The Coming Oil Crisis
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9:21 am, January 13th, 2024 - 21 comments
Categories: Deep stuff, Economy, energy, International, israel, Palestine -
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An expanding Middle East war that puts the Red Sea and Suez tanker route at risk is a major risk to us because it could hit the global price of oil.
Since the attacks by the United States and United Kingdom on Houthi bases in the last days, oil prices have started to spike.
This runs counter to the 2023 price record. The Chief Market Strategist for B. Riley Wealth Mr Art Hogan explained the growing importance of OPEC as a stabilising influence. “OPEC+ has done an effective job in 2023 of coordinating lower output levels, in an environment of decelerating demand. Additionally Brazil looks set to join the alliance in January 2024.”
Brazil’s entry is likely to put downward pressure on oil price globally since it is not committing to match output with demand, and oil production in the US together with very soft economic growth in China will also be downward-price factors.
However it is pretty apparent that the United States effort towards containment of the Middle East conflict in Israel and beyond is failing. It is now much more likely that this is about to kick off, and with it oil prices are at upward risk.
We have very little protection against rising oil prices.
More than in other OECD countries, New Zealand’s use of transport fuel is weighted towards diesel and jet fuel, which play a minor role in private transport but a major role in tourism and agriculture which are our economic engines. Our economy is already weak and this is exactly what we don’t need.
We should definitely worry that an expanding war in the Middle East will affect oil prices. Analysts like Goldman Sachs have been flagging this increasing risk for a while now.
During the 1973 Arab states invasion of Israel, Arab members of OPEC imposed an embargo against the United States in retaliation for the U.S. decision to re-supply the Israeli military and to gain leverage in the post-war peace negotiations. It may be 40 years ago, but this current confluence we don’t need again. Then the Iran revolution occurred in 1979. As the previous Minister of Energy Sir Bill Birch stated, “In 1979, New Zealand suddenly lost half its oil supply. The Government could not stand idly by and do nothing.”
You can check out the full public sector response in John Boshier’s 2023 book Power Surge. This results from his recollections as an insider and his own extensive research. Read it if you want to understand the turning points in our energy story, and explore what motivated the key people.
The pressure on New Zealand at that time was so strong that it instigated a massive national programme towards greater energy self-reliance.
But then ideological radicalism and complacency set in. Deregulation of the oil industry in 1988 removed price controls, government involvement in refining, licensing of wholesalers and retailers, and restrictions on imports of refined products. With the dismantling of Marsden Point as a refinery we now fully rely on imports for all petroleum products from road tarmac to butane.
As the Ukraine war did, so the Middle East chaos should again remind us of our vulnerability.
Don’t worry we are a long way from carless days or another oil crisis.
Forty years later from the OPEC embargo, New Zealand doesn’t have an energy strategy. But the previous government did generate a terms of reference for one to be developed.
There are two bits of good news. The U.S. has such strong domestic supply that it can’t be successfully embargoed by OPEC as it was. Secondly the countries upon which we are most reliant – China, the United States and Australia – are not experiencing recession and are sending bounteous volumes of tourists our way. They can pay for the jet fuel.
The bad news is that the United States simply isn’t using its influence to calm the region down. Since 2015, in Yemen, Saudi Arabia has produced the world’s worst humanitarian crisis and caused 377,000 deaths according to U.N. estimates. That’s who the U.S. wants a big diplomatic deal with. And it is continuing to fail to use its influence over Israel to come to any diplomatic solution over its huge attacks on Gaza after the terrorist incursions in October 2023, and rewarding it with unlimited weapons.
This sustained failure with the two worst offenders in the Middle East is not likely to improve, whether Biden or Trump are running U.S. foreign policy.
This is going to get worse.
But New Zealand has zero effect on any of that. So it must prepare.
New Zealand is at high risk of oil price spikes that can cause massive economic damage.
Our government needs to commit to continuing the transformation away from oil dependence towards electricity and decarbonisation across the whole of New Zealand. It needs an energy strategy. It needs to accelerate electric car fleet replacement. It needs to shut down the Huntly coal power station. It needs to work to rid us of petroleum reliance which is our core addiction.
And it needs to act fast. As we all do.
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- Release: Labour supports urgent changes to emergency management systemLabour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour calls for New Zealand to recognise PalestineThe Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Three strikes law political posturing of worst kindThe Government is bringing back a law that has little evidential backing just to look tough, Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Government cuts unbelievably target child exploitation, violent extremism, ports and airpor...Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...2 weeks ago
- Three strikes has failed before and will fail againResurrecting the archaic three-strikes legislation is an unwelcome return to a failed American-style approach to justice. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Environmental protection vital, not ‘onerous’The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...2 weeks ago
- Ferris – Three Strikes targets those ‘too brown to be white’The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt cuts doctors and nurses in hiring freezeCuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...2 weeks ago
- Fast-track submissions period must be extendedThe Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Progress on climate will be undone by GovtNew Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Dark day for Kiwi kids as a third of Govt cuts affect themNews that 1000 jobs at the Ministry of Education and Oranga Tamariki could go is devastating for future generations of New Zealanders. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Alarm as Government signals further blow to school lunchesMore essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...3 weeks ago
- Oranga Tamariki cuts commit tamariki to state abuseTe Pāti Māori is disgusted at the confirmation that hundreds are set to lose their jobs at Oranga Tamariki, and the disestablishment of the Treaty Response Unit. “This act of absolute carelessness and out of touch decision making is committing tamariki to state abuse.” Said Te Pāti Māori Oranga Tamariki ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Quick, submit – stop Govt’s dodgy approvals billThe Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...3 weeks ago
- Government throws coal on the climate crisis fireThe Government’s policy announced today to ease consenting for coal mining will have a lasting impact across generations. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Public transport costs to double as National looks at unaffordable roading project insteadCancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Cost of living in Auckland still not a priorityA laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...3 weeks ago
- Gaza and the Pacific on the agenda with Germany
Foreign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...14 hours ago - Decision allows for housing growth in Western Bay of PlentyThe Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...2 days ago
- Speech to New Zealand China CouncilThank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...2 days ago
- Modern insurance law will protect Kiwi householdsThe Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...2 days ago
- Government recommits to equal payThe coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...2 days ago
- Transforming how our children learn to readStructured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...3 days ago
- NZ not backing down in Canada dairy disputeTrade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...3 days ago
- Stronger oversight for our most vulnerable childrenThe rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...3 days ago
- Streamlining Building Consent ChangesThe Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...3 days ago
- Minister acknowledges passing of Sir Robert Martin (KNZM)New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...3 days ago
- Speech to New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Parliament – Annual Lecture: Challenges ...Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...3 days ago
- Accelerating airport security linesFrom today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...3 days ago
- Community hui to talk about kina barrensPeople with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...4 days ago
- Kiwi exporters win as NZ-EU FTA enters into forceKiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...4 days ago
- Mining resurgence a welcome signThere are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...4 days ago
- Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill passes first readingThe return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...4 days ago
- Government to boost public EV charging networkEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...4 days ago
- Residential Property Managers Bill to not progressThe coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...4 days ago
- Independent review into disability support servicesThe Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...5 days ago
- Justice Minister updates UN on law & order planJustice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...5 days ago
- Ending emergency housing motels in RotoruaThe Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...5 days ago
- Trade Minister travels to Riyadh, OECD, and DubaiTrade Minister Todd McClay heads overseas today for high-level trade talks in the Gulf region, and a key OECD meeting in Paris. Mr McClay will travel to Riyadh to meet with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). “New Zealand’s goods and services exports to the Gulf region ...5 days ago
- Education priorities focused on lifting achievementEducation Minister Erica Stanford has outlined six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system that sets Kiwi kids up for future success. “I’m putting ambition, achievement and outcomes at the heart of our education system. I want every child to be inspired and engaged in their learning so they ...5 days ago
- NZTA App first step towards digital driver licenceThe new NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) App is a secure ‘one stop shop’ to provide the services drivers need, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Digitising Government Minister Judith Collins say. “The NZTA App will enable an easier way for Kiwis to pay for Vehicle Registration and Road User Charges (RUC). ...5 days ago
- Supporting whānau out of emergency housingWhānau with tamariki growing up in emergency housing motels will be prioritised for social housing starting this week, says Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka. “Giving these whānau a better opportunity to build healthy stable lives for themselves and future generations is an essential part of the Government’s goal of reducing ...5 days ago
- Tribute to Dave O'SullivanRacing Minister Winston Peters has paid tribute to an icon of the industry with the recent passing of Dave O’Sullivan (OBE). “Our sympathies are with the O’Sullivan family with the sad news of Dave O’Sullivan’s recent passing,” Mr Peters says. “His contribution to racing, initially as a jockey and then ...6 days ago
- Speech – Eid al-FitrAssalaamu alaikum, greetings to you all. Eid Mubarak, everyone! I want to extend my warmest wishes to you and everyone celebrating this joyous occasion. It is a pleasure to be here. I have enjoyed Eid celebrations at Parliament before, but this is my first time joining you as the Minister ...6 days ago
- Government saves access to medicinesAssociate Health Minister David Seymour has announced Pharmac’s largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff. “Access to medicines is a crucial part of many Kiwis’ lives. We’ve committed to a budget allocation of $1.774 billion over four years so Kiwis are ...6 days ago
- Pharmac Chair appointedHon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...7 days ago
- Taking action on Fetal Alcohol Spectrum DisorderHundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says. “Every day, ...1 week ago
- New sports complex opens in KaikoheRegional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...1 week ago
- Diplomacy needed more than everForeign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges. “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...1 week ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address, Buttes New British Cemetery BelgiumAmbassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service. It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...1 week ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address – NZ National Service, Chunuk BairDistinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...1 week ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address – Dawn Service, Gallipoli, TürkiyeMai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia. Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...1 week ago
- PM announces changes to portfoliosPaul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...2 weeks ago
- New catch limits for unique fishery areasRecreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...2 weeks ago
- Minister welcomes hydrogen milestoneEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...2 weeks ago
- Urgent changes to system through first RMA Amendment BillThe coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...2 weeks ago
- Overseas decommissioning models consideredOverseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...2 weeks ago
- Albanese government to wipe $3 billion in student debt, benefitting three million people
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Changes in the May 14 budget will cut the student debt of more than three million people, wiping more than $3 billion from what people owe. The government will cap the HELP indexation rate ...2 hours ago - ICC demands end to threats against court amid Gaza war probeAsia Pacific Report The prosecutor’s office at the International Criminal Court (ICC) has appealed for an end to what it calls intimidation of its staff, saying such threats could constitute an offence against the “administration of justice” by the world’s permanent war crimes court. The Hague-based office of ICC Prosecutor ...4 hours ago
- New Caledonia’s women sit-in to support smeared Kanak journalistBy Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk A women’s union in New Caledonia has staged a sit-in protest this week to support senior Kanak indigenous journalist Thérèse Waia, who works for public broadcaster Nouvelle-Calédonie la Première, after a smear attack by critics. The peaceful demonstration was held on ...5 hours ago
- New Zealand signs deal with Germany on Antarctica cooperation
The memorandum of understanding with Germany's Alfred Wegener Institute is expected to foster cooperation between the two polar science bodies. ...10 hours ago - NZ food safety agency monitoring Indian spice mix recallsNew Zealand Food Safety is monitoring overseas recalls of Indian packaged spice products manufactured by MDH and Everest due to concerns over a cancer-causing pesticide. ...12 hours ago
- Fiji’s media freedom ranking jumps, Papua New Guinea’s plummetsBy Stephen Wright and Stefan Armbruster of BenarNews Fiji’s ranking in a global press freedom index has jumped into the top tier of countries with free or mostly free media after its government last year repealed a draconian law that threatened journalists with prison for doing their jobs. Fiji’s improvement ...15 hours ago
- The Boy in the Water: ‘I just can’t do this anymore’
We might be in Invercargill but all anyone can talk about is Gore. Specifically, Salford Street. That’s where three-year-old Lachlan Jones lived, south of the centre of town, between the A&P Showgrounds and the Mataura River. Roughly 1.2 km away from the single level home he lived in with his ...20 hours ago - 'Data is the new oil': Call to save jobs of data security guardsNew Zealanders' data is at risk with the government's "unintelligent" proposal to cut information security jobs, the Privacy Foundation says. ...21 hours ago
- The Secret Diary of .. Coalition Sheriff LuxonMONDAY I lined up the latest round of civil servants from city hall against the wall, and signalled for the firing squad to drop their rifles. I stepped up onto a wooden crate to look at the office workers in the eye. But that didn’t feel right, so I found ...21 hours ago
- Liam Hewson seeks answers in natureKeen hiker and second-year MSc student Liam Hewson wears two hats when he’s in the great outdoors. “The scientist in me appreciates nature and goes, ‘Oh, there’s that thing and there’s another thing,’ but then the tramper and the outdoorsy person in me thinks, ‘Cool bush.’” Born and bred in ...21 hours ago
- Dan Carter won’t stop kicking
After a long and illustrious career as a goal kicker, Dan Carter’s favourite way to unwind is… kicking goals. Why can’t he get enough of it? And what it’s like to watch him do it for an hour straight? A semicircle of people wielding cameras and phones has formed in ...22 hours ago - ‘Everybody rolls their eyes’: Dame Susan Devoy’s guilty TV pleasureDame Susan Devoy takes us through her life in television, including late night ER debriefs, her proudest CTI moment and the show she watches in secret. Quite aside from her four world champion squash titles, Dame Susan Devoy will likely go down in history as one of the best Celebrity ...22 hours ago
- Dunedin’s secondhand bookshops, ranked and reviewedHera Lindsay Bird reveals the best places in Ōtepoti to score more for your apocalypse-prep book hoard. Sometimes I get the feeling I’ve been killed in a car crash, and this second half of my life is just the brain unspooling itself, like one of those episodes of a hospital ...22 hours ago
- Review: High Country is the ideal crime drama for a cold winter nightThreeNow’s new murder mystery series takes us on a dark, damp journey into the Australian wilderness. This is an excerpt from our weekly pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here. High Country is ThreeNow’s new Australian eight-part crime drama, set in a remote part of the Victorian highlands. It tells ...22 hours ago
- Welcome to The WeekendIntroducing a new way to read The Spinoff every weekend. After nearly 10 years of being an online magazine, we’re finally embracing the weekend liftout. Despite our best efforts to convince you otherwise, writers and editors at The Spinoff don’t work weekend. It is through the sheer power of technology ...22 hours ago
- Tips and tricks for when your therapist looks like your dadTip one: let yourself be nurtured by this big old man. Tip two: don’t ask him to adopt you. So, you’ve arrived at your first session with a new therapist. He tells you to make yourself comfortable and you opt for the tweed armchair, hoping it makes you look like ...22 hours ago
- The Sunday Essay: The books that electrify and consume youI didn’t know books could open you back up; that there were books that stayed with you, where reading was like a chemical event. I knew nothing. The Sunday Essay is made possible thanks to the support of Creative New Zealand. Not too long ago, I was listening to the American ...22 hours ago
- The Enhanced games, where drug use isn’t cheatingFormer Olympic swimmer James Magnussen has already started training for the Enhanced games, though says he won’t start taking performance enhancing substances until about nine months out from the competition. The Australian world champion was the first athlete to be announced by Enhanced, but he says the organisation has had ...22 hours ago
- Short story: The boat in the shed, by Kyle MewburnEveryone thinks he’s dead. Every day they expect his body to be washed up along the coast. Most likely up Karitane way, the way the tide’s running. But nobody’ll be too surprised if his body’s never found. Even in death he wouldn’t have wished for such attention. He would have ...22 hours ago
- USP Council votes to bring controversial VC back to FijiCouncil members voted 21 to 4 in favour of Ahluwalia returning to the Laucala campus following a much-awaited meeting in Vanuatu this week. It comes as USP and its two unions — the Association of the University of the South Pacific Staff (AUSPS) and the Administration and Support Staff Union ...1 day ago
- Public health expert urges govt to focus on disease preventionThe government needs to step up in the wake of a report showing a third of Kiwis have unmet health needs, Professor Boyd Swinburn says. ...1 day ago
- Figures like Andrew Tate may help spread misogyny. But they’re amplifying – not causing – the ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicola Henry, Professor & Australian Research Council Future Fellow, Social and Global Studies Centre, RMIT University Shutterstock Following an emergency meeting of the National Cabinet this week, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced a raft of measures to tackle the problem ...1 day ago
- Free speech debate back on as Victoria University expands diversity on panelA perceived right-wing bias and concerns about panellist diversity have pushed Victoria University to reformat its debate. ...1 day ago
- Week in Politics: Polls, pay rises and a Green MP in troubleAnalysis - A poll showing the opposition is more popular than the government raises questions, politicians go through their 'trial by pay rise' and a Green MP loses her cool in the debating chamber. ...1 day ago
- Māori win customary title over Tokomaru Bay on East CoastThe entire stretch of Tokomaru Bay on the East Coast will be subject to a joint customary marine title for two hapū, and extending up to four miles out to sea. A High Court judge has found the two groups, who during the case settled a dispute over boundaries for ...1 day ago
- Universal’s music is returning to TikTok, ending a spat that hurt fans more than anyoneSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Hall, Lecturer, Media & Cultural Studies, Edith Cowan University A longstanding feud between TikTok and Universal Music Group seems to have finally reached an end, with both parties signing a deal that will see Universal-backed music returned to the social media ...1 day ago
- To tackle gendered violence, we also need to look at drugs, trauma and mental healthSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Siobhan O’Dean, Postdoctoral Research Associate, The Matilda Centre for Research in Mental Health and Substance Use, University of Sydney After several highly publicised alleged murders of women in Australia, the Albanese government this week pledged more than A$925 million over five years ...1 day ago
- National raised $10.4m in donations in 2023Political parties have now fully disclosed the donations they received last year - with National getting more than double the cash of any other party. ...1 day ago
- Don't 'mistake' Pacific leaders 'quietness' on AUKUS as support for NZ'...A Pacific regionalism expert has called out New Zealand's Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters for withholding information from the public on AUKUS military pact. ...1 day ago
- Florist says Julie Anne Genter exchange was 'massive imbalance of power'The Wellington woman says she felt degraded and humiliated after being confronted by the Green MP. ...1 day ago
- China’s new Moon mission is about to launch, and it’s a rare example of countries working togeth...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard de Grijs, Professor of Astrophysics, Macquarie University Bruno Scramgnon/Pexels All systems are “go” for tonight’s launch of China’s next step in a carefully planned lunar exploration program. Placed on top of a powerful Long March 5 rocket, the Chang’e 6 ...1 day ago
- National returned $200,000 donation day after Newsroom storyNational returned a massive donation the day after a Newsroom story linked the donors to a property being investigated for operating unlawfully as a migrant workers’ hostel. The party’s 2023 donation filings, released on Friday, show it returned a $200,000 donation from Buen Holdings on August 23. That was the ...1 day ago
- NZ slumps to 19th as RSF says press freedom threatened by global declinePacific Media Watch New Zealand has slumped to an unprecedented 19th place in the annual Reporters Without Borders World Press Freedom Index survey released today on World Press Freedom Day — May 3. This was a drop of six places from 13th last year when it slipped out of its ...1 day ago
- Access to documents about Australia’s political history is fraught and inadequate. It needs to cha...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joshua Black, Political Historian and Administrator Officer, Australian Historical Association, Australian National University Australia has had its fair share of public record-keeping controversies in recent years. Some have been mere farce, as in the case of two formerly government-owned filing cabinets (containing ...2 days ago
- Greens have 'historically bad' start to the year – political scientistThe party has had faced a challenging set of circumstances over the past five months, Lara Greaves says. ...2 days ago
- HWPL Calls For Peace Amid Rising Tensions Between Israel And Iran
Heavenly Culture, World Peace, Restoration of Light (HWPL), a United Nations-affiliated organization dedicated to fostering peace through civilian-led initiatives, has issued a statement in response to the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. ...2 days ago - The Friday Poem: ‘Mātou’ by Tessa KeenanA poem by Tessa Keenan, from AUP New Poets 10. Mātou These days we are a photograph; one of a farm strewn with cows that used to be bright harakeke or swamp. The kids point at it and say the sun sits behind a smudge (left by someone at Christmas); ...2 days ago
- The Unity Books bestseller chart for the week ending May 3The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington. AUCKLAND 1 Small Things Like These by Claire Keegan (Faber & Faber, $25) The masterful Irish writer ...2 days ago
- Marriages, Civil Unions, And Divorces: Year Ended Dec 2023Marriage and civil union statistics record the number of marriages and civil unions registered in New Zealand each year, and divorce statistics record the number of divorces granted in New Zealand each year. Key facts Marriages and civil unions In ...2 days ago
- Marriages, Civil Unions, And Divorces: Year Ended December 2023Marriage and civil union statistics record the number of marriages and civil unions registered in New Zealand each year, and divorce statistics record the number of divorces granted in New Zealand each year. ...2 days ago
- How effective are domestic violence advertising campaigns for preventing violence against women?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Waller, Associate Professor, University of Technology Sydney shutterstock Cristina RasoBoluda/Shutterstock Domestic violence is a significant personal, community and social issue attracting much attention. After several recent horrific cases, media discussion, calls for a royal commission to end the violence and ...2 days ago
- Taiwan is experiencing millions of cyberattacks every day. The world should be paying attentionSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lennon Y.C. Chang, Associate Professor of Cyber Risk and Policy, Deakin University Taiwan stands out as a beacon of democracy, innovation and resilience in an increasingly autocratic region. But this is under growing threat. In recent years, China has used a variety ...2 days ago
- ‘There was life in the old girl yet’: Dame Susan Devoy on taking reality TV by stormIn this excerpt from her new memoir, Dame Susan Devoy remembers her turn as star contestant on the 2022 season of Celebrity Treasure Island. The most anxious time of every day was pre-elimination, when you knew this could be your final day on the show. I felt such contradictory emotions, ...2 days ago
- Auditor-General criticises way University of Waikato contracted Steven JoyceJohn Ryan says the University of Waikato did not invite multiple contractors and reached out to the former finance minister directly. ...2 days ago
- 'Not my first legal rodeo' – Winston Peters on defamation threatForeign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says he will not be cowed by threats of legal action, having received a legal letter from Bob Carr. ...2 days ago
- Can the Green Party’s holy mission survive its fallible disciples?A week that began in triumph ended in an all-too-familiar disaster for the Green Party. Duncan Greive asks if there’s something in the mission that breaks its best and brightest. A long, strange week for the Green party began with a fantastic poll result. On one level this is hardly ...2 days ago
- Vanuatu’s Kalsakau resigns, calls for delay on constitutional referendumBy Lydia Lewis, RNZ Pacific journalist Vanuatu’s former prime minister and opposition MP Ishmael Kalsakau has stepped down — just two days after he confirmed he was the rightful opposition leader. Kalsakau, MP for Port Vila, confirmed to ABC’s Pacific Beat, and the Vanuatu Daily Post on Thursday that he ...2 days ago
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Good post Ad. Agree entirely with your conclusion in final paragraph. But the chances of this happening under the rabble just elected are minimal.
Let's hope it is a one-term government…..or less.
Actually fifty years since 1973
Validates my decision to go Hybrid in Nov and collect the CCD before the Nat's killed it.
Ta
The reason why the Yanks aren't to worried about oil & gas atm, is because they are largely self efficient due to fracking in the USA & Canada.
But the flip side to this, is the other Economies that are still reliant POL for not only its Economic Security but also the world's economic development EU, Japan, Sth Korea, India before even look at the likes Of Oz or little old NZ which probably has more to lose than anyone else atm.
Ie- distance to & from NZ to export & import goods,
Inflation as costs go up at home & overseas
Costs for goods & services which will feed in Inflation see above LoL.
Interest rates rises could see more defaulters happening across all sectors of NZ's Economy again see above LoL.
The list goes on.
The global neolib system is getting a timely resilience test. Terrorists trying to take out supply lines are just one dimension.
Could be a good idea to shoot the breeze with your local thematic leader…
Have a look at the 'oil' price the past couple of years….you may wish to revaluate your projection.
I already noted the 2023 trading band.
I also cited the current trades.
Go ahead make a point.
The point is quite simply the oil producers have been limiting supply for the past couple of years due to the lack of demand….demand is what sets the price, and the world cannot afford expensive energy (the basis of a modern economy)…the price is the price that can be paid, and the worlds largest supplier (Saudi Arabia) will continue to set the price as high as it can without collapsing demand…with one eye on the cost of fracking.
The price may increase short term but will do what it has done the past couple of years and revert to a sustainable level….they have no choice.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/11/panama-canal-drought-moves-maersk-to-start-using-land-bridge-for-cargo.html
The other passages is having issues aswell
It would be wise for consumer nation states and corporate suppliers this side of the Suez to increase the level of reserves/storage capacity/contingency because of longer shipping times.
As for oil, the risk is to Persian Gulf supply itself, which means planning for lower levels of dependence on that source (working with suppliers to diversify). But in the short term also partnering with corporate suppliers to ensure greater reserves.
This touches on one of my pet peeves, the closure of Marsden Point.
I had a wee look at this below, time and time again it mentions a low likelihood but high consequence event causing a stoppage of imports. (Covid casts a long shadow over the advice.)
https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/17733-fuel-supply-resilience-without-a-domestic-oil-refinery-proactiverelease-pdf
At the crux of these problems, and most other of our problems, is this globalist, market driven ideology.
Refinery NZ is/was a private company with shareholders. Shareholders get twitchy because of their returns being diminished. They aren't interested in national resilience, they are reluctant to spend $ on the necessary upgrades and maintenance.
There is talk of CC emissions in the report. Typical doublespeak (or some other Orwellian term), closing the refinery doesn't impact global emissions but does lower Aotearoa emissions by " 0.75 and 1.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-e) each year." It's just they appear on another nations balance sheet. We will have to pay for that but no mention of that cost in the report.
I was surprised to learn how big a part Marsden Point played in our supply. "In the years immediately before 2020, Refining NZ supplied about 65 to 70 per cent of New Zealand’s total demand for refined fuels, and 100 per cent of its jet fuel."
This is without considering the impact on the Northland economy and the specialised jobs that were lost.
It was surprising to learn how big a part the refinery played in our fuel make up. "In the years immediately before 2020, Refining NZ supplied about 65 to 70 per cent of New Zealand’s total demand for refined fuels, and 100 per cent of its jet fuel. "
NZ needs to get more resilient in respect to the nature of it's imports, ie, developing the pharmaceutical industry etc.
These are issues that seem beyond the imagination and ability of our political masters of all stripes and the public service.
Hey, neo liberals gotta neo liberal.
This touches on one of my pet peeves, the closure of Marsden Point.
I had a wee look at this below, time and time again it mentions a low likelihood but high consequence event causing a stoppage of imports. (Covid casts a long shadow over the advice.)
https://www.mbie.govt.nz/dmsdocument/17733-fuel-supply-resilience-without-a-domestic-oil-refinery-proactiverelease-pdf
At the crux of these problems, and most other of our problems, is this globalist, market driven ideology.
Refinery NZ is/was a private company with shareholders. Shareholders get twitchy because of their returns being diminished. They aren;t interested in national resilience, they are reluctant to spend $ on the necessary upgrades and maintenance.
There is talk of CC emissions in the report. Typical doublespeak (or some other Orwellian term), closing the refinery doesn't impact global emissions but does lower Aotearoa emissions by "0.75 and 1.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-e) each year." It's just they appear on another nations balance sheet. We will have to pay for that but no mention of that cost in the report.
I was surprised to learn how big a part Marsden Point played in our supply. "In the years immediately before 2020, Refining NZ supplied about 65 to 70 per cent of New Zealand's total demand for refined fuels, and 100 per cent of its jet fuel."
This is without considering the impact on the Northland economy and the specialised jobs that were lost.
It was surprising to learn how big a part the refinery played in our fuel make up. "In the years immediately before 2020, Refining NZ supplied about 65 to 70 per cent of New Zealand's total demand for refined fuels, and 100 per cent of its jet fuel. "
NZ needs to get more resilient in respect to the nature of it's imports, ie, developing the pharmaceutical industry etc.
These are issues that seem beyond the imagination and ability of our political masters of all stripes and the public service.
Hey, neo liberals gotta neo liberal.
Edit; The comments section of this Stuff article are worth a peruse,
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125650659/closure-of-marsden-point-oil-refinery-set-to-cost-240-jobs
Sure, instead heavy trucks on roads, limited coastal shipping – concerns about commitment to Kiwi Rail and fast efficient movement of goods by rail between the two islands.
Inflation is going to kill the any economic resurgence National will do there austerity thing and create more poverty and social breakdown.
Inflation is going to kill the any economic resurgence National will do there austerity thing and create more poverty and social breakdown.
What will National do, nothing except exasperate the situation
This would be a good time for house building not going to happen.
Fix the fing ferries not going to happen electrify the entire rail system not going to happen.
Add value to Agriculture in a huge revamp so we are not dependent on heavy low value exports as Shipping will be way more expensive.
Import substitution not going to happen
Reduce dependence on Oil
Not going to happen.
NactNZfirst coalition is going to be a disaster.
The electrified main trunk bisected my farm, I don't recall seeing a single train actually useing the wires , big diesels roaring by is what I see.
Import substitution is an idiotic policy especially for a smallish country like NZ
Weren't we meant to have hit "Peak oil" about 5 years ago?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2022/11/30/peak-oil-the-perennial-prophecy-that-went-wrong/?sh=701c49bf2bbe
When oil prices spike up the coalition government will say its not their fault for the higher pump prices, exactly the opposite of what they were saying a year.
Also interesting how the exceptionally low recent lamb and mutton prices have gone by without a murmur from the farmers, who must be really suffering from the low gate prices, seeing as when prices were double what they are now the sheep farmers still complained they weren't making any money.
When its National in power and their prices drop they shrug their shoulders, blame the weather and just carry on. When its Labour in power they blame the government and drive their tractors into town.
Unfortunately, Treacherous swine have closed our only oil refinery permanently. It has been destroyed, not mothballed.
If we had a nationalized refining company, we could be importing cheap Russian crude, refining it and raising the lifestyles of all NZer's.
But no, thanks to the efforts of the great traitor Douglas, Richardson and Co, the Commons were gutted!