2.5C and our choices: the bad news and the good news
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6:10 am, May 9th, 2024 - 10 comments
Categories: climate change -
Tags: 2.5C
The Guardian published a major report yesterday on what top climate scientists are saying about the climate crisis. These are all IPCC scientists.
World’s top climate scientists expect global heating to blast past 1.5C target
There’s a lot of important insight in there, including this critical timeframe (my emphasis),
Hundreds of the world’s leading climate scientists expect global temperatures to rise to at least 2.5C (4.5F) this century, blasting past internationally agreed targets and causing catastrophic consequences for humanity and the planet, an exclusive Guardian survey has revealed.
Almost 80% of the respondents, all from the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), foresee at least 2.5C of global heating above preindustrial levels,, while almost half anticipate at least 3C (5.4F). Only 6% thought the internationally agreed 1.5C (2.7F) limit will be met.
Many of the scientists envisage a “semi-dystopian” future, with famines, conflicts and mass migration, driven by heatwaves, wildfires, floods and storms of an intensity and frequency far beyond those that have already struck.
That’s depressing af, but here’s the thing: they’re talking about the track we are on currently, not the one we could be on if we changed.
For the people still thinking that climate collapse is a maybe in later centuries, what is being said here is that if we don’t change what we are doing, then human societies will fail within the lifetime of people who are alive now.
There’s a big focus in the report on how devastating it is to the scientists that society hasn’t heeded the warnings, and how difficult this is to deal with emotionally. This what many people experience now, but obviously not enough of us. Maybe if we were all taking it personally we would change. So while there is a risk that people will find the report overwhelming and turn away, it does seem like some people still need to be presented with the cold hard facts.
However, the cold hard facts alone is not enough. In my opinion the crucial piece of communication in the report is the following quotes, because without a pathway through to something better, people will just turn away. I suspect a major part of the current backlash around perceived catastrophising is because people simply can’t cope with the reality. Hence the need for this (again, my emphasis),
“The good news is the worst-case scenario is avoidable,” said Michael Meredith, at the British Antarctic Survey. “We still have it in our hands to build a future that is much more benign climatically than the one we are currently on track for.”
…
“I believe in social tipping points,” where small changes in society trigger large-scale climate action, said Elena López-Gunn, at the research company Icatalist in Spain. “Unfortunately, I also believe in physical climate tipping points.”
That’s the crux of it. We are on a knife edge to see whether the social tipping points will outpace the climate tipping points. The thing about social tipping points is that we have choices about which way things tip. This is where our greatest hope lies, but it requires us to be prepared so that when the tipping point arrives, we have the conditions already to tip into the good pathway not the disastrous one.
The bad news is that by the time the physical climate tipping points happen, it’s too late. We can’t say we were not warned.
The climate crisis is the most important thing there is now. Everything we do matters. Both in dropping GHGs fast (avoiding the climate tipping points), but also the million things that turn us in the right direction for the sociopolitical tipping points.
Political activism matters (as does voting), because we really want a Labour/Green/Te Pati Māori government, not a National/NZ First/ACT one, when a tipping point arrives in New Zealand. That might be a big earthquake, a series of extreme weather events, another pandemic, or shocks from a global financial crisis (that btw is why it’s called a polycrisis, all those things sit within the climate crisis and will be affected by it and in turn affect our responses to the climate crisis). Imagine those scenarios under the current government vs a centre left one.
The really good news is that we’ve never had more opportunity to act than we do now. All over the planet, there are a myriad of projects to support or get involved with. In every community in New Zealand, there are initiatives that turn us in the right direction.
At a larger scale, there is really good work being done around alternative systems that enable us to drop GHGs fast and transition to better lifes eg doughnut economics, or degrowth. The trick is being ready to jump and fast. A tipping point will come when it’s possible to change fast, we need to be prepared.
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The Green Party is voicing serious concerns over the Government’s proposal to charge for access to public conservation land, released today. ...7 days ago
- Green Party condemns the passage of Treaty Principles Bill
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Te Tiriti o Waitangi is our country’s founding document. It forms the basis of the relationship between Māori and the Crown – and the Aotearoa New Zealand we live in today. ...1 week ago
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As the hīkoi to Parliament continues, Labour has sent an open letter to Prime Minister Christopher Luxon in a last-ditch attempt to get him to kill the Treaty Principles Bill. ...1 week ago
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The fast-track legislation passing its second reading in Parliament is another step towards environmental ruin. ...1 week ago
- Greens join King’s Counsel in calling for Treaty Principles Bill to be abandoned
The Prime Minister must answer the call from a group of senior lawyers of the King’s Counsel to abandon the divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...1 week ago
- Chris Hipkins’ apology statement to state and faith-based care survivors
...1 week ago
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Today, the Green Party stands alongside the survivors of abuse in state care and faith-based care as the Government issues an historic apology. ...1 week ago
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The Green Party has written to the Speaker of the House requesting he enable a personal vote on the Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
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For tomorrow’s apology to survivors of abuse in state and faith-based care to hold any water, the Government must not pursue the same policies that drove the abuse in the first place. ...2 weeks ago
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The Climate Change Commission’s latest advice indicates Aotearoa needs to be stepping up on climate action. ...2 weeks ago
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Kua hinga te manawa kairākau o Te Rua Tekau Ma Waru Tiwhatiwha te po! Kakarauru i te po! Ka rapuhia kei hea koe kua riro! Haere e te Ika a Whiro ki o tini hoa kua ngaro atu ki te Pō ...2 weeks ago
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The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori call on the Prime Minister to block the Treaty Principle...
The opposition parties stand united for an Aotearoa that honours Te Tiriti, rather than seeking to rewrite it. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are working together against the Government’s divisive Treaty Principles Bill. ...2 weeks ago
- NZ must pursue independent foreign policy
The Green Party says the need is greater than ever for Aotearoa New Zealand to pursue an independent foreign policy. ...2 weeks ago
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The Oranga Tamariki (Responding to Serious Youth Offending) Bill had its first reading at Parliament today. The Bill reaffirms the Government’s commitment to crack down on serious youth offending, Minister for Children Karen Chhour says. “In recent years we have seen an unacceptable spike in youth offending. “This Bill makes ...17 hours ago
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- Better support for victims of sexual violence
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- Government moving forward with Regional Deals
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- MSA pilot participant update
One of the ten young men selected to participate in the Military-Style Academy Pilot has allegedly reoffended. Children’s Minister Karen Chhour is disappointed but says it would be naïve to think that none of these young men would reoffend. “I’m saddened that this young person has not taken this opportunity ...22 hours ago
- Fighting for Kiwis in Trade
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Tēnā koutou katoa – it is a pleasure to be here today. I would like to begin by acknowledging the important leadership role you all play in ensuring a quality health system New Zealanders can trust. There is enormous clinical expertise in this room covering a wide range of disciplines. ...2 days ago
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Tēnā koutou katoa. Mr President, Excellencies, Delegates. New Zealand, and all nations represented here today, are already dealing with the impacts of climate change. Our households, businesses, and economies are bearing the costs of its effects. The choices we make now will shape the severity of these impacts for generations ...2 days ago
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- Gang crackdown begins at stroke of midnight
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- LGFA increases borrowing capacity to support high growth councils
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- Temporary Traffic Management costs revealed
The Government has revealed that over the past three years, the New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) has spent an eyewatering $786 million of taxpayers’ money on road cones and temporary traffic management (TTM), Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“When I became Minister, I was surprised to learn that that NZTA did ...2 days ago
- Jurisdiction of Disputes Tribunal to double
Legislation that will double the financial jurisdiction of the Disputes Tribunal from $30,000 to $60,000 has passed first reading in Parliament today, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith. “We need to improve court timeliness and access to justice so that Kiwis and get on with their lives. Court delays affect everyone, the ...3 days ago
- Protecting New Zealand from foreign interference
Legislation that will specifically criminalise foreign interference and strengthen espionage offences has passed first reading in Parliament today, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “It is normal and appropriate for states to interact and work to influence one another. This encourages cooperation and can have mutually beneficial outcomes. “However, the reality ...3 days ago
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Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed news that the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) Board has approved funding towards pre-implementation and early works on the State Highway 1 (SH1) Belfast to Pegasus Motorway and Woodend Bypass Road of National Significance (RoNS). “Reaching this significant milestone is a reflection of our Government’s ...3 days ago
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With the launch of Fraud Awareness Week, the Government is committing to new coordination efforts across industry and government to combat online scams, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Online financial scams are a growing problem for New Zealand. New data released today shows that Kiwis lost nearly ...4 days ago
- Minister to consider 7AA select committee report
Minister for Children Karen Chhour will consider the recommendations made by the Social Services and Community Committee in its report back to Parliament on the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill. “I want to thank the people who made submissions and those who appeared before the committee in ...4 days ago
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Defence Minister Judith Collins will this week attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus in Vientiane, Laos. “We need to take every opportunity to engage with our international partners, given the increasingly unstable geo-political situation,” Ms Collins says. “New Zealand has a long-standing commitment to this ...4 days ago
- Launching the White Ribbon Ride
The Minister for the Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence, Karen Chhour, was on hand to wish riders well at the start of the North Island leg of the White Ribbon Ride in Whakatāne this morning. The ride helps mark the International Day for the Elimination of Violence against Women, ...5 days ago
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- NZ signs trade deal with Costa Rica, Iceland and Switzerland
Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay has signed a pioneering trade agreement that prioritises New Zealand’s sustainable exports at a ceremony during APEC in Peru today. “The Agreement on Trade and Sustainability (ACCTS), between Costa Rica, Iceland, and Switzerland was concluded in July of this year and opens up significant ...6 days ago
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Five new Aquaculture Settlement Areas will help ensure Ngāi Tahu shares in the opportunities aquaculture offers for Southland’s economy, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. “The Aquaculture Settlement Areas (ASAs) I’m announcing today set aside space so the Crown and Ngāi Tahu can assess their potential for aquaculture development. ...7 days ago
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- Speech to Social Investment Hui: Jack and his whānau need our help
Kia ora koutou katoa. Nau mai, haere mai, piki mai. Ki te mihi atu ahau, ki te manwhenua nei, Te Atiawa, Ngāti toa rangatira, tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou katoa. Thank you, Andy, for your introduction. Let me acknowledge you as the new Chief Executive of the Social Investment ...7 days ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Annette Greenhow, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Law, Bond University Linda George/Shutterstock The ten-year anniversary of the death of much-loved Australian cricketer Phillip Hughes falls on November 27. The 25-year-old’s life was tragically cut short in 2014 when a bouncer ...1 hour ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephanie Gomes-Ng, Senior Lecturer of Psychology, Auckland University of Technology Getty Images Former New Zealand prime minister John Key has three white rabbits painted on his helicopter, a nod to his “massively superstitious” habit of repeating “white rabbits” three times at ...3 hours ago
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Loading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp');Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions.The post Newsroom daily quiz, Friday 22 November appeared first on Newsroom. ...4 hours ago
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Two right wing choices:
1. We could gut NIWA so we can pretend we don’t know, and what we don’t know can’t possibly hurt us, can it?
https://twitter.com/NatlClownshow/status/1788141310211432799
2. Or we could be like NZs richest man: remain oblivious to all the carnage happening all around!
we know that there are people doing stupid and insane shit, how about the pathway Tony?
The point I was making, rather obscurely, I'm afraid, is that until we stop people doing stupid and insane shit, there is no pathway!
Like you, I shudder to think of the CoC in control when the next omnicrisis hits.
The only solution I can think of is political activism.
I'm too old to be arrested (though it might come to that) but I intend to be at every climate protest, if only to swell the numbers!
Me too – well, every local one.
Tbh, our CoC MPs and their backers care only about extracting as much wealth as possible from their Ponzi schemes without alarming a majority of voters. Maybe a few are dreaming that wealth will be a personal shield as civilisation warms spaceship Earth – if only it was that easy.
An equalizer?!!!! Please don't mention that abominable word again.
Social and then political license for shifting CO2 production evaporates faster than the steam from your morning shower when we are in the first week of May and already getting power supply constraint notices from Transpower to the generators.
https://static.transpower.co.nz/public/interfaces/can/CAN%20Low%20Residual%20Situation%205373464415.pdf?VersionId=Z_nNmIoOxvd9sSb2U1rcBoJM2UpGknc.
Our generation system is creaking, and there's real doubt we have prepared.
Just a reminder that about 34,350 homes, mostly in the central North Island, had their electricity cut off without warning on August 9, 2021, when a cold snap coincided with an unplanned outage of Genesis' Tokaanu hydro power station on the Tongariro River.
This is not an excuse for bad climate behaviour, but a simple warning that our lines and generation distribution system that would enable greater change just isn't ready. We would do well to track Transpower's warning systems.
The hydro dams are OK atm, it's just the cold while the wind power generation is low – clam as.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2024/05/kiwis-told-to-reduce-power-on-friday-morning-as-country-facing-shortfall-of-electricity-cold-snap.html
The good 'ol Guardian…one the few remaining supposed pillars of 'Left' liberal leaning news…one that has maintained it's now (rightly) declining reputation over the past decade by publishing great pieces like the one referenced by Weka here…but alas, when an actual political figure or movement emerges, that offers a real life chance to tackle the enormous problems created by our hegemonic Western system of unfettered free market liberalism…the Guardian immediately reveals it actual purpose…that of vicious Guard Dog and Gate Keeper of that very system….just saying.
It is part of the mainstream media. Does a job, plays its part as they all do.
Carving out an existence on Antarctica.
With a blow out 3
bugger me.
Pathway.
Stop please.
If only someone placed a carbon tariff on tradable goods – and ensured an incentive to lower carbon use in production.