The Tide is High

Written By: - Date published: 6:39 pm, November 15th, 2015 - 91 comments
Categories: Andrew Little, crosby textor, democratic participation, election 2017, greens, john key, labour, leadership, national, Politics - Tags: , , ,

I’m pleased about the Roy Morgan result. The last time the All Blacks won a World Cup it was worth 2-3% in the polls to National. Enough to get them over the line in 2011 election, in fact. This RWC … nothing. In fact, less than nothing; a one percent drop.

Perhaps its because Andrew Little showed Key up by paying for his own trip to the UK for the finals. Perhaps it’s because the PM’s usual matey relationship with our leading rugby players seems to have lost its lustre. Perhaps it’s just that Kiwis are getting tired of endless diversions and their interest in Key is, ahem, flagging.

Now, polls change all the time and the next one from Roy Morgan will say something different, I’m sure. But it’s encouraging that the Greens and Labour have taken support off National at a time when they should be riding high.

According to my wise fellow Standardista Ad, here’s why Labour are currently looking good:

 

Labour does not now have visible internal fights that are leaked to the media.

Labour does not have a caucus that is obviously divided and attacks its leaders from within.

Labour has finished with its new leadership-choosing process for a while.

Labour now has a leader that can deliver a coherent speech.

Labour actually has MPs who can sustain reasonable headlines.

Labour can hold a conference in which the Members and MPs leave encouraged.

 

Yep! While cowards flinch and traitors sneer, we’ll keep the red flag flying here. However, I guess the media’s pet Blairites will keep attacking the party from the right and no doubt social media’s Red Guard will keep poking the party with the blunt sticks of irrelevance from the left.

Sadly, it appears the days of class conscious voting are behind us and our democracy relies on appealing to the unappealing middle. But a Labour led Government, no matter how imperfect, remains a better option for the majority of us. It’s up to all of us to help make that happen, whichever one of the three potential coalition parties we prefer.

As Ad pointed out in the comment linked to above, the tide ran out on Clark surprisingly quickly when it started to move. This week’s astonishingly cringeworthy attack on the brave women of the Labour and Greens’ caucus may prove to be Key’s red mist peak. We’re used to Key embarrassing us at home and internationally, but this is something different. It was an emotional misfire, factually wrong and compounded by his henchman in the chair punishing the women who had the temerity to speak up.

Frankly, guys, if women want to tell us their stories of abuse, then the right response from the men in the room is to shut the fuck up and listen.

Key doesn’t get it, Carter doesn’t get it, righty bloggers will never get it. But I trust women voters do get it.

And here’s the point; Helen Clark won three elections anchored on the solid support of women voters. Key has taken a stance which directly challenges his own reasonably high popularity with the same voters. His mildly pervy hair pulling fixation was a weird look, but shouting down actual victims of abuse, while trying to portray himself as being hard done by is sick making. And don’t be surprised if we see a few articles in the women’s mags and the likes of North and South over the next few weeks as those brave MP’s tell their stories. By the way, if anyone doubts what women politicians are capable of when they work together, here’s what clever, cooperative and strong leadership can do.

One of the reasons I like the Roy Morgan polls is because of their volatility. For mine, I reckon they accurately reflect the fluctuations of the voter’s mindset. People’s opinions change all the time. However, it only takes an issue that is personally felt for a voter to go off a party long term or to embrace a party they haven’t recently supported. If National have missed out on the RWC bounce and appear to have a ranting, misogynist fool as a leader, things are not going to plan for them.

Key warned his MP’s about third term arrogance. He probably should have warned himself, too.

As the song says, the tide is high, but I’m holdin’ on.

 

 

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91 comments on “The Tide is High ”

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  1. BM 1
    15 November 2015 at 7:05 pm

    So, what would you say if the next couple of polls had National on 55%+ and Labour on 25% or below?

    Also, don’t make the mistake of thinking all women think the same.

    • weka 1.1
      15 November 2015 at 7:10 pm

      what would you say if kiwis flew past the window?

    • Atiawa 1.2
      15 November 2015 at 7:22 pm

      I was wrong!
      But I don’t believe that will be the case.
      Andrew Little is a clever man and he will fast become an even smarter politician. He will continue to gain in popularity by concentrating and building policies around things that matter for NZer’s – jobs, incomes, housing, health & education and our grand childrens future’s. Labours bread & butter.
      He will also need to innocculate himself against the fluff attacks, i.e. he doesn’t have an electoral seat. By the way, he needs a safe one.
      Key and his Government will do the rest.

    • JNZ 1.3
      16 November 2015 at 7:30 am

      Indeed, in fact Michelle Boag, by all evidence a woman, thinks MPs sharing their abuse stories is poor form because..

      “Boag said most women she knew had been the victims of sexual assault “in some way”, but did not get the opportunity to share their experiences publicly.

      “Every other woman in New Zealand in New Zealand who’s been the subject of a sexual assault doesn’t get the opportunity to do that.””

      Does she, by any chance, MISS THE WHOLE POINT?

      http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/74006095/mps-who-shared-sexual-assault-stories-paraded-their-victimhood–michelle-boag

  2. weka 2
    15 November 2015 at 7:15 pm

    I’m in general agreement about the potential impact of what happened in parliament last week, although I’m not so sure it will translate into a shift in the polls. More likely it will add to the growing discomfit with Key and his misogyny even where people don’t use that language. If he lasts until 2017 I think by then there will be too many of these kinds of incidents and people will be ready for a change.

    Yep! While cowards flinch and traitors sneer, we’ll keep the red flag flying here. However, I guess the media’s pet Blairites will keep attacking the party from the right and no doubt social media’s Red Guard will keep poking the party with the blunt sticks of irrelevance from the left.

    Sadly, it appears the days of class conscious voting are behind us and are democracy relies on appealing to the unappealing middle. But a Labour led Government, no matter how imperfect, remains a better option for the majority of us. It’s up to all of us to help make that happen, whichever one of the three potential coalition parties we prefer.

    That, however, is the same macho politics that Key practices. If you want everyone to make that happen, it would pay not to insult and dismiss your allies or the people upon whom you depend.

  3. sabine 3
    15 November 2015 at 7:17 pm

    i guess it would depend, if Key did a few good things and unemployment went down or something than obviously it would be said in the next poll that that was a contributing factor for his good numbers. And obviously Labour did it too. IF he fucks up and his number go down, then it would be said in the next poll that that was a contributing factor. And obviously Labour did it too.

    as for your little outburst at the end.
    have you got no shame?

  4. Cricklewood 4
    15 November 2015 at 7:17 pm

    Yep the tide is high alright…. it’s been high for how many years now?

    • BM 4.1
      15 November 2015 at 7:21 pm

      After the Paris terrorist attacks , the chances of a king tide look very likely.

      • sabine 4.1.1
        15 November 2015 at 7:42 pm

        vultures.

        • BM 4.1.1.1
          15 November 2015 at 8:02 pm

          Vultures?

          Pubic perception is
          Labour = all about crims/Muslims and other minorities.
          National = solidity,law and order.

          These sort of events heavily favor the right.

          • mickysavage 4.1.1.1.1
            15 November 2015 at 8:11 pm

            Hey BM what about the reality? Or does that not matter?

            Besides the perception is

            Key = misogynist who will accuse women who have been sexually assaulted of supporting rapists.
            Labour = at least Kelvin was willing to stand up
            National = incompetent and they will do anything to retain power.

            Think again. High tide is on us.

          • sabine 4.1.1.1.2
            15 November 2015 at 8:13 pm

            do you really believe this? are you happy to live with this.

          • Smilin 4.1.1.1.3
            16 November 2015 at 1:14 am

            Its emotive crap on Keys part and hides the real issue that we should as a nation protest Australyars appalling incarceration conditions and laws relating to offenders in that country to the UN Key was probably told by Turnbull dont go there
            Marama Fox explained it really well on the NATION this weekend

          • Murray Simmonds 4.1.1.1.4
            16 November 2015 at 4:34 am

            Any evidence to back up your utterly absurd propositions BM? Or perhaps you don’t “do” evidence?

            Nor logic, nor reason, for that matter.

            Just splash out inanely in the hope that someone might be silly enough to listen.

      • b waghorn 4.1.2
        15 November 2015 at 9:24 pm

        Unfortunately you are probably right ,key will use this to to his own ends , Little needs to have a very strong clear message backing action because as much as Isis was created by western intervention it needs to be stopped.

  5. Ad 5
    15 November 2015 at 8:02 pm

    Cheers TRP.

    I quite liked being wrong about the Conference.

    And also particularly enjoying the consistent hits from Davis and Twyford. Always a good sign in politics when you start getting consistently lucky.

  6. Ad 6
    15 November 2015 at 8:09 pm

    You read new New Zealanders all wrong BM. Maybe it works for you 75+ Talkback types. Fortunately they are dying out faster then Fox News viewers.

    The reason the media broke hard against Key over his Parliamentary behavior last week is that it smelled like cutting against a cardinal New Zealand value: don’t divide us from each other.

    Public perception in Auckland at least is that our intergenerational tolerance and “super diversity” makes us the least susceptible nation in the world to terrorism of any kind.

    The Prime Minister is instead dividing himself from New Zealand.
    If he’s not careful he’ll go down with it. So dumb.

    TRP THIS was a response to BM, not a separate string, please.

    • BM 6.1
      15 November 2015 at 8:22 pm

      Lol, I’ve never listened to talkback and I’m a few decades off 75.

      Thing is when you boil it down , the perception is National pro law and order,Labour all about the crims.

      True or false, this is how middle NZ sees it, which is probably a hang over from the Clark years and it’s something Little needs to consider before he heads down certain tangents.

      • dv 6.1.1
        15 November 2015 at 8:30 pm

        nal pro law and order

        Oh really.
        What about the prominent northlander?

      • sabine 6.1.2
        15 November 2015 at 8:42 pm

        No BM, the perception of the public is not how you describe it. This is the perception that National would like to sell to the public. And with a certain segment of the population you will get your way for a while. How long it will last? Who knows. Who cares, it is in the end only the poll in 2017 that counts, unless of course we would somehow have an early election or no election.

        The saddest part in all of this BM, is that your Party and your Leader is so devoid of ideas and plans for this country that all he has to cling too is a resentment fuelled by ignorance and fear against muslims anywhere – and also those that look like them, or maybe just associate, that hopefully will allow him to pretend to carry a pair and send NZ troops to war and have you and me pay for it. War, that is your path to popularity and power? Not peace and prosperity but war. How utterly craven and pathetic.

      • Ad 6.1.3
        15 November 2015 at 8:43 pm

        That’s only true in pretty narrow sectors, such as within the Police Force and armed forces. I have not heard or seen it generally.

        If you’re not in touch with talkback radio – who I listed to every day for precisely this purpose – you’re not in touch with middle New Zealand.

      • Hanswurst 6.1.4
        15 November 2015 at 8:45 pm

        Lol, I’ve never listened to talkback and I’m a few decades off 75.

        … and you think that casts your posts in a better light?

      • Tricledrown 6.1.5
        15 November 2015 at 11:45 pm

        Two prominent ex National MP’s have name suppression for similar offences.
        5 sitting MPs have name suppression

      • Smilin 6.1.6
        16 November 2015 at 1:24 am

        “Thing is when you boil it down , the perception is National pro law and order,Labour all about the crims.”

        It might be true so we all need a reality check then
        Ignorance of NZers being smarter than that is no saviour 4 you thats for you of a large airy head to think about

      • Expat 6.1.7
        16 November 2015 at 5:28 pm

        If the Nat’s are so pro law and order, then you might want to explain to me why the street that I’ve lived in for 16 yrs. has had a break-in and theft to every house, some twice, in the last two years. Law and ORDER is a fallacy of your imagination, the number of criminal activities in NZ now is more than double, maybe triple, of what it was under the previous govt, and the root cause?
        400,000 looking for work.
        Its pretty clear that there are two policy failures here, law and order and economic incompetence, talking up law and order does not make it a reality.
        “Labour are all about crims” if this a reference to the detainees, then you must have missed the boat, they don’t support criminal activities like the Nat’s, they support the concept of HUMAN RIGHTS, some thing that the Nat’s seem not to support.

  7. Saarbo 7
    15 November 2015 at 8:20 pm

    Hear, hear TRP.

  8. Tory 8
    15 November 2015 at 8:27 pm

    So rather than say the Labour Conference resulted in no traction for Labour the poll is dictated by the RWC? Wake up you wankers.

    • te reo putake 8.1
      15 November 2015 at 8:53 pm

      The polling period was October 26 – November 8, 2015, Tory. So starting just after the French semi final, taking in the final itself and finishing just after the homecoming parades, but before the Labour party conference.

      Who’s the tosser now?

      • Tory 8.1.1
        15 November 2015 at 10:27 pm

        The conference was the 6 ~8 November, as usual you are trying to take the shit from the left and roll it in glitter.

        • Muttonbird 8.1.1.1
          15 November 2015 at 10:34 pm

          You sound worried, darling.

        • te reo putake 8.1.1.2
          15 November 2015 at 10:35 pm

          Dude, your ignorance is charming. It’s a two week polling period. The leader’s speech was on Sunday arvo and made the news at 6pm that night. It’s possible some people were polled later on the Sunday, but, nah, not really. The LP conference’s influence on this poll is sweet FA.

          The point is that the polling period perfectly mirrored the RWC finals period, yet Key got nothing out of it despite humping Richies leg like a randy border collie whenever the media were about. The old black magic ain’t working for Key no more. Shame, eh?

    • Anno1701 8.2
      16 November 2015 at 2:53 pm

      “Wake up you wankers.”

      crikey !

    • Expat 8.3
      16 November 2015 at 5:35 pm

      Tory, “Wake up you wankers” is what the rest of the world is saying to all NZ’ers, cause if you don’t wake up soon your economy will never recover.

  9. Pat 9
    15 November 2015 at 8:41 pm

    Given that Key has consistently portrayed an anti women sentiment, the far right are reportedly disenchanted with him and his frequent faux pas…add in a Cabinet of of underperformers and a complete lack of policy and one has to wonder which demographic is providing all this support ?….there arnt that many farmers,
    small businessMEN and contractors out there.

  10. Colonial Viper 10
    15 November 2015 at 8:56 pm

    well, this is an upbeat way of looking at numbers which show that National + MP would have a majority of 4 or 5 in the House, sitting 3.5% ahead of LAB + GR + NZF.

    Also worth remembering that the RWC in 2011 was a major local event throughout NZ, in the same time zone.

    • te reo putake 10.1
      15 November 2015 at 9:09 pm

      It was a major local event here in NZ, CV. They even changed the law so we could watch the games with a beer in our hands. Then, in the last week of polling we had ‘local events’ in the main centres; the parades. Plus an overload of media stories about AB’s taking the cup to schools, hospitals and cemeteries. The polling period was utterly dominated by the RWC.

      The total for the opposition is 2 points better than the actual result at the election. Not a huge shift, but definitely in the too close to call category. And, as the post points out, the poll was at a time when Captain Key should be riding high on the back of the rugby result. And he’s not. What gives?

      • Brutus Iscariot 10.1.1
        16 November 2015 at 9:55 am

        I’d say 49% still classifies as “riding high”.

        The only inexplicable thing is that there are some so punch drunk that they will try to make a silk purse out of this woeful poll.

        Saying Key is in trouble as he hasn’t quite managed to scrape over 50% shows just how far standards and expectations have slipped.

        • Daniel Cale 10.1.1.1
          16 November 2015 at 5:26 pm

          It’s leftist desperation narrative. There is no guarantee a Labour/Greens/NZF arrangement could even be put together, let alone function, yet that’s the desperate hope the left clings to. It’s sad really.

          • One Anonymous Bloke 10.1.1.1.1
            16 November 2015 at 5:35 pm

            Yes! The 2005 – 2008 government never happened! Desperate!

            • Daniel Cale 10.1.1.1.1.1
              16 November 2015 at 6:27 pm

              The 2005 – 2008 government was a co-oalition between Labour and the progressives, who no longer exist. NZF’s involvement was only in a confidence and supply agreement. The Greens only formal involvement was an agreement to abstain on confidence and supply. Labour won 41% of the vote to Nationals 39%.

              To govern today, Labour would need a formal coalition of Labour, Greens, NZF and the Maori Parties (based on the latest RM). It isn’t going to happen.

              • te reo putake …
                16 November 2015 at 7:02 pm

                “To govern today, Labour would need a formal coalition of Labour, Greens, NZF and the Maori Parties (based on the latest RM). It isn’t going to happen.”

                Nope. Helen Clark had three different arrangements and while I’m sure NZ First’s bottom line is a coalition, the Greens might be perfectly happy with some policy gains in exchange for support on C&S.

                Glad you mentioned the Maori party. I wouldn’t be surprised if they opted for Labour, if Labour was in a position to form a government. Having a seat at the cabinet table is vital for their future prospects. And Labour have more in common with what the MP claim to want to achieve, so why not?

                • Daniel Cale …
                  16 November 2015 at 8:34 pm

                  “Nope. Helen Clark had three different arrangements…”
                  Because she had a lot more votes than does Labour today.

                  “and while I’m sure NZ First’s bottom line is a coalition, the Greens might be perfectly happy with some policy gains in exchange for support on C&S.”
                  Wouldn’t work. Labour don’t have the numbers to govern that way. If support was on a C&S basis only, nothing would pass. Governing would come to a standstill.

                  You forget there is a huge difference between the numbers the Clark Government enjoyed and what Labour have today. You also forget that the Greens have been shafted by Labour before. I doubt very much they would accept anything other than a full coalition deal, and why should they?

                  • te reo putake …
                    16 November 2015 at 11:09 pm

                    The amount of Labour votes made no difference. HC stitched together three different coalitions on three different LP party votes and the important thing is that she lead each one. She made the best of the hand she was dealt. Andrew Little has two decades in the union movement putting deals together, often between unwilling partners. If there’s a progressive government to be formed, he’ll find a way.

              • One Anonymous Bloke …
                16 November 2015 at 8:13 pm

                I note that the Greens, Labour and NZ1st worked together, and that you’ve gone from “doubting” it to acknowledging it while flailing around with some goalposts.

                Why are so many Tories liars? I think it’s their complete lack of personal responsibility.

                • Daniel Cale …
                  16 November 2015 at 8:37 pm

                  “I note that the Greens, Labour and NZ1st worked together,”
                  When Labour had far higher support than today.

                  “you’ve gone from “doubting” it to acknowledging it while flailing around with some goalposts.”
                  No, still doubt it. The 2005-2008 government looked nothing like the position today.

                  Labour is in no position to dictate any arrangement, as it was then. Labour could not govern with under 30% with only C&S support.

                  • Daniel Cale …
                    16 November 2015 at 8:47 pm

                    Here’s some proof of what I’m saying:

                    Labour’s % of Vote:

                    2002 41%
                    2005 41%
                    2008 34%
                    2011 27%
                    2014 25%

                    Labour’s results have been a train smash. In the latest RM poll, a three headed coalition including Labour, Greens, NZF still cannot govern without the Maori Party.

                    Today is nothing like 2005.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke …
                      16 November 2015 at 8:57 pm

                      That’s right: we’re 2 years out from an election. What was National polling in 2003?

                      So much for wingnuts bearing “proof”.

      • Tracey 10.1.2
        16 November 2015 at 7:21 pm

        Finny how quickly they changed the law for 5am drinking but Amy Adams has taken over 6 months so far to try and pass laws protecting us all from the evil coming our way from Australia?

  11. Cowboy 11
    15 November 2015 at 9:26 pm

    Hey Pat, farmers are people too! We are not all incapable of independent thought.

    For my 2 cents worth, as a soon to be ex national party member, is that this is indeed the turning point for this administration. The Labour conference last week was important because swinging voters need to see a viable alternative. The first step in that is to have a leader who is supported by the party. That box now has been ticked apparently. I add to that James Shaw who has impressed me greatly in his short time as Greens co leader and I think will not frighten the horses of the great mass of centre voters. It will certainly help that the easily vilified Kim Dotcom and co are not in the picture as either.

    Secondly, Key overstepped the mark badly last week. I have been increasingly uneasy about his character and demeanour going back to before the last election. Dirty Politics, bridge bribes, Saudi sheep deals (and cover ups) etc, however I think for many the events of last week may well be the tipping point. Most Kiwi’s are pretty fair minded and we can see when our own are not being treated well, no matter how unsavoury their past. We have always taken pride in our adherence to international convention and our willingness to call out any country that doesn’t. When Peter Dunne is calling Key out for “chin dripping subservience” you know things are dire.

    No right thinking individual, especially one that holds such an esteemed office should have behaved in such a manner and to not be man enough to apologise does not sit well with me. My National party subscription notice will go unopened this year.

    • Anne 11.1
      15 November 2015 at 9:49 pm

      Helen Clark’s parents were Waikato farmers – the heart of National territory. When their daughter joined Labour as a young Uni student her father – a former National Party regional chairman – was horrified. Five to ten years later both parents were also in the Labour Party. And where did Helen get her fierce intelligence from? Her parents of course.

      Good post Cowboy.

      • Craig H 11.1.1
        16 November 2015 at 12:14 am

        Andrew Little also came from National stock, including delivering National pamphlets back in the day for his father…

    • Pat 11.2
      15 November 2015 at 9:55 pm

      Point taken Cowboy….and apologies for stereotyping…my question remains however….where is all the support shown by these polls?…I meet a few public supporters of National (I live in a rural blue ribbon electorate)…very few who will extend that to personal support of Key…and there is definitely a large body unimpressed by Labour but would that always default to National support?….that would require a considerable amount of nose holding .

  12. Jenny Kirk 12
    15 November 2015 at 9:30 pm

    ” And, as the post points out, the poll was at a time when Captain Key should be riding high on the back of the rugby result. And he’s not. What gives? ”

    Maybe, just maybe, the general public are getting sick of the fawning, sycophantic antics of the PM. Wouldn’t trust that to luck though. Must be something else. But what? It couldn’t possibly be that Labour is starting to look like a credible Opposition at last, could it?

    And to te reo putake, I’m holding on too.

    • Stuart Munro 12.1
      16 November 2015 at 12:06 pm

      It might be the one-eyed media. Constantly presenting the authorised Key version, now without the leavening of reality formerly provided by the likes of Campbell Live is just boring. And really hard to believe. Maybe Joyce has scored an own goal.

  13. Cowboy 13
    15 November 2015 at 10:32 pm

    For my part I think the Northland by election was significant. I think NZ first will be increasingly be seen as a viable alternative in the regions for those that can’t bring themselves to vote further left. I sense Winston would love to have the last laugh on Key. Labour have been venturing into NZ first territory recently and as I say the greens look more mainstream with Shaw in the vanguard. There now appears a viable alternate govt emerging. Little just needs to keep building a quiet credibility and get abit better at off the cuff interviews and job done.

  14. Thinking Right 14
    16 November 2015 at 3:30 am

    I think that events in France have overshadowed the drama over detainees.

    The public don’t have a lot of sympathy for the detainees knowing that just about all of them are criminals and public safety is an issue.

    Also I don’t believe that the Public will adversely look at Keys utterances in Parliament as there is no simple connection between what he said and the female MP’s past experiences of abuse – none really at all.

    Key was chastising Davis by saying that he supported the safety of law abiding NZ’ers over what he termed were rapists, murderers etc. in the wider context of crims being expelled from Aussie.

    He possibly went a little overboard in accusing Davis and Labour of supporting rapists etc. however when you consider Davis’ trips over there, his calling Key gutless, and a lack of assurance from Labour that they have any awareness of what will happen when these crims land in NZ, the Public will see Key’s response as nothing more than Political saber rattling.

    How that could then jump to the next day to the female MP’s basically saying that Key insulted them as they (not public knowledge prior to this) had been victims of sexual abuse themselves is beyond me.

    There is no connect and unfortunately the walkout looked exactly as it was, manufactured and an attempt to embarrass Key.

    but that was last weeks news, this week and next probably will be about the killings in France – the left will need to find another barrow to push.

    • ropata 14.1
      16 November 2015 at 5:30 am

      what the fuck. it was not a PR exercise you dork.
      there are real people on Xmas Island whose human rights are being violated EVERY DAY
      and you think it’s all about JK

      the PM is an irrelevant sideshow designed to distract from the real issues

    • Tracey 14.2
      16 November 2015 at 7:22 pm

      Yes Steven

      🙄

  15. Murray Simmonds 15
    16 November 2015 at 5:10 am

    Excellent article Te Reo Putake.

    I get the impression that Key is getting a bit tired of it all. Yes. he enjoys shuffling around on the world stage, basking in the glory of the world leaders that he rubs shoulders with. It all pumps up his ego no end.

    But he may well be acutely aware of the reality that this is all just pomp and circumstance – the world leaders being diplomatic, in effect.

    When he gets home its different. No red carpets or ceremonial troop-inspections. No Royal handshakes or photo-ops. Just the hum-drum of pretending to run the country, by electing to maintain the status quo, at a time when the world calls out for rapid and urgent change.

    And then there’s the necessity of attending parliament.; of fronting up in the House of Representatives. I don’t think he enjoys that at all.

    My guess is that he’ll spend as much time as possible on overseas junkets for much of his remaining term, then he’ll bow out before the next election.

    • Jenny Kirk 15.1
      16 November 2015 at 7:14 am

      And if he’s not on an overseas junket, Murray S, he’ll be conjuring up internal ones.
      Starting with the US Navy arriving to celebrate NZ Navy history. Perhaps another Royal visit. Who haven’t we had lately ?

  16. Puckish Rogue 16
    16 November 2015 at 9:35 am

    So you’re pleased that:

    by itself National has 49%
    or National/MP 51%
    or National/NZF 55% (not that anyone should count on that)

    and that

    Lab/Grn has 41.5%
    or Lab/Grn/NZF 47.5% (not that anyone should count on that)

    Ok cool

    • Crashcart 16.1
      16 November 2015 at 10:16 am

      A sad but fair dose of reality.

      As much as I see what TRP is trying to say I think it is a bit hard to get optomistic about these poll results.

      I am more optomistic about the improvements in Labour itself. Hopefully that will see tangible improvements in the future.

      • Puckish Rogue 16.1.1
        16 November 2015 at 10:26 am

        Of course having said that, if an election was held tomorrow i doubt National would get 49%, more like 43-44%

        • Crashcart 16.1.1.1
          16 November 2015 at 10:41 am

          For sure. I think it would be very much in the hands of Winnie. Not a big fan of that but no matter how much I try to convince my wife otherwise she and many like her will still vote that way.

          They moved away from National but just can’t bring themselves to go all the way to Labour or the Greens. Although she was digusted by last weeks shinanigans.

          • Puckish Rogue 16.1.1.1.1
            16 November 2015 at 10:51 am

            yeah I think its fair to say that Winston probably will decide who gets in and since there are very good reasons for him to go either way no one can really say who he’ll go with

  17. Karen 17
    16 November 2015 at 10:09 am

    I must admit I was a bit disappointed in the Morgan poll, but I agree that the Labour Party conference would have had little impact on the results. By the second weekend pollsters are just looking to make up the numbers – the bulk has already been done.

    However I was pleased to see this impressive speech in the house from Andrew Little from last week. We need more of this to capitalise on the coverage from the conference:

    https://insightnz.wordpress.com/2015/11/15/watch-andrew-little-tear-paula-bennett-to-shreds-in-parliament/

    • Sabine 17.1
      16 November 2015 at 11:42 am

      yes, that was a thing of beauty.

      • The Chairman 17.1.1
        16 November 2015 at 4:01 pm

        The nastiest piece of legislation was a nice touch, but some substance (what Labour would do differently – i.e. a reversal) would have given the address far more beauty.

    • The Chairman 17.2
      16 November 2015 at 2:47 pm

      @ Karen

      From that address can we take Labour will reverse the way WINZ deal with cancer patients?

      And if so, has Little formally announced this planned reversal?

    • Daniel Cale 17.3
      16 November 2015 at 6:32 pm

      Party conferences don’t make a jot of difference these days. There have been claims that Labours conference fired up the delegates, and on this blog everyones getting pumped up about speeches etc but these people vote Labour anyway! No-one else cares.

      • marty mars 17.3.1
        16 November 2015 at 7:14 pm

        do you vote labour and do you care?

      • The Chairman 17.3.2
        17 November 2015 at 7:48 am

        @ Daniel Cale

        They have even less impact when the opposition fails to produce policy that supports the rhetoric.

        Speeches without policy are hollow.

        Right voting cancer patients would care far more if they knew exactly what Labour would do to improve their situation. Little running down Paula and expecting her to apologize does little to change their current circumstances.

  18. Tiger Mountain 18
    16 November 2015 at 11:17 am

    NZ Labour seems like the Bono/U2 of politics at the moment, everyone knows the name, but what ’ave they done lately then eh?

    some things they have not done are; even mention Jeremy Corbyn, or stick by their own 5 point bottom line on the TPPA for a seemly amount of time–like say till the USA ratifies, rejecting the TPP was coincidentally the only policy point that could have united NZ First, Green, Mana and Labour without too many acrobatics heading to 2017

    Labour don’t want to go left, TRP is heh, right, about that at least, waiting for the “Parnell Puller” to go off his game is not exactly a strategy

    despite my jaundiced view of social democracy I do support reforms as long as they drive political as well as economic advancement, such as a massive house building programme and driving back private penetration of the public sector

    • Puckish Rogue 18.1
      16 November 2015 at 11:36 am

      Now now not even NZ Labours as bad as Bono/U2, at least NZ Labour are trying

      (Not sure if its in english)

  19. Clean_power 19
    16 November 2015 at 2:19 pm

    The wishful thinking expressed by TRP, the author of this note, is astonishing.
    Keep up the boundless optimism, while praying at the same time.

    [If you don’t like the posts here, don’t read them. If you wish to admonish the authors of posts or belittle their efforts, your commenting privileges will be swiftly curtailed. And there is no god, so praying won’t save you. TRP]

  20. thechangeling 20
    17 November 2015 at 12:51 pm

    Good to see you back on thestandard.org.nz TRP!

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