on, unable to do anything, bleeding support at around 0.5-1% a month as it has over the past year (I’m not sure why people are calling that a gentle decline, btw, that decline adds up over the months and this is a government that has a one seat majority on rightwing policies).

If I was the Greens and Labour, I would be preparing for an election in late 2013. But I don’t think it will actually happen. This Government is more likely to hobble all the way through.

(PS. Key has just said he will “listen in good faith” to the findings of the Waitangi Tribunal on water. A week late, mate. You just spent a week dissing the Tribunal and intimating that you would ignore its findings)

21 comments on “Not with a bang but a whimper”

  1. I agree about Banks holding on to the bitter end.

    But presuming he is charged Key will have to stand Banks down as Minister and the pressure then will be enormous.  Banks will not like this one bit.

    And I am not sure about the Maori Party.  Manu Paul, co leader of the Maori Council has urged the Maori Party to walk away from the coalition while its mana is intact.  On radio he used the word “kupapa” meaning collaborator, in describing those who continued to support the Government.  He said if they had mana they would walk. 

    I guess it is a hard choice for Tariana and Pita.  Do they keep the limos or do they keep their mana?

    • Jim Nald 1.1

      Once upon a time, Tariana would be on the media and frequently invoke the expression “my people”. How can she, with integrity and authenticity, say that these days?? So what is in it for her now: people or baubles of office?

      Re “This Government is more likely to hobble all the way through” – taking a spiritual and religious approach, and with a comment from a Feng Shui Master, there are some things not within human control (and there is no intention here to wish illwill on them): mortality.

    • Tom Gould 1.2

      More likely that Banks is not charged on the basis that there is insufficient hard evidence to secure a conviction, and that the baubles will prove too alluring for their mana-enhancing collaborators. Business as usual. This is Tory politics Key-style, remember. The quaint old rules do not apply. The test is what can you get away with. Besides, they have a few juicy distractions in the pipeline.

      • Dr Terry 1.2.1

        Yes, Tom, I think this is fairly realistic.Let’s wait to see how Key greases Sharples and Turia back in to line!

        • jack 1.2.1.1

          Yes, he’ll grease them with our taxpayer’s money or assets and we will be left paying the bills AGAIN!!! Key is such a generous man with my hard working money. Not to get off the subject but I heard on the news 2/3 of the army is thinking of quiting because of low moral. Key is such a leader, isn’t he? Every time I hear him speak my stomach turns and I have to change the channel. He’ll go down as the worst Prime Minister.

      • deuto 1.2.2

        More likely that Banks is not charged on the basis that there is insufficient hard evidence to secure a conviction.

        The ‘ironic’ thing about this, if it is the case, is that it would not surprise me if Dotcom with all his IT saavy and equipment etc did not have recordings, CCTV evidence etc of the wheeling dealing on the conversation re splitting the donation – BUT where is any such evidence? Taken by the Police during the raid …………..

        • Lanthanide 1.2.2.1

          Dotcom seems to be very anti-Banks and anti-National, lately. I’m sure if he had any such evidence, even if it had been confiscated, he’d have made it public. He’s the likely source of the scans of the cheques that John Campbell got hold of.

    • Rosie 1.3

      “Do they keep their limo’s or do they keep their mana?”

      It would show dignity, empowerment and their integrity would be left in tact if Pita Sharples and Tariana Turia walked away and left the Govt without one of it’s partners. By walking away and not, yet again, bowing to the Nat Govt they would be showing solidarity with their voters and possibly the whole of Maoridom.
      How likely is it though? Both Sharples and Turia seem to be clinging on with their fingernails. Sharples, when questioned on Maori TV last year by a skeptical Julian Wilcox, has always come back to his determination to stay “inside Government to benefit our people”. This is a line he has repeated in recent times too in other media sources.
      Perhaps it would take a great change in thinking or some genuine and deep belief in what Maanu Paul is suggesting for them too walk.

      In the meantime I will continue with my daily affirmation that some disaster will befall this most vile National Govt.

      • felix 1.3.1

        That whole “inside govt to benefit our people” was a reasonable – if naive – position in the first couple of years, but surely Pita knows this is the maori Party’s last term.

        This is their final chance to “benefit our people” and they’re turning away from it.

        And for what?

  2. bbfloyd 2

    Taniara Turia is hoist far too high on her own petard to be able to climb back down now….Pita has been trapped to securely to be able to wriggle out without doing a “hone”…. Sad really…

    So much good will, and support wasted….

  3. vto 3

    As I said long times ago – Key will fail at the pinnacle. It is written in his being.

    And now we see it beginning, the long slow fall. You could see it yesterday on his face when he admitted that the asset sales will falter.

    It is written in the ground he walks on, the air he breathes… He got his plan not quite right, not quite perfect, he relaxed at the last, or rather, didn’t think as carefully when penning his last chapter.

    it’s over

    • Pascal's bookie 3.1

      See these golden rules of banking, from none other but them thar radical leftits at the Economist:

      http://www.economist.com/node/21558584

      esp:

      There is a survivorship bias in both fund management and trading. If your career starts with some bad losses, it will quickly come to an end. So, by definition, veteran traders will have had initial success. But that could be down to luck, not skill.

      Successful fund managers attract more clients and thus manage more money. This will keep happening until they have a bad year, when clients will desert them. Their worst result will thus occur when they have the most money to look after. They may end up losing more client money in cash terms than they ever made.

      Similarly, successful traders will be given more responsibility, first heading their departments and then leading the bank itself. They will gain a reputation as the kind of person who can handle risk, and they will believe their own publicity. The likes of Dick Fuld of Lehman Brothers and Jon Corzine at MF Global seemed to regard caution as a quality for wimps.

      This is a variant of the Peter principle, which holds that managers get promoted to their level of incompetence. The trader-cum-executive will make the biggest mistake when he is in charge of the whole bank. By this stage, he will be personally rich and will remain so even if the entire bank fails

    • Dr Terry 3.2

      Agreed vto, but regretfully, the fall is so slow and so long in happening. Key does not think, he schemes and is faltering even there (or so it appears).

  4. Bored 4

    Peter Dunne’s hair doesn’t gain sentience and strangle him as a gift to humanity and PG cant even answer back today. Ouch!

  5. lcmortensen 5

    A 60-60 draw may not be a threat to confidence, but it is to supply – if any bill concerning supply fails, then that is treated as a successful vote of no confidence.
     

    • Zetetic 5.1

      They would move heaven and earth to make sure the vacancy didn’t coincide with the budget

  6. vto 6

    Down here in the South Island we can hear from Wellington the cries of men in the rigging, “all hands on deck” and “man the bilges” as HMS Failing bears down on the hard reefs of Maoridom……. lashing rain, cold and dark, creaaakk, grrooooaaannn, yells and rats jumping….

  7. bad12 7

    Our Slippery Prime Minister cannot deny that Maori have ‘rights’ over fresh water in rivers lakes and streams, and, after Paki V Crown at the Court of Appeal He can hardly deny that Maori have ‘rights’ to the ownership of river beds,

    The 2 faced abusive little twat we currently,(and hopefully not for much longer), have as Prime Minister has been for the past four years conducting negotiations behind closed doors with the ‘Iwi Leaders Group’ over the very issue of those rights Maori do have to fresh water and to attempt now to deny such rights exist and always have is sheer hypocrisy from the little shyster,

    I just wonder when the Crown will begin to behave like human beings and not craven cowards when dealing with Maori over the present water issues and other ‘take’ put befor the Waitangi Tribunal,

    To say the least it is fitting that those who first gained ‘ownership’ of lakes in this country through a decision of the Native Land Court in 1883 were behind the Paki V Crown challenge in the Court of Appeal which recently stated that the same people the Crown ripped off after the 1883 Native Land Court ruling have ‘ownership rights’ over the river bed at Pouakani, (which is now Lake Maraetai),

    Our Slippery Prime Minister can spit abuse at the Waitangi Tribunal and the claimants befor it all He likes, but, justice will be done and justice will seen to be done and the sooner that f**king little shyster wakes up to that fact and begins to negotiate openly in good faith with all the stakeholders over Maori rights to fresh water the sooner we all will see that justice done…

  8. Poission 8

    The problems (with regard to Banks) arises from when he is charged.

    1) Does he still frequent parliament and vote ?

    2) Does he step aside (with leave from the speaker)

    3) Is his proxy valid ?

    4) Will the government use the proxy of a suspected criminal?

Important links

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

1 2 3 7

  • 50 cents? Makes no sense.
    The minimum wage rose by 50 cents this month from 14.25 to 14.75. While it’s a small step towards ensuring minimum workers get a fair share, it’s important to remember that real wages only rose 1.5% while productivity rose by… ...
    GreensBy Denise Roche MP
    22 hours ago
  • The Serco corrections circus
    It should seem obvious to employers, private or public, that it’s important to do what you can to retain your best, most experienced staff. They make life easier for you because they’re effective, attentive and often respected by those around… ...
    GreensBy David Clendon MP
    23 hours ago
  • Time for NZ to prohibit the killing of great apes
    That ban was widely hailed, and spurred efforts in other countries to get similar bans. However, apes are still being exploited, abused and killed, both in captivity and in the wild. Examples of cruelty, neglect and abuse abound. Apes are… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers MP
    4 days ago
  • Auckland building consents: Tragic
    The only word to describe the latest building consent figures for Auckland is ‘tragic’, Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “Whatever the Government is doing to address the Auckland housing crisis, it is clearly not working. ...
    4 days ago
  • A whiff of a new biosecurity scandal?
    A pest which could create havoc for New Zealand’s horticulture and agriculture sector must be as much a focus for the Government as hunting out fruit flies, Labour’s Biosecurity spokesperson Damien O’Connor says. “While the Ministry for Primary Industries is… ...
    4 days ago
  • Government shrugs off health sector crisis
    Despite new evidence showing that cuts to health spending are costing lives the Government continues to deny the sector is struggling, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King says. “Health services in New Zealand are in crisis. ...
    5 days ago
  • Parata lowered the bar for failing charter school
    When Hekia Parata became aware that the Whangaruru charter school was experiencing major problems her first action was to drop standards by reducing the number of qualified teachers they had to employ, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins has revealed. “Hekia… ...
    5 days ago
  • National not being straight about the economy
    John Key and Bill English need to be straight with New Zealanders about the damage their failure to diversify the economy is doing, after new figures show export growth plunged due to a collapse in dairy exports, says Grant Robertson.… ...
    5 days ago
  • Mind the Gap
    This week the International Monetary Fund released a report on the wider economic value in closing the gender pay gap. When even the bastions of free-market economics start to raise concerns about gender pay gaps, we have to realise how… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    5 days ago
  • Labour will hold National to parental leave promise
    Labour will hold National to its promise to increase the support given to new parents of premature, multiple birth and babies born with disabilities, Labour’s paid parental leave campaigner Sue Moroney says. "I am naturally disappointed that after battling for… ...
    6 days ago
  • It was all just pillar talk
    Steven Joyce’s confession that he can no longer guarantee a pillar-free design for the New Zealand International Convention Centre shows the Government has abandoned its dream of creating an ‘iconic’ ‘world-class’ structure, says Labour Economic Development spokesperson David Clark. “Steven… ...
    6 days ago
  • Australians move on offshore speculators
    John Key might want to have a quiet word with Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott about Canberra's just-announced crack down on offshore speculators when he visits New Zealand this week, Labour's Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says."Tony Abbott's centre right government… ...
    6 days ago
  • Government at odds on overseas driver crashes
    National backbencher Jacqui Dean has spoken out about overseas driver crashes, putting herself at odds with Prime Minister John Key who is on record as saying it’s not a big issue, Labour’s Transport spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “I’m not surprised… ...
    6 days ago
  • Human Rights and the Palestine Crisis
    Last week I heard two Palestinians speak at Wellington events about the ongoing crisis in their country. Samar Sabawi spoke to a full house about the history of Palestine and gave us a lucid and disturbing account of the situation… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    6 days ago
  • Time to take real care of our kids
    An Amnesty International report has once again criticised New Zealand’s track record on looking after our kids, Labour’s Children’s spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says. The annual report, which looks at global human rights abuses highlights not only the fact that high… ...
    6 days ago
  • John Key wrong about Labour’s war vote
    John Key’s desperate claims that the former Labour Government didn’t put combat troop deployment to a Parliamentary vote are simply wrong, Labour’s Defence spokesperson Phil Goff says. “It was disgraceful that the Prime Minister ran rough shod over democracy and… ...
    6 days ago
  • Māori language bill needs work
     It is clear that the first draft of the Māori Language Bill was about structures and funding rather than the survival of te reo Māori, Labour’s Māori Development Spokesperson Nanaia Mahuta says.  “Labour is pleased that the Minister of Māori… ...
    6 days ago
  • Report proves troubled school shouldn’t have opened
    The long-awaited release of an Education Review Office report into Northland’s troubled Whangaruru charter school proves it should never have been approved in the first place, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. “This report identifies problems with absenteeism and disengaged… ...
    7 days ago
  • Reply to PM’s statement on deploying troops to Iraq
    “The decision of any Government to send troops to a conflict zone is a very serious one, and it is right that this House takes time to consider it, to debate it, and, ideally, to vote on it, but we… ...
    7 days ago
  • Minister must take action on death trap slides
    Workplace Relations Safety Minister Michael Woodhouse must take urgent action to ensure inflatable amusement rides don’t become death traps for children, Labour’s spokesperson on Labour Relations Iain Lees-Galloway says. “No one wants to stop kids having fun, but horror stories… ...
    7 days ago
  • Manus Island and the New Zealand Government
    This week the Greens have participated in awareness activity about Manus Island, the refugee camp on an island in Papua New Guinea where Australia dumps asylum seekers. John Key says that he has every confidence in the Australian Government’s claim… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Election Inquiry – Getting accessible voting on the agenda
    James Shaw has been doing a series of blogs on the Election Inquiry into last year’s general election.  I thought this was a great opportunity to raise an issue very dear to me – accessible voting. Last year’s general election… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers MP
    2 weeks ago
  • RMA changes no solution to Christchurch housing
    Housing will continue to be a big issue in 2015. The latest Consumer Price Index, released last month, shows both good news and bad news on the housing front. After years of being the most expensive place to build a… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Saving kokako in South Auckland’s Hunua Ranges
    It is amazing that you can hear the song of the endangered North Island kokako in South Auckland’s Hunua Ranges, less than 50 kms from the central city. A heavy schedule of policy workshops at the Green Party’s Policy… ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Let’s not turn a blind eye to human rights
    The Cricket World Cup has just opened in New Zealand, and it’s an opportunity for us to shine on the world stage. International sport can be a chance for us to build relationships with other countries, and examine what it… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Its Just Not Cricket
    This week it was my privilege to work with Sri Lankan Tamil communities in this country and host Australian journalist and human rights advocate Trevor Grant. I knew a bit about Trevor from his biography but I didn’t know just… ...
    GreensBy Catherine Delahunty MP
    2 weeks ago
  • Time for NZ to #BeCrueltyFree
    The Government is about to progress the final stages of the Animal Welfare Amendment bill. This will be our last opportunity to get changes made to improve the bill to ensure a better outcome for animals. I have put forwards… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers MP
    3 weeks ago
  • We want access!
    Access to buildings is a big issue for many New Zealanders. It looks like that, due to the hard work and persistence of people in the disability community, the Government may finally be starting to take access to buildings seriously.… ...
    GreensBy Mojo Mathers MP
    3 weeks ago
  • Greens call on Super Fund to divest from fossil fuels
    The Green Party today called on the New Zealand Superannuation Fund (the Fund) to divest from fossil fuels, starting immediately with coal. The call was accompanied with a new report, Making money from a climate catastrophe: The case for divesting… ...
    GreensBy Russel Norman MP
    3 weeks ago
  • Young Kiwis’ housing crisis
    Shelter is a fundamental human need along with food, water and clean air. All humans need adequate shelter; it’s a human right. Warm, safe, stable accommodation is critical for young people to be able learn and grow and just be.… ...
    GreensBy Jan Logie MP
    3 weeks ago

Removed at the request of The Daily Blog.
Public service advertisements by The Standard

Current CO2 level in the atmosphere